WAR Iran/ US/mideast war thread - 2/28/26 Open Hostilities (Thread for Off Topic discussion started, see post #13,751, page 344)

auxman

auxman

Deus vult...
jward

jward

passin' thru
bbc.com

One killed and dozens injured in Iranian drone strikes on Kuwait airport​



Jaroslav Lukiv
3 hours ago

Jaroslav Lukivand
Toby Mann

One person has been killed and more than 60 injured in Iranian drone strikes on Kuwait's international airport, local officials have said.

Kuwait's defence ministry spokesman called Wednesday's attack "criminal Iranian aggression", while the foreign ministry said diplomatic missions had been damaged.
Later on Wednesday, Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) denied responsibility for the airport strike, claiming the damage was caused by an error from a US missile interceptor.

US Central Command (Centcom) said this was false and claimed Iran struck the airport in a "deliberate, calculated and unjustified attack".
The IRGC had earlier said it targeted US bases in the Gulf in retaliation for US strikes on an Iranian oil tanker and Qeshm Island.
The US said it had launched "self-defence" strikes on Iran, and shot down or intercepted Iranian missiles fired at Kuwait and Bahrain.

Iran also claimed on Wednesday it targeted a US navy ship in the Gulf of Oman, which was also denied by Centcom.
The latest escalation threatens a shaky US-Iran ceasefire.
The person who was killed in the Iranian attack on Kuwait's airport was later identified as an Indian citizen.
In a statement, the Indian foreign ministry condemned the attack, saying that several other Indian nationals were injured.
"We again call upon parties to cease such attacks," the statement added.

Following the strikes, Kuwait's foreign ministry ordered two Iranian diplomats to leave the country within 24 hours, and summoned Iran's charge d'affaires.
Earlier, Centcom said that its overnight strikes on Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz, were "in response to attempted attacks by Iran across the Middle East" and targeted an Iranian military ground control station.
It also said that the US shot down three attack drones that had been launched by Iran toward "civilian mariners that were rightfully transiting regional waters".

Centcom added that Iran had fired two missiles at Kuwait and three at Bahrain, all of which broke apart or were intercepted.
Iran said it had attacked US bases and helicopters in a "regional country" using missiles and drones in retaliation.
Reuters People run amid smoke from a fire, in the aftermath of Iranian strikes, according to the foreign ministry, at Kuwait International Airport in Kuwait City
Reuters
Kuwait International Airport was hit by Iranian drones, the Kuwait military said

Centcom earlier said it had struck and "disabled" an unladen oil tanker that was sailing towards Iran, as part of the US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, which began on 13 April.
A US aircraft fired a Hellfire missile into the engine room of the Botswana-flagged M/T vessel, after its crew "ignored repeated warnings", it said.

The IRGC immediately vowed retaliation, saying that "disrupting the security of the Strait of Hormuz will carry a heavy price for the aggressive US military".
In Tehran, the foreign ministry said in a statement that the leaders of Kuwait and Bahrain had "direct and unmistakable responsibility" for "last night's acts of aggression", according to AFP news agency.
Iran has repeatedly attacked targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, where US military bases are located.
The attacks happened as ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran stalled, with a deal to end the war failing to advance over the weekend.
Map titled “US blockade of Iran’s Gulf coast” showing Iran’s southern coastline along the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. A red-shaded coastal strip labelled “Iranian territorial waters” runs from near Kharg Island in the northwest to the Gulf of Oman in the southeast, with a bold red line marking the blockade. Purple dots indicate “ports and major jetties” along the coast, including locations near Kharg Island, Qeshm Island, and Bandar Abbas. The Strait of Hormuz is labelled between the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. A red annotation box states: “US blockade will affect all ships travelling to or from Iran’s Gulf coast.” A small inset map highlights the region’s location in the Middle East. A scale bar shows 250 km / 100 miles, and the source is marinerregions.org, with a BBC logo at the bottom.

US President Donald Trump this week told his critics to "sit back and relax", saying that Iran "really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the USA".

US media earlier reported that Trump had requested edits to the terms of a potential peace deal, after meeting with senior aides to discuss extending the framework of a ceasefire.
The changes related to the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran, the BBC's US news partner CBS News reported - as well as a framework to reopen negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme.
On Monday, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei denied this had been on the table, adding that Washington was "constantly changing its views and putting forward new or contradictory demands".

In an interview aired on Wednesday, Trump said Iran had "already agreed" to not have a nuclear weapon.
Trump said Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was "involved" in the talks.
"We seem to be getting along quite well," Trump told the Pod Force One podcast.
Asked if he would like to meet him, he said: "I'd like to meet him. We probably will meet at some point, depending on how it all works out."

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress on Tuesday that negotiators had not offered Iran sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the strait.

"Right now, everything that's been discussed with them is that … any sanctions relief is condition-based, which means it has to be in return for the reason why those sanctions were put in place in the first place, which is their nuclear programme," he said.
"The war is over," he said in another tense exchange with a senator, as lawmakers on the committee questioned the US strategy for ending the conflict.
www.bbc.com

One killed and dozens injured in Iranian drone strikes on Kuwait airport

Iran says the attack on Kuwait was in retaliation for earlier US strikes on an Iranian oil tanker and island.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
TankerTrackers.com, Inc. reposted
Wood Mackenzie
@WoodMackenzie
5h

The U.S. blockade is officially choking off Iranian oil.️

As the Middle East conflict approaches the 100-day mark, the U.S. military blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz is actively constraining oil exports from Iran’s Kharg Island terminal - and the upstream sector is beginning to feel the squeeze.

The immediate fallout:
Crude loadings plummeted by over 60% in May.
Monthly oil production fell 10.5% month-on-month.
More than 600 kb/d offline as of June 1.

With upstream impacts accelerating, tracking these shifts in real-time is critical for navigating the volatile market. Follow the latest production trends with Wood Mackenzie’s High Frequency Oil Production Monitor here: https://okt.to/MNtBhX


(Production estimates include both crude and condensate)

#MiddleEast #Crude #Production
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2062232876884590765
View: https://twitter.com/WoodMackenzie/status/2062232876884590765?s=20
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
AF Post
@AFpost
37m

The House has passed a War Powers resolution to curtail President Trump’s authority to wage war in Iran, advancing the measure in a 218-205 vote.

Republican Reps. Thomas Massie, Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett, and Warren Davidson joined Democrats in backing the resolution.

Follow: @AFpost
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
@shanaka86
1h

BREAKING: The US House just voted 215 to 208 to end the Iran war.

The same day, Iran bombed Kuwait’s main airport and the US bombed Iran.

Both are true. The gap between them is the whole story.

The vote is historic, and misunderstood. It is the first time either chamber of Congress has passed a measure against this war since it began more than three months ago, and 4 Republicans crossed the aisle to do it. But it stops nothing. It is a concurrent resolution: it never reaches Trump’s desk, it still has to pass the Senate, its legal force is disputed, and Trump will contest it. It does not end the war. It measures how toxic the war has become.

So why did 4 Republicans break? The rebuke was aimed at Trump’s handling of the conflict and, in the reporting’s own words, the economic fallout, a war that has rattled the global economy with no end in sight. That is oil propped up by a draining reserve, fertilizer the world’s biggest importer now pays nearly double for, and the strait still shut since February. Congress just voted on the price of crude and bread. It only called it a war.

But the same afternoon, the war got bigger. Iranian drones and missiles hammered Kuwait’s main airport, killed 1 and wounded more than 60, and forced it shut. The US answered with a strike on an Iranian military site on Qeshm Island, inside the Strait of Hormuz. Israel kept hitting Lebanon, the sticking point Tehran says any deal must cover. The mediators were already cut off. Oil ticked up about 2%, Brent back near $97, while the strait stayed shut.

This is the new phase: a divergence. Abroad, the war is widening, Gulf states hit, Iran hitting back, talks frozen. At home, the will to keep paying for it is cracking for the first time. The binding constraint is sliding off the battlefield and onto the floor of Congress. Increasingly, the limit is not Iran. It is the bill.

The vote will not stop the war. But it is the first time the cost of one shut strait reached the floor of the House. The war is not ending. The willingness to keep paying for it is.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
:hmm:

Open Source Intel
@Osint613
29m

U.S. Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) says he is growing increasingly concerned that President Donald Trump may make a deal with Iran.

"Nuclear dust, that’s the reason why we’re here. This is why I was reasoned and ok with setting myself politically on fire to be the only Democrat for the last 90 days voting against these war powers acts. Presidents always talk about their legacy. At this point, if you cave just for political convenience, what kind of legacy is that?"

(Jewish Insider)
 
TheHippie

TheHippie

** In Timeout **
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2062336921104261291
View: http://twitter.com/jessebwatters/status/2062336921104261291?s=46&t=nGVgcONItgQOe_JoKFy5Ww

Rt 5:40

Yesterday, in a meaningless vote, the House voted, 4 bad Republicans and all of the Dumocrats, to limit my War Powers, right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Who would do such an unpatriotic thing. They know where the negotiations stand. The Democrats are fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome. They would rather have our Country fail than give me another, of many, victories. The four Republicans, that’s a whole other story - They’re GRANDSTANDERS! They should be ashamed of themselves. MAGA!!! President DJT

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2062493304156192783
View: http://twitter.com/trumptruthonx/status/2062493304156192783?s=46&t=nGVgcONItgQOe_JoKFy5Ww
 
Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Erick Erickson -- quote from his Substack post today "Shooting in a more Moderate Manner"\

(just quoted as his assessment; does not indicate partial or any other level of agreement on the part of the poster)
----

open.substack.com

Shooting in a More Moderate Manner

There is a moment in every failing policy when the language gives the game away.
open.substack.com open.substack.com

There is a moment in every failing policy when the language gives the game away. The President supplied this on Wednesday. Asked in the Oval Office how he now defines the ceasefire he announced with Iran, he answered: "In that part of the world, ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner."

That is not a ceasefire. That is a confession.

On the same afternoon he offered that definition, the Republican-led House he commands voted 215 to 208 to rein him in, passing a war powers resolution directing him to half further hostilities against Iran. Four Republicans crossed the aisle to send it through. When a President's own chamber votes to take the matches away, the fire is real. He dithered and bought the opposition at home and in Iran time to work against him.

Consider how we arrived here. On February 28, American and Israeli forces struck Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure in a coordinated operation that, for one clarifying moment, put the Islamic Republic back on its heels. It was a winnable fight. We had the initiative, the firepower, and the moral clarity that comes from confronting a regime that, as even the Speaker reminded the House, declared war on us forty-seven years ago. Then we punted.

What followed was not victory but a managed drift. A two-week ceasefire became open-ended. Talks collapsed without a deal. And while Washington congratulated itself on de-escalation, Iran did what Iran always does with a pause: it used the time. Tehran mined the Strait of Hormuz--the artery through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas moves--and effectively closed it. The Pentagon now tells Congress it could take six months to clear those mines. Twenty percent of the world's energy supply is now held hostage by a regime we had on the ropes and chose to let up.

The drift has a body count. This week, Iran fired missiles and drones at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq, striking American positions and civilian ones alike. A drone hit Kuwait's international airport, killing a civilian and wounding dozens. Our Arab partners and the Israelis are left to absorb the blows of a war we started and declined to finish. That is the worst of both worlds: all the provocation, none of the resolution.

Then there is Lebanon. The President demanded Israel hold its fire, talked Netanyahu out of striking Beirut, and announced to the world that he had secured a halt--"all shooting will stop," he wrote, after claiming he got assurances in a phone call with a group the United States designates as terrorists. Within hours, the rockets were flying again. Hezbollah kept firing, Israel kept striking. The President's word, pledged on the world stage, was overtaken by events before his social media announcement had been retweeted.

This is what it looks like to mistake the appearance of peace for the substance of it. A ceasefire is not a press release. It is a condition on the ground. And the condition on the ground is that Iran is rearming, the Strait is sealed, our allies are under fire, and the man who started this is reduced to redefining the word "ceasefire" to mean shooting he doesn't mind as much.

The strategic tragedy writes itself. We took a winning position and are losing it by our own hand. If the President will neither act decisively nor let Israel finish the job, we will have done something almost unheard of in the annals of American power: started a war against a weakened adversary and handed that adversary the single prize it wanted most--a chokehold on the world's energy supply. Iran does not need to win. It only needs us to quit while it holds Hormuz. At the current pace, that is precisely the outcome we are arranging.

And here is what someone should tell the President, because it bears on his own political survival. A well-armed tyranny ruling an unarmed population is remarkably durable under economic pain. The Iranian regime can starve its people and shoot the ones who object. It has done so for decades. It will absorb two-hundred-dollar oil and call it resistance.

A republic founded not on theocratic rule, but on rule of the people, by the people, and for the people is different. It answers to voters--and these voters elected a President on a promise to crush the inflation Joe Biden left behind. Instead, they have watched costs climb under tariffs, trade wars, and not an actual war that has sent energy prices soaring with no end in sight. The mullahs can outlast economic misery. The coalition that put this President in office cannot. He is betting the American voter has the patience of a captive Iranian. That is a bet he will lose.

The honorable path is also the sound one: finish what we started, or get out of the way of the ally willing to.
Reopen Hormuz by force if Iran will not do it by agreement.
Stop calling a war a ceasefire and stop dignifying a rout as diplomacy.

Otherwise, the verdict will be brief and brutal. We had Iran beaten. We talked ourselves out of the win. And we let a regime that shoots its own citizens lecture us on what a ceasefire means--while we nodded along, shooting, as the President put it, "in a more moderate manner."
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic





Iran International English

@IranIntl_En


Iran-backed Iraqi armed faction Kataib Hezbollah said it would not hand over its weapons. "Not even a single bullet from a handgun will be handed over," the group said in a statement. It said the groups that had moved toward handing over weapons "have not been in the ranks of the resistance for a long time" and had not been targeted "even once by the American enemy." "As for the resistance factions, they remain firm, complete and preserving all their capabilities," the group said.
 
somewherepress

somewherepress

Has No Life - Lives on TB
library lady

library lady

Veteran Member
They'll be right there when the fighting is over...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2062652549778522181
"... Britain's RFA Lyme Bay, loaded with autonomous mine-hunting systems, already sailed for the region in late May.

Two details stand out. The U.S. has no purpose-built minesweepers in the Gulf and is retiring its last four, so Europe, which refused to back the war, is positioning to own the peace.

And Iran insists on demining the strait itself, which London and Paris say it simply can't do.

Even the cleanup is a fight over who controls the waterway.

Source: Bloomberg
 
Last edited:
T

TFergeson

In Timeout

Daily digest: 2026-06-04​

Get up to speed​

NO1
JUN 04, 2026

TL;DR: today vs. yesterday
​

The Iran war stopped being abstract: Iranian missiles and drones gutted Kuwait International Airport's Terminal 1, US bases in Kuwait took confirmed hangar hits, Iran's navy claims it "targeted" a US destroyer in the Gulf of Oman — and the same afternoon the House voted 215-208 to halt the war, the first congressional rebuke since it began. Markets ran the other risk-off playbook: Bitcoin broke $63k with $1.8Bliquidated, Broadcom cratered on an AI-chip miss, and the ECB confirmed gold has overtaken Treasuries as the top global reserve asset. SPR sits at a 2004 low while the strait stays shut.

1. Critical Alerts
​

  • Kuwait airport T1 destroyed, US bases hit. Iranian missiles/drones struck Kuwait International Airport Terminal 1 — 1 killed, 63+ injured, airport shut for months (MilitarySummary, zerohedge, Lord Bebo). Satellite imagery confirms hangar/warehouse destruction at Ali Al Salem and Camp Buehring (MenchOsint, AMK Mapping). HIGH.
  • CENTCOM caught reversing itself. After claiming 100% interception of the Kuwait attack, CENTCOM then accused Iran of a deliberate airport hit — the contradiction was flagged by many (MenchOsint, Daniel Davis, imetatronink). Iran's IRGC counter-claims the terminal was wrecked by a failed US Patriot. HIGH on the contradiction; attribution of cause unresolved.
  • House votes 215-208 to halt the Iran war.First time either chamber has passed a measure against the war; 4 Republicans crossed (Kobeissi, unusual_whales, Rep. Massie). Concurrent resolution — doesn't reach Trump's desk, Senate still needed. HIGH.

2. Core Themes
​

Iran–US: airport hit, destroyer "targeted," US repositioning
​

  • IRGC fired ballistic missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain overnight; the US answered with a strike on Qeshm Islandinside the Strait and hit an oil tanker bound for an Iranian port (MenchOsint, zerohedge top news).
  • Iran's navy says it struck the "command-and-control center" aboard a US destroyer in the Gulf of Oman with a truck-launched Ghadir anti-ship missile, citing the IRIS Dena (MenchOsint, War Noir). Caveat: one feed voice notes Iran has historically "[targeted]" — i.e. near-missed — US ships for effect.
  • Araghchi: no tangible progress; return to talks conditional on ending the Lebanon war; any Israeli strike on Beirut resumes the war (araghchi, AMK Mapping). Trump insists Iran is close to signing and "won't have a nuclear weapon" (zerohedge) — claims the feed treats as a 3-month-old refrain.
  • IAEA now sees Iran's proliferation risk higher than before the war began (zerohedge). Macgregor reports a massive US airlift into the region. HIGH.

Oil: SPR at a 2004 low, double-expected draw, Cushing tank bottoms
​

  • SPR down to 357M barrels (Hedgeye) — lowest since 2004, per FT via unusual_whales. EIA crude -7.8MM (double expectations) even after an 8MM SPR release; gasoline at 12-year lows, Cushing approaching tank bottoms (zerohedge, zerohedge).
  • Strait shut since February. Gulf states are planning bypass pipelines while the US quietly escorts ships through Hormuz (zerohedge); India's product exports collapsed -31% YoY as refiners keep fuel at home (Kobeissi).
  • Bear-case counterpoint worth carrying: a VLCC loaded 2M barrels at Kharg Island, undercutting the "Iranian wells will catastrophically shut in" thesis (Brett Erickson). Longer-curve diesel (Dec-2027) is rising (Karel Mercx). HIGH.

Lebanon: another "ceasefire" while the bombs keep falling
​

  • US State Dept announced an Israel–Lebanon ceasefire with "pilot zones" under exclusive LAF control (FirstSquawk) — which the feed read as a recycled headlinegiven Netanyahu the same day said Israel is "ready to resume full-scale escalation" and must demilitarize Lebanon.
  • Israeli jets bombed Shoukine, Shahabiyeh, Touline (Lord Bebo); a UNIFIL peacekeeper was killed by an Israeli strike near Marjayoun (MenchOsint). Hezbollah's FPV-drone campaign around Beaufort Castle killed two IDF soldiers and reportedly hit the Northern Command commander's vehicle (MenchOsint, jonelmer). The doctors describe Lebanon, not Gaza (Villgecrazylady). HIGH.
no1sdailydigest.substack.com

Daily digest: 2026-06-04

Get up to speed
no1sdailydigest.substack.com no1sdailydigest.substack.com
 
T

TFergeson

In Timeout

​

Daily digest: 2026-06-05​

Get up to speed​

NO1
JUN 05, 2026

TL;DR: today vs. yesterday
​

Trump's Lebanon ceasefire was rejected by Hezbollah within hours as Hezbollah burned through ~6 Merkavas around Beaufort Castle, Oman's main oil terminal took a drone.

1. Critical Alerts
​

  • Lebanon ceasefire collapses on arrival; Hezbollah shreds armor. The US announced a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire; Hezbollah's chief categorically rejected it, demanding it cover all of Lebanon and a full IDF withdrawal (zerohedge). On June 4 Hezbollah hit roughly six Merkava tanks around Beaufort Castle with ATGMs and thermal FPV drones (MenchOsint), killing Israeli Captain Eitan Shmuel Lamberg (MenchOsint). Iran says it's prepared to strike Israel if the army moves on Beirut. HIGH (zerohedge, MenchOsint, Lord Bebo, dana, war_noir, jonelmer).
  • Oman terminal struck; Gulf oil infrastructure burning. Oman's main terminal Mina al Fahal took a drone strike, suspending loadings with supertankers anchored offshore (HormuzLetter); a UAE LNG terminal is still on fire, and Kuwait's airport Terminal 1 was hit by a Shahed-136, one dead, 60+ injured (Lord Bebo). HIGH(HormuzLetter, JustDario, Lord Bebo, zerohedge).

2. Core Themes
​

Lebanon: ceasefire rejected, six Merkavas down around Beaufort Castle
​

Iran-US: Trump "honored to meet the Ayatollah," frozen funds in final stages
​

Oil: Hormuz at ~23 ships/day, SPR -58M barrels, big oil flags $150
​

no1sdailydigest.substack.com

Daily digest: 2026-06-05

Get up to speed
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K

ktrapper

Veteran Member
asiatimes.com

Oil 'powder keg': Trump says Hormuz blockade may last all summer - Asia Times

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday tried to project optimism about reaching a deal to end the illegal war he started against Iran, even while
asiatimes.com asiatimes.com


MIDDLE EAST

Oil ‘powder keg’: Trump says Hormuz blockade may last all summer​

His ability to talk oil prices down is coming up against hard supply constraints, experts warn
bc28bb6054a1c6411714bff6b61ec7cb2434ac8459092393b65e8b7bcfa51dab
By BRAD REEDJUNE 4, 2026
ac20118f019a58f0cc57179053ab58fd.jpeg
Image: AOL.com

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday tried to project optimism about reaching a deal to end the illegal war he started against Iran, even while acknowledging the crisis could last for several more months.
In an interview with The New York Post, Trump was asked whether the current blockade of Iran would last until Labor Day, which falls on September 7 this year.


“I don’t know,” Trump said. “I mean, I think it could be, but I think it’s unlikely.” He added, “I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly.”

The president for the last several months has managed to keep oil prices from spiking to disastrous levels by dropping hints that his illegal war will soon be over, even though it has continued with no end in sight.


And while the Trump administration has insisted that its ceasefire deal is still in effect, CNN reported on Wednesday that Iran launched attacks against US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain after US forces fired a Hellfire missile at a Botswana-flagged oil tanker that was heading toward an Iranian port.


Iran also launched drone and missile strikes at Kuwait’s international airport, killing one person and leaving dozens injured, according to Al Jazeera.

Oil industry expert Patrick De Haan on Tuesday warned that the price of oil will soon shoot back up if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed because US petroleum supplies, which have been drained at a rapid pace since the start of the war, are about to hit their lowest level in over two decades.

“US distillate inventories will likely fall under 100 million barrels for the first time in over 20 years, exacerbated by high exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” De Hann wrote in a social media post. “This is a powder keg waiting to go off if a deal to reopen the strait doesn’t happen soon.”

In an analysis published Wednesday, The American Prospect’s Ryan Cooper similarly warned that the tricks used by nations around the world to keep a lid on oil prices, such as releasing petroleum reserves, would soon be ineffective thanks to hard supply constraints.

“As storages dwindle and run out, the only way to match demand to supply will be for the price to rise high enough to destroy something like 10 to 20% of global oil consumption,” Cooper wrote. “And because a great deal of oil demand is obligatory and therefore not very price-sensitive, that price will likely be north of $150 per barrel.”


This would lead to not just an explosion in gasoline and diesel fuel prices, Cooper continued, but a “corresponding price hike for anything that needs to be transported, or involved in plastic in some way, which is to say basically everything.”
 
K

ktrapper

Veteran Member
oilprice.com

IAEA Warns Iran Nuclear Risk Has Increased | OilPrice.com

The possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon is now higher than it was before the United States and Israel first attacked the country in February, the International Atomic Energy Agency has concluded in a report
oilprice.com oilprice.com

IAEA Warns Iran Nuclear Risk Has Increased​

By Irina Slav - Jun 04, 2026, 5:00 PM CDT
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency warns that Iran’s ability to eventually produce a nuclear weapon may be greater than before the U.S. and Israeli strikes.
  • IAEA: inspectors can no longer verify the status of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
  • Iran suspended IAEA inspections following the attacks on its nuclear facilities, leaving uncertainty over the location and condition of nuclear material that was previously under international monitoring.
The possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon is now higher than it was before the United States and Israel first attacked the country in February, the International Atomic Energy Agency has concluded in a report. The conclusion suggests the war has so far resulted in the opposite of what President Trump set out to do, namely, prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Bloomberg cited the report, which has restricted access, saying that in it, the IAEA had warned its member states that Iran already has a large stockpile of enriched uranium that is close to weapon-grade, and it can continue the enrichment to achieve weapon-grade nuclear material. The agency pointed out that this stockpile was subject to regular inspections by the IAEA, but Iran suspended these inspections following Israel’s and the U.S. strikes last June.
As a result, the IAEA “can’t draw any conclusion regarding this nuclear material,” and “This gives rise to a proliferation concern as this nuclear material, which the agency was not able to verify, includes a large amount of high- enriched uranium.”
In an official response to the IAEA report, the White House said, “Suggesting that Iran can more capably produce a nuclear weapon with no functioning nuclear enrichment facilities or military defenses is an indescribably stupid analysis by Bloomberg, which we would have shared had they reached out to us for comment,” as quoted by the New York Post.
Related: Dangote Breaks Ground on 700,000-Bpd Second Crude Processing Unit
In June 2025, Israel and the United States bombed Iranian targets, with the U.S. specifically reporting “obliterating” the country’s nuclear facilities. The U.S. bombed three of Iran’s nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and warned the Islamic Republic that retaliation against U.S. troops in the region or any other retaliation would be the worst mistake it could make. The obliteration of these facilities, however, appears to have been incomplete based on both the IAEA’s report and the very fact that the U.S. launched a war against Iran, citing its nuclear capabilities as the casus belli months after that.
That war has upended energy markets, causing unprecedented supply disruptions in oil and gas. As for peace, that still seems a long way away, even though oil traders appear to be leaning towards strong optimism, even as the exchange of missile strikes continues. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, any peace deal that does not include its involvement as verifier of Iran’s commitment to not developing a nuclear weapon would be a bad deal, further complicating the situation for the United States.
“We are not a party to this negotiation. We participated until the last round which ended in February,” the director general of the IAEA, Rafael Mariano Grossi, told Al Jazeera in an interview on Tuesday, as cited by Bloomberg again. “Something that is not verifiable will lead to a bad agreement.”
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said this week that Iran had “agreed” not to develop nuclear weapons, but added that “they can change their mind” in the latest of a series of conflicting and not infrequently confusing messages about the war, that in the early weeks included several declarations of victory.
“I did have to say we have to do something about Iran, because regardless of how well we’re doing [economically] we can’t let them have a nuclear weapon,” the U.S. president told the New York Post in a podcast quoted by CNBC. “They’ve already agreed they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,” Donald Trump added. “I mean, now they can change their mind, but that was one of the things they’ve had to agree, they’ve agreed to that. That was the big thing,” he also said.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
 
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