ECON FUNG FYI: Dow Selloff as We Speak... (7/23/26)

I have a stack of cards and use them for everything. We pay them off when the bill comes in, and we owe nothing to anyone.

We just took a vacation and parked some savings into physical hardware and other inflation hedges.

For the first time in a couple of years, I'm going to roll over a credit card onto another credit card Cash advance with a 4% fee and 0% interest for 15 months.

I will pay off the vacation in a few months, but I am not going to deplete my emergency fund or regular savings just to pay off a credit card and get back to not owing any money.
I get that, but 50 years ago not only was I much younger, I was also much dumber. Just learning from past dumb practices, should make one smarter. But it's like a former alcoholic with 40 years sober under their belt going into a bar. Are you going to be able to drink just one beer?
 
I have a stack of cards and use them for everything. We pay them off when the bill comes in, and we owe nothing to anyone.

We just took a vacation and parked some savings into physical hardware and other inflation hedges.

For the first time in a couple of years, I'm going to roll over a credit card onto another credit card Cash advance with a 4% fee and 0% interest for 15 months.

I will pay off the vacation in a few months, but I am not going to deplete my emergency fund or regular savings just to pay off a credit card and get back to not owing any money.

Cards can serve you if you are able to master them but they can very quickly turn you into a slave if you don’t. I recently made a large purchase of additional solar equipment and put that on a card. I could of paid cash but that would of left me pretty illiquid for the unexpected. That card will be paid off August 1st. I’m at the point where it is anathema to carry a balance past 30 days. I feel a lot better when I don’t.
 
I get that, but 50 years ago not only was I much younger, I was also much dumber. Just learning from past dumb practices, should make one smarter. But it's like a former alcoholic with 40 years sober under their belt going into a bar. Are you going to be able to drink just one beer?
Well, my financial decisions are not affected by any physical addiction. So, yeah, one CC rollover will be an easy step.

For a few years, I used credit card rollovers as an inflation hedge and it worked quite well. We saved and paid off cars and the house and cranked our FICO score up to 825-840.

Now IDGAF about the FICO score. I'm more interested in the price of silver dropping so I can park more wealth into Precious Metals.
 
Like knowing when to apply the second amendment, before they even had one ?

Gnarly


:popcorn3:

History doesn't reflect that. And that kind of inflammatory statement doesn't really move anything forward in this thread. It sounds like a deflection in all honesty. The 2A stands on its own and has nothing to do with whether the DOW rises or falls.

We'll have to see what the DOW does this week.
 
Futures way up meaning a rally could ensue.
30 yr. Treasury

  • Previous Close5.16
  • Open5.13
  • Volume0
  • Day's Range5.12 - 5.13
  • 52 Week Range4.53 - 5.20
  • Avg. Volume0
I believe that the 10 year is around 4.6 percent.
 
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On Friday, July 24, 2026, gold futures closed near $4,057 per ounce. The New York Fed Staff Nowcast estimated Q2 2026 GDP growth at 2.8%. Markets traded under cautious conditions ahead of upcoming central bank decisions, influenced by new global trade tariffs and rising energy costs.
 
Today’s market rally brought to you by hopes for cessation of the war so the Strait(s) can reopen again.

Wash…..rinse…..and repeat.

Thank you for paying attention to this matter. :jstr:

Weekend at Bernie’s continues.
 
On Friday, July 24, 2026, gold futures closed near $4,057 per ounce. The New York Fed Staff Nowcast estimated Q2 2026 GDP growth at 2.8%. Markets traded under cautious conditions ahead of upcoming central bank decisions, influenced by new global trade tariffs and rising energy costs.

Today’s market rally brought to you by hopes for cessation of the war so the Strait(s) can reopen again.

Wash…..rinse…..and repeat.
How's that Gold and Silver rally going right now?
 
Just coming here to ask that question, versus the OP of this thread.

The DOW's up +420 right now, is that the opposite of a sell-off and a crash, like the OP was predicting?

Asking for a friend...
If for any reason the Dow does not hold onto its gains...be careful.
 
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We just gotta keep the faith and keep on contributing into our funds, markets, securities, 401k, IRAs, etc....every single payday.

:D
That’s what the system is currently designed for. When enough people stop contributing the market may destabilize to the point of a true crash. It’s just what would have been considered a crash amount over the last 5 to 10 years or more no longer qualifies as crash status simply because of the percentage of the market. 500 or more points used to be panicking. Now it’s barely one percent.
 
Man, this is better than a ride at Six Flags, for the entertainment value:

1785443252264.png

This is what happens when you give the Keys to the Castle, to the Algorithms....

It's like the kids having a crazy house parties, when you're away for the week.
 
That's an option, but then you miss out on these returns:

View attachment 614106

Yeah. We had several investments make decent "normal" returns but they aren't beating the pack, or even getting near the top. We've had a spectacularly conservative year this year. Had we been willing to risk more our returns would have been quite a bit higher. We've just had too much going on to sit on things and watch them so we've had "normal-ish" returns. In hindsight we should have done more but that would have taken away the time and brainpower we needed for other things going on.

You win some, you lose some, and then some just float up without flying up and feel like a loss.
 
Yeah. We had several investments make decent "normal" returns but they aren't beating the pack, or even getting near the top. We've had a spectacularly conservative year this year. Had we been willing to risk more our returns would have been quite a bit higher.
It's been good for us too, and I had moved more conservative on a lot, in anticipation of the reverse on the Business Cycle, which still hasn't collapsed, and years over due. I was putting a lot of time in, pre-retirement, and trying to maximize returns, and running all types of planners, to see how things could pan out.

Over the last handful of years, I moved to areas that I know do OK during good times, and also during bad times. I'm not searching for yield or return anymore, just wanna protect the principle from being vaporized. Yet, much of it is still growing, so I'll take it.

We've just had too much going on to sit on things and watch them so we've had "normal-ish" returns. In hindsight we should have done more but that would have taken away the time and brainpower we needed for other things going on.
I hear you. I didn't want to have to constantly monitor the accounts, and constantly watch all the funds, so I moved to try and get as much as possible on cruise control, so we could instead, go out and play and spend in retirement.

So far, when I do our quarterly balance sheet, we're staying ahead of the curve, even though most months we blow the budget... and miss it... LOL.. wifey gets on me each month when that happens (regularly) and threatens to block my Amazon and RV accounts... LOL..

Oh, and dogs... What I've spent on dogs and "dog repairs" the past few years, would have paid for the new truck. :rdog:

Yet, lately, she's been on me to go buy a new truck..... man... wives.... :eye:
 
It's been good for us too, and I had moved more conservative on a lot, in anticipation of the reverse on the Business Cycle, which still hasn't collapsed, and years over due. I was putting a lot of time in, pre-retirement, and trying to maximize returns, and running all types of planners, to see how things could pan out.

Over the last handful of years, I moved to areas that I know do OK during good times, and also during bad times. I'm not searching for yield or return anymore, just wanna protect the principle from being vaporized. Yet, much of it is still growing, so I'll take it.


I hear you. I didn't want to have to constantly monitor the accounts, and constantly watch all the funds, so I moved to try and get as much as possible on cruise control, so we could instead, go out and play and spend in retirement.

So far, when I do our quarterly balance sheet, we're staying ahead of the curve, even though most months we blow the budget... and miss it... LOL.. wifey gets on me each month when that happens (regularly) and threatens to block my Amazon and RV accounts... LOL..

Oh, and dogs... What I've spent on dogs and "dog repairs" the past few years, would have paid for the new truck. :rdog:

Yet, lately, she's been on me to go buy a new truck..... man... wives.... :eye:

Always keep your dogs in good repair. Our dogs are as much a part of our household defense as the Mossberg 590 by the bed. It took forever and a day to teach the dogs how to use that Mossberg...

Best
Doc
 
Always keep your dogs in good repair.
Absolutely, the sky is the limit when it comes to spending on their medical care. But damn, the last two, Sniper and Samson, had the goal to drain off as much of the retirement funds as they could..

Our dogs are as much a part of our household defense as the Mossberg 590 by the bed.
I trained Sniper in personal defense, and he was always ready to step up and do his part. Had a tougher time with Samson, instead of attacking and biting the bad guys, he decided it was more fun to attack us. That, unfortunately, got him a one way ticket out of here.

It took forever and a day to teach the dogs how to use that Mossberg...
I can see how tough that was. Sniper's preference was a 9mm, I guess it fit his paw better... LOL...

vest2a.jpg
 
That's an option, but then you miss out on these returns:

View attachment 614106
One only gets those returns if they sell. +17% this year can easily be -25% next year. The powers that be in the US want the stock market to be the only game in town. Government loves it because it is more controllable. Power capitalist love it because it is more fixable and easier to manage. Neither of those two groups want any sort of gold or silver standard. That standard would be much harder to control, fix, and manage. Given all that, the stock market will always be propped up, bailed out, etc. before anything else. I don't know if we will always see double digit returns year after year, but it will likely always beat inflation. If the DSA keeps making inroads though, all bets are off.

So for now, the game is Wall Street. Since interest rates are not likely dropping anytime soon, paying off debt at 5-7% interest early in the term is also something to look into.

I'm thinking of taking my minimal profits for the last year. Right now my all market fund is similar to the S&P 500 which is top heavy on seven companies, the "Mag 7". I'm looking at investment options that are still in the market, but somewhat limit the exposure of the Mag 7. I like the RSP ETF as it is an S&P 500 equal weight. Some similar ETF options are:
QEW - QQQ index equal weight
GSEW - U.S. Large Cap equal weight
TOPC - S&P 500 with 3% holding cap (Not a strict 3% though, as Apple is 3.35, Microsoft 3.32, and Broadcom 3.05%)
XOEF - S&P 500 minus the top 100 companies. Currently holding 403 companies
 
One only gets those returns if they sell. +17% this year can easily be -25% next year.
As it is with any investment, you only reap the reward, when you sell. It's also not a short term game, as you can get spanked, depending on where you jump on the ride and where you jump off. Just ask the dudes that bought silver in December and January, if they want to jump out now? Or, some others who jumped on the meme stocks, like Gamestop or AMC a few years ago...

That said, the long term average for the stock market is around +8% per year, so staying in, long term, pays off.

I don't know if we will always see double digit returns year after year, but it will likely always beat inflation.
I doubt it too, specially since most is so overvalued. I expect a decent correction before I see these double digit returns continue. I think A.I. will pop the bubble soon.

But like I said, long term, it definitely beats inflation.
 
30YT is a dot. So is the Yen's rapid appreciation vs. the dollar just prior to our intervention. There is a US/Japan announcement coming next week. I don't know what it all means but prepare for volatility!
 
As it is with any investment, you only reap the reward, when you sell. It's also not a short term game, as you can get spanked, depending on where you jump on the ride and where you jump off. Just ask the dudes that bought silver in December and January, if they want to jump out now? Or, some others who jumped on the meme stocks, like Gamestop or AMC a few years ago...

That said, the long term average for the stock market is around +8% per year, so staying in, long term, pays off.


I doubt it too, specially since most is so overvalued. I expect a decent correction before I see these double digit returns continue. I think A.I. will pop the bubble soon.

But like I said, long term, it definitely beats inflation.

The real returns come from compounded interest. It gets ridiculously complicated when you are trying to calculate the income from it when there are wild swings, but that usually is where the big bucks eventually come from.
 
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