Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

Lone_Hawk

Resident Spook
I hear you on the cold... as we get older and old injuries remind us we should have been more careful!!, the cold is just miserable. It's one reason we're looking in the mid south for a planned move in a few years.

Yeah, I hear ya', when I moved from the MD/PA line to South of Raleigh I brought my snow blower. When it was unloaded down here they laughed at me. I haven't had to fire it up in 13 years. I'm right at 100 miles from Wilmington, so we don't get the brunt of hurricanes. Winters are mild, it is 68 and I have my windows open, and it doesn't get near as hot as Texas.

@Martinhouse Arkansas is a pretty state, I grew up in Texarkana, TX and spent most of my summers on lake Greason and did a lot of exploring around the Hot Springs area. I seriously wanted to move back to Texas, but when I went back when my Mom died in 2007, Dallas was taken over by Mexicans and hood rats. Texas isn't what it was back in the 70s.

Yeah, North Carolina has more than our fair share of liberal idiots. But if you stay out of the cities, out here in the other counties, life is good.
 

Martinhouse

Deceased
Lone Hawk, I lived in Charlotte for 14 months in 1978 and '79. It was gorgeous there then...the weather was nearly the same as where I live here in Arkansas, although possibly a little more humid. Part of that time I worked downtown in the Wakovia building, but it was still a lovely, safe city then.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Good grief, woke up to 29 this morning, we were supposed to be at 34. This has been happening so much lately, we're still mentally subtracting our forecasted lows when it's cold by 4-5 degrees and planning accordingly.
 

TxGal

Day by day
While the below post by Adapt 2030 is not directly a GSM podcast, unfortunately shortages (especially of food products) are.

The Last Truck - YouTube

The Last Truck
9,342 views
Premiered 8 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/DOk8CqVqwcs
Run time is 9:09

Synopsis provided:

With Canada / U.S cross border COVID vax proof starting January 15, 2022 reports of 31,000 truckers will quit their jobs or not deliver across the borders. "Expect a supply chain meltdown" were words used by transport heads in both countries. The burn rate of raw food products jumped 40% but the refill rate at these feeder pools / bulk warehouses is no where that replenish rate. Hope you have made ready.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Two new podcasts from The Oppeneheimer Ranch Project:

Epic Snowpack Out West - Ice Storm In The East - Iceland Volcano Update - Yellowstone Warning? - YouTube

Epic Snowpack Out West - Ice Storm In The East - Iceland Volcano Update - Yellowstone Warning?
7,165 views
Premiered Jan 9, 2022

View: https://youtu.be/7omE-8PR1VI
Run time is 10:24

Synopsis provided:

Ice storm warning in effect until 2 p.m.; speed limits reduced on highways https://bit.ly/33eI2Eg
Winter Storm Watch issued -Lake Effect snow, single-digit windchills https://bit.ly/3JUPTaN
Westside SNOTEL Snowpack Map https://bit.ly/3mHUCCP
At least 34 people rescued after they became stranded on a floating chunk of ice in Green Bay https://cnn.it/3tbsMTJ
Freezing Rain in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic; Bitter Cold in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Temps US https://bit.ly/3zFM8Bu
Iceland Whole country - earthquakes https://bit.ly/3vNKaNe
latest quakes near Fagradalsfjall volcano https://bit.ly/3n6H8ks
Barren Island https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn...
Yellowstone supervolcano warning LOL https://bit.ly/3Fa4xaN
At least seven dead after Brazil cliff collapses on boats https://bbc.in/3t7BFh3
HAWAIIAN LIFEGUARDS IMPLORE SURFERS https://bit.ly/3ncyYHf
Humans genetically similar to 555-million-year-old animals, study reveals https://bit.ly/32UT9CJ
Developmental processes in Ediacara https://bit.ly/3G5C8nv
Climate change: For 25th year in a row, Greenland ice sheet shrinks https://bit.ly/3t9QGPj
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
The 2nd from Oppenheimer:

Extreme Cold Warning, Frostbite Possible In 10 Minutes - Viking Horned Helmet De Bunk - Diamond Rain - YouTube

Extreme Cold Warning, Frostbite Possible In 10 Minutes - Viking Horned Helmet De Bunk - Diamond Rain
3,503 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/4AuAcJsvxRU
Run time is 9:34

Synopsis provided:

Coldest air in three years coming to parts of the country https://nbcnews.to/3f7cZwW
Extreme cold warning in effect for southern Quebec https://bit.ly/3JXZ7mG
Extreme cold weather warning issued for Montreal, frostbite possible within 10 minutes https://bit.ly/3tcZTGH
Bitter blast: Coldest air in 3 years moves in for Tuesday https://bit.ly/3ndPPcq
Boston Public Schools Closed Tuesday Due To Frigid Temperatures https://cbsloc.al/3JWc1BL
GFS Model Temperature US https://bit.ly/3ncXQ1o
Dangerous Wind Chills in the Northeast; Heavy Rain in Washington State https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Total Snow US https://bit.ly/3JWqQEv
Sea level on steroids: Record tides flood Washington coastlines https://bit.ly/33m0hYi
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
Mumbai's Coldest Temp In a Decade; Record Snow Leads to 38 Avalanches Around Snoqualmie; And No, The "Climate Crisis" Isn't Causing An Uptick In Arctic Lightening, Cosmic Rays Are - Electroverse

Blitz-in-der-Arktis-e1641905305346.jpg

Articles Extreme Weather GSM

MUMBAI’S COLDEST TEMP IN A DECADE; RECORD SNOW LEADS TO 38 AVALANCHES AROUND SNOQUALMIE; AND NO, THE “CLIMATE CRISIS” ISN’T CAUSING AN UPTICK IN ARCTIC LIGHTENING, COSMIC RAYS ARE
JANUARY 11, 2022 CAP ALLON

MUMBAI’S COLDEST TEMP IN A DECADE

Mumbai, India woke to a cold Monday morning this week with minimum temperatures, as logged by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Santacruz observatory, hitting 13.2C (55.7F) — the lowest of the season so far.

The unusual chill persisted throughout the day, with Mumbai reaching a high of just 25.1C (77F) — a reading that may seem mild to most, but one that went down as the city’s lowest January max for a decade, reports timesofindia.com.

A low of 12C (53.6C) is on the cards Tuesday night, as much of India continues to shiver through an anomalous cold spell.
As explained by one IMD official: “The associated cyclonic circulation of western disturbance over northwest India is pulling the moisture from the Arabian sea. Also, the prevalence of the northerly cold winds over the region is leading to this chill.”

Those northerly winds have had an extra bite of late, as they are having to traverse record snowpack in Northern India, Pakistan and Nepal on their way south. Tens of people perished in unprecedented Pakistan blizzards over the weekend, while in Nepal, more than 3 meters (10 feet) of snow recently accumulated on the mountains, including on Manaslu.

“[Of all my] 21 winter expeditions, this one is proving to be particularly hard,” said Manaslu climber Simone Moro, pictured below with two other climbers navigating a tricky section of the mountain on Jan 5–so before the latest snowstorm.



Below is Moro (in red) and a Nepali team member working on their buried tents:



Buried tent on Manaslu, Nepal.

RECORD SNOW LEADS TO 38 AVALANCHES AROUND SNOQUALMIE


Washington State’s department of transportation is still conducting clearing operations after 38 avalanches came down onto roadways in and around Snoqualmie, located just outside Seattle.

A record 236 inches of snow besieged the region, breaking the previous record of 229 inches from Jan 3, 2006.

Crews use a grader to cut back the more than 11 feet of snow along US 12 over White Pass.

The state has been dealing with inclement wintry weather for weeks.

Gov. Jay Inslee declared a state of emergency on Friday after “a series of severe winter storms” that started December 17, caused record snow, flooding, evacuations and road closures.

The historic falls haven’t just been confined to WA, either. Looking south, at Nevada: “We have almost twice as much as normal,” said Hydrologist Jeff Anderson of NRCS — the snowpack is sitting at 185% or normal.

Likewise in neighboring California, snowpack is holding at record high levels. The state enjoyed its snowiest month of December in history last month: An unprecedented 214 inches (5.44m) was logged by the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, while the 171 inches (4.43m) observed at central California’s Yosemite National Park (at Tuolumne Meadows) smashed the area’s previous all-time record of 143 inches (3.63m) set back in 1996 (solar minimum of cycle 22).

Record snow accumulations have been building in locales out east, too — including in New York State:

View: https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1480726908526546947

Run time is 0:46

All of which have added to the Total Snow Mass for the Northern Hemisphere, which continues to push on, now fast approaching 500 Gigatons above the 1982-2012 average:


[FMI]

THE “CLIMATE CRISIS” ISN’T CAUSING AN UPTICK IN ARCTIC LIGHTENING, COSMIC RAYS ARE

A new phenomenon has been observed, and so, of course, the old scapegoat has been dragged to the fore. But once again, the correlation (this time, global warming and Arctic lightening) is driven predominantly by the media, rather than the science.

In a 2021 Annual Lightning Report, the World Meteorological Organization stated that lightning was an Essential Climate Variable, because understanding where and how frequently it happens can offer insights into climate change. According to a 2021 study, an increase in the number of lightning strikes between 2010 and 2020 occurred in the Arctic, which seemed to correlate with global temperature anomalies. While back in 2019, scientists observed the furthest-north lightning on record — roughly 32 miles from the North Pole.

Of course, the media has managed to find researchers willing to tie these observations to the AGW Party narrative: “Scientists affirmed that as recent years showed strong evidence that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than expected, causing sea ice to melt along with permafrost, reports of multiple lightning strikes had also been detected within just a few hundred miles from the North Pole,” reported thehill.com this week. But as we discussed just yesterday, Arctic sea ice has been performing well in recent years — particularly this year, with extent currently sitting at its highest level since 2004 (see below).

Correlating decreasing sea ice with increased lightening already has the alarmists on shaky ground.


[NSIDC]

The Hill go on to fear-monger about wildfires, lightening being a key contributor to those. And they also quote Chris Vagasky, a meteorologist for Vaisala (a Finnish environmental firm): “Changes in the Arctic can mean changes in the weather at home. All weather is local, but what happens at your house depends on how the atmosphere is behaving elsewhere throughout the world. Changes to conditions in the Arctic could cause more extreme cold outbreaks, more heatwaves, or extreme changes in precipitation to Europe,” said Vagasky, who also added this: “Scientists can’t tie a lightning strike from one day to the changes in our climate, but monitoring trends of lightning in the Arctic is especially important and something that will need to be studied now and in the future,” which is a prime example of a scientist covering their back, i.e., “I’ve told you what you want to hear, but let me include just enough doubt so that I don’t look like a total stooge years down the line when the AGW fraud is exposed.”

But a stooge you are, Vagasky, because the observed influx of cosmic rays is capable of FULLY explaining the observed uptick in Arctic lightening — no boogeyman (aka CO2 scapegoat) required.

As early as 1933 a connection between cosmic rays and lightening was noted. But it wasn’t until decades later that the phenomenon was properly investigated. Still, that 1933 paper was asking the right questions — below is its abstract:

In order to explain the curious behaviour of lightning flashes the possibility should be kept in mind of a connexion between a lightning discharge and the cosmic rays. When penetrating particles from cosmic rays move through the atmosphere—in this case through electrically loaded clouds—they are ionising the air, making conducting paths for the lightning. The twisted or irregular shapes of lightning flashes may find a natural explanation, if we think of a discharge path following the variable network of ion-tracks, such as are assumed to be present in the air at any moment, caused by nuclear disintegration of atoms and other processes in conjunction with the cosmic rays, causing emission of protons, neutrons and negative or positive electrons.

In recent years, the ideas postulated back in 1933 have been found to be bang on the money.

Just as they do with clouds, cosmic rays can seed lightening.

Serving as a brief recap, cosmic rays are a mixture of high-energy photons and sub-atomic particles accelerated toward Earth by supernova explosions and other violent events in the cosmos. During solar minimums –the low point of the 11 solar cycle– the Sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases. This allows more cosmic rays to penetrate the inner solar system, including Earth’s atmosphere. The correlation is clear — as solar activity decreases, the cosmic ray count increases:



As noted by Dr Tony Phillips, who points to the study Galactic Cosmic Radiation in Interplanetary Space Through a Modern Secular Minimum, “cosmic rays are bad–and they’re going to get worse” as the Grand Solar Minimum (a prolonged spell of low solar output) persists.

“During the next solar cycle, we could see cosmic ray dose rates increase by as much as 75%,” says lead author of the study Fatemeh Rahmanifard of the University of New Hampshire’s Space Science Center. “This will limit the amount of time astronauts can work safely in interplanetary space.”

Back in the 1990s, astronauts could travel through space for as much as 1000 days before they hit NASA safety limits on radiation exposure. Not anymore, writes Dr Phillips. According to the new research, cosmic rays threaten to limit trips to as little as 290 days for 45-year old male astronauts, and 204 days for females.

So, cosmic rays are increasing. A fact widely accepted. However, it’s their impact that is still being ignored, swept under the rug in favor of the better paying narrative that is anthropogenic global warming.

When cosmic rays hit the top of Earth’s atmosphere they produce a spray of secondary particles and photons that rain down on Earth’s surface, and these particles, as touched on above, have been found to seed clouds (Svensmark et al). Cloud cover plays perhaps the most crucial role in our planet’s short-term climate change: “Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade,” writes Dr. Roy Spencer, “and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling.” Therefore, it makes sense that the upshot of the historically weak solar cycles we’ve been experiencing in recent years (cycles 24 and 25–the weakest of the past 200+ years) will be a cooling of the planet.

Adding increased lightening to the mix spices things up. And it also offers the AGW Party an appropriately apocalyptic visualization to go with their ‘End Of Days’ rhetoric. Lightening is scary. But the science just isn’t there. Sorry, Vagasky. Increased lightening, like increased cloud cover, is caused by increased cosmic rays (papers easily googleable — here’s one).

Below is the observed uptick in Arctic lightening:


Guardian graphic. Source: Vaisala.

And below is the increase in cosmic rays hitting Earth (graphic lifted from the paper cited by Dr Tony Phillips above).

Note how the rates of lightning increase in line with the higher levels of in cosmic rays (from 2017 onward).

swe21035-fig-0001

Activist scientists discovered a round peg (a climatic anomaly) and have tried desperately to jam it into AGW’s decidedly square hole, offering no real scientific explanation for the phenomenon — not that the likes of the The Hill and The Guardian are interested in genuine scientific debate. They made that clear decades ago. This is more their level:

devil GIFs - Primo GIF - Latest Animated GIFs
AGW ‘devil lightening’.

There is, of course, a ulterior motive to all this AGW fear-mongering — and that is control.

After dismissing climate lockdowns as another conspiracy theory, there is now increasing talk of them being rolled out, modeled after COVID lockdowns, and under what’s being labelled environmental authoritarianism, in which your right to drive a car, fly on a plane or own a big house could be suspended by the government in order to fight the ‘climate crisis’.

A recent article in the influential magazine Foreign Policy suggested Democracy may not be compatible with reaching climate goals. This is where we’re headed. This is where we were always headed. The question is, will the gullible masses awake in time?

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Record-Breaking Blizzards Batter Pakistan, Killing At Least 23; Extreme Cold Hits Canadian Refineries, Sending Gas Prices to Record Highs; + Historic Arctic Blast Headed For Boston, As Record Snow Continues to Sweep U.S. - Electroverse

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Extreme Weather GSM

RECORD-BREAKING BLIZZARDS BATTER PAKISTAN, KILLING AT LEAST 23; EXTREME COLD HITS CANADIAN REFINERIES, SENDING GAS PRICES TO RECORD HIGHS; + HISTORIC ARCTIC BLAST HEADED FOR BOSTON, AS RECORD SNOW CONTINUES TO SWEEP U.S.
JANUARY 10, 2022 CAP ALLON

RECORD-BREAKING BLIZZARDS BATTER PAKISTAN, KILLING AT LEAST 23

Unprecedented blizzards battered parts of Pakistan over the weekend, including the hilltop town of Murree where deep drifts and felled trees blocked roads, trapping thousands of vehicles, and killing at least 23 people.

One Pakistani woman, trapped in her car for hours by the record snowfall, described how she “saw death” in front of her as she waited for help.

Samina said she left her home at 16:00 local time to travel to Murree, but soon found herself among those trapped in the snow: “I could see death in front of me,” she said. “It was like there were snow peaks built around our car… I can’t explain in words what I was going through… We were praying God may help us and we shouldn’t be perished in a snowstorm.”

Trapped In Vehicles After Snowstorm, 22 People Die In Pakistan's Murree

Conditions conspired to dump 1.5m (5ft) of snow within just a few hours.

“It was unprecedented,” said Tariq Ullah, an official in the nearby town of Nathiagali. “There were strong winds, uprooted trees, avalanches. People around were terrified.”

Samina was finally rescued at 10:00 the next morning.

Not so lucky were 10 children who were confirmed to have perished in the storm, along with at least 13 others: According to authorities, 8 people froze to death, while asphyxiation -after inhaling fumes while trying to keep warm in their vehicles- has been given as a possible reason for the others.

View: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1480162439920594947
Run time is 1:22

View: https://twitter.com/needasalam/status/1479746624653967361

Pakistan: Over 20 die in cars stranded in snow at Murree resort | News | DW  | 08.01.2022

A fierce chill has continued to dominate Pakistan into Monday.

As reported by tribuneindia.com, Gulmarg tourist resort in north Kashmir -for example- posted lows of -10C (14F) for the second consecutive night, with “extreme cold” gripping most places in the valley, Met officials said Monday morning.

View: https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1480277954047401987
Run time is 0:14

EXTREME COLD HITS CANADIAN REFINERIES, SENDING GAS PRICES TO RECORD HIGHS

Canadian refineries have been struggling in the freezing weather, which, according to Dan McTeague, president at Canadians for Affordable Energy, is the main cause for Metro Vancouver‘s recent spike in gas prices.

“The weather started to change after the 23rd of December,” said McTeague.

This was around the time Calgary-based Parkland Corp.’s Burnaby refinery, which supplies about a third of the gas to the Lower Mainland and the Island, issued a notice about “unseasonably cold temperatures” hurting its operations.

Freezing lows were affecting the refinery’s ability “to crack the molecules to make gasoline or diesel,” explained McTeague, who said extreme cold was also slowing operations at a refinery in Anacortes, Washington, as well as two storage terminals in Oregon–which ship throughout the area. On top of that, the Trans-Mountain pipeline from Alberta to Burnaby is also not yet 100 per cent back in action after November’s storm.

“So all of these things (are) happening at the same time,” said McTeague, and the knock-on effect is visible in the prices.

On Dec 22, the wholesale gas price was US$2.06 a gallon, but by Jan 5 it had climbed to US$2.65 a gallon. This hike was quickly passed onto retailers: Metro Vancouver gas prices in late Dec were sitting at about $1.56 a litre, they’re now at $1.76 per litre — a new retail price record.

Following the historic December lows, which saw the nation suffer its first sub -50C (-58F) in Dec since 1998, temperatures in Canada have continued down in January, to currently sit among their lowest readings since 2008 (solar minimum of cycle 24), with localized areas experiencing all-time record cold, spelling further bad news for the refineries.

View: https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1480229312162766856

McTeague expects rising global oil prices to compound Vancouver’s problems, with US$100+ a barrel in 2022 highly likely.

That general outlook, combined with taxes and a weaker Canadian dollar, means that, at the pump, Metro Vancouver drivers will be paying $1.85 a litre within a few weeks or months: “A buck 85 is going to be a number you’re going to see a lot more often,” concluded McTeague.

And this is a story playing out across the planet, as a suicidal under-investment in fossil fuels, combined with record cold and the depletion of stocks following a historically frigid winter of 2020-21, continue to threaten nations’ energy security.

From China to Europe, from the USA to Kazakhstan, society is beginning to fracture:

View: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1480309910776659969
Run time is 3:51

And Canada’s wild winter ride is far from over.

Environment Canada issuing further weather warnings, particularly for northern British Columbia, as a Pacific frontal system brings yet more heavy snowfall and extreme cold to the region: “Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight,” reads the warning.


HISTORIC ARCTIC BLAST HEADED FOR BOSTON, AS RECORD SNOW CONTINUES TO SWEEP U.S.

Some of that bone-chilling Canadian cold has been descending anomalously-far south in recent weeks. Boston, still reeling from last weeks bumper snowstorm, is expecting “record-setting cold temps on Tuesday,” according to boston.cbslocal.com.

Last Friday, the city picked up just under 12 inches, close to the seasonal average, in one foul swoop.

And on the Sunday just gone, temperatures started dropping again — and by Monday night into Tuesday, “a blast of cold straight from the Arctic will move in,” continues the boston.cbslocal.com article:


[WBZ-TV Graphic]

Tuesday’s chill will challenge the record low-max for the date (12F/-11.1C) in weather books dating back to 1872.

In fact, record-challenging cold will sweep much of the eastern North America this week:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies (C) Tue, Jan 11 [tropicaltidbits.com].

While heavy snowfall will continue out west.

A host of all-time benchmarks have been busted in recent days/weeks, including the 36 inches logged in a 24 hour period in Leavenworth, WA, which forced the city to declare a state of emergency and request aid from the National Guard.

City officials added that areas received 48 inches in less than 48 hours, calling it “unprecedented and record-breaking.”

View: https://twitter.com/ScottSeattleWx/status/1480247919118671874

Overall, Northern Hemisphere snow mass has been on a tear in recent weeks, to levels that now, as of Jan 8, 2022, stand at some 450 Gigatons above the 1982-2012 average — an impossibility under the global warming hypothesis.


[FMI]
In addition, Arctic sea ice has also begun 2022 impressively, continuing where it left off in 2021.

Below is the latest NSIDC data, which sees extent at its highest level since 2004, and growing:


[NSIDC]

Above is the reality, but below is what the U.S. government –under the guise of NOAA– has to say on the recent developments.

“Human-caused climate change are propelling the Arctic region into a dramatically different state than it was in just a few decades ago,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “The trends are alarming and undeniable. We face a decisive moment. We must take action to confront the climate crisis.”

This is the chart NOAA cite in their 2021 ‘Arctic Report Card’:


[NOAA’s Arctic Report Card]

But the agency has satellite data stretching back to 1972:



The issue for the AGW Party, however, is that using the full dataset would reveal that sea ice was “significantly less” back in the early-70s, suggesting that a natural ebbing-and-flowing dictates the ‘health’ of polar ice, rather than their fabricated CO2-induced Apocalypse.


[1990 IPPC Report]

Our ‘reality’ is driven by pervasive agendas, propped-up obfuscations and outright lies — question everything.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Coldest Air In Years Pours Into Parts Of US; Next Winter Storm Nears

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
TUESDAY, JAN 11, 2022 - 10:53 AM

Monday was an awful start to the workweek, with 15 million people under severe wind chill warnings across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the Northeast and New England.

For the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, Monday was the coldest part of the week as temperatures are expected to rebound. For the Northeast, Tuesday is expected to be the coldest, and then temperatures will rebound through the end of the week.


The high today for New York City will be 22 degrees Fahrenheit and 12 degrees Fahrenheit in Boston (will be the coldest highs since 2019). The good news is temperatures will warm up after today, but there is colder weather ahead.

Weather models produced by Bloomberg show a massive cold blast could be ready to strike the US beginning next Wednesday (Jan. 19). Temperatures are forecasted to deviate significantly from a 30-year mean of around 37 degrees Fahrenheit to about 20 degrees Fahrenheit by Jan. 25.

2022-01-11_08-28-27.png


Meteorologists at private weather forecasting firm BAMWX are saying, "medium-range data all in agreement for most persistent colder air of the season for the East ahead...winter storm potential increasing as well."

The rounds of cold spells across the country will increase heating demand through month-end.

2022-01-11_08-29-49.png


This may boost natural gas prices after a multi-month slump.

2022-01-11_08-40-05.png


Winter has finally arrived.

Coldest Air In Years Pours Into Parts Of US; Next Winter Storm Nears | ZeroHedge
 
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TxGal

Day by day
The Oppheimer Ranch Project has a new podcast out:

Major East Coast Storm Brewing - Record Cold Northeast - Another Atmospheric River NW - Huge CME - YouTube

Major East Coast Storm Brewing - Record Cold Northeast - Another Atmospheric River NW - Huge CME
6,163 views
Premiered 20 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/e3SPlgZfMrY
Run time is 10:37

Synopsis provided:

Leavenworth is running out of places to put its record-breaking snowfall https://bit.ly/3tj0gj6
Another atmospheric river is headed to Western Washington https://bit.ly/3HXYU0W
Flood-ravaged communities brace for another atmospheric river https://bit.ly/3qdhGLY
GFS Model Total Precip NW US https://bit.ly/3Ge4ps2
Northeast expecting temperatures well below zero this week https://abcn.ws/3FhtRvz
We’re in the snow hole https://bit.ly/3K1sIeZ
Solar Cycles https://bit.ly/3JUb0tU
Dangerous Wind Chills across the Northeast; Heavy Rain for Washington State https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Total Snow US https://bit.ly/3qcUwVX
An enormous supervolcano may be hiding under Alaskan islands https://bit.ly/3pSK0TJ
ISWA Solar Wind Prediction Spiral https://go.nasa.gov/2R8QL1h
Worldwide Volcano News https://bit.ly/3y58XgJ
Iceland Whole country - earthquakes https://bit.ly/3vNKaNe
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
NOAA: Winter Storms Were The Deadliest Climate Disasters In 2021; Mt Shasta Recovers; Record Cold Hits Mt Washington; + 'Green Ideals' Caused Europe's Ongoing Energy Crisis - Electroverse

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Articles Extreme Weather GSM

NOAA: WINTER STORMS WERE THE DEADLIEST CLIMATE DISASTERS IN 2021; MT SHASTA RECOVERS; RECORD COLD HITS MT WASHINGTON; + ‘GREEN IDEALS’ CAUSED EUROPE’S ONGOING ENERGY CRISIS
JANUARY 12, 2022 CAP ALLON

NOAA: WINTER STORMS THE DEADLIEST “CLIMATE DISASTERS” IN 2021

In an overview ahead of its full report, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said that 2021 ranked as the third costliest on record for “climate disasters”, totaling $145 billion.

Weather also claimed the lives of 688 people (or 0.0002% of the population), according to the overview — odds that are pretty darn good given that we’re supposedly in the midst of a “climate crisis”. If you’re left-handed, you actually had more chance of dying from using a right-handed product (approx. 700 left-handed Americans are killed each year from using equipment meant for right-handers).

But that ‘688’ death-toll figure has already been called into question.

Using excess mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), researchers were able to ascertain that 702 people died in Texas’ big freeze alone, far more than the state’s official tally of 151, and making it by far the year’s deadliest climatic event.

“It was a tough year,” said agenda-driving NOAA climatologist and economist Adam Smith, who compiled the report for the agency (full version due out Thursday). “Climate change has taken a shotgun approach to hazards across the country.”

MT SHASTA RECOVERS

Around 4 months on from the alarming publications re Mt Shasta’s diminishing summer snowpack –which even at the time was nothing out of the ordinary– images of the mountain taken from space now show a dramatic wintry turnaround.

“It’s scary,” said Andy Calvert back in September, a scientist in charge at Mt. Shasta for the U.S. Geological Survey. “The pace of change right now on Mt. Shasta seems very fast, and its glaciers are getting smaller at a rate that makes me sad.”

Well, Andy, prepare to turn that frown upside down, because well-above average snowfall in December and early-January has replenished Mount Shasta’s snowpack -and glaciers- to levels not seen in many a moon. Unfortunately, though, I am yet to see any retractions/updates from the MSM.


before-shasta.jpg

after-shasta.jpg

Satellite imagery of Mt Shasta: summer (left), winter (right).

And Shasta’s above-average snowpack is far from an anomaly.

Elsewhere in California, all-time record accumulations for the month of December were logged, including at the UC Berkeley Snow Lab and Yosemite National Park. In fact, the story is the same across much of the West, where historic falls have been observed from WA to CO.

Aided by America’s unprecedented totals, that Snow Mass For The Northern Hemisphere chart keeps on keeping on — its latest data-point (Jan 10) puts us at almost 500 Gigatons above the 1982-2012 average:


[FMI]

RECORD COLD HITS MT WASHINGTON

Brian Fitzgerald, Mt Washington Observatory’s director of science and education, said that Tuesday saw a record low temperature atop the mountain: -31F was registered, busting the old coldest Jan 11 on record — the -29F set in 2020.

“We had a strong Arctic cold front move in overnight,” said Fitzgerald. “Not only was it cold. it was pretty windy, too. Windchill values across the state were below zero.”

Fitzgerald attributed the record-low reading to the location of the jetstream, which dropped down, funneling cold air in from Canada. Fitzgerald added after a brief warm-up in the valleys on Thurs, “we’ll have another influx of Arctic air over the weekend.”


‘GREEN IDEALS’ CAUSED EUROPE’S ONGOING ENERGY CRISIS

Europe’s shortsighted approach to energy is crippling the continent’s already flagging economic recovery post-COVID.

In the fall of 2021, European gas and electricity prices hit record highs as supplies dwindled and a cold snap increased demand. And with the new year settling in, and with swathes of Europe –particularly the East– freezing through a bitter winter, there are no signs that relief from painful bills is on the way.

Wholesale European gas prices soared more than 800 percent last year, the Financial Times reported, with demand for resource spiking for several reasons, reports chinadaily.com, including the colder winter in Europe, failing renewables, production issues, chronic under-funding (with fossil fuels out of favor with investors), and nuclear power outages.

Adding to the pricing pressures, Russia has been sending less natural gas to Europe, with some analysts saying it is restricting supplies for political reasons in order to push European governments to approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

But Moscow has vehemently denied any maneuvering.

Samir Dani, a professor of management operations at Keele University in Staffordshire, Britain, points out that Russia has had its own gas production problems: “Russia itself also faced problems because of very harsh winters; they have depleted a lot of their gas resources, and, due to the pandemic, they also faced maintenance issues. So they haven’t been able to ramp up production and supply,” Dani told China Daily.

Russia provides around 5 percent of the UK’s gas, but otherwise is Europe’as majority provider of the resource.

The Netherlands, Europe’s top domestic producer of natural gas, started phasing out its main gas field at Groningen in 2018 due to ‘green ideals’, a move that has further compounded supply problems.

According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the continent’s percentage of available gas in storage at the end of December was 74 percent, compared with 94 percent this time last year. And with the harshness of winter still yet to come (with cold weather expected until April/May), some analysts are warning of rolling blackouts.

Gayle Allard, a professor of economics at IE University in Madrid, Spain, said the European Union could have acted sooner to cushion the impact of shortages: “Supplies could have been diversified. … Infrastructure for U.S. gas could have been prepared. Not investing earlier and more heavily in renewables was another mistake.”

To my mind, the calamities of the past few years –the pandemic, the climate emergency, the stoking of racial tensions– are ALL components of an orchestrated take-down of society. They want a collapse, a global civil war. And from the resulting ashes they plan to ‘build back better’, but in their name, not ours; in the interest of the few, not the many — and they’ll rewrite the rules in order to quell dissent: online censorship will be ratcheted up and protests will be banned, because without free speech and the right to assemble, organizing a ‘coup’ will be nigh-on impossible and we’ll be enslaved, indefinitely, and the next generation will quickly forget how good we used to have it.

We know now that COVID was an “American-created” virus — at least that what’s recently leaked DARPA documents state. The same papers also reveal that Ivermectin is an effective treatment against COVID, while the vaccines are all-but useless.

For more on this, watch the below Project Veritas video:

View: https://youtu.be/_zgoENmeddA
Run time is 7:07

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 
Last edited:

TxGal

Day by day
The Oppenheimer Ranch Project has a new podcast out:

Winter Storm Izzy Will Send Midwest, South and East Into A Tizzy - How Old Are Humans? Ruapehu Quake - YouTube

Winter Storm Izzy Will Send Midwest, South and East Into A Tizzy - How Old Are Humans? Ruapehu Quake
3,745 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/07Zq1ijAHAQ
Run time is 17:58

Synopsis provided:

Eastern US on alert for a thumping from another major winter storm https://bit.ly/3zRig5c
Winter Storm Izzy to Spread Snow, Ice from Midwest into South and East https://bit.ly/3rxhQxl
A winter storm will swing through the East. Does Atlanta get snow? Nashville? Washington? https://cnn.it/3fjrNJ2
Mixed Precipitation and Flooding Threats in the Northwest; Eyes on Winter Storm from Plains to East Coast https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Total Snow US https://bit.ly/3zUHz6p
Customers are furious after energy supplier tells customers to cuddle pets to keep warm https://cnn.it/3K75sfW
Arctic Sea Ice Data https://bit.ly/3zT5aUZ
Northern Hemisphere Total Snowmass http://bit.ly/2lAFomU
Coronal Holes https://www.solarham.net/coronalholes...
Worldwide Volcano News https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volc...
volcano (North Island, New Zealand): series of quakes beneath summit area https://bit.ly/3zRaBUo
Ruapehu Details https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn...
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
Foot Of Snow In 3 Hours Hits Northern Japan, Still Coming Down; Record Lows Sweep Kashmir; Eastern Europe Is An Ice Box, + U.S. NatGas Jumps Higher On "Extreme Cold" Forecast For Late-Jan - Electroverse

snow-japan-3-e1642068733931.jpg

Articles Extreme Weather GSM

FOOT OF SNOW IN 3 HOURS HITS NORTHERN JAPAN, STILL COMING DOWN; RECORD LOWS SWEEP KASHMIR; EASTERN EUROPE IS AN ICE BOX, + U.S. NATGAS JUMPS HIGHER ON “EXTREME COLD” FORECAST FOR LATE-JAN
JANUARY 13, 2022 CAP ALLON

FOOT OF SNOW IN 3 HOURS HITS NORTHERN JAPAN, STILL COMING DOWN

Rapidly developing low-pressure systems combining with a fierce Siberian blast are bringing heavy snowstorms to Japan’s northern prefecture of Hokkaido and northeastern region of Tohoku, hot on the heels of last months truly historic totals.

Otoineppu Village, Hokkaido, for example, registered a whopping 31cm (a foot+) of snow during a three hour period on Wednesday.

Blizzards are continuing across northern and eastern Japan, and local weather officials are warning of road closures and near-zero visibility. The substantial drifts have also seen the cancellation of hundreds of flights across the country.

James Reynolds, self-proclaimed “snow lover”, paints the picture:

View: https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1481513390552281089
Run time is 0:18

View: https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1481565071545618433
Run time is 0:42

Looking to Thursday, even colder air is set to stream over the majority of Japan, reports nhk.or.jp, bringing heavy snow to a wide area. During a 24-hour period –Thursday morning through Friday morning– as much as 70cm (2.3ft) of snow is forecast along parts of the Sea of Japan, including Tohoku, and up to 50cm (1.64ft) in Hokkaido and Niigata.

Additional snow is expected Friday over a large portion of the Japanese archipelago.

Weather officials are advising people to be on the alert against stormy winds, high waves, and also further traffic disruptions caused by blizzards and mounting snow drifts. People should also be vigilant against avalanches and power outages. And it is advisable to keep updated on the weather and refrain from going out unless absolutely necessary, concludes the nhk.or.jp article.

View: https://twitter.com/Yumes_Japan/status/1481194464924160001

View: https://youtu.be/Y6jrjSnGcv
Run time is 1:22

RECORD LOWS SWEEP KASHMIR

The mercury plunged several degrees below the freezing mark across Kashmir on Wednesday, with the Pahalgam and Gulmarg resorts witnessing record low minimum temperature this winter, according to officials.

Pahalgam, located in south Kashmir Anantnag district, logged a low of -11.6C (11.1F). That was one of the regions lowest ever recordings–certainly the chilliest of the season so far. Gulmarg, the famous skiing resort in Baramulla district, suffered -11.5C (11.3F). That made it the resort’s fourth-straight night at -10C or below, officials confirmed — another record.

An unusual chill has been dominating northern India in recent weeks.

And the cold has started spilling south, too, breaking benchmarks in major metropolises, including Mumbai:


EASTERN EUROPE IS AN ICE BOX

While Western and Central Europe has so far escaped the harshness of winter (-3C/26.6F in SW England this morning, mind), it’s a different story for the East, including deep into transcontinental Russia.

A mass of blues and pinks (indicating below-average temps) have dominated over the past few weeks, a setup that isn’t forecast to change anytime soon. In fact, extended GFS runs only show the cold intensifying into late-Jan:


GFS 2m Temperature Anomalies, Jan 29 [tropicaltidbits.com].

Extreme frosts have invaded the Czech Republic in recent days, reports nova.cz. The village of Kvilda-Perla, Czechia reported an astonishing -27.3C (-17.1F) on January 12.

Other stations also logged extreme cold: -26C (-14.8F) was measured in Rokytská Slať, and -23.5C (-10.3F) in Jizerka. But it was freezing across the whole of the Czech Republic, continues the nova.cz article: “In Teplice nad Metují the thermometer showed -13C (8.6F), in Karlovy Vary -7.8C (18F), in Liberec -10.6C (12.9F), in Prostějov –5.5C (22.1F) and in Brno -7C (19.4F),” said Czechia meteorologist Dagmar Honsová.

Harsh frosts are set to persists this week, including further west, too, in Slovakia, Poland and Hungary where readings of -25C (-13F) are expected. Lows of -25.8C (-14.4F) have already been registered in the Baltics, and -20C (-4F) has been noted in the Ukraine, as winter-proper threatens a wider portion of the continent.

Likewise in Turkey, the basins and valleys, already besieged by deep snow cover, will see temperatures drop to as low as -30C (-22F) over the coming days, and heavy snowfall will persist across the mountainous regions. Severe frosts, although not so strong, and further snow should also surprise Turkey’s metropolitan cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, and even cities along the southern coast.

Shifting attention to the Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and Israel are on for heavy snowfall, and to quite low levels, too. While very cold weather, and snow below 1,000m (3,280ft), should again rip through northern Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and even Egypt and Libya.

U.S. NATGAS JUMPS HIGHER ON “EXTREME COLD” FORECAST FOR LATE-JAN

U.S. natural gas futures jumped 4.4% to a six-week high on Wednesday after the latest forecasts confirmed earlier outlooks for an extremely cold last week of January. Also, traders also noted production has been slow to return following freeze-offs and other weather-related declines over the New Year weekend.

Lingering cold since New Year’s Day continued to cause well freeze-offs and other production declines in several regions, reports boereport.com, including the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the Bakken in North Dakota and Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio.

Refinitiv, an American-British global provider of financial market data, recently projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 133.5 bcfd this week to 132.7 bcfd next week, helped by a brief reprieve in the cold weather, but that traders couldn’t ignore latest forecasts for the final week of January, which called for the return of “extremely cold weather” to much of the CONUS.

Refinitiv added total U.S. gas demand plus exports hit a preliminary record of 150.9 bcfd on Jan 7, topping the current record of 150.6 bcfd on Jan 30, 2019, and also the 147.2 bcfd hit on Feb 12, 2021–just before record-smashing Winter Storm Uri left millions without power after freezing gas wells and pipes in Texas and other U.S. Central states, killing 702 people in Texas alone.

Traders said demand for U.S. LNG will remain strong so long as global gas prices keep trading well above U.S. futures as utilities around the world scramble for LNG cargoes to replenish worryingly low stockpiles in Europe and meet surging demand in Asia:


CANADA

A quick word on Canada — “freezing”. Polar lows are sweeping eastern swathes of the country this week, and electricity consumption is hitting record levels across multiple provinces.

Taking Quebec, where record-high consumption was noted on Tuesday, January 11, after the mercury took a plunged. According to data provided by Canadian meteorologist Simon Legalt: -38C (-36.4F) was registered in Chibougamau, Abitibi and Matagami; wind chills touched -44C (-47.2F) In Sibukoma; Montreal suffered -27C (-16.6F), with the city’s usually packed parks and streets deserted; while in Toronto, daytime highs were holding at around -20C (-4F).

Environment Canada has issued warnings of extreme cold across Canada’s east, including Quebec, Ontario, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, with the west enjoying a much-needed break for the recent historic lows and snows:


The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

Implications in 2022 for Way You Eat and Buy (Bob Kudla FULL Interview) - YouTube

Implications in 2022 for Way You Eat and Buy (Bob Kudla FULL Interview)
2,650 views
Jan 14, 2022

View: https://youtu.be/_pBI8OuO08Q
Run time is 41:26

Synopsis provided:

FULL INTERVIEW: Bob Kudla from Tradelikeagenius.com and David DuByne of ADAPT 2030 discuss how fertilizer shortages are destabilizing countries with rising food prices coupled with natural gas & electricity shortfalls leading to massive crop yield declines. 2022 will be remembered as food insecurity and rationing with a market crash rivaling 1928-1929.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Two new ones from Oppenheimer, the first is the volcanic eruption to 55K feet, that's high enough to throw ash into the atmosphere and affect the climate:

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Explodes To 55,000ft - YouTube

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Explodes To 55,000ft
11,435 views
Premiered 16 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/zxZ3dmeI7wY
Run time is 2:33

Synopsis provided:

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20220113/1600Z ONGOING ERUPTION to 55000 ft (16800 m) https://bit.ly/3K7jyhh
NZZO AUCKLAND OCEANIC FIR VA ERUPTION MT HUNGA TONGA-HUNGA HA\'APAI PSN S2032 W17523 VA CLD OBS AT 1811Z WI S1915 W17630 - S1915 W17345 - S2200 W17345 - S2200 W17630 - S1915 W17630 SFC/FL500 FCST AT 0011Z WI S1915 W17630 - S1915 W17115 - S2100 W17115 - S2230 W17400 - S2200 https://bit.ly/31WoVP7
Himawari 8 Color Loop https://bit.ly/3KlqNlZ
Black and White Loop https://bit.ly/3zWD63c
More Info On Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai
https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn...
 

TxGal

Day by day
The second pocast from Oppenheimer:

Major Snowstorm Will Roar Across The Midwest, South And East Coast - Hunga Tonga Erupts To 55,000ft - YouTube

Major Snowstorm Will Roar Across The Midwest, South And East Coast - Hunga Tonga Erupts To 55,000ft
4,142 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/4kS1dmqaeuk
Run time is 11:54

Synopsis provided:

Winter Rain and Snow Wipe Out Worst of Drought in California https://bit.ly/3FvJW0G
A major snowstorm is forecast to roar across the Midwest https://bit.ly/3tGxnh1
Sharp snowfall gradient across Twin Cities https://bit.ly/3ranB3G
Iowa's forecast for Friday's winter storm warning https://bit.ly/3nlMpEI
Spaghetti freezes mid-air in New Hampshire mountain’s extreme cold https://bit.ly/3Km8uNx
Extreme cold warning issued for Thunder Bay https://bit.ly/3qsCyPA
Extreme Cold Weather Alert terminated for Toronto https://bit.ly/3Ftuan3
Extreme cold warnings in place in northern Manitoba https://bit.ly/3I6JSWK
Winter Storm to Impact Central and Eastern U.S. https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Total Snow US https://bit.ly/3KasEtr Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20220113/1600Z ONGOING ERUPTION to 55000 ft https://bit.ly/3qqoExj
Volcanic Ash Advisories https://bit.ly/31WoVP7
Himawari 8 Southern Hemisphere Sectors https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/
An M1.8 Solar Flare was observed off the northeast limb https://www.solarham.net/
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
Yakutat, Alaska Declares Snow Emergency-Roofs Collapsing; Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Erupts to 55,000 Feet; Snowcat Buried In Colorado; + "Big Freeze" On The Way For U.S. - Electroverse

gfs_asnow_eus_65-e1642153726230.png

Extreme Weather GSM

YAKUTAT, ALASKA DECLARES SNOW EMERGENCY–ROOFS COLLAPSING; HUNGA TONGA-HUNGA HA’APAI ERUPTS TO 55,000 FEET; SNOWCAT BURIED IN COLORADO; + “BIG FREEZE” ON THE WAY FOR U.S.
JANUARY 14, 2022 CAP ALLON

YAKUTAT, ALASKA DECLARES SNOW EMERGENCY–ROOFS COLLAPSING

The City and Borough of Yakutat declared a ‘local disaster emergency‘ this week, citing the imminent threat of roof collapse caused by high snow loads across the Southeast Alaska city. In response, The National Guard deployed service members and vehicles via military airlift.

As reported by alaskapublic.org, Borough Manager Jon Erickson said Yakutat has has seen 6 feet of snow over the past few weeks, causing intermittent power outages, damage to buildings and school closures. The city keeps four snow shovelers on retainer, but Erickson said the team is too small to keep up with the accumulating snow.

“We’ve been shoveling off, but right now we just don’t have enough shovelers,” he said. “So we contacted emergency management, and they’re probably going to be sending a team of 10 shovelers down here.”

View: https://twitter.com/AdriftAlchemist/status/1481022359167553537

The newly built $11 million Community Health Center is badly damaged, with repair work expected to run into the millions.

“We closed the Community Health Center so we don’t have any outpatient service,” said Erickson. “All we have is emergency service and ambulance service. That’s really what’s kind of scary.”

The story is a similar one across Southeast Alaska.

In Juneau, substantial snow shut schools, state offices and the community’s largest grocery store this week, and the roofs of at least two buildings gave-way due to the heavy load, including a commercial building in Lemon Creek:

A collapsed building.
Collapsed roof in Juneau. No one was injured, officials said. [City and Borough of Juneau].

While in the small Admiralty Island community of Angoon, freezing temperatures have taken a toll on the already-stressed water facility, causing village-wide water shortages.

Historic cold has been gripping the majority of Alaska in recent weeks. In the south-eastern town of Ketchikan, for example, temperatures dropped to -18C (-0.4F) on December 25 & 26 — the town’s coldest Christmas period of the past century+, with the old records being the -14.4C (6F) in 1967, and the -15C (5F) from 1917.

In fact, the past few months have been exceptionally frigid. ‘Alaska had a November to remember’, is how natureworldnews.com put it. The town of King Salmon suffered its coldest Nov on record, averaging just -15.6C (4F). And it wasn’t alone. According to National Weather Service data, many Alaskan locales suffered either their coldest or one of their coldest Novembers and Decembers in recorded history — a phenomenon tied to the behavior of the jet stream (for more on that, click the link below).


HUNGA TONGA-HUNGA HA’APAI ERUPTS TO 50,000 FEET
Following Dec 19th’s blast to 49,200 feet, powerful explosive activity has continued at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano.

The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Wellington warned Thurs, Jan 13 of a plume rising to 55,000 ft (16.8km),

Satellite imagery confirms the high-level eruption:

View: https://twitter.com/MyRadarWX/status/1481747773242363908
Run time is 0:23

View: https://twitter.com/RedGeoChile/status/1481720391005396994

From available satellite images and pictures, the presence of water is likely causing significant explosive interaction (phreatomagmatic activity) of water and magma.

This looks to be a VEI 2 eruption (maybe VEI 3) — and although noteworthy, it will likely have limited impact on global temperatures. We’re still waiting for that ‘big one’, that monster VEI 6 or 7 that shoots a seemingly endless stream of particulates into the stratosphere that block the sunlight and plunge Earth’s average temperature 2C almost overnight.

It’s coming…

SNOWCAT BURIED IN COLORADO

Crews at Wolf Creek Ski Area in Pagosa Springs undertook some serious shoveling this week after one of their snowcats was completely covered by the recent record-breaking snowfall.

“Mining for the goods,” is how they described it on Facebook, “extraction of the Horseshoe Bowl Snowcat … How it started vs. how it’s going.”

View: https://www.facebook.com/wolfcreekski/posts/10164892387243504

The snowcat took about 12 hours to free, according to resort officials.

The area has received 217 inches of snow so far this season, driving the area’s snowpack to well-above-average levels.

Likewise across the Northern Hemisphere as a whole, total snow mass is holding 400 Gigatons above the 1982-2012 norm:


[FMI]

“BIG FREEZE” ON THE WAY FOR U.S.

A winter storm is lining up to deliver yet more heavy snows and freezing lows to the U.S. this weekend, most notably in the Eastern half of the CONUS where long-standing cold records from the Dakotas to the Northeast are under threat.

Dangerous ice, snow and winds will makes their way through America’s Midwest, South and East over the weekend.

According to the Weather Channel, the winter storm –which they’ve named “Storm Izzy”– will move from North Dakota down to northern Georgia and then up to Maine Friday through Monday in a U-shaped track.

An “active jet stream plunging southward across two-thirds” of the United States will make its way from the Northern Plains to New England in a matter of four days, reads a portion of the report.

The National Weather Service has issued various winter storm warnings, advisories, and watches across areas of the Midwest and South. The storm could result in a significant bomb cyclone or a nor’easter hitting New York City Sunday night.

Dave Dombek, a senior meteorologist at Accuweather, told The New York Post: “A lot can change in the next few days, but given what we’re seeing right now, that’s our thinking — that there certainly will be enough snow at least for a long enough period of time that it will mess up travel … it could be a real mess for a time.”

The Weather Channel report continues: “Snow will continue to spread southeastward during [Friday] from the Northern Plains into parts of Minnesota, Iowa and eastern Nebraska. Snow could be heavy in some of those areas.

“Friday night, snow should eventually taper off in North Dakota, South Dakota and much of Minnesota, but will continue –heavy in spots– over eastern Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, northeast Kansas and western Illinois.

“Rain changing to snow could spread into southern Missouri, southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.”

On Saturday, the snow is expected to move south through areas of southern Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas, with the southern Appalachians receiving “a lot of snow”.

As Saturday night comes around, “a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected to develop from parts of northern Georgia into northern South Carolina, North Carolina and southwestern Virginia,” continues the report.

The storm will then make its way from Arkansas to southern Missouri and to Kentucky and certain areas of Tennessee.

The Weather Channel notes that from Sunday on, “the uncertainty in the forecast details is still significant, dependent on the exact track of low pressure and the extent of cold air.” But adds that on Monday, parts of West Virginia, western and central Pennsylvania and New York state into New England could see the most substantial falls of the entire event, with “heavy, wind-driven snow” sweeping much of the Eastern Seaboard (confirmed by the latest GFS run below).

Already, record low temperatures are hitting the Northeast and upper Midwest. And while forecasts remain uncertain –with the jet stream almost impossible to predict nowadays– this is shaping-up to be a record-setting event.


GFS Total Snowfall (inches) Jan 14 – Jan 30 [tropicaltidbits.com]

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Tonga had a huge eruption, should be very high on the VEI scale. There are several thread on the forum about that eruption.

From Oppenheimer Ranch Project:

Geomagnetic Storm Ongoing - Snow Pummeling The Midwest & East - Hunga Tonga 86,000 Lightning Strikes - YouTube

Geomagnetic Storm Ongoing - Snow Pummeling The Midwest & East - Hunga Tonga 86,000 Lightning Strikes
6,445 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/c8AxBbFBG8A
Run time is 9:24

Synopsis provided:

Winter storm brings heavy snow and ice and may cause power outages https://cbsn.ws/3Fp0N5i
Central Iowa continues to see snow https://bit.ly/3FpV0MJ
Winter storm set to hit South Carolina, North Carolina this weekend https://bit.ly/3A0HKwZ
Winter Storm to Impact the Central and Eastern U.S. https://www.weather.gov/
GFS Model Total Snow US https://bit.ly/3Ft3nHt
UPDATE: The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continues to point south (-14nT). The solar wind speed is fairly low by solar standards (365 km/s), however aurora will be likely at higher latitudes while the solar wind remains in this state. https://www.solarham.net/
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga): major eruption sent ash up to 17 km, 86 000 lightnings in plume https://bit.ly/33k1QXe
FUTUREVOLC conducts exercise for an eruption of Katla volcano https://bit.ly/3GIe6z2
and more
 

TxGal

Day by day
From Adapt 2030, this podcast is not 100% GSM-related, but it addresses the food chain issues and societal breakdowns that have occurred in past GSMs:

Beginnings of Society Unwinding at the Seams - YouTube

Beginnings of Society Unwinding at the Seams
12,473 views
Premiered 11 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/5En0kb8-ZcE
Run time is 11:19

Synopsis provided:

Economic forecasts miss by 19X the expert projections. Stores in Australia begin purchase limits once again and train robberies from Chicago to L.A, its like we are back into the 1880s again.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Lots of volcanic ash going up into the atmosphere, from a variety of volcanoes:

Volcanoes Today - summary of volcanic activity world-wide / VolcanoDiscovery

Volcanoes Today, 15 Jan 2022: Fuego volcano, Karymsky, Semeru, Reventador, Sangay, Yasur, Nevado del Ruiz, Sabancaya
Sat, 15 Jan 2022, 14:00
14:00 PM | BY: VN

Satellite image of Karymsky volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Karymsky volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Suwanose-jima volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Suwanose-jima volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Semeru volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Semeru volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Yasur volcano on 14 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Yasur volcano on 14 Jan 2022

Vigorous eruption from Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano yesterday (image: Tonga Geological Services/facebook)

Vigorous eruption from Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano yesterday (image: Tonga Geological Services/facebook)

Ash column from the eruption at Semisopochnoi volcano yesterday (image: AVO)

Ash column from the eruption at Semisopochnoi volcano yesterday (image: AVO)

Satellite image of Fuego volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Fuego volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Sabancaya volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Satellite image of Sabancaya volcano on 15 Jan 2022

Karymsky (Kamchatka): Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 14000 ft (4300 m) altitude or flight level 140 and is moving at 25 kts in W direction.
The full report is as follows: POSS ERUPTION OBS AT 20220115/0410Z FL140 EXTD W OBS VA DTG:15/0430Z to 14000 ft (4300 m)

Suwanose-jima (Ryukyu Islands): Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report: ERUPTED AT 20220115/0702Z FL050 EXTD SE OBS VA DTG:15/0700Z

Semeru (East Java, Indonesia): Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Darwin warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 13000 ft (4000 m) altitude or flight level 130 .
The full report is as follows: VA TO FL130 OBS FM GND 15/0215Z, MOV N OBS VA DTG:15/0215Z to 13000 ft (4000 m)

Yasur (Tanna Island, Vanuatu): (15 Jan) Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Wellington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 5000 ft (1500 m) altitude or flight level 050 and is moving at 05 kts in SE direction.
The full report is as follows: LOW LEVEL INTERMITTENT ERUPTION OBS VA DTG:14/2355Z to 5000 ft (1500 m)

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (Tonga, Tonga Islands): Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Wellington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 52000 ft (15800 m) altitude or flight level 520 and is moving at 05 kts in N direction.
The full report is as follows: NEW ERUPTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OBS VA DTG:15/0439Z to 52000 ft (15800 m)

...15 Jan:
After almost two weeks calm period, the activity has picked up again with a high phreatomagmatic eruptive phase.
A spectacular explosion occurred at 15:14 UTC yesterday characterized by dark and dense masses of pyroclastic material and ground-hugging currents known as base surges, typical signs of surtseyan and phreatomagmatic eruptions. An increasingly larger and dense plume sent ash up to 55,000 ft (17,000 m) altitude. Note gravity waves rippling across umbrella region in the plume as can be seen in the satellite animation.
... [read more]

Semisopochnoi (United States, Aleutian Islands): The Alaska Volcano Observatory surveillance camera's observed a small eruption at the volcano occurred about 14:45 local time yesterday.
An ash plume from the North Cerberus cone reached 7,000 ft (2,100 m) altitude.
Source: Alaska Volcano Observatory volcano activity update 14 January 2022

Fuego (Guatemala): Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Washington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 15000 ft (4600 m) altitude or flight level 150 .
The full report is as follows: OCNL LGT VA EMS OBS IN STLT IMAGERY to 15000 ft (4600 m)

Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia): (15 Jan) Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Washington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 22000 ft (6700 m) altitude or flight level 220 .
The full report is as follows: NEW VA EMS to 22000 ft (6700 m)

Sangay (Ecuador): Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Washington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 19000 ft (5800 m) altitude or flight level 190 .
The full report is as follows: LGT VA EMS to 19000 ft (5800 m)

Reventador (Ecuador): Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Washington warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 14000 ft (4300 m) altitude or flight level 140 .
The full report is as follows: LGT VA EMS to 14000 ft (4300 m)

Sabancaya (Peru): Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Buenos Aires warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 24000 ft (7300 m) altitude or flight level 240 and is moving at 10 kts in SW direction.
The full report is as follows: continuous ash emissions to 24000 ft (7300 m)
 

rafter

Since 1999
Also from The Oppenheimer Ranch Project:

You Are Here, Evidence of Massive Floods & Pole Shifts Activated Like Clockwork, Geologist Diamond - YouTube

You Are Here, Evidence of Massive Floods & Pole Shifts Activated Like Clockwork, Geologist Diamond
5,465 views
Premiered 8 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/n9bgyqD0PFs

Run time is 49:10

No synopsis provided except as suggested by the title

More of a mine tour and chat. I sure enjoyed the scenery since we lived in Pagosa for 10 years and used to like to go to Creede!
 

TxGal

Day by day
The Oppenheimer Ranch Project has a new podcast out:

Hunga Tonga Eruption And Tsunami Science And Analysis - Footage Like You Have Never Seen Before! - YouTube

Hunga Tonga Eruption And Tsunami Science And Analysis - Footage Like You Have Never Seen Before!
31,305 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/3awpX1GHjis
Run time is 10:04

Synopsis provided:

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga) activity update: tsunami hit the US and Mexico coast, shockwave detected across vast global areas https://bit.ly/3Kj3yIX
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga): dangerous eruption with huge ash cloud up to 20 km triggered tsunami, evacuations ordered https://bit.ly/3A1cw94
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga) activity update: dramatic morphological changes to shape https://bit.ly/33sj1FY
M 5.8 Volcanic Eruption - 68 km NNW of Nuku‘alofa, Tonga https://on.doi.gov/3fvpF0B
Volcanic Ash SIGMETs received in the last 24 hours https://bit.ly/31WoVP7
Sonic boom from Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai Volcano https://bit.ly/3quvv90
Here is a order one attempt to model this tsunami https://bit.ly/328tLJe
Soquel Creek in Santa Cruz flowing *backwards* because of a tsunami https://bit.ly/323Ncmh
#Tsunami atingem a costa do #Peru https://bit.ly/3fKb4ih
Tonga Tsunami Unseen Footage | January15, 2022 https://bit.ly/3FB8CF0
 

TxGal

Day by day
This is an important message from Ice Age Farmer - if you can't read it because you're on a phone and it's too small, please go to his Telegram page (Ice Age Farmer – Telegram) and read it there (I haven't joined Telegram, so can only do a web capture to bring these over here):

1642343607233.png
 

TxGal

Day by day
Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out:

An In-depth Look at Why Tonga Erupted - YouTube

An In-depth Look at Why Tonga Erupted
26,618 views
Premiered 11 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/IlbD62i1Y2g
Run time is 29:48

Synopsis provided:

An in-depth look at the Tonga eruption which sent ash to 95,000 feet and that ash cloud is heading to Australia. What does this mean for global agriculture and crop yields, food pricing and can we foresee any other large eruptions from now to 2024?
 

TxGal

Day by day
Hunga Tonga's Plume Was Stratospheric (98,425 ft); At Least 6 Killed In Japan Snowstorms; Record-Breaking Winter Storm Slams East Coast And Canada; + Fight... - Electroverse

dark-yet-2-e1642422176880.jpg

Articles Extreme Weather GSM Volcanic & Seismic Activity

HUNGA TONGA’S PLUME WAS STRATOSPHERIC (98,425 FT); AT LEAST 6 KILLED IN JAPAN SNOWSTORMS; RECORD-BREAKING WINTER STORM SLAMS EAST COAST AND CANADA; + FIGHT…
JANUARY 17, 2022 CAP ALLON

HUNGA TONGA’S PLUME WAS STRATOSPHERIC (98,425 FT)

According to the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) lidar-based satellite, measuring the global distribution of ozone as a remote sensing method, it seems the Jan 15 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai had a maximum column height of approx. 30km (98,425ft)–and so well into the stratosphere.

Aerosol plumes (tiny droplets of sulfuric acid, as well as fine ash particles) have been spreading out across vast stretches of the southern hemisphere, reports volcanodiscovery.com, exerting a cooling effect as they go. Aerosols shade sunlight and so reduce terrestrial temperatures. Particulates that reach the stratosphere can linger there for years or even decades at a time.

View: https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1482229220415721475

View: https://twitter.com/FirstName__Last/status/1482259089682018304
Run time 0:04

Volcanic eruptions are one of the key forcings driving Earth into its next bout of global cooling.

Today’s worldwide uptick (volcanic AND seismic) is thought to be tied to low solar activity, coronal holes, a waning magnetosphere, and the influx of Cosmic Rays penetrating silica-rich magma.

AT LEAST 6 KILLED IN JAPAN SNOWSTORMS

At least six people have died after strong winter storms walloped northern and western Japan.

Late last week and over the weekend, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) urged vigilance against high waves, exceptional cold, ice, and powerful blizzards.

The heaviest snowfall was expected to hit the plains of the country’s Pacific Ocean side through Saturday, particularly in the north, but also in the more central Hokuriku region where localized accumulations were forecast to threaten records.

Almost a meter (3.3ft) of snow ended up falling in the Kanto-Koshin and the Hokuriku regions in just a 24-hour period on Saturday, with substantial falls noted across much of Japan, accumulations that add to the 30cm (a foot) that settled during a 3 hour spell on Thursday:

View: https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1481565071545618433
Run time is 0:42

View: https://youtu.be/AAF2_0VNo7I
Run time is 1:07

RECORD-BREAKING WINTER STORM SLAMS EAST COAST AND CANADA

A major winter storm slammed much of the eastern United States with snow, ice and high winds over the weekend, causing travel chaos and widespread power outages.

Winter weather alerts stretched more than 1,000 miles (1,609 km) from Alabama to Maine, with the governors of Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina all declaring emergencies due to the storm.

200,000 homes and businesses in New York State, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia were STILL without power into the early hours of Monday morning, according to poweroutage.us.

While in North Carolina, where a host of all-time snowfall records were broken, and at least two people are known to have died.

Focusing on the snow records, they were plentiful and widespread. To highlight just a few:

Ronald Reagan Airport and Dulles Airport, both Virginaia, busted daily records over the weekend, and a number of flights were cancelled (a total of 3,000+ into or out of the U.S. on Sunday alone, with 8,000+ delayed, according to FlightAware data).

Buffalo, New York’s 10 inches (25.4cm) of snow on Sunday broke the daily record of 8.3 inches (21cm) from 1958.

While Asheville, North Carolina also received 10 inches on Sunday, which took out the previous record of 7 inches (17.8cm) set back in 1891 (some reports have the year at 1881):

View: https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1482892986786717697
Run time is 1:12

I can’t do the number of new snowfall records justice — they run into the hundreds.

Moreover, this winter storm is far from over with the highest snow totals still to come–most notably along the spine of the Appalachians as well as across the lower Great Lakes, but also along much of the eastern seaboard, as well as further inland:

View: https://twitter.com/JaniceDean/status/1483019345521381378

Also, Michael Knowles — stop asking questions:

View: https://twitter.com/michaeljknowles/status/1482814972732317696

Accompanying the record snow was a pervasive blast of polar cold.

Frigid temperatures lingered across New England on Sunday, with wind chills in northern Vermont reported at -27F (-33C).

While in Boston, a cold emergency was declared over the weekend as wind chills held below zero (-17.8C).

Turning attention to Canada, the storm is forecast to dump between 20 to 40cm (8 to 16 inches) of snow through Monday morning over much of southern and eastern provinces, including Ontario, where blizzards have already caused widespread issues. In Toronto, home of Canada’s busiest airport, accumulations of 20cm (8 inches) are expected, according to Environment Canada, as a record-challenging chill persists and compounds the country’s record-high electricity demand, energy shortages and skyrocketing prices — a new snowfall record will likely be set in Ottawa for Jan 17, surpassing the current record of 11.7cm (4.6 inches), set back in 1972.

FIGHT

The “climate crisis” is just one cog of The Great Reset. In that regards, at least to my mind, the pieces are beginning to fit together, things are making more sense. CAGW is an excuse for a tougher, stricter world where government interference and limits to our freedoms become commonplace–with the Pandemic and the stoking of racial tensions being others, of many.

However, these so-called ’emergencies’ haven’t been severe enough to justify the colossal transfer of power and wealth that we’ve seen in recent years, not by a long shot — I struggle to imagine a scenario where they ever could be. Government interference is bad for both the individual and the wider civilization as a whole. The literature is very clear on that.

For those still in doubt, look around you, objectively — look at Canada and Australia: ‘the test cases’. Today, even at these latter stages of the disease, an experimental medication is still not only being prescribed to people but forced upon them, including upon children, and draconian restrictions are being tightened. But to what end? What is their reasoning for such a middle-finger to humanity? To protect others? Ha. The vaccines aren’t and never were capable of slowing the spread of COVID. This was a lie used to dupe the trusting and the fearful. Jabbing children makes even less sense. The best I can come up with here is that it may shield the wider community (i.e. adults). But who wants to live in that world? Honestly, who are the adults out there that believe injecting kids, an age group never been at risk from COVID, with a rushed drug, one with such concerning side effects, to protect themselves is a sacrifice worth taking? This is cowardly. And illogical.

You also have to ask why dissenting voices are being censored? Why is it that all the critical thinkers, the ones seeking the truth by asking pertinent questions, are being removed from the public discussion? Why is every query, even those made by prominent experts in the relevant fields of study, shut down by the ‘fact-checkers’ (Orwell’s ‘Thought Police’)? Why is spreading ‘vaccine hesitancy’ considered a sin? Why is thinking out loud now a crime?


“Tolerance will reach such a level that intelligent people will be banned from thinking so as not to offend the imbeciles.”


Additionally, the information they sought must, by now, be compete. They now know how all of us respond to such a shake-up of the routine, both individually and as a collective. They know who they can count on to behave, and who will be the troublemakers. Depressingly, the numbers are on their side–even with this recent turning of the tide, which I fear is to little, too late.

The implementation of their ‘end goal’ must be nigh. Whether that comes in the shape of a financial crash rivaling The Great Depression, with bank bail ins, universal basic income rolled-out, and the introduction of a digital ‘Fed Coin’ completing the enslavement, is still anyone’s guess… but one thing’s for sure, if their track record is anything to go by, the next stage surely won’t be good for freedom, for autonomy, and for humanity.

Fighting isn’t yet futile, so stand up.

It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

Prepare accordingly — learn the facts, relocate if need be and grow your own.
 

TxGal

Day by day
Hunga Tonga Eruption Likely A Small VEI 5, Cooling Implications Explained - Electroverse

tonga-volcano-09-e1642501551392.jpg

Volcanic & Seismic Activity
HUNGA TONGA ERUPTION LIKELY A SMALL VEI 5, COOLING IMPLICATIONS EXPLAINED
JANUARY 18, 2022 CAP ALLON

HUNGA TONGA ERUPTION LIKELY A SMALL VEI 5

Information out of Tonga has been scarce since Jan 15’s violent volcanic eruption, but the puzzle is beginning to be pieced together, albeit slowly. According to volcanologist Professor Shane Cronin, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai delivered the biggest explosion since Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines some 30 years ago (VEI 6).

University of Auckland’s Cronin said scenes on the ground immediately after the eruption would have appeared apocalyptic: “The clouds that people could see in the distance, the booming noises and then the waves coming from the first tsunami…The next step is when the ash clouds spread across Tongatapu, and that ash cloud is so dense with fine ash particles that it blocks the sun completely, so it gets really dark.”

Those ash particles were propelled to heights of 30km (98,425ft) –well into the stratosphere– where they then ballooned out, forming an umbrella with a diameter of 260km (162 miles).

“The large and explosive lateral spread of the eruption suggests that it was probably the biggest one since the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo,” added Cronin. This is a contention gathering support in some circles. However, estimations still vary widely, ranging from a mid-VEI 4 to a powerful VEI 6. The full details of the eruption likely won’t be confirmed for weeks.

View: https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1482229220415721475

Cronin and his research team camped on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in 2015 and noticed that the surrounding coral reef was lifting up, suggesting that magma was building underneath the volcano and could cause an eruption in the near future.
The team found evidence of two previous mega-eruptions in AD 1100 and AD 200, suggesting they occur roughly once every 1000 years — making us due for a third.

View: https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1482451227048759297

COOLING IMPLICATIONS EXPLAINED

The Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991 (VEI 6) pumped 15 million tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere and cooled the planet by 1C for the next year and a half. And although data on Hunga Tonga is still sketchy, it is thought the explosion released 400,000 metric tons of SO2, which would put it on par with a La Soufriere (2021) or a Calbuco (2015/16), both VEI 4s, rather than a Mt St Helens (1980) or El Chichón (1982), both VEI 5s.

The confusion, and the reason some have suggested Jan 15’s explosion was a VEI 6, is down to the sheer size of that monstrous eruption plume (with plume size being key component when indexing a volcanic eruption, along with the thickness of ejected ash and the volume of SO2). However, Saturday’s impressive 30km ash column is likely explained by Hunga Tonga being a submarine volcano: The abundance of ocean water at shallow depths greatly amplified the size of the explosion, making the eruption far larger than if the same event had occurred on land. This line of thinking, especially when combined with Hunga only releasing 400,000 tons of SO2 (a gas released by all volcanic eruptions–the measurement of which closely aligns with the amount of eruptive magma, whether that be through the flow of lava or the ejection of fine ash) adds support to Jan’s eruption being a mid/large-VEI 4 or a small VEI 5 at best, rather than anything bigger.

For reference, the eruptions of Mt St Helens (1980) and El Chichón (1982) released 1 million and 7 million of SO2, respectively, even though they had lower plume heights, of 24km and 29km, respectively. Both were documented as VEI 5s.

View: https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1482241177482981376
Run time is 1:49

Still, it is likely that Tonga’s volcanic eruption will impact global temperatures, and a colder upcoming winter across the southern hemisphere is likely. This is the view of Climate scientist Jim Salinger, who said it could take a few months to kick in, but could ultimately lead to a cooling of as much as 0.5C across the likes of Australia and New Zealand, lasting until spring.

Salinger said it would be nothing like after the Pinatubo eruption of 1991, when there were some “very cold and horrible winters”. But in New Zealand, “it would mean that it might be a bit cooler than normal,” he added.

In conclusion, Hunga Tonga’s Jan 15 eruption was not the ‘big one’, it wasn’t that monster VEI 6/7 that cools the planet by 2C and instantly propels us –in combo with an ever-waning sun– into Earth’s next period of global cooling; however…

IS A LARGER ERUPTION IMMINENT?

Chances are, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai isn’t quite done yet. The volcano has continued to erupt at a low level since the weekend, and further explosive events are likely over the coming days or weeks. The question is, what does it have left?

Ordinarily, subsequent volcanic eruptions don’t tend to be as powerful as the initial explosion. However, with the collapse of the main caldera –with 95 percent of the original island now destroyed/underwater– and the infiltration of sea water into the magma chamber, Hunga Tonga is throwing volcanologists something of a curve ball.

“The concern at the moment is how little information we have and that’s scary,” said Janine Krippner, a New Zealand-based volcanologist with the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. “When the vent is below water, nothing can tell us what will happen next.”

Superheated magma and a huge volume of volcanic gases rose quickly and met the cool seawater, intensifying the explosion, said Raymond Cas, a professor of volcanology at Australia’s Monash University. The fear is, something similar could be setting up again — further eruptions will be intensified by the vast amount of sea water filling the caldera/chamber, building pressure.

It’s a wait and see, though. “Once the volcano is de-gassed, it will settle down,” said American meteorologist, Chris Vagasky. But we don’t know if we’re there yet. Referring again to evidence of Hunga Tonga’s historical mega-eruptions, which appear to occur once every 1000 years, previously in AD 1100 and AD 200, these ancient sequences have always contained multiple high-level explosions over a closely-spaced period; thus, similarly sized –or even larger– eruptions are expected over the coming days/weeks/months/years — your guess is as good as mine… all eyes on Tonga.

VOLCANIC TSUNAMI

Hunga Tonga’s eruption was a true spectacle, but rarer still was the resulting tsunami.

As explained by NIWA hydrodynamics scientist and tsunami expert Dr Emily Lane, most tsunami are triggered by underwater earthquakes, only about 5 percent of historical tsunamis have been caused by volcanic eruptions,

“We haven’t seen a volcanic tsunami of this magnitude in over 100 years,” said Lane.

“This is pretty much shattering the mould. One of the tricky things about tsunamis is that they happen very infrequently; think about the Japanese tsunami and its predecessor was over 1000 years beforehand. We haven’t seen very many volcanic tsunamis. We’ve certainly never seen a volcanic tsunami that has affected the entire Pacific in this way.”

Hunga Tonga’s eruption triggered a landslide as much of the volcanoes edifice side into the ocean. The landslide had an estimated volume of 0.5km3 — one of the largest in recorded history, with that figure likely to be revised higher.

Lane said the only similar volcanic tsunami event was Indonesia’s Krakatau eruption in 1883, which killed tens of thousands of people and obliterated the island.

View: https://twitter.com/sakakimoana/status/1482207518076342278
Run time is 1:42
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
So... has it occurred to anyone else that we *really* dodged a bullet with La Palma? If this current eruption caused tsunamis *thousands of miles* around the globe from the eruption, it may be the "crazy" predictions of a huge tsunami on the East coast may have been accurate... LA Palma is only 700 miles from the east coast.

Summerthyme
 

TxGal

Day by day
The Oppenheimer Ranch Project has a new podcast out:

Hunga Tonga Volcano Will Cool The Earth - Preliminary Measurements Estimate 39 km Eruption Cloud - YouTube

Hunga Tonga Volcano Will Cool The Earth - Preliminary Measurements Estimate 39 km Eruption Cloud
68,285 views
Premiered 9 hours ago

View: https://youtu.be/TbbIVGStRbQ
Run time is 9:53

Synopsis provided:

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga) activity update: preliminary measurements estimate 39 km eruption cloud https://bit.ly/3KmnH0W
VEI Index Visual https://bit.ly/2PKpXrt First images of Tonga volcano damage show entire communities covered in thick ash https://cnn.it/3GHiSgh
SO2 Over Australia https://bit.ly/3GJC0u7
Waves from eruption in Tonga cause oil spill in Peru https://abcn.ws/33Hmn7X
NASA scientists estimate Tonga blast at 10 megatons https://n.pr/3KodcKj
Shockwave Graphic https://bit.ly/3GKdYPH
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano (Tonga) activity update: latest measurements confirmed 30 km column height containing 0.4 Tg SO2 https://bit.ly/3A5C9pk
2D Map Of Aerosols https://go.nasa.gov/3GJb2TB
The Atmospheric Impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption https://go.nasa.gov/3fEsKeR
Mt. St. Helens https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_S...
The Tambora eruption in 1815 https://bit.ly/3GLyeAw
Stratospheric Volcanoes vs Temperature https://bit.ly/3fEsPzb https://bit.ly/3GGezSs https://bit.ly/3fzGhEA
Tonga’s volcanic eruption may harm environment https://reut.rs/3tAUObn
 
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