ECON FUNG RED *.*Economic Implications Concerning The Closing of the Strait of Hormuz (March 2026)

Brent oil price posts biggest monthly loss in six years as market counts on a U.S.-Iran deal​

Key Points
  • The international oil benchmark fell just over 19% in May, its worst month since March 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic closed economies.
  • President Trump indicated he might make a decision soon about an agreement with Iran.
  • But Trump laid out a series of demands Friday that Iran has been unwilling to agree to in the past.
Brent oil posted its biggest monthly loss in six years as traders hoped that the U.S. and Iran are nearing a deal that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The international oil benchmark fell more than 19% in May, its worst month since March 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic closed economies. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices shed nearly 17% in May, its worst performance since April 2025.

Prices fell Friday after President Trump said he would meet in the White House Situation Room to make a final determination about an agreement with Iran. West Texas Intermediate lost 1.73% to close at $87.36 per barrel while Brent fell 1.77% to settle at $92.05 per barrel.

www.cnbc.com

Brent oil price posts biggest monthly loss in six years as market counts on a U.S.-Iran deal

Oil prices fell Friday after President Trump said he would meet in the White House Situation Room to make a final decision about a deal with Iran.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

1780111114784.png
 
The market is assuming (betting on) a Trump win over Iran.

We will only know for certain in the fullness of time.
 
von Koehler said:
The market is assuming (betting on) a Trump win over Iran.

We will only know for certain in the fullness of time.
Click to expand...
Eleven pages and the uncertainty is escalating. A few too many heavy hitter “allies” of Iran in the mix.
way too many enemies in the streets of our cities (and boardrooms and universities) to feel confident that there can be an outcome that resolves anything long lasting. Feels like we invaded the lair of deadly venomous snakes carrying diseases we know nothing about. I guess that’s when and why we rely on the military to figure it out. I hope the scientific community is up to the task…
 
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It's dropping!!!!

Brent oil dips below $80 per barrel for first time since March​

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in three months on Tuesday, as investors continue to await details on the U.S.-Iran agreement to bring the Middle East conflict to an end.

Brent crude futures briefly fell to $79.96 per barrel, the first time the international benchmark has traded below $80 since March. It was last trading about 3.6% lower at $80.19 as of 8:28 a.m. ET.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down about 3.8% to $77.71.

www.cnbc.com

Brent falls below $80 per barrel on report U.S. will allow Iran to sell oil immediately

Global oil prices tumbled to a three-month low on Tuesday as the Iran peace agreement dominated the G7 meeting in France.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Back to where it was the first week of March, a week after the fun started:

1781621597478.png
 
It ain't over ' till the FAT LADY SINGS. When the price of petrol at the pump drops below $2.90 per gallon....I may become a believer. Remember there are "untoward" forces that are excited by chaos...bloodshed...and carnage. They have plagued mankind for eons....just sayin
 
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King Samson said:
It's dropping!!!!

Brent oil dips below $80 per barrel for first time since March​

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in three months on Tuesday, as investors continue to await details on the U.S.-Iran agreement to bring the Middle East conflict to an end.

Brent crude futures briefly fell to $79.96 per barrel, the first time the international benchmark has traded below $80 since March. It was last trading about 3.6% lower at $80.19 as of 8:28 a.m. ET.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down about 3.8% to $77.71.

www.cnbc.com

Brent falls below $80 per barrel on report U.S. will allow Iran to sell oil immediately

Global oil prices tumbled to a three-month low on Tuesday as the Iran peace agreement dominated the G7 meeting in France.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Back to where it was the first week of March, a week after the fun started:

View attachment 607271
Click to expand...

And the trend is fairly positive. Aside from that bump in late May, it's been on a mostly downward cant since mid-May. Not exactly a huge trend to build from, but it's there.
 

I predicted this weeks ago. Once the Strait reopens, there will be a glut of oil, searching for a home....​

Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz​

Crude cargo arrivals in Asia from the Middle East could accelerate in the coming weeks as more than 60 million barrels of oil stuck in the Persian Gulf prepare to exit the Strait of Hormuz and head to Asian markets once the chokepoint reopens to traffic.

About 62 million barrels of crude oil on nearly three dozen supertankers are expected to make their way to Asia within weeks after the Strait reopens, according to Signal Group data carried by Bloomberg.

Asia, which felt the supply shock first and the most as early as in March, could now see a wave of much-delayed crude supply that would weigh on prices. Refiners in Asia, including China, have slashed run rates in response to the loss of supply from the Middle East and the high prices to procure alternative cargoes.

The supply waiting to exit the Strait of Hormuz could prompt some refiners to increase processing rates or opt for replenishing commercial stock tanks that have been drawn down over the past three months.

Asia, however, appears to have stocked up on enough supply at least for June and July after turning to West Africa and South and North America to offset the losses from the Middle East.

Asian refiners are well-supplied for the coming weeks, anonymous traders with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg.

The expected imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investment banks to slash their oil price forecasts for this year and next.

Morgan Stanley, for example, now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter. The bank’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was unchanged.

Goldman Sachs cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts. According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.

Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
King Samson said:

I predicted this weeks ago. Once the Strait reopens, there will be a glut of oil, searching for a home....​

Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz​

Crude cargo arrivals in Asia from the Middle East could accelerate in the coming weeks as more than 60 million barrels of oil stuck in the Persian Gulf prepare to exit the Strait of Hormuz and head to Asian markets once the chokepoint reopens to traffic.

About 62 million barrels of crude oil on nearly three dozen supertankers are expected to make their way to Asia within weeks after the Strait reopens, according to Signal Group data carried by Bloomberg.

Asia, which felt the supply shock first and the most as early as in March, could now see a wave of much-delayed crude supply that would weigh on prices. Refiners in Asia, including China, have slashed run rates in response to the loss of supply from the Middle East and the high prices to procure alternative cargoes.

The supply waiting to exit the Strait of Hormuz could prompt some refiners to increase processing rates or opt for replenishing commercial stock tanks that have been drawn down over the past three months.

Asia, however, appears to have stocked up on enough supply at least for June and July after turning to West Africa and South and North America to offset the losses from the Middle East.

Asian refiners are well-supplied for the coming weeks, anonymous traders with knowledge of the situation told Bloomberg.

The expected imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investment banks to slash their oil price forecasts for this year and next.

Morgan Stanley, for example, now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter. The bank’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was unchanged.

Goldman Sachs cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts. According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.

Asian Refiners Swamped, Brace For Over 60 Million Barrels Of Oil Ready To Exit Hormuz<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
Click to expand...
I think all the oil coming out of the Gulf will create a back log to unload at the refineries. I expect to drop way lower than $75 before stabilizing. Side note. Had to go to town for Doctor. Cheapest station selling diesel was $4.17. Lowest since the war. Came out of doctor two hours later and the same station dropped price to $4.00. They are going to have to move it to stabilize. Lower pump price is the option. Hope it don’t stabilize for a few years.
 
Just noticed, look at the oil chart from the past year. Oil is down to just about where it was a year ago, when things were relatively calm. Look where the dotted line connects to on the left side of the chart:

1781813680906.png
 
K.S. here are MY investment priorities.

Energy....minerals... pm's...fertilizer ...and food. There will be mutual funds that will priotize these items....this is my humble opinion.
 
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doctor_fungcool said:
K.S. here are MY investment priorities.

Energy....minerals... pm's...fertilizer ...and food. There will be mutual funds that will priotize these items....this is my humble opinion.
Click to expand...
LOL... Here's my investment priorities:

Defense stocks, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Energy, Dividend ETFs, Cash, Food, guaranteed income.... and my dog... LOL...
 
King Samson said:
LOL... Here's my investment priorities:

Defense stocks, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Energy, Dividend ETFs, Cash, Food, guaranteed income.... and my dog... LOL...
Click to expand...
My 2 Yorkies and my king sheppard come first....always. Treats...baths...walks...and whatever it takes to make them happy. I come second. That' s the way it is.
 
doctor_fungcool said:
My 2 Yorkies and my king sheppard come first....always. Treats...baths...walks...and whatever it takes to make them happy. I come second. That' s the way it is.
Click to expand...
LOL... I agree... What I've spent on dog related stuff, the last few years, I could have bought a really nice new truck... Oh well..

Wifey always says, "you like that dog, better than me"... My answer, ....silence.... LOL..
 
Oil may drop closer to the 50's and that is when Trump gets the SPR filled at around the same price as his first term when he directed congress to fill it at $53.47. Democrats blocked it. Thanks to Nancy Pelosi.
 
Oil still heading South.... take a look at the left side of the chart, we've been at the current $72 price levels, multiple times, the past few years.

Are we saved??

1782233304208.png
 

Brent posts biggest monthly decline since March 2020 as traders monitor U.S.-Iran talks​

Oil prices closed out a month marked by significant declines on Tuesday, as energy market traders closely monitored the potential for fresh talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar.

Brent crude futures for August delivery, the international benchmark, ticked lower to $72.92 per barrel. The contract dropped roughly 21% in June, its largest monthly decline since March 2020.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery dropped 1.8% to $69.50. The U.S. oil market standard dropped more than 20% in June, its worst monthly performance since late 2021.

Energy analysts say they have been surprised by the pace of the sell-off in the oil market, noting that it has been far more aggressive than most had expected.

“The price action in recent weeks reflects a market that is treating this temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran as a permanent deal. This is clearly not the case, and as we have seen over the last four months, the situation can change very quickly,” strategists at ING said in a research note published Monday.

www.cnbc.com

Brent posts biggest monthly decline since March 2020 as traders monitor U.S.-Iran talks

The moves come as oil traders monitor the prospect for U.S.-Iran talks in Doha on Tuesday.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
King Samson said:

Brent posts biggest monthly decline since March 2020 as traders monitor U.S.-Iran talks​

Oil prices closed out a month marked by significant declines on Tuesday, as energy market traders closely monitored the potential for fresh talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar.

Brent crude futures for August delivery, the international benchmark, ticked lower to $72.92 per barrel. The contract dropped roughly 21% in June, its largest monthly decline since March 2020.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery dropped 1.8% to $69.50. The U.S. oil market standard dropped more than 20% in June, its worst monthly performance since late 2021.

Energy analysts say they have been surprised by the pace of the sell-off in the oil market, noting that it has been far more aggressive than most had expected.

“The price action in recent weeks reflects a market that is treating this temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran as a permanent deal. This is clearly not the case, and as we have seen over the last four months, the situation can change very quickly,” strategists at ING said in a research note published Monday.

www.cnbc.com

Brent posts biggest monthly decline since March 2020 as traders monitor U.S.-Iran talks

The moves come as oil traders monitor the prospect for U.S.-Iran talks in Doha on Tuesday.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
Main effects

Oil and fuel prices Have rise quickly because a large share of global crude and LNG normally transits the strait, and there is little including rerouting capacity
Shipping gets more expensive as vessels take longer routes, fuel use rises, and containers and ships spend more time in transit.
Manufacturing costs increase because energy is an input for plastics, aluminum, chemicals, and fertilizer, so inflation shows up with a delay rather than all at once
Food prices willrise later if fertilizer costs remain elevated and crop yields fall, with impacts often appearing months after the disruption
The most exposed countries are energy importers in Asia and the Global South, while the U.S. has some buffering by way of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and domestic production
are the real economic consequences for. CONUS.

NOTE1: Regular gas here in my neck of the woods is $4.19 a gallon...not cheap by any means.
European petrol prices are SKY HIGH...by the way.

Note2; The real results of this war have yet to be reckoned with.....

Note3: shale production is not profitable until oil hits 80 or 90 bucks a barrel

Note4: oil futures and pm futures can be manipulated...the wall street smoke and mirrors artists CAN MAKE IT HAPPEN, as the bag holders cry in their collective beers.!
 
doctor_fungcool said:
Oil and fuel prices Have rise quickly because a large share of global crude and LNG normally transits the strait, and there is little including rerouting capacity
Click to expand...
But oil prices have come way back down, since the conflict started the beginning of March, and are just about at pre-conflict levels:

1782876641780.png

doctor_fungcool said:
NOTE1: Regular gas here in my neck of the woods is $4.19 a gallon...not cheap by any means.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but that's come down too, from where it was. Now, go compare that gallon of gas cost to 2- 1.5 liter bottles of water (100 oz total) at 7-11 at $2.89 per bottle, so $5.78 for 100 oz of water. Crazy, right and the gas is actually cheaper?
 

"We've Burned Through All Buffers": Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes​

BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, JUL 18, 2026 - 06:05 PM

Brent crude futures jumped a little more than 4% to nearly $88 a barrel, putting the crude oil benchmark on track for its biggest weekly gain since April. That move followed an Axios report that said the Trump administration had notified Israel it was deploying additional aerial assets to the region, signaling the US military could expand strikes on Iran as soon as this weekend.



Financial Times spoke with energy traders at the end of the week who warned that slowing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a more severe supply crunch than the first round of the US-Iran war because emergency reserves and stockpiles around the world that cushioned the earlier disruption have been mostly depleted.
"We've burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything," said one trader. "All of that's now gone.
Related:


Bloomberg noted:
Fuel markets strengthened again, with the ICE gasoil crack closing at the highest on record and the Nymex heating oil crack the strongest since March. More narrow Brent put spreads around the low $70s traded in sizable numbers.
Earlier today, the International Energy Agency revealed that member countries released three-quarters of the planned 400 million-barrel emergency reserves announced in March.

Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, pointed out that heading into the US-Iran war, the global oil market had around 400 million barrels of excess inventories, not including strategic reserves controlled by governments.
"Now we have close to nothing ... and market complacency around Hormuz flows is being severely tested," Sen warned.

UBS analyst Henri Patricot wrote in the daily "Hormuz tracker" note that further Hormuz escalation has occurred, Gulf tanker crossings remain limited, and there is a sharp pullback in Gulf loadings:
Further escalation

The conflict in the Middle East is escalating further as Iran reportedly targeted power plants and desalinisation plants in Kuwait. Previous strikes had focused on US military targets. These followed US strikes on bridges and an airport in Iran.
Limited Gulf tanker crossings

Increased attacks continue to weigh heavily on flows via Hormuz. The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) show that oil and gas tanker crossings fell to one, with only one product tanker entering the Gulf (Figure 1).



July-to-date crossings have averaged 10, down from the mid-to-high teens recorded in late June and early July, and remain well below the c.50 level seen in February. Oil on water in the Gulf is ticking up again, up ~5Mb in recent days (Figure 10).



The absence of outbound oil and gas flows takes the July average down to 5.4Mboe/d, compared with 3.7Mboe/d in June and 1.3Mboe/d in May (Figure 4).



Capacity entering the Gulf fell to 0.7Mboe/d and has averaged 5.2Mboe/d month to date (Figure 5).


Meanwhile, flows via the Bab al Mandeb Strait have not been disrupted so far and increased further to 9.7Mb/d yesterday, above the July-to-date average of 6.7Mb/d.


A sharp pullback in Gulf loading
Gulf crude loadings ex-Iran fell sharply to 1.0Mb/d yesterday from 6.0Mb/d on Wednesday, with the past-week average at 3.2Mb/d vs 5.1Mb/d in July and 3.4Mb/d in June. Iranian loadings rose to 5.0Mb/d yesterday, lifting the July average to 1.5Mb/d, still below the typical 1.7-1.8Mb/d range, but above June's 0.8Mb/d (Figure 9).


Crude loadings at ports outside the Strait (Yanbu in Saudi Arabia and Fujairah in the UAE) eased following a sharp rebound, falling to 3.6Mb/d yesterday below the July-to-date average of 5.9Mb/d and June's 6.9Mb/d. Yanbu declined to 2.7Mb/d, below the month-to-date level of 4.2Mb/d and June's 4.8Mb/d. Product loadings inside the Gulf remain close to May-June levels (Figure 15).



The normalization pathway of tanker flows appears to have been disrupted as the US and Iran become locked in an escalation spiral, with neither side willing to back down. Any sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has now been postponed.



With or without Tehran's cooperation, US-allied Gulf countries are in the beginning innings of what we've described as a "great energy rewiring" to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint.


Latest:
"Ultimately, the market was pricing an optimistic flow trajectory that now is clearly not on the table, at least . . . not until we get another round of diplomacy," Natixis Bank analyst Joel Hancock wrote in a note.

"We've Burned Through All Buffers": Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
OMG... LOOK AT THAT.... Oil is over $150 a barrel... we're all going to starve, and inflation will be off the charts and the Dollar is going to collapse!!!!

:hof: :hof:

1784428647551.png


Oh wait... False alarm... they're not....
 
I don't know who President Trump listened to that advised him that Iran was going to be a proverbial cakewalk like Venezuela was but they should be stood up against the wall....even if it was Kushner or Bibi. The last thing a bankrupt empire needs to do is pick yet another fight and the goalposts keep moving.

It will be over in a few days, a few more weeks and how many times have we heard that Iran is desperate for a deal? I fear a false flag now more than ever with both the tank bottoms and mid-terms coming soon. People as a whole are definitely against this war and even more so as the economic pain is bound to increase.
 
King Samson said:
OMG... LOOK AT THAT.... Oil is over $150 a barrel... we're all going to starve, and inflation will be off the charts and the Dollar is going to collapse!!!!

:hof: :hof:

View attachment 612365


Oh wait... False alarm... they're not....
Click to expand...


Paper oil like paper gold. What happens when the oil is no longer there or when the realization of the 'futures' look pretty bleak? When the strategic reserves are empty we survive on what we produce or what we can buy like everyone else and when there is no more oil reserves to dump into the market we get real price discovery.
 
Hfcomms said:
Paper oil like paper gold. What happens when the oil is no longer there or when the realization of the 'futures' look pretty bleak? When the strategic reserves are empty we survive on what we produce or what we can buy like everyone else and when there is no more oil reserves to dump into the market we get real price discovery.
Click to expand...
I thought you Panicans said the world was going to end, and we would go into a Depression, Oil would jump over $200 a barrel, gas would be over $6 a gallon, Inflation was going to Explode, shortages of fertilizer and all types of oil products, etc., because of the stoppage of shipping in the Strait, multiple months ago..

So.....????

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