INTL Latin America and the Islands: Politics, Economics, Military - January 2024

[Plain Jane]

December 2023 thread:

INTL - Latin America and the Islands: Politics, Economics, Military - December 2023

November's thread: https://www.timebomb2000.com/xf/index.php?threads/latin-america-and-the-islands-politics-economics-military-november-2024.639549/#post-9958542 https://apnews.com/article/nicaragua-migrants-emigration-1e291ec370efa30842e576e5cab39ca5 A new study says about half of...

www.timebomb2000.com

Venezuela says troops will stay deployed until British military vessel leaves waters off Guyana

Venezuela says it will continue to deploy nearly 6,000 troops until a British military vessel sent to neighboring Guyana leaves the coast of the two South American nations.

apnews.com

Venezuela says troops will stay deployed until British military vessel leaves waters off Guyana​

MEGAN JANETSKY
Updated 4:57 PM EST, December 30, 2023
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MEXICO CITY (AP) — Venezuela said Saturday it will continue to deploy nearly 6,000 troops until a British military vessel sent to neighboring Guyana leaves the waters off the coast of the two South American nations.

In a video posted to X, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino appeared surrounded by military officers in front of a marked up map of Venezuela and Guyana, a former British colony.

Padrdino said the forces are “safeguarding our national sovereignty.”

“Armed forces have been deployed not just in the east of the country, but across the entire territory,” he said. “They will be there until this British imperialist boat leaves the disputed waters between Venezuela and Guyana.”

The Defense Ministry confirmed to The Associated Press that the video was made at a military base in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas.



The video comes after weeks of tensions between the two countries over Venezuela’s renewed claim to a region in Guyana known as Essequibo, a sparsely populated stretch of land roughly the size of Florida that is rich in oil and minerals. Operations generate some $1 billion a year for the impoverished country of nearly 800,000 people that saw its economy expand by nearly 60% in the first half of this year.

Venezuela has long argued it was cheated out of the territory when Europeans and the U.S. set the border. Guayana, which has controlled the zone for decades, says the original agreement was legally binding and the dispute should be decided by the International Court of Justice in the Netherlands.

The century-old dispute was recently reignited with the discovery of oil in Guyana, and has escalated since Venezuela reported that its citizens voted in a Dec. 3 referendum to claim Essequibo, which makes up two-thirds of its smaller neighbor.

Critics of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro say the socialist leader is using the tensions to distract from internal turmoil and stoke nationalism in the lead up to presidential elections next year.

In recent weeks, the leaders of Guyana and Venezuela promised in a tense meeting that neither side would use threats or force against the other, but failed to reach agreement on how to address the bitter dispute.

Tensions came to another head with Friday’s arrival in Guyana of the Royal Navy patrol ship HMS Trent, which officials said had been taking part in an operation combatting drug smuggling in the Caribbean near the coast of Guyana. Most recently used to intercept pirates and drug smugglers off Africa, the ship is equipped with cannons and a landing pad for helicopters and drones and can carry around 50 marines.

Maduro said the ship’s deployment violates the shaky agreement between Venezuela and Guyana, calling its presence a threat to his country. In response, Maduro ordered Venezuela’s military — including air and naval forces — to conduct exercises near the disputed area.

“We believe in diplomacy, in dialogue and in peace, but no one is going to threaten Venezuela,” Maduro said. “This is an unacceptable threat to any sovereign country in Latin America.”

Guyana’s government rejected Maduro’s claims, with officials saying that the visit was a planned activity aimed at improving the nation’s defense capabilities and that the ship’s visit would continue as scheduled.

During talks earlier in December, Guyanese President Irfaan Ali said his nation reserved its right to work with partners to ensure the defense of his country. Guyana has a military of only 3,000 soldiers, 200 sailors and four small patrol boats known as Barracudas, while Venezuela has about 235,000 active military personnel in its army, air force, navy and national guard.

“Nothing that we do or have done is threatening Venezuela,” Guyana’s vice president, Bharrat Jagdeo, told reporters in Georgetown, the nation’s capital.

 

[Plain Jane]

Zapatista indigenous rebel movement marks 30 years since its armed uprising in southern Mexico

Members and supporters of the Zapatista indigenous rebel movement are celebrating the 30th anniversary of their brief armed uprising in southern Mexico.

apnews.com

Zapatista indigenous rebel movement marks 30 years since its armed uprising in southern Mexico​

7 of 10 |
Members of the Zapatista National Liberation Army, EZLN, attend an event marking the 30th anniversary of the Zapatista uprising in Dolores Hidalgo, Chiapas, Mexico, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)
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8 of 10 |
Members of the Zapatista National Liberation Army, EZLN, attend an event marking the 30th anniversary of the Zapatista uprising in Dolores Hidalgo, Chiapas, Mexico, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)
Read More



BY EDGAR H. CLEMENTE
Updated 1:17 PM EST, January 1, 2024
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OCOSINGO, Mexico (AP) — Members and supporters of the Zapatista indigenous rebel movement celebrated the 30th anniversary of their brief armed uprising in southern Mexico on Monday even as their social base erodes and violence spurred by drug cartels encroaches on their territory.

Hundreds gathered in the remote community of Dolores Hidalgo in the preceding days to mark the occasion. Some 1,500 young Zapatistas donning uniforms — black balaclavas, green caps and red kerchiefs — stood in formation listening to speeches early Monday.

Subcommander Moises — his nom de guerre — called for the Zapatistas to continue organizing themselves to fight to maintain their autonomy, freedom and democracy.


“We’re alone, like 30 years ago, because alone we have found the new path that we are going to follow,” Moises said. He noted the continuing need to defend their communities from violence. “We don’t need to kill soldiers and bad governments, but if they come we’re going to defend ourselves.”

In November, it was Subcommander Moises who sent a statement saying the Zapatistas had decided to dissolve the “autonomous municipalities” they had established.


At the time, Moises cited the waves of gang violence that have hit the area of Chiapas that borders Guatemala, but did not say whether that was a reason for dissolving the townships. The area held by the Zapatistas includes land near the border.

Details about what will replace the autonomous municipalities remain scarce, but it appears they will reorganize at more of a community level.

The Zapatistas were launched publicly on Jan. 1, 1994 to demand greater Indigenous rights.

Hilario Lorenzo Ruiz saw a number of his friends die in those early days of clashes with the Mexican army in Ocosingo, one of the five municipalities the Zapatistas took control of in January 1994.

Years later he left, demoralized by the movement’s limited results in areas like health access, education, land reform and employment.
Reflecting this week, Ruiz said perhaps the movement’s greatest achievement was drawing the Mexican government’s and the world’s attention to the impoverished state of Chiapas. While some land was redistributed, access to basic services remains poor, he said.

“Even this improvement is relative, we can’t say we’re well, a lot is lacking,” Ruiz said. “Not even in the municipal center is the health service good. We come here to the hospital and there’s nothing.”

The levels of poverty now in Chiapas remain stubbornly similar to what they were 30 years ago when the Zapatistas appeared, according to government data.

Support for the movement has eroded with time and Ruiz lamented that younger generations have not carried the same convictions to maintain the struggle.

Gerardo Alberto González, a professor in the Department of Public Health at the Southern Border College in San Cristobal de las Casas, who has observed the Zapatistas for decades, said the group successfully transitioned from armed conflict to politics and achieved a level of autonomy and recognition for Mexico’s Indigenous peoples that hadn’t existed before.

González said the Zapatistas should be lauded for their contributions to Mexico’s democratization. But after 30 years, the Zapatistas’ ranks have been thinned by outward migration and the incursion of drug traffickers, he said.

González also faulted internal power struggles and a lack of turnover in leadership positions, which have been held by many of the same people for years.

 

[Plain Jane]

Argentine court suspends labor changes in a blow to President Milei's economic plan

A court in Argentina has delivered a blow to labor rule changes announced by President Javier Milei as part of sweeping deregulation and austerity measures aimed at reviving the country’s struggling economy.

apnews.com

Argentine court suspends labor changes in a blow to President Milei’s economic plan​

Updated 6:46 PM EST, January 3, 2024
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BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — President Javier Milei suffered a judicial blow Wednesday as a court suspended labor rule changes he recently announced as part of sweeping deregulation and austerity measures aimed at reviving Argentina’s struggling economy.

The ruling by a three-judge court came on a legal challenge brought by the main union group, the General Labor Confederation, which argued that the changes affected workers rights.

Milei’s decree announced in December established several changes in labor rules, including increasing job probation from three to eight months, reducing severance compensation and allowing the possibility of dismissal for workers taking part of blockades during some protests.

Alejandro Sudera, one of the three judges, said the administration went beyond its authority to decree labor changes, which first needed to discussed and approved by Congress.

Mile’s government said it would appeal the court’s ruling.



The union confederation applauded the court, saying the decision “puts a stop to the regressive and anti-worker labor reform.”

Labor activists have questioned whether Milei, a self-described anarcho-capitalist who has long railed against the country’s “political caste,” can impose the measures using emergency decree bypass the legislature.

On Dec. 20, a few days after taking office as the new president, Milei announced sweeping initiatives to transform Argentina’s economy, including easing government regulation and allowing privatization of state-run industries. The libertarian economist made about 300 changes.

The measures have stirred protests in Buenos Aires, Argentina’s capital.

Since his inauguration Dec. 10, Milei has devalued the country’s currency by 50%, cut transport and energy subsidies, and said his government won’t renew contracts for more than 5,000 state employees hired before he took office.

He says he wants to transform Argentina’s economy and reduce the size of the state to address rising poverty and annual inflation expected to reach 200% by the end of the year.

 

[Plain Jane]

Experts warn that foreign armed forces headed to Haiti will face major obstacles

Experts are warning that foreign armed forces slated to fight gangs in Haiti this year will face multiple challenges — including widespread corruption.

apnews.com

Experts warn that foreign armed forces headed to Haiti will face major obstacles​

DÁNICA COTO
Updated 8:38 AM EST, January 5, 2024
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SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — An international armed force slated to fight violent gangs in Haiti this year will face multiple challenges including shifting gang allegiances and widespread corruption among police, politicians and the country’s elite, a new report warned Friday.

The multinational force, which will be led by Kenya, has yet to deploy as it awaits a court ruling in the east African country. If given the green light, a small team of Kenyans is expected to arrive in Haiti early this year, with a total of up to 5,000 personnel eventually participating in the mission.

Burundi, Chad, Senegal, Jamaica and Belize also have pledged troops for the multinational mission.

“Major challenges lie in wait for the mission once it is on the ground,” the report by Belgium-based International Crisis Group stated. “Haiti’s gangs could ally to battle it together. Fighting in Haiti’s ramshackle urban neighborhoods will put innocent civilians at risk. Links between corrupt police and the gangs could make it difficult to maintain operational secrecy. For all these reasons, preparation will be of critical importance.”

Some 300 gangs control an estimated 80% of the capital of Port-au-Prince, with their tentacles reaching northward into the Artibonite region, considered Haiti’s food basket.


Last year, gangs were suspected of killing nearly 4,000 people and kidnapping another 3,000, a spike compared with previous years, according to U.N. statistics. More than 200,000 people also have been forced to flee their communities as gangs set fire to homes, killing and raping their way across neighborhoods controlled by rivals.

Haiti’s National Police is no match for them: less than 10,000 officers are on duty at any time in a country of more than 11 million people. Ideally, there should be some 25,000 active officers, according to the U.N.

“The police are completely outnumbered and outgunned by the gangs,” said Diego Da Rin, with International Crisis Group, who spent nearly a month in Haiti late last year to do research for the report.

He said the people he interviewed were very skeptical that the force would even be deployed, given that it was approved by the U.N. Security Council last October, a year after Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry requested the urgent mobilization of an international armed force.

International Crisis Group also warned that authorities need to determine what will happen to gang members as the forces carry out their mission. It noted that prisons are severely overcrowded, and that Haiti’s broken judicial system will be unable to handle thousands of cases once suspected criminals are arrested.

Da Rin said he interviewed a Haitian security expert who did not want to be identified for fear of retaliation whom he quoted as saying, “Where are the prison facilities to put thousands of gang members? Is the international community suggesting that we kill thousands of lads? What structures are in place to reintegrate these young people into society? I’m appalled by what’s left unsaid.”

International Crisis Group also interviewed unidentified people it said were privy to deployment discussions who were quoted as saying that gang leaders might unite to face foreign armed forces and attack them if they perceive the mission as weak. However, they said gang leaders would be willing to talk about possible disarmament if it appears the mission could overpower them.

Last August, Jimmy Chérizier, a former police officer considered Haiti’s most powerful gang leader, said he would fight any foreign armed force if it commits abuses.


The mission also faces other challenges, according to the report.

Protecting civilians will be tricky because gang members control Port-au-Prince’s crowded slums and can easily blend in since they don’t wear uniforms or have any distinctive symbols. In addition, collusion between gangs and police will likely cause leaked information that would stonewall operations, the report stated.

International Crisis Group said it separately interviewed two sources within Haiti’s National Police who were quoted as saying that senior commanders previously managed to prevent the capture of a powerful gang leader because of his alleged links to politicians or police.

Even if the mission is successful, officials must stop the flow of weapons and ammunition into Haiti, the report stated, and sever “the strong bond between gangs and Haitian business and political elites.”

 

[Plain Jane]

End The Cuba Embargo? Biden Begs Mexico To Stop Migrant Flows, But There's A Price | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

End The Cuba Embargo? Biden Begs Mexico To Stop Migrant Flows, But There's A Price​

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, JAN 08, 2024 - 05:20 PM
As Joe Biden continues to poll in the toilet - in no small part to the border crisis he created, his administration has resorted to begging Mexico to stem the tsunami of illegal immigrants entering the United States.

In late December, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who has repeatedly maintained that the 'border is secure,' traveled to Mexico with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to beg for assistance in what officials called "preliminary" discussions with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), NBC News reports.

But there's a price!



On Friday, AMLO laid out his conditions:

• US approval for a plan to deploy $20 billion to Latin American and Caribbean countries
• Suspend the US blockade of Cuba
• Remove all sanctions against Venezuela
• Grant at least 10 million Hispanics living in the US the right to remain and work legally

These are tall demands, but the southern border could also tank Biden's chances of reelection - as the border saw a record 300,000 migrants processed by CBP in December alone.

One Biden official told NBC News that AMLO "has a very ambitious agenda," and that for some of his requests, the US Congress would need to act.

The two countries are expected to continue talks in Washington later this month. Mexico brings significant leverage to the negotiations, the U.S. and Mexican officials said. López Obrador’s administration would prefer that President Joe Biden win re-election in November, given Donald Trump’s rhetoric and actions during his time in office. But Biden is quickly running out of options to fix a problem that is driving down his poll numbers without increased support from Mexico, three U.S. officials told NBC News.

One Mexican official told NBC News that Mexico is willing to help with enforcement - which US negotiators want to include the capture and deportation of Guatemalans apprehended within the country.

Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, lawmakers continue to negotiate over border security measures after several asylum policies introduced by Biden's team in May failed to deter migration.

 

[Pinecone]

You're right, PJ. We are so screwed.

 

[nomifyle]

I had to laugh at the Mexican president's demands, he would not be doing that if DJT was in the white house.

 

[mzkitty]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1744810953634467870

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1744810953634467870

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1744814982284320966

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1744814982284320966

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1744815307980505540

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1744815307980505540

 

[mzkitty]

 

[mzkitty]

 

[Plain Jane]

Thanks mzkitty!

CRIME - ECUADOR - POLICE OFFICERS KIDNAPPED | EXPLOSIONS IN CITIES | PRISONS IN CHAOS

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal BREAKING: ECUADOR - POLICE OFFICERS KIDNAPPED | EXPLOSIONS IN CITIES | PRISONS IN CHAOS A series of explosions across multiple cities in Ecuador have erupted. At least 4 Police officers have been kidnapped in Machala and Quito. These events occur shortly after the...

www.timebomb2000.com

 

[Plain Jane]

In Ecuador, the global reach of Mexico's warring drug cartels fuels a national crisis

Mexico’s two main drug cartels have long taken their deadly rivalry with them as they expand into distant markets from Asia to Australia to Africa.

apnews.com

In Ecuador, the global reach of Mexico’s warring drug cartels fuels a national crisis​

The Ecuadorian National Police continues a nationwide operation to combat criminal groups that the government now has named as “terrorist organizations”. (Jan 12).
Read MorePhotos
16
BY MARK STEVENSON
Updated 12:05 AM EST, January 13, 2024
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MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico’s two main drug cartels have long taken their deadly rivalry with them as they expand into distant markets from Asia to Australia to Africa, but never before with such intensive street gang violence and a presidential declaration of a state of “internal armed conflict” this week in Ecuador.

Gunmen from an Ecuadorian gang believed aligned with Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation cartel took over a television station during a live broadcast and brandished explosives. Meanwhile, a rival gang believed to be backed by Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel called for peace — in a statement apparently issued from Mexico City.
Why are Mexican cartels in Ecuador? It’s the location. And the bananas.


Ecuador is attractive as a shipping point for drugs because the South American country is sandwiched between two top cocaine producers, Colombia and Peru. Ecuador has been ravished by poverty, the COVID-19 pandemic, a weak law enforcement system and corruption, but it also has a big active, legitimate foreign trade.

Ships sail to ports in the U.S. and Europe with huge containers of bananas — Ecuador is the world’s top exporter — and those are good places to hide cocaine.


“You have a confluence of factors and, yes, you have bananas, a huge amount of containers and establishments and cover to be smuggling around the world in Europe, across Europe to Turkey, and to other parts of the world,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow in the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Brookings Institute.

In a few short years, experts say, the experience and muscle of the Mexican cartels has turned Ecuador into the shipment point for almost one-third of the cocaine entering Europe.

According to a 2023 report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “the proportion of cocaine reported to the Regional Intelligence Office for Western Europe with Ecuador identified as a departure point rose from 14 per cent in 2018 to 29 percent in 2020 and 28 per cent in 2021.”

Much of that cocaine was connected to Mexican cartels, who have moved into producer countries like Colombia following the 2016 peace accords there with leftist rebels. Coca bush fields in Colombia have also been moving closer to the border with Ecuador due to the breakup of criminal groups after the 2016 demobilization of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

In Mexico, from where the cartels ship mostly fentanyl and meth to the United States, the battle between the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels has caused a persistent, decade-long wave of violence.
Something similar can be seen in Ecuador, but at an astoundingly rapid rate. The homicide rate in Ecuador skyrocketed from about six homicides per 100,000 people in 2016 — comparable to the United States — to around 40 per 100,000 in 2023.

The Mexican cartels’ business model abroad is largely copied from their domestic playbook: assert control over territory by recruiting local gangs with offers of guns and cash. Then ruthlessly battle the rival cartel for control of territory.

“You will see the Jalisco cartel or the Sinaloa cartel insisting that the local criminal groups chose between them, that you’re only with one or the other, and act violently against rival groups who make a different choice,” Felbab-Brown said.

“So this has playing out in Ecuador,” she said.
The problem worsened when the Mexican cartels stopped paying the local gangs in cash, and began paying them in drugs instead, said Fernando Carrión, a political science professor at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Ecuador.

The local gangs “have to sell those drugs in local markets, and that forces local gangs to organize, increases local (drug) consumption and laundering, and for this reason also increases the violence,” Carrión said, as street-dealing turf battles cause homicide rates to spike.

That’s why you don’t see Mexican cartels sending their own flashy, heavily armed troops or their armored vehicles to Ecuador; Ecuadorians are doing the dying, in what Carrión describes as a form of outsourcing.

“They connect in Ecuador with other organizations in an outsourcing scheme,” Carrión said. “In the concrete case of the two Mexican groups, Sinaloa is connected to the ‘Choneros,’” one of Ecuador’s oldest gangs.


Jalisco New Generation is connected to the Lobos, or Wolves, which like Jalisco itself is a more recent upstart, he said. Jalisco also apparently works with the Tiguerones, the gang that took over the television station this week. “In this outsourcing scheme, these (local) groups perform certain tasks,” Carrión said, like guarding or transporting cocaine shipments overland to seaports.

The local gangs’ power is frightening, and extends from the prisons to the streets.

In August, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated less than two weeks before the election. He had complained of receiving threats from the Choneros, the gang associated with the Sinaloa cartel. A couple of months later, six suspects in the assassination, all Colombians, were killed in prison.

Last Sunday, the leader of the Choneros, Adolfo Macías, disappeared from the prison where he was held. Since Macías’ apparent escape, gangs have kidnapped police officers and inmates have taken at least 178 corrections personnel hostage.

On Tuesday, after the takeover of the TV station, President Daniel Noboa designated 20 drug-trafficking gangs as terrorist groups and authorized the military to “neutralize” them. Whether the government can regain the upper hand remains to be seen.

Ecuador is not alone. Countries as far away as New Zealand and Australia have seen violence spike as Mexican cartels arrived.
According to a 2016 report for Australia’s Strategic & Defence Studies Centre by Dr, Anthea McCarthy-Jones, “for Australia, the emergence of Mexican drug cartels in local markets presents not only criminal but strategic challenges.”

“Their presence threatens to not only increase the supply of illicit drugs in Australia, but encourage turf wars, increase the amount of guns in the country, tax border security resources and threaten the stability and good governance of South Pacific transit spots,” according to the report.

Felbab-Brown said the violence spurred by Mexican cartels is threatening countries previously considered peaceful. Ecuador itself was actively promoted in recent years as a safe haven for American retirees.

“The aggressions and the bipolar war, and the voraciousness of the Mexican cartels is having disastrous effects across the Americas. It’s working out and blowing up markets that were long considered to be places of safe haven, these islands of stability and peace, like Costa Rica, Chile.”

“Ecuador is the epicenter of violence right now, it’s dramatic brazen behavior, intimidation, aggression by the local criminal groups, so it’s at the forefront, but the role of the Mexican cartels has been pernicious south of Chiapas” — on Mexico’s border with Guatemala — “across the entire continent.”

 

[Plain Jane]

Colombia extends cease-fire with FARC splinter group in bid to reduce rural violence

Colombia’s government has extended a cease-fire with the FARC-EMC rebel group that was set to expire this week, as both sides hold peace talks in Bogota that seek to reduce violence in rural parts of the country.

apnews.com

Colombia extends cease-fire with FARC splinter group in bid to reduce rural violence​

FILE - Colombian President Gustavo Petro holds a ceremony to formally begin a six-month cease-fire as part of a process to forge permanent peace with the National Liberation Army (ELN) in Bogota, Colombia, Aug. 3, 2023. Colombia’s government has extended a cease-fire with the FARC-EMC rebel group that was set to expire in Jan. 2024, as both sides hold peace talks in Bogota in an effort to reduce violence in rural parts of the country. (AP Photo/Ivan Valencia, File)
Read More
BY MANUEL RUEDA
Updated 3:12 PM EST, January 15, 2024

BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — Colombia’s government has extended a cease-fire with the FARC-EMC rebel group that was set to expire this week, as both sides hold peace talks in Bogota in an effort to reduce violence in rural parts of the country.

The cease-fire will now last until July 15, according to a decree signed Sunday by President Gustavo Petro, and it requires that the rebels cease attacks on civilians in areas under their control – a crucial measure according to some analysts.

“The cease-fires we have seen (during the Petro administration) so far, have really only limited the clashes between the government and the rebel groups, but haven’t had a real impact on the lives of communities” said Elizabeth Dickinson, a Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group. “What we get to see now is whether this ceasefire can change that paradigm.”

Colombia’s government in October announced peace talks with the FARC-EMC splinter group after both sides agreed to a three-month long cease-fire.

The group of around 3,500 fighters is led by rebel commanders who did not join a 2016 peace deal between the Colombian government and the main FARC group that ended five decades of war.

While homicides in Colombia have gone down since the 2016 peace deal was signed, there has been an uptick in violence in some rural pockets of the country, where groups like the FARC-EMC, the National Liberation Army and the Gulf Clan are fighting over territory abandoned by the FARC.

Petro’s administration has attempted to hold simultaneous peace talks with these groups, as part of the president’s “Total Peace” plan. But critics say that cease-fires with the nation’s remaining rebel groups have done little to stop attacks on the population, with the rebels using the cessation of hostilities with the military as an opportunity to recruit teenagers, extort local businesses and kidnap civilians for hefty ransom payments – including the father of a famous soccer player.

The new cease-fire with the government also requires that the rebels not threaten community leaders or control the movements of villagers in rural areas, who are sometimes confined to their villages by the rebel groups.

The FARC-EMC and the government have disclosed few details about their current round of talks, which are being held in the nation’s capital. But they have hinted that they will discuss the implementation of economic projects aimed at transforming rural areas, where impoverished farmers have opted to grow illegal crops to make a living.

Sustainable development projects aimed at decreasing deforestation are also being discussed, according to the government’s lead negotiator, Camilo González Posso.

 

[Plain Jane]

Retaliation - Biden Administration Designates Former Guatemala President as Ineligible for U.S. Entry Following Snub of Biden Summit - The Last Refuge

The Biden administration has designated Alejandro Eduardo Giammattei Falla, former president of Guatemala, as generally ineligible for entry into the United States. The justification surrounds accusations of “corruption“; however, Giammattei Falla previously opposed the Biden administration and...

theconservativetreehouse.com

Retaliation – Biden Administration Designates Former Guatemala President as Ineligible for U.S. Entry Following Snub of Biden Summit​

January 17, 2024 | Sundance | 61 Comments
The Biden administration has designated Alejandro Eduardo Giammattei Falla, former president of Guatemala, as generally ineligible for entry into the United States. The justification surrounds accusations of “corruption“; however, Giammattei Falla previously opposed the Biden administration and organized a boycott of Biden’s Latin America Summit in 2022 {link}.

The Guatemala president was targeted by the Biden State Dept for removal, and the recent election effort in Guatemala did exactly that. The U.S. State Dept recently celebrated the election outcome and the installation of far-left socialists Bernardo Arévalo and Karin Herrera as President and Vice President {link}. Two days later, they designate Giammattei Falla persona non grata {link}.

Following the snub of Biden at the 2022 Latin America Summit in Los Angeles, literally the next month, there was an odd assassination attempt on President Giammattei Falla {link}. We said at the time it smelled like a Kashoggi situation, “At first blush I’m inclined to see Jose Ruben Zamora as the Latin version of Jamal Khashoggi; which is to say, he glows CIA.” {link}

The State Dept action today would be another datapoint in the affirmative to that suspicion.

STATE DEPT – The State Department is designating Alejandro Eduardo Giammattei Falla, former president of Guatemala, as generally ineligible for entry into the United States due to his involvement in significant corruption. The State Department has credible information indicating that Giammattei accepted bribes in exchange for the performance of his public functions during his tenure as president of Guatemala, actions that undermined the rule of law and government transparency.



The United States has made clear that it stands with Guatemalans who seek accountability for corrupt actors.  Over the past three years, we have taken steps to impose visa restrictions or sanctions on nearly 400 individuals, including public officials, private sector representatives, and their family members for engaging in corrupt activities or undermining democracy or the rule of law in Guatemala. Corruption weakens the rule of law and democratic institutions, enables impunity, fuels irregular migration, hampers economic prosperity, and curtails the ability of governments to respond effectively to their people’s needs.

The United States remains committed to strengthening transparency and governance in Guatemala and throughout the Western Hemisphere and we will continue to use all available tools to promote accountability for those who undermine it. (read more)

It sucks to notice that our U.S. government are the bad guys. However, our U.S. government are the bad guys.

 

[Plain Jane]

With Ecuador "In A State Of War", Prison Overcrowding Soars In Latin America | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

With Ecuador "In A State Of War", Prison Overcrowding Soars In Latin America​

BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JAN 19, 2024 - 02:45 AM
After several days of violence perpetrated by criminal gangs, in which at least fourteen people lost their lives, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared last week that his country was “in a state of war”. Ecuador is currently in the grip of an unprecedented wave of violence, led by drug trafficking gangs.

The country, currently the main export point for cocaine produced in Peru and Colombia, has recently seen an escalation of gang-related violence. Between 2019 and 2022, homicides on the streets of Ecuador increased by 288%, to 26.7 deaths per 100,000. 2023 figures published by the Ecuadorian government indicate that this figure has now risen to 46 deaths per 100,000 as nearly 8,000 homicides were recorded in the country.

On Tuesday January 9, a group of armed men burst onto a television set of the Ecuadorian public channel TC Television, and took several journalists hostage. In the country's prisons, mutinies also broke out. This wave of violence follows the escapes of Adolfo Macias, alias “Fito”, leader of the Los Choneros gang, which has around 8,000 men, on Sunday January 7, and of Fabricio Colon Pico, the leader of the Los Lobos gang, a few days later.



Nearly 180 prison guards and civil servants were taken hostage by the end of last week.

At least two hostages were killed by the inmates, one of them hanged, according to the videos.

But after the deployment of more than 22,400 military personnel and the imposition of curfews, all 136 hostages seized during prison riots in Ecuador were freed earlier this week, prison authorities said.

"Security protocols and the joint work of the police and the national army enabled the release of all the hostages who were being held in various prisons across the country," the SNAI prison authorities said in a statement on X.

President Daniel Noboa celebrated their release.

"Congratulations to the patriotic, professional and courageous work of the armed forces, national police and the SNAI [...] for achieving the release of the prison guards and administrative staff held in the detention centers of Azuay, Canar, Esmeraldas, Cotopaxi, Tungurahua, El Oro and Loja," Noboa wrote on X.

Police said 46 guards and one civil servant were released from the Cotopaxi prison, 13 from Tungurahua prison, and 15 others from El Oro prison, where the body of a civil servant was found.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the infographic below, based on data from World Prison Brief, shows, Ecuador's prisons are currently overcrowded: they are in fact running at an occupancy level of 112 percent.



You will find more infographics at Statista

This phenomenon is, however, much more pronounced in a large number of Latin American countries.

Five countries on the continent have a prison population more than twice the capacity of their prisons: Peru (229 percent occupancy), El Salvador (237 percent), Bolivia (264 percent), Guatemala (293 percent), and Haiti, where the prison population is almost five times its official capacity.

 

[Plain Jane]

About post 14- If Sundance is right this policy of going after extortion from the prisons will disappear, exist only on paper.

Guatemala's new government makes extortion its top security priority

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo’s new administration says it will make addressing widespread extortion its top security priority.

apnews.com

Guatemala's new government makes extortion its top security priority

Guatemala’s new government makes extortion its top security priority​

Army Gen. Henry Saenz gives the baton of command to new President Bernardo Arévalo during a ceremony at Constitution square in Guatemala City, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, the morning after his inauguration. (AP Photo/Moises Castillo)
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BY SONIA PÉREZ D.
Updated 6:53 PM EST, January 19, 2024
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GUATEMALA CITY (AP) — Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo’s new administration says it will make addressing widespread extortion its top security priority.

Interior Minister Francisco Jiménez, a security expert who has previously held the position, explained that Guatemala’s extortion problem is different from that in some neighboring countries.

Only about 20% of the extortion cases are attributable to gangs, while the rest are gang “imitators,” Jiménez said, meaning that opportunistic criminals trade on the violent reputation of the gangs to extract money from people.

Authorities also trace most of the extortion back to Guatemala’s prisons, where inmates use contraband phones to threaten and terrorize small business owners.

“As President Arévalo said, the issue of extortion is what we are going to make a particular priority this year,” Jiménez told The Associated Press in a telephone interview this week.


To address it, Jiménez said the government would launch a public awareness campaign against extortion, reinforce the police and their intelligence capacity, especially within the prison system.
“We believe the majority of the extortion comes from the prison system, as well as other important crimes like kidnappings and hired killings that are organized inside the prisons,” Jiménez said.

A young shop owner on the outskirts of Guatemala’s capital, who requested anonymity to discuss the extortion she has suffered, said that she opens the doors of her small food shop each day fearing that a gang member will drop off a cell phone on which she would then receive a call demanding payment.

The woman said she had been extorted before and recalled when gang members gathered her and other business owners on her block to threaten them. “They asked for money in exchange for not cutting us to pieces,” she said.

Arévalo, who was sworn in during the early hours of Monday, also has focused his attention on the prison system, saying Wednesday that he believed that its deficiencies and corruption were a large part of Guatemala’s security challenges.

The problem is not isolated to Guatemala. Ecuador’s government has blamed much of its recent spiraling violence on the organized criminal groups that control the prisons. Mexico too has repeatedly found organized extortion groups operating inside its prisons.
Jiménez said another security priority would be going after drug trafficking operations, noting that their criminal enterprises often expand into other areas.

Arévalo campaigned on going after Guatemala’s deep-rooted corruption, some of which is fueled by drug proceeds. But his ability to tackle that and many other issues could be hindered by the multiple investigations of him and his party by the Attorney General’s Office.

The U.S. government, the Organization of American States and others have said the investigations are politically motivated. Attorney General Consuelo Porras has been sanctioned by the U.S. government and accused of significant corruption.

Arévalo said Friday that he had requested a meeting with Porras for next week where he planned to ask for her resignation. The law does not allow the president to remove her from office.

 

[Plain Jane]

Guatemala's embattled attorney general says she will not step down

The Guatemala attorney general leading efforts to prosecute President Bernardo Arévalo and his party is refusing to step down.

apnews.com

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Updated 11:06 PM EST, January 24, 2024
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GUATEMALA CITY (AP) — The Guatemala attorney general leading efforts to prosecute President Bernardo Arévalo and his party refused to step down Wednesday ahead of a meeting with the president.

“I am not going to resign,” said Consuelo Porras in a recorded video message released by her office on the same day that Arévalo said he would ask her to step down in a face-to-face meeting.

Porras also threatened to take legal action against anyone who tried to push her out and cited court rulings in arguing that she is also not under any obligation to meet with Arévalo, because her office “is an autonomous and independent institution.”

“You (President Arévalo) as the maximum authority of the nation must respect what the (constitution) and the country’s laws establish,” Porras said in the video.

Porras has faced months of protests demanding her resignation for her office’s interference in last year’s elections. Her office has pursued investigations of Arévalo, his vice president and their party, as well as of electoral officials. Her agents have ordered waves of arrest warrants, raids of the party offices and seizures of electoral records and ballots.

For weeks, Indigenous groups blocked the country’s highways and for even longer have maintained a constant protest outside Porras’ office.

The 70-year-old Porras has already been sanctioned by the U.S. government for blocking corruption investigations and undermining democracy.

Arévalo has also planned to ask her for updates on some specific issues, including criminal investigations regarding the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines and alleged cases of bribery in the past administration.

Arévalo’s office said he did not plan to answer Porras publicly.

Since the Attorney General’s office is an autonomous entity, Arévalo can’t remove her. Other options could include reforming the law, but his party lacks a congressional majority to make it happen.

 

[Plain Jane]

Haitians suffering gang violence are desperate after Kenyan court blocks police force deployment

People across Haiti are wondering what awaits them after a court in Kenya blocked the deployment of a U.N.

apnews.com

https://apnews.com/article/haiti-kenya-armed-force-gangs-485babef4403bd9dd34780806e862768#

Haitians suffering gang violence are desperate after Kenyan court blocks police force deployment​

2 of 6 |
Lawyers react as Justice Chacha Mwita delivers judgement on a petition against the deployment of Kenyan forces to Haiti, at Milimani court in the capital Nairobi, Kenya, Friday, Jan. 26, 2024. A Kenyan court on Friday blocked the deployment of 1,000 police officers to Haiti, to help the Caribbean nation deal with gang violence. “A declaration is issued that the National Security Council has no mandate to deploy the National Police Service,” Justice Chacha ruled. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga)

5 of 6 |
FILE - A police officer holds onto a man wounded during violent gang clashes, as they are driven away on the back of a moto-taxi, in the Carrefour-Feuilles district of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Aug. 15, 2023. The number of people reported killed last year in Haiti more than doubled to nearly 4,500, and the number of reported kidnappings surged by more than 80% to nearly 2,500 cases, according to the most recent U.N. statistics. (AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph, File)
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BY DÁNICA COTO AND EVENS SANON
Updated 1:00 AM EST, January 27, 2024
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PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Radio stations across Haiti got jammed with calls just hours after a court in Kenya blocked the deployment of a U.N.-backed police force to help fight gangs in the troubled Caribbean country.
Many callers wondered and demanded: What’s next?
Few know.
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Uncertainty and fear have been spreading since Friday’s ruling, with violence reaching new records as gangs tighten their grip on Haiti’s capital and beyond.

“Absent a robust external mission that would be deployed very soon, we are facing quite a tragic scenario in Haiti,” warned Diego Da Rin with International Crisis Group.


Gangs that control an estimated 80% of Haiti’s capital have in recent weeks attacked and seized power of previously peaceful communities, killing and injuring dozens, leading to widespread concerns that they will soon control all of Port-au-Prince.

The number of people reported killed last year in Haiti more than doubled to nearly 4,500, and the number of reported kidnappings surged by more than 80% to nearly 2,500 cases, according to the most recent U.N. statistics.

Meanwhile, Haiti’s National Police is losing officers at “an alarming rate,” while those still in service continue to be overwhelmed by gangs, according to a U.N. report released this week. More than 1,600 officers left the department last year, and another 48 were reported killed.

In addition, equipment sent by the international community to help bolster an underfunded police department has crumpled beneath heavy fights with gangs. Only 21 of 47 armored vehicles were operational as of mid-November, with 19 “severely damaged during anti-gang operations or broken down,” according to the U.N. report. The remaining seven vehicles “are permanently disabled,” it stated.
“The situation has gone overboard. Enough is enough,” said a man who identified himself as Pastor Malory Laurent when he called Radio Caraibes to vent about Friday’s ruling. “Every day, you feel there is no hope.”

Kenya’s government said it would appeal the ruling. Still, it’s unclear how long that might take and whether other countries who pledged to send smaller forces to boost the multi-national mission would consider going at it alone.

Among those who planned to send forces were the Bahamas, Jamaica, Belize, Burundi, Chad and Senegal.

“All I will say at this time is that this is a major setback for the people of Haiti who yearn to have a stable country to live in,” said Roosevelt Skerrit, Dominica prime minister and former head of a Caribbean trade bloc known as Caricom that has sent recent delegations to Haiti to help resolve the unrest. “The decision of the Kenyan court warrants an emergency meeting of the friends of Haiti to determine with the Haitian people the plan B.”

Bahamian Prime Minister Philip Davis did not return messages for comment, nor did the office of Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness.

Hugh Todd, Guyana’s foreign minister, told The Associated Press that the trade bloc will likely meet soon to discuss the implications of the ruling as it awaits word from Jamaica.

“We will have to see if there is any legal space for us to operate,” he said, referring to whether there are any other legal options that might allow Kenya and other countries to move forward.

U.N. officials have not commented since the court ruling.

Edwin Paraison, a former Haitian diplomat and executive director of a foundation that seeks to strengthen ties between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, said he would be surprised if international leaders didn’t have a plan B.

He said the ruling, however, would allow Haiti to implement its own solutions to gang violence, and that he believes it has enough resources to do so.

“One entity that has never been mentioned, and we don’t understand why it’s never been mentioned, is Haiti’s military, even if it’s at an embryonic stage,” he said.

Paraison noted that more than 600 soldiers who recently received training in Mexico could work alongside with police.

“We have to look at the resources we have at the local level to deal with this situation,” he said.

But such resources might not be enough, said André Joseph, 50, who owns a small convenience store in downtown Port-au-Prince, one of the more dangerous areas of the capital.

The people who live and work around his store are very protective of him and his business, he said.

“I hope that someone can fight for them also,” Joseph said. “The international force would be the best thing for these people to have here, and for me, too.”

But in the absence of one, he would like to see the money set aside for the multinational mission go to Haiti instead so it can rebuild its own forces and fight gangs.

Many Haitians grumbled about Friday’s ruling, including Marjorie Lamour, a 39-year-old mother of two who sells women’s lingerie out of a small container she carries with her. She is forced to keep her load light in case she must run from gangs.

“Some days I’m here all day, and then there’s a shooting and I’m running, and I come back home without a cent,” said Lamour, who called the ruling “a major crime” against Haitians.

She noted that she and her family have been forced to flee two different homes already because of gang violence, which has left more than 310,000 Haitians homeless.

“I don’t want to have to run a third time,” she said, adding that she doesn’t make enough money to properly care for her children. “Feeding my kids a meal once a day is hard enough. I hope God can do something for us because no one is doing anything.”

Da Rin, with International Crisis Group, noted that one silver lining is how the mission backed by the U.N. Security Council did not specify that Kenya would be the one to lead it. He said it opens the possibility that another country could take the reins without additional meetings and approval from the council.

As Haiti awaits the possibility of a plan B, Da Rin said he worries that the situation could only worsen, especially given the recent arrival of former Haitian rebel leader Guy Philippe, who has not supported the Kenyan-led mission.

“With this news, the desperation of Haitians to see a way out of the security crisis increases,” he said. “They may make some slightly radical decisions.”

__​

Coto reported from San Juan, Puerto Rico. Associated Press reporter Bert Wilkinson in Georgetown, Guyana, contributed.

 

[Plain Jane]

Biden's Real Oil-For-Fake Democracy Plan Ruined After Venezuela Blocks Opposition Leader's Presidential Run | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Biden's Real Oil-For-Fake Democracy Plan Ruined After Venezuela Blocks Opposition Leader's Presidential Run​

BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, JAN 27, 2024 - 03:45 PM
And another foreign policy faux pas...
The Biden administration says it is currently reviewing its sanctions policy on Maduro's Venezuela, after the country's top court blocked opposition leader María Corina Machado from becoming a presidential candidate. Her formal candidacy was initially banned for backing US sanctions against Caracas and for alleged corruption.

"The United States is currently reviewing our Venezuela sanctions policy, based on this development and the recent political targeting of democratic opposition candidates and civil society," State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a fresh Saturday statement in response to the development.

It was only in October that the White House initiated most extensive rollback of Trump-era sanctions on Caracas, after a series of visits of high-level US officials to meet with counterparts in Caracas. The engagement came to fruition against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, which sent the US abroad in search of alternative energy resources.

Via AP
Biden's easing of the sanctions was supposed to be based on President Nicolás Maduro agreeing to significant democratic reform and an even playing field in the 2024 election.

But as the Associated Press reviews, "Machado won a presidential primary held in October by the faction of the opposition backed by the U.S. She secured more than 90% of the vote despite the Venezuelan government announcing a 15-year ban on her running for office just days after she formally entered the race in June."

Clearly given that Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice has just upheld the ban on Friday, the Biden administration request didn't sink in, and its sanctions-easing gambit appears to have backfired.

Meanwhile, there are signs that Maduro ahead of the presidential election, expected for the latter half of 2024, has launched a new crackdown while accusing alleged conspirators against the government.

As is typical in Maduro's socialist Latin American country, the circumstances are highly bizarre:

Venezuelan authorities have arrested 32 civilians and soldiers after a months-long investigation into their alleged part in a US-backed "conspiracy" to assassinate President Nicolas Maduro, the prosecutor's office said Monday.
All suspects have "confessed and revealed information about the plans," Attorney General Tarek William Saab told reporters in Caracas. He said they had been accused of treason and "convicted" for their crimes.

In addition 11 other arrest warrants were issued, but most of these are reportedly in exile. Interestingly, Caracas authorities say they've known about the conspiracy for months, but they didn't want to derail the high-level talks with the US which appears to be ushering in some kind of slow rapprochement.
(Tweet is at the link)

Here are the cast of external agencies now being blamed:

Padrino told the same press conference that an operation that started last year to uncover details of the alleged conspiracy was kept secret as it coincided with "talks" between Maduro and the United States that resulted in a prisoner swap.
He blamed the plot on the "far right," as the Maduro government usually refers to the opposition, with "support" of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA).

And to be expected, opposition candidate Machado is also being accused and has been linked to the conspiracy by police and intelligence. The Maduro government even says it has a video proving it. Machado has dismissed all of this as part of Maduro's "surreal and delirious plots." Without doubt the coming weeks and months are going to be interesting, and especially the reaction of the Biden White House - whether it backtracks are pursues further diplomatic "openings" with Maduro.

And now the Biden admin hypocrisy will be exposed for all to see as he is stuck between a rock of supporting an authoritarian dictator hell-bent on destroying democracy and a hard-place of rising oil prices (if sanctions are reinstated 200-300k less barrels of supply) and rising gasoline prices and that's not an election winner.


Bond investors know that elections always trump ethics and have mostly held onto their bets that the sanctions will remain suspended.



Government notes due in 2027 were quoted late Friday at 21.4 cents, according to indicative pricing compiled by Bloomberg, 2 cents lower than their high earlier this month but still far above the 10-cent range where they traded before the Barbados agreement.

It will be interesting to see how Biden spins the support of democracy-defying dictators overseas (Ukraine first and now Venezuela) while demagoguing the apparent democracy-destroying opposition doimestically.