ECON FUNG RED *.*Economic Implications Concerning The Closing of the Strait of Hormuz
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von Koehler
Has No Life - Lives on TB
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https://tradersunion.com/news/business-wealth/show/2899924-us-diesel-prices-biden-trump/
Rising diesel costs are becoming a broader inflation risk for the U.S. economy as supply disruptions from the Iran war keep industrial fuel prices elevated. Since Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, average diesel prices have reached $4.09 a gallon, slightly above the $4.08 average recorded during Joe Biden’s presidency.
AAA data show diesel has risen 43 per cent to $5.37 a gallon since the U.S. and Israel began their bombing campaign of Iran on February 28, while petrol is up 37 per cent to $4.09. Crude, which climbed above $120 a barrel at the peak of the conflict, drops below $80 on Tuesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signals that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near.
Analysts say diesel is likely to fall more slowly than petrol because inventories are low, refining capacity is limited and Russia’s export ban through 2027 removes significant volumes from the market. U.S. refineries are operating at or near full capacity as energy groups seek to capture strong margins from producing fuels such as petrol and diesel.
Marathon Petroleum reports on Tuesday that its second-quarter profit more than triples from a year earlier, helped by much higher earnings per barrel processed. Analysts also warn that diesel demand is set to rise as the summer driving season ends and heating use increases, leaving coastal markets in the U.S., Europe and Asia exposed to further supply disruptions, including hurricanes.
Jeff Colgan, a political science professor at Brown University, says voters typically blame incumbents when energy prices rise, even when diesel is less visible than petrol to consumers. The pressure is widening beyond fuel, with 30-year mortgage rates rising to 6.66 per cent last week, the highest level in a year, as investors worry the Federal Reserve may struggle to contain a renewed burst of inflation.
The average petrol price during Trump’s second term stands at $3.34 a gallon, compared with $3.46 during Biden’s presidency, but the sharper rise in diesel is proving more economically sensitive. An AP-NORC poll last week puts Trump’s approval rating at 33 per cent, while four in 10 voters say fuel costs for their car are a major source of stress, up from three in 10 in February.
Trump criticizes oil majors over windfall earnings after ExxonMobil and Chevron report quarterly profits of $14.5 billion and $12.1 billion respectively last week. Analysts say his frustration with persistently high pump prices could lead to stronger intervention in oil and fuel markets, including possible export limi
U.S. diesel prices top Biden-era average, adding pressure on Trump
Rising diesel costs are becoming a broader inflation risk for the U.S. economy as supply disruptions from the Iran war keep industrial fuel prices elevated. Since Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, average diesel prices have reached $4.09 a gallon, slightly above the $4.08 average recorded during Joe Biden’s presidency.
Highlights
- Diesel prices in the U.S. have risen 43 per cent to $5.37 a gallon since February 28, outpacing petrol and remaining high despite crude falling below $80 a barrel.
- Marathon Petroleum's second-quarter profit more than tripled year-over-year due to high refining margins, while U.S. refineries operate near full capacity amid persistent low inventories and Russian export bans.
- U.S. households have spent over $600 extra on petrol and diesel since the Iran conflict began, intensifying inflation concerns before November elections and driving discussion of market interventions as energy majors report record profits.
Diesel surge outpaces crude retreat
As reported by Financial Times, diesel prices remain under pressure even as global crude oil prices fall back from conflict-driven highs, creating a tougher inflation problem for the White House than headline oil moves alone suggest.AAA data show diesel has risen 43 per cent to $5.37 a gallon since the U.S. and Israel began their bombing campaign of Iran on February 28, while petrol is up 37 per cent to $4.09. Crude, which climbed above $120 a barrel at the peak of the conflict, drops below $80 on Tuesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signals that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near.
Analysts say diesel is likely to fall more slowly than petrol because inventories are low, refining capacity is limited and Russia’s export ban through 2027 removes significant volumes from the market. U.S. refineries are operating at or near full capacity as energy groups seek to capture strong margins from producing fuels such as petrol and diesel.
Marathon Petroleum reports on Tuesday that its second-quarter profit more than triples from a year earlier, helped by much higher earnings per barrel processed. Analysts also warn that diesel demand is set to rise as the summer driving season ends and heating use increases, leaving coastal markets in the U.S., Europe and Asia exposed to further supply disruptions, including hurricanes.
Political and household strain builds
Higher diesel prices are adding to voter frustration before November’s midterm elections, especially because the fuel is central to agriculture, freight and manufacturing supply chains. Brown University estimates U.S. households have each spent more than $600 extra on petrol and diesel since the Iran war began.Jeff Colgan, a political science professor at Brown University, says voters typically blame incumbents when energy prices rise, even when diesel is less visible than petrol to consumers. The pressure is widening beyond fuel, with 30-year mortgage rates rising to 6.66 per cent last week, the highest level in a year, as investors worry the Federal Reserve may struggle to contain a renewed burst of inflation.
The average petrol price during Trump’s second term stands at $3.34 a gallon, compared with $3.46 during Biden’s presidency, but the sharper rise in diesel is proving more economically sensitive. An AP-NORC poll last week puts Trump’s approval rating at 33 per cent, while four in 10 voters say fuel costs for their car are a major source of stress, up from three in 10 in February.
Trump criticizes oil majors over windfall earnings after ExxonMobil and Chevron report quarterly profits of $14.5 billion and $12.1 billion respectively last week. Analysts say his frustration with persistently high pump prices could lead to stronger intervention in oil and fuel markets, including possible export limi
King Samson
I'm Here
Yes LOL……
“Since Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, average diesel prices have reached $4.09 a gallon, slightly above the $4.08 average recorded during Joe Biden’s presidency.”
King Samson
I'm Here
OMG... A whole penny.... here comes the Depression.... Run!!!!
Why weren't you complaining back in 2022, when it was this high?
King Samson
I'm Here
EIA: Crude Inventories Rise as Refinery Runs Ease, Imports Climb
U.S. crude stocks rose as refineries eased processing slightly and imports edged higher, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.Crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels to 407 million barrels in the week ended July 31, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.5 million-barrel draw.
Total crude stocks, including commercial and barrels held in the U.S. government's Strategic Petroleum Reserves, eased to 711.8 million barrels, the lowest since March 1984.
Oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 2.4 million barrels to 20.96 million barrels in the week, the EIA said, back above the minimum operational requirement of about 20 million barrels.
Refinery crude runs fell by 183,000 barrels per day, the EIA said, while refinery utilization rates fell by 0.7 percentage points in the week to 96.5%. Meanwhile, imports climbed by about 515,000 barrels to 6.2 million bpd. Net U.S. crude imports rose last week by 297,000 barrels per day, the EIA said.
"Strong imports combined with an ongoing slower pace of exports to yield a modest build to crude inventories, also aided by a tick lower in refining activity," said Matt Smith, an analyst with ship tracking firm Kpler.
This is just part of the 5D chess Trump is playing, and/or possibly fake news. Probably both (I know that probably makes no sense - just trust the plan).
In case you missed it, Trump stated yesterday “the country is doing better than it has ever done” and “this is the golden age of America”
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Zagdid
Veteran Member
View: https://twitter.com/i/status/2086106203415806086
BREAKING: US Senate passes bill allowing 100% tariffs on India
BREAKING: US Senate passes bill allowing 100% tariffs on India
Dobbin
Faithful Steed
"Analysts also warn that diesel demand is set to rise as the winter heating season ends and summer driving increases leaving coastal markets in the US, Europe and Asia exposed to further supply disruptions, including heat related power demand."
The summary is seasonally adjusted as required.
Dobbin
Har har! You are so stooopid, you probably caught dimensha from your boyfriend biden. You hate this country and probably only watch MSNBC and wish you could have dinner with Joy Reed. I bet you cry every time trump lifts a crane off of a bus full of kids. Har Har!
Everyone with a brain knows its 6D chess commie!
Hfcomms
EN66iq
What percentage of our medications do we (are forced to) import from India? Do we never learn? I’m sure the Indians are going to sit back and absorb our tariffs and not retaliate in kind.
King Samson
I'm Here
Remember kids, there's Fiction and Fantasy, and there's facts an reality on the ground. Don't get sucked into the Fantasy, posted by the anti-American crew here:
Oil at the level of just about where it was when the Iran party started, around March 1:
Then, there is gas prices. If you listen/read what the Panicans post, you'd think gas was $12 a gallon... but it's not.
In fact, it's come back down the past week:
The more you know....
Oil at the level of just about where it was when the Iran party started, around March 1:
Then, there is gas prices. If you listen/read what the Panicans post, you'd think gas was $12 a gallon... but it's not.
In fact, it's come back down the past week:
The more you know....
I am sure the Trump administration talking points being parroted here (“the economy is great” and “oil prices are actually low”) are going to really popular with voters in November.
Thank goodness, I have been noticing things when I order barrels of crude oil.
What a joke.
The per barrel price for diesel and gasoline is around 1/2 of the overall price attributable to gas/diesel at the pump. Transport, refining, etc make up the rest. THOSE are the components directly effected by the war.
Its kind of like saying that flour hasn't gone up since seed prices aren't much higher than they were X years ago. Its the other inputs, just as it is with oil.
King Samson
I'm Here
Thanks for making my point for me. Speaking of Fantasy "talking points", here's what your side spews:
Experts warn oil could climb to $150 within weeks as Hormuz disruption drags on
(From April) Dubai: Oil could move toward $150 within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted and US-Iran tensions deepen, with some analysts warning that a prolonged supply shock may even bring the $200 level into view.And this:
Dallas oil CEO says gas prices could hit ‘$5 or $6’ per gallon due to US, Israeli war with Iran
(From March 6th.... LOL)
King Samson
I'm Here
Really?
The cost per barrel of WTI (you know, from Texas), which is refined in the USA, and used in the USA, is affected by the war in the Middle East??
Really?
That is not even taking into consideration the massive disconnect between the futures price of oil vs the price of physical oil.
In what way does your question have any relevance to the price increases being due to refining, transport and other cost inputs per barrel?
Surely you realize that WTI is not oil produced in Texas, but instead is a grade of light/sweet crude that can be produced anywhere?
You also surely know that WTI is not restricted to domestic use and is frequently arbitraged when global crude prices are higher thereby reducing the stocks of domestically produced oil resulting in higher prices here as well?
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Russian crude price increases have given them the edge in weapons production AND weapons sales. Big oil is making money hand over fist. Unfortunately the lowly American pays through the nose for gasoline laced with ethenol here in CONUS. There's no defending this lack of foresight by TPTB.
King Samson
I'm Here
Are you having a difficult time reading the Gas Buddy chart, I posted, showing current RETAIL gas prices?
How about home heating oil? Currently at $3.90 a gallon.
Here's a hint, you and your buddies here, can bloviate all you want. The only thing that matters to the public is the ACTUAL prices they are paying.... which are NO WHERE close to the armageddon, you're spewing...
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Umm, would it help if I did a screen shot of my gas log book of truck refills?
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Bloviate??? OMG.
I agree with you...the only thing that matters to the public IS the prices. Prices of food, rent, medication and healthcare, automotives, debt, utilities. Many/most of which are directly effected throughout the supply chain by higher gas and diesel prices. Oh, I wonder why heating oil price is lower in the middle of AUGUST and priced in WHOLESALE terms? Retail delivery prices are $4.20 to $5.55 per gallon. You can post every chart you can find that disingenuously tries to convince people that they should believe you, not their lyin' eyes.
Trump promised no new wars, tax cuts, addressing the wasteful spending of the government, etc etc. Meanwhile, the national debt has increased from 36.2 Trillion when he took office in Jan 2025 up to just over 40 trillion today, and an additional trillion or so to be added by year end. I know, "instant society" and all of that tripe will follow, but when you are looking at both terms for trump he is responsible for almost 11 trillion in that spending. Iran still has enriched uranium and centrifuges. Still has severely limited transport thru the strait of hormuz. You feel good because he tells you what you want to hear but does whatever is in his own best interest. You are entitled to self deception if you like, but fewer and fewer people are buying it.
King Samson
I'm Here
LOL... Trump has done all of that. First, the Iran situation is a "Military Operation", NOT a war... Unless you want to post the Declaration from Congress, that it is. Second, tax cuts... Did you miss the BBB while you were sleeping? Third, addressing wasteful spending, ever hear of DOGE, and see all the people being arrested for fraud?
Of course you haven't.
Do you have a problem with math? 40 - 36 isn't 11. Must be that Liberal math again.
Oh, and more fun facts, how much of that additional spending came from Biden's last year, and the budget Trump inherited. Bonus question, when did Trump's first budget start?
Triple bonus question, who was responsible for the first $36 trillion?
So tell me, what aren't you able to purchase in the stores now, because of that limited transit, that you were able to purchase back in February?
He doesn't "tell" me anything. I live in the real world, not the world CNN and MSDNC preaches to you daily. Projection doesn't look good on you.
Were you bitchin and complaining about that, when your boy, Biden spiked inflation up to 9%, and gas prices over $5 and oil over $130, for an EXTENDED time period?? Or, do you only complain when Trump is in office, and gas is in the low $4 range, for a short period of time?
Oil in my area, retail delivery, is $4.10. You wanna split hairs over a few cents? My chart above had it at $3.90. Does that break your budget?
Well, there it is. Finally!!
Oh, you are back to the "war" discussion? Har HarLOL... Trump has done all of that. First, the Iran situation is a "Military Operation", NOT a war... Unless you want to post the Declaration from Congress, that it is. Second, tax cuts... Did you miss the BBB while you were sleeping? Third, addressing wasteful spending, ever hear of DOGE, and see all the people being arrested for fraud?
Of course you haven't.
He is cutting back wasteful spending by increasing the national debt by 4 trillion this term? No wonder you post what you do--too much cheeto dust in your eye.
Maybe thats the issue. You see, his first term saw the debt go from 19.95 trillion up to 27.75 trillion. Thats 7.8 trillion.
shockingly he got a second crack and has thus far ran up another 3.1 Trillion. You see, you have been so obsessed with using Biden to excuse Trumps failure that you forgot that he actually won again and is given a repeat of his prior profligate spending.
You seem to have difficulty realizing that the problem isn't that there are things that are unavailable, only things that now are significantly more expensive and unaffordable to obtain. That is the problem with one sided absolutism--you only think in binary terms--evidenced by your need to classify things into cheeto positive versus cheeto negative. Sad, but it is interesting in some ways.
Its cute that you don't think you don't bark to the whistle. Again, sad but interesting.
why did you post an incorrect figure if you had real world data--because it wasn't as favorable? Typical. I really don't care about heating oil personally. Don't use it and never have.
Its always been there. You just see things from your perspective and everything else is har-har.
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LightEcho
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Market prices are very temporary and represent the wholesale contracts in the commodities exchange. While the prices are interesting and good to watch as a benchmark, you have to realize that market manipulation happens regularly. To keep the oil prices down, they use the same tricks as they did for silver and gold for 20 years. I recall watching the stock markets in 2008 & 2009. The Obama team arranged market manipulations using leveraged contracts and high speed trading. Computers churned the markets back up as the fed soaked up debt- dispersing "liquidity".
The Trump team has been using these tactics illegally and regularly too. Excessive oil short-selling drives the prices down. These aren't just speculators, these are whales like Black Rock. If you are basing your argument on commodity exchange prices, then you might consider what the hard boundaries are that eventually must be reckoned with. Fantasy paper versus hard commodity- eventually the physical asset wins.