WAR Iran/ US/mideast war thread - 2/28/26 Open Hostilities (Thread for Off Topic discussion started, see post #13,751, page 344)

Tousi again didn’t say a lot, but what little he did say spoke volumes. The IRGC isn’t giving out numbers about losses in the fighting in and around Saravan. What’s telling is a local hospital was evacuated of all its patients and taken over for IRGC use. It’s seeing a lot of use.

DANG IT!!! I’ve gotta stop hitting post like that.

The resistance fighters released a report on one of their actions. They had a unit moving up, and it ran into an IRGC unit. At first the resistance was in trouble, but they called up another group and the Guard forces took heavy losses and was forced to pull back.

Explosions are happening in places far removed from the fighting in the SE. In the north where the Immortal Guard is strongest, checkpoints and the Basij who man them are being taken out every day. Or should I say night. That’s when the attacks usually happen.
 
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Open Source Intel @Osint613
Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam at the UN:

We want the war to end, the ceasefire stabilized, an Israeli withdrawal to the international border, the release of all prisoners, the return of the displaced and reconstruction. Lebanon entered negotiations with Israel under U.S. and Trump leadership to end the war and restore full Lebanese sovereignty.

The success of any agreement is not in the declaration but in fulfilling the commitments.
 

Yemen's Saudi-Backed President Calls On Citizens To Mobilize, In Sign Of Desperation<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

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Yemen's Saudi-Backed President Calls On Citizens To Mobilize, In Sign Of Desperation​


by Tyler Durden
Friday, Sep 25, 2026 - 09:20 PM
The Ansar Allah movement, commonly called the Houthis, have remained the most recognizable name and force in Yemen of late, but lesser known among many headline consumers is the country's internationally recognized government, which is directly backed by the Saudis and recognized by the United Nations.

Rashid Al-Alimi, president of the 'legitimate' government based out of Sanaa, ‌on Friday called on ‌all Yemenis to ⁠mobilize and join the armed ⁠forces against the Houthi rebels' onslaught.

Source: Iranian presidency's office
The general call to arms, coupled with a declaration of future ‌general ‌amnesty to any Houthi fighters who decide to lay down their weapons and defect - suggests that the Saudi-backed coalition seeks desperate measures.

"I call upon the sons of our great people to engage in general mobilization and national mobilization, to rally around their armed and security forces," Al-Alimi, who is also Supreme Commander of the Yemeni Armed Forces, said in a speech.

Things quickly went from bad to worse for Riyadh on the Yemen front this month, especially after Houthi rapid gains along the Red Sea coast.

After some direct drone or missile hits on the East-West pipeline earlier in September (which may have been Iraqi Shia militias, per US officials), Saudi Aramco told European refineries that it would cancel crude shipments in October. But Reuters has since reported that the pipeline has restarted.

The Saudis are currently trying to rally support from Mecca Defense Pact allies Pakistan and Turkey, though its anything but clear how much support these will actually commit.

In the midst of all this, somewhat unexpectedly, French President Emmanuel Macron declared he would send "military means" to help shield the vital Yanbu oil terminal from Houthi attacks - though it's unclear what precise difference a handful of ground units might make.

"We are going to send military resources, that is to say, soldiers, radar systems and defense systems, to protect this site," but "not to get us involved in any conflicts," Macron informed French media.

But instead they could just find themselves in the direct line of fire for Houthi projectiles.
 

Inside the 2026 Tanker War: Hormuz Strikes, Soaring Rates & Diesel Shortages​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyvROCL630c

Run time - 27:54
Sep 25, 2026

In this What*The*Hormuz edition of What's Going on With Shipping, Sal Mercogliano breaks down the escalating reality of the 2026 Tanker War in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, responding directly to claims that commercial vessels are simply "sailing on" through drone and missile strikes.

Using the latest maritime data, satellite tracking, and intelligence reports, we examine what is really happening to global shipping lanes, crude carriers, and refined product markets.

Key Topics Covered in This Episode:
⚓The Reality of Tanker Attacks: Analyzing the strike on MV Cape Dao, crew casualties, and why commercial vessels are taking serious damage in the southern transit corridor.
⚓UKMTO & CENTCOM Data: Breaking down weekly transit figures, naval escort numbers, and why traffic remains roughly 75% below pre-conflict levels.
⚓Skyrocketing Charter Rates: How VLCC rates surged past $1.2 million per day on Persian Gulf to China routes, and why clean product tankers are seeing massive rate spikes.
⚓Global Fuel & Diesel Implications: The impact of proposed U.S. diesel export restrictions, refinery constraints, and rising global shortages.
⚓Seized Iranian Tankers: The status of interdicted tankers transporting crude to the U.S. and the legal and operational complications ahead.
⚓Depleting Global Oil Reserves: Why declining onshore storage and the post-February supply gap are driving market volatility.

00:00 – Introduction: Are Ships "Just Sailing On"?
02:12 – Iran's Disruption Strategy & Diplomatic Talks
04:05 – UKMTO Transit Overview & Escorted Vessels Data
08:25 – Saudi Crude Exports & Satellite Tracking of Mooring Buoys
10:40 – Record-Breaking VLCC & Product Tanker Charter Rates
15:34 – Iranian Shipping Blacklist & the Attacked Tanker Algae
16:54 – US Interdicted Tankers Heading to American Ports
19:53 – Activation Status of TS Empire State (SUNY Maritime)
22:23 – Hormuz Oil Flow Deficit & Global Land Storage Depletion
Iran’s ship attacks show strategy of disruption not discrimination
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158544/...

Diplomatic push once again raises hopes of Strait of Hormuz deal
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158539/...

UKMTO Weekly Reports
https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/...

Saudi tanker transits through Hormuz hit war-time high after pipeline attack
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158529/...

Gulf of Oman Ship-to-ship Oil Transfers Reach Limit as Saudi Exports Surge
https://gcaptain.com/gulf-of-oman-shi...

Crude tanker rates steady near record highs, FFAs fall and stocks retreat
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158513/...

Product tankers join the party as MR rates in Asia hit multi-year highs
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158537/...

How would US diesel export restriction impact tanker shipping rates?
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158524/...

Four more vessels added to Iran’s Hormuz black list
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158547/...

Seized Iranian Oil Tankers Head Toward U.S. With $600 Million Cargo
https://gcaptain.com/seized-iranian-o...

Trump Pushing for Diesel Export Ban Amid Surging Fuel Prices
https://gcaptain.com/trump-pushing-fo...

Federal Training Ship Empire State VII Ordered to Norfolk Ahead of U.S. Navy Mission
https://gcaptain.com/federal-training...
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613 A military source in Sana'a linked to the Houthis says bridges in Saudi Arabia, particularly in Riyadh, may be added to the group's target bank in response to Saudi Air Force strikes on bridges and infrastructure in Yemen. The source called it a legitimate response, speaking to the Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar.
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613
Washington told Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam in New York that Israel will keep operating and stay in the southern Lebanon security zone until Beirut seriously disarms Hezbollah, per Qatari outlet Al-Araby Al-Jadeed.

U.S. officials called Lebanon's steps insufficient and warned the situation could worsen.
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613 Two suspects who entered the security zone in southern Lebanon and approached Israeli troops were shot and neutralized earlier today, the IDF said. No Israeli casualties were reported, and the incident is under review.
 
danielboon said:
OpenSourceIntel@Osint613Initial reports from Iran: Student protests have broken out at Allameh Tabataba'i University in Tehran.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2104564197312856067
View: https://twitter.com/MohamadAhwaze/status/2104564197312856067/video/1
Click to expand...
Tousi had some points to make on this tonight. These protests ARE NOT the general uprising everyone is either waiting for or afraid of. However there are many small protests happening at many different schools nationwide. The part that raises my eyebrows the most is the very noticeable lack of the Basij trying to stop them. The obvious question is why?

First possibility is they are simply to scared to do anything. The people have been shooting back lately.

Next, any armed person in the street will be seen as an enemy combatant by the U.S. and Israel. That could be risky. Have you seen those videos of Israel using missiles to target INDIVIDUAL members of Hamas and Hezbollah?

Finally a lot of them are changing from uniforms to civilian clothes. Trying to blend into the crowd. Maybe seeking deep cover so they can help identify those against the regime at a later date. Like after they win. Maybe they are some of the first rats getting off the sinking ship. Time will tell.
 
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Tousi brought some things to the table tonight that show how the cracks in the regime are getting wider and something that must be an unpleasant surprise for the IRGC.

To start with SMALL protests continue. Big enough to make noise, not so big they attract bullets. But they do go on. The regime is apparently losing ground in the SE. At first it was the city of Saravan where they were fighting for control. We can now add two more cities where the same is happening. Iransha (sp?) is one of them. It’s a bit further southwest, and another one north of them who’s name I didn’t get. Also it seems that an Iranian airliner has been seized, in Turkey I believe. Nothing is flying in or out of Iran.

On a personal observation of this broadcast, which I believe may tie into what’s next. Tousi made an off-hand comment about how Tehran should be concerned about what’s going to happen in the next few days. That struck me as odd. Then the next story.

Everyone may recall recently Bibi made a trip to the UAE to meet with the leadership there. Turns out it was a bit more than that. A total of 10 arab countries brought together by the U.S., to speak with Bibi and a number of people from his government. The subject of the meeting? What to do about Iran. About the only one missing was Jordan.

The Mayor of Tehran has announced the regime has reason to believe the U.S. and Israel are arranging things to foment an internal revolution. The Iranian citizens need to be aware of this so they don’t fall for it. It would make it easier for America when they invade if we’re fighting each other.

They are also asking people to remember there is a reward for every confirmed kill of an American and/or his capture. Given the difference’s in currency it works out to about $500 per American. UNLESS you are a woman. Then the prize is doubled.
 
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Open Source Intel @Osint613 Security is being ramped up on both Israeli and foreign carriers on Netanyahu's orders following the FlyDubai flight incident, according to a spokesperson for the Prime Minister's Office.
 
Why is it that so often a little seems to mean so much. Tonight Tousi brought up that Iran has already said if they can’t fly then all foreign aircraft are fair game. And of course we had the Omani pilot stab the Indian pilot and try to crash the plane today. But as Tousi was reporting on this there was an unconfirmed but highly likely story that Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia have all come under terrorist attack. I think they said the burning oil facility is in Iraq.
 

Top Shia Cleric Says US Should Compensate Iraqis As Last American Forces Leave<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

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Top Shia Cleric Says US Should Compensate Iraqis As Last American Forces Leave​

by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026 - 03:20 PM
Via Middle East Eye

Influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has said the US should compensate Iraqis for the damage inflicted on the country, as the last American troops pull out of Iraq.

In a statement on Wednesday, which is the deadline for American forces to end their 12-year presence (since the start of 'Inherent Resolve' against ISIS) in the country, Sadr hailed the "independence of Iraq" and praised those who fought against the US.

Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr
"We demand compensation from the American army for all the damages that occurred as a result of its occupation of Iraqi lands," he said. "Everyone should file legal complaints regarding this."

The US first occupied Iraq in 2003 following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, before pulling out its forces in 2011.

They returned at the request of the Iraqi government in 2014 to tackle the spread of the Islamic State group, which had seized around a third of the country.

The US-led invasion in 2003 was widely regarded as illegal, and American forces in Iraq were accused of committing frequent war crimes and human rights abuses.


Different accounts of the death toll from the invasion have been reported, with most ranging from hundreds of thousands of violent deaths to more than a million excess deaths.

Sadr said in his statement that the US, as well as "neighboring countries", now needed to refrain from interfering in Iraqi affairs.

"This may lead to the severing of relations and reciprocal treatment, especially in political and ideological matters, and the dragging of Iraq into regional conflicts," he said. "We hope that the United States will reciprocate diplomatically and not act arrogantly towards Iraq, its government, and its people."

No foreign interference​

During the original US-led occupation of Iraq, Sadr led the Mahdi Army (later revived as Saraya al-Salam or Peace Brigades), an armed group that fought against the coalition forces, Iraqi security forces and al-Qaeda in Iraq, among others.

Sadr and his supporters have long framed themselves as an Iraqi nationalist group, opposed to both US influence on the country and interference from its powerful neighbour Iran.

On Wednesday, Sadr said the remnants of the Mahdi Army would be retooled as the Supporters of Imam al-Mahdi Foundation, a reference to Muhammad al-Mahdi, whom Shia Muslims believe is in hiding and will return alongside Jesus to usher in the end times.

He also suggested that all current politicians in Iraq step down from their positions to usher in new blood - to "end corruption and work towards reform" - as well as reiterating a need for all weapons in Iraq to come under the control of the state.



The question of the integration of powerful armed groups in Iraq into the regular security forces has been linked to the US troop withdrawal.

Though the process was originally tied to the September 30 deadline, last week Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi extended the deadline to June 2027.

A number of the most powerful Iran-backed groups - including Kataeb Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada - have already indicated that they will not disarm, and the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran has made it unlikely the Islamic Republic will exert any pressure on them to do so.

"Disarmament needs a political agreement inside Iraq, a credible way of integrating fighters and command structures into the state, and some answer to the political, economic and ideological power these factions have built up over years," said Hayder al-Shakeri, a research fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, speaking to Middle East Eye.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell says the US and its coalition partners have formally ended “Operation Inherent Resolve” in Iraq with all forces and military equipment having left the airbase in Erbil.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2105237839772541015
View: https://x.com/aaronjmate/status/2105237839772541015?ref_


"For the groups closest to Iran, it will also be extremely difficult without Iranian agreement or a broader regional de-escalation. Otherwise, you risk simply moving the weapons into another institution while leaving the same networks and chains of command intact."
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613
Two ballistic missiles were intercepted over the Saudi cities of Khamis Mushait and Jazan, with four drones also brought down over Khamis Mushait.

Coalition spokesman: "We continue to take operational measures to deter the terrorist Houthi militia."

Al Hadath
 

Iran Army & Missile Supply Line Wiped! 670 Bridges + 380 Tunnels Bombed | US-Israel Cripple Tehran!​

Iran’s military supply network has come under intense pressure as US-Israeli strikes targeted key bridges and transport routes across the country. A new Iran International investigation maps a vast network of around 670 railway bridges and 380 major tunnels, connecting missile-production facilities, military bases and strategic routes.

The report details strikes on six railway bridges, routes near Bandar Khamir and other key crossings — exposing how Iran’s military logistics depend on infrastructure that also carries civilian traffic. Watch the full report to understand how these strikes disrupted Tehran’s military transportation network and what they could mean for Iran’s ability to move troops, missiles and supplies.

Rt 1:43

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtwK2PL5s2g
 

Supertanker Ablaze After Iran Attack In Hormuz As US Deploys 10K More Troops & Third Carrier To Mideast<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

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Supertanker Ablaze After Iran Attack In Hormuz As US Deploys 10K More Troops & Third Carrier To Mideast​

by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Oct 01, 2026 - 03:30 PM
Update(1530ET): Iranians are apparently going back on the offensive, after it's been widely reported that US-protected oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been fast gaining steam. Iran state media says a supertanker is burning off the coast of Oman after coming under Iranian attack:

Local sources reported that a 2.5 million barrel capacity supertanker that was traveling through the Strait of Hormuz illegally was hit 8 kilometers off the coast of Oman and is burning, reports Fars
Click to expand...
Earlier we reported that starting in mid-August (on Aug. 16), Iran’s Supreme National Security Council set October 1 as a deadline. It warned at the time that if Washington failed to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran could resume attacks against US forces, and by implication step up attacks on foreign shipping.

Iran’s 45-day deadline for the United States has now expired. That deadline has now passed, potentially adding another layer of uncertainty to an already tense confrontation where Tehran may decide it must act 'preemptively' while facing more bombs by Trump (likely after the midterms).



* * *

Signs of potential major escalation, or the next round at least (which Trump has hinted will come after the midterm elections), just hit The Wall Street Journal, and sent oil prices soaring. A quick summary:

  • The Pentagon is sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East, adding 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the region.
  • The ships, jet fighters, Marines and sailors will arrive in the region by the end of November, as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.
  • The additional servicemembers will add to the more than 50,000 troops already in the region, with the deployments coming after Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal for a seven-day ceasefire.


The Trump administration is deploying a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East along with additional Marines, an American official also told Israeli media on Thursday. And later, in the afternoon, Trump posted a new Truth Social message as follows:



The USS Theodore Roosevelt is en route to US Central Command's (CENTCOM) area of operations after having just left San Diego this week. It is expected to relieve the Japan-based USS George Washington, which entered regional waters in mid-August.

But both carriers could also stay on extended deployments. The WSJ writes further:

The additional moves will further strain the U.S. Navy, however, which has experienced supply shortages and faced near-record deployments during the conflict. Iran has in recent weeks fired ballistic missiles at American warships. The crew of the Roosevelt is prepared for a longer-than-normal deployment as well, according to senior Navy officials.
Click to expand...



Carriers which more frequently had Indo-Pacific deployments have been increasingly diverted to the Middle East in recent years, a trend which had only picked up steam amid tensions with Iran and the Houthis out of Yemen.

Also on Thursday Al Jazeera is newly reporting that three carriers will stay in regional waters, "By the end of November, three aircraft carriers and two landing groups will be deployed around Iran," a US official told the Qatar-based outlet.

And USNI News earlier detailed:

On September 28, USNI News reported that a U.S. defense official had confirmed the carrier’s departure from San Diego the previous day. Navy officials had also warned families that the deployment could exceed seven months, with eight months being used as the planning baseline.

Carrier Strike Group 9 includes Theodore Roosevelt, Carrier Air Wing 11, Destroyer Squadron 23, Information Warfare Squadron 9 and the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Chosin (CG-65). Its embarked air wing brings together several combat and support aircraft. The strike component includes F-35C Lightning II fighters from VFA-86, F/A-18E Super Hornets from VFA-211 and VFA-25, and F/A-18F aircraft from VFA-154. VAQ-137 operates the EA-18G Growler for electronic warfare, while VAW-115 flies the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye for airborne surveillance and command and control.
Click to expand...
Whether one of the carriers ends up leaving the theatre or not, the extra deployment does mean President Trump will have a wider range of options for more possible military actions against the Islamic Republic.

He has in a freshly published TIME interview this week reiterated that he may be escalating attacks on Iran after the November midterms if an acceptable deal can't be reached.



As for the new carrier deployment, it was additionally confirmed: "During a town hall on August 31, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle said USS Theodore Roosevelt would be the next carrier sent to the Arabian Sea and was expected to relieve USS George Washington."

But again, follow-up reports suggest it will not be to relieve one of the carriers, but to serve as a likely third floating base of support for Iran operations.
 
It would seem things just keep going from bad to worse for the regime. Tousi reporting this evening fighting in the SE not only continues but it’s spreading. A Basij checkpoint near the corner of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran has been attacked. Fars says 6 terrorists were killed. They also say there were a number of IRGC casualties and woundings. Fighting in all areas previously reported also continues.

Two videos that were something else. The Iranian people again showing their wit. Remember, in Iran right now it is a crime to criticize the government. So they don’t. Had to be about a dozen people all saying and doing the same thing.

MAN: “The foreign minister said everything is all right and not to worry. God willing he is right.”

At which point they turn around and put tape on the windows to help keep them from shattering during bombing raids.

The next video took me by surprise. Like here, the school year is just starting. There were A LOT of kids? Their faces blurred so hard to say but high school/college age. They are chanting in the schoolyard,

“This is the final battle. Pahlavi will return!”

The teachers, principal, and even Basij could do anything to stop it.

Next down turn came in the form of a video showing very little to nothing on the store shelves. The person filming says this is the seventh store.

It has been reported the Iranian foreign minister overstayed his visit to America and Mr. Rubio rather pointedly asked him to leave. Tousi is reporting some known fact, some make up your own mind. The foreign minister it is rumored was negotiating his defection. That’s why he overstayed. True or not? It is reported that upon his return to Iran the foreign minister learned that during his absence his sister had been mysteriously murdered.
 
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danielboon said:
Open Source Intel @Osint613 Tasnim News Agency ~ Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan made a phone call to Abbas Araqchi, Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, and expressed condolences on the death of his sister.
Click to expand...
Thanks for confirming this part of yesterday’s Tousi report.

This evening something seems to be happening that I have suspected might. It is a comment for now, but I have to ask people to keep an eye on the movements of the resistance fighters for the next little while. The fighting in the SE keeps spreading. Two more towns in the area, These towns are to the south of the area around Saravan, closer to the Gulf of Oman. danielboon and I have talked about this. Also, since the IRGC can’t seem to inflict enough casualties on the resistance, the are now attacking private homes in reprisal. It is said the town of Rasque is no longer under government control.

NOTE TO SELF…RETURN IS NOT THE SAME AS POST! USE IT RIGHT,

The IRGC is still taking heavy casualties and brought in fighters from Afghanistan. They seem to have all suddenly died. The regime is up to its old tricks. Stationing personnel and equipment in schools, believing we won’t bomb them. They also held another parade. They handed weapons to a bunch of girls they kicked out of school so they could use it, loaded them up in pickup trucks and drove through town with music playing. There was no crowd. They also loaded up on grandmothers who were promising they wouldn’t turn over the Islamic revolution to anyone that was unworthy.

Saudi Arabia is finally stepping up and investing more military to fight the Houthi’s. And the Houthi’s are now starting to lose ground faster.
 
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Black Smoke Reported Over Critical Aramco Refinery As Saudis Weigh Major Assault On Houthi Rebels<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

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Black Smoke Reported Over Critical Aramco Refinery As Saudis Weigh Major Assault On Houthi Rebels​

by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Oct 03, 2026 - 08:10 AM
Unverified reports and footage circulating on X early Saturday morning appear to show smoke rising from Saudi Aramco's Riyadh refinery. The cause and any impact on operations remain unclear. Separately, Axios reports that Saudi Arabia is preparing a major offensive against Iran-backed Houthis in the coming days. President Trump's comments last week that a bombing campaign against Tehran could resume after the midterm elections add to signs that the Gulf conflict remains far from any near-term resolution.

Turkish news outlet Türkiye Today cites NASA's FIRMS satellite monitoring system, which shows higher-intensity VIIRS thermal hits across Aramco's Riyadh refinery, one of Saudi Arabia's most important refining assets, with a capacity of about 130,000 barrels a day.



Open-source intelligence (OSINT) accounts on X are sharing footage of what may be Iran-backed Houthi attacks on the refinery. No official word yet on why thick black plumes of smoke are rising from multiple locations at the refinery.

More unconfirmed close-up footage showcasing the ongoing fire inside Saudi ARAMCO Riyadh Refinery, Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.
Hexagone Intel (@osinthexagone) on X pic.twitter.com/BMOGtYrtws

— Hexagone Intel (@osinthexagone) October 3, 2026
Click to expand...
⚡️BREAKING: Saudi Aramco Riyadh Refinery has been Struck by Yemen's Houthis

Smoke is rising from Multiple Locations pic.twitter.com/s1apeEtfIX

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) October 3, 2026
Click to expand...
Houthis have managed to Strike the Main Saudi Aramco Refinery in Riyadh!!
Nasa Frim shows it's likely on Fire after the hit. Hexagone Intel (@osinthexagone) on X pic.twitter.com/fgiXtH1R5k

— Ali (@MerruX) October 3, 2026
Click to expand...
Unconfirmed footage showcasing ongoing fires inside Saudi ARAMCO Riyadh Refinery, Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Unusual VIIRS thermal hits with increased intensity are observed across the refinery on NASA FIRMS satellite imagery. Hexagone Intel (@osinthexagone) on X pic.twitter.com/Aow3HglPgh

— Hexagone Intel (@osinthexagone) October 3, 2026
Click to expand...



A separate report by Axios overnight states that the Saudis are preparing for a major operation against the Houthis in the coming days, targeting coastal areas that give the rebels leverage over the critical maritime chokepoint of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The report cites two US officials.

More color from Axios:

Behind the scenes: A U.S. official said the Saudis have been planning the operation for weeks and that plans were approved by Saudi leadership several days ago.

  • The operation will include ground forces loyal to the internationally recognized government in Yemen with Saudi air cover.
  • On Thursday, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to brief him on the planned operation and ask again for U.S. airstrikes against Houthi targets, the U.S. official said.
  • A U.S. official said that the U.S. "is not going to take kinetic action for now."
President Trump reiterated to TIME last week that he may escalate attacks on Iran after the November midterms if an acceptable deal can't be reached.

Separately, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape has warned that Oct. 1 could mark a new phase in the conflict. He writes that "Iran's 45-day deadline to the United States expired today."

"On August 16, Iran's Supreme National Security Council decided that if Washington did not lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran would retain the option of launching renewed attacks against U.S. forces," Pape underscores. "That clock has now run out."
 

US Again Rebuffs Riyadh's Yemen Plea As 100,000-Man Force Readies For War<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

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US Again Rebuffs Riyadh's Yemen Plea As 100,000-Man Force Readies For War​

by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Oct 03, 2026 - 12:15 PM
Several reports have indicated that Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces are preparing for a major offensive against Houthi rebels in the coming weeks, which will mobilize a huge force with an aim to take back Yemen's Red Sea coast and to ultimately secure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, amid an ongoing threat to global shipping in the Red Sea area.

Over 100,000 Yemeni pro-government troops could mobilize for the offensive, Reuters has reported. Last month, the ease and quickness of Houthi gains proved humiliating for the Saudi coalition in Yemen.

White House file image

The report described, "The Saudis are considering two possible options for the assault, the Gulf and Yemeni officials said: Either a narrowly focused attack on the area around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive that also includes other synchronized attacks on multiple fronts around Yemen, in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf."

Parallel to the Reuters reporting, Axios said Friday that the United States will definitely not join the offensive in any direct way, short of possible intelligence or even targeting help.

The report cited US officials who say Riyadh again directly requested military help from Washington, but the kingdom has been rebuffed for the second time in a few weeks.

The Saudis are expected to focus on air cover for ground forces loyal to Sanaa, and reports suggest the Saudis wanted US warplanes in the air as well.

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman called Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth to brief him ahead of the operation and specifically requested US airstrikes as coverage for the ground operations. The request was rejected, US officials say.

An admin official was cited in Axios as saying the US "is not going to take kinetic action for now."It was just a week ago that President Trump was said to have been close to ordering US military support in the Yemen theatre, but that he decided against it at the last minute.

Sunni clerics denigrate Shi'ites of the region:

Speaking at a conference in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s top Muslim cleric said: "Houthis have no connection whatsoever to Islam.” pic.twitter.com/PY47Bmi99d

— HatsOff (@HatsOffff) September 30, 2026
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US officials have said getting bogged down in the Yemen conflict would be a "distraction" at a moment US forces engaged against Iran and in escorting oil transit through the contested Strait of Hormuz.

There's also the fact that in prior years when the US was more directly supporting of the Saudis and UAE in coalition operations in Yemen, it did little to change realities on the ground, other than imposing misery and death on the broader Yemeni population.
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613
Haaretz reports that the secret Dubai summit attended by PM Netanyahu and representatives from 10 other countries reached agreements on a Gulf to Mediterranean oil route via Eilat, joint bases in Socotra and Somaliland, economic aid for Egypt over lost Suez revenue and an immigration plan involving Libya.

According this report, a secret document was also reportedly drafted as the basis for an “Abraham Alliance,” envisioned as a Middle East version of NATO.
 
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