WAR Iran/ US/mideast war thread - 2/28/26 Open Hostilities (Thread for Off Topic discussion started, see post #13,751, page 344)

Open Source Intel @Osint613
CENTCOM UPDATE

"Today at 12 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran. The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region."
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613
Reports from Bandar Abbas say the city was hit very heavy, with strikes reported in several areas, including the Air Force district and the Nabovat, Shaqou, Elahiyeh, Talaeiyeh and Pardis areas.

The exact targets are not yet clear.
 

W*T*H: What the Hormuz Is Going On?​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeQwZgWN9dw

Run time - 29:42
Sep 1, 2026
In this episode of What's Going on With Shipping, Sal Mercogliano returns to home base to unpack the chaotic and conflicting reports surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. With tensions rising and maritime security at the forefront, we dive deep into the data to separate fact from fiction regarding global oil transit and the reality of the current blockade.

Key Topics Covered:
⚓Recent Tanker Attacks: A detailed breakdown of the five most recent attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz, including the Metro Venetian, Al Salam 2, and Bergen.
⚓The "Blockade" Reality: Analyzing the effectiveness of the U.S. naval blockade and why Iranian crude exports have hit record lows while other regional shipping continues under new security protocols.
⚓Oil Export Myths: Debunking reports of "pre-war levels" by calculating the 2.9-billion-barrel deficit in global supply and explaining how global storage is hitting multi-year lows.
⚓Tracking the "Dark" Fleet: How analysts use loading terminal data and offloading sightings to track ships that have turned off their AIS to avoid detection.
⚓Market Impacts: Why shipping rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) are soaring to nearly $650,000 per day and what this means for global energy prices.
⚓The "Shuttle" Strategy: How Saudi Arabia (Bahri), Kuwait (KOTC), and the UAE (ADNOC) are using national registries and self-insurance to keep oil moving through the Strait.

00:00 - Introduction & Welcome Back
01:11 - U.S. Strikes on IRGC Targets
02:26 - Analysis of Recent Tanker Attacks
04:11 - Debunking the New Channel Rumors
06:11 - Tracking Transits & Turning Off AIS
07:23 - Mine Clearance vs. Maritime Security
09:10 - Skyrocketing Tanker Rates & Market Impact
13:14 - The Success of the Iranian Oil Blockade
15:32 - How to Actually Track Global Oil Flow
17:03 - The 2.9 Billion Barrel Deficit
19:21 - Data Breakdown: Pre-War vs. Current Levels
21:18 - Visualizing the Crude Oil Tanker Market
25:01 - National Shipping Lines & The "Shuttle" Strategy
27:58 - Final Assessment: The Fragile Global Supply
28:46 - Conclusion & Channel Support

Marine Traffic
www.marinetraffic.com

Seasearcher
https://www.seasearcher.com

U.S. Strikes Iran as Tanker Attacks Raise Stakes in Strait of Hormuz
https://gcaptain.com/u-s-strikes-iran...

Tom Bike on X
https://x.com/tom_bike

CENTCOM Says Iran Attempts to Intimidate Shipping with False Reports
https://maritime-executive.com/articl...

INTERTANKO: Hormuz Mine Clearance ‘Not Sufficient’ to Restore Normal Shipping
https://gcaptain.com/intertanko-hormu...

Iranian Misrepresentations Over the Strait of Hormuz Addressed by Oman
https://maritime-executive.com/articl...

Hormuz ‘storm’ propels VLCC spot market, asset prices and long-term rates
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158317/...

Oil Tankers Make Fortunes During War as Sinokor Dominates
https://gcaptain.com/oil-tankers-make...

Iran Reaches Seven Weeks Without Crude Exports Due to US Hormuz Blockade
https://www.marinelink.com/news/iran-...

Michelle Wiese Bockman on X
https://x.com/Michellewb_
 
According to Tousi there have been three ramming incidents. Mashhad, Shiraz, and an unnamed location. The first two have been confirmed. The third hasn’t at this time, but believed to be true. ALL ramming attacks were against IRGC rallies.

Iran launched two missiles from near Bandar Abbas. Both malfunctioned and fell to earth. AT THE SAME TIME AND AREA, the IRGC claims the U.S. targeted a wedding. Four killed, a number injured. The U.S. denies firing any missiles in that area at that time. (To be clear, we had been attacking near there earlier, but didn’t fire anything in that specific area at that time.)

Jordan reports a total of 13 incoming missiles. 10 shot down, 3 hit uninhabited areas, for that reason no attempt at a shoot down was made. Save ammo.

Fuel lines have become insane. People are joining the line at 2 A.M. only to get nothing some time the next morning after they’ve waited in line for 8 hours or more. More small spontaneous anti gov protests have been popping up here and there.

Last, major companies in Iran are shutting down because of the fuel crisis. Trunks don’t roll, parts and materials don’t get delivered. Stuff doesn’t make it to the shop/store/business, everybody go home. There’s no work today. More people on the street with empty bellies and wallets.

OPPPS, I forgot. More Basij checkpoints are coming under attack by average citizens every day.
 
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Iran Admits US Sanctions Are Hurting Economy as Oil Trade Slumps 25%-35%, Fuel Shortages Worsen: 'We Have Many Problems'​

Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has addressed the economic hardships his nation is experiencing due to U.S. sanctions. In a recent interview with state media, he underscored the necessity of national unity to overcome these challenges.

In an interview with Tasnim News on Friday, Pezeshkian pointed out several issues, including inflation, unemployment, and trade restrictions. "We have many problems…but the people are with us," he stated, according to a Google translation of the Persian conversation. He warned that military might alone cannot salvage a nation if its unity is compromised.

"If this unity is broken….We may even have missiles and bombs, but they are of no use," The Iranian President said.

He also mentioned that imports, including gasoline, are not reaching Iran due to a naval blockade. This blockade has not only impeded Iran's oil exports but also led to shortages and long queues at gas stations. Despite being a major oil producer, Iran is grappling with the import of refined fuel.

The President discussed efforts to reduce fuel demand and raise prices, but warned against further burdening those already under pressure. He estimated that Iranian oil trade has decreased by 25%-35%, with imports falling significantly more than exports.

"Saying that sanctions have no effect is not consistent with these facts," Pezeshkian stated.

Iran's Economic Crisis Deepens Amid Conflict​


The economic challenges Iran is facing are deeply rooted in the ongoing conflict with the U.S. The Trump administration is tightening financial pressure on Iran, targeting a shadow-banking network accused of moving $1.8 billion through 103 companies to help Tehran evade sanctions. The crackdown could increasingly put China in Washington's crosshairs, given Beijing's role as Iran's major oil buyer and economic lifeline.

Iran is grappling with inflation above 80%, food prices rising by 100%, and a projected 6.1% economic contraction, as per the IMF. More than 1 million jobs were also estimated to have been lost by late May.

The U.S. military said that it has cleared Iranian sea mines from key shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, reopening internationally recognized transit routes after months of operations. On Sunday, U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers after detecting IRGC preparations to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on two U.S. bases in Jordan, while Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles with no casualties or damage.

finance.yahoo.com

Iran Admits US Sanctions Are Hurting Economy as Oil Trade Slumps 25%-35%, Fuel Shortages Worsen: 'We Have Many Problems'

Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has addressed the economic hardships his nation is experiencing due to U.S. sanctions. In a recent interview with state media, he underscored the necessity of national unity to overcome these challenges. In an interview with Tasnim...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613
An Iranian police officer says the economic crisis is becoming unbearable even for security forces.

He says officers are struggling to survive financially and that he has been unable to afford milk for his household.

“Who can I tell my pain to? I look at my colleagues and they are all like me.” x.com/TheIranWatcher…
 
Open Source Intel @Osint613
THOUGHTS: Something has changed in the U.S. strategy toward Iran.

If you look closely at the latest threats and the economic campaign. What is missing are specific demands. The U.S. is no longer publicly saying: do this, give up that, and we will relieve the pressure.

Trump is now saying he is not trying to force Iran back to the negotiating table. He is openly asking when the Iranian people will rise up and fight.

At the same time, the economic noose is tightening. Shipping, banking, oil, aviation, digital assets, everything and anyone helping the regime can be targeted. The squeeze is getting
tighter almost every day… In literally one one week Irans currency lost 10% of its value.

My read is that the U.S. is moving away from trying to negotiate a better deal and toward something much more ambitious: a slow burn strategy designed to collapse the Islamic Republic until the system can no longer sustain itself.

I have said from the beginning that the economic operation is more dangerous to the regime than another round of bombing.

But there is another side to this. Ordinary Iranians will suffer enormously under this pressure. I strongly believe many Iranians are willing to pay that price if it means the job finally gets done. If the U.S. is deliberately creating conditions that could bring down the regime, it cannot tighten the noose halfway and then reverse course. No 80% done, none of that, this time, it has to go all the way.

No Pakistan, no Qatar calls, economic pressure until the end.

(This is my personal opinion - Jay)
 
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-99nnD3Cd4


RT 18 min

In this episode of What’s Going on With Shipping, we dive into the escalating "tanker-for-tanker" conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Following a series of Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, the U.S. has initiated precise strikes to disable Iranian tankers without causing environmental damage. We break down the data on vessel transits, the massive impact on global oil storage, and the mounting economic pressure on both the Iranian economy and the U.S. Navy.Key highlights in this video:⚓Mission Kills: Analysis of the U.S. strikes on the Suezmax vessel Sinopa and the VLCC Hawk off the port of Jask.⚓The Dark Fleet: How nearly 500 ships have transited the Strait "dark" (with AIS off) since June to avoid detection.⚓Oil Inventory Crisis: Why U.S. and global oil storage levels are hitting multi-year lows, threatening a massive price spike.⚓The Insurance Toll: Why war-risk claims have reached $2 billion, marking the second-largest payout for marine underwriters in a decade.⚓Strategic Standoff: A look at the 20 Iranian tankers currently sitting off Sri Lanka and whether they are the next targets for U.S. Pacific Command.
 
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