WAR Iran/ US/mideast war thread - 2/28/26 Open Hostilities (Thread for Off Topic discussion started, see post #13,751, page 344)

BREAKING: 10+ US Air Force KC-135R aerial refueling tankers arrived from the US to Israeli bases in the past few hours, bringing the total to nearly 100 aerial refueling tankers in Israel, with the massive USAF airlift from Europe to the Middle East still ongoing. The US also deployed 2 EA-37B "Compass Call" electronic warfare aircraft today, specialized in Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) missions to jam radars and communications, likely for a Pickaxe Mountain strike in combination with the recently deployed B-1 Lancer. The massive new US operation against Iran is likely to begin tonight as soon as markets close, including the direct/indirect involvement of Israel.

View: https://twitter.com/HormuzLetter/status/2080641555686126053
 

The Double Chokehold: Houthis Choke the Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi Oil​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT7Dzt60Rj4

Run time - 13:55
Jul 24, 2026

The maritime crisis in the Middle East intensifies as the Houthis announce a formal blockade against Saudi Arabia, targeting two major tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb. This episode analyzes the strikes on two Saudi tankers, the immediate spike in war risk insurance, and how this new front in the Red Sea—combined with the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz—is creating a global energy chokehold.

We also look at the impact on Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, the role of Russian and Chinese shipping in the region, and the growing dangers of "dark fleet" tankers like the Carolyn Benzeni off the coast of Oman. As freedom of the seas faces its greatest challenge in decades, what does this mean for global trade and the price of oil?

  • Houthi Blockade Analysis: A look at the recent attacks on Saudi tankers Encilia and Layla and the Houthi declaration of a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.
  • The "Double Chokehold": How simultaneous pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb is threatening critical Saudi oil pipelines and global supply lines.
  • Economic Ripple Effects: The impact of skyrocketing war risk insurance—jumping from 3% to 7.5%—and what this means for the cost of moving goods through the region.
  • Inefficient Alternatives: Why rerouting oil through the Suez Canal involves complex ship-to-ship transfers and how this mirrors the logistical challenges currently faced by Russian oil exports.
  • The Dark Fleet Threat: The environmental and legal risks highlighted by the breaking up of the Carolyn Benzeni off the coast of Oman.
  • Freedom of the Seas: A broader discussion on the challenges facing global naval forces and the shifting dominance in the world's shipbuilding market.
00:00 - Introduction
00:50 - Houthi Maritime Embargo Against Saudi Arabia
02:19 - Attack on Tankers: Amfilia and Laela
02:52 - Impact on Shipping and War Risk Insurance
04:16 - Selective Transit: Chinese and Russian Vessels
04:55 - U.S. Response and Geopolitical Context
05:55 - Two Chokepoints Locked: Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
06:19 - Challenges of Rerouting Oil Through the Suez Canal
08:02 - Dark Fleet Dangers: Carolyn Benzeni and Cabo Malalius
09:30 - Global Shipping at Peril: A Multi-Dimensional Conflict
11:36 - The Cost of Freedom of the Seas
13:11 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
 

President Trump Warns China and Russia of Supporting Iran​


July 24, 2026 | Sundance | 134 Comments

There is a level of no-so-subtle pretense within this messaging from President Trump that is not good.​

As noted in this Truth Social message, President Trump notes it is unlikely that people around Chairman Xi and people around President Putin would be providing military, logistics, targeting or weapons support for Iran for the same reason President Trump is not providing military, logistics, targeting or weapons support to Ukraine.

TRUTH SOCIAL – “President Xi, at our recent meeting in Beijing, China, told me that he would not, under any circumstances, give or sell Weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran — And that statement included Chinese Companies. Considering our relationship, I take him at his word and, besides, l am doing him very big favors, also.
Likewise, President Putin, despite the horrible War going on in Ukraine (The relationship remains, as it does with President Zelenskyy), told me that he would not sell Weapons to Iran. He understands that I do not sell Weapons to Ukraine, but to NATO Countries. They pay full price, and how those Weapons are distributed, I have no idea.
Therefore, two major Countries that people speak of often in terms of Iran are, in my opinion, not participating. If they did, it would be very bad for them — Certainly not in their best interests. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” ~
President DONALD J. TRUMP

I strongly doubt non-pretending Russian President Vladimir Putin draws a distinction between the U.S. sending drone technology and missiles to Ukraine -vs- the U.S. sending drones and military technology to NATO Germany for forwarding to Ukraine.

As a consequence, if China is sending weapons, tech or military support to Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan or Turkmenistan and that material ends up in Iran by proxy, then Beijing is doing nothing different than President Trump using France, the U.K, Poland or Germany to support Ukraine. Gentleman’s geopolitical handshakes notwithstanding.

At a certain point, each country has to evaluate their risk vector against the reality of a geopolitical dynamic being driven by U.S. interests that are not necessarily under the command and control of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The newly defined “unelected” political version of ‘western democracy’, represented by Brussels, Ukraine and the U.K, all of which have political leadership as an outcome of selection not election, creates very dynamic risks.

Things have changed rapidly in the past 15 years. Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin is very exposed to those “new democracy” risks as was Muamar Khadaffi before him. Remember, the attacks against Libya were a NATO operation, led by NATO Allied Commander General James Stavridis. Show me in either policy or practical reality where NATOs interests were threatened by Libya; yet NATO led the regime change attack. That’s why, in this context, I select 2012 as the modern origin of this new NATO unelected democracy building.

Bottom line – Is China or Russia providing non-weapon support for Iran? Well, if they followed the USA model in providing non-weapon support for Ukraine, the answer is it’s quite possible.

Perhaps this {{nudge, nudge – wink, wink}} geopolitical brinkmanship explains the not-so-subtle shift in USA and Trump’s policy support in favor of Ukraine. Whatever the cause, things are less stable than before, and we are stuck in Military depletion mode while operating intensely against Iran.

Remember, in our conversations at the Treehouse, we accept things as they are not as we would prefer them to be.
 
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
58m

The strike coordination jet is on the runway in Saudi Arabia...

-A U.S. Air Force E-11A BACN communications aircraft is preparing to take off from Prince Sultan Air Base, tasked with aggregating communications for American strike teams

-The platform is a flying relay station, stitching together fighters, bombers, and ground controllers across distances where normal radios fail

-Its purpose in theater is coordinating large multi-aircraft packages, which is why it surfaces before complex operations rather than routine patrols

-It's part of a buildup that includes B-1s in Britain, medics at Landstuhl, and surging airlifts

Source: Geopolitics Watch / Writer: Daniel
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2080792738019033188?s=20
 
VivaRevolt reposted
The Hormuz Report
@HormuzReport
6h

BREAKING: Iran threatens UK with Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missile — declaring RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia "legitimate targets" for hosting U.S. B-1 bombers, Tasnim News.

IRGC: "The U.S. shifted to British bases after depleting cruise missile stocks. We warn the British monarchy not to burden its case further."

The Khorramshahr-4, used in the March 19 strike on Diego Garcia (3,800km away), could reach parts of the UK. Britain would have just 20 minutes warning — Mach 10.
 
ME24 - Middle East 24
@MiddleEast_24
1h

WSJ EXPOSES SECRET GULF AIRSTRIKES INSIDE IRAN

In a historic escalation, Bahrain and Kuwait secretly dispatched fighter jets to bombard military installations inside Iran earlier this month, marking their first direct military strikes against Tehran.
The coordinated offensive targeted Iranian drone production hubs, missile storage depots, and key military sites, with the UAE providing critical intelligence support and defensive air cover. The bold operation signals a dramatic shift toward active military cooperation among Gulf nations following repeated Iranian drone and missile strikes against regional infrastructure.

Source: The Wall Street Journal (WSJ)

Follow @MiddleEast_24
for breaking regional updates and verified security analysis.
 
:hmm:

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
45m

A failed Patriot interceptor reportedly crashed into a Bahrain neighborhood.

-Alleged footage shows a U.S. Patriot interceptor malfunctioning and coming down in a residential area of Bahrain, with nothing verified on casualties or damage

-It follows tonight's sirens across the kingdom and unconfirmed footage of a ballistic missile impact in Manama

-Interceptor failures are a documented wartime reality: the missiles occasionally lose track and fall back, and their debris has caused injuries across the Gulf all war, including the child wounded by shrapnel in Qatar

-Bahrain hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet and has absorbed Iranian barrages through the entire campaign

Source: DD Geopolitics on TG / Writer: Daniel
 
:hmm:

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
2h

Trump blamed dead American soldiers on local partners. Americans operate those defenses.

Ian Bremmer points to the moment that offended the room: sitting with Lebanon's president, Trump explained the Jordan base deaths by saying local partners don't run US defenses well.

Except American soldiers operate the air defenses in Jordan themselves.

Then came the post comparing how few Americans died versus other wars.

Ian says the understating is deliberate.

Downplay the casualties, and you never have to answer them, because Trump genuinely doesn't want all-out war.

The problem is Tehran knows it, and as long as Iran believes escalation carries limited consequences, the ships keep burning and the economic bill keeps growing.

@ianbremmer
rt5
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2080820864065438109?s=20
 

Pentagon lowers official Iran war death toll, omitting four killed this month​

PUBLISHED FRI, JUL 24 20262:09 AM EDTUPDATED FRI, JUL 24 202611:41 AM

KEY POINTS
  • The Pentagon tally system showed 14 deaths on Thursday, compared with 18 previously.
  • The New York Times reported that one reason was that their deaths came after President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire in April.
  • The revision comes amid scrutiny of the administration’s handling of casualty data as the Middle East conflict drags on.
The Pentagon lowered its official death toll for the Iran war to 14 from 18 in the space of a day, after the Trump administration removed four service members killed this month from the count, according to the Defense Casualty Analysis System.

The Pentagon’s casualty database showed seven of the 14 total deaths were classified as “hostile.” The New York Times reported the change in count earlier.


Three military officials told the Times that the four service members killed this past weekend — three in Jordan and one in northern Iraq — were struck from the list because their deaths came after President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire in April. All of the deaths listed on Thursday U.S. time on the website, which said it was updated as of Wednesday, occurred in March.

The Pentagon and the State Department did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

 
nypost.com

Exclusive | US mulls plan to snatch enriched uranium from Iran's nuclear facilities: 'most sophisticated op in history'​





It’s the nuclear option.

American Special Operations forces are waiting in the wings to launch the “most sophisticated operation in military history” to seize Iran’s enriched uranium from heavily fortified nuclear sites.

“I hate to say it, but I think the most likely way to get rid of Iran’s nuclear material, at least what they currently have, is a military operation because the negotiations aren’t going anywhere fast,” said Joseph Rodgers, deputy director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The deeply complex operation would involve thousands of ground troops storming Iran’s nuclear facilities — navigating boobytraps, utilizing construction crews, and maintaining a large defensive blocking force surrounding the sites — a source familiar with military planning told The Post on Friday.

A Special Forces operation that would snatch the uranium out of Iran would be “the most sophisticated operation in military history,” according to an expert. USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20)
From there, a small team of special operators would conduct the actual retrieval — a “highly dangerous” process, the person said.

“I think this would be one of the most, if not the most, sophisticated operations in military history,” said Rodgers.
“This would be a logistically heavy and difficult operation in a contested environment. Iran’s military is pretty destroyed, but they’re still more sophisticated than the Cubans that were guarding Maduro.”

The group of special operators could include SEAL Team 6’s Silver Squadron, the 2nd Ranger Battalion, and the Army’s 21st Ordnance Company, according to a report from plugged-in independent outlet The High Side.
The 21st Ordnance Company would be responsible for handling and transporting the whatever quantity of enriched uranium out of facilities from the mostly destroyed Fordo facility and the severely damaged Isfahan facility, according to the report.
The IAEA reported in 2025 that Iran had upwards of 20,000 pounds of enriched uranium.
Satellite overview of Isfahan nuclear complex and adjacent tunnels.
The remotely located and well guarded Isfahan nuclear facility has been outfitted with boobytraps in recent weeks as the Iranians prepare for a potential invasion seeking to confiscate enriched uranium. Satellite image ©2026 Vantor via AP
“You need to create a secure perimeter around all of the sites that you’re trying to go in and grab the material from. That would require ground forces to secure a perimeter and then create a secure convoy route to the airstrip,” said Rodgers.
US military crews would have to dig out the destroyed entrances of the sites while holding off attacks from the Iranian military.

“So how long can you sustain that and still be able to exfiltrate all of your forces?” said Richard Goldberg, who served as director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction for the White House National Security Council in the first Trump administration.
The mission would further require complete control of a corridor of airspace that would allow the military to fly to a secure location.
Iran has been preparing for an attack on the Isfahan facility.

A member of the 21st Ordnance Company (pictured) would
supposedly be tasked with grabbing the uranium at the sites in Iran. 20th CBRNE Command
“We have seen reports of Iran hardening the facility at Isfahan, booby traps being laid, and potentially perimeter forces being stationed,” said Goldberg.
“There is no element of surprise at the moment. The targets are fixed. We know where they are. The Iranians know where they are.”
Iran has placed mines and explosives in the tunnels of the Isfahan facility in anticipation of a raid on the facility, according to a CNN report last month.
Satellite image of a destroyed vehicle and surrounding terrain near Pickaxe Mountain in Natanz.
The facility at Pickaxe Mountain in Natanz is now allegedly housing hundreds of Iranian regime centrifuges. DigitalGlobe/Getty Images

Pickaxe Mountain has emerged as a new target after it was reported that Iran transported hundreds of nuclear centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear enrichment location in the last month.
“We don’t know how many centrifuges are down there. Would they be looking to actually disassemble, destroy, bring them out? I mean, more likely, if you had to do a special operations mission inside Pickaxe Mountain the reason you would do that is you don’t think you can collapse the facility by airstrike,” Goldberg said.

The determination on whether airstrikes would be sufficient relies on US intelligence community knowledge on the schematics and weak points of the building — much like the bunker busters which targeted the Achille’s heel airshaft of the heavily fortified Fordo, according to Goldberg.
“That’s a destroy mission,” said Goldberg. “If you were to try to get into the facility, you’d be seeking to collapse the facility.”
Unlike the Isfahan and Fordo, the US could potentially see quick success in Pickaxe.
“Pickaxe Mountain, potentially, could be like the Maduro raid,” he said of the operation that arrested the Venezuelan ex-dictator Nicolas Maduro in the presidential compound of capital city Caracas.

“Because you are infiltrating, you’re setting explosives, and you’re getting out,” said Goldberg.

Exclusive | US mulls plan to snatch enriched uranium from Iran’s nuclear facilities: ‘most sophisticated op in history’
 
hard to argue that point eh- or to downplay the havoc n hardship that could be visited upon many of our western population centers, should any o' the kray-krays set their minds to unleashing it.

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
1h

Iran claims to have smuggled sleeper agents into the UK who pretended to be asylum seekers.

One Iranian official claimed "revolutionary people" had been positioned in London and warned Tehran could "easily make London unsafe" if it chose to do so.

Clearly the official hasn't been to London for some time, since Beirut is probably safer than most parts of London these days.

Source: The Telegraph / Writer: Ian
 
Will Collier reposted
Erick Erickson
@EWErickson
Jul 24

Ending the regime does not mean boots on the ground. It does not mean an American invasion of Iran. We do not need to land the 82nd Airborne outside Tehran. What it means is that we take the chains off the Israelis and let them get back in this fight. Remember the video of Israeli drones flying over Tehran, hunting down the Basij, the motorcycle militia, blowing them up while ordinary Iranians who despise these thugs called in the targets on their own cell phones? The Israelis have a destabilization plan. They asked to run it, and the president told them no, because he wanted to humor Turkey and Pakistan and the people who cannot stand Israel.

Free the Israelis. Let them make it so painful for the regime that Tehran cannot mount the reserves to pay the Houthis or bomb the Gulf. Arm the citizens of Iran and let the internal strife the regime has earned come home to roost. A regime fighting for its own survival on its own streets does not have the time or the money to hold your grocery bill hostage from six thousand miles away. That is the road out. The sooner we take it, the sooner oil comes back down, the sooner the shelves settle, and the sooner Iran loses the one weapon it has left against this country and this election. Mr. President, fish or cut bait. Poop or get off the pot. You didn’t have to start this war, but you did. The Iranians already know this is about our election. You might as well know it too.

 
ILREDALERT @ILREDALERT Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia has provided Iran with satellite imagery of Gulf states and U.S. military facilities to help direct strikes. He said Ukrainian intelligence recorded Russian satellite surveillance of targets before and after Iranian attacks, and plans to share the information with partners.
 
Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal
Saudi jets are reportedly circling the Houthi ground battle in Yemen.

-Saudi fighter jets were reported above Al-Jawf governorate, where heavy clashes are running between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Al-Juayd tribal fighters at the Al-Muhayr checkpoint

-Casualties are already reported among the Saudi-backed fighters on the ground

-Al-Jawf sits on the Saudi border, one of the fronts frozen when the truce took hold four years ago

Writer: Daniel
x.com/TabzLIVE/statu…
 

EX-CIA&PEPE Exposes:Why the IRAN Bombing Stopped on Night 14 as USA is blind-CHINA'S MASTER PLAN​

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gx8OdX5wjI

Run time - 39:55
Jul 25, 2026

AMERICA IS BLIND: Why the Iran Bombing Stopped on Night 14

For the first time in fourteen nights, American bombs did not fall on Iran.

In this emergency Saturday session, Larry Johnson reports that the reason is not diplomacy but capability: the ground-based radars across Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have been destroyed, the United States is now flying P-8 Poseidons to substitute for fixed sensors, and the command-and-control traffic that must precede a mass air campaign is not moving between Central Command at MacDill and the air operations centre now running out of Shaw Air Force Base.

Zulfiqar Ali reports that the second reason sits in Beijing and Islamabad — after three Trump–Asim Munir calls in a single week, each producing an off-ramp Washington then discarded, the mediation channel has been deliberately switched off.

Pepe Escobar joins from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ministerial in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan, where Araghchi, Lavrov, Wang Yi and Ishaq Dar sat at the same table this week. He explains what Wang Yi’s four-point proposal actually means — public Chinese endorsement of Pakistani mediation, a demand that Washington return to the memorandum rather than renegotiate it, and an invitation to the Gulf states to reconsider the American security umbrella.

The three also cover the Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities at Jazan and Yanbu, why Yanbu appears to have been deliberately spared, Pakistan’s refusal to fight Riyadh’s war in Yemen, the global diesel and jet fuel shortage behind the oil market, and what a permanently altered West Asian security map looks like.

Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst and former deputy director of the US State Department’s Office of Counterterrorism.

Pepe Escobar has reported on Eurasian geopolitics for twenty-five years.

Zulfiqar Ali hosts Transition Protocol.

Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel covering the multipolar transition, de-dollarisation, energy security and great-power rivalry. Some claims in this episode are source-based and developing; they are identified as such on screen. Where reporting is confirmed by public record, that is noted.
 
FJ
@Natsecjeff
26m

The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that Iran was making increasing use of the Kheibar Shekan missile, described as "one of the key workhorses" in its missile arsenal. According to US officials, since fighting resumed this month, Iran has launched the missile at US bases while using different flight paths, speeds and maneuvers intended to make interception more difficult for US defense systems.

The United States and its partners have intercepted most of these missiles during the fighting, the report said, although some have penetrated the defensive systems. Military analysts said that unlike older Iranian missiles, the Kheibar Shekan can be kept fueled and quickly loaded onto mobile vehicle-mounted launchers, making it more difficult to strike before launch. Some versions are equipped with a small engine in the warhead that allows it to change direction during the final stage of flight at a speed of about 6,000 miles per hour, making it harder to detect and intercept.

Iran is also combining fast attack drones and simpler missiles against the same targets as part of an effort to adapt its combat methods during the war, according to the report.
 
:(
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
1h

Welker : Should the country brace for more American lives to be lost in this conflict?

Mike Waltz: Every man and woman who signs up to go serve knows of that eventually possibility

rt 2
View: https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2081376511882346842?s=20
When you sign up you should know you agree to give everything up to and including your life. Sadly many life’s are lost in training than in this war to date.
 
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
3m

Netanyahu on Iran:

"If Iran attacks Israel, either directly or through its proxies, whether with ballistic missiles, UAVs, or killer drones, it will make a terrible mistake, because Israel's response will be very, very forceful."

Israel has largely stuck to the sidelines during the latest flare-ups between Iran and the U.S., but that could change at any point...

Writer: Samuel

rt 33
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2081402915273764962?s=20
 
Mossad Commentary
@MOSSADil
30m

WATCH: THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS MUST BECOME A REGIONAL POWER BLOC

The Abraham Accords cannot remain symbolic agreements.

Former U.S. Ambassador David Friedman and Misgav Institute Executive Director Asher Fredman argue that Israel and its Arab partners must build a new U.S.-aligned regional architecture based on:

✅ Integrated defense against Iran
✅ Trade and strategic infrastructure
✅ AI, cyber, energy, and innovation
✅ Deeper cooperation between Israel and Arab states
✅ Expansion to new Muslim-majority countries
The choice is clear: build a stronger regional alliance—or allow Iran, China, and extremist forces to shape the Middle East.

WATCH the full congressional hearing. If you don't have the time now, BOOKMARK for later.
@fredman_a @DavidM_Friedman
live
View: https://twitter.com/MOSSADil/status/2081397662260105442?s=20
 
:hmm:

Clash Report
@clashreport
7h

The US has burned through roughly a third of its total pre-war stockpile of key precision munitions in Iran War.

Interceptors are the most exposed: up to 80% of THAAD (190–290 of 360), more than half of SM-3 (130–250 of 410), and up to 61% of Patriots (1,060–1,430 of 2,330) are gone.

Long-range strike weapons are also depleted at scale, with 1,000+ Tomahawks and 1,100+ JASSMs used, and nearly the entire small PrSM stockpile (40–70 of 90) fired.
View: https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/2081308839941443810?s=20


Source: ABC, CSIS

From the Telegraph

Trump pauses Iran strikes over missile shortages​

Concerns over dwindling interceptor supplies to defend US bases played central role in White House decision
 
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