Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

TxGal

Day by day
More Climate Backtracking: "A Warming Arctic Drove Earth Into The Little Ice Age" - Electroverse


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Articles Extreme Weather GSM

MORE CLIMATE BACKTRACKING: “A WARMING ARCTIC DROVE EARTH INTO THE LITTLE ICE AGE”
JANUARY 19, 2022 CAP ALLON

They’re acting like this is new news, as if nobody had ever thought of it before: ‘Scientists Discover A Warming Arctic Drove Earth Into The Little Ice Age’. They’re even calling it “surprising”.

As reported by MSN, following an era known as the medieval warm period–so that did exist then…?–temperatures in Europe in the early 15th century plunged in what has become known as The Little Ice Age (LIA).

This remarkable multicentennial period of cold brought increased glaciation to the mountains, an expansion of sea ice, crop failures, famines and disease across the European continent. Flip-flopping summers –with extremes at both ends of the spectrum– were chased by brutally harsh winters, during which rivers and canals routinely froze over. In the UK, for example, the first River Thames “frost fair” was held in 1608, and was an almost annual occurrence until the last one in 1814–so before the AGW Party’s proposed date for the start of the industrial revolution (≈1880) when global temperatures supposedly began climbing due to increasing CO2 emissions …[one day we’ll laugh]…

There are, as there should be and as is healthy, numerous potential explanations for what caused temperatures to plummet during the LIA. Top of the list are heightened levels of volcanic activity, reduced solar activity, and even the impact of the black death reducing the human population–Bill Gates’ fave.

But scientists at the University of Massachusetts believe they have found a “new” key factor in why temperatures plunged to their coldest in 10,000 years–and they’re pretending like it hasn’t already been covered by ‘alternative’ outlets for years: “Surprisingly,” the researchers say, “the cooling appears to have been triggered by an unusually warm episode.”

The “discovery” came after Lead author Francois Lapointe, a postdoctoral researcher and lecturer in geosciences at the University of Massachusetts, and Raymond Bradley, distinguished professor in geosciences, also at the University of Massachusetts, came across new data suggesting a rapid change in sea temperatures.

Their previous work, which built a 3,000-year reconstruction of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, revealed a sudden change from very warm conditions in the late 1300s to unprecedented cold conditions in the early 1400s, only 20 years later.

Using various sources to obtain detailed marine records, Dr Lapointe and Professor Bradley discovered there had been an abnormally strong northward transfer of warm water in the late 1300s which peaked around 1380. As a result, the waters south of Greenland and the Nordic Seas became much warmer than usual.
“No one has recognized this before,” said Dr Lapointe…!?

The researchers explained that there is a transfer of warm water from the tropics to the Arctic. It’s a well-recognized process called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can be likened to a planetary conveyor belt. When it is functioning normally, warm water from the tropics flows north along the coast of Northern Europe, and when it reaches higher latitudes and meets colder Arctic waters, it loses heat and becomes denser, causing the water to sink. This deep-water formation then flows south along the coast of North America and continues on to circulate around the world.

AMOC
This topographic map shows the schematic circulation of surface currents (solid curves) and deep currents (dashed curves) of the Atlantic Ocean, which form a portion of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The colors of the curves indicate approximate temperatures.

However, in the late 1300s, the AMOC strengthened significantly, which meant that far more warm water than usual was moving north, which in turn caused rapid Arctic ice loss. Over the course of just a few decades in the late 1300s and early 1400s, vast amounts of icy waters flowed into the North Atlantic, waters that not only cooled the North Atlantic, but also diluted its saltiness, ultimately causing the AMOC to collapse. It is this collapse of the conveyor belt which triggered the substantial cooling suffered in Europe, the researchers said.

Worryingly, a startling-similar process appears to be underway today (there’s something amiss with The Beaufort Gyre, too).
In recent decades, particularly during the the 1960s and 1980s, we’ve witnessed a rapid strengthening of the AMOC, a phenomenon linked with the persistently high pressure in the atmosphere over Greenland. Dr Lapointe and Professor Bradley believe that what’s playing out now is the same atmospheric situation that occurred just prior to the Little Ice Age. But what could have set off that persistent high-pressure event in the 1380s? The answer, according to Dr Lapointe, can be found in trees.

The researchers compared their findings to a new record of solar activity revealed by radiocarbon isotopes preserved in tree rings, and discovered that unusually high solar activity was recorded in the late 1300s.

Increased solar activity tends to lead to high atmospheric pressure over Greenland. It also correlates with fewer volcanic eruptions, which means less ash is in the air — a cleaner atmosphere results in earth being more responsive to changes in solar output: “Hence the effect of high solar activity on the atmospheric circulation in the North-Atlantic was particularly strong,” said Dr Lapointe.

But this is where the MSN article fails to offer any honest answers and/or comparisons to today. It trips up, likely due it having to adhere to a dogmatic narrative and dutifully tow the AGW Party line in order to have any chance of being published.

The article goes on to suggest that there isn’t enough ice remaining in the Arctic to cause such an injection of cold water into the North Atlantic today–which is absurd; but then immediately contradicts itself with this quote from Dr Lapointe: “We do have to keep an eye on the build-up of freshwater in the Beaufort Sea which has increased by 40 per cent in the past two decades. … Climate models do not capture these events reliably and so we may be underestimating future ice loss from the ice sheet, with more freshwater entering the North Atlantic, potentially leading to a weakening or collapse of the AMOC.”

A collapse of the AMOC would plunge Europe and much of North America into ice age conditions almost overnight, and Dr Lapointe, at least to my mind, is a scientist warning of a genuine impending catastrophe–perhaps one about to be triggered by the release of The Beaufort Gyre, often referred to as the “ticking climate bomb”.

What the MSN article also fails to mention is that those dates cited as being the beginning of the modern strengthening of the AMOC (1960s through 1980s) were decades of extraordinarily high solar output –the highest in thousands of years, in fact– and which culminated in the end of the modern Grand Solar Maximum (2007-or-so), so adding further support to the theory.

Also not addressed is NASA’s longstanding research showing that while Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during prolonged bouts of low solar activity (such as today’s descent into the next Grand Solar Minimum, which likely commenced during Solar Cycle 24), not all regions experience the chill. As visualized in NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Reconstruction Map’ (shown below), areas such as the Arctic, Alaska and the North Atlantic actually warm during spells of otherwise ‘global’ cooling.


Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

The authors, whose research can be found in the journal Science Advances, conclude that there is now “an urgent need” for further research to address all these uncertainties.
Agreed.

One way or another, the COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING–likely in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

Crop Yield Decline Numbers for 2022 and How to Prepare (Denis Delaurier 3/5) - YouTube

Crop Yield Decline Numbers for 2022 and How to Prepare (Denis Delaurier 3/5)
9,192 views
Jan 19, 2022

View: https://youtu.be/_umqtGJ9lqU
Run time is 30:44

Synopsis provided:

David DuByne from ADAPT 2030 and Dennis DeLaurier from TheGSMPrepper talk about crop yield decline numbers from fertilizer and herbicide shortages with no till techniques for the fastest way to set up a garden and get your food readiness set up.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

Foods That Will Become Luxuries as Store Shelves Run Bare - YouTube

Foods That Will Become Luxuries as Store Shelves Run Bare
6,665 views
Premiered 7 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/XsSZaBPjvRQ
Run time is 12:22

Synopsis provided:

Looking to the past to see the future, vast empires were set up and maintained from cultivation and movement of spices and rare foods. So with China importing a vast quantity of the worlds output, ask yourself why at this time and now add in Tonga eruption, food production is not as stable as thought planet wide.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Sahara Sees Rare Snow; Thousands Stranded On Turkish Highways; Record Cold Grips Middle East; Record Snow To Continue In U.S.; + Hunga Tonga Eruption Revised Up To 39km (128,000ft)... - Electroverse

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Extreme Weather GSM Volcanic & Seismic Activity

SAHARA SEES RARE SNOW; THOUSANDS STRANDED ON TURKISH HIGHWAYS; RECORD COLD GRIPS MIDDLE EAST; RECORD SNOW TO CONTINUE IN U.S.; + HUNGA TONGA ERUPTION REVISED UP TO 39KM (128,000FT)…
JANUARY 20, 2022 CAP ALLON

SAHARA SEES RARE SNOW

Saharan sand dunes have been coated in a rare dusting of snow this week, and temperatures have plunged to -2C (28.4F) near the town of Ain Sefra, located in northeast Algeria.

This section of the Sahara has witnessed snow before, due to it being surrounded by the Atlas Mountains, but only on a handful of occasions — just five times in the last 43 years, in fact: in 1979, 2016, 2018, 2021 and now 2022.

The flakes created stunning patterns in the sand, as captured by local photographer Karim Bouchetata:


Temperatures fell to -2C (35.6F) [Karim Bouchetta].


Sahara Desert snow [Karim Bouchetta].

Bouchetata also took pictures of the Sahara snow in January last year, when sheep and camels were seen standing on the snowy dunes as temperatures dipped to -3C (26.6F).

Back in 2016, during the first Sahara snow for 37 years, enough settled to allow children to build snowmen and even sledged down the dunes. Two years later, the desert was blanketed by a whopping 18 inches after a freak winter storm hit. The flakes made a return in 2021. And then again this year, too.

Low solar activity is causing weather patterns to shift (via the weakening of the jet streams, among other mechanisms). And northern Africa is seeing this first hand. There is a greening underway across the region as more moisture is ‘funneled in’ — the return of winter snow in recent years is evidence of this.

View: https://twitter.com/TheAfrican_Hub/status/1483867994853892096

THOUSANDS STRANDED ON TURKISH HIGHWAYS

Turkey has been wrapped by blizzards this week, with weather woes reported across the majority of the country’s 81 provinces. The Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) said 722 roads to towns and villages in Bolu, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaraş, Artvin and Bingöl have been closed– but the situation hasn’t been much better in the cities…

Thousands of vehicles were stranded on a key highway connecting Turkey’s southern provinces as heavy snowfall swept in Tuesday and Wednesday. In total, some 4,580 people on the Tarsus-Adana-Gaziantep Motorway (TAG) had to be evacuated in bitterly cold conditions. Around 186 of those were in need of medical care, and so were promptly taken to nearby hospitals.

Clearing crews distributed food to an additional 7,000 people on the highway.

Social media was soon flooded with photos and videos, and of people requesting help.

View: https://twitter.com/KWTWeather/status/1483703966470967296
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View: https://twitter.com/Jafery0/status/1483566733172559881
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Temperatures in Gaziantep dipped to -3C (26.6F) early Wednesday morning, and snow totals in the city center reached a record-breaking 50+cm (19.7+ inches).

With the roads jammed in and around the city, thousands of people were forced to abandon their cars and walk to safety:

View: https://twitter.com/KWTWeather/status/1483761148252110849
Run time 0:13

Mercifully, the snow in Gaziantep ceased on Wednesday, but roads and streets were still blanketed in powder and caked in ice, and the power was out in many neighborhoods.

To help, the Turkish military dispatched helicopters to some sections of the highway, delivering food and fuel to the stranded motorists that remained. Tow trucks were also sent by the army to assist in freeing stuck vehicles.

View: https://twitter.com/GreenPlanetMag1/status/1483829740327030786
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In total, 161 bulldozers, snow plows and other heavy duty equipment were sent to clear the road.

View: https://twitter.com/MeteoredUK/status/1483762151579963393
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Heavy snow also left hundreds of vehicles stranded on the Akseki-Seydişehir highway, which connects the Mediterranean province of Antalya to the central province of Konya — and as in Gaziantep, crews were delivering food to stranded motorists.

This is the story across the majority of Turkey this week (see below videos) where unprecedented snow continues to disrupt life, including forcing school closures in 52 (of 81) provinces on Wednesday.

View: https://twitter.com/usmani77/status/1483756591262359556
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View: https://twitter.com/GreenPlanetMag1/status/1483783653058834432
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View: https://youtu.be/otOEz3mVEcM
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Turkish State Meteorology Services (TSMS) warned that exceptional snowfall will persist for many through the remainder of the week. As will the cold — a low of -39.7C (-39.5F) were logged in the village of Bezirhane, Caldiran district, Van Province on Jan 18, which is exceptionally cold, especially for Turkey:

View: https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1483387886267518977

RECORD COLD GRIP THE MIDDLE EAST

To Turkey’s east, record cold has been gripping a number of countries, including Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel and Jordon.

In the Lebanese mountains, lows touched -27C.

In Erbil, northern Iraq, historically low readings of -15C have been reported (as has heavy snow–see below tweet); while in the Iraq’s lower elevations, a reading of –4.7C has been noted in Kirkuk, and a rare -2C in Baghdad.

View: https://twitter.com/RubaAlHassani/status/1483377015554195458

Extreme lows of around -23C have been reported in the Iranian mountains; and a low of –27.4C in Saqqez, Kurdistan province–where people are reportedly suffering life-threatening conditions.

In Damask, Syria, -8C was observed on Jan 18 — an incredible feat.

Beer Sheva, Israel is also reporting rare frosts, and the country has just hit a record demand for power.

While in Jordan, according to the below tweet, record low temps have been suffered, with Safawi -for example- dropping to -5C.

View: https://twitter.com/jordannewsdaily/status/1483469230368452612

Mountains along the eastern Mediterranean coast have been hit by severe blizzards in recent days.

And finally, looking further east, Turaif in Saudi Arabia reported an anomalous -6C; with Makkah, also in Saudi Arabia, registering a very low daily maximum of just 24C.

View: https://twitter.com/h7osam7/status/1483376111371403264
Run time is 0:29

Forecasts suggest the Middle East’s anomalously-wintry conditions could persist until the end of February.
Below is a look at the region’s temperature anomalies for Feb 1:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Feb 1 [tropicaltidbits.com].

RECORD SNOW TO CONTINUE IN U.S.

Following the record snowfall over the past week, much of the U.S. is set to be clattered by another Arctic blast with snow and ice forecast for huge swathes of the country.

Another large winter storm is set to sweep up from the Southeast through parts of the Midwest and East Coast, according to The Weather Channel. In response, the National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches covering many states, including New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and Texas.

Most winter storm warnings begin Thursday morning or afternoon. And they come just days after winter storm Izzy dropped a foot or more of snow in several northern states after also slamming the Southeast.
Below are the latest GFS runs.

They show anomalous cold gripping much of the CONUS through Thursday, with readings easily dipping as much as 16-20C below the seasonal average:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Thurs, Jan 20 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The snow, as mentioned above, will also be noteworthy, and not only for the east — the west will also cop another sizable dusting, adding to the record monthly accumulations registered in December.


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Jan 20 – Feb 5 [tropicaltidbits.com].

All this snow is also adding to Northern Hemisphere’s Total Snow Mass, which, as of the latest data point (Jan 18), is tracking some 400+ Gigatons above the 1982-2012 average:


[FMI]

HUNGA TONGA ERUPTION REVISED UP TO 39KM (128,000FT)

And finally, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai’s eruption of Jan 15 has been revised up, all-but confirming it as a VEI 5.
Based on preliminary satellite data from global weather radars, the estimated height of the eruption column reached an altitude of 39km (128,000 ft), which, if confirmed, would make it the highest eruption in modern times.

Such a stratospheric injection of particulates is expected to cool the planet by around 0.3C, lasting a period of 12-18 months.

Latest Himawari-8 satellite imagery of SO2 concentrations in the atmosphere reveal that the aerosol plume is now extending over the Indian Ocean, advancing towards eastern Africa:

View: https://twitter.com/andrewmiskelly/status/1483603946006781952

It will still be weeks before the final rating of the eruption is in, but a mid-range VEI 5 designation is highly probable.

This would make Hunga Tonga’s explosion one of the largest since Mount Tambora’s VEI 7 back in 1815, which resulted in ‘The Year Without A Summer’ during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830). It would also rank it just behind Pinatubo’s large VEI 5 blast of 1991, which is thought to have cooled the planet by approx. 0.5 to 0.6C.

Stay tuned for updates on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai — the data is still coming in.

One way or another, the COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING–likely in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Nashville's Snowiest Jan Since 1985; Mississauga Records Most Snow Since 1944; Four Die In Rare Canada To U.S. Border Crossing Attempt; Ice-Covered Streets In St. Petersburg; + Three-Quarters Of Japan Below Freezing - Electroverse

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Extreme Weather GSM

NASHVILLE’S SNOWIEST JAN SINCE 1985; MISSISSAUGA RECORDS MOST SNOW SINCE 1944; FOUR DIE IN RARE CANADA TO U.S. BORDER CROSSING ATTEMPT; ICE-COVERED STREETS IN ST. PETERSBURG; + THREE-QUARTERS OF JAPAN BELOW FREEZING
JANUARY 21, 2022 CAP ALLON

NASHVILLE’S SNOWIEST JAN SINCE 1985

So far this month, Nashville, Tennessee has received 9.3 inches (23.6cm) of snow, which makes it the city’s snowiest January since 1985 (solar minimum of cycle 21) with 10 days left to run.

This is far above the National Weather Service’s 30-year average of 4.7 inches (11.4cm).

Also, Jan 1985 was considered one of the ‘big months’ for snow during that decade — a total of 9.8 inches fell.

View: https://twitter.com/katymorganwx/status/1483994431699275777

MISSISSAUGA RECORDS MOST SNOW SINCE 1944

The 45cm (17.7 inches) that dumped on Mississauga on Monday was the area’s highest single day snow total since 1944 (back during the solar minimum of cycle 17, when the city was known as ‘Toronto Township’).

The winter storm slammed much of southern Ontario, and it busted a host of records across the province.

Regarding Mississauga’s snowfall, Mayor Bonnie Crombie praised the city’s winter maintenance crews: “It was truly an all-hands-on-deck effort,” Crombie said, also noting that no major roads ended up having to close despite “the historic storm”.

Still, and as reported by insauga.com, many residents across the city became stranded in their homes by huge windrows of hard, chunky snow and ice that blocked many driveways and residential courts. Windrows are the collections of snow left at the bottom of driveways, and sometimes at the entrance to streets and courts, after snow plows clear the main part of the street.

View: https://twitter.com/citymississauga/status/1484186529190879237

Ward 3 Councillor Chris Fonseca, who tabled a Mississauga City council emergency motion which passed snow clearing operations to not only tackle main roads but secondary roads, too, said many residents were “just beside themselves” and couldn’t get out of their homes or their streets.

Mickey Frost, the City’s director of works operations and maintenance, said Mississauga deployed hundreds of snow-clearing vehicles in the wake of the major winter blast. But after another, albeit smaller snowstorm hit Tuesday, snow plows were pulled from neighborhood roads and sent back to the city’s major routes, compounding the exasperation of some trapped locals.

Staying in Canada, after two rounds of accumulating snow hit Montreal this week, temperatures plummeted and the region is suffering some of its coldest readings in years.

The overnight low Thursday night in Montreal is expected to drop to -29C (-20.2F). That would be a new record for the date, beating out the old benchmark of -27.5C (-17.5F) set in 2005. The last time Montreal saw a reading that cold (on any day of the year) was back on Jan 15, 2004 when the mercury touched -29.1C (-20.4F).

Looking ahead, a repeat performance is expected overnight Friday with forecasts once again calling for a low -29C (-20.2F). If that played out it would be a new record for Jan 22, besting the current record low of -28.3C (-18.9F) from 1976 (solar minimum of cycle 20).

January 2022 has been one of the coldest we’ve seen in a few years, reports montreal.ctvnews.ca.

So far, in the first 21 days of the month, the mercury has dropped into the -20s a total of nine times — a stark comparison to the last few years. Montreal dipped below -20C just once in Jan, 2021; and not at all in Jan, 2020. This year’s nine beats out 2018’s eight, but with 10-days of the month left to run, and with temps expected to drop into the -20s at least a handful more times, far older records are set to fall.

It’ll be even chillier in the nation’s capital with the low dropping into the -30s.

In response, Environment Canada has issued ‘extreme cold warnings’ for Ottawa.

FOUR DIE IN RARE CANADA TO U.S. BORDER CROSSING ATTEMPT

And in Manitoba, the bodies of four people, including a baby and a teen, were found near the United States border in what Mounties believe was a failed crossing attempt during a -35C (-31F) blizzard.

“It is an absolute and heartbreaking tragedy,” RCMP Assistant Commissioner Jane MacLatchy told a news conference Thursday.

It’s believed they died from exposure, she said.

Officers found three bodies together –a man, a woman and a baby– just 10 metres from the border. Their search continued and a teen boy was found a short distance away. They were wearing winter clothing, MacLatchy said, but with the frigid conditions it would not have been enough to save them: “These victims faced not only the cold weather but also endless fields, large snowdrifts and complete darkness,” added MacLatchy.

It is believed that the crossing attempt was an illegal one, perhaps brought about by Canada’s draconian COVID laws.
In the past, it has been far more common to see crossings northwards from the U.S. into Canada rather than the other way round, said MacLatchy.

Dave Carlson, Reeve of Emerson-Franklin (Reeve: an elected local official) said, “If you look at the political climate on both sides of the border, it’s just mind-boggling to me that anyone had that sense of desperation to try and cross in extreme conditions.”

Deputy Patrick Klegstad, with the Kittson County Sheriff’s Office in Minnesota, said his department is supporting the American side of the investigation. Klegstad echoed Canadian officials, saying it’s uncommon to have people make the journey from Canada into the U.S.: “It’s not very often we have southbounders.”

ICE-COVERED STREETS IN ST. PETERSBURG

St. Petersburg residents have seen the most ice coverage on their streets and sidewalks in many a moon this week.
As reported by themoscowtimes.com, hundreds of people have landed in hospital after slipping and falling, while local authorities face criticism for failing to deal with the situation.




Exceptionally cold conditions gripped St. Petersburg back in December, too.

As meteorologist Mikhail Leus documented at the time, the chill was so severe that all-time records were broken: “Today (Dec 6), St. Petersburg set a new daily cold weather record. Temperatures in the Northern Capital fell to minus 20.9 degrees, which is 0.4 degrees lower than on the same day back in 1893,” Leus wrote in a Facebook post.


THREE-QUARTERS OF JAPAN BELOW FREEZING

And finally, it was cold day in Japan yesterday, Jan 20, with ≈75% of the nation’s weather stations below 0C (32F) at 7AM.

As noted by Thierry Goose on Twitter, the coldest station was that at Sumarinai, Hokkaido with its low of -27.7C.

View: https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1484024921688739841

The widespread freeze comes as national power usage records were already falling as heating demand soars.

The cold also follows rounds of unprecedented snowfall in recent weeks, particularly in northern parts where snow records from 1893 have been falling:

View: https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/1475356245184114689


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
This is an important one from Adapt 2030:

How Much Global Crop Yield Will Be Lost From the Tonga Eruption - YouTube

How Much Global Crop Yield Will Be Lost From the Tonga Eruption
14,467 views
Premiered 20 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/lPiua6x1jNw
Run time is 14:10

Synopsis provided:

Reports are confirmed of average ash height at 128,000 ft and center plume of the Tonga eruption at 55KM or 180,000 ft, so now we can get a good idea of which countries and which crops are in mid-season that will have reduced production theses next two months. First of two parts looking at S. Hemisphere agriculture.
 

TxGal

Day by day
More on the eruption from The Oppenheimer Ranch Project:

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano: Plume May Have Reached 55 km Altitude - Ash Reaches The Africa - YouTube

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano: Plume May Have Reached 55 km Altitude - Ash Reaches The Africa
9,257 views
Premiered 7 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/gaA4BeIjg2g
Run time is 7:36

Synopsis provided:

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga) activity update: top of plume may have reached 55 km altitude https://bit.ly/3qUJwwZ
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga) activity update: SO2 plume reached Madagascar and East Africa today https://bit.ly/3fRy6n8
Volcanoes Cooling The Earth https://bit.ly/3tPRGII https://bit.ly/3fEsPzb
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga) activity update: shockwave reached its antipode https://bit.ly/3nSAsGP
OMPS Volcanic SO2 Image Archive https://go.nasa.gov/3430u2U
Partial communications have been restored on the islands of Tonga, allowing video of the Tsunami's aftermath to trickle in, almost all homes understood to be destroyed
https://bit.ly/3rGjcWu
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
I commented on this in another thread here at TBK I think yesterday but I'm going to make the comment again, this time regarding avian flu.

I've been reading a couple of books on various famines (many of which were politically based) throughout time and their connection to plague.

One of the conclusions I've drawn is that a good many people were getting sick and dying from the plague because they were eating infected animals, due to famine.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

Where South America Will Loose Crops from Tonga Eruption Ash (2/2) - YouTube

Where South America Will Loose Crops from Tonga Eruption Ash (2/2)
15,458 views
Premiered 16 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/e2oVIeXEvfo
Run time is 13:31

Synopsis provided:

Reports are confirmed of average ash height at 128,000 ft and center plume of the Tonga eruption at 55KM or 180,000 ft, so now we can get a good idea of which countries and which crops are in mid-season that will have reduced production these next two months. Second of two parts focusing on South America and S. Hemisphere agriculture losses into 2022.
 

TxGal

Day by day
At the end of the below article (not sure where it ends, really), 'Cap Allon,' the author, discusses difficulty he's having in being censored for writing on the GSM. I don't know how much longer he'll be able to write before he's blocked entirely.

U.S. In Grip Of Fierce Polar Plunge; Iran's Gas Consumption Hits Record High As Historic Cold And Snow Intensifies Across The Middle East; Russia Busts Snowfall Benchmarks; + Rare Flurries Hit Greece - Electroverse

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Extreme Weather GSM

U.S. IN GRIP OF FIERCE POLAR PLUNGE; IRAN’S GAS CONSUMPTION HITS RECORD HIGH AS HISTORIC COLD AND SNOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST; RUSSIA BUSTS SNOWFALL BENCHMARKS; + RARE FLURRIES HIT GREECE
JANUARY 24, 2022 CAP ALLON

U.S. IN GRIP OF FIERCE POLAR PLUNGE

Heavy snows and freezing lows nationwide continue to grip much of the United States.

Over the weekend, snowstorms caused travel disruptions for people in Georgia to the Carolinas, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland and southern New Jersey, and towns and cities across the East/Southeast were reporting record snowfall.

Charlotte, North Carolina, broke a 39-year-old record when 1.9 inches of snow fell, the National Weather Service reported Saturday. The city’s previous record for Jan 21 was set back in 1983 (solar minimum of cycle 21), when 0.5 inches settled.

Subfreezing temperatures left many roads icy, and traveling on them was not worth the risk, said Charlotte officials.

Snow is persisting some 210 miles to the south, in Charleston, SC, too, increasing what was already the city’s ninth snowiest Jan on record:

View: https://twitter.com/wxbrandon9/status/1485403093877542913
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In an elevated valley of northeast West Virginia on Saturday morning, 125 miles west of Washington, the temperature at a weather station in Canaan Valley plunged to -31F (-35C) — the coldest reading on record in that part of the state.

The weather station is managed by Virginia Tech at the Caanan Valley National Wildlife Refuge.

The previous lowest temperature measured there was the -27F on Jan 21, 1985 (solar minimum of cycle 21), according to Robert Leffler, a retired Nation Weather Service meteorologist, and as reported by the WP.

View: https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1485002683174068229

The weekend also delivered icy-cold winds to residents of Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, and widespread snow was observed Sunday as the frigid start to the year persisted.

View: https://twitter.com/chrisnallan/status/1485408731261280259

2022 is off to an extremely cold start east of the Mississippi, too.

Temperature in the Berkshires, for example, have held well below normal on 14 of this month’s first 23 days — the persistence of the Arctic air has actually led to this January being the coldest since 1994 (solar minimum of cycle 22), and with further formidable lows forecast throughout the coming week, particularly Tuesday night into Thursday, older benchmarks are set to be surpassed.


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Jan 25 – 26 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The models are also suggesting something fierce could be driving down during the first week of Feb:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Feb 6 – 7 [tropicaltidbits.com].

The snowfall will also continue:


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Jan 24 – Feb 9 [tropicaltidbits.com].

IRAN’S GAS CONSUMPTION HITS RECORD HIGH AS HISTORIC COLD AND SNOW INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST

Gas consumption in Iran hit a new record high over the weekend –with record cold and snow continuing to batter the Middle East— prompting the country’s oil minister to urge citizens to reduce usage and “wear warm clothing”.

Oil minister, Javad Owji, said on Sunday that with people’s cooperation gas consumption can be managed. He urged people to reduce usage so that “we can pass the next 10 days without any problem” after consumption at homes and industries hit 692 million cubic meters in the past 24 hours — a new record high.

This figure is expected to climb even further in the coming days, with Mohammadreza Joulaei, head of distribution at Iran’s National Gas Company, warning that even colder weather is on the way. Consumption is set to rise by another few million cubic meters per day as people crank up their heating to cope. “There are 28 million gas subscribers in the country,” said Joulaei, who went on to warn that industries such as petrochemicals and steel would face supply cuts so as to prioritize gas to households.

With a record cold spell currently gripping Iran and the resulting surge in heating demand, shortages of gas have become acute and the country has reverted back to burning dirtier fossil fuels in order to handle the higher load.

This is a scenario playing out across Europe, too, where a rushed, ill-conceived switch to renewables, combined with historically cold winter conditions are fueling an all-out energy crisis.

Iran is a case in point. The country has the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world but it is barely able to satisfy domestic demand. This is due to a decline in production thanks to a chronic lack of investments in an out-of-favor oil and gas sector due, in turn, to fears of a CO2-induced catastrophe. The ‘climate crisis’, at least to my mind, is one component of a controlled demolition of society–of Build Back Better–of The Great Reset. I don’t have any other argument for it.

View: https://twitter.com/stacyebeth/status/1485478708039364613
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Record amounts of snow are continuing to batter Afghanistan, too:

View: https://twitter.com/Brave_spirit81/status/1484547786565685248
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And in northern India, the story is very much the same, according to a recent report by hindustantimes.com.

Over the weekend, heavy, record breaking snow across the higher reaches of Himachal has brought life to a standstill, blocking more than 730 roads, including four national highways; shutting down more han 700 electricity transformers, mostly in Shimla, Lahaul-Spiti and Chamba, which has caused widespread power outages; and halting over 100 water supply systems.

Koksar and Sissu received 1.5 ft of snowfall over the weekend, where it is reportedly still coming down; Rohtang has seen 2 ft of snow, so far; while a whopping 6+ ft has been registered on Chandhal Peak.

View: https://twitter.com/prasadk2k/status/1485267159429582849

Staying in India, and as reported last week by indiainfrahub.com, this winter has already delivered the highest-ever snowfall in the history of Jammu and Kashmir, and temperatures have routinely sank to -30C (-22F).

RUSSIA BUSTS SNOWFALL BENCHMARKS

As was the case last winter, and the winter before, bone-chilling lows and record-busting snows are besieging large swathes of transcontinental Russia — and the MSM, as occurred in previous years, couldn’t care less.

Krasnodar is the largest city and capital of Krasnodar Krai–a federal subject, located in the North Caucasus region in Southern Russia.

As documented by Aleksander Onishchuk on Twitter (shown below), it has been snowing in the city non-stop for the past three days. As a result, school and work has been cancelled, and the air traffic disrupted due to “record snowdrifts”…

View: https://twitter.com/Brave_spirit81/status/1485531363000426499
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…snowdrifts that have added to the Northern Hemisphere’s well-above average total snow mass this season:


[FMI]

RARE FLURRIES HIT GREECE

And finally, Mykonos woke up on Sunday covered in snow — a rare event for the cosmopolitan Greek island.

Locals say that the last time this amount of snow fell on the Cyclades was “decades ago,” reports greekreporter.com.

View: https://twitter.com/daphnetoli/status/1485213585903075328
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Flakes even dusted the island’s famous beaches, such as Psarou, Super Paradise, and Elia:

Mykonos snow
The famous beaches of Mykonos coated in snow. [Greek Reporter/Stacey Papaioannou]

Snow has swept the majority of Aegean islands –an elongated embayment of the Mediterranean Sea located between Europe and Asia– which is an even rarer phenomenon.

View: https://twitter.com/savegreekmounts/status/1485151254724624386

On Friday, and in response to the region’s impending shot of cold, Greece’s National Meteorological Service issued an alert warning that heavy snow, strong winds and icy temperatures will persist Saturday though Wednesday, inclement conditions that will also likely result in the closure of many schools and businesses.

True to the forecast, heavy snow beset Athens Monday morning (Jan 24):

View: https://twitter.com/OmairaGill/status/1485565676546887682
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Heavy Snow in Athens Causes Traffic Chaos
Heavy snow, Athens (Jan 24) — see featured image, too.

There is no science behind the Anthropogenic Global Warming hypothesis. It is, and always has been, a politicized weapon used to browbeat western civilization into submission, to dupe weak, placating politicians into believing that the fruitfulness ordinary people have enjoyed over the past 50+ years, such as longer life expectancy and extra capital per household, aren’t sustainable enterprises, and that a total reshaping of the way things are done is required–including a rethink of how wealth and power are distributed. Wake up to this threat, people, because despite the incessant EOTW MSM rhetoric, it’s actually the only one we have.

Social Media channels are restricting Electroverse’s reach: Twitter are purging followers, while Facebook are labeling posts as “false” and have slapped-on crippling page restrictions. And most recently, the CCDH has stripped the website of its advertising.

Facebook, in partnership with the ‘fact-checkers’ at USA Today have conspired to restrict my use of the social media platform for 90 days, meaning I can’t post anything new. I’ve been found guilty of contesting a scientific theory, which in today’s world is now considered a ‘violation’:

FB-restict.png


So, be sure to subscribe to receive new post notifications by email. And also consider becoming a Patron or donating via Paypal (buttons located in the sidebar >>> or scroll down if on mobile). The site receives ZERO funding, and never has.

Any way you can, help me spread the message so others can survive and thrive in the coming times.

 

Martinhouse

Deceased
TxGal, If the geese were heading due north, they will be a good deal west of me. Unfortunately. Sure wish I could see them! If they do veer a little to the east, maybe I'll hear them, but as far as I know, my area isn't part of their migration pattern.

I'd welcome an early spring...it was warm here today, but my kitchen has been down to 43-44 the last few mornings, and today was just one day of warmth from a south breeze. It'll be cooling down again tonight and stay that way through the rest of my ten-day forecast. Chilly, but normal for this time of year.

I HATE WINTER!!!!!
 

TxGal

Day by day
TxGal, I hope you post-surgery care giving is going well.

Hoping to see you back here soon...YOU ARE MISSED!
Hi Martinhouse and others, really appreciate your kind thoughts. I have enough connectivity here to post a comment here and there, but don't know the computer/phone I'm using well enough to bring in articles....my gosh, there's a lot on Electroverse!

Recovery for family member is going well, thanks. I almost posted our hospital experience in the BS, my gosh!! Severe staff shortages. Family member received excellent care for the most part; hospital was extremely clean, but the poor nurses were just stretched so thin, severely understaffed there. Hospital wards were like ghost towns, patients yes, but limited staff. I've spent pretty much the last few years in and out of hospitals with family members (actually much of my adult life with senior family members), and have never seen anything like this before.

Seriously, this time around shook me to the core, and has had me double-checking and re-thinking our long-term preps and plans. I literally came away from this thinking we're heading toward a collapse in this country. Just wow.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Well, I haven't had anything like your experience there, but just the various things posted here and other sites have had me double-checking and re-thinking, too. I just spent the last three days canning 64 pints of cooked turkey breast meat that I had accumulated in the freezer since the stuff finally showed up in the stores just before Thanksgiving. I got to thinking how awful it would be to have to do all that steaming and canning and cleaning up with no electricity and with only my little two-burner propane camp stoves. So I just forced myself to get busy. I have to still puree a lot of fruit and can it, plus a lot of juice and possibly some tomato/chili bean soup.

Not possible to get an early start on such cold mornings but I kept at it and the worst is over. Next I'll do everything that requires using the electric blender, then the rest will be lots easier than the turkey project.

The weather is still bouncing up and down every few days and that sure isn't helping at all! And the warm days aren't heating the house all that much...there's just not enough heat from the sun this time of year.

I, too, believe that we're heading for a collapse, but not just in this country. I don't see how any country in the whole world could escape all the awful things that are going on everywhere now.

We are sure living in interesting times, aren't we? (: (:
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Jerusalem blanketed in white after rare snowfall
Jerusalem was blanketed in white after a rare winter storm covered much of the region’s higher altitudes with snow
By The Associated Press
27 January 2022, 02:35

WireAP_bbbd42e2172645a5b258f30446755066_16x9_992.jpg


JERUSALEM -- Jerusalem was blanketed in white on Thursday after a winter storm covered much of the region's higher altitudes with snow.

The holy city's iconic golden Dome of the Rock was dusted in snow. Main highways to Jerusalem and its major arteries were shut, and schools and businesses closed for the day as municipal snowplows worked to clear streets.

Israel Police also closed major highways in the mountainous West Bank due to the hazardous road conditions.

Snowfall in the hills around Jerusalem is uncommon, occurring perhaps once per winter.

A winter storm has been battering the eastern Mediterranean, bringing heavy rains and wind to the Middle East. Istanbul and Athens were covered in snow earlier this week.

Jerusalem blanketed in white after rare snowfall - ABC News (go.com)
 

TxGal

Day by day
Ahh, northern Virginia where I spent most of my life. This is a classic Nor'easter set-up. It looks like No VA may miss the worst of it, but these storms traditionally will jog to the west or the east more than forecasted and have often dumped feet of snow where inches were expected. That's why they call them winter hurricanes as they ride up the coast, they can be powerful and cause serious damage.
 

parsonswife

Veteran Member
Very dry clear sky's over Southern Oregon. Little snow left on neighboring mountains. While Tahoe has huge snow depth we are looking at drought again. Evan with the warm days and using less NG for the furnace the bill is still higher than last year...ugg
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
NatGas Soars As 45 Million Americans Face Winter Storm Threat

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
FRIDAY, JAN 28, 2022 - 10:58 AM

A powerful Nor'easter has put 45 million Americans under winter storm watches and warnings Friday into Saturday from the Carolinas to northeastern Maine. The prospects of the storm and cold weather have sent U.S. natural gas futures soaring Friday morning.

The National Weather Service (NWS) warned about a "powerful Nor'easter is expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Friday before impacting eastern parts of the Northeast and New England this weekend." Heavy snow is expected across eastern Long Island/New England with gusty winds that could produce blizzard conditions.

2022-01-28_08-10-00.png


AccuWeather meteorologists believe the storm will strengthen into a "bomb cyclone," a weather pattern we noted on Wednesday that had a very strong possibility playing out across the Northeast late Friday into Saturday. As early as Monday, we told readers multiple meteorologists sounded the alarm on the possible development of the weekend storm.
Now it appears the storm could dump as much as 36 inches in parts of Long Island and pummel Wantagh to Westhampton with 12 to 18 inches. New York City is on the edge of the storm and could receive six inches or fewer.

Saturday snowfall rates per hour (at the height of the storm) could exceed 3 to 4 inches per hour in eastern Massachusetts. The latest snowfall total project map shows coastal areas will receive the heaviest snow.

2022-01-28_08-11-17.png


NWS Boston points out the "exact storm track" has yet to be determined, which means if the storm travels closer to the coast, the heaviest snowfall could occur more inland.

A cold front is expected to pour into East Coast. We noted parts of South Florida are bracing for a rare freeze that could damage citrus crops on Saturday morning.

U.S. natural gas futures have risen for the sixth day ahead on prospects of a winter storm and colder weather. Futures for March delivery were up more than 13% to $4.786 around 0900 ET.

Snag_45293e2c_0.png


We must point out yesterday's epic squeeze in February's contracts ahead of expiration which rippled through later-month contacts (as seen below, highlighted in the orange box).

unnamed_216.png


Shedding more light on what happened yesterday is Goldman Sachs' Samantha Dart, who told clients Friday that yesterday's squeeze in February's contracts was not driven by fundamentals but a short covering trades in limited liquidity.

While we don't yet have full clarity on what drove today's 46% rally in US natural gas prices to $6.27/mmBtu during the last 30 minutes of trading before the close, we do not believe it was supported by fundamentals. The more likely explanation is that the rally reflected limited liquidity during short covering trades near the close as the February contract expired. Accordingly, we expect a correction lower from here to align NYMEX gas more closely with physical markets. Assuming 10-year-average weather for the remainder of winter, we maintain our $3.65/$3.45/mmBtu Bal winter/Sum22 Nymex gas price forecast, vs forwards currently at $4.28/$4.29/mmBtu.

Commodity analysts at Rabobank added their take on yesterday's squeeze:

For example, US natural gas prices leaped 72% overnight before retreating. Thin markets, yes, and a short squeeze into options expiry. Regardless, hardly the kind of calm trading in a key commodity that already-rattled markets wanted to see. And hardly a bearish price signal.

Forecasts are becoming more locked in as this could only mean one thing for folks trying to fly out of the Northeast on Saturday: expect elevated flight delays and cancellations.

NatGas Soars As 45 Million Americans Face Winter Storm Threat | ZeroHedge
 
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TxGal

Day by day
All, I'm posting the links below that I've been using most frequently. There are others, to be sure, but these links tend to be consistent in updating with new information. Out of all of them, I believe Electroverse tends to have the most wide-ranging and detail-oriented reporting:

Adapt 2030: Adapt 2030 - YouTube

The Oppenheimer Ranch Project: Oppenheimer Ranch Project - YouTube

Ice Age Farmer's webpage (he posts most frequently on his Telegram page; the link is on the homepage: ice age farmer | food, abundance, warmth

Electroverse.com: Electroverse - Documenting Earth Changes during the next GSM and Pole Shift

Sott.net: Signs of the Times - Independent Unbiased Alternative News for Mon, 31 Jan 2022 (sott.net) (Scroll down to the Earth Changes section)
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
TxGal, does this mean you won't be posting in our GSM thread for a while longer?

If so, thanks for the links. It sure won't be the same if you're not here at all any more!
 

TxGal

Day by day
TxGal, does this mean you won't be posting in our GSM thread for a while longer?

If so, thanks for the links. It sure won't be the same if you're not here at all any more!
Hey there, Martinhouse! I'm going to have to take a hiatus for a little while for family health issues. I've sent you and summerthyme a pm :-)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Coffee Prices Climb, Pushed Up by Bad Weather and Supply-Chain Woes; Arabica coffee futures rose 76% in 2021 and have continued to advance

Tuesday, February 1, 2022, 2:41 PM ET
By Hardika Singh
Wall Street Journal

Higher prices are here for your morning cup of joe.

First the drought came to Brazil, then the frost, roiling the world’s top coffee-growing region during the pandemic. Arabica coffee prices at one point last year were nearly twice their levels at the end of 2020. Investors are betting those weather effects, along with supply-chain snarls, will keep prices elevated in 2022.


Arabica coffee futures closed Tuesday at $2.37 a pound, after wrapping up January a little below monthly highs of $2.44. Futures traded at around $1.30 during the same time last year. They finished 2021 up 76%, the largest annual percentage gain since 2010, bringing higher prices for yet another raw material at coffee shops and breakfast tables.

“The coffee market has been on fire,” said Dave Whitcomb, head of research at Peak Trading Research. “This is the type of rally we haven’t seen in years.”

The surge in prices is hitting coffee sellers and roasters, which are passing it on to consumers. Nestlé SA, which sells at-home coffee through the Starbucks and Nescafé brands, is among those feeling the pressure. Though Nestlé—one of the world’s biggest coffee procurers—managed to avoid price increases for the most part in 2021, the company’s chief financial officer said in October that higher prices are expected this year.

J.M. Smucker Co.’s bottom line in the coffee segment has also been hurt by extreme weather and supply-chain disruptions. The Ohio-based company, which sells coffee through the Dunkin’ Donuts, Café Bustelo and Folgers brands, raised prices in response, Chief Executive Mark Smucker said during an earnings call in November.

The effects have filtered down to coffee shops. Kafe Kerouac, a coffee shop in Columbus, Ohio, raised prices for all lattes and espresso drinks by 25 cents in the new year. A combination of higher costs for beans, syrups and to-go cups pushed owner Mike Heslop to make the change.

Café Du Monde, in New Orleans, in November raised prices for three varieties of its canned coffee, sold in stores nationwide, by an average of 5% because of higher prices for coffee beans and cans. In the past, the company has hedged against higher costs using futures, said Jay Roman, president at the coffee shop. Mr. Roman said the company would likely buy futures again but prices are too high.

“So far, there haven’t been too many downticks,” Mr. Roman said.

On the other hand, Starbucks Corp. said it had coffee prices locked in for 14 months during its earnings call in late October. Company spokeswoman Megan Lagesse said rising coffee costs haven’t contributed to any price increases experienced by customers.

Coffee’s continued advance comes as many other commodities that surged to start 2021— such as sugar, wheat and lumber—retreated from those highs.

While analysts say the aftereffects of 2021’s weather are their principal concern, they are also watching for a La Niña weather pattern this year to see how long drought conditions in Brazil will persist.

Though coffee’s price rise can be mostly attributed to weather, higher shipping and freight costs have also helped fuel the rally. The Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for measuring global freight and shipping rates, rose 62% in 2021, its biggest percentage gain since 2016.

In addition to higher costs for beans, coffee companies are facing broader pressures, such as persistent labor issues and seven-year highs in energy, hurting profits. “We don’t think the beans alone are the driver, ” said Aakash Doshi, head of commodities for North America at Citi Research.

Hedge funds and other speculative investors piled into coffee last year with total net long positioning at the end of 2021 climbing to the highest levels in five years, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data that includes futures and options.

Prices could come down if the weather outlook improves. Meanwhile, analysts said farmers might decide to not allocate more acreage to coffee trees, which typically take three to four years to mature.

For now, traders are looking for signals about the health of the 2022 crop. Thiago Cazarini, coffee broker at Cazarini Trading Co., lowered his projections for this year’s Brazilian crop because, he said, plants that flowered didn’t yield as much fruit as anticipated.

“We are not as comfortable with the coming crop as we were a year ago,” said Mr. Cazarini, who estimates that coffee will trade between $2.60 and $2.80 a pound for the first half of 2022. “We haven’t seen the highs in coffee yet.”

Write to Hardika Singh at hardika.singh@wsj.com

Coffee Prices Climb, Pushed Up by Bad Weather and Supply-Chain Woes - WSJ
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
90 Million Americans Brace For Groundhog Day Winter Storm; Is Texas Ready This Time?

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
TUESDAY, FEB 01, 2022 - 05:20 PM

More than 90 million Americans are in the path of a cross-country storm system set to unleash heavy snow, ice, and even severe thunderstorms on Groundhog day from the Rockies to northern New England. We told readers to monitor the system on Sunday as forecasts would become more concrete.

"We're closely monitoring the major winter storm impacting a large swath of the U.S. from New Mexico, northeast into New England. It's a complex forecast from winter precipitation types, to amounts, and more," the National Weather Service (NWS) tweeted Tuesday morning.

1643771271111.png


Fox News Senior Meteorologist Janice Dean sheds more color on the upcoming storm that will "bring a widespread mess of hazards: heavy snow, flooding rain and accumulating ice from Texas to the Northeast." In a series of tweets, she outlines the future track of the system, potential snow totals, and ice forecasts -- even pinpointing areas that are considered high impact zones.




Columbia, Missouri; Peoria, Illinois; Fort Wayne, Indiana; Detroit, Michigan; and Toledo, Ohio, could all receive more than a foot of snow. Toronto, Montreal, and Quebec City could pick up 12-18 inches.



"The winter storm traversing the country this week has a chance at breaking into the top-five heaviest snowstorms to ever occur in Detroit. If the city records more than 14 inches, it will rank in the top five snowstorms," AccuWeather said.
There's also an ice component of the storm in the areas listed below.



Dean said "another blast of arctic air will settle" into the western half of the country by the end of the week.



AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz said the "arctic air will produce some of the coldest air of the season for places like North Dakota and northern Minnesota by Thursday morning." We noted Monday that Texas' power grid was at risk due to colder weather trends. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott warned Tuesday that power demand would be the highest on Friday morning. The governor said that the primary grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), will be ready for increasing power usage due to soaring heating demand.

Are Abbott and ERCOT ready for two shots of arctic air?



Meanwhile, March natural gas futures have risen 33.5% in the last two weeks on colder weather and numerous snowstorms as heating demand increases. Prices have retraced a little more than 50% of the down move from late October's high to December's low.



Also, the famous market trade known as the "widowmaker" (natgas March-April 22 futures spread) has rebounded from a low in the last two weeks as speculators bet on colder weather.



Forecasts are becoming more locked as the massive winter storm is about to begin. We do expect air travel disruptions this week.

90 Million Americans Brace For Groundhog Day Winter Storm; Is Texas Ready This Time? | ZeroHedge
 
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