H5N1 Pandemic : Epidemic a reality as human bird flu cases escalate

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Epidemic a reality as bird flu cases escalate

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/ep...cases-escalate/2005/09/21/1126982124521.html#

The World Health Organisation is warning of a catastrophic bird flu pandemic, and Indonesia has admitted it already has an epidemic after a five-year-old girl died and nine more patients were quarantined.

The Prime Minister, John Howard, said yesterday the consequences of a bird flu pandemic would be "enormous", as Australia agreed to a request from Indonesia's Health Ministry to fund the purchase of 10,000 doses of the antiviral drug Tamiflu.

In Japan, the Ministry for Agriculture said it was about halfway through the slaughter and incineration of 1.5 million chickens as it tries to contain the virus. Thirty-one poultry farms, all involved in egg production, remain under quarantine after testing positive during recent sweeps.

The virus is estimated to have infected more than 10 million birds in Indonesia.

In Jakarta, a two-year-old girl with flu-like symptoms died at Cikini Hospital in the city centre yesterday. A spokeswoman said her tests for bird flu had not been returned. Three more patients, a 19-year-old, a 17-year-old boy and a nine-year-old girl, were admitted to Jakarta hospitals with similar symptoms yesterday. The girl had visited Jakarta's zoo before it was closed on Monday due to the spread of the virus.
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The five-year-old victim, Riska Hardiyanti, died of acute pneumonia "with signs that it was caused by virus", the Health Minister, Siti Fadilah Supari, said. Initial local tests were negative for the virus but more testing was required, she said.

Mrs Supari said yesterday the outbreak "can be described as an epidemic … [cases] will happen again as long as we cannot determine the source". She urged the public to stay calm.

The Agriculture Minister, Anton Apriyanto, said Indonesia was prepared to conduct a mass

cull of poultry where any bird flu outbreak was serious, but he was immediately contradicted by his own department. A senior official told the Herald "there will be no mass culling on Java" - the most heavily populated island, where five deaths have been linked to the bird flu virus. "There will be no plague in Java because the birds have been vaccinated," he said.

Mr Apriyanto said more than 20 per cent of birds must carry the virus before an area would be considered highly infected.

In July, he called off a cull of an infected area near Jakarta where three people died from bird flu, saying the Government lacked the funds to compensate farmers.

Under World Health Organisation guidelines all birds within three kilometres of a bird flu outbreak should be killed and strict restrictions on movement imposed. The organisation is warning of a catastrophic pandemic if the virus begins to be easily passed between humans.

After an emergency meeting on Tuesday night, Indonesia's cabinet endorsed placing the country on "extraordinary alert" over bird flu.

Mr Howard said yesterday he was confident adequate measures had been taken to deal with the threat posed by a bird flu pandemic, but "it's one of those things that we must keep our focus on … It's not an exaggeration to say that if it really occurred, the consequences of it would be enormous."

The Commonwealth's Chief Medical Officer, John Horvath, said although he was deeply concerned about the bird flu situation in Indonesia, the latest developments were a continuation of an 18-month long outbreak.

"Of greatest importance is the question of whether these recent events in Indonesia signal the start of an influenza pandemic - I am advised that currently there is no evidence that this has happened," he said. Indonesia's decision to declare an emergency situation was a "positive sign", he said, as it indicated that all potential new cases would be investigated and any change in the situation quickly identified.

Labor's foreign affairs spokesman, Kevin Rudd, accused the Government of being slow to act in trying to co-ordinate a regional response to the bird flu threat. The latest outbreak of bird flu in Jakarta "underlines the need of the Australian Government to increase its efforts to combat the threat of a pandemic in the region", he said.

International co-operation on dealing with bird flu is expected to be discussed at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in South Korea in November.

Vietnam, where more than 40 people have died of bird flu over the past two years, has appealed for help to improve early detection of the virus. The country has not reported any new human cases recently but would begin stockpiling Tamiflu and boost monitoring at 800 hospitals, Reuters reported state media as saying yesterday.

With Ruth Pollard
 

NoCarrier

Membership Revoked
chairborne commando said:
Do 10 people an epidemic make?

Where did you get your numbers? The "nine more people" is not the final count. More people were already hospitalised.
 

NoCarrier

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Indonesia on brink of bird flu epidemic

http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,16677899%5E954,00.html

FEARS of a possibly uncontrollable bird flu outbreak were sweeping Indonesia last night after the Government warned of a potential epidemic.

Scientists tried to determine whether a five-year-old girl died from the virus in a Jakarta hospital, where six other Indonesians are being treated as possible bird flu patients.

Expatriates and Indonesians rushed to buy vaccine as stocks dwindled. Some major Jakarta clinics said they had none. Australia's embassy in Jakarta told Australians living in Indonesia, or planning to visit, to obtain vaccine supplies as a precaution.

In Jakarta, Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said there was a danger avian influenza in the country of 220 million people could reach epidemic levels.

But, in a bid to prevent panic, Ms Supari said it would be wrong to describe the virus as a "frightening epidemic". So far, Indonesia has confirmed four bird flu deaths. Tests are being conducted on the dead girl to determine if she was its fifth victim.

Overall, 64 people in four Asian countries are known to have died from the H5N1 strain of bird flu since late 2003. The strain has also spread to Russia and Europe.

The World Health Organisation this week warned a global pandemic would be virtually impossible to stop if the virus mutated to a form which could easily jump between humans.

In Jakarta, a spokeswoman for the Australian embassy said expatriates registered with the mission were being advised to buy a supply of bird flu vaccine.

"We urge Australians to look at the travel warnings," she said.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has placed government departments on "extraordinary" alert, outlining a plan to isolate infected areas and to deal with poultry.

The plan directed 44 public hospitals to treat avian influenza patients. It also allowed patients with symptoms of the disease to be forcibly admitted to hospitals.

Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyanto said infected areas were still being identified but, once they were pinpointed, a mass cull of poultry would be carried out.

"If we declare one area highly infected, we are going to do a mass slaughter," he said.

Officials have previously rejected international calls for a mass cull, warning that its cash-strapped government did not have enough money to compensate poultry farmers.
 

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Expert: U.S. Bird Flu Pandemic Would Kill Millions

http://www.news4jax.com/health/5001370/detail.html


Indonesia Plans To Cull Large Number Of Chickens

POSTED: 10:50 am EDT September 21, 2005

WASHINGTON -- An infectious disease expert said a doomsday scenario is awaiting the nation if it experiences an avian flu pandemic.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, who leads the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, said a bird flu pandemic in the United States could claim many more lives than Hurricane Katrina.

So far, avian flu has killed about 60 humans in Asia, while being mostly restricted to birds. But experts expect the virus to change enough to spread from human to human. Osterholm said it would likely claim around 1.7 million Americans in the first year as vaccine was slowly produced.

Osterholm said avian flu has caught the government's attention. President George W. Bush mentioned it earlier this week, saying the nation "needs to be mindful of this potentially devastating disease."

The World Health Organization warns the virus could mutate into a form that can easily spread among humans.

Indonesia's health minister warned Wednesday that a bird flu epidemic is possible, even as the government tries to calm public fears after the death of a 5-year-old girl.

If the girl had the disease, she would be the fifth victim of the current outbreak in Indonesia. Test results are expected later this week. Agriculture officials have announced plans to kill large numbers of chickens in the infected areas.

The health minister told The Associated Press the current outbreaks are "sporadic" but could become epidemic. She said five other people suspected of having the virus have been admitted to Jakarta's infectious diseases hospital.

Bird flu has killed at least 63 people in Asia since 2003.
 
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