WAR Iran/ US/mideast war thread - 2/28/26 Open Hostilities (Thread for Off Topic discussion started, see post #13,751, page 344)

jward

passin' thru
Gunther Eagleman™
@GuntherEagleman
40m

BREAKING: President Trump Flexes maximum pressure on Iran, strikes hit IRGC targets after they downed a U.S. drone, while Tehran plays games in the Strait of Hormuz!

While the radical Iranian regime continues its aggression, downing American drones, firing ballistic missiles at our bases in Kuwait, and trying to choke the Strait of Hormuz with illegal "protection fees" President Trump is playing it smart, tough, and patient.

Trump posted overnight: “Iran really wants to make a deal and it would be good, a good one for the USA. Just sit back and relax. It will all work out well in the end, it always does.”

He’s sent them revised terms with much tougher language on their nuclear program, no developing AND no purchasing nukes, plus demands they immediately open the Strait of Hormuz. Former Deputy National Security Advisors are backing this approach.

This is what real leadership looks like. Maximum pressure on the economic front, military responses when needed, and zero rush to sign a bad deal. Trump has made it crystal clear: No nuclear weapons, period. No deadlines. America First.

The Iranians are stalling, playing for time, and hoping the midterms will tie Trump’s hands. But as our military, especially the Navy, expertly escorts ships through the Strait, boards suspicious vessels, and counters their piracy, Iran is feeling the pain.

The cease-fire is barely holding because Iran keeps violating it. We have every justification to go harder, but Trump is showing the grace and strength of a true commander-in-chief.

Unlike the weak, appeasement-focused approach we saw in previous years, Trump is forcing Iran to the table on American terms.

Proud of our troops. Proud of this President.

Iran only respects strength, and they’re getting it now.
rt 6m
View: https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/2061477347191030136?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
gCaptain
@gCaptain
1h

For months, shipping groups and U.S. officials have warned that mines—not diplomacy—may be the biggest obstacle to restoring confidence in the Strait of Hormuz.

Now Oman’s Maritime Security Centre has issued a navigation warning after a floating object suspected to be a mine was reported near the Strait.

No confirmation yet that the object is a mine. But it's exactly the type of hazard shipping has been warning about since April.
View: https://twitter.com/gCaptain/status/2061461879856464302?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
@shanaka86
·
39m
Iran just vowed to completely close the Strait of Hormuz.

It has been effectively shut for months.

Oil spiked anyway, and that single contradiction is the whole story.

Traffic through Hormuz is running at a few percent of normal. The waterway that once carried a fifth of the world’s oil has been choked since the spring. So when Tehran threatens to shut it and crude climbs back above ninety dollars, the market is not pricing a new supply cut. There is almost nothing left to cut. It is pricing the death of a deal.

This exact sequence already ran in April. Israel hit Lebanon hours after the ceasefire. Iran declared the truce covered every front and reached for the strait. Today Israel is hitting Lebanon again, and Iran has reached for the same lever, in the same words, for the same reason.

Iran has one lever left. The nuclear sites were bombed. The leadership was decapitated. The conventional navy, by Washington’s own account, is on the seabed. The chokepoint is the only thing Tehran still controls that moves the oil price, and the oil price is the only thing that moves Washington.

Crude had fallen to a six-week low on hope a deal was near. The threat cut no supply. It withdrew the hope. The market keeps pricing the signature. Ships clear at the speed of the slowest gate, and the slowest gate just got slower.

Iran has vowed to fully close this strait in every crisis since 2019, and every time the words stayed words, because a real prolonged closure bleeds Tehran faster than it bleeds the West, and its own exports are already down by nearly half. Watch the water, not the wire. If Revolutionary Guard mining and seizures intensify over the next seventy-two hours and hold, this is real. If the blackout reverses in days with no Israeli withdrawal, it was leverage sold to you as catastrophe.

The point the headline buries: a strait does not reopen because a deal is close. It reopens when a dozen separate gates clear at once, and one of them is held by an actor that has now, twice in two months, slammed it shut the moment Lebanon burns.


Paying a sovereign for passage was supposed to be behind us. It keeps proving it is in front of us.








Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
59m

Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, senior military command, just told residents of northern Israel to evacuate

Major General Ali Abdullah: if Israel bombs Beirut, residents of northern settlements should leave "if they do not want to be harmed."

Every single thing that happened today was a step toward this statement.

Is this a bluff... or a countdown?

Source: @GeoPWatch
 

jward

passin' thru
Spencer Faragasso
@SFnuclear
7m

NEW Fordow activity identified:

We just published a May 22 image of Fordow showing that the Iranians added very precise piles of dirt/rock chicane barriers along the roads leading to the backfilled tunnel entrances. This is not the result of a landslide, but a deliberate effort by Iran to make ground access to the backfilled tunnel entrances more difficult. This action raises significant questions as to why Iran wants to slow ground vehicle access. Are they worried about an effort by the US/Israel to access the tunnels?

We also saw that by May 26, the chicane barriers near the Easternmost tunnel portal appear to have been removed, however we need higher resolution imagery to definitely confirm that. We will continue to monitor the site for any new developments.
View: https://twitter.com/SFnuclear/status/2061489499658723596?s=20
 

jward

passin' thru
Aleph א reposted
Garrett Haake
@GarrettHaake
44m

New: President Trump tells me he's not heard from Iran on reports they're suspending talks w/ the US, but if true, its ok: "I think we've been talking too much if you want to know the truth. I think going silent would be very good, and that could be that could be for a long time."

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
25m

Full exchange on Trump's "we've been talking too much"

Reporter: “Iran says they’re suspending negotiations…”

Trump:

“I haven’t heard that. I don’t know if that’s true.

If it is, it’ll be a good thing. We’ve been talking a lot, perhaps too much.

But it doesn’t mean we’re going to start dropping bombs.

We’ll go silent for a while… it could be a long time.
We’ll just keep the blockade. They’re losing a fortune over there.”

Source: NBC
 

somewherepress

Has No Life - Lives on TB
First Squawk

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TRUMP (TRUTH SOCIAL): I HAD A HIGHLY FRUITFUL DISCUSSION WITH PRIME MINISTER BIBI NETANYAHU, OF ISRAEL, AND THERE WILL BE NO SOLDIERS HEADING TO BEIRUT, AND ANY FORCES THAT WERE EN ROUTE, HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECALLED. LIKEWISE, THROUGH SENIOR ENVOYS, I HAD A VERY FAVORABLE CONVERSATION WITH HEZBOLLAH, AND THEY CONSENTED THAT ALL HOSTILITIES WILL CEASE — THAT ISRAEL WILL NOT STRIKE THEM, AND THEY WILL NOT STRIKE ISRAEL. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP


12:33 PM · Jun 1, 2026
 

auxman

Deus vult...

I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel. President DONALD J. TRUMP
 
⚡Criminal Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir:

Mr. Prime Minister,

You said that a strong prime minister tells the President of the United States—'yes' when possible, and 'no'—when necessary.

This is the time to tell our friend, President Trump—'no'.

Now is the time to do what is required and necessary to strike Hezbollah, to unleash the hands of our fighters, and to restore security to the north.


===
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According to Axios, Trump told Netanyahu on a call Monday: "You're ****ing crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this."

We've seen this before. Right before the Israeli-American strikes in summer 2025, the media manufactured similar stories about Trump and Bibi falling out. This could equally be messaging aimed at the American audience increasingly frustrated with Israeli influence in Washington.


1780352318188.png

Trump again posted that he asked Netanyahu not to strike Beirut.

For those who didn't have his attention on that matter the first time? ‍♂️



=====
note: aerial bombings are not soldiers.

===
.
 

somewherepress

Has No Life - Lives on TB
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2061579332967903590






Mario Nawfal


@MarioNawfal
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BREAKING: Sirens are going off in northern Israel near the Lebanon border, with warnings of possible incoming rocket fire from Hezbollah. Early and unconfirmed reports say interceptors were activated and around 17 rockets may have been launched. If it holds, it is Hezbollah firing back after Israeli strikes on the south. Trump said that all shooting would stop. Both sides are testing that already. Source: TOI / Geopolitics Watch on TG
 

somewherepress

Has No Life - Lives on TB
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2061579332967903590

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
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BREAKING: Sirens are going off in northern Israel near the Lebanon border, with warnings of possible incoming rocket fire from Hezbollah. Early and unconfirmed reports say interceptors were activated and around 17 rockets may have been launched. If it holds, it is Hezbollah firing back after Israeli strikes on the south. Trump said that all shooting would stop. Both sides are testing that already. Source: TOI / Geopolitics Watch on TG
World Source News

@Worldsource24



BREAKING: Another large Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel.


Image

5:37 PM · Jun 1, 2026
 

Hognutz

TB Fanatic
RT 24:03

BREAKING: TRUMP FED UP WITH ISRAEL, IRAN HOLDS FIRM, ISRAEL WORRIED – w/ Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski​


===
.
Seeing this posted several places…..



View: https://twitter.com/bricsinfo/status/2061575922046660807?s=61



JUST IN: Axios sources say President Trump was "pissed" during call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and told him off:

"You're f*cking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this."

"What the f*ck are you doing?"
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
20m

U.S. Army Central has published a statement announcing the death of an American Soldier during a “military training accident” with the British Army at Erbil Air Base in Northern Iraq on May 31, 2026.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2061594046733095233?s=20


Though likely a coincidence, both of the servicemember deaths announced today by the U.S. and British Army during a “training exercise” at Erbil Air Base in Northern Iraq, occurred on the same day reports emerged of Iranian attacks against American-backed Kurdish paramilitary forces in Northern Iraq.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2061595903236943928?s=20
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.......

June 2, 2026 at 12:42 AM GMT-7

Kazakhstan Offers to Store Iran’s Near-Weapons-Grade Uranium Amid US-Iran Peace Talks

Kazakhstan has expressed readiness to hold Iran's stockpile of uranium just below weapons-grade, potentially clearing a major hurdle in the faltering US-Iran peace negotiations. The offer was disclosed by a Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Monday.

Diplomatic Context and Escalation This development emerges as Washington and Tehran continue military exchanges, and after Iran announced it had halted indirect talks with the US, adding further tension to already delicate discussions. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted that Kazakhstan could serve as a host for the existing material, and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev backed the concept during a recent meeting with Grossi in Astana, casting Kazakhstan as a possible neutral guardian of the stockpile.

Yerlan Zhetybayev, speaking for Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry, stated at a Monday briefing that the nation is indicating its willingness to offer technical assistance in good faith, contingent on securing the required international accords among all involved parties.

Kazakhstan is frequently held up as an example of nuclear disarmament. Following the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991, the country inherited one of the globe's largest nuclear arsenals—approximately 1,400 warheads—and voluntarily eliminated it by 1995, shutting down the Soviet Semipalatinsk test site and forswearing nuclear arms entirely.

Negotiation Sticking Points Kazakhstan's proposition arrives as talks between the US and Iran encounter persistent obstacles over core matters, such as Iran's uranium reserves and reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz. Recent US proposals reportedly encompass a 60-day ceasefire framework, discussions about restoring access to the key waterway—which carried one-fifth of global oil traffic before the conflict—and a broader resumption of negotiations aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.

Intelligence assessments indicate Iran possesses roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, well below the 90% level needed for weaponization, yet enough, if enriched further, to create 10 to 12 nuclear devices. This material is thought to be situated under the debris of Iran's nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, which suffered extensive damage in earlier attacks. The full extent of harm to the subterranean sections of those facilities—where enriched uranium is kept—remains a matter of dispute.

Satellite images released after the strikes revealed limited surface damage at Natanz, and the IAEA has stated it cannot confirm the state of the locations. Grossi remarked that the relocation concept could be agreeable to both parties, depending on negotiation outcomes, adding that a secure storage site is available.

Kazakhstan's Nuclear Credentials Kazakhstan already houses the IAEA Low Enriched Uranium Bank, founded in 2018 in partnership with the UN nuclear agency. Situated at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Oskemen in the country's northeast, it began operations in October 2019. The facility was intended to guarantee fuel supplies for civilian nuclear energy programs and to curb proliferation dangers. As part of the 2015 nuclear accord, known as the JCPOA, Iran sent roughly 11 tonnes of low-enriched uranium to Russia in return for natural uranium.

US President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of that pact during his first term and has categorically excluded Russia or China from serving as custodians under any future agreement. Trump posted on Truth Social last week that Iran's highly enriched uranium should be surrendered to Washington, destroyed at its current location, or moved to another acceptable site with the Atomic Energy Commission.

Ebrahim Azizi, head of Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, has dismissed the notion of transferring enriched uranium to another nation, asserting that Tehran will not relocate its stockpile abroad and insisting that Iran's nuclear program is not open to negotiation.
 

TFergeson

In Timeout

Daily digest: 2026-06-02​

Get up to speed​

No1
Jun 02, 2026

TL;DR: today vs. yesterday​

The April script ran again, faster: Israel hit southern Lebanon, Iran declared the ceasefire void "on all fronts," suspended US talks, and reached for the chokepoints — this time naming Bab el-Mandeb alongside Hormuz. Oil jumped ~8%. Trump ran the full arc in one afternoon ("I couldn't care less" → "talks back on at a rapid pace" → "no troops to Beirut"), the Lebanon truce he announced lasted about fifteen minutes

1. Critical Alerts​

  • Iran suspends all US talks, vows to close BOTH Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb; oil +~8%. Tehran cited Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a ceasefire breach "on all fronts" and, via Tasnim/IRGC, declared intent to fully blockade Hormuz and activate Bab el-Mandeb through the "Axis of Resistance." Crude spiked toward the mid-$90s per Kobeissi and The Hormuz Letter. HIGHIranObserver, BRICS, Mark4XX/Tasnim quote, Araghchi.
  • IRGC Navy strikes container ship MSC Sariska V with an anti-ship cruise missile (~40nm off Iraq's Umm Qasr), framed as retaliation for a US strike on the Iranian tanker "Lian Star." Two confirmed impacts. HIGHwar_noir, MenchOsint, UKMTO via zerohedge, ILRedAlert.
  • Trump–Netanyahu blowup; the Lebanon "ceasefire" collapses within minutes. Axios quotes Trump telling Bibi "You're f**king crazy… I'm saving your ass." Trump announced Hezbollah and Israel agreed to stop; sirens sounded in northern Israel and IDF resumed strikes on Tyre-area villages almost immediately. HIGHclashreport/Axios, Insider Paper, Netanyahu's own statement, manniefabian.
  • Iran threatens to strike Israel directly if Beirut is bombed — a new declared rule of engagement, voiced by parliament speaker Ghalibaf and Khatam al-Anbiya central command. HIGHAMK Mapping, Kobeissi/Ghalibaf, AJ English, sahouraxo.

Iran-US: the two-chokepoint doctrine goes public; "deal" reduced to a Zeno paradox​

  • The novelty vs. recent days: Iran didn't just re-threaten Hormuz — it named Bab el-Mandeb as a second front via the Houthis, turning a single chokepoint standoff into a declared multi-gate weaponization. shanaka86 notes Bab el-Mandeb carries ~4 mbpd toward Suez (5-6% of seaborne crude); the Iranian state simultaneously silenced its own hardliner (Ghazanfari) and reaffirmed Mojtaba Khamenei's chain of command.
  • Somalia reportedly banned all Israeli ships from Bab el-Mandeb (IRGC INTEL, single-source).
  • The contradiction traders keep missing: Hormuz has been effectively choked for ~94 days, so the threat "cut no supply — it withdrew the hope" of a deal (shanaka86). Oil had fallen to a six-week low on ceasefire optimism; the suspension reversed it.
  • Trump's whiplash in one session: "I really don't care, I couldn't care less" and "we'll keep the blockade" (Kobeissi) → "talks continuing at a rapid pace" (zerohedge) → MOU "completed over the next week," strait reopened "next week" (Kobeissi). The market read each headline literally. HIGH.
  • Japan carve-out: Iran's president told PM Takaichi Japanese ships get "greater ease" through Hormuz (Polymarket, zerohedge). MEDIUM.
  • Earlier US strikes on Iranian radar/telecom sites and a downed MQ-1 drone preceded the walkout; IRGC also claimed a ballistic strike on a US base in Kuwait (intercepted, no casualties per CENTCOM). HIGHspectatorindex, Lord Bebo/Kuwait, MenchOsint MQ-1.

Lebanon: the empty-castle trophy turns lethal; "ceasefire" lasts 15 minutes​

  • Hezbollah killed three Israeli soldiers (Givati brigade) with an FPV drone swarm at Beaufort Castle and logged 41 operations in a day — Merkava tank hits, an Iron Dome launcher struck (one of 18 targeted this war). ejmalrai: holding the exposed hilltop "may prove far more dangerous than capturing it." HIGHMenchOsint, jonelmer, war_noir.
  • After Trump's truce post, IDF struck Yater, Sediqin, al-Bazuriya and other Tyre-district villages; heavy bombardment near Jabal Amel Hospital in Tyre with reported casualties (Lord Bebo, zerohedge/Kan). Lebanon's reported toll cited at 3,324+ killed (mhdksafa, single-source).
  • The gap between claim and ground truth: Trump said Bibi recalled troops headed to Beirut; ejmalrai points out that after 88 days Israel holds ~7km inside Lebanon and Beirut is 100+ km away. Netanyahu publicly contradicted the de-escalation hours later.

3. Weak Signals​

  • US + UK soldier died at Erbil Air Base (May 31) in a "training accident" — same day Iran says it hit Kurdish separatist HQ in Iraq (MenchOsint, AryJeay). MEDIUM..
  • Ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson claims Iran acquired a nuke via a third country and is "willing to demonstrate it" — unverified, flagging only because it's circulating (blindpig_1966). LOW.

 

vector7

Dot Collector
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT): “The strait is closed because of our decision to invade Iran. This is a consequence of our military action… How are we going to get it reopened? Will you drive a bargain that is so tough and so hard that the strait remains closed? So, how are we going to get it open?”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “That is a predicate to anything else happening. The Straits have to be reopened… If Iran wants to be able to move its oil again through the Strait, they will have to reopen the Straits.” 
“If they refuse to do so, then we have other options available to us, but we would prefer to negotiate the reopening of this.”
RT 2min
View: https://twitter.com/RedWavePress/status/2061842848685711648
 

Sacajawea

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