ECON FUNG RED *.*Economic Implications Concerning The Closing of the Strait of Hormuz (March 2026)
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King Samson
I'm Here
Sure thing... LOL...... How's your math??
Strait of Hormuz ship traffic near three-month low as U.S.-Iran deal in doubt
Traffic is about 90% lower than the daily average of 130 ships that transited Hormuz before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.www.cnbc.com
January 2026: 1,746 total, or 58 a Day, based on a 30 day calendar.
February 2026: 1,958 total, or 69 a Day, based on a 28 day calendar.
Seems a hell of a lot less than 130 a Day, before the "war" started, right?
Oh, and according to a few here, Iran controls the Strait... And it's CLOSED.... LOL...
Oh wait, what else is on that CNBC link:
......"However, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that oil exports through Hormuz have reached a seven-day average of nearly 9 million barrels per day as tankers transit the strait with U.S. military assistance. A single supertanker can carry about 2 million barrels.
Total oil exports from the Gulf states are averaging about 15 million bpd when pipelines are included, Wright said. Before the war, about 20 million bpd of crude oil and products were exported through Hormuz.
“Many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway,” the energy secretary said in a social media post.".....
Funny how your own link from CNBC actually disproves your assertions and narratives above. Pretty amazing, right?
Indeed!!
Cool story bro. So you are telling us that traffic is coming and going but just isn't being captured because AIS is turned off. Sounds awfully convenient given the administration (and your) penchant to create data to fit the argument. Its convenient that you base your assertions off of a lack of information (after all, no AIS is avalable to corroborate it) and somehow that remains much more valid than looking at port records.Let's see if I can help you a bit more, since you seem to not read the warnings on links you post.
What's the chance these ships, when being escorted by the Navy, turn off their AIS transponders, so your number is way low, as they can't be tracked? Any possibility?
Use of AIS in the Strait of Hormuz
Purpose of Turning Off AIS
Ships often disable their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) while navigating through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice is primarily aimed at avoiding detection by Iranian forces, particularly in contested maritime areas. The decision to turn off AIS is driven by security concerns amid escalating tensions in the region.
Navy Escort and AIS Status
When ships are escorted by the Navy, the situation regarding AIS can vary. The U.S. Navy has been involved in guiding vessels through the Strait, but there have been instances where ships still choose to turn off their AIS for added security. This is particularly true in high-risk areas where Iranian forces are active.
Disabling AIS is a common practice among vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, especially under the current geopolitical climate.
cydome.io
skuld.com
Wait, so you're telling me ships went outbound, unloaded their freight, then turned around to go back in, for another load?
Who knew that reading comprehension is THAT difficult? The point was that you argue in total number of transits, disregarding that half of those are empty coming back into the gulf and that of those leaving, the majority are cargo containers--not oil or LNG transports.
For the most part anyone with a pulse likely has a better--or at least more truthful--assessment of what is going on.
and from that site you see that your numbers here don't include tankers plus cargo ships; warships and vessels sailing dark.Sure thing... LOL...... How's your math??
January 2026: 1,746 total, or 58 a Day, based on a 30 day calendar.
February 2026: 1,958 total, or 69 a Day, based on a 28 day calendar.
https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/strait-of-hormuz/transits/
Seems a hell of a lot less than 130 a Day, before the "war" started, right?
When adding those in, you get the 130 ish daily. But I'm sure a freaking encyclopedia has a strong left bias on the matter. https://www.britannica.com/question/How-many-ships-pass-through-the-Strait-of-Hormuz
The same website you used there also gave the results for the last 14 days that show the booming transit of Hormuz...
but of course, that doesn't fit your narrative so we won't post that. Its pretty obvious that 9 million barrels a day aren't transiting via sea routes--and the primary pipeline has a capacity of 5 million BPD to the red sea. The vast majority of that is destined to China, but now is not transiting the Bab-al-Mandab. Additionally, oil that comes through that pipeline has to go north through the Suez, around Africa, back to the Indian Ocean to make it to the east Asia markets. Oh, and the primary VLCC carriers are too big to transit the Suez so no help there.
That is the most encouraging thing yet--you recognizing the problem is the first step. Lets see if you take a second.
Diesel Crack Spread Explodes To Record As Wall Street Warns Of Refined-Products “Perfect Storm”
Via ZeroHedge
Wall Street Warns About “Perfect Storm” Diesel Crunch:
- Goldman’s Daan Struyven Shows Global Diesel Exports Crashing
- Citi’s Anthony Yuen Warns: Global Diesel Inventories “Below 5YR Minimum“
- BofA’s Francisco Blanch Warns: “Diesel’s Perfect Summer Storm” Unfolding
- Jefferies’ Sam Burwell Warns: Hormuz Shock “Manifesting Itself In Cracks, Not Crude”
Brent briefly fell below $80 a barrel last week as prospects improved for an Iran-Oman deal to reopen the maritime chokepoint, before rebounding toward $90 as negotiations stalled this week.
Hormuz traffic has stabilized at about 10 crossings a day, down from 30 to 40 before the latest escalation. Liquids flows are averaging roughly 4 million barrels a day, well below public estimates of 9 million, according to HSBC analysts.
We earlier cited Jefferies analyst Sam Burwell, who warned clients:
“What this all shows is that global oil-market tightness is manifesting itself in cracks, not crude, at least for now. Wide cracks suggest refining runs should remain strong, however, which is positive for crude.
By lunchtime Thursday, the front-month US diesel crack spread (HOCL1 on the Terminal) had exceeded the $97 level reached in mid-March, when the US-Iran conflict was just three weeks old, and was closing in on $100. That signals extreme tightness in diesel.
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities at Bank of America, warned clients in a note earlier titled “Diesel’s Perfect Summer Storm” that the industrial fuel is “materially disrupted in 3 of 4 major regions” around the world.
As we recently warned (see report: The crude reality of oil markets), supply disruptions are amplifying the squeeze on petroleum markets.
Three of the world’s four major refining hubs remain impaired for one reason or another.
First, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent military activity has reduced Middle East fuel exports, with the recent Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery being the latest example.
Second, record Russian refining disruptions following Ukrainian strikes have removed significant volumes from the global diesel pool.
Third, fearful of potential domestic shortages, China has yet to restart petroleum product exports to the Asia region. As such, Europe has increasingly relied on record US exports to fill the gap.
Yet those flows are drawing down already tight US inventories, the only major hub open for business, creating a global competition for fuel that is pushing diesel cracks back toward record seasonal highs.
Beyond Ukraine drone-striking Russian energy assets, Moscow has decided to ban diesel exports; yet again, more evidence of dwindling global supplies:
Separately, Anthony Yuen, managing director and head of energy strategy at Citi Research, warned clients that global observed diesel inventories are “below the five-year minimum and not substantially lower than this,” adding, “The last time inventories were at a similar level was in 2022, when gasoil cracks globally were about $20/bbl lower than currently observed, and they were meaningfully lower in 2018.”
Goldman’s commodities expert Daan Struyven told clients earlier today:
Since the Iran war began, we have viewed the Hormuz shock as more disruptive for refined products, especially diesel, than for crude.
Near-record prompt diesel margins have already triggered a strong supply response from refiners with spare capacity, including higher utilization and a shift in yields toward diesel. As a result, outright diesel shortages still look unlikely this year.
Struyven showed that global diesel exports are crashing.
Kpler data suggest that Persian Gulf flows are down 80% year over year for diesel, versus 48% for crude.
BofA’s Blanch noted, “In short, absent a meaningful supply recovery, the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year.”
The clearest signal of how far the energy crisis has spread, even as Brent and WTI remain relatively calm, is now visible in refined-product markets, particularly diesel, where the blowout in crack spreads signals a severe global supply squeeze.
Hormuz Shock “Manifesting Itself In Cracks, Not Crude,” Jefferies Says
Brent crude futures held near recent highs of $90 a barrel before fading to around $87 early Thursday morning, as traders awaited progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Stalled US-Iran negotiations and tightening global fuel supplies continued to support prices and concern some top energy experts, who warn of a looming supply shock.
US-Iran talks remain deadlocked to end the week as the Trump administration maintains its blockade of Iranian ports and Tehran demands compensation for war-related damage. Pakistan, which has served as a mediator, said the broader peace talks had stalled.
Late Wednesday, President Trump wrote in a Truth Social post that the USA has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz and “I think we will keep it.” It’s also yet more confirmation that he’s opting for economic siege warfare while the US military campaign is on hold.
So far, Brent crude is headed for a weekly advance of nearly 5% as a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict remains murky and Ukrainian and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure tighten oil and, more critically, diesel markets.
Last week, our note titled “Winter Is Coming“ for Europe outlined how the energy-stricken continent faces a twin diesel and natural gas crunch.
Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg TV early last week that the global diesel-supply crunch is “what keeps her up at night.”
Saxo Markets strategist Charu Chanana said volatility will remain elevated until Hormuz reopens and the outlook for production becomes clearer.
Making matters worse, the International Energy Agency released a report on Wednesday that forecast a 1.8 million-barrel-a-day deficit this quarter, more than double its previous estimate. The agency also warned that elevated prices are beginning to crush demand and projected the widest annual supply shortfall in five years.
Offsetting higher prices was bearish US inventory data showing that crude stockpiles surged by 17.4 million barrels last week, the largest increase since January 2023, as exports weakened and imports from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela increased.
In short, unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon and fuel supplies recover meaningfully, the focus will remain on refined-product markets, particularly diesel. The critical industrial fuel is being squeezed globally, and as Bank of America’s commodities team warned, “the diesel market appears poised to stay tight, volatile, and expensive well into next year.”
This will continue to produce upward inflationary pressures on nearly all consumer goods.
King Samson
I'm Here
LOL... That came from the link YOU posted. Remember this:
Ahhh, the number INCLUDED those. Do you know what a "commercial" ship is? It's all commercial ships and they're called "Transits". It's ALL commercial ships
You even proved that in the next chart.... Duh:
"Transits" are the TOTAL of the Tankers AND the Cargo ships... so what you posted above was a total lie. Nice Job!!
Did you read the bottom of YOUR chart?? Of course you didn't. What does it say? ..."and Ships Sailing With Their AIS Transponders Off Are Not In The Series".... LOL...
The quote about how many barrels were moving was on your favorite Liberal news channel, CNBC, you know, part of the NBC family. Are you saying YOU know more than they do? And they're posting false information, or FAKE news?
LOL again... Did you even read the information at that link?? Of course you didn't.... "Daily traffic ranges typically from more than 80 ships to more than 130,"...
That's called a RANGE... 80 to 130. So, the daily count ISN'T 130... I Posted January and February numbers.. which are WAY below that.
And it gets even better, now YOU ARE adding back in the shadow fleet of ships with their AIS transponders off... Something you just claimed couldn't be measured, to get your 130 number.. LOL... Typical Liberal, accuse others of EXACTLY what you are doing in the first line of my reply....
Folks, you can't make this up!!
Hurr Durr
Actually, it was from the link you posted on the transports per month table. You conveniently left that out to lower the total transits in the table to show less of an impact by the war. Specifically on that webpage:
As above; the table you posted did not include non AIS shipping, but you don't note that do you? Further, transits include traffic in BOTH directions and, when looking at the second table I provided, make it clear that the administration (and your) assertions about oil traffic is BS.
Yes, and I included that in the image. You, however, did not in your original as you are minimizing the overall impact on shipping. In fact your absolutist position would mimic Trump that "Hormuz is open!" as long as abdul rows his kayak through the strait.
CNBC is clearly posting about what Wright was claiming. They further post the alternative takes on the data that many disagree with the 9 million BPD is incorrect. But you know that.
Oh, so 88 a day isn't correct? Seems like its a range dude.
Ahh, so thats the real basis of your style. Its performative, begging the audience for approval. That context makes all the difference.
And I do appreciate you simplifying your posts with the Hurr Durr--it accomplishes the same thing as all of the other bluster and unnecessary efforts to label things you don't agree with labels you don't understand. Simple and direct.
desert_fox
Threadkiller
Unfortunately, this was going to happen no matter what was going on in the Strait. The Strait will make our debt even higher and reduce economic output.
King Samson
I'm Here
Here, I'll make it even simpler for you, in hopes you can understand simple points.
If that oil wasn't getting through, like you're asserting, wouldn't Europe have run out of oil by now? Wouldn't there be shortages, gas lines, stations shut down, no oil for electric generation, etc. in those areas?
Then, you Panicans were claiming oil was going to $150, $200, or more a barrel. Did it?
Oil now is $81. Why is not $181., if this oil wasn't getting out of the Gulf like you claimed?
Oh, because oil IS getting out to the sources that need it...
Hurr Durr
And, your bonus question of the day, if these cargo ships aren't moving either, like you claim, what can't you buy TODAY, that you could buy in February, because of the delay in shipping with the Strait being "closed"?
Hurr Durr again
Not necessarily. Saudi Aramco estimates 2.6 billion barrels that have not reached market because of the war. Of that there has been significant amounts of oil reserves to keep the price lower. Most of the oil from the ME goes to East Asia, not Europe. Much of the US SPR has gone to offset Europe's shortfall. Also, refineries in Europe changed output to more critical stocks like diesel and jet fuel. The European economy has also shed over 5 million barrels per day since the war started--a phenomenon seen in other areas--because the global economy is faltering and with drop in demand (also lowering prices). Those adaptations are temporary and unsustainable if ME oil continues to be offline or we draw down the SPR to required minimums and no longer subsidize their needs.
Explained above, though I doubt your comprehension can get it.
Again, thank you for simplifying your response.
Seeing as the vast majority of goods that come from the region go to East Asia and not here why would I expect to see shortages here? Look there--you can find rationing and outright shortages of
cooking gas (LPG)
Gasoline and Diesel
Industrial chemcals
Fertilizer
Jet Fuel
Packaging, plastic bottles, car parts, clothing fibers, cosmetics, etc.
These are in spite of releasing petroleum reserves.
from Karl Denninger this morning:
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Oh, you can claim otherwise, but it is effectively closed. The claims of our government otherwise are simply not borne out in the supply of oil; you can claim something went through a channel but then it has to wind up somewhere, and it hasn't.
Never mind Marinetraffic which continues to show a crap-ton of vessels at anchor on both sides of it rather than moving through it -- and a crap-ton of tankers that are "technically" moving, but at a fraction of a knot.
There are a lot of vessels just sitting in the gulf. Its fair to presume they have crews on them (duh!) and are consuming supplies. Who's supplying them? It takes fuel to keep the generator plant running for power, water, HVAC and similar (you'd like to flush the toilet, right?) never mind having something to eat and a way to cook it. Yes, these are not military vessels and don't have huge crews but there are people on board all of whom need supplies and further, a non-moving boat collects a lot of marine growth on the hull and running gear too.
Contrast with the strait to the WSW around Yemen where there is clearly traffic moving. Then again blocking that is not a one-way exit in that the Suez is available to the North, albeit rather inconvenient if your destination is in Asia.
So what's going on here? Well, quite-obviously the markets don't think this is a big deal otherwise both oil would be in the stratosphere and the markets would be in the tank because without fuel, particularly diesel, nothing moves. Neither is occurring.
Is this just a huge dose of hopium being carried around or was the Strait never what it was claimed to be by either side? Certainly its not open despite the claims of whoever wishes to say so; while vessels under transit might well go AIS-dark for security reasons once clear they won't because they can't; international marine law is very clear on this point.
Thus I have to take as fact that the oil is not flowing.
Thus.... what's hiding and where?
Well there are only two and a half explanations and you won't like either of them as neither can explain it but both at once does. The half is easy; storage at the time it started can be drawn down and has been. And while one of the wholes is at least somewhat-speculative the other is not; it is factual and the media has ignored it although I've certainly reported on it.
The somewhat speculative one is demand destruction. I've seen enough patterns of behavior in the form of traffic, business and now in the CPI in hotel prices down 4% m/o/m to believe its real. What I see in my particular area and when traveling (remember I recently was chasing train) is by no means a national snapshot but the CPI index is. A 4% drop month over month in the price of hotels in the middle of the summer, the highest demand period for travel and tourism, is a screaming warning of economic softness. Essentially all such travel is discretionary, of course, and when people get squeezed that's where the spending goes away first.
The not-speculative one at all is the non-job numbers; absent health care and social services the economy has lost nearly a half-million jobs since Trump took office. If you doubt this go look at FRED yourself, download the two series and chart it in Excel or similar. Zero of the jobs in those two segments actually build anything; they are in many cases necessary but in all cases parasitic to the economy as a whole and all of them are utterly dependent on continued deficit spending.
Worse, the current run rate for interest in the federal budget is approximately $1.3 trillion and rising rapidly. We are now in the exponential upward-sloping phase of said expense and more deficit spending, which must continue for those two sectors to keep the existing jobs, say much less add more of them, is utterly reliant on that. Yet that CANNOT continue on a forward basis or the interest expense will literally eat the entire federal budget and force a fiscal collapse.
In this context demand destruction makes perfect sense and the Government is attempting to keep -- so far successfully -- the market from detonating by trying to hide that otherwise-obvious demand destruction through this one segment by said deficit spending. The strategy might make sense if there was a return on same over a reasonable period of time but there isn't because those two segments at best allow people to keep working in other areas who can contribute tangible advance -- being net neutral, in other words, is the best they can do.
Meanwhile the spiraling interest expense continues and as you can see clearly from that graph it has now gone vertical ( see graph here at the Fed: )
which, as I pointed out, is entirely due to the natural cycle of interest rates turning in 2019 and rather than anticipate and pay down debt or roll it way out on the curve (e.g. into the 30 year Treasury) while said very low rates were available the government did the exact opposite and so did corporations.
Note that this non health-care and social assistance area includes literally everything else. Yes, your supposed AI "nirvana" employment, those building data centers, paving roads, constructing bridges, houses, office buildings, digging up oil and gas, making and install solar panels, building cars and trucks -- all of it. All-in a half-million jobs, and this is not population adjusted (population adjusted that number is nearly negative three and a half million!) have disappeared since January of 2025.
That latter indication has been, as I've noted repeatedly, negative on an unbroken basis since December of 2023 so the acts and policies that put this in motion cannot be pinned on the Trump Administration. But he has not only done nothing to correct it he's made it worse while allowing the deficit spending to ramp and interest payments to exponentially expand.
No exponential series can or ever does grow to the sky -- or the Moon. All such attempts fail because mathematically they must.
The question now is what breaks first?
I don't know, but this is the same sort of "hopium" bong smoke hanging over the entire economy and market that was quite-apparent from the summer of 2007 into the summer of 2008 when "subprime is contained" was the mantra. Yes, a few people lost their highly-leveraged bet money, but such is the nature of buying Powerball tickets, so the story was claimed to be, and as you can see the interest expense and deficit spend then was a tiny fraction of what it is now.
That time it was a lie.
An Oily Conundrum
<p>The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Oh, you can claim otherwise, but it is effectively closed. The claims of our government otherwise are simply not borne out in the supply of oil; you can claim something went through a channel but then it has to wind
market-ticker.org
An Oily Conundrum
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Oh, you can claim otherwise, but it is effectively closed. The claims of our government otherwise are simply not borne out in the supply of oil; you can claim something went through a channel but then it has to wind up somewhere, and it hasn't.
Never mind Marinetraffic which continues to show a crap-ton of vessels at anchor on both sides of it rather than moving through it -- and a crap-ton of tankers that are "technically" moving, but at a fraction of a knot.
There are a lot of vessels just sitting in the gulf. Its fair to presume they have crews on them (duh!) and are consuming supplies. Who's supplying them? It takes fuel to keep the generator plant running for power, water, HVAC and similar (you'd like to flush the toilet, right?) never mind having something to eat and a way to cook it. Yes, these are not military vessels and don't have huge crews but there are people on board all of whom need supplies and further, a non-moving boat collects a lot of marine growth on the hull and running gear too.
Contrast with the strait to the WSW around Yemen where there is clearly traffic moving. Then again blocking that is not a one-way exit in that the Suez is available to the North, albeit rather inconvenient if your destination is in Asia.
So what's going on here? Well, quite-obviously the markets don't think this is a big deal otherwise both oil would be in the stratosphere and the markets would be in the tank because without fuel, particularly diesel, nothing moves. Neither is occurring.
Is this just a huge dose of hopium being carried around or was the Strait never what it was claimed to be by either side? Certainly its not open despite the claims of whoever wishes to say so; while vessels under transit might well go AIS-dark for security reasons once clear they won't because they can't; international marine law is very clear on this point.
Thus I have to take as fact that the oil is not flowing.
Thus.... what's hiding and where?
Well there are only two and a half explanations and you won't like either of them as neither can explain it but both at once does. The half is easy; storage at the time it started can be drawn down and has been. And while one of the wholes is at least somewhat-speculative the other is not; it is factual and the media has ignored it although I've certainly reported on it.
The somewhat speculative one is demand destruction. I've seen enough patterns of behavior in the form of traffic, business and now in the CPI in hotel prices down 4% m/o/m to believe its real. What I see in my particular area and when traveling (remember I recently was chasing train) is by no means a national snapshot but the CPI index is. A 4% drop month over month in the price of hotels in the middle of the summer, the highest demand period for travel and tourism, is a screaming warning of economic softness. Essentially all such travel is discretionary, of course, and when people get squeezed that's where the spending goes away first.
The not-speculative one at all is the non-job numbers; absent health care and social services the economy has lost nearly a half-million jobs since Trump took office. If you doubt this go look at FRED yourself, download the two series and chart it in Excel or similar. Zero of the jobs in those two segments actually build anything; they are in many cases necessary but in all cases parasitic to the economy as a whole and all of them are utterly dependent on continued deficit spending.
Worse, the current run rate for interest in the federal budget is approximately $1.3 trillion and rising rapidly. We are now in the exponential upward-sloping phase of said expense and more deficit spending, which must continue for those two sectors to keep the existing jobs, say much less add more of them, is utterly reliant on that. Yet that CANNOT continue on a forward basis or the interest expense will literally eat the entire federal budget and force a fiscal collapse.
In this context demand destruction makes perfect sense and the Government is attempting to keep -- so far successfully -- the market from detonating by trying to hide that otherwise-obvious demand destruction through this one segment by said deficit spending. The strategy might make sense if there was a return on same over a reasonable period of time but there isn't because those two segments at best allow people to keep working in other areas who can contribute tangible advance -- being net neutral, in other words, is the best they can do.
Meanwhile the spiraling interest expense continues and as you can see clearly from that graph it has now gone vertical ( see graph here at the Fed: )
which, as I pointed out, is entirely due to the natural cycle of interest rates turning in 2019 and rather than anticipate and pay down debt or roll it way out on the curve (e.g. into the 30 year Treasury) while said very low rates were available the government did the exact opposite and so did corporations.
Note that this non health-care and social assistance area includes literally everything else. Yes, your supposed AI "nirvana" employment, those building data centers, paving roads, constructing bridges, houses, office buildings, digging up oil and gas, making and install solar panels, building cars and trucks -- all of it. All-in a half-million jobs, and this is not population adjusted (population adjusted that number is nearly negative three and a half million!) have disappeared since January of 2025.
That latter indication has been, as I've noted repeatedly, negative on an unbroken basis since December of 2023 so the acts and policies that put this in motion cannot be pinned on the Trump Administration. But he has not only done nothing to correct it he's made it worse while allowing the deficit spending to ramp and interest payments to exponentially expand.
No exponential series can or ever does grow to the sky -- or the Moon. All such attempts fail because mathematically they must.
The question now is what breaks first?
I don't know, but this is the same sort of "hopium" bong smoke hanging over the entire economy and market that was quite-apparent from the summer of 2007 into the summer of 2008 when "subprime is contained" was the mantra. Yes, a few people lost their highly-leveraged bet money, but such is the nature of buying Powerball tickets, so the story was claimed to be, and as you can see the interest expense and deficit spend then was a tiny fraction of what it is now.
That time it was a lie.
Southside
Has No Timebombs, Lives on Life
THIS is fact. What I am afraid of is that our reality is WE ARE IN A DEPRESSION!
The demand is down, the supply is down. Prices are static.
In 1974 a 6% decrease in supply caused a doubling of price. I am sure that we have suffered a reduction in supply of more than 6%, yet no big cost increases.
Yep. depression.
US retail sales weakest in over a year, consumer sentiment plunges
US retail sales weakest in over a year, consumer sentiment plungesUS retail sales gave their weakest showing in more than a year and consumer sentiment plunged, data showed Friday, as households battered by fallout from President Donald Trump's Iran war curbed spending and raised their expectations of inflation.
Total US retail sales were down 0.6 percent in July from the previous month, at $763.6 billion, said the Department of Commerce.
A new US consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan showed confidence dropped by around eight percent in August, ending two months of gains.
The United States and Israel launched the war against Iran on February 28, plunging the Middle East into conflict and sending energy prices skyrocketing as Tehran retaliated by attacking Washington's Gulf allies and snarling a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies.
The war has sent inflation -- already elevated from the US Federal Reserve's long-term two-percent target -- surging, and has hit American households battered by years of high prices hard.
Expectations for inflation in the year ahead ticked up from 4.2 percent in July to 4.3 percent in August, the University of Michigan survey showed. That is substantially higher than pre-war levels.
Trump's Republican Party faces a stern test at upcoming midterm elections in November, with Democrats seeking to wrest control of both houses of Congress. Trump's handling of the economy will be a key issue at the polls.
- 'Disappointing' -
Analysts had expected a 0.1 percent uptick in retail sales in July, and all eyes are on US consumer health as households grapple with inflation while drawing down on their savings.
Excluding sales at auto dealers and gasoline stations, sales dipped 0.2 percent on a month-on-month basis.
"American consumers are showing signs of fatigue. July retail sales were disappointing on all levels," said Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long.
Consumers likely brought forward their spending to capitalize on online sales events in June, Long said. But she warned: "Even with lower spending on gas in July, consumers weren't eager to spend elsewhere."
US regular gasoline prices are up more than 35 percent since the start of the war, but cooled slightly in July as hopes rose for a resolution to the war. The reduction in prices sent gasoline sales down by 0.9 percent, the data showed.
Among major categories, retail sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were down 1.8 percent from the prior month. Spending ticked down at grocery stores too, while hobby spending was lackluster.
Old Greek
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Whats the problem? A super large majority of the young do not want to work. Just play on their phones all day. My friends and I, four of us all are still working, because we want to work. We are all 72-73 years old. All in our own business.
More work for us.
Societies and economies tend to collapse when that happens.
King Samson
I'm Here
The largest chuck of those NOT working, are young Americans. Why is that?
Because American society is failing and the Iran War is helping that process along.
King Samson
I'm Here
So, a military operation that's been going on for 5 months, is why young Americans haven't been working for years??
Sure... Got it!
hiwall
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I think many more people have "jobs" that do not get recorded as jobs. They have blogs or other things on the internet where they do make money yet it is not labeled as a job.
I sell my books on the internet and I don't think I am labeled as 'in the work force'.
Many people make money selling things on ebay or etsy or other places where they make an income but likely do not show up as 'in the work force'.
Today's world is quite different than it used to be and way more complicated.
Old classifications don't quite match up to many new things.
That said obviously our country is losing jobs. Ai is likely part of that but like most things now it is a more complicated answer.
I sell my books on the internet and I don't think I am labeled as 'in the work force'.
Many people make money selling things on ebay or etsy or other places where they make an income but likely do not show up as 'in the work force'.
Today's world is quite different than it used to be and way more complicated.
Old classifications don't quite match up to many new things.
That said obviously our country is losing jobs. Ai is likely part of that but like most things now it is a more complicated answer.
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
With respect those numbers mirror the amount of immigrants removed from the country. The AI bubble is going to push more and more countries to eject any unnaturalized resident as more and more robots replace menial jobs. Innitially the AI robots will replace empty positions and make staffing shortages not so severe. It will be a few year before whole on industries will become less humanized. But we are seeing even now that we will still have human workers, the roles and abilities will change... The supply crunch for rare earths and processors/memory is the limiting factor on increased robot production. The tariff wars and China being butts is working in our favor preventing mass robotic replacements...
King Samson
I'm Here
How does that compare to your $7 a gallon gas, in your country?
Apparently this is what “winning” looks like.
Hope you like “winning” cause more is on the way.
I’m ready to win so much that I’m going to wish there wasn’t so much winning!
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Tnx...for the warning. This warning needs to be heeded. Oct. Is right around the corner.
Last edited:
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
Bond yields are going higher.
Market close:
US Markets
Up to date market data and stock market news is available online. View US market headlines and market charts. Get the latest economy news, markets in our Market Overview.
www.cnbc.com
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-YR | 4.728 | +0.032 | +0.681 |
| EUR/USD | 1.158 | +0.001 | +0.078 |
| *GOLD | 4,473.8 | +36.5 | +0.82 |
| *OIL | 84.6 | +2.2 | +2.67 |
| NASDAQ | 26,644.911 | -84.253 | -0.32 |
| S&P 500 | 7,745.06 | -40.7 | -0.52 |
| DJIA | 53,459.78 | -272.63 | -0.51 |
| VIX | 15.19 | +0.94 | +6.6 |
Stock Indexes
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| *NYSE | 24,719.41 | -102.27 | -0.41 |
| UTIL | 1,108.72 | -3.67 | -0.33 |
| *RUSS 2K | 3,057.545 | -10.871 | -0.35 |
| TRAN | 21,844.43 | +52.04 | +0.24 |
| NASDAQ 100 | 29,995.381 | -50.76 | -0.17 |
Commodities
| SYMBOL | PRICE | CHANGE | %CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| *SOYBEAN | 1,216 | +23.5 | +1.97 |
| *WHEAT | 689.25 | -0.25 | -0.04 |
| *SILVER | 65.97 | +0.862 | +1.32 |
| *CORN | 489 | +5.75 | +1.19 |
| *NAT GAS | 2.703 | -0.03 | -1.1 |
| *RBOB GAS | 3.266 | +0.082 | +2.56 |
| *ULSD HO | 4.445 | +0.162 | +3.78 |
| *COPPER | 6.612 | -0.001 | -0.02 |
Treasurys
| SYMBOL | YIELD | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| US 1-MO | 3.696 | +0.003 |
| US 3-MO | 3.79 | -0.003 |
| US 6-MO | 3.91 | -0.001 |
| US 1-YR | 3.99 | +0.013 |
| US 2-YR | 4.184 | +0.013 |
| US 10-YR | 4.728 | +0.032 |
| US 30-YR | 5.315 | +0.049 |
Currencies
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
The 10 yr
just ticked up to 4.7% ....ONCE it hits 5% game over
By the way...very informative post.
just ticked up to 4.7% ....ONCE it hits 5% game over
By the way...very informative post.
King Samson
I'm Here
Gee.. that guy must have issues reading charts... from his own site, the price DROPPED the past week. Hhhmmm. I wonder is he's using New Zealand math....
And... it's certainly better than $7 a gallon gas over there.... LOL...
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
LOL! GIGGITY
bracketquant
Has No Life - Lives on TB
But, only likely to an extent that consumers can or will continue to make purchases. If consumers do not purchase, retailers will likely have to lower their prices, in order to raise revenue, in order to pay their debts. Quickly perishable products will likely be needed to be lowered further and faster.
That's the beauty of this economic system, that is almost entirely based upon debt. There are buffers that don't allow inflation, for many products and services, to get completely out of hand.
West
Senior
Interesting line of thought.
I'll muse that once the consumers stop buying what ever the product or service. The capitalist that provide said services or products have to lay off their employees and or down size in other ways. Causing pain on the street. And less capitalism is not good.
Why big businesses keep winning and forcing small main street businesses to fail.
The little guy can't self insure and shop mandated payroll liabilities across state lines, or buy products by the train load. But they have to pay all the mandates at higher cost, because their small fries.
Not to mention inventory taxes in some states and not others. Big businesses often have there stocks stored in states that don't have inventory taxes.
Also big businesses that can use foreign labors with Visa type labors, don't have to pay Unemployment insurance like small businesses do with local labor.
I can go on, and on...
We need honest money or else main street, Broadway and alike become trash even more so.
wait-n-see
Veteran Member
Chokepoint Chaos: Global Shipping Under Pressure
Run time - 30:16
Aug 17, 2026
The global shipping industry is currently facing unprecedented disruptions as key maritime chokepoints around the world experience simultaneous crises. From geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to environmental challenges affecting canal transits, the "arteries" of global trade are under immense pressure. In this video, we break down the current state of these critical passages and what the ongoing "Chokepoint Chaos" means for the global supply chain, fuel costs, and the stability of international commerce.
An in-depth analysis of the current status of the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Panama Canal.How recent geopolitical shifts and local conflicts are directly impacting commercial shipping routes.The ripple effects of vessel diversions on global port congestion and fuel surcharges.Why these bottlenecks are more vulnerable now than ever before.What consumers and industry professionals should expect as we head into the next quarter of the 2026 shipping crisis.00:00 Introduction: The Seven Global Hot Spots
00:33 Strait of Hormuz: Environmental Risks & Security Threats
09:03 Bab el-Mandeb: The Houthi Blockade & Diversions
11:09 Panama Canal: Record Bids to Skip the Line
15:00 Black Sea: Anti-Drone Defenses & Tanker Strikes
19:12 Northern Sea Route: Arctic Navigation Risks
21:03 Taiwan Strait & South China Sea: Legal & Military Posturing
24:41 Europe’s Rivers: Record Lows on the Rhine & Danube
27:51 Conclusion: The Converging Impact on Global Trade
29:06 Personal Note
1. Stricken tanker could generate ‘one of the more significant’ oil spills in history
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158198/...
Fresh Adnoc tanker attack claims underscore prolonged Hormuz security threat
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158192/...
Covert Mideast Oil Flows Are Keeping Global Prices In Check
https://gcaptain.com/covert-mideast-o...
Trump Administration Says Gulf Oil Flows Recover to 15 Million Barrels a Day
https://gcaptain.com/trump-administra...
IEA Warns Oil Market Risks Mount as Hormuz Disruptions Drain Inventories
https://gcaptain.com/iea-warns-oil-ma...
Iranian Attacks Push Hormuz Shipping Toward Tehran-Controlled Route
https://gcaptain.com/iranian-attacks-...
Trump Pledges to Make Hormuz a "Territory of the United States"
https://maritime-executive.com/articl...
2. Red Sea traffic holds firm despite Houthi blockade as UN warns Yemen on brink of renewed war
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158196/...
3. Black Sea Oil Tanker Rates Surge to Record on Drones Barrage
https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-oil-ta...
Ukraine Halts Strikes on Tankers Using Russian Port at U.S. Request
https://gcaptain.com/ukraine-halts-st...
Ukraine seeks Black Sea shipping truce as drones hit Ust-Luga
https://splash247.com/ukraine-seeks-b...
4. Supertanker Pays Record $4.6 Million to Skip Panama Canal Line
https://gcaptain.com/supertanker-pays...
Ship Pays $4 Million to Cut the Line at Panama Canal
https://gcaptain.com/ship-pays-4-mill...
5. Arctic Ice Damages Tanker as Russia Ramps Up Northern Sea Route Oil Shipments
https://gcaptain.com/arctic-ice-damag...
6. Taiwan Condemns ‘Dangerous’ Planned Chinese Navy Drill with Indonesia to Its East
https://gcaptain.com/taiwan-condemns-...
Scarborough Shoal and the Philippines’ Paper Trail in the South China Sea
https://maritime-executive.com/editor...
7. Rhine River Hits Record Low, Deepening Shipping Crisis
https://gcaptain.com/rhine-river-hits...
Black Sea Grain Exports Squeezed as Danube Hits Record-Low Levels
https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-grain-...
bracketquant
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Your bringing up mandated payroll liabilities to numerous threads will always be on my BINGO card. I don't mind.
Tom McDowell
BAMN
Yuck. Problems abound.Chokepoint Chaos: Global Shipping Under Pressure
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTMjbx3-57E
Run time - 30:16
Aug 17, 2026
The global shipping industry is currently facing unprecedented disruptions as key maritime chokepoints around the world experience simultaneous crises. From geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to environmental challenges affecting canal transits, the "arteries" of global trade are under immense pressure. In this video, we break down the current state of these critical passages and what the ongoing "Chokepoint Chaos" means for the global supply chain, fuel costs, and the stability of international commerce.
00:00 Introduction: The Seven Global Hot Spots
00:33 Strait of Hormuz: Environmental Risks & Security Threats
09:03 Bab el-Mandeb: The Houthi Blockade & Diversions
11:09 Panama Canal: Record Bids to Skip the Line
15:00 Black Sea: Anti-Drone Defenses & Tanker Strikes
19:12 Northern Sea Route: Arctic Navigation Risks
21:03 Taiwan Strait & South China Sea: Legal & Military Posturing
24:41 Europe’s Rivers: Record Lows on the Rhine & Danube
27:51 Conclusion: The Converging Impact on Global Trade
29:06 Personal Note
1. Stricken tanker could generate ‘one of the more significant’ oil spills in history
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158198/...
Fresh Adnoc tanker attack claims underscore prolonged Hormuz security threat
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158192/...
Covert Mideast Oil Flows Are Keeping Global Prices In Check
https://gcaptain.com/covert-mideast-o...
Trump Administration Says Gulf Oil Flows Recover to 15 Million Barrels a Day
https://gcaptain.com/trump-administra...
IEA Warns Oil Market Risks Mount as Hormuz Disruptions Drain Inventories
https://gcaptain.com/iea-warns-oil-ma...
Iranian Attacks Push Hormuz Shipping Toward Tehran-Controlled Route
https://gcaptain.com/iranian-attacks-...
Trump Pledges to Make Hormuz a "Territory of the United States"
https://maritime-executive.com/articl...
2. Red Sea traffic holds firm despite Houthi blockade as UN warns Yemen on brink of renewed war
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158196/...
3. Black Sea Oil Tanker Rates Surge to Record on Drones Barrage
https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-oil-ta...
Ukraine Halts Strikes on Tankers Using Russian Port at U.S. Request
https://gcaptain.com/ukraine-halts-st...
Ukraine seeks Black Sea shipping truce as drones hit Ust-Luga
https://splash247.com/ukraine-seeks-b...
4. Supertanker Pays Record $4.6 Million to Skip Panama Canal Line
https://gcaptain.com/supertanker-pays...
Ship Pays $4 Million to Cut the Line at Panama Canal
https://gcaptain.com/ship-pays-4-mill...
5. Arctic Ice Damages Tanker as Russia Ramps Up Northern Sea Route Oil Shipments
https://gcaptain.com/arctic-ice-damag...
6. Taiwan Condemns ‘Dangerous’ Planned Chinese Navy Drill with Indonesia to Its East
https://gcaptain.com/taiwan-condemns-...
Scarborough Shoal and the Philippines’ Paper Trail in the South China Sea
https://maritime-executive.com/editor...
7. Rhine River Hits Record Low, Deepening Shipping Crisis
https://gcaptain.com/rhine-river-hits...
Black Sea Grain Exports Squeezed as Danube Hits Record-Low Levels
https://gcaptain.com/black-sea-grain-...
Stock up.
===
.
bracketquant
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Cat fight
- Status