GOV/MIL Main "Great Reset" Thread

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Border Patrol Union Leader Warns Of "Complete Control" By Cartels Once 'Title 42' Ends

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 03:00 PM
Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The head of the Border Patrol union warned that drug cartels would seize “complete control” of the southern border, as a Trump-era public health order to expel illegal immigrants is to expire on Monday.

“That we just don’t have anybody in the field, that we just can’t patrol the border,” National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd said during Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom,” after being asked about the “worst-case scenario” once the law ends on May 23.

National Border Patrol Council President Brandon Judd at a border meeting in Del Rio, Texas, on July 18, 2021. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

He said the Border Patrol system is running out of capacity as overwhelmed border agents will be largely held up by processing asylum-seeking illegal immigrants, either refereeing their claims or expelling them back to their home countries.

“When you look right now, we already start our shifts with 50 percent of our resources not even performing enforcement activities. They’re in administrative duties. Once this explodes, we’re going to have nearly 100 percent of our people doing administrative duties rather than enforcement duties.”

“That’s going to give complete control to the cartels. That’s a scary situation to be in,” he added.

Judd was referring to Title 42, a COVID-19-era policy implemented during the Trump administration in March 2020 to quickly expel illegal immigrants on public health grounds. The measure has so far blocked over 1.7 million illegal aliens at the U.S.–Mexico border in the past two years, yet is set to expire on May 23 under President Joe Biden, given that public health conditions have changed.

According to a May 16 court document filing, U.S. border officials encountered more than 234,000 illegal immigrants at the U.S.–Mexico border in April, with 96,908 deported back to Mexico under Title 42.

It topped March’s 22-year high of just over 221,000 illegal immigrants and marked the fourth time that monthly border encounters have topped 200,000 under Biden.

The border crisis “clearly began” the time Biden took office in January 2021, according to Senate Minority Whip Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.). “If he ends Title 42 policies next week, we’re going to need a much taller chart,” he said in a May 18 Twitter post.

“By empowering the Cartels instead of @CBP [Customs and Border Protection], Biden is actively threatening the health and safety of our communities,” said Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), the ranking member on the National Security subcommittee, on May 17.

Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.) said the same day that “only the cartels are happy” about the lift.

The Biden administration has said it is preparing for scenarios of up to 18,000 encounters per day when the order lifts. Both Republicans and moderate Democrats, including those in tough races for November midterms, have warned about the lack of a comprehensive plan to tackle the potential immigrant inflow at the border once Title 42 lifts.

During a visit to the southwest border in the Rio Grande Valley on May 17, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said his department is prepared for the ending of Title 42.

“That does not mean that the border is open beginning on May 23,” Mayorkas said. “We continue to enforce the laws of this country. We continue to remove individuals who do not qualify for relief under the laws of this country.”

The annual deportation has fallen dramatically under Biden. In the financial year 2021, just over 59,011 were deported, compared to about 185,884 in 2020 and 267,258 in 2019, according to data released by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Haitian migrants continue to cross across the U.S.–Mexico border on the Rio Grande as seen from Ciudad Acuña, Coahuila state, Mexico, on Sept. 20, 2021. (Paul Ratje/AFP via Getty Images)

An April Convention of States Action and Trafalgar Group poll (pdf) said a majority of American voters, including nearly two-thirds of Hispanic voters, believe the Biden administration should close the southern border until a solution is reached.

U.S. District Judge Robert Summerhays, a Trump appointee, had earlier granted a temporary restraining order blocking the administration from terminating the Title 42 emergency border powers.

The Biden administration has requested the federal judge, according to judicial notice, to make a decision on the lawsuit by Friday “to avoid uncertainty that could pose operational challenges.”

“The Biden administration is scrambling five days before their own deadline to end Title 42 because President Biden’s open border policies have created, in the words of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, an ‘unsustainable’ crisis for our country,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told Fox News in a statement.

The Department of Homeland Security and the White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Diesel Price Drop, Rising Inventories Suggest East Coast Relief Possible

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 08:25 AM
By John Kingston of FreightWaves

Diesel consumers on the East Coast received some news Wednesday that may suggest an easing of the tight physical market squeeze in the region.



There have been head fakes suggesting a softening of markets in the weeks since the East Coast diesel market ran away from the rest of the country. But they proved short-lived, as the weekly national average retail diesel price published Monday by the Energy Information Administration was $5.613 a gallon. The East Coast price was 33.1 cents more than that after a three-week increase that took the spread from 4.9 cents on April 25 up to 19.2 cents the following week and 28.4 cents a week later before the latest jump.

Historically, the spread moved up and down over zero enough that it’s accurate to say there’s little difference between the two. The recent spread is an anomaly, albeit one that is costing drivers on the East Coast a lot of money.

But among the data in the latest weekly report of the EIA released Wednesday, there were several numbers that suggest there is reason to think the squeeze might have become less severe.

The key driver in the squeeze has been inventory levels on the East Coast. But the latest report shows inventories turning up.

Inventories of ultra low sulfur diesel in what the EIA calls PADD 1 — the East Coast — rose 1.21 million barrels last week to 20.4 million barrels. PADD 1 inventories of ULSD on the East Coast had declined in 13 of the 15 previous weeks and had dropped six weeks in a row before the increase the EIA posted Wednesday.

Inventories remain well below historic norms. If the bloated figures from 2020 are not counted, the average size of PADD 1 ULSD inventories in the second weekly report of May over the past five years is 36.8 million barrels. That means that even after the latest increase, East Coast ULSD inventories were just 55.4% of that five-year average.

Prices in spot and futures markets also may be providing a glimmer of hope for consumers. ULSD settled Monday at $3.6681 a gallon, down 13.12 cents on the day. It’s the lowest settlement since April 12, and since the start of May, ULSD is down more than 53 cents, including a decline of more than 25 cents in just the past three trading days.

The decline also was notable because it outpaced the performance of crude and RBOB, an unfinished gasoline blendstock that is used as a proxy for gasoline trade. That trend has been in place for most of May. On the first trading day of the month, the value of a barrel of ULSD was about $69 more than the value of a barrel of Brent crude. That spread is down to about $47.65.
The weekly data report had other figures that could signal the worst on the East Coast might be over, even if it has a long way to climb back toward some semblance of normalcy.

• U.S. refineries ran at 91.8% of capacity. It’s the highest level since August 2021. The nameplate figure for capacity used by the EIA has been reduced over the years, but it’s only down about 1% since last August. On the East Coast, refineries ran at a rate of 95%. East Coast refineries have not run at 95% or above since May 2018, and instances of it in general are rare. But it’s a very different world on the East Coast: Operable capacity back in 2018 was 1.224 million barrels a day. It is now listed as 818,000.
• Stocks of all distillates, which includes diesel but does not include jet fuel, rose to 105.3 million barrels, up from 104 million barrels nationwide a week earlier. Inventories of ULSD nationwide rose to 95.2 million barrels from 94.6 million, though with PADD 1 up more than 1 million barrels, math on the overall national increase means the country outside of PADD 1 declined.
• The total distillate in inventories rose even as the country was consuming more product. Products supplied in distillates — which is mostly diesel but includes some other products, such as heating oil — increased to 3.816 million barrels a day from 3.777 million a week earlier. It’s still down 243,000 barrels per day from a year ago, approximately 5.9%, though jet fuel, which pulls from the same pool of distillate feedstocks as diesel, has seen its consumption increase 439,000 barrels a day, a 37% jump. The total amount of distillate molecules being demanded across various applications is rising, and the rising inventory balances this week suggest those needs were met without a significant pull on stocks.
• Exports of distillates fell. Exports in the EIA weekly report are not broken out by specific product, such as ULSD. But exports of diesel have been cited as a cause of the East Coast squeeze. Total non-jet distillate exports fell to just over 1 million barrels per day last week. It’s the lowest export figure in the last eight weekly reports, where exports a month ago got up to 1.74 million barrels a day. Partly offsetting that, however, is that imports of ULSD — specific import figures are available by category of product, unlike exports — were at the fourth-lowest weekly level they’ve seen all year.

“Distillate exports were strong up until this week and refinery runs are up,” Stephen Jones of Argus Media said. Despite speculation about demand destruction, Jones noted that demand figures in the EIA report were up about 1% from the prior week.

Jones said that in addition to higher refinery runs in the U.S., European refinery runs are running about 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day more than they were in March and April. The runs are being raised as the region deals with the impact of lost Russian oil because of sanctions, including the reduction in diesel exports from Russia. “They’re going to make more diesel and gasoline, and the sanctions may fall short and not have as big an impact on the loss of supply,” Jones said. “We could end up with significantly excess gasoline for the European market, and a well-supplied [European] distillate market.”

In physical markets, the premium of East Coast diesel relative to Gulf Coast diesel narrowed for the second day in a row. According to benchmark administrator General Index, its assessment for ULSD in New York Harbor was roughly 22.25 cents more than the price in the Gulf Coast. A day earlier, it was 35.75 cents, which on the surface would suggest East Coast supplies easing relative to the Gulf Coast.

However, that market last week did narrow for a few days before blowing back out. It opened the week at approximately a 66-cent spread in favor of the East Coast, per the General Index assessments, came in as tight as 33.5 cents and then blew back out to 76 cents Monday. The reversal has cut the spread by roughly 53 cents.

The various signs pointing downward in the diesel market have not yet made it to the pump. The DTS.USA data series in FreightWaves SONAR shows the national retail average rising to $5.621 a gallon Wednesday, up from $5.577 a week ago.

But wholesale prices do react quickly to movements in the spot market for diesel. The national average wholesale diesel price reflected in the ULSDR.USA data series in SONAR was $4.234 per gallon Wednesday. It was $4.404 a gallon just two days earlier and was as high as $4.718 a gallon on May 3.



Retailers have been slow to move prices down, possibly because they have been so whipsawed by rapidly rising and falling prices that they are reluctant to follow all downward movements in wholesale prices.


The end results, though, are strong retail margins, as evidenced in SONAR’s FUELS.USA data series, which at $1.387 a gallon Wednesday is significantly higher than normal rates near $1 to $1.05 a gallon. FUELS.USA represents a straight difference between wholesale and retail prices.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Soaring Fuel Prices Leave Owner-Operators With Tough Choices

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 06:30 AM
By Mark Solomon of FreightWaves

Avery Vise, vice president, trucking for transport consultancy FTR, has some advice for owner-operators struggling with a massive spike in diesel fuel prices and plunging spot market rates: “There are good reasons to sell your truck and become a company driver,” Vise said.

Will pump pain cause owner-operators to exit the business?

Under the circumstances, it wouldn’t be surprising if some of the 350,000 registered owner-operator drivers seek the protection of company driving, or lease their independent services to a fleet, the latter of which 44% of members of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) already do. “It’s not happening yet, but it’s coming,” said William “Lewie” Pugh, an OOIDA executive vice president who worked as a leased owner-operator for 24 years, said of free-agent independent drivers either leaving the business or deciding to change the way they operate.

For owner-operators, the fat city of the past two years has lost some weight. As of this past Monday, on-highway diesel pump prices were at $5.61 a gallon nationwide, according to weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That was down a penny a gallon from the prior week, but still at near record levels. Diesel prices in the New England and mid-Atlantic regions, which are experiencing acute shortages of diesel, continued their climb. Prices in New England hit $6.43 a gallon, according to EIA data. Prices in the mid-Atlantic were reported at $6.38 a gallon. (EIA next updates its tables late on Monday.)

Meanwhile, spot prices for dry van services have collapsed, falling an eye-popping $1 per mile year-to-date, as concerns rise that the pace of the pandemic-driven pull-through of consumer buying is leveling off. According to data published Monday by KeyBanc Capital Markets, dry van spot rates, ex-fuel, are down 30% from their late 2021 peak, off 25% year-over-year and are at a 15% discount to contract rates, which typically lag spot moves by 3 to 6 months.

KeyBanc Transportation Analyst Todd Fowler said spot rates could fall another 15% to 20% before reaching breakeven operating costs consistent with declines in prior cycles.

The triple whammy of flattening demand, lower spot rates and spiking fuel prices means that owner-operators face a challenge not experienced since 2014, the last time U.S. oil prices, as measured by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) energy complex, breached the $100-a-barrel level. Drivers have four options: Go on a carrier’s payroll and avoid the fuel mess, negotiate leased-driver arrangements that include fuel surcharge pass-throughs, tough it out in the hope that oil prices quickly turn south, or exit the business.

The last option is becoming more commonplace. In March, net motor carrier authority revocations — the number of revoked certificates minus the number of reinstatements — hit their highest levels ever, surpassing a record set in January, according to FTR data. Net revocations in April were slightly lower than in March and January but were the highest since the fall of 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut down swaths of the American economy and sent diesel prices soaring.

Ironically, in March, when diesel prices spiked by about $1.15 a gallon in just two weeks, federal government approvals of new motor carrier authority applications hit an all-time monthly record of about 11,000, FTR data show. Vise said the March activity reflected decisions made by carrier applicants weeks earlier and under different market conditions. About 9,500 applications were approved in April, according to FTR estimates.

Pugh, who has lived through multiple peaks and valleys, said the impending driver attrition could be seen coming a mile away. The post-pandemic boom spawned a surge in new applications for authority, he said. Some owner-operators then decided to add trucks and drivers to build micro-fleets. With the current gold rush coming to an end, operators who found themselves overextended have begun undercutting each other on rates, he said.

OOIDA is fielding a lot more calls lately from members complaining about everything from tight-fisted freight brokers to fuel prices and insurance premiums to vehicle operating costs, Pugh said. To him, that’s a sure sign that the worm has turned.

“It’s been a trucker’s market for 18 months. Now it’s a shippers and brokers market,” Pugh said.

It will be especially tough on recent new entrants who don’t have the same opportunity as those in the market since 2020 to build war chests adequate enough to get them through the valley, he said.

Mondo Cardona, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based owner-operator who drives mostly in the flatbed segment, said he’s been running on his own for 9 years and will stay the course for now.

Yet the “idea crossed his mind” to change direction in the wake of current conditions. Cardona said his rig has been parked for 3 weeks: One week for vacation, a second for maintenance and a third because the “market just wasn’t there.”

Cardona has an advantage in that flatbed demand remains strong, reflecting gains in industrial activity. Another tailwind is that his truck is paid for. But the higher costs of everything is taking its toll, and the higher fuel costs is draining his cash cushion much faster than would otherwise be the case.

Hoping for the best
Hoping that oil and fuel prices may soon fall could be akin to whistling past the graveyard. Diesel prices are currently priced at such an enormous premium that the notion of the market returning to the rock-bottom pricing of the 2015-2020 period are far-fetched, said Matt Muenster, chief economist of Breakthrough LLC, a transport management solutions provider.

On Jan. 3, California was the only state where wholesale diesel prices exceeded the EIA’s weekly retail measures, according to Breakthrough data. Today, 11 states have wholesale diesel prices above EIA’s price levels, according to the firm. In an example of the geographic breadth of the price spikes, New York, New Jersey and Vermont have higher wholesale prices than California, which always has the nation’s highest diesel price due to an array of taxes and user fees, and longer shipping distances from Gulf Coast source points.

The current fuel pricing climate could last well into 2023, Muenster said. Short-term wild cards include the seasonal increases in summer produce and beverage demand and the annual three-day International Roadcheck conducted by the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance, which starts Tuesday, that will take some capacity out of service, albeit for a short time.

Longer-term variables include the duration of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as an end to the COVID-19 lockdowns in China, which may occur next week. Ironically, the lockdowns may be acting as a suppressant to fuel prices as less demand translates into less fuel consumption.
“Outside of the energy industry, there isn’t an appreciation for how long this can last,” Muenster said, referring to elevated diesel prices.

The good news, said Muenster, is that the big truck stop operators appear to be well supplied and are developing contingency plans to bring diesel in from other regions to supply the stretched Northeast. As for those owner-operators exposed to the spot market, “for now, they’re hanging on,” he said.

A free-fall in consumer spending could create the demand destruction needed to drive down diesel prices. That doesn’t appear likely. A for-hire trucking ton-mile index recently produced by Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business hit records in March, rising 3.5% over year-earlier levels.

MSU economists including Jason Miller, associate professor of logistics, said March’s growth was spurred by “gangbuster sales, even when you remove inflation, in parts of wholesaling including furniture, metals and paper, in addition to strong manufacturing output.”

In a LinkedIn post last week, Miller said that dry van spot rates are falling because capacity is rising by as much as, if not more than, demand, and because contract rates are starting to catch up. “I have yet to see a data point from a representative sample that should give trucking companies cause for concern that volumes are going to quickly plunge,” he said.

Staying the course
A reasonably healthy consumer may convince owner-operators to stay the course. Another factor may be that spot rates remain historically elevated. Ben Cubitt, senior vice president. of consulting for third-party logistics provider Transplace, spot rates so far this month are averaging $2.36 a mile across the provider’s 200-lane basket. That is the second-highest monthly level ever, and well above the average of between $1.60 to $1.80 per mile for this time of year, Cubitt said.

Checks with Transplace’s carrier partners have found that owner-operators are not fleeing to fleets in droves, Cubitt said. Elevated spot rates are one factor. Another is that drivers have built enough of a financial buffer over the months to withstand the downturn. A third is that drivers were caught so off-guard by the swiftness of the spot rate declines and fuel price spikes that they haven’t had any time or thought to make a move. The calculus could easily change should spot rates and volumes stay low and fuel prices high, he said.

The overarching issue is whether the current situation has a lasting effect on the number of owner-operators and micro-carriers, thousands of whom entered the market in the past two years. While there might be some attrition in the months ahead, it will not make a major dent in the driver pool, according to Vise of FTR. Of the approximately 200,000 drivers who received operating authority since July 2020, more than 150,000 are driving for firms that operate tractors and not just straight trucks or cargo vans, he said.

“I believe some of the shift of capacity from the large carriers to small, new ones is permanent and will be ongoing” due in large part to the growth and maturation of digital freight platforms, Vise said. “Even among large truckload carriers, I think some of the shift of surge capacity from leased owner-operators to operators working for carriers’ logistics arms is permanent. I anticipate the number of new carriers will decline due to ongoing spot rate and fuel cost trends, but I believe the floor for new entrants is significantly higher than it was before the pandemic.”

 

[marsh]

Dave Brat on the Coming Age of Scarcity 10:58 min

Dave Brat on the Coming Age of Scarcity
Bannons War Room Published May 19, 2022

(Will view and review later)

 

[marsh]

Bloomberg - 3:58 min

The Age of Scarcity Begins for the Global Economy
May 19th, 2022, 12:39 AM PDT
Fault-lines in the world economy are deepening as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s Covid Zero lockdowns disrupt supply chains. Bryce Baschuk explains on Bloomberg Television how these factors, plus surging inflation, have reduced the Bloomberg Economics forecast for GDP growth in 2022 by $1.6 trillion. (Source: Bloomberg)

^^^

Age of Scarcity Begins With $1.6 Trillion Hit to World Economy - BNN Bloomberg

New fault-lines are likely to outlast war and plague — leaving the global economy smaller and prices higher.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

• POLITICS
• Investing
• Commodities
• Company News

17h ago

Age of Scarcity Begins With $1.6 Trillion Hit to World Economy
Maeva Cousin, Tom Orlik and Bryce Baschuk, Bloomberg News

A Gazelle Next van moves along the production line during assembly at the GAZ Group plant in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. Oleg Deripaska, the Russian billionaire under U.S. sanctions, said his car business GAZ Group may not survive if the company isn’t removed from the American blacklist. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg , Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- The ties that bind the global economy together, and delivered goods in abundance across the world, are unravelling at a frightening pace.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s Covid Zero lockdowns are disrupting supply chains, hammering growth and pushing inflation to forty-year highs. They’re the chief reasons why Bloomberg Economics has lopped $1.6 trillion off its forecast for global GDP in 2022.

But what if that’s just an initial hit? War and plague won’t last forever. But the underlying problem – a world increasingly divided along geopolitical fault lines — only looks set to get worse.

Bloomberg Economics has run a simulation of what an accelerated reversal of globalization might look like in the longer term. It points to a significantly poorer and less productive planet, with trade back at levels before China joined the World Trade Organization. An additional blow: inflation would likely be higher and more volatile.

‘Going to Stay’
For investors, a world of nasty surprises on growth and inflation has little to cheer equity or bond markets. So far in 2022, commodities – where scarcity drives prices higher – have been among the big winners, along with companies that produce or trade them. Shares in defense firms have outperformed too, as global tensions soar.

“Fragmentation is going to stay,” says Robert Koopman, the WTO’s chief economist. He expects a “reorganized globalization” that will come with a cost: “We won’t be able to use low-cost, marginal-cost production as extensively as we did.”

For three decades, a defining feature of the world economy has been its ability to churn out ever more goods at ever lower prices. The entry of more than a billion workers from China and the former Soviet bloc into the global labor market, coupled with falling trade barriers and hyper-efficient logistics, produced an age of abundance for many.But the last four years have brought an escalating series of disruptions. Tariffs multiplied during the US-China trade war.

The pandemic brought lockdowns. And now, sanctions and export controls are upending the supply of commodities and goods.All of this risks leaving advanced economies facing a problem they thought they’d vanquished long ago: that of scarcity. Emerging nations could see more acute threats to energy and food security, like the ones already causing turmoil in countries from Sri Lanka to Peru. And everyone will have to grapple with higher prices.
A few numbers illustrate the scale of the new barriers.

• Tariffs: The trade war saw US charges on Chinese goods rocket up from 3% to about 15% over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency.
• Lockdowns: This year’s Covid crackdown in China has put hundreds of billions of dollars in exports at risk, and disrupted supply chains for companies from Apple Inc. to Tesla Inc.
• Sanctions: In 1983, the flows of trade subject to export or import bans was only worth about 0.3% of global gross domestic product. By 2019, that share had risen more than fivefold. Sweeping embargoes triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and efforts by countries to secure their own supplies by barring sales abroad — like India’s recent ban on wheat exports — have pushed the figure higher still.

Viewed from one angle, all of this is part of a global rupture that pits Western democracy and free markets against Chinese and Russian authoritarianism. But it’s not necessary to believe in a Manichean struggle between good and evil — or expect the rival camps to separate behind a new iron curtain -- to see the prospective costs.

About $6 trillion of goods — equivalent to 7% of global GDP — are traded between democratic and autocratic countries. To illustrate the risks of the great unraveling, Bloomberg Economics introduced a 25% tariff on all that traffic into a model of the global economy. That’s equal to the highest rates that the US and China have leveled against each other, and it can stand in for other kinds of friction too, like sanctions and export bans.

The result: global trade plunges by some 20% relative to a scenario without the decoupling — falling back to its levels at the end of the 1990s, before China joined the WTO, as a share of GDP. That’s a huge and wrenching change.

All countries would have to shift resources toward activities they’re less good at. A chunk of the productivity that’s associated with trade would be lost. In the long term, a rollback of globalization to late-1990s levels would leave the world 3.5% poorer than if trade stabilizes at its current share of output, and 15% poorer relative to a scenario of global ties strengthening.

The model shows that another 7% of existing trade relationships would shift between blocks. In concrete terms, that might mean factories making goods for US markets moving from China to, say, India or Mexico.

As that example suggests, there would be winners. But the transition would take time and cause severe bottlenecks along the way, ushering in a period of high and volatile inflation. As Kenneth Rogoff, then a top economist at the International Monetary Fund, warned back in 2003: “The global economy now appears immersed in a long wave of low inflation, but experience suggests that many factors, notably heightened conflict that reverses globalization, can bring it to an end.”

Rival Camps
To be sure, the reality of global fracture is unlikely to play out along quite such clear-cut ideological lines. Still, those numbers provide a sense of what’s at risk.

Democracies can be forgiven for feeling under threat. In 1983, when Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union an “evil empire,” authoritarian countries accounted for about 20% of global GDP.

Fast forward to 2022, and that share has risen to 34%. In the years ahead, with China expected to outgrow the US and Europe, it will edge higher still.

The Ukraine war shows rival political systems lining up on opposite sides. Chinese President Xi Jinping remains supportive of his Russian ally Vladimir Putin, while Europe and the US are aligned on sanctions for Moscow and military support for Kyiv. It also shows the limits of that framing. India, the world’s most populous democracy, continues to buy Russian oil and weapons. Many other democracies — in Asia, Latin America and elsewhere — show little desire to join the US-led campaign of economic and financial pressure on Russia.

Whether they’re defined by an ideological divide, or simply diverging interests in a multi-polar world, the deepening fault-lines are real. China’s latest Covid lockdowns are a good example of some of their harder-to-predict consequences.

In a world of friendlier great-power relations, Chinese leaders likely would have acquired enough of the effective US-made Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines to give their population a measure of omicron immunity, allowing the economy to reopen. In a world where China is determined to demonstrate its self-sufficiency, and dodge dependence on foreign innovations, they have not.

As a consequence, China’s 1.4 billion population has insufficient protection from the virus.

Letting omicron rip could cause 1.6 million deaths, a recent study in the journal Nature Medicine found. So Beijing sees little option but to continue with draconian lockdowns. As a result, China is taking a crushing blow to growth. And the rest of the world faces yet more disruption to supply chains, as Chinese factories stall and cargo ships float idle outside Shanghai’s port.

The threat to US and European economies isn’t limited to the repercussions of Chinese lockdowns, or blowback from their own measures against Russia. They could also be exposed to direct retaliation.

China’s 2010 ban on the sale of rare earths – crucial inputs into everything from smart phones to electric-car batteries – to Japan is one example of how export controls can be used by either side. Russia turning off the gas for Poland and Bulgaria is another. If Putin goes further and cuts shipments to Germany, France and Italy too, the result would put 40% of the European Union’s supply at risk, tipping the bloc from Covid recovery into painful recession.

Even in the depths of the US–China trade war, the idea of an extreme rupture between rival geo-political camps seemed far-fetched. The degree of interdependence embodied in the supply chains of companies like Apple appeared too great to disentangle. Some argued that the end of the Trump administration would restore normal relations.

In 2022, with the trade-war tariffs still in place, the Covid crisis adding to pressure to localize supply chains, and Russia locked out of US and European markets, it doesn’t seem so far-fetched.

The intensity of the current shocks from war and plague will fade. The underlying forces driving deglobalization will not. Brace for a world of lower growth, higher prices, and increased volatility.

Methodology and Sources

To estimate the impact of globalization unravelling on international trade flows, Bloomberg Economics used the quantitative international trade model developed by Antras and Chor (2018) and imposed a 25% tariff on all exports of goods and services between countries in the democratic bloc and countries in the autocratic bloc, as classified using the Freedom House’s scores.

The impact of lower trade intensity on global output is derived from estimating the historical relationship between globalization (using the KOF institute’s aggregate globalization index) and potential GDP (using Bloomberg Economics’ estimates for capital deepening and total factor productivity), in the spirit of Del Negro and Primiceri et al. (2015).

The classification of countries between democracies and autocracies is based on Freedom House’s Freedom in the World annual reports. Countries with a Global Freedom Score of 50 or above are classified as democracies.

Trade volumes subject to sanctions are calculated as the total of bilateral trade flows exposed to partial or total import or export bans, based on data from the Global Sanctions Data Base (GSDB), Felbermayr et al. (2020).

 

[marsh]

Mary Holland of CHD: “Misinformation is anything the government doesn’t like.” 6:20 min

Mary Holland of CHD: “Misinformation is anything the government doesn’t like.”
Bannons War Room Published May 19, 2022

(did not have time to watch)

 

[marsh]

The Deliberate Destruction of the United States: It's the One Power Left That Stands in the Way of Globalism 2:03 min

The Deliberate Destruction of the United States: It's the One Power Left That Stands in the Way of Globalism
Red Voice Media Published May 19, 2022

Dr. Peter Breggin: "Everything they [Biden admin & friends] do is tailored to harming the sovereignty of the U.S. ... Why would they want the borders open? ... [Why] make us all take these injections, but not the people who are coming across [the border]? Why would they shut down oil production in the US and the pipelines right when we were finally getting to be the leading oil producer in the world?"

"They [Bill Gates, Fauci & company] do not favor America as the leading country in the world. They don't see it as exceptional. Many of them much prefer the top-down authoritarianism of China."

Full Video: https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/05/the-deliberate-destruction-of-the-united-states-to-install-a-one-world-government-dr-peter-breggin-joins-arthur-moore-video-interview

 

[marsh]

U.N.-Biden "Health" Scheme Seeks Global Government, Warns Dr. Malone 30:03 min

U.N.-Biden "Health" Scheme Seeks Global Government, Warns Dr. Malone
The New American Published May 19, 2022

A massive power grab by the UN World Health Organization and the Biden administration--with the World Economic Forum and Bill Gates in the background--is an attempt to subvert national sovereignty and build a one-world government with totalitarian rule, warned mRNA pioneer Dr. Robert Malone in this interview with The New American magazine's Alex Newman for Conversations That Matter. This is an "impeachable offense" on Biden's part, he said, warning of the extreme consequences of allowing this to go through. Dr. Malone is calling for criminals to be held accountable and for this power grab to be resisted by all Americans.

 

[marsh]

Stark Raving Green | Beyond the Cover 20:00 min

Stark Raving Green | Beyond the Cover
The New American Published May 19, 2022

The climate-change alarmists claim that, in order to save the Earth from environmental catastrophe, we must abandon all use of fossil fuels and instead use renewable sources such as wind and solar to produce all of our electricity. The notion is ludicrous, and in this episode of “Beyond the Cover,” host Gary Benoit interviews energy expert Ed Hiserodt, who explains why.

Of course, the impracticality — in fact, the impossibility — of going stark raving green includes the fact that the Sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow. But there is much more to it than that! For example, because a single windmill produces a piffling amount of electricity compared to a fossil-fuel or nuclear power plant, literally millions of windmills would be required in the United States alone if they were to replace the electricity now being produced. Hiserodt wrote an article about this, titled “Stark Raving Mad,” in the May 30, 2022 issue of The New American magazine.

But in the latter part of this interview, he makes a compelling case for nuclear power, a subject not included in his article.

 

[marsh]

Avi Yemini & Real Rukshan arrive in Davos to EXPOSE the global elites 4:52 min

Avi Yemini & Real Rukshan arrive in Davos to EXPOSE the global elites
Rebel News Published May 19, 2022
The pair arrived in Davos, Switzerland, to cover the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) conference.

 

[marsh]

New Food System Will Stop at Nothing to Control You

Get organic, roasted, freeze-dried chicken for long-term storage: https://prepperorganics.com This topic is such an important one to patriots across the country that I felt compelled to make it the to

rumble.com

59:40 min

New Food System Will Stop at Nothing to Control You
The JD Rucker Show Published May 19, 2022

This topic is such an important one to patriots across the country that I felt compelled to make it the topic for the latest episode of The Midnight Sentinel. So few Americans have any idea how controlled our food systems are. Even fewer Americans are aware of the nefarious plans to use this control of the food systems to control the people themselves.

We are standing by the precipice as a nation. While some are focused on Johnny Depp and Amber Heard, others are being bombarded with real news that's consequential but not necessarily imperative. It's ludicrous, for example, that the U.S. government is no sending $40 billion in "aid" to Ukraine, not just because it's a slap in the face to taxpayers but because those who voted for it are well aware that most if not all of that money will be wasted without helping a single Ukrainian. If anything, that money will actually hurt Ukrainians by prolonging the war.

It's an important topic and both conservative and alternative news outlets are right to cover it, but they need to make room for coverage of topics like the one I'm sharing today by Dr. Joseph Mercola. He nails the topic as best he can. It's challenging because there are simply so many moving parts that it's extremely challenging to disseminate it all without making it convoluted.

That's one of the reasons I covered it in my podcast. Through whatever medium people prefer, we need to get the word out as quickly as possible.

 

[marsh]

Michael Yon @MichaelYon​ May 19, 2022 at 7:18pm​ Massive Error — Price Controls Coming Big Time to America​ This is a massive error that drunken monkeys always do when they lose control of the chainsaw. The give it more gas and slug more whiskey until the monkeys cut off their little monkey legs and fall off the branch they were trying to saw off. While sitting on it. Price controls kill supply side. And then nothing is available at any price. ​

View Post​

​ Michael Yon @MichaelYon​ May 19, 2022 at 9:06am​

Monkey House​ 19 May 2022 Panama for a little longer Morning Mind Burst, sans edit Actions like this, and price controls -- cause famines to grow. The mechanism is simple: Supply chain elements that are losing money stop supplying. That's just how stuff works. Any government that is stupid or terrible enough to create conditions for famine during times of abundance will be far too stupid or terrible to address the far more difficult conditions after the emergency begins. For instance price controls. In every single famine I have studied, governments begin price controls on fuel/food, etc., which accelerate the problem destructively. By destructively, I mean, for instance, 'solutions' cause bankruptcies and plant or infrastructure closers that are not quickly remedied without great expense of time and meager capital. Government 'firemen' show up and start torching the neighbors to prevent the fire from spreading. Cities and factories cannot be unburned and the monkeys just burn, burn, burn. Famine is as destructive to economies as fire. Strategic level food and fuel supply is not a "light switch" that can be toggled. Officers should use discretion over stealing to eat, says police watchdog New chief inspector of constabulary says crimes of poverty should be ‘dealt with in the best way possible’ www.theguardian.com Officers should use discretion over stealing to eat, says police watchdog New chief inspector of constabulary says crimes of poverty should be ‘dealt with in the best way possible’ ‘Police are there to help people in extreme need, that’s why we joined. We can signpost them to a food bank or help like that,’ said one chief constable. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images Vikram Dodd Police and crime correspondent Wed 18 May 2022 12.00 EDT The cost of living crisis will trigger an increase in crime and officers should use their “discretion” when deciding whether to prosecute people who steal in order to eat, the new chief inspector of constabulary has said. “The impact of poverty, and the impact of lack of opportunity for people, does lead to an increase in crime. There’s no two ways about that,” Andy Cooke said as inflation hit a 40-year high of 9%. When asked how policing could avoid being seen as the arm of an uncaring state, he said forces across England and Wales were skilled in dealing with the tensions and dynamics of their communities. “What they’ve got to bear in mind is what is the best thing for the community, and that individual, in the way they deal with those issues. And I certainly fully support police officers using their discretion – and they need to use discretion more often.” Cooke said he was not advocating an amnesty for people who commit crimes of poverty, nor “giving a carte blanche for people to go out shoplifting”. Instead, he advised officers to make sure such matters of law enforcement are “dealt with in the best way possible”. Andy Cooke, a former chief constable of Merseyside police, took over as chief inspector of constabulary last month. Photograph: Martin Godwin/The Guardian In a wide-ranging interview, Cooke also said:​ Every burglary victim should get a visit from the police. Forces may be marked down by the inspectorate if they fail to do so. The charging rate should more than treble, from the current 6% to at least 20%. The criminal justice system is failing victims of rape. Policing is still recovering from cuts inflicted by Conservative-led governments from 2010. The chief inspector of constabulary is the head of the independent assessor of police forces in England and Wales. Cooke, a former chief constable of Merseyside police, took over from his predecessor Sir Tom Winsor last month. Past economic slumps have led to a rise in offences such as theft, and Cooke said surging inflation and fuel costs were likely to eat away at police budgets. Speaking on the cost of living crisis, a key issue that will have knock-on effects for policing in the coming months, Cooke said: “I think whenever you see an increase in the cost of living or whenever you see more people dropping into poverty, I think you’ll invariably see a rise in crime. And that’s going to be a challenge for policing to deal with.” He believes that rank-and-file officers should be trusted to use their own judgment in some cases. “It’s one of the great things about being a police officer, you’re allowed to make your own decisions in relation to all of these issues. It’s not a new thing,” he said. But this did not mean an amnesty for certain crimes, he added. “There’s always individual cases where you can use your discretion that doesn’t necessarily result in a prosecution but is dealt with in the best way possible. And the shoplifting one’s a good example, isn’t it?” One chief constable whose area includes pockets of poverty agreed with Cooke. “There is a difference between a first-time offender who steals bread, cheese or milk to eat, and someone stealing to feed an addiction,” they said. “Police are there to help people in extreme need, that’s why we joined. We can signpost them to a food bank or help like that.” Away from the cost of living, Cooke said the charging rate for recorded offences at 6% was far too low and he expected a dramatic increase. “I think it’s not unrealistic to aim for 20%. That’s a realistic expectation in my view.” He would not put a timeframe on reaching that target, but said: “I think when we have a return of 20,000 police officers and those officers have had an opportunity to be properly trained, with sustained financial support from the government, I think that’s a realistic ambition.” As part of boosting confidence in policing, Cooke said every burglary victim should get a visit from police to scour for fingerprints and other forensic evidence. He said this was necessary and achievable“because burglary is an exceptionally invasive crime”, often offering “forensic opportunities”. He said: “After you’ve suffered such a crime as burglary, the expectation should be that as a victim you get professional service from policing. So when I was a chief that was my expectation, and that expectation doesn’t change now.” He said the inspectorate would consider marking forces down if every burglary victim does not get a visit. “If I got burgled, I would be absolutely devastated if all I got was a phone call.” Charge rates for rape stand at barely above 1% and Cooke accepted victims were being failed. “Any charge rate that sits around 2% in relation to such a serious offence must mean there is a failure somewhere.” Policing suffered from years of cuts and is now under pressure from the current Conservative government and the public to boost crime fighting. Cooke said forces were still recovering from the cuts but things were beginning to return to a “better position”. However, it would take “some years” for the 20,000 extra officers currently being recruited to become effective, he said. Figures show public confidence in the Metropolitan police, Britain’s largest force, is at its lowest on record. Only 49% of Londoners thought local police did a good job, down from 68% in March 2017 when Cressida Dick became commissioner. Cooke said the inspectorate would try to stop forces falling into crisis and was currently inspecting the Met.​

 

[marsh]

Michael Yon @MichaelYon​ May 19, 2022 at 3:03pm​

Another Food Fire Barely Reported​ Another apparent food distribution fire in Phoenix. Notice it’s barely getting mention on places like Google and Twitter. A few mentioned on Gettr. I learned about it from my awesome readers. How much destruction going on under America’s nose but hidden deeper than Biden’s laptop. Appears that someone is working a CARVER Matrix. (In these famine books I read, food is often burned/attacked for various reasons.) Study CARVER Matrix. I will post on it later. In Special Forces, I went to a lot of training for this stuff. Critical infrastructure, critical nodes, etc. The Beast is knocking out our energy such as diesel. No diesel come harvest = famine in United States. And no voting of course. No real voting. The only way to avoid this kinetic fight is surrender to the ovens. ​

 

[marsh]

Episode 268: W.H.O. IS IN CHARGE? 2:12:14 min part on WHO starts at 1:40:07 min

(Have not yet had time to watch)

Episode 268: W.H.O. IS IN CHARGE?
The HighWire with Del Bigtree Published May 19, 2022 2,914 Views

Biden’s Disinfo Board Dissolved; Fauci Gaslighting Again; FDA OK’s Shot for 5-11 yr olds; Vax’d Pilot Collapses After Flight; The W.H.O. Pandemic Treaty, and The Better Way

 

[marsh]

Russell Brand on W.H.O. "pandemic treaty": "Your democracy is f*cking finished." 1:05 min

Russell Brand on W.H.O. "pandemic treaty": "Your democracy is f*cking finished."
The Post Millennial Clips Published May 19, 2022

( no time to summarize further)

 

[marsh]

Re baby formula

"The real shortages started in July of 2021." .18 min

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene tells Terrance Bates that the Biden Administration is giving a "complete lie" to the American people.

(COMMENT: I am connecting the dots and I see a picture emerging of Joe Biden straddling a wrecking ball, swinging at a battered Statue of Liberty.)

 

[marsh]

Energy prices surging due to Biden policies 3:09 min

Energy prices surging due to Biden policies
One America News Network Published May 19, 2022

American's are struggling to pay for and even find some basic necessities under the Biden administration. One America's Chloe Hauxwell has more.

(Keystone pipeline. Senate hearing)

^^^^

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CSaDUdBYHA
6:27 min

Premier Jason Kenney Testimony at Hearing to Examine U.S. and Canada Energy Partnership

May 17, 2022


Energy GOP

^^^

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_AukW2l0bM
4:58 min

Ranking member Barrasso questions Alberta Premier Jason Kenney

May 17, 2022


Energy GOP

^^^^

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2-QKQPCUsQ
15:42 min

Sen. Joe Manchin Questions Witnesses During U.S.-Canada Energy And Minerals Partnership Hearing

May 17, 2022



Senate Energy Dems, Chairman Joe Manchin III

May 17, 2022 - Chairman Joe Manchin (D-WV) questions witnesses during a hearing to examine ways to strengthen the energy and mineral partnership between the U.S. and Canada to address energy security and climate objectives.

 

[marsh]

What are the true plans of the World Economic Forum? 7:54 min

WHAT ARE THE TRUE PLANS OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM?

• WATCH

On last night's episode of The Ezra Levant Show, David Menzies was joined by Rebel News' Avi Yemini to discuss the World Economic Forum's true goals and the potentially sinister plans they are striving to implement on the masses.
FULL REPORT WATCH: What are the true plans of the World Economic Forum?

 

[marsh]

Joe Allen - Metaverse, Facebook; Surveillance and Information Control 4:46 min

Joe Allen - Metaverse, Facebook; Surveillance and Information Control
Bannons War Room Published May 20, 2022

(did not watch)

 

[marsh]

Centralized Control: The WHO Treaty & Amendments Unleash Tedros as Health Dictator of the World 13:06 min

Centralized Control: The WHO Treaty & Amendments Unleash Tedros as Health Dictator of the World
Red Voice Media Published May 19, 2022

The WHO's Would-Be Treaty Powers
1.) The authority to declare what constitutes a pandemic. It could be the flu.
2.) They would decide what the quarantine requirements are. They could put you in a quarantine center or keep you home from work.
3.) The WHO would decide how to prevent or treat the new disease. They could, yet again, deny doctors the ability to treat patients the way they would like.
4.) The authority to determine which medications are safe and who develops them.
5.) They would be in charge of how the new vaccines are promoted, including vaccine mandates.
Tucker: "Here's what's at stake: not just your health, but the way that you live and your relationship to the government. Representative government requires your consent ... and this eliminates it."
Video via KAGBABE

 

[marsh]

House Passes Domestic Terrorism Bill to Silence Conservatives and Patriotic Americans 7:39 min

House Passes Domestic Terrorism Bill to Silence Conservatives and Patriotic Americans
The Gateway Pundit Published May 19, 2022

House Passes Domestic Terrorism Bill to Use the FBI to Silence Conservatives Who Disagree With Them (VIDEO) | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft

House Democrats on Wednesday passed a Domestic terrorism bill to silence conservatives and those Americans who disagree with them.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

House Passes Domestic Terrorism Bill to Use the FBI to Silence Conservatives Who Disagree With Them (VIDEO)
By Jim Hoft
Published May 19, 2022 at 9:32pm

House Democrats on Wednesday passed a Domestic terrorism bill to silence conservatives and those Americans who disagree with them.

Democrats used the mass shooting by a lunatic on Saturday in Buffalo, New York to justify the legislation that will allow the FBI to continue to spy on and harass conservatives and critics of their radical agenda.

The new law is nothing new, throughout history brutal regimes have suppressed criticism from their detractors.

And the Biden regime has been cracking down on conservatives who attended the January 6 protests in Washington DC. Dozens of Trump supporters still languish in prison and many of the political prisoners did not participate in any violence. Many did not even enter the US Capitol that day.

So Americans are getting used to the Marxist tactics of the Biden regime and intl community.

The bill passed 222 to 203 with useful idiot Adam Kinzinger making the rounds attacking Republicans after the bill passed.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"Build Blackouts Better": Half Of America Faces Power Blackouts This Summer, Regulator Warns

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 05:20 PM

Tens of millions of Americans could be thrown into a summer of hell as a megadrought, heatwaves, and reduced power generation could trigger widespread rolling electricity blackouts from the Great Lakes to the West Coast, according to Bloomberg, citing a new report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a regulatory body that manages grid stability.

NERC warned power supplies in the Western US could be strained this summer as a historic drought reduces hydroelectric power generation due to falling reservoir levels and what's expected to be an unseasonably hot summer. Compound the hellacious weather backdrop with grids decommissioning fossil fuel power plants to fight climate change and their inability to bring on new green power generation, such as solar, wind, and batteries, in time, is a perfect storm waiting to happen that will produce electricity deficits that may force power companies into rolling blackouts for stability purposes.



The regulatory body pointed out that supply-chain woes are delaying major Southwest solar projects, while some coal plants have trouble procuring supplies because of increased exports. They said there's also an increasing threat of cyberattacks from Russia.

By region, the Midwest power grid will be extremely tight. Across the Western US, power generation capacity has declined 2.3% since last summer, even as demand is expected to increase. Grids in the region may have to source power from neighboring grids as extreme heat will cause people to crank up their air conditioners. A situation of low wind speeds could trigger blackouts, according to NERC. They outlined how the Midwest could face power shortfalls due to the removal of power capacity from retiring fossil fuel power plants.

NERC issued a similar warning last year, stating power grids that serve 40% of the US population were at risk of blackouts. One year later, there was only one notable blackout last June during a heatwave in the Pacific Northwest that left 9,000 customers without power. But with reduced electricity generation capacity outpacing new green power sources, the risks of blackouts are increasing this year.

In Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)has already warned multiple times of grid stress as early summer-like heatwaves sent temperatures in certain parts of the state into triple-digit territory.

California's grid operators have also warned of rising blackout threats --for the next three summers -- as the state transitions to greener forms of energy. The drought and shrinking reservoir levels have reduced hydroelectric power generation on top of decommissioned fossil fuel power plants. "We know that reliability is going to be difficult in this time of transition," said Alice Reynolds, president of the California Public Utilities Commission, during a May 6 press conference.

NERC's report is an eye-opener for those living in the Western US. Many households face out-of-control inflation, soaring fuel prices, and food shortages ahead of what could be a summer of unrest as the Biden administration is bracing for a wave of violence upon the Supreme Court's overturn of Roe V. Wade.

America is slipping into the abyss as households get a taste of what it's like to live in Venezuela.

It's not that far off from what people are experiencing today: soaring inflation, shortages, a ruling regime which so many claim was not elected by the majority and soon, rolling blackouts.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Biden Seeks New Unilateral Powers For WHO Chief To Declare Public Health Emergencies

FRIDAY, MAY 20, 2022 - 02:00 AM
Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times,

President Joe Biden’s administration is pushing amendments to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) governing regulations to give Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus unilateral authority to declare a public health emergency in any nation based on whatever evidence he chooses.

The logo of the World Health Organization is seen at the WHO headquarters in Geneva, on June 11, 2009. (Anja Niedringhaus/AP Photo)

The proposed U.S. amendments were forwarded to the WHO in January for consideration next week by the UN’s 75th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland.

In a Jan. 26 letter to a virtual meeting of WHO’s executive board, Loyce Pace, Assistant Secretary for Global Affairs of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) described “the importance of equity and equitable access to medical countermeasures and the negative impacts of misinformation and disinformation related to the pandemic. We agree that we must all do better.

World Health Organization (WHO) director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus adjusts his glasses during a meetin in front of the WHO headquarters in Geneva on May 29, 2021. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

“The United States led an inclusive and transparent process to develop this decision, as we are mindful that updating and modernizing the IHR [International Health Regulations] are critical to ensuring the world is better prepared for and can respond to, the next pandemic.”

Among the proposed U.S. amendments, one removes an existing requirement in Section 9 that WHO “consult with and seek to obtain verification” from officials in a nation in which a health crisis is suspected before making any public declarations. The same amendment provides that “WHO may take into account reports from sources other than notifications or consultations” from the nation with the suspected problem.

A proposed change to Section 5 would direct WHO to establish “early warning criteria for assessing and progressively updating the national, regional, or global risk posed by an event of unknown causes or sources.”

A proposed amendment to Section 10 requires that the WHO, in the event the nation with the suspected problem doesn’t cooperate within 48 hours, shall “when justified by the magnitude of the public health risk, immediately share with other [nations] the information available to it.”

Nowhere do the amendments or accompanying documents explain how or why U.S. public health officials believe the equity issue in health care would be addressed by giving Tedros the authority to declare a public health emergency on the basis of information provided by a source other than the affected nation.

President Joe Biden speaks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on March 8, 2022. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

A search of the White House Press Office website found only one veiled reference to the WHO amendments. That reference was in a Feb. 2 Fact Sheet issued by the White House saying the U.S. “will continue to advance health security and pandemic preparedness abroad, including through strengthening WHO, working with partners towards targeted IHR amendments.”

The proposed amendment Section 5 of the WHO regulations also appears to parallel the Biden administration’s reference in a fact sheet on its proposed 2023 federal budget that was issued in April.

That reference commits the Biden administration to support “global threat detection innovations through a globally connected network of public health surveillance systems that optimizes disease prevention and health promotion as we strengthen surveillance initiatives to provide necessary actionable data before, during, and after a pandemic.”

“The budget includes $2.47 billion in mandatory funding for CDC to include enhancements to domestic sentinel surveillance programs, expansion of domestic and global wastewater surveillance, and investments in global genomic surveillance approaches, as well as global respiratory disease surveillance platforms,” the fact sheet states.

Respiratory surveillance platforms include video cameras and recorders that alert authorities when members of the public are seen coughing or otherwise acting in a manner that could indicate the presence of an infectious disease or help spread one already present in a population. Such equipment is widely used in China.

The Biden WHO amendments are the latest step in the current president’s efforts to reintegrate the U.S. with WHO after his predecessor, President Donald Trump, slashed U.S. funding to the international health organization and then gave notice of U.S. withdrawal.

A man uses an oxygen mask at a hospital during a sandstorm in Baghdad, Iraq, May 5, 2022. REUTERS/Alaa Al-Marjani

One of Biden’s first acts as president was to withdraw Trump’s withdrawal notice and to restore U.S. funding, which accounts for half of WHO’s budget. Trump’s dissatisfaction with WHO stemmed from what he saw as the international health organization’s excessive deference to China regarding the origin of the CCP virus, which causes COVID-19.

A White House spokesman didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for information on the amendments and the administration’s rationale for the proposals. An HHS spokesman also didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

Critics of the amendments such as Dr. Peter Breggin, however, have not been reluctant to comment on the proposed amendments.

“The amendments would give WHO the right to take important steps to collaborate with other nations and other organizations worldwide to deal with any nation’s alleged health crisis, even against its stated wishes,” Breggin said in a May 4 post under a byline shared with his wife, Ginger Ross Breggin.

“The power to declare health emergencies is a potential tool to shame, intimidate, and dominate nations. It can be used to justify ostracism and economic or financial actions against the targeted nation by other nations aligned with WHO or who wish to harm and control the accused nation,” Breggin wrote.

Peter Breggin is a Harvard-trained psychiatrist, former U.S. Public Health Service officer, and former National Institute on Mental Health (NIMH) consultant. Ginger Ross Breggin is a journalist, author, and medical reform advocate.

Then-director of NIH Francis Collins at the National Institutes of Health, in Bethesda, Maryland, on Jan. 26, 2021. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Travis Weber, vice president for policy and government affairs at the Washington, D.C.-based Family Research Council, told The Epoch Times that “the American people need to express concern with the White House, especially as our president representing us on the world stage—we need an explanation of what you are doing here and why.”

Weber said Biden administration officials have “not really talked about this, so we need reporters to ask them at a press conference what are they proposing and really get them to explain it. People can express their concern about that to the White House and express concern to their members of Congress, and we need Members of Congress to challenge the administration to explain themselves. Part one of this is: ‘What is going on, what are you proposing, and why.'”

Similarly, Mat Staver, founder and chairman of the Florida-based Liberty Counsel public interest law firm, told The Epoch Times that if the U.S. decided not to cooperate with WHO on a possible health emergency, and “say you had Trump back in office who wants to pull out, or you have somebody else who doesn’t want to deal with WHO, they could bring it before the International Court at the Hague for fines or some other form of restriction. They could coordinate with their other member nations to take actions with regards to supplies, sharing data or other documentation for trade, and who knows what the consequences of that would be.”

Liberty Counsel also pointed out in a statement on May 12 that a UN report claimed in May 2021 that the pandemic would have been avoided had the international health organization had greater authority.

That report also recommended that WHO be given “an adaptable incentive regime, [including] sanctions such as public reprimands, economic sanctions, or denial of benefits” to nations that don’t cooperate with it.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

California To Spend $5.2 Billion On 'Electricity Reserve' To Avoid Blackouts

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 08:20 PM
Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

California has proposed spending $5.2 billion on creating a "strategic electricity reliability reserve" that would help the state avoid blackouts when its electric grid is stressed, a 2022-2023 budget revision document showed on Friday according to Bloomberg.

California has weathered a fair amount of criticism over its electric grid, which contributed to rolling blackouts as recently as 2020. California warned last week that it could run into electricity shortages this summer with drought, heatwaves, and wildfires continuing to stress the grid.



But renewables and California's electricity exports have also stressed the grid.
The Reserve will be developed using existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire, new generation, new storage projects, clean backup generation projects, customer side load reduction capacity that is visible to and dispatchable by CAISO during grid emergencies, and diesel and natural gas backup generation projects - which the budget document stressed would have emission controls and all required permits.

Of note were two items in that list: "existing generation capacity that was scheduled to retire" and "diesel and natural gas backup generation projects".

California is set to retire 6,000 MW of nuclear and gas-fired energy production.

The Reserve will be capable of providing up to 5,000 MW that will be available whenever the grid is stressed.

The new budget would also earmark $8 billion over five years to increase the state's system reliability and provide relief to consumers as electricity rates rise.

The budget now calls for $22.5 billion in funds for the purpose of "climate resilience and integrated climate, equity, and economic opportunity across the state's budget to mobilize a coordinated all-of-government response to the climate crisis

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Rickards: "We Are On The Precipice"

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 06:20 PM
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

I don’t believe many people grasp the enormity of the global food crisis we’ll be facing in the months ahead. But the world could be on the verge of a massive humanitarian crisis. Let’s dive in…


The supply chain collapse preceded the war in Ukraine, but the war has only intensified the problems. You can see it with your own eyes when you walk into a supermarket and find long stretches of empty shelves in stores that used to be chock-full of food and other merchandise.

Even goods that are available such as gasoline are being sold at much higher prices. Prices for gasoline (and diesel, which is critical for goods transportation) have more than doubled in the past nine months. All of this is clear. The question is will it get worse from here?

Unfortunately, the answer is yes.

Bob Unanue is the CEO of Goya Foods, which is one of the largest food distributors in the world. Few people are better positioned to assess the global food situation than Unanue, who deals with raw food deliveries on the one hand and retail customers on the other.

Unanue is now warning, “We are on the precipice of a global food crisis.” Other experts are quoted making a similar point. That’s not hyperbole or fearmongering, but a serious analysis.

Here’s why…

29% of All Wheat Exports in Jeopardy
In the Northern Hemisphere, the planting season for 2022 is well underway. Crops were planted (or not) in March and April. Based on that, you can already form estimates of output next September and October during the harvest season (subject to some variability based on weather and other factors).

Plantings have been far below normal in 2022, either due to a lack of fertilizer or to much higher costs for fertilizer where farmers simply chose to plant less. This predictable shortage is in addition to the much greater shortages due to the fact that Russian output is sanctioned and Ukrainian output is nonexistent because it’s at war.

Russia and Ukraine together account for 29% of global wheat and 19% of global corn exports.
Russia and Ukraine together produce 29% of all the wheat exports in the world. That doesn’t mean they grow 29% of the wheat in the world. It means they grow 29% of the wheat exports.

The U.S., Australia, Canada and others grow a lot of wheat but consume most of it themselves.

They export relatively little. Importantly, they don’t simply eat it. They feed it to their farm animals. People don’t often make the connection between grain and animal products, but it’s critical.

Many countries get 70–100% of their grains from either Russia or Ukraine or both. Lebanon gets 100%. Egypt is over 70%. Kenya, Sudan, Somalia, many central African countries and Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries receive much of their grain from Russia or Ukraine.

No Planting, No Crops
But it’s worse than that because not only are many Ukrainian exports shut down now, but the planting season is nearly over. And you’re not going to get any grain in October if you didn’t plant it in April or May. And they didn’t for obvious reasons.

What that means is you project ahead to October, November, December of this year, those countries I mentioned are not going to be able to get their grain supplies. There simply aren’t going to be any, or they’ll be greatly reduced. The combined population of countries that get between 70% and 100% of their imports from Russia or Ukraine is 700 million people.

That’s 10% of the global population. So you’re looking at mass starvation. You’re looking at a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions, probably the worst since the Black Death of the 14th century. That’s coming down the road, even if most people can’t see it coming or fully fathom the depths of the coming crisis.

In short, we know enough now to predict much higher prices, empty shelves and, in some cases, mass starvation in the fourth quarter of this year and beyond.

Beyond the humanitarian aspect of the coming food shortages, there are also potentially serious social and geopolitical ramifications.

Another Arab Spring?
You remember the “Arab Spring” starting in 2010. It started in Tunisia and spread from there. Well, it was triggered by a food crisis. There was a shortage of wheat, which triggered the protests.

There were underlying problems in these societies, but a food crisis was the catalyst for the protests.

Now, many poorer countries in the Middle East and Africa are facing a much greater crisis as the impact of shortages manifests itself later this year and into next year. Will we see even more social unrest than in 2011?

It’s very possible, and it could be even more destabilizing than the Arab Spring. We could also see waves of mass migration from Africa and the Middle East as desperate and hungry people flee their homelands.

Europe endured a wave of mass immigration in 2015. Many migrants were attempting to flee the war in Syria, but there were great amounts of people who weren’t affected by the war. They were just seeking better lives in the welfare states of Europe.

Mass starvation could trigger an even greater migration, which would present Europe with enormous challenges.

The United States could also witness another wave of migration at the southern border, which is currently being inundated by migrants. A global food crisis could send the numbers spiraling to uncontrollable limits.

What if the War Drags On?
And what if the war in Ukraine drags on well into next year? Next year’s growing season would also be disrupted and the shortages could extend into late 2023 and beyond.

Well, maybe some would argue that other nations could pick up the slack and grow additional grain. That’s nice in theory, but it’s not that simple.

Russia is the largest exporter of fertilizer, and sanctions are cutting off supplies. Many farmers cannot get fertilizer at all, and those who can are paying between twice and three times last year’s price.

That means that crops actually produced will have much higher prices because of the higher price of inputs such as fertilizer, and the higher transportation costs due to higher prices for diesel and gasoline.

Like I said earlier, we’re looking at a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions, probably the worst since the black death of the 14th century.

And we’re not prepared to handle it

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Biden's Big Lie: 'Green' Energy Doesn't Save Money, It's 4-6 Times More-Expensive

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 05:40 PM
Op-Ed authored by Stephen Moore via The Epoch Times,

President Joe Biden keeps claiming that wind and solar energy are going to save money for consumers. But more government subsidies to “renewable energy” is a key feature of the White House anti-inflation strategy recently announced by Biden.

U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and U.S. Senator Ed Markey (D-Mass.) (R) speak during a press conference to announce Green New Deal legislation to promote clean energy programs outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 7, 2019. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

He probably got that idea from John Kerry, the administration’s climate czar, who recently claimed that “solar and wind are less expensive than coal or oil or gas.” Pete Buttigieg, the Biden Transportation secretary, makes the same claims about the thousands of dollars that motorists can save if they buy electric cars.

This couldn’t be more wrong.

Proponents of “green” energy boondoggles are often masters at playing with the numbers, because that is the only way that wind and solar electricity generation make any sense.

Advocates such as Kerry love to focus on the low operating costs of solar and wind since they don’t require constant purchases of fuel. Ignoring the relatively short lifespan of solar and wind components, as well as the high initial investment, can make it appear as though solar and wind operate at lower costs than fossil fuels or nuclear power.

Let’s get the facts straight. The cost isn’t just what you pay at the retail level for gas or power. It also includes the taxes you pay to subsidize the power. A 2017 study by the Department of Energy found that for every dollar of government subsidy per BTU unit of energy produced from fossil fuels, wind and solar get at least $10.

That’s anything but a money saver.

The reason the subsidies are so high is that solar and wind have additional costs compared to their more reliable competition. “Green” energy sources are non-dispatchable, meaning their output can’t be changed to match demand. The wind doesn’t blow harder, and the sun doesn’t shine brighter, just because electricity use is peaking.

Conversely, fossil fuel entities—such as a coal plant—can ramp up generation when we need it most and ramp down when demand falls.

Widespread adoption of solar and wind generation would necessitate expensive batteries on a large scale to ensure that people still have power when the wind stops blowing or when the sun stops shining—like it does every single night.

So, unlike reliable and flexible natural gas, solar and wind require large-scale storage solutions: massive banks of batteries that are hardly environmentally friendly but are also extremely expensive. And since batteries don’t last forever, they add to both the initial expense and maintenance costs during the life of a solar or wind energy generating station.

The same problem exists with electric cars. The sticker price on EVs is considerably higher than for conventional gas-operated cars, and the so-called savings over time assume that the electric power for recharging is free. But it isn’t and power costs are rising almost as fast as gas prices.

Factors such as these are consistently ignored by Kerry and other “green” energy activists.

To genuinely evaluate dissimilar energy sources and provide an apples-to-apples comparison, the U.S. Energy Information Administration uses the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and the Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS). These measures consider the initial costs, the lifespan of generation and storage systems, maintenance and fuel costs, decommissioning expenses, subsidies, etc., and compare that to how much electricity is produced over a power plant’s lifetime.

The numbers don’t lie: “green” energy is a complete waste of resources.

The LCOE and LCOS for solar and on-shore wind farms are four times as expensive as natural gas. But offshore wind takes the cake—it’s six times as expensive as natural gas.

Imagine paying four to six times as much every month for the same electricity! That’s the green paradise world that the Biden administration wants for America.

Yet, it’s even worse than that because electric power costs greatly affect the cost of producing nearly everything else. In the case of producing aluminum, for example, a third of the total production cost is electricity alone.

Imagine what quadrupling electricity prices would do to the prices of all the goods and services that people buy. If you think inflation is bad now, just wait until the nation is dependent on wind and solar—then you’ll see REAL price increases.

And despite official government data contradicting their own claims, the Biden administration—including Kerry—continues spouting simple untruths on wind and solar. They hope that no one will check their fantastic facts.

To the left, wanting it to be true, makes it true.

All the while, the middle class is being crushed by $4-a-gallon gasoline and businesses everywhere are buckling under $5-per-gallon diesel. The Wall Street Journal warns that electric power blackouts could be coming because of overreliance on wind and solar power.

At some point, if this push for green energy continues, the whole nation will start to look like California, where gas is $6 a gallon, the lights go out, and electric cars are stranded because of rolling blackouts. If that’s our “green” future, then Americans should want nothing to do with it.

Stephen Moore is a distinguished fellow in economics at the Heritage Foundation, and E.J. Antoni is a research fellow in Heritage’s Center for Data Analysis. Moore is a co-founder of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, where Antoni is a senior fellow.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or Zero Hedge.

 

[raven]

The next crisis is always bigger than the one before

 

[marsh]

The Globalists: Here is the full roster of Davos 2022 attendees

The World Economic Forum (WEF) is the ideas shop for the ruling class.

dossier.substack.com

The Globalists: Here is the full roster of Davos 2022 attendees
The World Economic Forum is the ideas and narratives shop for the ruling class, and Davos is where it all goes down.

Jordan Schachtel

Davos 2022 includes the usual components of WEF’s “you’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy” totalitarian eco statist agenda. Topics discussed and panels at the 2022 meeting will include:

Experience the future of cooperation: The Global Collaboration Village
Staying on Course for Nature Action
Future-proofing Health Systems
Accelerating the Reskilling Revolution (for the “green transition”)
The ‘Net’ in Net Zero
The Future of Globalization
Unlocking Carbon Markets

And of course, a Special Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

The American contingent will include 25 politicians and Biden Administration officials. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo will join Climate Czar John Kerry as the White House representatives there. They will be joined by 12 democrat and 10 republican politicians, including 7 senators and two state governors

Without further delay, I’ve provided the entire list of attendees who are showing up to Davos next week. I’ll list the Americans below and the rest are linked below that in an attached document.

Gina Raimondo Secretary of Commerce of USA USA
John F. Kerry Special Presidential Envoy for Climate of the United States of America
Bill Keating Congressman from Massachusetts (D)
Daniel Meuser Congressman from Pennsylvania (R)
Madeleine Dean Congresswoman from Pennsylvania (D
Ted Lieu Congressman from California (D)
Ann Wagner Congresswoman from Missouri (R)
Christopher A. Coons Senator from Delaware (D)
Darrell Issa Congressman from California (R)
Dean Phillips Congressman from Minnesota (D)
Debra Fischer Senator from Nebraska (R)
Eric Holcomb Governor of Indiana (R)
Gregory W. Meeks Congressman from New York (D)
John W. Hickenlooper Senator from Colorado (D)
Larry Hogan Governor of Maryland (R)
Michael McCaul Congressman from Texas (R)
Pat Toomey Senator from Pennsylvania (R)
Patrick J. Leahy Senator from Vermont (D)
Robert Menendez Senator from New Jersey (D)
Roger F. Wicker Senator from Mississippi (R)
Seth Moulton Congressman from Massachusetts (D)
Sheldon Whitehouse Senator from Rhode Island (D)
Ted Deutch Congressman from Florida (D)
Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami (R)
Al Gore Vice-President of the United States (1993-2001) (D)

Full list of confirmed attendees of 2022 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Here’s the PDF File in case the link goes down:

Wef Am22 List Of Confirmed Pfs 2
229KB ∙ PDF File

See the full program here

 

[marsh]

Twenty Republican Attorneys General Argue HR1 Is Unconstitutional - The Ohio Star

Twenty Republican attorneys general argue that HR1, the “For the People Act,” which passed the U.S. House late in the night on Wednesday, is unconstitutional.

theohiostar.com

Biden’s Plan to Surrender U.S. Health Sovereignty to ‘Corrupt, Chinese Communist Party Entity’ World Health Organization Draws Fire

May 20, 2022 Susan Berry, PhD

Many constitutionalists, lawmakers, and healthcare professionals are sounding the alarm over the Biden administration’s plan to forfeit the United States’ decision-making power over its healthcare policies to the World Health Organization (WHO), an organization Representative Chip Roy’s office (R-TX) calls a “corrupt, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) entity.”

In January 2021, Roy introduced HR 419, which seeks to end U.S. taxpayer funding of the WHO, an agency of the United Nations. However, in recent days more lawmakers have signed on as co-sponsors, since proposed amendments by the Biden administration’s Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to the WHO’s International Health Regulations are scheduled to be voted upon May 22-28 at the World Health Assembly.

The amendments seek to surrender the power of the United States to declare and launch its own response to an infectious disease episode, within its own borders, to the authority of the United Nations bureaucracy.

“Under NO circumstance should US taxpayer dollars EVER fund a corrupt, CCP-dominated entity like the WHO,” Roy’s office tweeted.



“Americans deserve better and should not have to fund an organization who has repeatedly bowed down to China,” asserted Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL)



And Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-TN) observed the WHO “continues to parrot the Chinese Communist Party and NOT A SINGLE CENT of American tax dollars should be used to help them as they put the world in harms [sic] way.”



Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), ranking member of the House Global Health Subcommittee, released a statement Wednesday also urging Americans to contact their members of Congress about the Biden administration’s “absurd proposal to surrender U.S. sovereignty to the corrupt World Health Organization (WHO).”

Smith referred to the move as an “egregious breach of constitutional principle,” and added, “This never would have happened under President Trump’s watch.”

The congressman explained that, at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the WHO “caved to pressure from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and enabled China to hoodwink the world by providing tremendous cover to the CCP’s deadly lie that the coronavirus was not transmissible from person to person, even after being informed of the truth by Taiwan.”

Smith condemned the “alarming” amendments offered by America’s current federal government officials to cede control of its sovereignty to the WHO:

Instead of demanding accountability from the WHO and its Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus for their complicity in the spread of COVID, as I argued two years ago, the Biden Administration seeks to turn over American sovereignty and decision-making, potentially subjecting us to the CCP’s ongoing malign influence.

Asserting the amendments “would grant new unilateral authority to Director-General Tedros to declare a public health crisis in the United States or other sovereign nations, without any consultation with the U.S. or any other WHO member,” Smith added:

Specifically, the Biden Amendment would strike the current regulation that requires the WHO to ‘consult with and attempt to obtain verification from the State Party in whose territory the event is allegedly occurring in,’ ceding the United States’ ability to declare and respond to an infectious disease outbreak within the United States dependent on the judgment of a corrupt and complicit UN bureaucracy.

In May 2020, former President Donald Trump terminated the U.S.’s relationship with the WHO and froze its funding over its favoring of China and the UN health agency’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which originated in China.

“The world is now suffering as a result of the misfeasance of the Chinese government,” Trump said.

As Fox News reported, the U.S. had been the top contributing nation to the WHO at about $450 million annually, while China had been contributing about $50 million before Beijing announced it would add $2 billion in funds.

“This is one of those things that sounds like science fiction,” virologist Dr. Robert Malone told Steve Bannon on his show WarRoom. “It’s hard to believe that the president of the United States and his administration are intentionally undermining the Constitution, but that’s what it is, as far as I’m concerned.”

Video on website 21:04 min

At his Substack column Tuesday, Malone, the inventor of mRNA and DNA vaccines, explained further the key issues regarding both the proposed amendments and the separate “pandemic treaty”:

On January 18th 2022, the United States Department of Health and Human Services proposed amendments to the IHR. These amendments give control over the declaration of a public health emergency in any member state to the WHO Director-General – even over the objection of the member state. The Director-General communicated the text of the proposed amendments on 20 January 2022, via a circular letter to State Parties.
…
Properly understood, the proposed IHR amendments are directed towards establishing a globalist architecture of worldwide health surveillance, reporting, and management. Consistent with a top-down view of governance, the public will not have opportunities to provide input or criticism concerning the amendments. This, of course, is a direct violation of the basic tenets of democracy and can be compared to the separate new pandemic treaty.

A Twitter thread by Critical Sway provided a summary of the serious consequences of the “pandemic treaty” for Americans:

If enacted, the WHO will have far greater authority in relation to your health. Particularly if there is a pandemic. And they will inevitably declare one … The plan is to increase power and funding for the WHO. It would solidify the WHO as “the directing & coordinating authority on international health.”

The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) has also issued an action alert to Americans to urge their members of Congress to support Roy’s bill.



“[W]hile initially assisting the Chinese Communist Party in suppressing details about COVID’s origins and transmissibility, the WHO later promoted China’s unconscionable lockdowns and other violations of human rights as measures other nations should emulate,” AAPS explained.
“As demonstrated by the WHO response to COVID-19, the organization is not only ineffective, but pushes policies and agendas that are harmful to American patients and our nation’s well-being,” the organization of American doctors asserted.
– – –

 

[marsh]

Tucker Carlson and Dr. Scott Atlas Tag Team to Expose the Existential Threat of the Biden-WHO "Pandemic" Treaty - The Liberty Daily

If you love the news, check out The Liberty Daily's homepage. Fox News host Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue Thursday night to expose the Pandemic Treaty, the World Health Organization’s move to usurp national sovereignty and take control of healthcare decisions across the globe. He...

thelibertydaily.com

Tucker Carlson and Dr. Scott Atlas Tag Team to Expose the Existential Threat of the Biden-WHO “Pandemic” Treaty

By J.D. Rucker • May. 19, 2022

Fox News host Tucker Carlson used his opening monologue Thursday night to expose the Pandemic Treaty, the World Health Organization’s move to usurp national sovereignty and take control of healthcare decisions across the globe. He noted how the Biden regime is pushing it all and had Dr. Scott Atlas on to go into more details.

As I covered recently, some in conservative and alternative media are claiming that the Pandemic Treaty is a nothingburger, which I debunked. This is not a nothingburger. The Pandemic Treaty, which Carlson laid out tonight, is truly an existential threat that is being labeled as a “conspiracy theory.” Listen to his monologue below, but first, here’s his conversation with Dr. Scott Atlas, a former member of the White House coronavirus task force.

Watch:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527446916543438849

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1527446916543438849
3:17 min

“First, as you said, the World Health Organization, as well as other organizations like World Economic Forum, are trying to set rules that countries must obey. Tedros himself said it, ‘They’re obligatory,'” Dr. Atlas began. “And this is not the role of any international organization, frankly.

These organizations, including national organizations like the CDC, are supposed to be advisory. They’re not supposed to set rules and laws. So that is a complete reversal of what should happen in a free society, if we live in one.”

Dr. Atlas rose to prominence as President Trump’s favorite medical advisor in the White House, but he was constantly excluded and even attacked by his peers who didn’t want a freedom-loving rabble-rouser in their midst.

“Secondly, the World Health Organization has been an egregious failure,” he continued. “You outlined some of it, but it began at the beginning of the pandemic when they were grossly wrong by orders of magnitude about the basic data about infection fatality rate. They politicized and were completely impotent in doing the one thing they should have done, which was getting transparency of information from China at the beginning when it counted.”

As many of you remember, the World Health Organization was rightly accused of pandering to the Chinese Communist Party to help them cover up their coronavirus leak. They even went so far as to attack President Trump for imposing travel bans from China even though that was clearly the right move.

“They disregarded all the evidence that was known in biology about asymptomatic spread being not that important, about masks, etc,” Dr. Atlas said. “They attempted to redefine basic biology by changing the website definition of ‘herd immunity’ to get rid of the immunity from recovery from infection and make it seem like it was only from a vaccine. It was completely agenda-driven pseudoscience, what they would call misinformation.”

It seems insane to those who are paying attention that the World Health Organization has any trust at all given to them, yet the Biden regime is busy trying to prop them up and empower them even more. The people are becoming increasingly aware of the evil agenda they have, and Dr. Atlas noted this in his discussion with Carlson.

“They totally squandered their trust,” he said. “They do not at all deserve any further empowerment. And what you said is also true about what they’ve done during the pandemic.

The centralized power organizations, including our own government, were reckless. They were unethical in doing the lockdowns. Why is that unethical? Because in public health, what they did was they imposed a policy that actually was more harmful to the very vulnerable people that they purport to care about. Children, the poor people, and low-income groups, were harmed but the affluent were spared by their policies. And they did all this by usurping all the known laws and constitutional rights and freedoms that people in free societies have.”

Dr. Atlas then went on to call for people to step up and demand that our leaders put an end to this charade.

“We need to restore with more public oversight and more decentralization of power the advisory role,” he said. “We cannot have these kinds of increasing power organizations grabbing power over free citizens. We need the agencies just for information, but it’s got to be transparent. We have to have oversight of their information and absolutely zero obligatory authority over any individuals or any nation.”

Here’s Tucker’s show:

View: https://youtu.be/371I76vBpQ8
29:13 min

Please don’t listen to those who claim the Pandemic Treaty isn’t a big concern. Whether intentionally or not, they are downplaying one of the most important moves the globalist elites are in the process of making.

 

[marsh]

12 Nightmarish Economic Trends That We Should Expect to See During the 2nd Half of 2022

If you thought that the economic news was crazy during the first half of 2022, just wait until we get

uncanceled.news

12 Nightmarish Economic Trends That We Should Expect to See During the 2nd Half of 2022

by Michael Snyder
May 19, 2022



If you thought that the economic news was crazy during the first half of 2022, just wait until we get to the second half. So many of the problems that we are experiencing now are going to continue to intensify, and Americans are becoming more pessimistic about economic conditions with each passing day. In fact, as you will see below, a whopping 85 percent of us believe that it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that the economy will go through a recession at some point during the next year. Of course the truth is that if all we have to suffer through is a “recession”, we would be extremely fortunate. Our leaders have lost control of the economy, and many of us are extremely concerned about what is coming next. The following are 12 nightmarish economic trends that we should expect to see during the second half of 2022…

#1 Gas prices will continue to surge higher, and many Americans will be shocked by how high they eventually go. If you can believe it, in Washington State at least one gas station has now reprogrammed their gas pumps “to make room for double-digit pricing”…

At the 76 Gas Station in Auburn, Washington located at 1725 Auburn Way North, gas pumps have been reprogrammed to make room for double-digit pricing. In March, they still had single-digit programming.

A spokesperson at 76 confirmed to The Post Millennial that the gas pumps were reprogrammed to allocate for double-digit pricing. Although not confirming that they are expecting prices to increase up to $10.00 or more, the current trend suggests the possibility.

Supplies of fuel will continue to get even tighter in the months ahead. Earlier today, I heard from a reader on the east coast and a reader in the middle of the country that both said that diesel is now being rationed where they live. So far, I have not been able to confirm that this is happening on a widespread basis.

#2 We are being warned that there could be extended blackouts in some parts of the nation during the summer months. It is being reported that the middle of the country is particularly at risk…

About 100 million Americans face power blackouts this summer as roasting weather, overstretched powerplants and unreliable green energy sources combine to create a perfect storm of problems.

States stretching from the Great Lakes to the Pacific Ocean which are home to tens of millions of Americans could have a hard time producing enough power for their residents this summer.

The ‘MISO’ part of America’s power grid – whose full name is the Midcontinent Independent System Operator is at greatest risk of a large-scale outage.

#3 Everyone pretty much agrees that food prices will continue to rise. Of course they have already reached levels that are absolutely insane…

Take the case of Jeff Good, who co-founded three restaurants in Jackson, Mississippi. Around 18 months ago, a 40-pound box of chicken wings cost him about $85. Now, it can go as high as roughly $150. Expenses for cooking oil and flour have nearly doubled in the past five months, he said. But it’s not just ingredient prices going up. He’s paying more for labor and services, too. Even the company that maintains his air conditioners has tacked on a $40 fuel charge per visit. To cope, he’s raised menu prices.

A 15-piece order of chicken wings, a signature dish at his Sal and Mookie’s pizzeria, went for $13.95 before Covid hit. Now, wing costs can vary so much they’re labeled at “market price,” like some restaurants do with lobster. At peaks, the menu price can be be about $27.95 — but that represents a barely-there margin — and Good estimates the “real cost” is closer to about $34.

He’s trying to decide whether to keep raising prices or take wings off the menu.

I don’t know about you, but I don’t ever see myself paying 34 dollars for an order of chicken wings.

#4 As our supply chains endure even more stress, shortages will continue to intensify. The extreme baby formula shortage that we are witnessing right now is just a preview of coming attractions…

Two children in Memphis have been hospitalized after needing IV fluids and nutritional support due to the baby formula shortage.

The preschooler and toddler, both from different families, were rushed to Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital after their parents failed to secure formula as shelves across America go bare.

#5 The UN is telling us that we are heading into the worst global food crisis since World War II. In some parts of Africa, the number of people suffering from “extreme hunger” has already more than doubled…

More than 23 million people are experiencing extreme hunger in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, according to a new report by Oxfam and Save the Children. That’s up from over 10 million last year.

The region’s worst drought in 40 years is being exacerbated by conflict and the pandemic. And the war in Ukraine has sent food prices soaring to record levels.

#6 Widespread hunger will almost certainly lead to more civil unrest. Recent events in Sri Lanka give us an indication of what may be coming…

Protesters in Sri Lanka have burned down homes belonging to 38 politicians as the crisis-hit country plunged further into chaos, with the government ordering troops to “shoot on sight.”

Police in the island nation said Tuesday that in addition to the destroyed homes, 75 others have been damaged as angry Sri Lankans continue to defy a nationwide curfew to protest against what they say is the government’s mishandling of the country’s worst economic crisis since 1948.

#7 The Federal Reserve is likely to continue to aggressively raise interest rates. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is openly admitting that his institution’s battle against inflation could cause “some pain” in the months ahead…

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned Tuesday the U.S. could feel “some pain” as the central bank raises interest rates to fight inflation, insisting the Fed would do whatever it takes to curb price growth.

During a live interview for The Wall Street Journal’s “Future of Everything” summit, Powell said the Fed will continue to raise interest rates until inflation starts to fall and the forces driving prices higher fade, even at the risk of a deeper economic slowdown.

#8 Higher interest rates will be devastating for the housing market in the United States. And that is very troubling news, because home sales have already fallen for three months in a row…

Home sales fell for the third consecutive month in April as rising mortgage rates and affordability challenges pushed many would-be home buyers out of the market.

#9 Defaults are likely to continue to rise higher. Just like we saw right before the last financial crisis, defaults on subprime loans are really starting to surge…

Consumers with low credit scores are falling behind on payments for car loans, personal loans and credit cards, a sign that the healthiest consumer lending environment on record in the U.S. is coming to an end.

The share of subprime credit cards and personal loans that are at least 60 days late is rising faster than normal, according to credit-reporting firm Equifax. In March, those delinquencies rose month over month for the eighth time in a row, nearing their prepandemic levels. Delinquencies on subprime car loans and leases hit an all-time high in February, based on Equifax’s tracking that goes back to 2007.

#10 As the economy slows down, we should expect layoffs to increase and jobless claims will eventually start to spike. In fact, we just learned that they have now hit a four month high.

#11 Needless to say, all of this bad economic news is going to be really bad for stock prices. The S&P 500 has already nearly fallen into bear market territory, and many believe that what we have witnessed so far is just the beginning.

#12 Many are warning that a recession is either already here or will arrive soon. And Americans are increasingly becoming more pessimistic about the economy. One survey that was recently conducted found that 85 percent of Americans believe that it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that there will be a recession at some point in the next year…

An overwhelming majority of Americans are expecting there to be a recession within the next year, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

The poll found that 85 percent of Americans think it is likely for the country to go through an economic recession in the next year. Of those who responded, 45 percent said it is “very likely,” and 40 percent said “somewhat likely” for a recession.

The sort of historic economic meltdown that I have been warning about for years is rapidly approaching, and the mood of the nation will dramatically shift as conditions greatly deteriorate.

Already, we are starting to see a tremendous amount of anger out there. Earlier today, I came across the following post on a very popular Internet discussion forum…

Just want to vent. I am from middle Missouri, I am a single mom of 2 teens. My day job pays well and pays the bills well, a year ago my income would support us, bills, food, gas etc. i now have to work a second job just to feed us and put gas in my car. Eggs here went from .99 a carton to 1.99, ground beef went from 2.89 a pound to 4.99, and it goes on and on. Gas went from 1.90 to 4.29 a gallon. I am out of my mind scared it will only get worse. I have democrat friends that say “that’s how the economy works”.

No it’s because Biden was giving out “covid” bucks to non working people taking advantage of the system, giving our money to Ukraine, shutting down gas lines in the US etc.

I can understand her anger.

Most Americans are working as hard as they can, but our standard of living is being systematically destroyed by the very foolish policies of our leaders.

Unfortunately, we are still only in the very early chapters of this crisis.

It looks like the second half of this year will be even more challenging than the first half, and that is going to have enormous implications for all of us.

 

[marsh]

U.N. Joins World Economic Forum Call to End Oil, Gas, and Coal Use

U.N. chief Antonio Guterres on Wednesday called for an end to global oil, gas, and coal use in favor of renewable sources.

www.breitbart.com

Climate ‘Marshall Plan’ — U.N. Joins World Economic Forum Call to End Oil, Gas, and Coal Use

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WEF/Pinterest
SIMON KENT18 May 20221,658

U.N. chief Antonio Guterres on Wednesday called for an end to oil, gas, and coal use in favor of renewable sources as part of a self-described global climate Marshall Plan.

The veteran Portuguese Socialist spoke ahead of the upcoming World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, which has already issued its own call for net-zero carbon emissions to be driven by a wider embrace of solar and wind power sources without delay.

To avoid catastrophic climate change, humanity must “end fossil fuel pollution and accelerate the renewable energy transition, before we incinerate our only home,” Guterres said in his pre-recorded remarks timed to coincide with the release of a major U.N. state-of-climate report, AFP reports.

Renewable technologies should be treated as freely available “global public goods”, unconstrained by intellectual property, he added.

The U.N. Secretary-General also called for an end to approximately half-a-trillion dollars in fossil fuel subsidies, roughly two-thirds of which go to consumers and the rest directly to industry as part of the drive to change consumer habits.



“Every minute of every day, coal, oil and gas receive roughly $11 million in subsidies,” Guterres said.

“While people suffer from high prices at the pump, the oil and gas industry is raking in billions from a distorted market,” he added. “This scandal must stop.”

For its part, the WEF has published a 10-point plan provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as a way to end oil dependence as part of its self-declared Great Reset.

It is just one further step in addressing what the WEF has already taken to calling an “existential threat to the planet.”



The plan includes everything from “car free Sundays” to “avoiding air travel” in its advice as seen below :

1. Reduce speed limits on highways by at least 10km/h
Many countries already use temporary speed limit reductions on highways, mostly to reduce congestion and/or air pollution and to improve road safety.
2. Work from home up to 3 days a week where possible
Around one-third of the jobs in advanced economies can be done from home, opening up the possibility of reducing oil demand while maintaining productivity.
3. Car-free Sundays in cities
Car-free Sundays were introduced in countries such as Switzerland, the Netherlands and West Germany during the 1973 oil crisis. Cities in other countries have used them more recently to promote public health.
4. Reduce public transport prices and incentivize walking and cycling
Investment in public transport and infrastructure to support walking and cycling has been boosted by sustainable economic recovery packages introduced in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
5. Alternate private car access to roads in large cities
Restricting private cars’ use of roads in large cities on alternate weekdays is a measure with a long track record of successful implementation around the world.
6. Increase car sharing and adopt practices to reduce fuel use
Governments can provide additional incentives by designating dedicated traffic lanes and parking spots next to public transport hubs and by reducing road tolls on higher occupancy vehicles. Such measures are in force in suburban areas of cities like Madrid and Houston, among others.
7. Promote efficient driving for freight trucks and goods deliveries
Governments can introduce so-called eco-driving techniques as part of the tuition and examination processes required to receive a driving licence and advanced driving certificates, as has been done in France and other countries.
8. Using trains instead of planes where possible
High-speed rail can substantially replace short-haul air travel on routes that offer affordable, reliable and convenient train journeys.
9. Avoid business air travel where alternative options exist
Although not all business travel by plane can be avoided, in many cases the use of virtual meetings can be an effective substitute. A reduction of around two out of every five flights taken for business purposes is feasible in the short term, based on the changes witnessed during the COVID pandemic.
10. Increase adoption of electric and other more efficient vehicles

By the end of 2021, 8.4 million electric cars were on the roads in advanced economies, building on record sales in Europe in particular. Demand for electric cars continues to be strong, on the back of plummeting costs of batteries in recent years and government support.

Already in the U.S. many of those measures have started to be implemented.

As Breitbart News reported, on Monday U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg delivered a plan for billions of dollars to be made available under his department’s new Safe Streets & Roads for All program to cities that get people to ditch their motor vehicles for alternative forms of transport. Forever.

The Biden administration is steering $5 billion in federal aid to localities carving out bike paths and wider sidewalks while pushing commuters onto public transit and cycling as an alternative to driving.



Buttigieg’s aim will be to provide a direct infusion of federal cash to communities that pledge to promote multiple users of a roadway, particularly pedestrians and bicyclists.

The argument is too many people are dying in motor accidents for that method of transport to be sustainable so people must get out of their cars – and be rewarded with taxpayer cash.

Read more about the U.N. climate Marshall Plan here

 

[marsh]

Blinken Announces $215 Million for Global Emergency Aid to Ease Food Shortages

www.theepochtimes.com

Secretary of State Antony Blinken addresses a press conference after the informal meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers on the conflict in Ukraine, in Berlin, on May 15, 2022. (John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images)

Blinken Announces $215 Million for Global Emergency Aid to Ease Food Shortages

By Naveen Athrappully
May 19, 2022 Updated: May 19, 2022

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on May 18 that the United States would be offering $215 million in emergency assistance to ease worldwide food shortages, worsened by the Ukraine war and resulting supply chain disruptions.

“Today, given the urgency of the crisis, we’re announcing another $215 million in new emergency food assistance. And we’ll do much more. We expect our Congress very soon to approve approximately $5.5 billion in additional funding for humanitarian assistance and food security,” Blinken said at the Food Security Ministerial in the United Nations headquarters.

The $5.5 billion is part of the $40 billion taxpayer-funded Ukraine aid bill passed in the House on May 10 and the Senate on May 16, and it’s currently on its way to Biden’s desk.

Blinken said governments and organizations around the world needed to combine their efforts in convincing Russia to allow for food and vital supplies to safely leave Ukraine.

“There are an estimated 22 million tons of grain sitting in silos in Ukraine right now, food that could immediately go toward helping those in need if it can simply get out of the country,” Blinken said.

Ukraine is one of the world’s top producers of agricultural commodities such as wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and sunflower oil.

Blockage of ports has contributed to a global shortage of supplies and has exacerbated food prices, which rose at their fastest pace on record in March, based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, rising 13 percent over the month to 159.3 points.

The Russian invasion “has only made an already dire situation significantly worse, with as many as 40 million people projected to be pushed into poverty and food insecurity through the end of the year,” USAID stated in a May 18 press release.

The $215 million is expected to “expand emergency food security operations in several countries already facing food insecurity as a result of conflict, drought, and other natural disasters, including Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Yemen.”


An Ethiopian woman sifts through distributed food supplies during a visit by World Food Programme (WFP) Regional Director Michael Dunford to a camp for the internally displaced in Adadle, in the Somali Region of Ethiopia, on Jan. 22, 2022. (Claire Nevill/WFP via AP)

The United States has provided nearly $2.6 billion in emergency food assistance since the Ukraine conflict started, according to USAID.

Besides food, Blinken also addressed the issue of global fertilizer shortages. He said Africa is facing increases in fertilizer costs by as much as four times, a trend that started at the beginning of the pandemic and has worsened since the war began in Ukraine.

“One way to address this is by creating incentives for countries to produce more fertilizer as the United States is doing by committing $500 million to boost U.S. production. We can also help farmers maximize fertilizer efficiency learning from advances made by countries like Ethiopia,” he said.

[COMMENT: In the past, USAID has been funneled into Soros controlled NGOs that fund color revolutions.]

 

[marsh]

Great Reset: EU 'Needs' Lockdown Restrictions to Curb Russian Oil Use

Measures akin to a COVID lockdown are needed in order to curb the EU's reliance on Russian oil, one member state has said.

www.breitbart.com

Great Reset: EU ‘Needs’ Lockdown-like Restrictions to Curb Russian Oil Use
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THIERRY ROGE/BELGA MAG/AFP via Getty Images
PETER CADDLE19 May 20222,606

Measures akin to a COVID lockdown are needed in order to curb the EU’s reliance on Russian oil, one member state has said.

Lockdown-like measures should be implemented across the European Union to curb the bloc’s reliance on Russian oil, Luxembourg’s energy minister has said.

The demand comes as the transnational bloc prepares to publish a plan aimed at weaning the EU off of fossil fuels supplied from Russia, with some nation-states such as Germany being badly addicted to the likes of natural gas provided by the state.

According to a report by Der Spiegel, Luxembourg believes that such a plan should include the introduction of an EU-wide mandatory speed limit, a bloc-wide work-from-home mandate for at least two days of the week, and for every major EU city to ban the use of cars on the weekends.

This, the minister argues, would curb the use of oil in Europe and, in turn, lower reliance on Russian fuel imports.

“What we need at EU level is an EU-wide coordinated speed limit and two days of home office per week,” said the Luxembourgish Energy Minister Claude Turmes.

“I urge the Commission not to miss the opportunity to set Europe on this path,” he continued.



None of these policy suggestions made by Luxembourg are particularly original, with each one having been by various academics and NGOs ostensibly interested in moving the west away from Russia.

One of these organisations, the International Energy Agency, has previously argued that lowering speed limits, banning car use in cities on Sunday and pushing for people to work from home could be used to curb reliance on Russian imports.

“Car-free Sundays were introduced in countries such as Switzerland, the Netherlands and West Germany during the 1973 oil crisis,” a report by the World Economic Forum on the 10-point plan read. ” Cities in other countries have used them more recently to promote public health.”

The IEA report also argues that cars should be banned from certain roads on alternating days, and that the use of high-speed trains, as opposed to air travel, should be encouraged in the hopes of getting commuters to switch to more efficient methods of long-distance travel.

While the organisation argues that these recommendations should be implemented to help the West fight Russia, the group also admits that the Climate Change agenda also plays a role in the heavy focus on reducing oil usage.

“Looking further ahead, this report also suggests a path for countries to put oil demand into structural decline in the medium term, building on measures already included in economic recovery packages introduced to deal with the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic,” the report reads.

“Adopting the immediate and longer-term recommendations would put the countries on track for a decline in oil demand consistent with what is required to reach net zero emissions by 2050,” it goes on to say.

 

[marsh]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Is The Global Debt Bubble About To Burst?

THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2022 - 04:20 PM
Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

Is the debt bubble supporting the world economy in danger of collapsing?

The years between 1981 and 2020 were very special years for the world economy because interest rates were generally falling:


Figure 1. Yields on 10-year and 3-month US Treasuries, in a chart made by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, as of May 10, 2022.

In some sense, falling interest rates meant that debt was becoming increasingly affordable. The monthly out-of-pocket expense for a new $500,000 mortgage was falling lower and lower.

Automobile payments for a new $30,000 vehicle could more easily be accommodated into a person’s budget. A business would find it more affordable to add $5,000,000 in new debt to open at an additional location. With these beneficial effects, it would be no surprise if a debt bubble were to form.

With an ever-lower cost of debt, the economy has had a hidden tailwind pushing it long between 1981 to 2020. Now that interest rates are again rising, the danger is that a substantial portion of this debt bubble may collapse. My concern is that the economy may be headed for an incredibly hard landing because of the inter-relationship between interest rates and energy prices (Figure 2), and the important role energy plays in powering the economy.


Figure 2. Chart showing the important role Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates plays in adjusting the level of “demand” (and thus the selling price) for oil. Lower interest rates make goods and services created with higher-priced oil more affordable. In addition to the items noted on the chart, US QE3 was discontinued in 2014, about the time of the 2014 oil price crash. Also, the debt bubble crash of 2008 seems to be the indirect result of the US raising short term interest rates (Figure 1) in the 2004 to 2007 period.

In this post, I will try to explain my concerns.

[1] Ever since civilization began, a combination of (a) energy consumption and (b) debt has been required to power the economy.
Under the laws of physics, energy is required to power the economy. This happens because it takes the “dissipation” of energy to perform any activity that contributes to GDP. The energy dissipated can be the food energy that a person eats, or it can be wood or coal or another material burned to provide energy. Sometimes the energy dissipated is in the form of electricity. Looking back, we can see the close relationship between total energy consumption and world total GDP.


Figure 3. World energy consumption for the period 1990 to 2020, based on energy data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy and world Purchasing Power Parity GDP in 2017 International Dollars, as published by the World Bank.

The need for debt or some other approach that acts as a funding mechanism for capital expenditures (sale of shares of stock, for example), comes from the fact that humans make investments that will not produce a return for many years. For example, ever since civilization began, people have been planting crops. In some cases, there is a delay of a few months before a crop is produced; in other cases, such as with fruit or nut trees, there can be a delay of years before the investment pays back. Even the purchase by an individual of a home or a vehicle is, in a sense, an investment that will offer a return over a period of years.

With all parts of the economy benefiting from the lower interest rates (except, perhaps, banks and others lending the funds, who are making less profit from the lower interest rates), it is easy to see why lower interest rates would tend to stimulate new investment and drive up demand for commodities.

Commodities are used in great quantity, but the supply available at any one time is tiny by comparison. A sudden increase in demand will tend to send the commodity price higher because the quantity of the commodity available will need to be rationed among more would-be purchasers. A sudden decrease in the demand for a commodity (for example, crude oil, or wheat) will tend to send prices lower. Therefore, we see the strange sharp corners in Figure 2 that seem to be related to changing debt levels and higher or lower interest rates.

[2] The current plan of central banks is to raise interest rates aggressively. My concern is that this approach will leave commodity prices too low for producers. They will be tempted to decrease or stop production.
Politicians are concerned about the price of food and fuel being too high for consumers.

Lenders are concerned about interest rates being too low to properly compensate for the loss of value of their investments due to inflation. The plan, which is already being implemented in the United States, is to raise interest rates and to significantly reverse Quantitative Easing (QE). Some people call the latter Quantitative Tightening (QT).

The concern that I have is that aggressively raising interest rates and reversing QE will lead to commodity prices that are too low for producers. There are likely to be many other impacts as well, such as the following:

• Lower energy supply, due to cutbacks in production and lack of new investment
• Lower food supply, due to inadequate fertilizer and broken supply lines
• Much defaulting debt
• Pension plans that reduce or stop payments because of debt-related problems
• Falling prices of stock
• Defaults on derivatives

[3] My analysis shows how important increased energy consumption has been to economic growth over the last 200 years. Energy consumption per capita has been growing during this entire period, except during times of serious economic distress.


Figure 4. World energy consumption from 1820-2010, based on data from Appendix A of Vaclav Smil’s Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and BP Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar energy are included in “Biofuels.”

Figure 4 shows the amazing growth in world energy consumption between 1820 and 2010. In the early part of the period, the energy used was mostly wood burned as fuel. In some parts of the world, animal dung was also used as fuel. Gradually, other fuels were added to the mix.


Figure 5. Estimated average annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods using the data underlying Figure 4, plus similar additional data through 2020.

Figure 5 takes the same information shown in Figure 4 and calculates the average approximate annual increase in world energy consumption over 10-year periods. A person can see from this chart that the periods from 1951-1960 and from 1961-1970 were outliers on the high side. This was the time of rebuilding after World War II. Many families were able to own a car for the first time. The US highway interstate system was begun. Many pipelines and electricity transmission lines were built. This building continued into the 1971-1980 period.


Figure 6. Same chart as Figure 5, except that the portion of economic growth that was devoted to population growth is shown in blue at the bottom of each 10-year period. The amount of growth in energy consumption “left over” for improvement in the standard of living is shown in red.

Figure 6 displays the same information as Figure 5, except that each column is divided into two pieces. The lower (blue) portion represents the average annual growth in population during each period. The part left over at the top (in red) represents the growth in energy consumption that was available for increases in standard of living.


Figure 7. The same information displayed in Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. Blue areas represent average annual population growth percentages during these 10-year periods. The red area is determined by subtraction. It represents the amount of energy consumption growth that is “left over” for growth in the standard of living. Captions show distressing events during periods of low increases in the portion available to raise standards of living.

Figure 7 shows the same information as Figure 6, displayed as an area chart. I have also shown some of the distressing events that happened when growth in population was, in effect, taking up essentially all of energy consumption growth. The world economy could not grow normally.

There was a tendency toward conflict. Strange events would happen during these periods, including the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union and the restrictions associated with the COVID pandemic.

The economy is a self-organizing system that behaves strangely when there is not enough inexpensive energy of the right types available to the system. Wars tend to start. Layers of government may disappear. Strange lockdowns may occur, such as the current restrictions in China.

[4] The energy situation at the time of rising interest rates in the 1960 to 1980 period was very different from today.
If we define years with high inflation rates as those with inflation rates of 5% or higher, Figure 8 shows that the period with high US inflation rates included nearly all the years from 1969 through 1982. Using a 5% inflation cutoff, the year 2021 would not qualify as a high inflation rate year.


Figure 8. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

It is only when we look at annualized quarterly data that inflation rates start spiking to high levels. Inflation rates have been above 5% in each of the four quarters ended 2022-Q1. Trade problems related to the Ukraine Conflict have tended to add to price pressures recently.


Figure 9. US inflation rates, based on Table 1.1.4 Price Index for Gross Domestic Product, published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Underlying these price spikes are increases in the prices of many commodities. Some of this represents a bounce back from artificially low prices that began in late 2014, probably related to the discontinuation of US QE3 (See Figure 2). These prices were far too low for producers.

Coal and natural gas prices have also needed to rise, as a result of depletion and prior low prices. Food prices are also rising rapidly, since food is grown and transported using considerable quantities of fossil fuels.

The main differences between that period leading up to 1980 and now are the following:

[a] The big problem in the 1970s was spiking crude oil prices. Now, our problems seem to be spiking crude oil, natural gas and coal prices. In fact, nuclear power may also be a problem because a significant portion of uranium processing is performed in Russia. Thus, we now seem to be verging on losing nearly all our energy supplies to conflict or high prices!

In the 1970s, there were many solutions to the crude oil problem, practically right around the corner. Electricity production could be switched from crude oil to coal or nuclear, with little problem, apart from building the new infrastructure. US cars were very large and fuel inefficient in the early 1970s. These could be replaced with smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles that were already being manufactured in Europe and Japan. Home heating could be transferred to natural gas or propane, to save crude oil for places where energy density was really needed.

Today, we are told that a transition to green energy is a solution. Unfortunately, this is mostly wishful thinking. At best, a transition to green energy will need a huge investment of fossil fuels (which are increasingly unavailable) over a period of at least 30 to 50 years if it is to be successful. See my article, Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer. Vaclav Smil, in his book Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, discusses the need for very long transitions because energy supply needs to match the devices using it. Furthermore, new energy types are generally only add-ons to other supply, not replacements for those supplies.

[c] The types of economic growth in (a) the 1960 to 1980 period and (b) the period since 2008 are very different. In the earlier of these periods (especially prior to 1973), it was easy to extract oil, coal and natural gas inexpensively. Inflation-adjusted oil prices of less than $20 per barrel were typical. An ever-increasing supply of this oil seemed to be available. New machines (created with fossil fuels) made workers increasingly efficient.

The economy tended to “overheat” if interest rates were not repeatedly raised (Figure 1).

While higher interest rates could be expected to slow the economy, this was of little concern because rapid growth seemed to be inevitable. The supply of finished goods and services made by the economy was growing rapidly, even with headwinds from the higher interest rates.

On the other hand, in the 2008 to 2020 period, economic growth is largely the result of financial manipulation. The system has been flooded with increasing amounts of debt at ever lower interest rates. By the time of the lockdowns of 2020, would-be workers were being paid for doing nothing. World production of finished goods and services declined in 2020, and it has had difficulty rising since. In the first quarter of 2022, the US economy contracted by -1.4%. If headwinds from higher interest rates and QT are added, the economic system is likely to encounter substantial debt defaults and increasing breakdowns of supply lines.

[5] Today’s spiking energy prices appear to be much more closely related to the problems of the 1913 to 1945 era than they are to the problems of the late 1970s.

Looking back at Figure 7, our current period is more like the period between the two world wars than the period in the 1970s that we often associate with high inflation. In both periods, the “red” portion of the chart (the portion I identify with rising standard of living), has pretty much disappeared. In both the 1913 to 1945 period and today, it is nearly all the energy supplies other than biofuels that are disappearing.

In the 1913 to 1945 period, the problem was coal. Mines were becoming increasingly depleted, but raising coal prices to pay for the higher cost of extracting coal from depleted mines tended to make the coal prohibitively expensive. Mine operators tried to reduce wages, but this was not a solution either. Fighting broke out among countries, almost certainly related to inadequate coal supplies. Countries wanted coal to supply to their citizens so that industry could continue, and so that citizens could continue heating their homes.


Figure 10. Slide prepared by Gail Tverberg showing peak coal estimates for the UK and for Germany.

As stated at the beginning of this section, today’s problem is that nearly all our energy supplies are becoming unaffordable. In some sense, wind and solar may look better, but this is because of mandates and subsidies. They are not suitable for operating the world economy within any reasonable time frame.

There are other parallels to the 1913 to 1945 period. One of the big problems of the 1930s was prices that would not rise high enough for farmers to make a profit. Oil prices in the United States were extraordinarily low then. BP 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy reports that the average oil price in 1931, in 2020 US$, was $11.08. This is the lowest inflation-adjusted price of any year back to 1865. Such a price was almost certainly too low for producers to make a profit. Low prices, relative to rising costs, have recently been problems for both farmer and oil producers.

Another major problem of the 1930s was huge income disparity. Wide income disparity is again an issue today, thanks increased specialization. Competition with unskilled workers in low wage countries is also an issue.

It is important to note that the big problem of the 1930s was deflation rather than inflation, as the debt bubble started popping in 1929.

(See website for rest of article) Is The Global Debt Bubble About To Burst? | ZeroHedge

 

[marsh]

Dave Walsh: The Fossil Fuel-Agriculture-Logistics Connection

Dave Walsh: The Fossil Fuel-Agriculture-Logistics Connection

rumble.com

8:03 min
Dave Walsh: The Fossil Fuel-Agriculture-Logistics Connection
Bannons War Room Published May 19, 2022

(Will watch and note later)

 

[marsh]

 

[marsh]

Jeffrey Tucker: WHO Treaty and Proposed Regulations

Jeffrey Tucker: WHO Treaty and Proposed Regulations

rumble.com

8:07 min
Jeffrey Tucker: WHO Treaty and Proposed Regulations
Bannons War Room Published May 20, 2022

(Tucker: The treaty is a big deal - Nation states handing pandemic control over WHO. It codifies lockdowns as official policy giving nations cover to claim just doing what WHO wants them to.

Bannon: There are people saying we're overblowing this for clicks.

Tucker: No, Article on Brownstone by Bell taking apart the Treaty point by point. (See next post) It creates a brand new global bureaucracy to declare pandemics. The WHO doesn't have a definition of pandemic so it will declare then all over the place. WHO declares and recommends controls over citizens.

If you love the way governments have treated you, you will love the regulations and treaty. They will make it very difficult for a country to deviate.)

 

[marsh]

A Primer on the WHO, the Treaty, and its Plans for Pandemic Preparedness ⋆ Brownstone Institute

A large bureaucracy dependent on pandemics to justify its own existence will find reason to declare far more pandemics in the future.

brownstone.org

A Primer on the WHO, the Treaty, and its Plans for Pandemic Preparedness

BY DAVID BELL MAY 19, 2022 POLICY, PUBLIC HEALTH 13 MINUTE READ

The World Health Organization (WHO), whose constitution defines health as ‘a state of physical, mental and social well-being, not merely the absence of disease or infirmity,’ has recently orchestrated remarkable reversals in human rights, poverty reduction, education, and physical, mental and social health indices in the name of responding to the Covid-19 pandemic.

WHO proposes to expand the mechanisms that enabled this response, diverting unprecedented resources to addressing what in terms of history and disease are rare and relatively low-impact events. This will greatly benefit those who also did well from the Covid-19 outbreak, but has different implications for the rest of us. To address it calmly and rationally, we need to understand it.

Building a new pandemic industry
The World Health Organization (WHO) and its Member States, in concert with other international institutions, is proposing, and currently negotiating, two instruments to address pandemics and widely manage aspects of global public health. Both will significantly expand the international bureaucracy that has grown over the past decade to prepare for, or respond to, pandemics, with particular emphasis on development and use of vaccines.

This bureaucracy would be answerable to the WHO, an organization that in turn is increasingly answerable, through funding and political influence, from private individuals, corporations and the large authoritarian States.

These proposed rules and structures, if adopted, would fundamentally change international public health, moving the center of gravity from common endemic diseases to relatively rare outbreaks of new pathogens, and building an industry around it that will potentially be self-perpetuating.

In the process, it will increase external involvement in areas of decision-making that in most constitutional democracies are the purview of elected governments answerable to their population.

WHO does not clearly define the terms ‘pandemic’ and ‘public health emergency’ that these new agreements, intended to have power under international law, seek to address.

Implementation will depend on the opinion of individuals – the Director General (DG) of the WHO, Regional Directors and an advisory committee that they can choose to follow or ignore.

As a ‘pandemic’ in WHO parlance does not include a requirement of severity but simply broad spread – a property common to respiratory viruses – this leaves a lot of room for the DG to proclaim emergencies and set the wheels in motion to repeat the sort of pandemic responses we have seen trialed in the past 2 years.

Responses that have been unprecedented in their removal of basic peace-time human rights, and that the WHO, Unicef and other United Nations (UN) agencies have acknowledged to cause widespread harm.

This has potential to be a boon for Big Pharma and their investors who have done so well out of the last two years, concentrating private wealth whilst increasing national indebtedness and reversing prior progress on poverty reduction.

However, it is not something that has just appeared, and is not going to make us slaves before the month is out. If we are to address this issue and restore societal sanity and balance in public health, we need to understand what we are dealing with.

Proposed International Health Regulations (IHR) amendments
The IHR amendments, proposed by the United States, build on the existing IHR that were introduced in 2005 and are binding under international law. While many are unaware of their existence, the IHR already enables the WHO DG to declare public health emergencies of international concern, and thereby recommend measures to isolate countries and restrict movement of people. The draft amendments include proposals to:

• Establish an ‘emergency committee’ to assess health threats and outbreaks and recommend responses.
• Establish a ‘Country review mechanism’ to assess compliance of countries with various recommendations / requirements of WHO regarding pandemic preparedness, including surveillance and reporting measures. This appears to be modeled on the UN’s human rights country review mechanism. Countries would then be issued with requirements to be addressed to bring them into compliance where their internal programs are considered inadequate, on the request of another State party (country).
• Expand the power of the WHO DG to declare pandemics and health emergencies, and therefore recommend border closures, interruption and removal of rights to travel and potentially internal ‘lockdown’ requirements and send teams of WHO personnel to countries to investigate outbreaks, irrespective of the findings of the emergency committee and without consent of the country where the instance is recorded.
• Reduce the usual review period for countries to internally discuss and opt out of such mechanisms to just 6 months (rather than 18 months for the original IHR), and then implement them after a 6-month notice period.
• Empower Regional Directors, of which there are 6, to declare regional ‘public health emergencies,’ irrespective of a decision by the DG.

These amendments will be discussed and voted on at the World Health Assembly on May 22-28, 2022. They only require only a simple majority of countries present to come into law, consistent with Article 60 of the WHO constitution. For clarity, this means countries such as Niue, with 1,300 people, have an equal weight on the voting floor as India, with 1.3 billion people. Countries must then signal intent to opt out of the new amendments within 6 months.
Once approved by the WHA, these measures will become legally binding. There will be heavy pressure applied to governments to comply with the dictates of the WHO DG and the unelected bureaucrats that comprise the organization, and thereby also the external actors who are influential in WHO decision-making processes.

Proposed WHO pandemic ‘treaty’
The WHO proposes a new ‘instrument’ to allow it to manage pandemics, with force of a convention under international law. This has been formally discussed within WHO since early 2021, and a special session of the WHA in November 2021 recommended it go to a review process, with a draft to be presented to the World Health Assembly meeting in Q2 2023.

This proposed treaty would give WHO powers to:

• Investigate epidemics within countries,
• Recommend or even require border closures,
• Potentially recommend travel restrictions on individuals,
• Impose measures recommended by the WHO which, based on Covid-19 experience, may include ‘lockdowns,’ prevention of employment, disruption of family life and internal travel, and mandated masks and vaccination,
• Involve non-state actors (e.g., private corporations) in data gathering and predictive modeling to influence and guide pandemic responses; and in implementing, including providing commodities for, the response;
• Impose censorship through control of, or restrictions on, information the WHO considers to be ‘mis-information’ or ‘dis-information’, which may include criticism of the measures WHO imposes.

Notably, it envisions the setting up of a large entity within WHO to support permanent staff whose purpose is to undertake and enforce the above measures. This sounds very similar to the ‘GERM’ entity proposed recently by Mr Bill Gates, a wealthy US software developer with major pharmaceutical investments, who is the second largest funder of the WHO and one of a number of ‘billionaires’ who have greatly increased personal wealth during the Covid-19 response.

The proposed treaty would prioritize vertical structures and pharmaceutical approaches to pandemics, reflecting approaches by Gavi and CEPI, two organizations set up in the past decade in parallel to the WHO. It would create another bureaucratic structure on pandemics, not answerable directly to any taxpayer base, but imposing further support, reporting and compliance requirements.

Process, acceptance and implementation
These two mechanisms for increasing direct WHO control of pandemics have strong backing from private sector funders of the WHO, and from many national governments, starting with Western governments who adopted Covid draconian measures. To come into practice they must be adopted by the WHA and then be agreed, or ratified, by national governments.

The proposed IHR amendments modify an existing mechanism. A simple majority of States present at the WHA voting against them at the May 2022 meeting would also reject them, but this appears unlikely. To prevent their application, sufficient individual countries will need to signal non-acceptance or reservations after the coming WHA and WHO DG’s notice of adoption, so probably before the end of November 2022.

With regard to the proposed treaty, a two-thirds majority at the 2023 WHA will be required for its adoption, after which it will be subject to national ratification by processes which vary according to national norms and constitutions.

Funding for the large increase in bureaucracy proposed to support both mechanisms will be necessary – this may be partially diverted from other disease areas but will almost certainly require new, regular funding. Other mechanisms in parallel are already being discussed, with the World Bank also proposed as the home for a similar bureaucracy to manage pandemic preparedness, and the G20 mulling their own mechanism.

It is unclear whether these would be tied into the WHO’s proposed treaty and IHR mechanisms or be presented as a ‘rival’ approach. The G20 task force of the WB and WHO suggest a $10.5 billion additional annual budget for pandemic preparedness is required. With such potential financing on offer, and the promise of building powerful institutions around this pandemic preparedness agenda, there is going to be much enthusiasm and momentum, not least from institutional staff and the global health community in general, who will sense lucrative employment and grant opportunities.

While all this depends on money being available, a refusal of countries to fund may not be sufficient to prevent it, as there is considerable private and corporate interest in the treaty and related proposals. The same entities that benefited heavily financially from the Covid-19 response will also stand to benefit from an increased frequency of similar responses.

Whilst pandemics are historically rare, the existence of a large bureaucracy dependent on their declaration and response, coupled with the clear gains to be made by influential funders of the WHO, raise a strong risk that the bar to declaring emergencies, and imposing human rights restrictions on States, will be far lower than before.

Independent States are not however directly subject to the WHO, and adopting these amendments and treaties will not automatically allow the WHO to send teams across borders.'

Treaties must be ratified according to national processes and constitutions. If accepted by the WHA, it will however be difficult for individual States to avoid compliance unless they are particularly influential on the WHO itself.

International financial agencies, such as the IMF and World Bank, can also exert considerable pressure on non-complying States, potentially tying loans to implementation and commodity purchase as the World Bank has done for the COVID-19 response.

The IHR amendments also allow measures to be taken such as interrupting international travel that can be economically very harmful to small States, irrespective of the State providing permission. Powerful States that are highly influential on the DG election may also in practice be subject to different levels of implementation than smaller ones.

There seems at least two feasible scenarios for preventing the adoption of the two new mechanisms.

Firstly, the populations in democratic donor States, who have most to lose in terms of autonomy, sovereignty and human rights and whose taxes will predominantly fund these institutions, can stimulate open debate leading to decisions of national governments to reject the treaty at the WHA, and/or otherwise refuse to ratify.

Secondly, large blocs of countries could refuse to ratify or subsequently comply, making the treaty and IHR amendments unworkable. The latter is conceivable if, for instance, African nations perceive all this as a form of neo-colonialism that needs to be fought in the name of independence.

read more of this article on the website Jeffrey Tucker: WHO Treaty and Proposed Regulations

 

[marsh]

The WHO Changes Guidelines to Favor Lockdowns ⋆ Brownstone Institute

The report says this recommendation will be incorporated into the WHO’s “normative work," meaning it will be part of official WHO guidance.

brownstone.org

BROWNSTONE » BROWNSTONE INSTITUTE ARTICLES » THE WHO CHANGES GUIDELINES TO FAVOR LOCKDOWNS

The WHO Changes Guidelines to Favor Lockdowns
BY WILL JONES MAY 18, 2022 POLICY 4 MINUTE READ

The World Health Organisation intends to make lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions intended to curb viral spread part of official pandemic guidance.

The revelation comes in a report scheduled to go to the WHO’s World Health Assembly later this month. This is not part of new pandemic treaty and does not require the endorsement of member states. The report says the implementation is already underway.

Many have raised the alarm about a new WHO pandemic treaty. However, as I’ve noted previously (and as Michael Senger notes here), there isn’t a new pandemic treaty on the table. Rather, there are amendments to the existing treaty, the International Health Regulations 2005, plus other recommendations (131 in all) put forward in a report from the Working Group on Strengthening WHO Preparedness and Response to Health Emergencies.

Most of these amendments and recommendations relate to information and resource sharing and preparation for future pandemics; none of them directly interferes with state sovereignty in the sense of allowing the WHO to impose or lift measures. However, that doesn’t mean they’re not dangerous, as they endorse and codify the awful errors of the last two years, beginning with China’s Hubei lockdown on January 23rd 2020.

The recommendations in the report originate from WHO review panels and committees and were sent out in a survey in December 2021 to member states and stakeholders to seek their views.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions appear three times in the recommendations, once under “equity” and once under “finance,” where states are urged to ensure “adequate investment in” and “rapid development, early availability, effective and equitable access to novel vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics and non-pharmaceutical interventions for health emergencies, including capacity for testing, scaled manufacturing and distribution”.

While rapid development and early availability of non-pharmaceutical interventions sounds worrying in itself, it could be interpreted in a number of ways by states.

Where it really gets alarming, however, is in the “leadership and governance” section. LPPPR 29 states (emphasis added):

Apply non-pharmaceutical public health measures systematically and rigorously in every country at the scale the epidemiological situation requires. All countries to have an explicit evidence-based strategy agreed at the highest level of government to curb COVID-19 transmission.

The requirement that a country’s pandemic strategy must aim to curb viral transmission is a major change from the current guidance. The U.K.’s existing pandemic preparedness strategy, prepared in line with previous WHO recommendations, is completely clear that no attempt should be made to stop viral transmission as it will not be possible and will waste valuable resources:

It will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic influenza virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so.
It almost certainly will not be possible to contain or eradicate a new virus in its country of origin or on arrival in the U.K. The expectation must be that the virus will inevitably spread and that any local measures taken to disrupt or reduce the spread are likely to have very limited or partial success at a national level and cannot be relied on as a way to ‘buy time’.

It will not be possible to stop the spread of, or to eradicate, the pandemic influenza virus, either in the country of origin or in the U.K., as it will spread too rapidly and too widely.

But now the WHO says that curbing viral transmission is to be the aim of pandemic response. This is a disaster.

Worse, the report says this recommendation will be incorporated into the WHO’s “normative work,” meaning it will be part of official WHO guidance to states in responding to a pandemic.

Worse still, it says it’s already being implemented – it doesn’t need a treaty or the agreement of member states to do this, it’s already happening.

Expect to see new guidance appearing at the international and national levels over the coming months and years which incorporate this presumption that restrictions should be imposed to curb viral spread. This is despite the last two years only confirming the wisdom of the WHO’s previous guidance that this is not possible and not worth the attempt.

This matter must be raised at the highest levels so that lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions are kept out of all pandemic planning.

Sign the parliamentary petition against the latest moves by the WHO here – now at over 121,000 signatures.