ECON FUNG RED *.*Economic Implications Concerning The Closing of the Strait of Hormuz
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Plain Jane
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| *SOYBEAN | 1,225.75 | +11.75 | +0.97 |
| *WHEAT | 597.75 | +3 | +0.5 |
| *SILVER | 83.92 | -1.615 | -1.89 |
| *CORN | 462 | +1.75 | +0.38 |
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| US 1-YR | 3.656 | +0.067 |
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| US 30-YR | 4.887 | +0.031 |
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Strait to Brrrrrrr....
Honesty would fix all of this.
No1Mar 12, 2026
The war started. Oil predictably surged. But gold fell, silver fell, bonds fell.
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That’s the part nobody could explain. Iran was struck, the Gulf effectively closed (unless you happened to be Chinese). Oil spiked. Logically. But you know, gold is supposed to be the insurance against geopolitical instability. And those were the kind of headlines that used to send precious metals vertical. Instead, gold opened slightly higher on Sunday March 2nd and then spent the rest of the week chopping. Silver followed suit, just with more volatility. Had you been on a digital detox course, and you just came back… You wouldn’t know that the whole frickin’ Middle East was on fire!!
So what happened?
Oil happened. And then oil happened to everything else.
Crude went from $70 to $119 in ten days. Think about that number for a second. $119. The last time oil was there was March 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine, when the commodity markets went briefly insane and the financial system discovered it had quietly built itself on the assumption that nothing important would ever actually happen. It nearly came apart that spring. Nickel got suspended on the LME. Margin calls cascaded through commodity desks globally. It didn’t break, but only just.
At $119, equity markets dropped on recession and inflation fears simultaneously. Portfolios that had been managing risk perfectly fine at $70 oil were suddenly offside on everything else - corporate margins, consumer spending, rate expectations. When those positions started bleeding, you don't get to choose what you sell. You sell what's liquid. Gold is liquid. Silver is liquid. High-grade bonds are liquid. You sell what has a bid. And fast! Before your broker does it for you.
That’s why gold fell during a war. Not because anyone changed their view on gold. Because someone needed cash before the close.
Silver fell harder because it always does - smaller market, thinner book, more violent moves in both directions. Although with this specific war, there’s another dimension to it. A metallurgic one.
Silver has two demand profiles. There is the monetary bid: safe haven, inflation hedge, and general currency distrust. But silver is also an industrial metal. Solar panels, electronics, EVs, conductors of every description. And a prolonged disruption that chews through energy supply and manufacturing throughput eventually destroys industrial demand too. The monetary buyers front-run the crisis. The industrial collapse follows at its own pace, and if the crisis drags long enough, it can overwhelm the early gains entirely.
That’s the tension. Gold doesn’t have it - gold’s demand is almost entirely monetary. Silver is always fighting itself.
Nothing about the physical thesis that I’ve been outlining ad infinitum changed. The vaults kept draining. Shanghai kept paying a 14% premium over London. The drain didn’t pause for the margin call.
But here’s the thing about $119 oil. It couldn’t stay there.
Not because of supply and demand.
Because the financial system couldn’t survive it.
Oil is the lubricant of everything. Every supply chain, every industrial cost input, every freight contract, every derivative position has oil somewhere in its DNA. $119 oil doesn’t just hurt at the pump - it detonates through inflation calculations, through corporate margins, through the Fed’s already impossible position. A financial system running on the fumes of cheap credit and managed narratives cannot absorb a 70% oil shock in ten days. It would break. Again. Worse than 2022.
So $119 oil had to become something more manageable. And quickly.
Enter the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Washington’s answer to every oil crisis, regardless of whether it applies. The IEA approved a record 400 million barrel release, the largest in history. The US alone is releasing 172 million barrels. Markets calmed a few days. But oil starts to climb again. Of course it did!
This is a flow problem, not a stock problem. Twenty million barrels per day are structurally offline. No strategic reserve on earth is designed to replace that - reserves exist to smooth short-term disruptions, not to substitute for the world’s main shipping artery indefinitely. The Strait of Hormuz was running 138 tankers per day before the war. It’s running 8 now. Eight. The tankers that are moving belong almost exclusively to China. The Strait isn’t closed. It’s licensed. And China has the only valid ticket.
The SPR can’t reopen refineries shuttered around the Gulf. It can’t move tankers sitting full in blocked ports. It doesn’t fix diesel in Europe up 55% in ten days, or fertiliser prices surging 30-35% because a third of global supply transits the same chokepoint. The physical supply is exactly as disrupted as it was before the announcement. The paper price got managed down but is now heading back up.
Iran itself is currently exporting more oil than it did before the war. 2.5 million barrels per day in March, almost exclusively to China, at roughly double the pre-war price. Iran’s economy is strengthening during the war it’s supposedly losing.
If you’ve spent any time watching the silver markets, you’ll recognise this instantaneously. You know exactly what a thumb on the scale feels like. The paper price is managed down. The physical reality goes the other direction. The gap widens quietly while the headline number provides cover.
The difference with oil is scale. Oil suppression has a time limit measured in weeks, not months. You reap what you suppress - and the suppression of $119 oil doesn’t fix the refineries, doesn’t move the tankers, doesn’t reopen the chokepoint. It just delays the repricing and charges compound interest on the deferral. Every week of artificially cheap oil is a week the investment in alternatives doesn’t happen. The eventual correction, when physical reality reasserts itself, will be worse for all the time spent pretending.
Sound familiar? It should!
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...8126422-65f7-4c8a-8808-fea6af9ebbf5_56x54.png
While oil was busy nearly breaking the financial system, and then being managed back from the edge, something quieter was seizing up in private credit. Quieter, but in some ways more structurally dangerous - because an oil crisis has an ending. A liquidity mismatch does not.
Here’s a rough timeline, just since February.
Blue Owl gated its retail private credit fund. BlackRock limited withdrawals from its $26 billion fund after investors wanted 9.3% back - they got 5%, the rest can wait. Same BlackRock that wrote a private credit loan to zero in March, three months after valuing it at 100 cents on the dollar. Second time it’s done that. Blackstone injected $400 million of its own cash to cover record redemption requests on its $82 billion fund. Cliffwater’s $33 billion fund facing 14% redemption requests, paying out only 7%. And Morgan Stanley capped withdrawals on its $7 billion fund this week after investors tried to pull 11%. JPMorgan, same week, started marking down loan portfolios and cutting credit lines to private credit managers.
A fool and his money are soon gated.
The structural flaw was always in plain sight for anyone who wanted to look. These products sold “semi-liquid” access to 5-7 year illiquid loans. Quarterly redemption windows on assets that cannot be sold quarterly. It works fine in a rising market with steady inflows - you pay early redeemers with incoming capital, nobody notices the duration mismatch, everyone collects their fee. The moment net outflows begin, you discover you can’t sell the underlying assets fast enough to meet redemptions. So you gate. And then gating begets more outflows, because nobody wants to be last in line at a bank that’s already limiting withdrawals.
The people locked out of their private credit capital need liquidity from somewhere. Anywhere… NOW!!
They go to whatever markets still have it. Treasuries. Equities. Gold. Silver. Another hand on the sell button, for reasons entirely unconnected to the assets being sold.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...8126422-65f7-4c8a-8808-fea6af9ebbf5_56x54.png
And then there’s AI. Which is private credit’s dirtiest secret.
The entire AI buildout was underwritten on the assumption of either perpetually low rates or revenues materialising faster than costs. Neither happened. But there’s a layer underneath that is worse.
Forty percent of private credit loan books are exposed to software companies running on this hardware. The loans were written against collateral marked at book value. Book value that always was a fiction. When credit tightens and those loans need refinancing or honest marking, you ‘discover’ the collateral backing a hundred-cent loan is worth sixty cents on a generous day. The ‘trillion-dollar oops’ is still unwinding. The house of cards was built on the carpet of cheap credit - and the carpet has been quietly shrinking since rates went up. Pull what remains of it.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...8126422-65f7-4c8a-8808-fea6af9ebbf5_56x54.png
The Fed meets March 18. Their options range from bad to worse.
Cut rates and you signal distress, fan the inflationary oil fire, and try to place $1 trillion in new debt every 100 days into a market that’s already buying its own paper back through Treasury buybacks - the largest in history happened this week - because primary dealers are choking on supply. Rate cuts into stagflation are the monetary equivalent of releasing the SPR: a gesture that manages the headline while solving nothing underneath.
Hold rates and private credit continues seizing, oil-driven inflation compounds, and the war burns through $1 billion a day on top of a $3 trillion annual deficit.
The fourth option - hold, sound dovish, quietly expand the balance sheet through whatever creative facility name that isn’t called QE - is almost certainly what happens. It worked in 2008. It worked in 2019. It worked in 2020. The stealth QE is already running through the buybacks. They just haven’t named it yet. All roads lead to money printing. The variable is only the timeline.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...8126422-65f7-4c8a-8808-fea6af9ebbf5_56x54.png
Now gold. Because gold’s week looked like a failure but wasn’t.
It fell less than silver. It recovered faster. The physical bid never actually went away. To understand why, you have to understand who has been buying gold for years and why a bad week changes nothing for them.
Since 2022 - when the West froze Russia’s dollar reserves and showed every non-aligned government exactly how conditional dollar neutrality was - central banks have been buying gold at a pace not seen in decades. Poland. Czech Republic. China. India. Turkey. Singapore. Gulf states. Not as a portfolio trade. As a policy decision. Gold has no counterparty. It can’t be frozen, sanctioned, or conjured out of thin air. When the margin call hit and traders sold, the sovereigns bought the dip. They bought every dip since 2022. They’ll buy the next one.
This matters because it means gold has a structural floor that silver doesn’t. Not a price level - a constant source of demand that absorbs selling pressure and compresses the downside. It’s why gold at $5,000 isn’t a bubble. It’s a re-rating of gold’s monetary role in a world where it has to carry weight that Treasuries used to carry for countries that no longer fully trust Washington with their savings.
https://no01.substack.com/p/the-bretton-whoops
The petrodollar stress makes this worse for dollars and better for gold. An Iran war that puts Gulf states in the crossfire of a conflict they didn’t choose, closes the strait their oil revenues flow through, and makes them quietly question the value of the security arrangement they’ve been paying for - that’s not a normal geopolitical event. That’s a stress test of the entire architecture. When petrodollar recycling slows, the natural destination for that sovereign wealth isn’t euros or yuan. It’s gold.
Western retail still hasn’t properly arrived at this trade. Global portfolio gold allocations sit around 2%. Historical bull market peaks have seen 8%. The gold rush, as it were, hasn’t even started yet.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...8126422-65f7-4c8a-8808-fea6af9ebbf5_56x54.png
Silver is the acute version. Without the floor.
Until very recently, no central bank was holding silver as a reserve asset. Russia started the trend in ‘24. Saudi Arabia followed in ‘25. India recently started as well. But in the grand scheme of things, this is only a drop. The floor is pure physical demand - industrial, investment, delivery - and it’s being measured now in trading days, not months.
COMEX registered silver has collapsed 59.5% since October 1 - from 193.7 million ounces to 78.3 million. 600~800 thousand ounces per day, leaving, no deposits, no reversal. Run-rate to zero: late July to early September. Shanghai trading at a 12-14% premium above LBMA for weeks, with the arbitrage channel that used to close that gap having stopped functioning around 2023. The SGE briefly pulled silver inventory from its weekly report - then quietly put it back, as if hoping No1 would notice the gap.
And then there’s the supply side, which almost nobody is talking about.
Most silver doesn’t come from silver mines. It comes out as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc refining - operations that depend on hydrometallurgical processes requiring industrial quantities of sulfuric acid. Sulfuric acid is produced as a byproduct of sour crude refining. The same Hormuz closure that’s strangling oil flow is, with a lag of weeks to months, also strangling the chemical inputs that base metal smelters depend on. Refineries shuttered around the Gulf means sulfuric acid production dropping means hydrometallurgical operations halting means silver byproduct output falling.
The crisis that is draining the vaults is simultaneously choking the pipeline that would normally refill them. A vice, closing from both ends.
The COMEX - the same week every major private credit fund was gating - cut silver margin requirements by 22%. Open interest at a 13-year low. They are not suppressing a rally. They are begging for volume. The exchange that set the global silver price for decades is becoming a rounding error.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...8126422-65f7-4c8a-8808-fea6af9ebbf5_56x54.png
Pull back and it’s one story with four acts running simultaneously.
Oil suppressed because $119 would have broken the system - again, but worse. Silver suppressed because honest pricing exposes decades of fractional-reserve paper games. Private credit frozen because honest pricing of those loan books triggers a writedown wave that makes 2008 look like a rehearsal. AI valuations maintained because the alternative is admitting that a trillion-dollar capital cycle was built on credit that no longer exists at the price it was underwritten.
Every suppression buys time. None of them buys a solution. You can’t have your liquidity and eat it too.
On March 18, Powell steps to the podium and tries to convince a room full of people that everything is under control. He’ll probably sound very convincing. He has had practice.
Transitory, they called it last time. Maybe this time they'll find an even better adjective.
All that's left to decide is what they'll call the credit facility. TALF. TARP. SLF. BTFP. Each crisis gets a fresh acronym and the same old printer. I'm hoping for CTRLP.
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
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| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-YR | 4.281 | +0.008 | +0.187 |
| EUR/USD | 1.142 | -0.009 | -0.817 |
| *GOLD | 5,021.3 | -104.5 | -2.04 |
| *OIL | 98.62 | +2.89 | +3.02 |
| NASDAQ | 22,105.359 | -206.62 | -0.93 |
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| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| *NYSE | 22,051.16 | -67.54 | -0.31 |
| UTIL | 1,180.42 | +10.91 | +0.93 |
| *RUSS 2K | 2,480.052 | -8.938 | -0.36 |
| TRAN | 17,731.84 | +20.92 | +0.12 |
| NASD 100 | 24,380.734 | -152.849 | -0.62 |
Commodities
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| *SOYBEAN | 1,223.75 | -3.5 | -0.29 |
| *WHEAT | 613.25 | +14.75 | +2.46 |
| *SILVER | 80.135 | -4.977 | -5.85 |
| *CORN | 467 | +4.5 | +0.97 |
| *NAT GAS | 3.135 | -0.098 | -3.03 |
| *RBOB GAS | 3.054 | +0.089 | +3 |
| *ULSD HO | 4.015 | +0.116 | +2.98 |
| *COPPER | 5.695 | -0.174 | -2.96 |
Treasurys
| SYMBOL | YIELD | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| US 1-MO | 3.701 | +0.016 |
| US 3-MO | 3.692 | -0.001 |
| US 6-MO | 3.666 | -0.004 |
| US 1-YR | 3.642 | -0.019 |
| US 2-YR | 3.727 | -0.035 |
| US 10-YR | 4.281 | +0.008 |
| US 30-YR | 4.909 | +0.024 |
Currencies
Iran Mulls Allowing Tankers Through Strait Of Hormuz If Trade Conducted In Yuan
This should be screaming front page news on every newspaper. It means the destruction of the US financial system.
Iran Mulls Allowing Tankers Through Strait Of Hormuz If Trade Conducted In Yuan<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Iran is considering allowing a "limited number" of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan, CNN has reported.
A senior Iranian official told the US news outlet that Tehran is working on a new plan to manage tanker traffic through the strategic waterway on Iran’s southern coast.
Iran has effectively sealed off the strait, allowing only its own and Chinese ships to pass. Before the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, at least 20 percent of the world’s oil flowed through it.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it will attack vessels linked to “aggressor nations,” such as the Gulf states that allow the US and Israel to use their territory for attacks on the Islamic Republic. The IRGC announced that the world should prepare for oil prices "reaching $200."
For decades, most international oil has been traded in US dollars. The earnings from oil sales by Gulf countries, known as "petrodollars," were mostly reinvested into the US economy through the purchase of sovereign bonds issued by the US Treasury.
Since Washington imposed economic sanctions on Moscow in 2022 following the start of the war in Ukraine, sanctioned Russian oil has increasingly been sold in rubles.
For years, China has used a covert, barter-style financial system to help pay Iran for oil, circumventing US sanctions. The system allows Iran to ship crude oil to China, while Chinese state-owned firms carry out infrastructure projects in Iran as payment.
Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz early Saturday morning and are heading towards India, according to an Indian foreign ministry official speaking with CNN.
Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, told India Today that Iran allowed Indian vessels to travel through the strait, without providing details of how they obtained permission.
India heavily depends on imported LPG and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia. The South Asian nation has experienced shortages of both fuels since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran started two weeks ago.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday, CNN noted. During the conversation, Modi reiterated that the “unhindered transit of goods and energy” remained one of India’s top priorities.
The UN has warned that restrictions on shipping through the strait could have dire effects on the world economy, including on food production.
“When ships stop moving through that Strait, the consequences travel fast,” said Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs
“Food, medicine, fertilizer, and other supplies become harder to move and more expensive to deliver,” he added.
Along with surging oil prices, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused fertilizer costs to rise by up to a third. If the strait remains closed, reduced fertilizer use could lead to lower harvests and potential food shortages worldwide in the coming year.
West
Senior
That's called dirty pool say a fed bankster!Iran Mulls Allowing Tankers Through Strait Of Hormuz If Trade Conducted In Yuan
This should be screaming front page news on every newspaper. It means the destruction of the US financial system.
Iran Mulls Allowing Tankers Through Strait Of Hormuz If Trade Conducted In Yuan<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Iran is considering allowing a "limited number" of oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that the oil cargo is traded in Chinese yuan, CNN has reported.
A senior Iranian official told the US news outlet that Tehran is working on a new plan to manage tanker traffic through the strategic waterway on Iran’s southern coast.
Iran has effectively sealed off the strait, allowing only its own and Chinese ships to pass. Before the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, at least 20 percent of the world’s oil flowed through it.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it will attack vessels linked to “aggressor nations,” such as the Gulf states that allow the US and Israel to use their territory for attacks on the Islamic Republic. The IRGC announced that the world should prepare for oil prices "reaching $200."
For decades, most international oil has been traded in US dollars. The earnings from oil sales by Gulf countries, known as "petrodollars," were mostly reinvested into the US economy through the purchase of sovereign bonds issued by the US Treasury.
Since Washington imposed economic sanctions on Moscow in 2022 following the start of the war in Ukraine, sanctioned Russian oil has increasingly been sold in rubles.
For years, China has used a covert, barter-style financial system to help pay Iran for oil, circumventing US sanctions. The system allows Iran to ship crude oil to China, while Chinese state-owned firms carry out infrastructure projects in Iran as payment.
Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) passed through the Strait of Hormuz early Saturday morning and are heading towards India, according to an Indian foreign ministry official speaking with CNN.
Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, told India Today that Iran allowed Indian vessels to travel through the strait, without providing details of how they obtained permission.
India heavily depends on imported LPG and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from West Asia. The South Asian nation has experienced shortages of both fuels since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran started two weeks ago.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday, CNN noted. During the conversation, Modi reiterated that the “unhindered transit of goods and energy” remained one of India’s top priorities.
The UN has warned that restrictions on shipping through the strait could have dire effects on the world economy, including on food production.
“When ships stop moving through that Strait, the consequences travel fast,” said Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs
“Food, medicine, fertilizer, and other supplies become harder to move and more expensive to deliver,” he added.
Along with surging oil prices, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused fertilizer costs to rise by up to a third. If the strait remains closed, reduced fertilizer use could lead to lower harvests and potential food shortages worldwide in the coming year.
Major UAE Fujairah Port In Flames As Iran Vows Escalation For Kharg Island Attack
Major UAE Fujairah Port In Flames As Iran Vows Escalation For Kharg Island Attack<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Associated Press images meanwhile showed a column of smoke rising over the embassy compound in the Iraqi capital and a fire at the Fujairah port, offering confirmation.
President Trump had said late Friday that the US military "obliterated" targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, home to the primary terminal handling the country's oil exports.
Additionally, an American official said 2,500 additional Marines and an amphibious assault ship are heading to the Middle East - though it remains unclear on if they will actually enter the strait, or what their mission will ultimately be.
️Another video of the damage done to the U.S embassy in Baghdad following a drone strike pic.twitter.com/jxmFK3Ot6j
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 14, 2026
But 'mission creep' is already happening at rapid pace, as the White House refuses to publicize an exit plan or offramp (if there even is one).
(more links over at the original article)
Is Netanyahu Dead?
Netanyahu still hasn’t appeared.
The PMO (Prime Minister's Office of Israel) statement from Thursday - “UNCONFIRMED... efforts underway to establish contact” - stands. Not updated. Not clarified. Not withdrawn.
A Hebrew-language post with over 5 million views stated Friday that he “has left his position permanently”. His son Yair, who posts obsessively - 113,000 tweets, something every single day - has been silent for five days.
An AI-generated video surfaced from official channels showing Netanyahu with six fingers on his right hand.
Six fingers. That’s what we’re working with. Schrödinger’s Prime Minister, now with bonus digits.
David Sacks, White House tech czar, went further than any US official has. If the war continues, he said, Israel could be destroyed.
“Then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon” (3:20).
The Samson Option. On camera. From a White House adviser. That this is being discussed on American television tells you more about where things stand than any CENTCOM briefing ever will.
(Very long daily update at the link)
Netanyahu still hasn’t appeared.
The PMO (Prime Minister's Office of Israel) statement from Thursday - “UNCONFIRMED... efforts underway to establish contact” - stands. Not updated. Not clarified. Not withdrawn.
A Hebrew-language post with over 5 million views stated Friday that he “has left his position permanently”. His son Yair, who posts obsessively - 113,000 tweets, something every single day - has been silent for five days.
An AI-generated video surfaced from official channels showing Netanyahu with six fingers on his right hand.
Six fingers. That’s what we’re working with. Schrödinger’s Prime Minister, now with bonus digits.
David Sacks, White House tech czar, went further than any US official has. If the war continues, he said, Israel could be destroyed.
“Then you have to worry about Israel escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon” (3:20).
The Samson Option. On camera. From a White House adviser. That this is being discussed on American television tells you more about where things stand than any CENTCOM briefing ever will.
(Very long daily update at the link)
This rumor has been gaining traction in some of the alternative sites the last day or two.
I see no external evidence suggesting it is anything other than phog of war. "Yet".
Probably intentionally thrown out by Israel. Jmho
King Samson
I'm Here
Wait a second..... what the hell is going on here???????
Hfcomms
EN66iq
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Grok:Working Group on Financial Markets - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
The Plunge Protection Team (PPT) refers to the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, a real U.S. government body formed after the 1987 Black Monday crash.Origins and PurposeCreated by Executive Order 12631 in March 1988 under President Reagan, the group includes the Treasury Secretary (chair), Fed Chair, SEC Chair, and CFTC Chair. Its official role is to enhance market stability by improving coordination between federal agencies, market participants, and the president during financial crises.Key ActivitiesThe group meets informally during market turmoil to share info and recommend policies, not to directly trade or manipulate prices. Notable instances include a 2018 call by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin amid a Dow drop, followed by a rebound, and advisory roles post-2008 crisis
Note1: the ppt and a very complicated algo prevents huge fluctuations in market activity. For the WIZARD OF OZ...optics is the name of the game.
Note2: I love the feel of yellow metal....in DA morning!
KFhunter
Has No Life - Lives on TB
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Fung Predicts: firewood will increase in price IF Nat Gas.prices increase.
Last edited:
That’s what a lot of those guys selling firewood do. Also those processors need good logs to run efficiently so those semi loads are going to cost more than the old firewood cull log loads.
Glad I am a couple years up on wood right now. Need to get some more on the ground once sugaring season is done.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
Or start a regional war that could morph in the blink of an eye. Funny how those things work.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Domestic air fares are soaring in price due to fuel increases.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Perfect time for China to invade Taiwan.
More fun and games at the LME-What a joke;-)
MAJOR BREAKING: LONDON METALS EXCHANGE HALTS METALS TRADING DUE TO "GLITCH!" The London Metal Exchange just went dark — full trading halt across ALL contracts due to a technical glitch! The 2nd "glitch" the LME has had this year! It kicked off at 9:44 AM EST (2:44 PM London) and lasted about 1 hour, resuming around 10:44 AM EST (3:44 PM London). No metals spared — including precious! This isn't just a glitch; it's a red flag for market fragility amid war/oil madness! Look at the chart, occurs as silver is moving up then tops out... then socking, a dip once the "glitch" is fixed! For gold/silver stackers: Disruptions like this scream systemic stress if not straight up manipulation! Paper markets glitch, but physical metal doesn't! More reason to stack real physical metals outside exchanges! Crustacean Nation: Glitch or sign of bigger cracks? How's this boosting your physical stack? Gold/silver breakout incoming?
MAJOR BREAKING: LONDON METALS EXCHANGE HALTS METALS TRADING DUE TO "GLITCH!" The London Metal Exchange just went dark — full trading halt across ALL contracts due to a technical glitch! The 2nd "glitch" the LME has had this year! It kicked off at 9:44 AM EST (2:44 PM London) and lasted about 1 hour, resuming around 10:44 AM EST (3:44 PM London). No metals spared — including precious! This isn't just a glitch; it's a red flag for market fragility amid war/oil madness! Look at the chart, occurs as silver is moving up then tops out... then socking, a dip once the "glitch" is fixed! For gold/silver stackers: Disruptions like this scream systemic stress if not straight up manipulation! Paper markets glitch, but physical metal doesn't! More reason to stack real physical metals outside exchanges! Crustacean Nation: Glitch or sign of bigger cracks? How's this boosting your physical stack? Gold/silver breakout incoming?
How's this for another laugh;-)
SEC SHOCKER: Quarterly Earnings Reports Could be GONE! The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to scrap the mandatory quarterly reporting requirement! Letting public companies choose semi-annual (twice-a-year) updates instead! This would be one of the biggest disclosure rule changes in decades;-(
SEC SHOCKER: Quarterly Earnings Reports Could be GONE! The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing a proposal to scrap the mandatory quarterly reporting requirement! Letting public companies choose semi-annual (twice-a-year) updates instead! This would be one of the biggest disclosure rule changes in decades;-(
West
Senior
The lies can't be exposed for those that can still do math anyway.
King Samson
I'm Here
The markets closed up.... Brent oil dropped, so we're not at the end of the world, just yet...
Sid Vicious
Veteran Member
^ The US SPR is about to push out 86m barrels tomorrow into the futures markets. My Wild Assed Guess (WAG) is that traders are going to slurp those up at 93$ then turn right around and put them up for true price (UAE Spot) at 150$ and collect a 6 billion risk free profit. Then the markets are going to PANIC.
Around here the people cutting fire wood and selling it are mostly drunks and drug acttics and it's how they make some money after being let go from whatever construction job they had at the end of summer or fall.
These are people doing what they can to keep a junk pickup truck running and buying stolen chainsaw from a pawn shop and stolen log splitter to pull it off. Come spring they sell everything but the truck and start a new construction job.
bought a dbl truckload of logs last may. truck and pup.
I cut/split my share and it was over 20 face cords. pup
truck carrys a bit more.
I expect about 24 face cords from truck.
youtube of some of the work invoved.
my knees held out while I did the cut/split last may.
but after yesterdays brutal snow dump, my knees are toast.
its all I can do to walk to the chickens to do their feed this morning.
altho I got the driveway done yesterday, I still hafta dig out the truck today.
That may not be possible at the moment.
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
I own 15:acres of prime mixed hardwood. My son who had a motorcycle accident( 3 weeks at University of Michigan hospital) lives on my property and maintains it. He was a maintaince man for Worthington Steel. He cuts and sells wood AND also uses the vast amounts of fallen trees to heat the dwelling located on the premises. I have an insulated pole-barn there with another woodburner. My son loves THE SHOP. He can fix anything. How do I know? He's crazy about TOOLS and yes even with the accident he continues to persevere--tearing apart and repairing broken machinery. He fixes them with precision.
Note1: His German sheppard(Ruger) and my sheppard(Klaus) are best buds.
Note2: Lots of folks in my neck of the woods burn wood for heat. My county has very rich and very poor folks. Since the rise of property values, lots of poor folks are priced out of a home. These folks stay invisible...mostly.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
It is being reported that some Asian countries are shutting down an extra day each week due to a lack of fuel to run their factories.
Irish and UK farmers, faced with fertilizer shortages and high prices, are deciding whether to plant. There's been a warning of a shortage of vegetables like peppers grown in heated greenhouses due to heating costs.
The nitrogen fertilizer issue hit Europe right at planting time, and it looks like many farms won't be getting the deliveries they ordered last fall.
There's a lot more going on than just oil prices, especially outside the US.
Irish and UK farmers, faced with fertilizer shortages and high prices, are deciding whether to plant. There's been a warning of a shortage of vegetables like peppers grown in heated greenhouses due to heating costs.
The nitrogen fertilizer issue hit Europe right at planting time, and it looks like many farms won't be getting the deliveries they ordered last fall.
There's a lot more going on than just oil prices, especially outside the US.
emiliozapata
Veteran Member
Let the euros burn
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
DB is a farmer and he said that fertilizer for the US is already in the pipeline or the farmers have it. It's running about 25% higher in cost.
And I've been listening to Stephanie Pomboy on a couple of podcasts in the last few days. While some of the activity we see in the markets may be due to rise in oil and gas there is also stress in the private credit markets with some actually limiting withdrawals. They are quietly selling bonds and metals to raise cash.
A big risk is developing in corporate bonds because 55% of investment grade bonds are only rated BBB. That's a higher percentage than happened in 2008 financial crisis when it was only 35%. The only corporate bonds above BBB are the MAG 7. Even Oracle is rated BBB.
Why is that important? If there is a drain of the system then a lot of those corporate bonds are no longer investment grade. Any mutual fund that is holding them as investment grade will be forced to sell. These are companies like GE, Verizon, AT&T, big names.
So we have parallel events taking place. The problems in private credit predate Trump but as ED Dowd has said, Trump will be blamed.
And I've been listening to Stephanie Pomboy on a couple of podcasts in the last few days. While some of the activity we see in the markets may be due to rise in oil and gas there is also stress in the private credit markets with some actually limiting withdrawals. They are quietly selling bonds and metals to raise cash.
A big risk is developing in corporate bonds because 55% of investment grade bonds are only rated BBB. That's a higher percentage than happened in 2008 financial crisis when it was only 35%. The only corporate bonds above BBB are the MAG 7. Even Oracle is rated BBB.
Why is that important? If there is a drain of the system then a lot of those corporate bonds are no longer investment grade. Any mutual fund that is holding them as investment grade will be forced to sell. These are companies like GE, Verizon, AT&T, big names.
So we have parallel events taking place. The problems in private credit predate Trump but as ED Dowd has said, Trump will be blamed.
Melodi
Disaster Cat
I would rather not, thank you very much. As a member of a prepping board, I continue to look for ways to protect my household and those I care about.
Also, if you think what happens in Europe has no effect on the United States, especially when it comes to a potential resource and food collapse, I'd suggest you think again. Europe may be more of a canary in the coal mine than something to be ignored or even despised.
KFhunter
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Same. I heat with propane and cook with it.
As long as supply is good and prices are low I’m happy, in power outages it doesn’t take much to heat the house, I can run the furnace off a jackery and have, but typically use a small 2000w suitcase genny. Pretty cheap to run.
I have a 1000 gallon tank which I own and take bids to fill once per year and since a relative works for the propane company I get family discount. I average 400 gallons per year. So I’m not eager at these rates to burn firewood.
SouthernBreeze
TB Fanatic
Here, in our area of Mississippi, our firewood costs us $200/cord. We already have around 3 1/2 years worth under roof, and 2 more cords on the way to make up for what we've used this winter. It's cheaper than propane, here. Wood heat is our main source of heat.
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
Market close.
www.cnbc.com
US Markets
Up to date market data and stock market news is available online. View US market headlines and market charts. Get the latest economy news, markets in our Market Overview.
www.cnbc.com
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-YR | 4.197 | -0.023 | -0.545 |
| EUR/USD | 1.154 | +0.003 | +0.296 |
| *GOLD | 5,008.3 | +6.1 | +0.12 |
| *OIL | 96.13 | +2.63 | +2.81 |
| NASDAQ | 22,479.528 | +105.35 | +0.47 |
| S&P 500 | 6,716.09 | +16.71 | +0.25 |
| DJIA | 46,993.26 | +46.85 | +0.1 |
| VIX | 22.37 | -1.14 | -4.85 |
Stock Indexes
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| *NYSE | 22,315.54 | +56.96 | +0.26 |
| UTIL | 1,184.04 | -2.83 | -0.24 |
| *RUSS 2K | 2,519.995 | +16.702 | +0.67 |
| TRAN | 18,051.7 | +198.07 | +1.11 |
| NASD 100 | 24,780.419 | +125.076 | +0.51 |
Commodities
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| *SOYBEAN | 1,156.5 | +1.25 | +0.11 |
| *WHEAT | 590.5 | -6.75 | -1.13 |
| *SILVER | 79.3 | -1.382 | -1.71 |
| *CORN | 454.5 | +0.5 | +0.11 |
| *NAT GAS | 3.036 | +0.013 | +0.43 |
| *RBOB GAS | 3.129 | +0.129 | +4.3 |
| *ULSD HO | 4.029 | +0.191 | +4.99 |
| *COPPER | 5.772 | -0.06 | -1.02 |
Treasurys
| SYMBOL | YIELD | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| US 1-MO | 3.696 | -0.01 |
| US 3-MO | 3.694 | +0.002 |
| US 6-MO | 3.681 | -0.002 |
| US 1-YR | 3.628 | UNCH |
| US 2-YR | 3.671 | -0.009 |
| US 10-YR | 4.197 | -0.023 |
| US 30-YR | 4.841 | -0.017 |
Currencies
Mark D
Now running for Emperor.
Please save the Redheads and Blondes.
von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Jet fuel is going crazy.
Babs
Veteran Member
Guess who's in charge of the SEC now. It's Paul Atkins. He's the same guy who was in charge of the SEC during GFC1. How convenient. Now he's proposing to eliminate Quarterly Earnings Reports. These private credit (compare to sub-prime) bastards are at it again.
Sid Vicious
Veteran Member
Enjoy the last week of normalcy.
Seeing more consensus on the following numbers:
week 6 150$
week 8 180$
Numbers don't really work past week 10 as the world economy has collapsed, but between 200-300$ seem to be the numbers. End of this month 60 million people go into extreme poverty. After three months 10-30 million dead from starvation. Three years later over a billion people die from starvation. Better make sure your preps are in order and get ready to start a victory garden. Luckily those of us in civilized nations will get an extra year of fertilized crops.
Taiwan 7 days of power left (LNG)
Australia 14 days of fuel left (MAD MAX)
South Korea 10 days of oil left
OCEANA critically low
China is starting to use its commercial reserves of 1.4billion and saving the strategic if needed. They closed ALL exports of fertilizer and hydrocarbons i.e. gasoline
Seeing more consensus on the following numbers:
week 6 150$
week 8 180$
Numbers don't really work past week 10 as the world economy has collapsed, but between 200-300$ seem to be the numbers. End of this month 60 million people go into extreme poverty. After three months 10-30 million dead from starvation. Three years later over a billion people die from starvation. Better make sure your preps are in order and get ready to start a victory garden. Luckily those of us in civilized nations will get an extra year of fertilized crops.
Taiwan 7 days of power left (LNG)
Australia 14 days of fuel left (MAD MAX)
South Korea 10 days of oil left
OCEANA critically low
China is starting to use its commercial reserves of 1.4billion and saving the strategic if needed. They closed ALL exports of fertilizer and hydrocarbons i.e. gasoline
Melodi
Disaster Cat
The other development to figure in here is the destruction of the Middle Eastern Oil Refineries, which seems to be spreading. They not only refine the oil but also produce some of the by-products needed by other industries. If this doesn't stop soon, things could get very ugly and become an ongoing crisis even if the fighting stops. Rebuilding requires both investment and time. As Trump found out in Venezuela, many corporations are unwilling to fund rebuilding or repair in an area they are not certain will continue to be peaceful or be able to cover their costs.