ECON FUNG FYI: Dow Selloff as We Speak... (7/23/26)

bracketquant said:
Silver wasn't about $40 within a year, prior to going to about $62.50+?
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Here's some more numbers for you, over a 10 year period.

Silver went from $19 to it's current $62, approx. a 3X multiplier.

The DOW went from around 17K to it's current 54K, approx. a 3X multiplier.

Another question I've asked, without any replies here is, how many millionaires have been made through gold and silver investments. I haven't found any articles to support a number, even asking A.I., which should know, returns this answer:

Millionaires and Gold Investments​

Determining the exact number of millionaires created specifically through gold and silver investments is challenging. However, gold has long been a favored asset among the wealthy for its role in wealth preservation and diversification.

Conclusion​

While specific statistics on millionaires made through gold investments are not readily available, the historical significance of gold as a wealth-preserving asset is well-documented. Many wealthy individuals continue to invest in gold as part of their financial strategy.
Moneywise isabullion.com

Now, I asked A.I. how many millionaires have been made with stock market investments. Here's what comes back:

Global Millionaire Growth in 2025​

Approximately 2 million new millionaires were created globally in 2025, largely due to stock market gains. The U.S. alone accounted for about 736,000 of these new millionaires.
CNBC Yahoo

Total New Millionaires​

In 2025, approximately 2 million new millionaires were created worldwide, primarily driven by stock market gains.

The total population of global millionaires reached 25.3 million, marking a 7.9% increase from the previous year.

Contribution by the United States​

The United States was a significant contributor to this growth, adding about 736,000 new millionaires. This increase reflects the strong performance of the stock market, particularly in technology sectors.

The surge in stock market values, especially in technology and AI sectors, played a crucial role in this wealth creation, marking the largest annual increase in millionaires in five years.
CNBC Yahoo
 
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A.I. is sucking up a lot of ‘investment’ money just like the dot coms were sucking up the money pre Y2K. When the market busted most of the .coms disappeared except for the big ones and I think it will be this way for A.I. as well. Pure speculation and I don’t think any of them are making money yet.

I know end users are the small fry but every engine I’ve used wants me to upgrade to paid and they only give you a few go rounds until they say they are too busy and want you to pay. I have the apps for Chat.gpt, Deep Seek and Claude and one one says they are too busy I go to the next one, etc.
 
King Samson said:
So, why are you so fixated on just the growth over a 6 month period, an abnormal spike, that crashed back down? Why not zoom out, over a longer timeline, to tell us what has performed better?


View attachment 615033

It all depends on where you jump on the ride, and get back off.
Click to expand...
Many (most?) don't even know which ride they are on.

As for the DJIA, many don't know, from the start of your above chart, that DuPont, GE, Dow DuPont, United Technologies, Exxon Mobll, Pfizer, Raytheon, Walgreens, Intel, Dow Inc and Verizon were all remove from the DOW, due to low performance.

The DJIA is essentially a chart of deception, constantly changing by deleting under-performing companies and adding high performing ones. Because of that, over a long course of time, it is likely impossible for the DJIA to go down.

I fully understand why someone like yourself uses such a chart. ;)
 
King Samson said:
Here's some more numbers for you, over a 10 year period.

Silver went from $19 to it's current $62, approx. a 3X multiplier.

The DOW went from around 17K to it's current 54K, approx. a 3X multiplier.

Another question I've asked, without any replies here is, how many millionaires have been made through gold and silver investments. I haven't found any articles to support a number, even asking A.I., which should know, returns this answer:

Millionaires and Gold Investments​

Determining the exact number of millionaires created specifically through gold and silver investments is challenging. However, gold has long been a favored asset among the wealthy for its role in wealth preservation and diversification.

Conclusion​

While specific statistics on millionaires made through gold investments are not readily available, the historical significance of gold as a wealth-preserving asset is well-documented. Many wealthy individuals continue to invest in gold as part of their financial strategy.
Moneywise isabullion.com

Now, I asked A.I. how many millionaires have been made with stock market investments. Here's what comes back:

Global Millionaire Growth in 2025​

Approximately 2 million new millionaires were created globally in 2025, largely due to stock market gains. The U.S. alone accounted for about 736,000 of these new millionaires.
CNBC Yahoo

Total New Millionaires​

In 2025, approximately 2 million new millionaires were created worldwide, primarily driven by stock market gains.

The total population of global millionaires reached 25.3 million, marking a 7.9% increase from the previous year.

Contribution by the United States​

The United States was a significant contributor to this growth, adding about 736,000 new millionaires. This increase reflects the strong performance of the stock market, particularly in technology sectors.

The surge in stock market values, especially in technology and AI sectors, played a crucial role in this wealth creation, marking the largest annual increase in millionaires in five years.
CNBC Yahoo
Click to expand...
Sorry, but the DOW doesn't have the same components as a decade ago.
 
King Samson said:
That was from yesterday. I posted today's number this morning above at 10:46 AM, at 54,666. Why did you ignore that?
Click to expand...
I didn't ignore it, I just didn't see it. If I had seen it, I wouldn't have ignored it, for the following reason...

Like your posting of the higher DOW makes a BIG difference. Silver was still up about 55%. And the DOW, using your new data vs your older data moves up from about 27.5% to 28.5 %, with silver still about double the return of the DOW.

Face it, you're simply making excuses (my not having "accurate" data, off by about 1%!) in not answering my questions, because it's irrefutable that silver has performed much better over that one year time line.
 
I reiterate...watch the 10 yr. bond...once it hits 5%...stocks will crater. Presently at 4.672%
Look at this house analogy. The stock market is the outer shell. The bond market is the framework and foundation.

Grok

The 10-year Treasury yield rises when investors demand higher compensation for holding long-term U.S. government debt—typically because they expect stronger growth, higher inflation, more debt issuance, or greater risk. L
Core drivers that push the 10-year yield up
Stronger growth expectations: When the economy looks robust (solid GDP, jobs, consumer spending), investors anticipate fewer Fed rate cuts or even hikes, so they require higher yields on long-term bonds.
Higher inflation expectations: If markets expect inflation to run hotter, they demand a higher nominal yield to preserve real (inflation-adjusted) returns. �
Rising term/risk premium: Even if expected inflation and short-term rates are stable, uncertainty about the future (fiscal path, supply shocks, policy) can raise the “term premium” baked into long-term yields.
More Treasury supply (bigger deficits): Large deficits mean more bond auctions. If demand doesn’t keep up—especially from big buyers like foreign central banks—the Treasury may have to offer higher yields to clear the market.

Note1: bigger deficits equals higher rates.
Note2: time is not non our side.
 
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1786040171358.png
more from GROK
The modern artificial intelligence (AI) boom and the late 1990s dot-com bubble both share massive speculative capital inflows and high expectations of a technological paradigm shift. However, today's AI market is anchored by mega-cap tech companies with immense cash flows and concrete infrastructure demand, contrasting with the unproven, pre-revenue startups of the dot-com era. [1, 2]
Key Similarities
    • Exuberance and FOMO: Both eras feature intense retail and institutional hype, with investors driving up valuations based on a transformative future. [1, 2]
    • Infrastructure Buildout: Just as telecom companies over-laid fiber-optic cables in the late '90s, today's firms are spending heavily on data centers, energy grids, and advanced semiconductors. [1, 2]
    • High Concentration Risk: Market gains are heavily concentrated in a small group of market-leading hardware and software providers. [1]
Key Differences
    • Corporate Profitability: At the peak of the dot-com bubble, the vast majority of internet companies were completely unprofitable. Today's primary AI architects (such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and NVIDIA) are highly profitable giants backed by real earnings. [1, 2]
    • Valuation Multiples: Nasdaq valuations in March 2000 reached a staggering forward P/E of roughly 60x. While contemporary valuations for AI frontrunners are elevated, their price-to-earnings ratios are comparatively disciplined relative to their actual net income growth. [1, 2]
    • Funding and Speculation: The dot-com crash was heavily accelerated by a wave of speculative, pre-revenue IPOs. The AI buildout is largely funded through the balance sheets of well-capitalized hyperscalers rather than public market speculative froth for tiny upstarts. [1, 2, 3]
A detailed breakdown of how today's infrastructure spending measures up against historical market manias:
1786040171171.png
57s
AI vs the Dot-Com Bubble: Are We Repeating History?
5 days ago
YouTube · HTML All The Things
If you'd like, I can dive deeper into:
  • Specific valuation metrics (P/E and P/S ratios) of key AI stocks vs. 2000 leaders
  • The energy and infrastructure bottlenecks facing modern AI data centers
  • Potential catalysts that could trigger an AI market correction
AI versus the Dotcom Bubble: 8 reasons the AI wave is different
Oct 16, 2025 — AI versus the Dotcom Bubble: 8 reasons the AI wave is different * AI represents a foundational shift in technology. It impacts every layer of the tech stack and...
Janus Henderson Investors
AI Bubble vs. Dot-com Bubble: A Data-Driven Comparison
Oct 21, 2025 — Key findings include: * Valuation multiples for major indices and companies were markedly higher in 2000 than today. For example, the forward price/earnings (P/
IntuitionLabs
Is AI a Bubble? The Dot-Com Bubble vs. Today's AI Revolution
Oct 15, 2025 — Nick Frasse. ... AI's growth is unlike the dot-com bubble, driven by profitable firms reinvesting in real infrastructure. Semiconductor innovation and power exp...
VanEck
AI bubble - Wikipedia
The AI bubble is a concept that asserts there is a stock market bubble growing since 2025 amid the AI boom, a period of rapid increase in investment in artifici...
Wikipedia
Are we in an AI bubble?
Nov 21, 2025 — History offers a cautionary tale: in the late 1990s for instance, telecom firms spent hundreds of billions on fiber-optic networks, betting on explosive interne...
Invesco
Personal Finance: Artificial intelligence — revolution or bubble?
Nov 8, 2025 — The AI buildout requires massive investment in infrastructure that is swelling the balance sheets of these giants with tangible assets. This is especially true ...
Chattanooga Times Free Press
The AI Boom: Bubble or Bonanza? | AB
Oct 22, 2025 — This initial capex phase of the AI infrastructure boom was largely funded by hyperscalers with strong cash flows and balance sheets capable of supporting massiv...
AllianceBernstein
AI responses may include mistakes. For financial advice, consult a professional. Learn more
 
What good is Ai without juice what a joke;-) A chip does nothing until you plug it in. USA forgot that part. For twenty years US electricity generation barely moved. The chart is a flat line from 2000 to today, parked around 4,300 TWh. China spent those same twenty years building. It passed the US in 2011 and never looked back. In 2024 it generated over 10,000 TWh. More than double America, and the gap is still widening. Now the AI trade meets the wall. The chips stopped being the bottleneck. TSMC doubled its packaging capacity, GPUs ship in volume, and a finished data center can sit half empty waiting on power. In Northern Virginia and Phoenix, the wait to connect a large load to the grid runs four to seven years. Bloomberg, citing Sightline Climate, May 2026. Here's the part nobody puts on the slide. The transformers and switchgear that connect those data centers depend on components made in China. So the country racing to power AI buys the parts from the country that already has twice the power.


Intel’s fair value is $30. AMD’s fair value is $200. Micron’s fair value is $250. SanDisk’s fair value is $150. China has burst the AI bubble. The entire future growth narrative has collapsed. China is offering the same AI service at 80 times lower cost. Understand this now. The game is over;-)
 
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I posted this in the other DOW thread.

It isn't even down a full percentage point despite some strong downward pressure including:
the tech sell off
higher than expected job numbers (I know, it's counterintuitive)
climbing interest rates

The tech sell off was harder on the S&P and the Nasdaq. I still wouldn't call it a disaster by any measurement, but it will make people reevaluate their "funds" investments if they are too heavy in tech stocks.

CORRECTION:

S&P could break even as it has gained back some of today's losses.
Nasdaq will be down less than a quarter of a point for the day unless there is a late day sell-off which is always possible
 
www.cnbc.com

US Markets

Up to date market data and stock market news is available online. View US market headlines and market charts. Get the latest economy news, markets in our Market Overview.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Market close:

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
US 10-YR4.664+0.047+1.018
EUR/USD1.152-0.003-0.268
*GOLD4,307.7+2.5+0.06
*OIL77.64+2.42+3.22
NASDAQ26,348.352-15.087-0.06
S&P 5007,709.96-13.59-0.18
DJIA53,885.1-464.02-0.85
VIX15.11-0.7-4.43

Stock Indexes​

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
*NYSE24,458.38-55.44-0.23
UTIL1,097.4-3.61-0.33
*RUSS 2K3,003.335-15.853-0.53
TRAN21,424.1-153.23-0.71
NASDAQ 10029,373.334-114.457-0.39


Commodities​

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
*SOYBEAN1,177.5+2.75+0.23
*WHEAT630.5-11.75-1.83
*SILVER62.095-0.193-0.31
*CORN461.25+1.25+0.27
*NAT GAS2.638-0.05-1.86
*RBOB GAS2.946+0.107+3.76
*ULSD HO3.91+0.114+3.01
*COPPER6.731+0.004+0.05

Treasurys​

SYMBOLYIELDCHANGE
US 1-MO3.697+0.017
US 3-MO3.828+0.01
US 6-MO3.954+0.013
US 1-YR4.061+0.045
US 2-YR4.243+0.064
US 10-YR4.664+0.047
US 30-YR5.206+0.033

Currencies​

SYMBOLPRICECHANGE%CHANGE
USD/CHF0.812+0.005+0.669
AUD/USD0.703-0.003-0.354
USD/CAD1.402+0.001+0.05
USD/SEK9.514+0.029+0.31
USD/JPY158.44+0.7+0.44
EUR/USD1.152-0.003-0.26
GBP/USD1.345-0.002-0.111
ICE US Dollar Index99.961+0.285+0.29
 
Just a note:
The Federal Reserve has been lending banks around 2 1/2 trillion dollars on a constant basis for quite a while. I hadn't looked for some time and checked it a few days ago. on 7-31 the amount was almost 3 1/2 trillion.
 
Nahal81 said:
Because that's all he does in the investment thread is troll
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We aren't going to start this stuff. Period. I don't care who it is and/or who it is against. You've been successful with your investment plan. KS has been successful with his. Facts are not trolling, they simply are whether someone wants them to be true or not. Opinion is what it is as well. So is speculation/predictions. The day this forum becomes an echo chamber is the day it dies.
 
Nahal81 said:
Because that's all he does in the investment thread is troll
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You could try and post some economic data, charts or information, or add more updates to a thread, that can benefit the forum. Or, just call people trolls, because you have nothing to add.
 
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Speaking of trolling....

Here you are, Samson, just from this one thread (supposedly a thread about the DOW).

King Samson said:
How's that Gold and Silver rally going right now?
Click to expand...

King Samson said:
Yeah, it's better...

BTW, how's that growth on your Silver doing this year? Gaining any wealth/money since January?
Click to expand...

King Samson said:
You mean like Silver, in December and January?

You should post that same article in the Silver thread. It would be more accurate there.
Click to expand...

King Samson said:
Because the numbers you posted weren't accurate. You can try again, if you like.
Click to expand...

King Samson said:
We're talking about investment growth, not components of the DOW.

But nice try at deflecting and diversion.
Click to expand...

You're a troll, dude. Your own words say so.
 
King Samson said:
So, posting a response/question to a previous post a member, made is trolling? Really?

You do know this is a discussion forum, right?
Click to expand...

You don't see it? You honestly perceive your posts quoted above as simply responses to discussions? On a thread about the DOW?

As to your sarcastic final question, I've been a member here since 2003. I personally have no desire to promote an agenda. I just show up from time to time and speak the truth as I see it.

Go ahead. I'll give you the last word, and we can then get back to the DOW. That's what this thread is about, right?
 
coalcracker said:
I personally have no desire to promote an agenda. I just show up from time to time and speak the truth as I see it.
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LOL... But you have a problem with OTHER people speaking the truth, as THEY see it.

Got it!

coalcracker said:
and we can then get back to the DOW. That's what this thread is about, right?
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Yep, until you responded with all your reposts..

Oh yeah, the DOW is up +115 as I type this, are you making money?
 
It's not the way YOU see it, King Samson, it's the WAY you say it. You come across as arrogant and condescending, especially about precious metals the stock market and investing. You consistently are getting a dig in about silver in various threads.

We get it, you have done well in the stock market. You are well off, great. You make some good points on a lot of things and issues, we're facing as a nation. It's just that subtle snarkiness and arrogance that gets old.
 
coalcracker said:
You don't see it? You honestly perceive your posts quoted above as simply responses to discussions? On a thread about the DOW?

As to your sarcastic final question, I've been a member here since 2003. I personally have no desire to promote an agenda. I just show up from time to time and speak the truth as I see it.

Go ahead. I'll give you the last word, and we can then get back to the DOW. That's what this thread is about, right?
Click to expand...
Hint to make you happier...you will never fix a person who is enamored by their own perceived superiority on an issue. Just ignore them.
 
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