ECON FUNG RED *.*Economic Implications Concerning The Closing of the Strait of Hormuz

doctor_fungcool

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Crude Oil WTI Futures

106.76
+15.86(+17.45%)
Analyze chart

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If this sticks, expect selloff( Dow and Nas) tomorrow.
 
von Koehler

von Koehler

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Currently, the Dow Jones futures is down about 810 points.

Update: almost 900 points down.

Maybe a real crash tomorrow morning?

After the Monday close I will attempt to give an updated wave count at my private thread here.
.
Now 1,100 points down.
 
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M

mecoastie

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Tankers sneaking through one or two t a time doesn’t do anything o break the bottleneck. USN doesn’t have the ships to provide escort for all the vessels. I saw a report in another thread that London may start insuring passage again. Then saw that another vessel was struck by a drone boat. So who really knows when it will open.

Does anyone know if any shippers/companies took the US offered insurance?
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Asian Markets:

www.cnbc.com

Japan, South Korea stocks tumble over 6% as oil tops $100 amid broader Asia market rout

Brent futures spiked 16.1% to last trade at $107.61, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose almost 17.7% to $107.02
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Japan, South Korea stocks tumble over 6% as oil tops $100 amid broader Asia market rout​

Published Sun, Mar 8 20267:55 PM EDTUpdated 47 Min Ago
Lim Hui Jie@in/hui-jie-lim-a7371176/
WATCH LIVE
Key Points
  • Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi both dropped more than 6% in early trade.
  • Oil prices breached $100 per barrel as Middle East producers cut output.
  • Brent futures spiked 16.1%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up almost 17.7%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi both plunged over 6% in early trade Monday, leading a broader regional sell-off as oil prices breached $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 tumbled 6.05%, falling below the 53,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 6, while the Topix was down 5.27%.




Softbank Group Corp was among the largest loser on the index, falling nearly 10%, while chip-related stocks such as Advantest and Lasertec was also down over 10% and 9%, respectively.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 6.5%, triggering a temporary trading halt for the Kospi 200 futures. A circuit breaker was activated last week when the benchmark tumbled more than 12% Wednesday to record its worst single-day decline.

Heavyweight Samsung Electronics tumbled 8.4%, while chip counterpart SK Hynix saw a larger loss of 9.2%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 3.68% in early trade.

Brent futures spiked 16.1% to $107.61, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose nearly 17.7% to $107.02.

The surge comes after major Middle Eastern oil producers, including Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, cut oil production following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, posted on Truth Social that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.

“Only fools would think differently!” Trump added.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures were at 25,328, below the index’s last close of 25,757.29.

U.S. stock futures also tumbled on higher oil prices, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down over 800 points or 1.75% lower.

S&P 500 futures were down 1.59%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slid 1.6%.

— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
 
K

ktrapper

Veteran Member
No link, copy and paste from an AI search.


Roughly 9 million barrels of oil per day are off the market due to the Iran war, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. This is caused by direct damage to facilities and producers taking precautionary measures.

Additionally, some reports indicate that 20 million barrels of oil per day are being disrupted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. With tanker traffic halted over safety concerns, major Gulf producers like Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have significantly cut production or declared force majeure.

Iraq’s oil output has fallen by 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, while Kuwait and the UAE have also begun cutting output due to storage constraints and security threats.
 
doctor_fungcool

doctor_fungcool

TB Fanatic
Source AI
Search term was are firewood prices rising?

firewood prices are generally going up due to increased demand and higher production costs for sellers, including fuel, equipment, and labor. In some areas, seasoned hardwood prices range from $250–$400 per cord, with premium or specialty woods costing more, while demand has surged during recent winter storms
 
Starrkopf

Starrkopf

Veteran Member
I think the plunge protection team is doing what it can to suppress the price surge in the short term but I still don't buy that we're out of the woods by a long shot, those ripple effects from the oil shock around the world are going to still hit us no matter what the numbers look like by close today.

I got stocked up on rice and beans and other long term dry goods, etc today and other items I like that I figure are going to skyrocket in price and I would suggest you top off on those kinds of things yourself. I expect food to get a whole lot more expensive very soon.
 
C

Cedar Lake

Connecticut Yankee
ktrapper said:
No link, copy and paste from an AI search.


Roughly 9 million barrels of oil per day are off the market due to the Iran war, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. This is caused by direct damage to facilities and producers taking precautionary measures.

Additionally, some reports indicate that 20 million barrels of oil per day are being disrupted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. With tanker traffic halted over safety concerns, major Gulf producers like Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have significantly cut production or declared force majeure.

Iraq’s oil output has fallen by 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, while Kuwait and the UAE have also begun cutting output due to storage constraints and security threats.
Click to expand...
Is a 20 million barrel/day deficit nearly impossible to compensate for?
Can the 20 million barrel/day deficit be sourced elsewhere.
 
King Samson

King Samson

I'm Here
bracketquant said:
Squirrels. It's always squirrels, even when it's not squirrels.
Click to expand...
Shhhh.. don't say squirrels.... my new pup is going crazy every time he see one.

Starrkopf said:
I think the plunge protection team is doing what it can to suppress the price surge in the short term but I still don't buy that we're out of the woods by a long shot, those ripple effects from the oil shock around the world are going to still hit us no matter what the numbers look like by close today.
Click to expand...
I think this stands a chance to be just a short blip, and will calm down after a week or so, when the Algos figure out, the sky isn't falling. Kinda the same way the market took a big dump last April, because of the fears of tariffs, only to rebound in a few months to new highs.

Oh, and oil down to 94 and the DOW down -340, right now.
 
wait-n-see

wait-n-see

Veteran Member
I'm sure this would not have any reflection of the price going down, eh? ;)

What will happen when there are no more reserves to throw in the mix? :hmm:

@@@

G7 finance ministers to discuss emergency oil reserve release amid price surge: report

By Ashley Carnahan FOXBusiness
Oil Published March 9, 2026 8:42am EDT

Trump calls increases 'very small price' to pay for 'safety and peace' as crude jumps

G7 finance ministers are reportedly set to discuss a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves on Monday, as governments scramble to contain a sharp surge in crude prices triggered by the war in Iran.

Ministers will hold a call with International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol to assess the impact of the conflict and consider a joint release of petroleum from strategic reserves, according to the Financial Times.

The outlet reported that three G7 countries, including the United States, have expressed support for tapping stockpiles, with some U.S. officials viewing a potential release of 300 million to 400 million barrels, roughly a quarter to a third of the IEA system’s public reserves, as appropriate.

The White House did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

TRUMP IS REALIGNING WORLD ENERGY MARKETS AND THE IRAN STRIKES ARE ACTUALLY HELPING

President Donald Trump on Sunday said rising oil prices are a "very small price" for the United States and the world to pay for "safety and peace."

"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Oil prices on Monday morning were sharply higher in early trading, with benchmark crude posting double-digit percentage gains.

GOP SENATORS SAYS TRUMP'S STRIKES 'SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED' IRAN BUT EMPHASIZE ATTACKS NOT 'FOREVER WARS'

West Texas Intermediate, the key U.S. oil benchmark, was trading at $103.80, up more than 14%, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, stood at $105.88, also up roughly 14%, according to OilPrice.com data.

Other key grades, including Murban and WTI Midland, were also solidly higher, and U.S. Mars crude showed an even steeper jump of nearly 24%.

The IEA says it was founded in 1974 in response to the 1973–1974 oil crisis, with a mandate to help countries coordinate a collective response to major disruptions in oil supply.

Since then, it has maintained a joint emergency response mechanism designed to stabilize global energy markets and protect the broader economy during periods of severe price volatility.

The agency has activated that system on five occasions, including during the First Gulf War in 1991, after hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, during the 2011 Libyan crisis, and twice following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Market Close 4:08 Eastern

www.cnbc.com

US Markets

Up to date market data and stock market news is available online. View US market headlines and market charts. Get the latest economy news, markets in our Market Overview.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
US 10-YR4.103-0.029-0.702
EUR/USD1.161-0.001-0.052
*GOLD5,151.7-7-0.14
*OIL86.43-4.47-4.92
NASDAQ22,695.946+308.267+1.38
S&P 5006,795.99+55.97+0.83
DJIA47,740.8+239.25+0.5
VIX25.59-3.9-13.22

Stock Indexes​

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
*NYSE22,586.95+68.88+0.31
UTIL1,171.06+3+0.26
*RUSS 2K2,550.885+25.583+1.01
TRAN18,549.53+88.21+0.48
NASD 10024,967.248+324.233+1.32

Commodities​

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
*SOYBEAN1,196.25-4.5-0.37
*WHEAT602.5-14.25-2.31
*SILVER86.73+2.419+2.87
*CORN453.25-7.25-1.57
*NAT GAS3.058-0.128-4.02
*RBOB GAS2.663-0.084-3.05
*ULSD HO3.338-0.285-7.86
*COPPER5.891+0.084+1.44

Treasurys​

SYMBOLYIELDCHANGE
US 1-MO3.701UNCH
US 3-MO3.679+0.018
US 6-MO3.637+0.008
US 1-YR3.558+0.013
US 2-YR3.552-0.004
US 10-YR4.103-0.029
US 30-YR4.718-0.038

Currencies​

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
USD/CHF0.778+0.002+0.284
AUD/USD0.707+0.004+0.53
USD/CAD1.358+0.002+0.12
USD/SEK9.166+0.012+0.13
USD/JPY157.84+0.05+0.03
EUR/USD1.161-0.001-0.052
GBP/USD1.343+0.001+0.1
ICE US Dollar Index98.882-0.104-0.11
 
K

ktrapper

Veteran Member
Cedar Lake said:
Is a 20 million barrel/day deficit nearly impossible to compensate for?
Can the 20 million barrel/day deficit be sourced elsewhere.
Click to expand...
Another AI search to answer that question.
My thoughts would also to be lift any sanctions on Russian oil delivery. Brazil is a another pretty big producer. While the AI answer is 6 months from drilling to production it does not take into consideration the time before the drilling which could be another 6 months depending on business models and corporate funding. Time from drilling in a new field without pipeline infrastructure lengthens the time from drill to getting the oil to the refinery.
On the North Slope where I work, oil only flows out through pipe lines. Every new well has to be tied into existing pipelines before the well is brought online to produce. This takes more than 6 months.

Here is AI’s answer:
The 20 million barrel per day oil deficit caused by the Iran war stems from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of global oil supply is stranded due to conflict-related disruptions, attacks on infrastructure, and shipping halts.

U.S. shale production is a potential source to help offset the shortfall, as U.S. liquids output grew to represent about 70% of global supply expansionfrom 2008 to 2025. However, there is a six-month lag between drilling new wells and seeing production increases, limiting immediate impact.

Strategic reserves could provide short-term relief. The International Energy Agency (IEA) holds over 1.2 billion barrels in public emergency stocks, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve may be tapped. G7 nations are discussing coordinated releases.

Alternative export routes exist but have limited capacity:

  • Saudi Arabia’s Petroline pipeline to the Red Sea can bypass Hormuz but carries only about 5 million barrels per day at peak.
  • The UAE uses the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman, but it has been disrupted by fighting.
Even with these measures, analysts stress that no current infrastructure or reserve can fully replace 20 million barrels per day, making this the largest oil supply shock in history. The deficit is expected to persist unless security in the Strait of Hormuz is restored.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
How are we going to have a proper doomaggedon event when oil keeps dropping?
-been too long since those black swans showed up at the party, but maybe if we could rassle a few of those up, we could still make doomsday before spring planting? :: shrug ::
Gunther Eagleman™
@GuntherEagleman
1h

BREAKING: OIL PRICES FALL BELOW $100 AFTER TRUMP TELLS CBS THE WAR IS "PRETTY MUCH COMPLETE"

CNN was just FORCED to admit oil PLUNGED overnight. The markets cheered Trump's comments, with the Dow surging 239 points to close GREEN after a red day, Nasdaq and S&P also up.

Investors see a MEASURED path forward amid Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz bottlenecks.
rt 2m33s

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