danielboon
TB Fanatic
Please post articles here related to rumors or when actual war breaks out in the middle east thanks
WAR Iran/ US/mideast war thread - 2/28/26 Open Hostilities (Thread for Off Topic discussion started, see post #13,751, page 344)
- Thread starter danielboon
- Start date
SouthernBreeze
TB Fanatic
Thanks for starting this thread, DB. If war does break out, I would hate for it to get bogged down in the old thread.
coalcracker
Veteran Member
Gold and Silver are rising in a way that might indicate something is about to kick off. How often have we seen gold trading plus $180 in a single session? Just musing...
Thank you, danielboone!
The previous (7 year old!) thread has been locked.
Summerthyme
The previous (7 year old!) thread has been locked.
Summerthyme
I’ll start.
A huge Bluff? Strangling Blockade? SF assassin teams? Israel hits Hezzies in Lebanon first? Crushing air-to-ground blitzkrieg war? Rumors of all these; each almost meaningless
A huge Bluff? Strangling Blockade? SF assassin teams? Israel hits Hezzies in Lebanon first? Crushing air-to-ground blitzkrieg war? Rumors of all these; each almost meaningless
Depending upon the audience you're trying to convince and their memory....
Reasonable Rascal
Has No Life - Lives on TB
bracketquant
Veteran Member
Nah, doomers need rumors of doom, if there is no actual doom to be had. This isn't the rainbows, flowers and unicorns place.
Rucus Sunday
Veteran Member
That's 49 in dog years!
Hummm............Just something to ponder, the RSAF has 211 F-15 C/D/E(SR)/EX(SA) Eagles on strength along with 71 Eurofighter Typhoons, 81 Tornadoes and 13 air tankers for those assets (never mind the DF-3 IRBMs and DF-21 MRBMs they got from the PRC/CCP).
Posted for fair use.......
www.businesstimes.com.sg
Published Wed, Jan 28, 2026 · 06:53 AM
SAUDI Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran, state news agency SPA reported on Tuesday.
In a phone call with Pezeshkian, the crown prince affirmed his country’s support for any “efforts that would resolve differences through dialogue” to bolster security and stability in the region.
Earlier, Iranian media reported that Pezeshkian told bin Salman that Tehran welcomes any process, within the framework of international law, that prevents war.
The statement by the Saudi de facto ruler follows a similar statement by the United Arab Emirates that it would not allow any military action against Iran using its airspace or territorial waters.
Uncertainty over the possibility of military action in Iran has lingered after US President Donald Trump said last week that an “armada” was heading toward the country but that he hoped he would not have to use it.
Trump’s warnings to Tehran were against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear programme, but the countrywide demonstrations have since abated.
A US aircraft carrier and supporting warships have arrived in the Middle East, two US officials told Reuters on Monday, expanding Trump’s capabilities to defend US forces, or potentially take military action against Iran.
Iran has been embroiled in protests during which rights groups say security forces killed thousands of people, including bystanders.
The rights groups describe the unrest as the biggest crackdown since Shi’ite Muslim clerics took power in the 1979 revolution. Iranian authorities have blamed the unrest and deaths on “terrorists and rioters” backed by exiled opponents. REUTERS
Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.
Posted for fair use.......
Saudi Arabia won’t allow airspace to be used for military action against Iran, crown prince says
A US aircraft carrier and supporting warships have arrived in the Middle East Read more at The Business Times.
Saudi Arabia won’t allow airspace to be used for military action against Iran, crown prince says
A US aircraft carrier and supporting warships have arrived in the Middle EastPublished Wed, Jan 28, 2026 · 06:53 AM
SAUDI Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran, state news agency SPA reported on Tuesday.
In a phone call with Pezeshkian, the crown prince affirmed his country’s support for any “efforts that would resolve differences through dialogue” to bolster security and stability in the region.
Earlier, Iranian media reported that Pezeshkian told bin Salman that Tehran welcomes any process, within the framework of international law, that prevents war.
The statement by the Saudi de facto ruler follows a similar statement by the United Arab Emirates that it would not allow any military action against Iran using its airspace or territorial waters.
Uncertainty over the possibility of military action in Iran has lingered after US President Donald Trump said last week that an “armada” was heading toward the country but that he hoped he would not have to use it.
Trump’s warnings to Tehran were against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear programme, but the countrywide demonstrations have since abated.
A US aircraft carrier and supporting warships have arrived in the Middle East, two US officials told Reuters on Monday, expanding Trump’s capabilities to defend US forces, or potentially take military action against Iran.
Iran has been embroiled in protests during which rights groups say security forces killed thousands of people, including bystanders.
The rights groups describe the unrest as the biggest crackdown since Shi’ite Muslim clerics took power in the 1979 revolution. Iranian authorities have blamed the unrest and deaths on “terrorists and rioters” backed by exiled opponents. REUTERS
Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free.
Posted for fair use.......
www.japantimes.co.jp
WORLD / Politics
AFP-JIJI
Jan 28, 2026
Paris –
Iran's president on Tuesday warned U.S. "threats" against the Islamic republic would only cause instability, as a U.S. naval strike group led by an aircraft carrier took up position in Middle Eastern waters.
Washington has not ruled out military intervention against Tehran over its crackdown on protests — which rights groups say left thousands of people dead — and President Donald Trump has dispatched the USS Abraham Lincoln to the area "just in case".
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hit out at U.S. "threats" in a call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saying they were "aimed at disrupting the security of the region and will achieve nothing other than instability."
The U.S. also maintains several bases in the Middle East, prompting a Revolutionary Guards commander to issue a warning to Iran's neighbors on Tuesday.
"Neighboring countries are our friends, but if their soil, sky, or waters are used against Iran, they will be considered hostile," Mohammad Akbarzadeh, political deputy of the IRGC naval forces, was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said the crown prince had promised Pezeshkian that Riyadh "will not allow its airspace or its territory to be used for any military actions" against Iran.
Since Iran launched its crackdown on protests earlier this month, accompanied by a blanket internet blackout, Trump has given mixed signals on intervention, which some opponents of the clerical leadership see as the only way to bring about change.
"We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela," Trump told the Axios news site on Monday, weeks after the U.S. military captured the Latin American nation's president, Nicolas Maduro.
But he added: "They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk."
Tehran has previously said a channel of communication is open between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, despite the lack of diplomatic relations between the two foes.
Axios said Trump declined to discuss the options presented to him by his national security team, or which he prefers.
Analysts say options include strikes on military facilities or targeted attacks against the leadership under supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a bid to bring down the system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution that ousted the shah.
The New York Times reported that Trump has received multiple U.S. intelligence reports "indicating that the Iranian government's position is weakening," and that its hold on power "is at its weakest point" since the shah's fall.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham told the paper he had spoken with Trump in recent days about Iran and that "the goal is to end the regime."
"They may stop killing them today, but if they're in charge next month, they'll kill them then," he said of the authorities' treatment of protesters.
The U.S. briefly joined Israel's 12-day war against Iran in June with strikes on nuclear sites.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that "Trump will decide what he decides; the State of Israel will decide what it decides."
But, he added, if Iran attacked Israel, "we will respond with a force that Iran has never seen."
Iranian officials have in recent days appeared wary of pouring oil on the fire.
But the Hamshahri conservative newspaper on Tuesday quoted Revolutionary Guards spokesman Mohammad Ali Naini as saying that "if their aircraft carrier made a mistake and entered Iranian territorial waters, it would be targeted" — only to later retract the report and apologize to Naini.
The conservative Javan newspaper said Iran was "ready for a major response" and would seize the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key transit hub for energy supplies.
Meanwhile, an anti-U.S. billboard has appeared in Tehran that appears to show an American aircraft carrier being destroyed.
Rights groups have described the crackdown as the deadliest ever against protests in Iran, and warn that compiling tolls has been complicated by an almost three-week internet blackout they say is aimed at masking the extent of the repression.
Monitor Netblocks on Tuesday reported intermittent connectivity but warned internet access remained "heavily filtered on a whitelist basis" and users would still need workarounds.
In an updated toll, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it had confirmed that 6,126 people had been killed, including 5,777 protesters, 86 minors, 214 members of the security forces and 49 bystanders.
But the group, which has an extensive network of sources inside Iran and has tracked the protests on a daily basis since they began, added it was still investigating another 17,091 possible fatalities.
At least 41,880 people have been arrested, it said.
"Security agencies continue to pursue an approach centered on mass arrests, intimidation, and control of the narrative," HRANA said.
Over the weekend, Persian-language TV channel Iran International, which is based outside Iran, said more than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces between January 8 and 9, citing reports, documents and sources.
It was not immediately possible to verify the report.
Iran warns against 'instability' after U.S. strike group arrives
The U.S. also maintains several bases in the Middle East, prompting a Revolutionary Guards commander to issue a warning to Iran's neighbors.
www.japantimes.co.jp
WORLD / Politics
Iran warns against 'instability' after U.S. strike group arrives
By Stuart WilliamsAFP-JIJI
Jan 28, 2026
Paris –
Iran's president on Tuesday warned U.S. "threats" against the Islamic republic would only cause instability, as a U.S. naval strike group led by an aircraft carrier took up position in Middle Eastern waters.
Washington has not ruled out military intervention against Tehran over its crackdown on protests — which rights groups say left thousands of people dead — and President Donald Trump has dispatched the USS Abraham Lincoln to the area "just in case".
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hit out at U.S. "threats" in a call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saying they were "aimed at disrupting the security of the region and will achieve nothing other than instability."
The U.S. also maintains several bases in the Middle East, prompting a Revolutionary Guards commander to issue a warning to Iran's neighbors on Tuesday.
"Neighboring countries are our friends, but if their soil, sky, or waters are used against Iran, they will be considered hostile," Mohammad Akbarzadeh, political deputy of the IRGC naval forces, was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.
Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry said the crown prince had promised Pezeshkian that Riyadh "will not allow its airspace or its territory to be used for any military actions" against Iran.
Since Iran launched its crackdown on protests earlier this month, accompanied by a blanket internet blackout, Trump has given mixed signals on intervention, which some opponents of the clerical leadership see as the only way to bring about change.
"We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela," Trump told the Axios news site on Monday, weeks after the U.S. military captured the Latin American nation's president, Nicolas Maduro.
But he added: "They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk."
Tehran has previously said a channel of communication is open between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, despite the lack of diplomatic relations between the two foes.
Axios said Trump declined to discuss the options presented to him by his national security team, or which he prefers.
Analysts say options include strikes on military facilities or targeted attacks against the leadership under supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a bid to bring down the system that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution that ousted the shah.
'Weakest point'
The New York Times reported that Trump has received multiple U.S. intelligence reports "indicating that the Iranian government's position is weakening," and that its hold on power "is at its weakest point" since the shah's fall.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham told the paper he had spoken with Trump in recent days about Iran and that "the goal is to end the regime."
"They may stop killing them today, but if they're in charge next month, they'll kill them then," he said of the authorities' treatment of protesters.
The U.S. briefly joined Israel's 12-day war against Iran in June with strikes on nuclear sites.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that "Trump will decide what he decides; the State of Israel will decide what it decides."
But, he added, if Iran attacked Israel, "we will respond with a force that Iran has never seen."
Iranian officials have in recent days appeared wary of pouring oil on the fire.
But the Hamshahri conservative newspaper on Tuesday quoted Revolutionary Guards spokesman Mohammad Ali Naini as saying that "if their aircraft carrier made a mistake and entered Iranian territorial waters, it would be targeted" — only to later retract the report and apologize to Naini.
The conservative Javan newspaper said Iran was "ready for a major response" and would seize the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key transit hub for energy supplies.
Meanwhile, an anti-U.S. billboard has appeared in Tehran that appears to show an American aircraft carrier being destroyed.
'Mass arrests, intimidation'
Rights groups have described the crackdown as the deadliest ever against protests in Iran, and warn that compiling tolls has been complicated by an almost three-week internet blackout they say is aimed at masking the extent of the repression.
Monitor Netblocks on Tuesday reported intermittent connectivity but warned internet access remained "heavily filtered on a whitelist basis" and users would still need workarounds.
In an updated toll, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it had confirmed that 6,126 people had been killed, including 5,777 protesters, 86 minors, 214 members of the security forces and 49 bystanders.
But the group, which has an extensive network of sources inside Iran and has tracked the protests on a daily basis since they began, added it was still investigating another 17,091 possible fatalities.
At least 41,880 people have been arrested, it said.
"Security agencies continue to pursue an approach centered on mass arrests, intimidation, and control of the narrative," HRANA said.
Over the weekend, Persian-language TV channel Iran International, which is based outside Iran, said more than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces between January 8 and 9, citing reports, documents and sources.
It was not immediately possible to verify the report.
Posted for fair use......
www.middleeasteye.net
Groups like Hezbollah were degraded for coming to Iran's defence, while Iraqi paramilitaries largely sat out the conflict and escaped unscathed
By Sean Mathews
Published date: 27 January 2026 21:03 GMT | Last update: 3 hours 34 mins ago
Militias aligned with Iran warned the US that they would retaliate against any American attack on the Islamic Republic, as the Trump administration mobilises to limit the fallout of potential strikes.
The warnings recall tensions from 2025, when the US, Israel and Iran engaged in direct conflict, but also underscore the dangers for militia groups aligned with Iran if they decide to engage in a fresh war.
Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq said it was prepared for “total war” if the US attacked Iran.
Abu Hussein al‑Hamidawi, the Iraqi group’s leader, said the “enemies” of the Islamic Republic will face “the bitterest forms of death”, in an explosive statement released on Sunday.
“You will taste every form of deadly suffering, nothing of you will remain in our region, and we will strike terror in your hearts,” the statement read.
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis threatened to restart their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.
The group released a video on Monday showing a vessel cutting through the water before nightfall, and another vessel engulfed in flames. The video was captioned with: “Soon.”
Both threats underscore the risk the US faces as the Trump administration weighs an attack.
Middle East Eye reported on Monday that one option the US is debating is precision strikes on "high-value" Iranian officials and commanders who Washington deems responsible for the deaths of protesters in the Islamic Republic.
Discussions within the administration have been described as “chaotic” because some officials are worried about the ramifications of a strike.
As of mid 2025, the US is believed to have about 40,000 troops stationed across the Middle East.
Around 5,000 troops are stationed in Iraq and Syria at bases that have previously come under attack from Iran-aligned militias. But likely more sensitive for the US would be an attack on a base in Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, or Saudi Arabia, where tens of thousands of US troops are stationed.
Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have lobbied the US against attacking Iran out of fear they could be caught in the crossfire of a new war.
Following speculation over the UAE’s position on an attack, Abu Dhabi released a statement on Monday saying it would not allow its territory or airspace to be used for strikes.
The US has surged fresh military assets into the region. The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has been moved from the South China Sea to the Middle East. It carries F-35 warplanes and F/A-18 jet fighters, in addition to EA-18G Growler electronic-warfare planes. It is also accompanied by guided-missile destroyers.
Open-source flight trackers have also reported that the US has built up a squadron of F-15 warplanes at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The buildup of warplanes in Jordan would give the US options, as the Gulf states resist becoming involved in strikes.
The US faced a similar threat from militias aligned with Iran, when Israel and the Islamic Republic traded blows in October and April 2025, then again in June, when the US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites.
Jordan was the site of the deadliest militia attack on US soldiers. In January 2024, a drone strike killed three US soldiers and wounded more than 40 at a desert outpost on the Hashemite Kingdom’s border with Iraq.
The US blamed Kataib Hezbollah for the strike and, in retaliation, assassinated Abu Baqir al-Saadi, a senior commander in Kataib Hezbollah, the following month.
The New York Times reported on Monday that Joe Kent, the director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, warned Iraq that if Iranian-backed militias were to strike US troops, Washington would retaliate.
Kataib Hezbollah is the most powerful and elite force in a constellation of pro-Iranian Shia paramilitary groups operating in Iraq, dubbed the Popular Mobilisation Forces.
Kataib Hezbollah’s importance to Iran has increased because its main ally next door to Israel, Lebanese Hezbollah, has been severely degraded.
Iran premised its defence against US and Israeli attacks on the Lebanese group, which has been called the world’s largest armed non-state actor, being able to inflict serious damage against Israel.
However, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated by Israel in October 2025, and the group was forced to sign a lopsided ceasefire that enshrined Israel’s ability to attack it. Hezbollah has not retaliated against Israeli strikes even as it is pressured to disarm.
The Lebanese Armed Forces announced at the beginning of this year that it had completed its disarmament of Southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has operated for decades. The group originated in the 1980s out of opposition to Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon.
“We will choose at that time how to act," Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said on Monday, "but we are not neutral."
With the exception of the strike on Jordan, Iraqi militias like Kataib Hezbollah largely sat out the regional war that erupted following the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel.
In response to the attack, Israel unleashed a genocide on Gaza, where over 71,500 people have been killed. But a wider geopolitical reordering of the region also occurred. Iranian ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, was ousted by Islamist rebels in December 2024. Hezbollah’s degradation was also part of that shift.
Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces, Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah have all been described as part of an "axis of resistance" backed by Tehran. But each group has different levels of independence from Iran and important local positions.
For example, the Popular Mobilisation Forces are legally part of the Iraqi state and rely on funds from Baghdad to pay salaries. Over the weekend, Shia political parties associated with the militias nominated former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki as their candidate to return to the top role in Iraq.
Hezbollah is Lebanon’s most popular Shia political party. Yemen’s Houthis follow a Zaydi branch of Shia Islam. While they have obtained arms and training from Iran, they also operate independently.
Of all the groups that have battled with Israel and the US since 7 October 2023, the Houthis may have emerged as the strongest from the conflict. They won praise even among critics in the Arab and Muslim world for their audacious attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, in what they said was solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
The group faced brutal Israeli and later US strikes, but endured them from their heartland in Yemen’s mountainous northwest. In May 2025, the US agreed to a truce with the Houthis, mediated by Oman and spurred by a request from Riyadh ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf.
The Houthis and the US each agreed to stop their attacks on each other, but the group continued to launch missiles at Israel after the ceasefire, even hitting Ben Gurion International Airport, without sparking a US reprisal. If the Houthis were to begin attacking vessels in the Red Sea again, it would likely mark an end to the truce with the US.
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Iran-aligned militias threaten retaliatory strikes, but will they follow through?
Groups like Hezbollah were degraded for coming to Iran's defence, while Iraqi paramilitaries largely sat out the conflict and escaped unscathed
www.middleeasteye.net
Iran-aligned militias threaten retaliatory strikes, but will they follow through?
Groups like Hezbollah were degraded for coming to Iran's defence, while Iraqi paramilitaries largely sat out the conflict and escaped unscathed
By Sean Mathews
Published date: 27 January 2026 21:03 GMT | Last update: 3 hours 34 mins ago
Militias aligned with Iran warned the US that they would retaliate against any American attack on the Islamic Republic, as the Trump administration mobilises to limit the fallout of potential strikes.
The warnings recall tensions from 2025, when the US, Israel and Iran engaged in direct conflict, but also underscore the dangers for militia groups aligned with Iran if they decide to engage in a fresh war.
Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq said it was prepared for “total war” if the US attacked Iran.
Abu Hussein al‑Hamidawi, the Iraqi group’s leader, said the “enemies” of the Islamic Republic will face “the bitterest forms of death”, in an explosive statement released on Sunday.
“You will taste every form of deadly suffering, nothing of you will remain in our region, and we will strike terror in your hearts,” the statement read.
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis threatened to restart their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.
The group released a video on Monday showing a vessel cutting through the water before nightfall, and another vessel engulfed in flames. The video was captioned with: “Soon.”
US bases from Jordan to Gulf
Both threats underscore the risk the US faces as the Trump administration weighs an attack.
Middle East Eye reported on Monday that one option the US is debating is precision strikes on "high-value" Iranian officials and commanders who Washington deems responsible for the deaths of protesters in the Islamic Republic.
Discussions within the administration have been described as “chaotic” because some officials are worried about the ramifications of a strike.
As of mid 2025, the US is believed to have about 40,000 troops stationed across the Middle East.
Around 5,000 troops are stationed in Iraq and Syria at bases that have previously come under attack from Iran-aligned militias. But likely more sensitive for the US would be an attack on a base in Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, or Saudi Arabia, where tens of thousands of US troops are stationed.
Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have lobbied the US against attacking Iran out of fear they could be caught in the crossfire of a new war.
Following speculation over the UAE’s position on an attack, Abu Dhabi released a statement on Monday saying it would not allow its territory or airspace to be used for strikes.
The US has surged fresh military assets into the region. The Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has been moved from the South China Sea to the Middle East. It carries F-35 warplanes and F/A-18 jet fighters, in addition to EA-18G Growler electronic-warfare planes. It is also accompanied by guided-missile destroyers.
Open-source flight trackers have also reported that the US has built up a squadron of F-15 warplanes at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The buildup of warplanes in Jordan would give the US options, as the Gulf states resist becoming involved in strikes.
The US faced a similar threat from militias aligned with Iran, when Israel and the Islamic Republic traded blows in October and April 2025, then again in June, when the US bombed three Iranian nuclear sites.
Jordan was the site of the deadliest militia attack on US soldiers. In January 2024, a drone strike killed three US soldiers and wounded more than 40 at a desert outpost on the Hashemite Kingdom’s border with Iraq.
The US blamed Kataib Hezbollah for the strike and, in retaliation, assassinated Abu Baqir al-Saadi, a senior commander in Kataib Hezbollah, the following month.
The New York Times reported on Monday that Joe Kent, the director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, warned Iraq that if Iranian-backed militias were to strike US troops, Washington would retaliate.
Reordering of region
Kataib Hezbollah is the most powerful and elite force in a constellation of pro-Iranian Shia paramilitary groups operating in Iraq, dubbed the Popular Mobilisation Forces.
Kataib Hezbollah’s importance to Iran has increased because its main ally next door to Israel, Lebanese Hezbollah, has been severely degraded.
Iran premised its defence against US and Israeli attacks on the Lebanese group, which has been called the world’s largest armed non-state actor, being able to inflict serious damage against Israel.
However, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated by Israel in October 2025, and the group was forced to sign a lopsided ceasefire that enshrined Israel’s ability to attack it. Hezbollah has not retaliated against Israeli strikes even as it is pressured to disarm.
The Lebanese Armed Forces announced at the beginning of this year that it had completed its disarmament of Southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah has operated for decades. The group originated in the 1980s out of opposition to Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon.
“We will choose at that time how to act," Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said on Monday, "but we are not neutral."
With the exception of the strike on Jordan, Iraqi militias like Kataib Hezbollah largely sat out the regional war that erupted following the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attack on southern Israel.
In response to the attack, Israel unleashed a genocide on Gaza, where over 71,500 people have been killed. But a wider geopolitical reordering of the region also occurred. Iranian ally, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, was ousted by Islamist rebels in December 2024. Hezbollah’s degradation was also part of that shift.
Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces, Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah have all been described as part of an "axis of resistance" backed by Tehran. But each group has different levels of independence from Iran and important local positions.
For example, the Popular Mobilisation Forces are legally part of the Iraqi state and rely on funds from Baghdad to pay salaries. Over the weekend, Shia political parties associated with the militias nominated former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki as their candidate to return to the top role in Iraq.
Hezbollah is Lebanon’s most popular Shia political party. Yemen’s Houthis follow a Zaydi branch of Shia Islam. While they have obtained arms and training from Iran, they also operate independently.
Of all the groups that have battled with Israel and the US since 7 October 2023, the Houthis may have emerged as the strongest from the conflict. They won praise even among critics in the Arab and Muslim world for their audacious attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, in what they said was solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
The group faced brutal Israeli and later US strikes, but endured them from their heartland in Yemen’s mountainous northwest. In May 2025, the US agreed to a truce with the Houthis, mediated by Oman and spurred by a request from Riyadh ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf.
The Houthis and the US each agreed to stop their attacks on each other, but the group continued to launch missiles at Israel after the ceasefire, even hitting Ben Gurion International Airport, without sparking a US reprisal. If the Houthis were to begin attacking vessels in the Red Sea again, it would likely mark an end to the truce with the US.
Read more
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Inside Yemen
Houthis would target any Israeli presence in Somaliland, leader warns
Posted for fair use.......
By David Daoud | January 27, 2026 | @DavidADaoud
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem gives a speech on January 26, 2026. (Alahed News)
Hezbollah is arguably the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary and central extension, having described itself as such in the 1985 Open Letter, the group’s founding and constitutional document. As a result of this inextricable linkage, based on the belief that Iran’s Supreme Leader is the divinely guided earthly vicar of God, any threat to the Iranian regime’s stability, let alone its existence, is, by its very nature, a threat to Hezbollah as well.
Therefore, Hezbollah has inevitably been casting a wary gaze towards the latest ongoing nationwide protests in Iran that began on December 28, 2025. Unsubstantiated claims suggested that the group may have deployed its own operatives to Iran assist in the regime’s crackdown. However, as far as verifiable information goes, Hezbollah has, thus far, sufficed with offering Tehran verbal support while keeping its forces and arsenal in reserve, perhaps until it senses the regime is under existential threat—either from the protests or the United States or Israel exploiting the nationwide unrest to inflict a mortal blow upon their intractable adversary in Tehran.
Regardless of how Hezbollah ultimately chooses to respond to any threats to the Islamic Republic’s regime, the group and its leadership have made it clear that neutrality is not an option.
Hezbollah claims the United States controls Iranian anti-regime protests
Hezbollah issued its first official statement on the protests the day after the Iranian regime organized a demonstration in Tehran by its supporters that was estimated in the “tens of thousands” on January 12. In the statement, Hezbollah offered its “salutations” to the “millions” of Iranians whom it alleged “took to the streets throughout the Islamic Republic in support of the Islamic system and stability,” claiming they were expressing the people’s “true sentiments by rallying around the Islamic Republic’s leadership” headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Hezbollah’s statement stressed that Iran had freely chosen its form of government during the 1979 Revolution, a decision reinforced since then through “free and fair elections.” However, because, as Hezbollah asserts, this sovereigntist regime’s very existence stymies American hegemonic and exploitative ambitions, the group alleged “the United States” was exploiting protests as part of its “determination to destroy Iran from within and is using theZionist Entity as a tool of criminality, murder, and chaos to bring down the popular Islamic regime.”
Hezbollah’s statement, implicitly designed to cast a pall of illegitimacy over calls for regime change amidst Iran’s nationwide demonstrations, claimed that the Islamic Republic “respects the right of the people to protest and demonstrate peacefully.” However, the group alleged that “footage and statements have proven that America’s and Israel’s agents are embedding themselves in the protests to transform them into chaos and destruction – including burning mosques, governmental and security institutions, and destroying public property.” These actions, Hezbollah said, “are criminal, and have nothing to do with legitimate demands for improving living conditions or the right to protest.”
“Trump and Netanyahu,” Hezbollah claimed, were exploiting the leaderless nature of the demonstrations “to speak on their behalf” while steering them internally through “a handful of agents serving those who launched the failed 12-day aggression against Iran—but were exposed and failed miserably.” However, because American and Israeli objectives run contrary to the genuine will of Iranians, Hezbollah, the statement said, would continue to “fully support the choice of the Iranian people and its leadership.” The statement concluded, “God willing, the Islamic Republic will remain stable, strong, and independent.”
Hezbollah promises to defend Iran if needed
Hezbollah’s second articulation of its position on the protests in Iran came on January 26, in Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s speech during the group’s official “gathering in solidarity of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the dear Iranian people against the Global Arrogance [a dysphemism for the United States].”
Qassem began his nearly half-hour speech by restating the importance and centrality of Iran’s supreme leader as God’s earthly vicar, in Hezbollah’s worldview. “He is our guardian, our leader, who legitimizes our positions in the face of challenges and regarding our religious obligations. We can neither shed our blood nor engage in our resistance without his religious authorization—because blood is a sacred trust, and he is the one who sets the general course of the whole ummah,” he said. Qassem was thus saying that Hezbollah remained bound to the ideology of Wilayat al Faqih—the notion of owing allegiance and obedience to a qualified cleric acting as an earthly ruler of a properly constituted Islamic state—as its central animating principle.
“Hezbollah believes in the leadership of the Wali al Faqihin belief and practice,” Qassem said, and all of the group’s positions on domestic or international affairs stem from it. As the secretary-general implied, Hezbollah owes this obedience not necessarily to Ali Khamenei, Iran’s current supreme leader, but to any past or future clerics who have held or will hold the office. Therefore, Qassem said, US President Donald Trump’s threat to Ali Khamenei was a direct threat to Hezbollah and the “tens of millions and more” who similarly adhere to this ideology.
“We cannot ignore this, and it is our collective responsibility and obligation—as a matter of faith, conviction, and duty—to confront this threat and take all necessary measures and preparations to do so,” Qassem said. He further reasoned that because Khamenei’s assassination would pose a threat to regional stability, Hezbollah remains “concerned regarding this threat—a direct threat to us as well, in response to which we therefore have every right to do whatever we deem appropriate to meet the challenge.”
Qassem then restated the position articulated in Hezbollah’s January 13 statement: that Iran’s 1979 Revolution and the endurance of the Islamic regime it brought to power were the purest expression of the free and independent will of the Iranian people. The rise of this government, he said, also “constituted the biggest blow to America and Israel by deposing the Shah, and the project behind the 1978 Camp David Accords.” As a result, Qassem claimed, the United States, Israel, and the West instigated the Iraq-Iran War to bring about the nascent Islamic government’s collapse. However, “Iran endured” and continued to do so “despite 47 years of sanctions, economic blockade, and pressure,” he stated. Iran was similarly able to withstand “12 days of American-Israeli aggression last year through the mutual support and solidarity of the people with the leadership, the [Islamic Revolution] Guard [Corps], and security forces” who, “under Ali Khamenei’s leadership (may God prolong his life) succeeded in remaining steadfast and patient, and thus thwarted the American-Israeli enemy’s plans,” he said.
Now, Qassem claimed, this threat had not abated but simply changed tactics, “seeking to bring Iran down from within, embedding in lawful demonstrations those who murdered, destroyed, committed arson, burned mosques, killed people in the streets, and … spread chaos.” This effort, he said, had so far resulted in “3,117 missing or wounded, 590 of whom were these terrorists, and the rest of whom are from the security forces and the people.” Actual fatality estimates of Iranian protesters vary, but the latest credible numbers place the number of dead protesters at 6,126, with many more feared killed.
The United States and Israel, Qassem claimed, were fueling the chaos in Iran “under the guise of backing the ‘people’s rights,’ even though three million people alone in Tehran” had allegedly come out “in support of their self-determination, their leadership.”
Qassem alleged that the United States was fueling this instability as part of its quest for global domination, “not just in Iran.” Weeks earlier, Hezbollah had issued several statements claiming that Washington’s intervention in Venezuela and removal of its leader, Nicolas Maduro, was in service of identical nefarious objectives. Now, he claimed, the United States was seeking to deprive Iran of its “right to peaceful nuclear energy, supporting the downtrodden, and building an independent republic.” That, he said, was why the United States and Israel were seeking to “destroy the Resistance project” in “Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, and Syria,” as part of “a single colonial project.”
Qassem then turned to the question of whether Hezbollah would intervene in an “Israeli and American war on Iran,” saying that regardless of how such a war played out, Hezbollah was also “in the crosshairs.” He continued, “Therefore, we are determined to defend ourselves and will choose how to act at the appropriate time, by intervening or not, and the specifics will be determined by the prevailing circumstances at the time. We are not neutral. But how we will act will be determined by the battle, and we will make our determinations based on what serves our interests.” The “imbalance of power” between Hezbollah and its Axis of Resistance allies vs. the United States and Israel, Qassem said, was irrelevant to Hezbollah’s calculations.
Qassem rejected the notion that Hezbollah’s intervention would insert Lebanon into a foreign conflict, stressing that American and Israeli designs to “subsume Lebanon into the Israeli entity and give away Lebanese lands to Israel” had already made Lebanon an unwilling party. Hezbollah’s beliefs, he said, required it to prefer death in dignity than life in subjugation, and the group would, therefore, continue to reject “coerced peace” with Israel and the American “expansionism witnessed in Greenland, Europe, Canada, and Venezuela in the name of American national security.”
Therefore, Qassem said, “This time, war on Iran could ignite the entire region.” He continued, “Iran has helped us for 42, 43 years, and still supports our rights to our land, while America, Israel, and their allies want to force our country [Lebanon] to abandon its sources of strength,” a reference to the calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament.” Qassem said that for Hezbollah to adopt any other stance other than intervening to support Iran would be to “facilitate” this harm to Lebanon. “Surrender will cost us everything, whereas defense will leave us the hope of many possibilities,” he said. Death, Qassem said, would not deter Hezbollah, because “souls belong to God and only He can determine when they depart our bodies. But maintaining our dignity and pride is in our hands, and we will not relinquish them, for they are a sacred trust.”
Qassem concluded his speech by again offering salutations to the “Islamic Republic of Iran.” He then turned “to the Iranian people,” describing them as “the crown jewel.” “We are with you, and you are with us. God willing, Imam Khamenei, may God Almighty protect and preserve you, we will always be with you. We ask God Almighty to grant you success in handing over the banner directly to the Imam of our time, may our souls be sacrificed for the dust beneath his feet,” Qassem said.
David Daoud is Senior Fellow at at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs.
Analysis: Hezbollah: We will not remain neutral if Islamic Republic endangered
Hezbollah has yet to deploy operatives to protect the Islamic Republic of Iran’s regime from ongoing protests. However, the group has stated that it will not remain neutral if the United States or Israel attack the Tehran regime and threaten its existence. Hezbollah also claims the current...
www.longwarjournal.org
Analysis: Hezbollah: We will not remain neutral if Islamic Republic endangered
By David Daoud | January 27, 2026 | @DavidADaoud
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem gives a speech on January 26, 2026. (Alahed News)
Hezbollah is arguably the Islamic Republic of Iran’s primary and central extension, having described itself as such in the 1985 Open Letter, the group’s founding and constitutional document. As a result of this inextricable linkage, based on the belief that Iran’s Supreme Leader is the divinely guided earthly vicar of God, any threat to the Iranian regime’s stability, let alone its existence, is, by its very nature, a threat to Hezbollah as well.
Therefore, Hezbollah has inevitably been casting a wary gaze towards the latest ongoing nationwide protests in Iran that began on December 28, 2025. Unsubstantiated claims suggested that the group may have deployed its own operatives to Iran assist in the regime’s crackdown. However, as far as verifiable information goes, Hezbollah has, thus far, sufficed with offering Tehran verbal support while keeping its forces and arsenal in reserve, perhaps until it senses the regime is under existential threat—either from the protests or the United States or Israel exploiting the nationwide unrest to inflict a mortal blow upon their intractable adversary in Tehran.
Regardless of how Hezbollah ultimately chooses to respond to any threats to the Islamic Republic’s regime, the group and its leadership have made it clear that neutrality is not an option.
Hezbollah claims the United States controls Iranian anti-regime protests
Hezbollah issued its first official statement on the protests the day after the Iranian regime organized a demonstration in Tehran by its supporters that was estimated in the “tens of thousands” on January 12. In the statement, Hezbollah offered its “salutations” to the “millions” of Iranians whom it alleged “took to the streets throughout the Islamic Republic in support of the Islamic system and stability,” claiming they were expressing the people’s “true sentiments by rallying around the Islamic Republic’s leadership” headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Hezbollah’s statement stressed that Iran had freely chosen its form of government during the 1979 Revolution, a decision reinforced since then through “free and fair elections.” However, because, as Hezbollah asserts, this sovereigntist regime’s very existence stymies American hegemonic and exploitative ambitions, the group alleged “the United States” was exploiting protests as part of its “determination to destroy Iran from within and is using theZionist Entity as a tool of criminality, murder, and chaos to bring down the popular Islamic regime.”
Hezbollah’s statement, implicitly designed to cast a pall of illegitimacy over calls for regime change amidst Iran’s nationwide demonstrations, claimed that the Islamic Republic “respects the right of the people to protest and demonstrate peacefully.” However, the group alleged that “footage and statements have proven that America’s and Israel’s agents are embedding themselves in the protests to transform them into chaos and destruction – including burning mosques, governmental and security institutions, and destroying public property.” These actions, Hezbollah said, “are criminal, and have nothing to do with legitimate demands for improving living conditions or the right to protest.”
“Trump and Netanyahu,” Hezbollah claimed, were exploiting the leaderless nature of the demonstrations “to speak on their behalf” while steering them internally through “a handful of agents serving those who launched the failed 12-day aggression against Iran—but were exposed and failed miserably.” However, because American and Israeli objectives run contrary to the genuine will of Iranians, Hezbollah, the statement said, would continue to “fully support the choice of the Iranian people and its leadership.” The statement concluded, “God willing, the Islamic Republic will remain stable, strong, and independent.”
Hezbollah promises to defend Iran if needed
Hezbollah’s second articulation of its position on the protests in Iran came on January 26, in Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem’s speech during the group’s official “gathering in solidarity of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the dear Iranian people against the Global Arrogance [a dysphemism for the United States].”
Qassem began his nearly half-hour speech by restating the importance and centrality of Iran’s supreme leader as God’s earthly vicar, in Hezbollah’s worldview. “He is our guardian, our leader, who legitimizes our positions in the face of challenges and regarding our religious obligations. We can neither shed our blood nor engage in our resistance without his religious authorization—because blood is a sacred trust, and he is the one who sets the general course of the whole ummah,” he said. Qassem was thus saying that Hezbollah remained bound to the ideology of Wilayat al Faqih—the notion of owing allegiance and obedience to a qualified cleric acting as an earthly ruler of a properly constituted Islamic state—as its central animating principle.
“Hezbollah believes in the leadership of the Wali al Faqihin belief and practice,” Qassem said, and all of the group’s positions on domestic or international affairs stem from it. As the secretary-general implied, Hezbollah owes this obedience not necessarily to Ali Khamenei, Iran’s current supreme leader, but to any past or future clerics who have held or will hold the office. Therefore, Qassem said, US President Donald Trump’s threat to Ali Khamenei was a direct threat to Hezbollah and the “tens of millions and more” who similarly adhere to this ideology.
“We cannot ignore this, and it is our collective responsibility and obligation—as a matter of faith, conviction, and duty—to confront this threat and take all necessary measures and preparations to do so,” Qassem said. He further reasoned that because Khamenei’s assassination would pose a threat to regional stability, Hezbollah remains “concerned regarding this threat—a direct threat to us as well, in response to which we therefore have every right to do whatever we deem appropriate to meet the challenge.”
Qassem then restated the position articulated in Hezbollah’s January 13 statement: that Iran’s 1979 Revolution and the endurance of the Islamic regime it brought to power were the purest expression of the free and independent will of the Iranian people. The rise of this government, he said, also “constituted the biggest blow to America and Israel by deposing the Shah, and the project behind the 1978 Camp David Accords.” As a result, Qassem claimed, the United States, Israel, and the West instigated the Iraq-Iran War to bring about the nascent Islamic government’s collapse. However, “Iran endured” and continued to do so “despite 47 years of sanctions, economic blockade, and pressure,” he stated. Iran was similarly able to withstand “12 days of American-Israeli aggression last year through the mutual support and solidarity of the people with the leadership, the [Islamic Revolution] Guard [Corps], and security forces” who, “under Ali Khamenei’s leadership (may God prolong his life) succeeded in remaining steadfast and patient, and thus thwarted the American-Israeli enemy’s plans,” he said.
Now, Qassem claimed, this threat had not abated but simply changed tactics, “seeking to bring Iran down from within, embedding in lawful demonstrations those who murdered, destroyed, committed arson, burned mosques, killed people in the streets, and … spread chaos.” This effort, he said, had so far resulted in “3,117 missing or wounded, 590 of whom were these terrorists, and the rest of whom are from the security forces and the people.” Actual fatality estimates of Iranian protesters vary, but the latest credible numbers place the number of dead protesters at 6,126, with many more feared killed.
The United States and Israel, Qassem claimed, were fueling the chaos in Iran “under the guise of backing the ‘people’s rights,’ even though three million people alone in Tehran” had allegedly come out “in support of their self-determination, their leadership.”
Qassem alleged that the United States was fueling this instability as part of its quest for global domination, “not just in Iran.” Weeks earlier, Hezbollah had issued several statements claiming that Washington’s intervention in Venezuela and removal of its leader, Nicolas Maduro, was in service of identical nefarious objectives. Now, he claimed, the United States was seeking to deprive Iran of its “right to peaceful nuclear energy, supporting the downtrodden, and building an independent republic.” That, he said, was why the United States and Israel were seeking to “destroy the Resistance project” in “Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, and Syria,” as part of “a single colonial project.”
Qassem then turned to the question of whether Hezbollah would intervene in an “Israeli and American war on Iran,” saying that regardless of how such a war played out, Hezbollah was also “in the crosshairs.” He continued, “Therefore, we are determined to defend ourselves and will choose how to act at the appropriate time, by intervening or not, and the specifics will be determined by the prevailing circumstances at the time. We are not neutral. But how we will act will be determined by the battle, and we will make our determinations based on what serves our interests.” The “imbalance of power” between Hezbollah and its Axis of Resistance allies vs. the United States and Israel, Qassem said, was irrelevant to Hezbollah’s calculations.
Qassem rejected the notion that Hezbollah’s intervention would insert Lebanon into a foreign conflict, stressing that American and Israeli designs to “subsume Lebanon into the Israeli entity and give away Lebanese lands to Israel” had already made Lebanon an unwilling party. Hezbollah’s beliefs, he said, required it to prefer death in dignity than life in subjugation, and the group would, therefore, continue to reject “coerced peace” with Israel and the American “expansionism witnessed in Greenland, Europe, Canada, and Venezuela in the name of American national security.”
Therefore, Qassem said, “This time, war on Iran could ignite the entire region.” He continued, “Iran has helped us for 42, 43 years, and still supports our rights to our land, while America, Israel, and their allies want to force our country [Lebanon] to abandon its sources of strength,” a reference to the calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament.” Qassem said that for Hezbollah to adopt any other stance other than intervening to support Iran would be to “facilitate” this harm to Lebanon. “Surrender will cost us everything, whereas defense will leave us the hope of many possibilities,” he said. Death, Qassem said, would not deter Hezbollah, because “souls belong to God and only He can determine when they depart our bodies. But maintaining our dignity and pride is in our hands, and we will not relinquish them, for they are a sacred trust.”
Qassem concluded his speech by again offering salutations to the “Islamic Republic of Iran.” He then turned “to the Iranian people,” describing them as “the crown jewel.” “We are with you, and you are with us. God willing, Imam Khamenei, may God Almighty protect and preserve you, we will always be with you. We ask God Almighty to grant you success in handing over the banner directly to the Imam of our time, may our souls be sacrificed for the dust beneath his feet,” Qassem said.
David Daoud is Senior Fellow at at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs.
auxman
Deus vult...
Pentagon Pizza Report:
Both Papa Johns locations nearby the Pentagon, as well as Pizzato Pizza, are reporting high traffic.
This is despite most other pizzerias reporting below average traffic all night.
As of 7:48pm ET
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/2016312778454184315
Both Papa Johns locations nearby the Pentagon, as well as Pizzato Pizza, are reporting high traffic.
This is despite most other pizzerias reporting below average traffic all night.
As of 7:48pm ET
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/2016312778454184315
somewherepress
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Daily Iran News
@DailyIranNews
BREAKING: The Iranian Parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz now, and the decision is left to the security authorities, according to Iranian media right now.
1:23 PM · Jan 27, 2026
Wyominglarry
Veteran Member
After the US and Israel start the bombing then the US and Israel should load some cargo planes with thousands of AK 47, magazines, and ammo and drop them to the civilians, who can use them to kill the thugs that the regime hired to kill Iranians. Reports coming out of Iran, say that most of the killings are being done by militias from outside of Iran. Israel has hundreds of thousands of AKs captured from the many wars they won. Plus the ammo and g-d knows what else such as RPGs and rockets.
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
And the next FAVORABLE moon is 2-18ish.
Last edited:
Daily Iran News
@DailyIranNews
BREAKING: The Iranian Parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz now, and the decision is left to the security authorities, according to Iranian media right now.
1:23 PM · Jan 27, 2026
They're a "rubber stamp" at this point.....
auxman
Deus vult...
SightBringer (AI):
️The public framing of a warship fleet “heading toward Iran” with a hope it won’t be used is a strategic signal dressed up as diplomacy.
This kind of message operates on multiple layers at once:
1. Positioning before engagement
Announcing a fleet movement publicly before any actual combat creates a psychological effect. It conditions expectations. It normalizes the idea of force being in motion without having fired a shot. That means when kinetic action eventually happens, the public has already processed the presence of force as normal.
2. Creating narrative leverage
By pairing a military deployment with language that emphasizes hoping it won’t be used, the speaker is shaping the story ahead of reality. If a strike happens later, the narrative won’t be “unexpected war.” It will be “reluctant necessity,” a framing that softens accountability and moral blowback.
3. Pressure vector testing
Large fleet deployments are expensive and logistically complex. Announcing them publicly effectively tests multiple systems at once:
•domestic support
•allied alignment
•enemy calibration
•media normalization
If any of those systems resist, the leadership gains data. If they acquiesce, the pathway forward is clearer.
4. Strategic ambiguity
Saying “we hope it won’t be used” is a classic tool in coercive diplomacy. It means that the threshold for actual use is undefined. This forces Iran to interpret ambiguous behavior as potentially hostile. That ambiguity becomes itself a form of pressure because it distorts the adversary’s risk calculus and forces reactive posturing.
5. Incentive alignment for allies
By publicly moving force toward a regional theater, the speaker is also binding allied partners into a mental scaffold in which U.S. presence equals seriousness. Partners who might otherwise hedge are now placed in a situation where retreat looks like abandonment.
6. Internal domestic signaling
In a period where domestic politics matter for foreign engagements, this kind of public announcement reinforces the image of assertive leadership. It shifts the discourse from quiet diplomacy to decisive readiness.
7. Preconditioning escalation path
This announcement sets up a continuum of escalation instead of a cliff. If action is taken later, the leadership can point back to the earlier statement as justification that this is part of a calibrated sequence of options, not a sudden choice.
At the deepest level, this is about shaping the mental map of all actors simultaneously:
•Iran interprets it as credible threat
•Regional powers re-evaluate their postures
•Allies adjust their expectations
•Domestic audiences acclimate to the concept of force being in play
•Media narratives shift from surprise to inevitability
Publicly moving a fleet and publicly framing it as “we hope it won’t be used” is about controlling the timeline of threat perception more than it is about the physical presence of ships.
This is how you manage escalation without declaring war.
This is how you make the step toward kinetic conflict look like a rational progression rather than an abrupt rupture.
This is strategic signaling in its rawest form.
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/2016344075486814557
️The public framing of a warship fleet “heading toward Iran” with a hope it won’t be used is a strategic signal dressed up as diplomacy.This kind of message operates on multiple layers at once:
1. Positioning before engagement
Announcing a fleet movement publicly before any actual combat creates a psychological effect. It conditions expectations. It normalizes the idea of force being in motion without having fired a shot. That means when kinetic action eventually happens, the public has already processed the presence of force as normal.
2. Creating narrative leverage
By pairing a military deployment with language that emphasizes hoping it won’t be used, the speaker is shaping the story ahead of reality. If a strike happens later, the narrative won’t be “unexpected war.” It will be “reluctant necessity,” a framing that softens accountability and moral blowback.
3. Pressure vector testing
Large fleet deployments are expensive and logistically complex. Announcing them publicly effectively tests multiple systems at once:
•domestic support
•allied alignment
•enemy calibration
•media normalization
If any of those systems resist, the leadership gains data. If they acquiesce, the pathway forward is clearer.
4. Strategic ambiguity
Saying “we hope it won’t be used” is a classic tool in coercive diplomacy. It means that the threshold for actual use is undefined. This forces Iran to interpret ambiguous behavior as potentially hostile. That ambiguity becomes itself a form of pressure because it distorts the adversary’s risk calculus and forces reactive posturing.
5. Incentive alignment for allies
By publicly moving force toward a regional theater, the speaker is also binding allied partners into a mental scaffold in which U.S. presence equals seriousness. Partners who might otherwise hedge are now placed in a situation where retreat looks like abandonment.
6. Internal domestic signaling
In a period where domestic politics matter for foreign engagements, this kind of public announcement reinforces the image of assertive leadership. It shifts the discourse from quiet diplomacy to decisive readiness.
7. Preconditioning escalation path
This announcement sets up a continuum of escalation instead of a cliff. If action is taken later, the leadership can point back to the earlier statement as justification that this is part of a calibrated sequence of options, not a sudden choice.
At the deepest level, this is about shaping the mental map of all actors simultaneously:
•Iran interprets it as credible threat
•Regional powers re-evaluate their postures
•Allies adjust their expectations
•Domestic audiences acclimate to the concept of force being in play
•Media narratives shift from surprise to inevitability
Publicly moving a fleet and publicly framing it as “we hope it won’t be used” is about controlling the timeline of threat perception more than it is about the physical presence of ships.
This is how you manage escalation without declaring war.
This is how you make the step toward kinetic conflict look like a rational progression rather than an abrupt rupture.
This is strategic signaling in its rawest form.
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/2016344075486814557
energy_wave
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Khamenei Finally Got Scared as Footage Of Islamic Republic Leaders Children Goes Viral!
No description. Just watch, you'll be pissed.Rt 6:02
SightBringer (AI):
This kind of message operates on multiple layers at once:
1. Positioning before engagement
Announcing a fleet movement publicly before any actual combat creates a psychological effect. It conditions expectations. It normalizes the idea of force being in motion without having fired a shot. That means when kinetic action eventually happens, the public has already processed the presence of force as normal.
2. Creating narrative leverage
By pairing a military deployment with language that emphasizes hoping it won’t be used, the speaker is shaping the story ahead of reality. If a strike happens later, the narrative won’t be “unexpected war.” It will be “reluctant necessity,” a framing that softens accountability and moral blowback.
3. Pressure vector testing
Large fleet deployments are expensive and logistically complex. Announcing them publicly effectively tests multiple systems at once:
•domestic support
•allied alignment
•enemy calibration
•media normalization
If any of those systems resist, the leadership gains data. If they acquiesce, the pathway forward is clearer.
4. Strategic ambiguity
Saying “we hope it won’t be used” is a classic tool in coercive diplomacy. It means that the threshold for actual use is undefined. This forces Iran to interpret ambiguous behavior as potentially hostile. That ambiguity becomes itself a form of pressure because it distorts the adversary’s risk calculus and forces reactive posturing.
5. Incentive alignment for allies
By publicly moving force toward a regional theater, the speaker is also binding allied partners into a mental scaffold in which U.S. presence equals seriousness. Partners who might otherwise hedge are now placed in a situation where retreat looks like abandonment.
6. Internal domestic signaling
In a period where domestic politics matter for foreign engagements, this kind of public announcement reinforces the image of assertive leadership. It shifts the discourse from quiet diplomacy to decisive readiness.
7. Preconditioning escalation path
This announcement sets up a continuum of escalation instead of a cliff. If action is taken later, the leadership can point back to the earlier statement as justification that this is part of a calibrated sequence of options, not a sudden choice.
At the deepest level, this is about shaping the mental map of all actors simultaneously:
•Iran interprets it as credible threat
•Regional powers re-evaluate their postures
•Allies adjust their expectations
•Domestic audiences acclimate to the concept of force being in play
•Media narratives shift from surprise to inevitability
Publicly moving a fleet and publicly framing it as “we hope it won’t be used” is about controlling the timeline of threat perception more than it is about the physical presence of ships.
This is how you manage escalation without declaring war.
This is how you make the step toward kinetic conflict look like a rational progression rather than an abrupt rupture.
This is strategic signaling in its rawest form.
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/2016344075486814557
Considering POTUS said he wasn't going to the Super Bowl nor watch it on TV the "tea leaves" imply a "go" sooner rather than later.
Posted for fair use.........
www.aljazeera.com
By Al Jazeera Staff
Published On 28 Jan 2026 28 Jan 2026
Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that a United States attack on Iran would be “wrong”, calling on Washington and Tehran to resolve their issues diplomatically and gradually.
In an interview with Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas, segments of which aired on Wednesday, Fidan called for regional cooperation as the US amasses military assets in the Middle East amid a spike in tensions with Iran.
The US has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Gulf as Trump continues to threaten to launch renewed attacks against Iran after last June’s 12-day conflict.
For their part, Iranian officials have promised to launch a “comprehensive and regret-inducing response” if attacked again.
On Tuesday, Trump highlighted the growing US military force in the region while keeping the door open for diplomacy.
“By the way, there’s another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now. So we’ll see. I hope they make a deal,” he told supporters at a rally.
Despite the escalating rhetoric, Fidan suggested that a diplomatic resolution is still possible.
“Iran is ready to negotiate a nuclear file again,” the top Turkish diplomat said.
After Israel started the war by bombing Iran in June, the US struck Iran’s three main nuclear facilities. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the attack “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear programme.
But Tehran has insisted on its right to nuclear enrichment, and the whereabouts of the country’s highly enriched uranium remain unknown.
“My advice always to the American friends, close the files one by one with Iran. Start with nuclear, close it, then the others,” Fidan said.
“If you put them as a package, all of them, it will be very difficult for our Iranian friends to digest and to really process it and to go through this. And sometimes, it might seem humiliating for them. It will be very difficult to explain to not only themselves, but with the leadership.”
Fidan said Iran can fit in a “perfect place” in the regional order.
“They need to create trust in the region,” Fidan said of the Iranians. “They need to have attention to how they are perceived by the regional countries, because they are not going anywhere; we are not going anywhere.”
The top Turkish diplomat added that despite different ideologies, leanings and sects, countries in the region have to cooperate and work together within the nation-state system.
The full interview will air on Al Jazeera English on Thursday at 16:30 GMT.
Top Turkish diplomat says Iran ready to negotiate, warns against US attack
'It's wrong to start the war again,' Turkiye's foreign minister tells Al Jazeera amid escalating US-Iran tensions.
Top Turkish diplomat says Iran ready to negotiate, warns against US attack
‘It’s wrong to start the war again,’ the top Turkish diplomat tells Al Jazeera amid escalating US-Iran tensions.By Al Jazeera Staff
Published On 28 Jan 2026 28 Jan 2026
Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that a United States attack on Iran would be “wrong”, calling on Washington and Tehran to resolve their issues diplomatically and gradually.
In an interview with Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas, segments of which aired on Wednesday, Fidan called for regional cooperation as the US amasses military assets in the Middle East amid a spike in tensions with Iran.
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The US has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Gulf as Trump continues to threaten to launch renewed attacks against Iran after last June’s 12-day conflict.
For their part, Iranian officials have promised to launch a “comprehensive and regret-inducing response” if attacked again.
Diplomacy still possible
Earlier this month, Trump told Iranian antigovernment protesters that “help is on the way”, urging them to take over state institutions.On Tuesday, Trump highlighted the growing US military force in the region while keeping the door open for diplomacy.
“By the way, there’s another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now. So we’ll see. I hope they make a deal,” he told supporters at a rally.
Despite the escalating rhetoric, Fidan suggested that a diplomatic resolution is still possible.
“Iran is ready to negotiate a nuclear file again,” the top Turkish diplomat said.
After Israel started the war by bombing Iran in June, the US struck Iran’s three main nuclear facilities. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the attack “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear programme.
But Tehran has insisted on its right to nuclear enrichment, and the whereabouts of the country’s highly enriched uranium remain unknown.
One issue at a time
Beyond the nuclear programme, US officials have also said Iran should scale back its missile arsenal and end support to allied non-state actors in the region, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.“My advice always to the American friends, close the files one by one with Iran. Start with nuclear, close it, then the others,” Fidan said.
“If you put them as a package, all of them, it will be very difficult for our Iranian friends to digest and to really process it and to go through this. And sometimes, it might seem humiliating for them. It will be very difficult to explain to not only themselves, but with the leadership.”
Fidan said Iran can fit in a “perfect place” in the regional order.
“They need to create trust in the region,” Fidan said of the Iranians. “They need to have attention to how they are perceived by the regional countries, because they are not going anywhere; we are not going anywhere.”
The top Turkish diplomat added that despite different ideologies, leanings and sects, countries in the region have to cooperate and work together within the nation-state system.
The full interview will air on Al Jazeera English on Thursday at 16:30 GMT.
markshere2
Senior Member
I trust Turkey .... not at all.
Old Greek
Veteran Member
Do not trust "any" muzzies. They are instructed by their holy (spit) book to lie!
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Conflict Radar
@Conflict_Radar
·
10m
Sec of State Marco Rubio: "We have 30 to 40,000 American troops stationed across eight or nine facilities in that region. All are within the reach theoretically, not theoretically in reality, all are within the reach of an array of 1000s of Iranian one way, one way, UAVs and Iranian short range ballistic missiles that threaten our troop presence" "We have to have enough force and power in the region just on a baseline to defend against that possibility that at some point, as a result of something, the Iranian regime decides to strike at our troop presence in the region, the President always reserves the preemptive defensive option."
Conflict Radar
@Conflict_Radar
·
1h
#NEW Sec of State Marco Rubio told a Senate hearing that deaths during Iran’s protests were "in the thousands for sure."
@Conflict_Radar
·
10m
Sec of State Marco Rubio: "We have 30 to 40,000 American troops stationed across eight or nine facilities in that region. All are within the reach theoretically, not theoretically in reality, all are within the reach of an array of 1000s of Iranian one way, one way, UAVs and Iranian short range ballistic missiles that threaten our troop presence" "We have to have enough force and power in the region just on a baseline to defend against that possibility that at some point, as a result of something, the Iranian regime decides to strike at our troop presence in the region, the President always reserves the preemptive defensive option."
Conflict Radar
@Conflict_Radar
·
1h
#NEW Sec of State Marco Rubio told a Senate hearing that deaths during Iran’s protests were "in the thousands for sure."
danielboon
TB Fanatic
@EndGameWW3
·
7m
Rubio: I hope we do not reach the stage of war with Iran, as Tehran has thousands of ballistic missiles despite the collapse of its economy.
Quote
AlSharqiya TV - قناة الشرقية
@alsharqiyatv
·
9m
Translated from Arabic
Rubio: I hope we do not reach the stage of war with #Iran, as Tehran has thousands of ballistic missiles despite the collapse of its economy
·
7m
Rubio: I hope we do not reach the stage of war with Iran, as Tehran has thousands of ballistic missiles despite the collapse of its economy.
Quote
AlSharqiya TV - قناة الشرقية
@alsharqiyatv
·
9m
Translated from Arabic
Rubio: I hope we do not reach the stage of war with #Iran, as Tehran has thousands of ballistic missiles despite the collapse of its economy
energy_wave
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Maybe the US does a surprise attack to take out all those missile sites. Then Trump asks them one more time, come to the table and talk.
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Yoav will laugh
@laugh_yoav
·
10m
Translated from Hebrew
According to a pizza delivery guy in the vicinity of the Pentagon: The United States is expected to strike Iran on the night between Saturday and Sunday. The attack is planned to be large-scale, targeting hundreds of strategic sites, and combined with the internal protest force of Iranian citizens from within. The attack is planned to be short — up to 5 days — and relatively clean, with no expectation of significant damage, and its objective is to topple the regime.
@laugh_yoav
·
10m
Translated from Hebrew
According to a pizza delivery guy in the vicinity of the Pentagon: The United States is expected to strike Iran on the night between Saturday and Sunday. The attack is planned to be large-scale, targeting hundreds of strategic sites, and combined with the internal protest force of Iranian citizens from within. The attack is planned to be short — up to 5 days — and relatively clean, with no expectation of significant damage, and its objective is to topple the regime.
somewherepress
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Eli Afriat
@EliAfriatISR
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BREAKING: Revolutionary Guards Navy Commander: "It's time for the US to leave our region, otherwise it will face the consequences.
11:00 AM · Jan 28, 2026
Melodi
Disaster Cat
I suspect that in the Internet age, such things will be increasingly difficult to control. Even if they did a massive and modern version of "loose lips sink ships," there will always be people (including young teenagers) who pick things up (especially the more nerdy and tech-savvy types) that are likely to put out what they know.
The only upside is that this is likely to be true for all militaries. In some places (like China), it will be more controlled than others, but some information is still likely to leak out.
On the other hand, I gather this is why the Pentagon put its own pizzeria in its building, but obviously, other offices related to it still order out.
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
It's now public record.
somewherepress
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Eli Afriat
@EliAfriatISR
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BREAKING: “Trump will give Iran a 24-hour ultimatum to GIVE UP on the nuclear and ballistic program”.
https://x.com/EliAfriatISR/status/2016538003930599537/photo/1
https://x.com/EliAfriatISR/status/2016538003930599537/photo/2
9:45 AM · Jan 28, 2026
@EliAfriatISR
Subscribe
BREAKING: “Trump will give Iran a 24-hour ultimatum to GIVE UP on the nuclear and ballistic program”.
https://x.com/EliAfriatISR/status/2016538003930599537/photo/1
https://x.com/EliAfriatISR/status/2016538003930599537/photo/2
9:45 AM · Jan 28, 2026