ECON Inflation - Another Example - Used car and truck prices soar by most on record Prices spiked 10% in April

20Gauge

TB Fanatic

Used car and truck prices in April surged by the most since recordkeeping began in 1953, boosted by pent-up demand among consumers, many of whom had more cash to spend thanks to government stimulus measures.

Used car and truck prices rose 10% last month and were up 21% versus the same period last year.

"People have a lot of extra money that the government is giving them, so they are going out and buying cars," said Steve Moore, senior economic contributor at FreedomWorks, a grassroots organization that advocates for smaller government.

He noted the increased demand comes amid supply chain disruptions that have resulted in fewer new cars being produced. New vehicle inventory at dealerships was down 36% year over year in March, according to online car-shopping guide Edmunds.


That was before automakers, including Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co., deepened production cuts in order to further navigate the semiconductor chip shortage that developed in the wake of COVID-19. Those output cuts came about a year after automakers were forced to temporarily shut production in order to comply with stay-at-home orders aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19.

The jump in used car and truck prices accounted for more than one-third of the consumer price index’s 0.8% monthly increase. Consumer prices rose 4.2% year over year in April, making for the biggest annual increase since September 2008.

The annual data has a "base effects" skew due to the decline in prices that occurred at the start of the pandemic.

"Inflation is likely to head even higher over the next couple of months as price levels in a vibrant, strengthening economy that has supply constraints, contrast starkly with those of twelve months ago when the economy was in lockdown and prices were being slashed in order to generate cashflow," said James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist.

Even quicker price increases are likely to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to remove the emergency policies that were put in place to steer the U.S. economy through its deepest slowdown of the post-World War II era.

The Fed last year cut interest rates to near zero and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of assets. The central bank also said it would let inflation moderately exceed its 2% target for some time before taking action.

For Moore, the answer is simple: Congress needs to stop its unnecessary spending and borrowing.

"We don't need another two or four trillion dollars spending," he said in regards to Democrats’ proposals for childcare and infrastructure. "That would be adding gasoline to the fire with some inflation."
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
At best they are admitting the following:

Used car and truck prices rose 10% last month and were up 21% versus the same period last year.

This means at best we are looking at 21% inflation in used auto sales or 120% depending which stats you use.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
does this mean that
prices are up 21% from last year
and of that 21%, 10% of it was in April alone?

cause man, if I wait a couple more months,
it will be worth more than what I paid for it 13 years ago
money for nothing, chicks free
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
does this mean that
prices are up 21% from last year
and of that 21%, 10% of it was in April alone?
The article said 21% year over year.

Or say year over year was 2.1% monthly increase which totaled 21% on an annual basis.

The April rate was 10% alone, which makes it 120% annually.

Pick the stat that makes you happier.
 

Sicario

The Executor
Now is a GREAT time to divest of any good used vehicles you may be wanting to part with. I just sold a 2018 SUV to Carvana for $2,000 more than they offered me just 2 months ago! They paid me above "Private Party" retail for it! Dealer scoffed at me and said they would offer me nowhere near what Carvana is paying. Best thing is, Carvana came, picked the car up and handed me a check. AMAZING experience! Carvana knows that new car production and sales are DEAD and will not be revived anytime soon.

They may be overpaying now, but they'll be set like kings when they have inventory to sell and the new dealers do not.
 
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raven

TB Fanatic
Now is a GREAT time to divest of any good used vehicles you may be wanting to part with. I just sold a 2018 SUV to Carvana for $2,000 more than they offered me just 2 months ago! They paid me above "Private Party" retail for it! Dealer scoffed at me and said they would offer me no where near what Carvana is paying. Best thing is, Carvana comes and picked the car up and dropped me off a check. AMAZING experience!
yea . . . unfortunately my lemon is in the shop
but on the bright side it will be worth more than what I owe on it by the time it comes back
won't be able to replace it
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
yea . . . unfortunately my lemon is in the shop
but on the bright side it will be worth more than what I owe on it by the time it comes back
won't be able to replace it
That is the point of the matter. Great time to sell if you have extra. Lousy time to be caught without.
 

naegling62

Veteran Member
Hmm...... I wonder what my 2002 Dodge 1500 with no dash top, cracked windshield, 276,000 miles with 7 cylinders working is worth.
 

Sicario

The Executor
That is the point of the matter. Great time to sell if you have extra. Lousy time to be caught without.
I wasn't planning to replace the SUV when I sold it. Was just going to sell it. But strangely enough, I got a great deal at an area dealer and paid cash for a beautiful Toyota with 10K miles on it. Carvana couldn't touch the deal I got. There are a few gaps in the system still at this point . Happy, happy!
 
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20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Copper crunch drives record prices
Copper has gained over 36% this year

So if we annualize this it would be as follows: = 36% / 4 * 12 = 108% inflation this year.


Copper flirted with a fresh record high Tuesday as traders continued to bid up its price amid an environment of tight supplies.

The price of the base metal was trading higher by 3 cents at $4.7920 per pound Wednesday exceeding, its all-time high of $4.7785 reached Tuesday.

Copper’s price curve is the most backwardated it’s been in 10 years. Backwardation occurs when the spot price is higher than the future price.


Supplies are "under pressure, and that’s what’s driving the copper price" higher, said Barrick Gold CEO Mark Bristow in a recent interview. About 20% of Barrick Gold’s business is in copper, and the company breaks even at $2.75 per pound.

Bristow noted that above-ground copper stocks have been "depleted" primarily due to heavy buying from China but also due to strong demand for electric vehicles.

Supplies, when measured in tonnes, are at levels seen 15 years ago and cover just 3.3 weeks of demand, according to analysts at Bank of America led by Michael Widmer.

They expect inventories to remain tight as more countries reopen from their COVID-19 lockdowns, driving the price up to as much as $5.89 per pound.

After copper market deficits this year and next, the Bank of America analysts predict a rebalancing in the market in 2023 and 2024 before a deficit returns in 2025. They warn the copper price could surge as high as $9.07 per pound if supplies do not bounce back.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
LOL. Just for grins a few minutes ago, I checked the KBB value on my 2016 4x4 Chevy Silverado, Dad's old 2001, 2500 Silverado, and the old Suzuki Quad ATV. My 2016 is still worth exactly what I paid for it brand new, Pa's truck and the old Quad are booking right now at 2X what they were 5 years ago. Get rid of any of them right now? No way.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
I can't KBB as they want me to allow cookies, won't do that.

But a quick google says my 2006 Chevy is good until 200k with a value of $2k to $12k.

Mine is past the 200K, so I will stay happy and keep it running.

Quote: a chevy silverado 1500 has to be maintained very well to last past 200k.......lol
 

WTSR

Veteran Member
I've been thinking to sell my 2016 Silverado it has only 41,700 miles so If I can get near $25k or better I might.
 

Donghe Surfer

Veteran Member
When Money Dies. Find .pdf file somewhere on the Internet (it's out there). 160+ pages. Easy read.
One thing that Germans did was buy or at least keep all tangibles, no matter what they were. Art, furniture, etc.
Keep those cars/trucks if they run.
 

Sicario

The Executor
I've been thinking to sell my 2016 Silverado it has only 41,700 miles so If I can get near $25k or better I might.
Run it by Carvana, Carmax and Vroom.com and see what they'll offer you. Can't hurt to check. You might be surprised!
 

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Same is true of used heavy machinery/farm equipment.......and parts.

High new costs are driving used costs.

Inflation by any excuse available driving parts prices.

How much longer can the commoners carry on ?
 

TKO

Veteran Member
Now is a GREAT time to divest of any good used vehicles you may be wanting to part with. I just sold a 2018 SUV to Carvana for $2,000 more than they offered me just 2 months ago! They paid me above "Private Party" retail for it! Dealer scoffed at me and said they would offer me nowhere near what Carvana is paying. Best thing is, Carvana came, picked the car up and handed me a check. AMAZING experience! Carvana knows that new car production and sales are DEAD and will not be revived anytime soon.

They may be overpaying now, but they'll be set like kings when they have inventory to sell and the new dealers do not.
Maybe I can sell my Toyota for massive bucks and get a great deal on a Honda Civic then.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Therein lies the problem. Sell what you have and what ya gonna drive? Replacing anything costs a lot of $$$.

Haha! Brings back so many un-fond memories of the Ford/Carter years.
Don't be fooled by numbers. They quickly become meaningless. It's hard GOODS that count in an inflationary economy.

Example: Maybe you can trade that truck for the 10 acres of land that adjoins yours. Or for somebody to build you a pole building or garage.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
I have to take a picture update for the one I did last week.

There are even fewer cars there new or used.
 

Tex88

Veteran Member
I was pricing used cars last week and the only ones I can afford are shittier than what I got now. And cars /exactly/ like mine (probably minus the cigarette burn in the drivers seat and the front wheel well inserts missing) cost as much as what I paid for mine six years ago.
 
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