H5N1 makes a New Mile Stone - Human to Human transfer
- Thread starter The Flying Dutchman
- Start date
Grock,
"stick with the facts" is something I'd like too. Fact is ALL flu's start out in animal populations as natural recombinations. So when something like H5N1 spreads in bird populations that is the first step in the natural development of this virus into a human contagion.
The second step is that the virus mutates and becomes able to infect humans from the animal host population. That is currently happening. We really do not know the mortality rate, since we do not know who is infected and how many of them are dying due to the disease. But the hemoragic nature of the symptoms of those who are dying is alarming.
As the virus recombines in the animal host population with other human to human contagious virii, these new recombinations will certainly spread among people.
Those are the facts of how animal hosted influenza becomes humanly transmissible influenza.
The H5N1 is a new influenza to the human population, hence the N1 designation. That means that we have no naturalize immunities to this type of flu. Very similar to the situation with the so called 'spanish flu' back in 1917-19. The results of THAT pandemic are factual and rather unsettling.
We are in the process of watching this flu transform itself into a major human epidemic.
If you choose to nay-say, siting that facts are what you need, than you have the facts. Sure, some people tend to overreact. But this is a real situation. We are here to discuss the possible paths things like this can take. We are here to discuss what we as individuals could do to prepare for the outcomes of various pathways. That's what this board is about.
"stick with the facts" is something I'd like too. Fact is ALL flu's start out in animal populations as natural recombinations. So when something like H5N1 spreads in bird populations that is the first step in the natural development of this virus into a human contagion.
The second step is that the virus mutates and becomes able to infect humans from the animal host population. That is currently happening. We really do not know the mortality rate, since we do not know who is infected and how many of them are dying due to the disease. But the hemoragic nature of the symptoms of those who are dying is alarming.
As the virus recombines in the animal host population with other human to human contagious virii, these new recombinations will certainly spread among people.
Those are the facts of how animal hosted influenza becomes humanly transmissible influenza.
The H5N1 is a new influenza to the human population, hence the N1 designation. That means that we have no naturalize immunities to this type of flu. Very similar to the situation with the so called 'spanish flu' back in 1917-19. The results of THAT pandemic are factual and rather unsettling.
We are in the process of watching this flu transform itself into a major human epidemic.
If you choose to nay-say, siting that facts are what you need, than you have the facts. Sure, some people tend to overreact. But this is a real situation. We are here to discuss the possible paths things like this can take. We are here to discuss what we as individuals could do to prepare for the outcomes of various pathways. That's what this board is about.
Indiansummer
Inactive
Since virus can recombine DNA, to cross species borders, can they also not become more deadly once they have developed a human to human transmission? Just wondering, since it was mentioned that this has already begun to occur in VN, in a less deadly form.
Doesn't it just seem really inconvenient that we have all these dead microbiologists, have dug up the dead from the 1918 flu to harvest and study that virus, and now have no immunization because of the bird/egg factor? Wow. My conspiracy ticker is racing.
Doesn't it just seem really inconvenient that we have all these dead microbiologists, have dug up the dead from the 1918 flu to harvest and study that virus, and now have no immunization because of the bird/egg factor? Wow. My conspiracy ticker is racing.
Fair use.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09290501/H5N1_Samerang_Cluster.html
H5N1 Cluster in Samerang Raises Phase 5 Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary
September 29, 2005
The taking of the sample of blood was carried out because of two children Suwadi, Faisal Paradise (15) and the daughter Sulistyowati (18 months), died without being known by his cause. Now one child Suwadi other, Nur Aidy (8), was reported was sick.
The above machine translation describes a family cluster in Demak, Central Java. Three children in the Suwadi family have now died or have symptoms. The index case, 15 year-old Faisal Paradise showed symptoms on September 15 and died September 20. 18 month old, Sulistiwadi died four days later. Now 8 year old, Nur Aidy is showing bird flu symptoms. The family's chickens had recently died. The time gap between the deaths of the two siblings and the disease onset of the third sibling suggests human-to-human transmission.
Nur Aidy has been transferred from Wedung Community Health Center to RS Kariadi in Semarang. Another patient, 58 year-old Suprat, was also transferred to RS Kariadi. He is a chicken vendor and began to show bird flu symptoms about a week ago. The cluster of H5N1 bird flu cases is shown on the Indonesia map.
The clustering of cases is cause for concern. Three family members with bird flu symptoms suggest human-to-human transmission of a virulent H5N1. Moreover, the hospitalization of the chicken trader from the same area causes additional concerns. This cluster is far from the much larger cluster in Jakarta (see map). Yesterday, a child was just admitted who's mother had been hospitalized after a visit to the Ragunan Zoo where there was massive H5N1 infections in asymptomatic birds on exhibit. Now the zoo in Semarang is also H5N1 positive raising the possibility of another large cluster due to casual contact.
These growing clusters, and clusters of clusters, signal a pandemic phase 5, which is getting close to the final phase 6.
Phases discussed in this thread:
http://70.97.123.20/vb/showthread.php?t=167491
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09290501/H5N1_Samerang_Cluster.html
H5N1 Cluster in Samerang Raises Phase 5 Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary
September 29, 2005
The taking of the sample of blood was carried out because of two children Suwadi, Faisal Paradise (15) and the daughter Sulistyowati (18 months), died without being known by his cause. Now one child Suwadi other, Nur Aidy (8), was reported was sick.
The above machine translation describes a family cluster in Demak, Central Java. Three children in the Suwadi family have now died or have symptoms. The index case, 15 year-old Faisal Paradise showed symptoms on September 15 and died September 20. 18 month old, Sulistiwadi died four days later. Now 8 year old, Nur Aidy is showing bird flu symptoms. The family's chickens had recently died. The time gap between the deaths of the two siblings and the disease onset of the third sibling suggests human-to-human transmission.
Nur Aidy has been transferred from Wedung Community Health Center to RS Kariadi in Semarang. Another patient, 58 year-old Suprat, was also transferred to RS Kariadi. He is a chicken vendor and began to show bird flu symptoms about a week ago. The cluster of H5N1 bird flu cases is shown on the Indonesia map.
The clustering of cases is cause for concern. Three family members with bird flu symptoms suggest human-to-human transmission of a virulent H5N1. Moreover, the hospitalization of the chicken trader from the same area causes additional concerns. This cluster is far from the much larger cluster in Jakarta (see map). Yesterday, a child was just admitted who's mother had been hospitalized after a visit to the Ragunan Zoo where there was massive H5N1 infections in asymptomatic birds on exhibit. Now the zoo in Semarang is also H5N1 positive raising the possibility of another large cluster due to casual contact.
These growing clusters, and clusters of clusters, signal a pandemic phase 5, which is getting close to the final phase 6.
Phases discussed in this thread:
http://70.97.123.20/vb/showthread.php?t=167491
Attachments
Indiansummer said:Since virus can recombine DNA, to cross species borders, can they also not become more deadly once they have developed a human to human transmission? Just wondering, since it was mentioned that this has already begun to occur in VN, in a less deadly form.
Doesn't it just seem really inconvenient that we have all these dead microbiologists, have dug up the dead from the 1918 flu to harvest and study that virus, and now have no immunization because of the bird/egg factor? Wow. My conspiracy ticker is racing.
Slow your conspiracy ticker down... H5N1 has been around since 1997 when it was discovered in Hong Kong. It has been followed since. All indications point to this virus evolving in the wild.
Just a point on the virus becoming more deadly: the more deadly the virus becomes, the better for the human race. When a virus kills quickly and efficiently, it lessens the chance that it can be spread throughout a population. What you don't want to see happen is the opposite: becoming more efficient at transmission by lowering the mortality rate. This would result in the virus spreading across a broad spectrum of the human population.
Ironhand
Inactive
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9355852/
From the Bird Flu Basics:
"In rural areas, the H5N1 virus is easily spread from farm to farm among domestic poultry through the feces of wild birds. The virus can survive for up to four days at 71 F (22 C) and more than 30 days at 32 F (0 C). If frozen, it can survive indefinitely.
So far in this outbreak, human cases have been blamed on direct contact with infected chickens and their droppings. People who catch the virus from birds can pass it on to other humans, although the disease is generally milder in those who caught it from an infected person rather than from birds.
If the virus mutates and combines with a human influenza virus, it could be spread through person-to-person transmission in the same way the ordinary human flu virus is spread."
From this article alone it would appear that it CAN spread from human to human, but that is hasn't mutated yet. If our luck holds, it'll wait til TPTB can come up with a vaccine, otherwise could become a pandemic that could rival the 1918 spanish flu. JMHO
From the Bird Flu Basics:
"In rural areas, the H5N1 virus is easily spread from farm to farm among domestic poultry through the feces of wild birds. The virus can survive for up to four days at 71 F (22 C) and more than 30 days at 32 F (0 C). If frozen, it can survive indefinitely.
So far in this outbreak, human cases have been blamed on direct contact with infected chickens and their droppings. People who catch the virus from birds can pass it on to other humans, although the disease is generally milder in those who caught it from an infected person rather than from birds.
If the virus mutates and combines with a human influenza virus, it could be spread through person-to-person transmission in the same way the ordinary human flu virus is spread."
From this article alone it would appear that it CAN spread from human to human, but that is hasn't mutated yet. If our luck holds, it'll wait til TPTB can come up with a vaccine, otherwise could become a pandemic that could rival the 1918 spanish flu. JMHO
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Thanks for all your efforts Shakey and everyone else researching and posting here!
I just searched for "Dengue Fever" using Google News and find that:
There is wide spread fatalities in SE Asia attributed to epidemics of dengue fever.
The diagnosis of H5N1 has been misdiagnosed in at least one case as dengue fever.
Dengue fever is said to be spread by mosquito.
There are more incidences of dengue fever in SE Asia than for H5N1 - it appears to my limited understanding that a confirmed diagnosis of H5N1 requires sophisticated and expensive lab testing.
Based on the above - It appears that the incidence of H5N1 is widely under reported and hasnt been sufficiently addressed at the local levels.
Also note Senator Bill Frist and the UN have recently issued warnings of a global avian flu pandemic.
I just searched for "Dengue Fever" using Google News and find that:
There is wide spread fatalities in SE Asia attributed to epidemics of dengue fever.
The diagnosis of H5N1 has been misdiagnosed in at least one case as dengue fever.
Dengue fever is said to be spread by mosquito.
There are more incidences of dengue fever in SE Asia than for H5N1 - it appears to my limited understanding that a confirmed diagnosis of H5N1 requires sophisticated and expensive lab testing.
Based on the above - It appears that the incidence of H5N1 is widely under reported and hasnt been sufficiently addressed at the local levels.
Also note Senator Bill Frist and the UN have recently issued warnings of a global avian flu pandemic.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
As to the conspiracy angle, well it is a fact that "they" did dig up the frozen corpses of deceased Spanish flu victims in order to get live virus for "research" a few years back. That is a fact. Now what person in their right mind would do this, except for bio war research, is beyond me.
Whether the Bird flu is man made, natural or just "assisted" it still is coming. Human to human transmission is the last barrier of the dike.
As New Orleans showed our cities on a global basis are full of diseased, weak and vulnerable people. Yes, the 1918 flu was aided by the chaos of WW1. And no doubt this one will be aided by the chaos of the Tsunami in Indonesia, the chaos in Africa and most importantly, global transport.
A biological Tsunami for sure is what the man called it. For sure. Five minutes of shaking, a new plague and modern life ends.
Whether the Bird flu is man made, natural or just "assisted" it still is coming. Human to human transmission is the last barrier of the dike.
As New Orleans showed our cities on a global basis are full of diseased, weak and vulnerable people. Yes, the 1918 flu was aided by the chaos of WW1. And no doubt this one will be aided by the chaos of the Tsunami in Indonesia, the chaos in Africa and most importantly, global transport.
A biological Tsunami for sure is what the man called it. For sure. Five minutes of shaking, a new plague and modern life ends.
Martin,
What do you make of the following:
Commentary
.
Dengue Fever Misdaignosis of Fatal H5N1Case Causes Concern
Recombinomics Commentary
September 26, 2005
Not old at intervals of, Karwati again cut off one chicken and only was eaten by his family. Further was reported Karwati on Monday September 19 experienced the fever. Because never recovered, Karwati was brought to RS Medika Cikarang that was located around 1 km from his house.
"He entered RS Medika on Tuesday morning." Initially Karwati was diagnosed suffered typhus. Afterwards vomited blood and the nosebleed, afterwards were diagnosed by dengue fever. However when tell about chronological before Karwati was sick, the RS side at once reconciled RSPI Sulianti Saroso, he said.
The above machine translation indicates that the latest confirmed H5N1 fatality was initially misdiagnosed as having dengue fever. She was transferred to Sulianti Saraos because she had eaten a bird that had died suddenly. Thus, had that history not been revealed, or if the bird appeared healthy because of an asymptomatic H5N1 infection, it is likely that the H5N1 would have been recorded as another dengue fever death in Indonesia. Thus far this year Indonesia has recorded 538 fatalities from dengue fever.
The entire area is reporting unusually high number of cases of dengue fever. The Philippines has recorded 259 dengue fever deaths.
Last year the index case of human-to-human transmission in Thailand was diagnosed as dengue fever because she vomited blood and had a nose bleed. She fatally infected her mother, who was H5N1 positive. Her aunt was also H5N1 positive.
The confusion of pandemic influenza with dengue fever was also seen in the 1918 flu pandemic. Many patients had internal bleeding and bleeding under this skin. This led to mis-diagnosis of dengue fever, typhoid, and cholera.
The spread of H5N1 in Indonesia suggests monitoring efforts in the region are far from adequate. Indonesia now has 10 acknowledged H5N1 cases. Six have died and one has been discharged. Two are in South Sulaweto, indicating H5N1 in humans has spread far and wide.
The number of H5N1 cases in Indonesia and the area in general is unknown because of the lack of H5N1 testing combined with false negatives. Indeed, only one of the three family members in Tangerang is an official H5N1 cases, although all three clearly died from H5N1 infections.
An increased screening of patients is long overdue, and the latest fatality should make it clear that the number of H5N1 case misdiagnosed as dengue fever may be very large.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09260502/H5N1_Jakarta_Dengue.html
What do you make of the following:
Commentary
.
Dengue Fever Misdaignosis of Fatal H5N1Case Causes Concern
Recombinomics Commentary
September 26, 2005
Not old at intervals of, Karwati again cut off one chicken and only was eaten by his family. Further was reported Karwati on Monday September 19 experienced the fever. Because never recovered, Karwati was brought to RS Medika Cikarang that was located around 1 km from his house.
"He entered RS Medika on Tuesday morning." Initially Karwati was diagnosed suffered typhus. Afterwards vomited blood and the nosebleed, afterwards were diagnosed by dengue fever. However when tell about chronological before Karwati was sick, the RS side at once reconciled RSPI Sulianti Saroso, he said.
The above machine translation indicates that the latest confirmed H5N1 fatality was initially misdiagnosed as having dengue fever. She was transferred to Sulianti Saraos because she had eaten a bird that had died suddenly. Thus, had that history not been revealed, or if the bird appeared healthy because of an asymptomatic H5N1 infection, it is likely that the H5N1 would have been recorded as another dengue fever death in Indonesia. Thus far this year Indonesia has recorded 538 fatalities from dengue fever.
The entire area is reporting unusually high number of cases of dengue fever. The Philippines has recorded 259 dengue fever deaths.
Last year the index case of human-to-human transmission in Thailand was diagnosed as dengue fever because she vomited blood and had a nose bleed. She fatally infected her mother, who was H5N1 positive. Her aunt was also H5N1 positive.
The confusion of pandemic influenza with dengue fever was also seen in the 1918 flu pandemic. Many patients had internal bleeding and bleeding under this skin. This led to mis-diagnosis of dengue fever, typhoid, and cholera.
The spread of H5N1 in Indonesia suggests monitoring efforts in the region are far from adequate. Indonesia now has 10 acknowledged H5N1 cases. Six have died and one has been discharged. Two are in South Sulaweto, indicating H5N1 in humans has spread far and wide.
The number of H5N1 cases in Indonesia and the area in general is unknown because of the lack of H5N1 testing combined with false negatives. Indeed, only one of the three family members in Tangerang is an official H5N1 cases, although all three clearly died from H5N1 infections.
An increased screening of patients is long overdue, and the latest fatality should make it clear that the number of H5N1 case misdiagnosed as dengue fever may be very large.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09260502/H5N1_Jakarta_Dengue.html
squeeksmom
Deceased
Thank you for all of your effort, Shakey! I don't say much, but I read and learn from all of your posts.
squeeks
squeeks
Thank you Shakey and everyone for your insight on this topic.
I recently started reading Flu : The Story Of The Great Influenza Pandemic
by Gina Kolata. If H5N1 is anything like the Spanish Flu once it starts H2H transmission, we are toast unless we isolate ourselves. Sometimes people died from the Spanish flu in a matter of hours or just a couple days. IMHO, if H5N1 = Spanish flu severerity in the massive systemic response to the virus, it's not likely that Tamiflu or Sambucol will have an effect. That being said, I have sambucol on hand just in case.
m801 said:
I recently started reading Flu : The Story Of The Great Influenza Pandemic
by Gina Kolata. If H5N1 is anything like the Spanish Flu once it starts H2H transmission, we are toast unless we isolate ourselves. Sometimes people died from the Spanish flu in a matter of hours or just a couple days. IMHO, if H5N1 = Spanish flu severerity in the massive systemic response to the virus, it's not likely that Tamiflu or Sambucol will have an effect. That being said, I have sambucol on hand just in case.
eens
Nuns with Guns
I just went to the library and borrowed a video, Influenza 1918 and ordered another one from another library, Secrets of the Dead IV, Killer Flu.
I haven't watched it yet but I don't have time to fit in another book right now so I thought this would help educate me on this subject, I'll let you know.
I haven't watched it yet but I don't have time to fit in another book right now so I thought this would help educate me on this subject, I'll let you know.