King Samson
I'm Here
Hey..... Don't bring me into it.... LOL..
Oh, and the DOW only down -96 right now, will probably be Green by lunchtime.
ECON FUNG RED *.*Economic Implications Concerning The Closing of the Strait of Hormuz (March 2026)
- Thread starter doctor_fungcool
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Oh, and the DOW only down -96 right now, will probably be Green by lunchtime.
John Green
Veteran Member
Just a reminder, the stock market dropped about 3% when JFK was shot and then recovered quickly.
bracketquant
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Heating oil prices, here, up another .20/gallon, this morning.
Blacknarwhal
Three-Time Trump Voter
And of course, let's not forget that "summer blend" is just weeks away.
subnet
Boot
Gotta love the commies and their bs regulations
Zagdid
Veteran Member
Just got 100gal. @ $3.89/ Thinking that the money is better in the tank than in the bank.
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
Iran War - Day 3 - Today's Middle East International
| OPEC Members (Daily Pricing) | Last | Change | % Change | Last Updated | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arab Light | 75.24 | +4.60 | +6.51% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Kuwait Export Blend | 68.70 | +0.22 | +0.32% | (4 Days Delay) |
| International Prices | Last | Change | % Change | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | |||||
| Cossack | 78.15 | +6.81 | +9.55% | (10 Hours Delay) |
|
| NWS Con | 76.10 | +6.81 | +9.83% | (10 Hours Delay) |
|
| Ichthys Con | 80.70 | +6.81 | +9.22% | (10 Hours Delay) |
| Angola | |||||
| Cabinda | 77.30 | +6.81 | +9.66% | (10 Hours Delay) |
| Nemba | 75.55 | +6.81 | +9.91% | (10 Hours Delay) |
| Dalia | 74.90 | +6.81 | +10.00% | (10 Hours Delay) |
| Nigeria | |||||
| Brass River | 78.50 | +6.81 | +9.50% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Qua Iboe | 78.40 | +6.81 | +9.51% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| UAE | |||||
| Das | 80.57 | +9.91 | +14.03% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Umm Lulu | 81.07 | +9.91 | +13.93% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Upper Zakum | 76.59 | +5.62 | +7.92% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Qatar | |||||
| Qatar Land - Qatar | 80.32 | +9.91 | +14.08% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Al Shaheen - Qatar | 76.60 | +5.62 | +7.92% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| D.F.Condensate | 75.47 | +4.63 | +6.54% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| L.S.Condensate | 75.17 | +4.63 | +6.56% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Iraq | |||||
| Basrah Heavy | 71.72 | +4.25 | +6.30% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Basrah Medium | 73.67 | +4.25 | +6.12% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Saudi Arabia | |||||
| Arab Extra Light | 76.24 | +4.60 | +6.42% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
| Arab Heavy | 72.64 | +4.60 | +6.76% | (10 Hours Delay) | |
King Samson
I'm Here
I am as prepared as I can be. I also have skin in the game with a son in law in Airborne. I am also a military brat and have likely been in prep mode well before many of you have because of that and my cultural background and socioeconomic origins in my youth. Preparedness is a lifestyle, not a hobby. It is a state of being.
The reality is that it is time for people to stop being armchair quarterbacks and desk jockeys behind their computer screens relying on AI and clickbait on the interwebz to wind them up just so they can feel something or exercise their adrenaline or look more informed than the next person.
When the UAE closed their entire processing due to actual damage by a terrorist attack, it was barely a blip of a two-week window. Those who panic'd looked absolutely foolish for screaming that the sky was falling. Those who had built in cushion to absorb a hit succeeded and continued on to the next hysteria generated by other people.
People need to stop being hypocrites. They either have faith and trust in their plans and/or a Higher Power ... or they don't. There is no in between. And if a person doesn't, then the issue is internal and cannot be blamed on external circumstances.
Yes. Unfortunately too many people have become addicted to that "waiting around". People should be actively taking control of their present and future as much as they've been given the free will to do. Not sitting around waiting for other people to decide their fate for them.
King Samson
I'm Here
Darn... Missed my prediction by like 15 minutes. Every market in the Green at 12:15 PM EST
Hfcomms
EN66iq
There are some things you might have a measure of influence on and a whole lot of things that you have no influence on like the ongoing activities in the middle east. More productive to spend more time on the former without being ignorant or blindsided on the latter by ignoring it.
doctor_fungcool
** In Timeout **
In other words WE must get off our collective ARSES, fess up, and be ready.
Scene2(creds)
As DocFung slowly rises from his massage chair...straighting up...and then snapping a
perfect salute...eyes tearing up as he thinks about his church in New Caledonia (WW2)
My father loved the service. He enlisted in his 40's(second time).. and was honorably discharged as a MAJOR Oh by the way, he enlisted at 18 in the army during ww1.. Trained at College Station Texas as a radio man . My father was born in 1895....had me late bin.life.
.
European Gas Prices Soar 50% After Qatar Shuts World's Largest LNG Export Plant
European Gas Prices Soar 50% After Qatar Shuts World's Largest LNG Export Plant<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Well, for once Goldman's commodity research desk was spot on... and very quickly at that, because just one day later, TTF shot up as much as 50%, sparking chaos across Europe's energy markets in a deja vu moment of the start of the Ukraine war 4 years ago. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded 46% higher at €46.77 a megawatt-hour by 2:31 p.m. in Amsterdam. That’s the highest level since February 2025.
Qatar’s Defense Ministry said said earlier that two drones launched from Iran had struck facilities in the country, although there were no casualties.
The catalyst behind today's sharp move is not the full closure of Hormuz, which Iran still claims is passable despite occasional ships in its vicinity randomly catching fire, but because early on Monday, Qatar Energy shut down liquefied natural gas production at the world’s largest export facility after it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack.
QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan plant covers about a fifth of global LNG supply and the unprecedented halt now threatens energy security worldwide.
In kneejerk response, European benchmark gas futures jumped the most since the energy crisis in 2022, while tankers had already largely stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global fuel shipments. Needless to say, one direct hit on an LNG ship and the fireworks would be historic.
“The threat to security of supply is here and now,” said Simone Tagliapietra, an analyst at Bruegel. “The extent of it will depend on the duration of the shutdown, but we are now into a new scenario.”
The good news, if only for the US, is that as Goldman notes, there is "limited upside risk to US natural gas prices."
Bloomberg notes that while Asian countries buy most of the LNG shipped from the Middle East, a disruption will increase competition for alternative supplies pushing up prices worldwide, including in Europe.
European gas prices are also rallying as storage inventories are unusually low, and the region needs to import large volumes of LNG this summer to refill them ahead of next winter. While the intraday surge is the biggest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago, benchmark prices are only at a one-year high because regional supplies haven’t been directly disrupted and traders are still assessing how long the conflict will last.
As we discussed yesterday, the key question for traders is how long the disruption will last: the longer, the higher prices will rise. Even if the US boosts LNG production, it’s unlikely to be enough to offset supply from Qatar in the near-term. QatarEnergy is scheduled to start its Golden Pass expansion project in the US in the coming weeks but the facility won’t be at full capacity until next year.
Gas trade disruptions in the Middle East could also eventually raise spot LNG demand from Turkey, according to BloombergNEF, as it imports pipeline fuel from Iran.
Late on Sunday, Trump said the bombing campaign against Iran could last for weeks; The conflict continues to deepen, with blasts heard across Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as states intercepted Iranian missiles launched in response to US-Israeli strikes.
King Samson
I'm Here
Only The 38th Largest Oil Spike Since 1990
Today's oil surge - which is fading fast - is not that big in the grand scheme of geopolitical conflicts...Today’s CoTD from DB's Jim Reid shows the daily price of oil back to 1990. When he published the report, oil (+8.4%) was tracking to be the 38th biggest daily gain over this 36-year period. The graph annotates the clusters where we have seen larger moves.
So even though it’s a big move, to get into the top 20, 10 and 5 it would need to be up +9.6%, +13.6% and +13.9% respectively.
There were huge moves around the GFC and Covid-19 turmoil, whilst the Gulf War in 1990-91 also saw several double-digit gains.
Incidentally, since Jim published his chart of the day, oil has sold off more, and at last check it was up just 5.7% on the day, erasing its kneejerk spike by more than half.
Only The 38th Largest Oil Spike Since 1990<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
King Samson
I'm Here
Top Energy Analyst Says Iran's Navy Too Weak To Completely Choke Hormuz
"The Revolutionary Guard navy is a minor force compared with what the American navy, the British, and the French can bring in."FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told Bloomberg TV on Monday morning that any attempt by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to choke off the critical Strait of Hormuz using warships, drones, and missiles would likely be short-lived, as the regime's naval capability is too weak to sustain a blockade against U.S., British, and French naval forces.
"It's just a fear factor," Fesharaki said earlier on Bloomberg TV, following his prediction one week earlier on Bloomberg TV: "I don't think the U.S. has a choice but to go to war. It is very hard for me to see a scenario in which they would simply avoid this, turn the ships around, and go home." Fesharaki has tracked the market for decades.
Fesharaki said this morning, "The Revolutionary Guard navy is a minor force compared with what the American navy, the British, and the French can bring in."
Fesharaki's comments about the duration of the war mirrored President Trump's remarks to The Daily Mail on Sunday, in which he said Operation Epic Fury would last about four weeks. He also described the IRGC as a "paper tiger."
On Sunday, Trump announced that nine Iranian naval ships had been sunk in the operation.
Top Energy Analyst Says Iran's Navy Too Weak To Completely Choke Hormuz<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
The fact that you are using AI to write your stuff lately is showing.
Drama llamas aside, we all should be doing what it takes to serve as leaders in our community.
King Samson
I'm Here
Steve Eisman says investors should ignore U.S.-Iran war, will be long-term ‘positive’
Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame said investors should ignore the U.S.-Iran war as it could be a long-term positive for markets.In fact, when the investor was asked Monday by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” whether he would change anything because of the conflict, he responded with, “Not a single trade.”
“I think long term, this is very, very positive,” Eisman said. “People react because of what’s happening, oil prices are obviously up. But if it goes well, two months from now, prices will be back to where they were.”
The stock market was in turmoil Monday after the U.S. in a joint attack with Israel struck Iran over the weekend and killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an assault that triggered retaliatory attacks from Tehran.
Historically, geopolitical conflicts have little lasting effect on stocks. In data going back to 1980, the S&P 500 on average is unchanged the day after such an event, according to Barclays’ trading desk. Studies show stocks tend to recover within a month after the start of a conflict.
Steve Eisman says investors should ignore U.S.-Iran war, will be long-term 'positive'
When asked by CNBC's Joe Kernen whether he would change anything because of the conflict, the investor of "The Big Short" fame responded with, 'Not a single trade.'
www.cnbc.com
Iranian navy isn't the whole story.
The can make a transit of Hormuz pretty dicey with missiles.
The can make a transit of Hormuz pretty dicey with missiles.
Yes, but for how long? Word is that their missile stockpile is going to last days, not weeks. I think the longevity of this action is going to make a bigger impact than the missile impacts themselves.
King Samson
I'm Here
I'm sure, but I bet we're watching the coast, like a hawk, and as soon as a missile is launched, we destroy the launch site.
And everyone in the comment section below that article rips this moron to shreds. The navy has always been unnecessary to keep the straits closed. The long, long coastline of rugged mountains has launchers embedded throughout it. And the straits have now been shut for 2 days.
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
Day 3 vs Iran.
Yup. I want to see what's happening with the Middle Eastern oil reports and prices.
Because that's where the war is happening. Any impact-effect on these oil producing countries and their customers will start there. And their markets, which are primarily Asia, Europe, Africa.
WTI crude and Brent crude are good for the U.S. companies & stock market, but their production sites aren't in the war zone. So there's no physical impact on their production sites. Their supply is safe.
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It's not real wide, 24-60mi.
They don't need top-tier rockets to keep it closed.
With a 250mi standoff range, it makes for a lot of desert to watch.
Even their unguided Arash-4 rockets with a 40km range would stop transits.
They don't even have to hit anything, just make some noise in the area.
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King Samson
I'm Here
So, you don't think the DoW knew this, and will do everything in their power, to keep it open?
They're doing everything they can to stop Israel, Saudi Arabia, uae, etc. from getting hammered.
I doubt they have a specialty, "straits of Hormuz, rocket defense system".
I could be wrong tho, if you know of such, please enlighten me
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
The Straits are semi-opened, because some vessels are given permission to transit by the Iranians.
India, China, & Russian ships are allowed passage in and out.
The 6 tankers (3 on Day 1, 3 on Day 2) as of this morning that didn't get transit permission got hit, burned & sunk.
Iranian permission seems to be required for safe passage. Has a chilling effect on traffic.
This Persian Gulf area could be a potential turkey shoot for Iran.
Maritime map shows hundreds of tankers waiting inside the Persian Gulf, outside in the Gulf of Oman, hundreds more waiting.
Looks like a parking lot. Illuminating to say the least. One of the functions of the map is it can show you how many days any ship has been there. Lots of info on the maritime map. Highly useful.
No information posted on Telegram if the U.S. Navy has ships inside on the Persian Gulf. I doubt if there are any there.
wait-n-see
Veteran Member
We been getting told that Russia is running out of missiles since April 2022.
Iran was rumored to have the largest storage of Missiles in the ME, and a WAG is that they are getting new ones from Russia and China right now. Iran is doing the same thing they did last year, they are using the older models first.
We are the side who is running out of interceptors and missiles, even per our own military command.
Chicken Mama
Veteran Member
Delete. Wrong thread.
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Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
1st Time
This marks the first known instance of a Russian LNG carrier transiting the Red Sea while openly declaring India as its destination. Typically, these tankers avoid listing any specific destination in their AIS data and ultimately deliver to China.
Bros get energy, the EU can burn wood.
t.me
This marks the first known instance of a Russian LNG carrier transiting the Red Sea while openly declaring India as its destination. Typically, these tankers avoid listing any specific destination in their AIS data and ultimately deliver to China.
Bros get energy, the EU can burn wood.
Slavyangrad
This marks the first known instance of a Russian LNG carrier transiting the Red Sea while openly declaring India as its destination. Typically, these tankers avoid listing any specific destination in their AIS data and ultimately deliver to China. Bros get energy, the EU can burn wood...
t.me
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
Day 3: Ripple effects already impacting E.U. & Asia.
"Gas prices soar as Iranian attacks shut down Qatari production":
Gas prices in Europe have surged and are expected to continue rising.
"Amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in energy supplies, oil and gas prices surged on Monday, while global stock markets plummeted. European gas prices jumped by 24%. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports, is almost shut down, and Iran's retaliatory strikes against its neighbors threaten the infrastructure of Qatar and the UAE - key LNG exporters to Asia and Europe."
European stocks fell by 1.8%, with airlines and hotels hit particularly hard. Gold rose by 1.6% to $5,362 per ounce. Analysts note that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased exports to bypass the strait, and China has stockpiled reserves, which could alleviate the oil shortage."
t.me
"Gas prices soar as Iranian attacks shut down Qatari production":
Gas prices in Europe have surged and are expected to continue rising.
"Amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in energy supplies, oil and gas prices surged on Monday, while global stock markets plummeted. European gas prices jumped by 24%. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports, is almost shut down, and Iran's retaliatory strikes against its neighbors threaten the infrastructure of Qatar and the UAE - key LNG exporters to Asia and Europe."
European stocks fell by 1.8%, with airlines and hotels hit particularly hard. Gold rose by 1.6% to $5,362 per ounce. Analysts note that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased exports to bypass the strait, and China has stockpiled reserves, which could alleviate the oil shortage."
Slavyangrad
"Gas prices soar as Iranian attacks shut down Qatari production": Gas prices in Europe have surged and are expected to continue rising. "Amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in energy supplies, oil and gas prices surged on Monday, while global stock markets...
t.me
King Samson
I'm Here
We also have air superiority there now. I expect Trump and Pete to be working with drones and aircraft, and continue to take out the SAM sites sitting in the mountains, so they can get the Strait re-opened.
Cedar Lake
Connecticut Yankee
March 5, 2026: World view consequences for the rest of the world not involved with the Iran War.
The club is headed by Lloyd's of London.
The withdrawals are likely to discourage ship owners from loading cargoes within the Persian Gulf in the short-term, which is the source of about a fifth of the world’s supply of crude, and a key exporter of refined fuels and liquefied natural gas.
While cover for vessels is available from other providers, several market participants said costs for that had increased by at least 50% and in some case doubled.
From midnight London time on March 5, war-risk covers from seven clubs will be terminated automatically if vessels enter the Persian Gulf, specific adjacent waters or Iranian waters, according to notices seen by Bloomberg News. The notices stated that the withdrawals are a result of reinsurers for such policies issuing similar cancellations.
www.businessinsurance.com
The club is headed by Lloyd's of London.
Insurance Clubs to Halt Ship War-Risk Cover in Persian Gulf
The world’s largest maritime insurance mutuals said they will withdraw war risk insurance cover for ships entering the Persian Gulf starting on March 5, as the industry scrambles to work out how to price the cost of covering vessels sailing into the waterway.The withdrawals are likely to discourage ship owners from loading cargoes within the Persian Gulf in the short-term, which is the source of about a fifth of the world’s supply of crude, and a key exporter of refined fuels and liquefied natural gas.
While cover for vessels is available from other providers, several market participants said costs for that had increased by at least 50% and in some case doubled.
From midnight London time on March 5, war-risk covers from seven clubs will be terminated automatically if vessels enter the Persian Gulf, specific adjacent waters or Iranian waters, according to notices seen by Bloomberg News. The notices stated that the withdrawals are a result of reinsurers for such policies issuing similar cancellations.
Insurance Clubs to Halt Ship War-Risk Cover in Persian Gulf
Some P&I clubs are expected to issue similar cancellation notices to those published by other members of the International Group on March 2.
www.supplychainbrain.com
Insurers cancel war risk cover amid Iran conflict
Insurance companies are canceling war risk coverage for vessels in the Gulf as the widening Iran conflict disrupted shipping, leaving at least four tankers damaged, two seafarers killed and 150 ships…
www.businessinsurance.com
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