ECON FUNG FYI: Dow Selloff as We Speak... (7/23/26)

Wanna know why they charge that? Because they know people will pay it.... Isn't Capitalism wonderful!

What would happen if people refused to pay that amount, and the lots sat empty?
Cough, cough........World Cup.....cough, cough. 30,000.00 seats, cough.

wake me when we are invaded by aliens
WAKE UP, Mexican gardeners are getting 600,000 home loans...wait....you meant......Big Grays....never mind, so back to sleep.
 
ANY ONE who tells you that Credit Costs have "Normalized" is straight up nutz. Credit Card interest rates are NORTH of 30%.
I had a couple of friends who "helped people" with "money problems" who would have whipped my ass if I considered accepting that kind of help at 30%+.
These guys figured that 8-10% was for friends of the House and 20% was for the average jamoke stupid enough to talk to them. They would have been embarrassed to offer terms that VISA etc are offering in the mail.
 
ANY ONE who tells you that Credit Costs have "Normalized" is straight up nutz. Credit Card interest rates are NORTH of 30%.
What are the FICO scores of those paying "north of 30%"? You might be surprised.

These guys figured that 8-10% was for friends of the House and 20% was for the average jamoke stupid enough to talk to them. They would have been embarrassed to offer terms that VISA etc are offering in the mail.

I just checked my primary Chase card for what rate they charge. I had no idea, as I never roll over a balance, so it doesn't matter to me.

It was 17%.
 
What are the FICO scores of those paying "north of 30%"? You might be surprised.



I just checked my primary Chase card for what rate they charge. I had no idea, as I never roll over a balance, so it doesn't matter to me.

It was 17%.
Early on in marriage, we maxed out a card. So I got a magnifying glass and read the small print.

It stated that paying the minimum 25.00 very month it will take 40 years to pay off the card. Rate then was in the 30% range.

Severe wake up call. And we were done with cards. Cut those things up, burned them, drove a stake through their heart and buried them face down. Wanted to use a silver bullet but thought we were going overboard. Been concerned ever since that we didn't have the discipline to use them like normal people.

I/we do still have a card in my wife's name mainly so she will have a credit rating to get small loans, if she needs one after I am gone. Her mother can't get a card with a 1000.00 max limit due to never having a card, or any credit of any kind in her name.

Got a notice a couple of months ago that if we didn't use the card by a certain date, they would cancel that card. So I used it to buy the stain for the house, when the bill came in, paid it off. Had the money in my pocket when I bought the stain. My hand was shaking when I pulled it out, and saying to myself, "Courage, Willow, courage."
 
I’ve got three cards and use them all every month paying them off every month as well. One card is for vehicle expenses, another one for internet, utilities and a couple of subscriptions and the third one for Amazon. Having a mix of credit and a score above 800 helps your insurance score and other things to get you lower prices.
 
I/we do still have a card in my wife's name mainly so she will have a credit rating to get small loans, if she needs one after I am gone. Her mother can't get a card with a 1000.00 max limit due to never having a card, or any credit of any kind in her name.
I primarily use the cards to keep the credit lines open, as you never know... We put at least $3k on them each month, for all types of stuff, insurances, groceries, utilities, gas, etc., but they get paid off by the end of the month. The plus to using them, is we get air miles or rewards, to trade in for gift cards, as a freebie.

One card is for vehicle expenses, another one for internet, utilities and a couple of subscriptions and the third one for Amazon. Having a mix of credit and a score above 800 helps your insurance score and other things to get you lower prices.
I do something similar. One card for Amazon, one card for the RV travel, in case it gets hacked (which it has), and one for the general stuff.

The key is keeping your utilization around 10% of your total credit lines. This helps keep your FICO score up. Mine runs in the 845 - 850 range.
 
This is where treasuries are for now.


Treasurys​

SYMBOLYIELDCHANGE
US 1-MO3.772-0.018
US 3-MO3.912+0.015
US 6-MO4.05-0.01
US 1-YR4.133-0.004
US 2-YR4.337-0.023
US 10-YR4.681-0.022
US 30-YR5.161-0.01

So the yields went down from yesterday. Yesterday the yields were up across the board, if I remember correctly.

The FED rates are as follows. Notice that even the 1 month is just above the range that they are aiming for. The FED meets on July 28/29. CPI is at 3.5% so inflation is slowing but it's not at the target of 2%. Gemini AI says that the rates are expected to hold steady. Fine. But again I worry about entities that have to roll over debt obligations. Regardless of what the FED does, do the bond markets respond cooperatively?



The federal funds target range is 3.50% to 3.75%, with an effective rate of 3.63%. It is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. [1, 2]

Current Target and Status
    • Effective Rate (EFFR): 3.63% volume-weighted median.
    • Next Meeting: Scheduled for July 28–29, 2026, where rates are widely expected to hold steady. [1, 2, 3]

Why It Matters




    • Benchmark Role: Influences prime rates, credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans.
    • Economic Control: Used by the Federal Reserve to manage inflation and support employment. [1, 2, 3]

    The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a monthly headline decrease of 0.4% and an annual inflation rate of 3.5% for June 2026. [1, 2]

    Key June 2026 CPI Details


      • Monthly change: Fell 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the largest one-month decrease since April 2020.
      • 12-month change: Rose 3.5% not seasonally adjusted over the year ending June 2026.
      • Core CPI: Unchanged on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis, and up 2.6% over the last 12 months.
      • Primary drivers: The monthly decline was largely driven by a sharp drop in energy and gasoline prices.
      • Next release: Scheduled for August 12, 2026, covering July 2026 data. [1, 2, 3]
 
What I find, both here and in the real world, with family and friends, those people who live by themselves, end up being controlled by the "voices in their heads", and they start separating from reality, and become led by these voices. No matter what subject we touch on, we can't break the "mindset", no matter what facts and evidence are presented. The "Voices" are just too strong, and leads these people to believe all types of unrealistic thoughts.

It's the same with the Doom crowd. The world is ALWAYS ending... Today, yesterday, last week, last month, last year, 5 years ago... it's even worse than the "broken clock" syndrome, because they're never right, where the clock is right twice a day...
The voice in my head says we need to end the not so federal, federal reserve. A lot of these boom/bust cycles will disappear. Interestingly, many around me also have this same voice. 1913 keeps calling. ;)
 
The voice in my head says we need to end the not so federal, federal reserve. A lot of these boom/bust cycles will disappear. Interestingly, many around me also have this same voice. 1913 keeps calling. ;)

But the fiat lovers will proclaim...

You just gotta be smart and invest your fiat into more fiat systems, and work harder!...all will be fine! Go with the flow, don't be a dumb Doomer, its holding your greatness back..

Puke...
 
The voice in my head says we need to end the not so federal, federal reserve. A lot of these boom/bust cycles will disappear. Interestingly, many around me also have this same voice. 1913 keeps calling. ;)

One of my favorite memes which was pretty stark in 2021….today even with the pullback since the late Jan smackdown these 5 quarters (minimum wage) the melt value is over $52. Anyone like a $52 minimum wage….would be back like the late 60’s where a single bread winner in the family could afford a three bedroom house, a car and be able to take their kids to the doctor without breaking the bank. And this is an excellent example that no…wages aren’t keeping up with inflation over time.

image_thumb.png
 
One of my favorite memes which was pretty stark in 2021….today even with the pullback since the late Jan smackdown these 5 quarters (minimum wage) the melt value is over $52.
So Silver quarters, is the ONLY thing that matters in the economy?

And this is an excellent example that no…wages aren’t keeping up with inflation over time.
Do I have to post my factual data, for the 263rd time, to show that's an incorrect statement?
 
One of my favorite memes which was pretty stark in 2021….today even with the pullback since the late Jan smackdown these 5 quarters (minimum wage) the melt value is over $52. Anyone like a $52 minimum wage….would be back like the late 60’s where a single bread winner in the family could afford a three bedroom house, a car and be able to take their kids to the doctor without breaking the bank. And this is an excellent example that no…wages aren’t keeping up with inflation over time.

View attachment 613259

Real coin, just like our founders wanted.
 
But the fiat lovers will proclaim...

You just gotta be smart and invest your fiat into more fiat systems, and work harder!...all will be fine! Go with the flow, don't be a dumb Doomer, its holding your greatness back..

Puke...

Everyone needs their own plan but in reality it didn’t matter when the coins were actually PMs and the paper was backed by more. The Great Depression was far from the first crash that the US experienced. Earliest one for this country occurred in 1785 and there were many after that.

History is a great teacher so long as you don’t ignore it. Use the system instead of the system using you and don’t get so damn locked in to thinking there is one perfect solution.

Panic of 1785
Copper Panic of 1789
Panic of 1792
Panic of 1796
etc etc etc

The boom/bust cycle actually shrunk dramatically in modern history after the laws were changed.

Now that said, I’m not saying that fiat is the only answer. Far from it. It is what you do with what you have that is that answer and it has to be an answer that fits your own personal needs. Getting into these childish and ignorant PMs vs fiat arguments fails to take into account all the history of both PMs and fiat. Fiat has been around a lot longer than most people want to know, PMs have witnessed more “panics” and recessions than fiat has. And through it all, it wasn’t money or the form it took, but what people did with it.
 
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Getting into these childish and ignorant PMs vs fiat arguments fails to take into account all the history of both PMs and fiat. Fiat has been around a lot longer than most people want to know, PMs have witnessed more “panics” and recessions than fiat has.
Bottom line:

100% of the population knows what fiat is, and uses it daily.

10% of the population knows what the value of PMs are, and has some.

The fact that these fiat/PM arguments even go on, just shows how far we've fallen regarding economic knowledge in this country.

And that's even before understanding the rise and fall of each in history.
 
Everyone needs their own plan but in reality it didn’t matter when the coins were actually PMs and the paper was backed by more. The Great Depression was far from the first crash that the US experienced. Earliest one for this country occurred in 1785 and there were many after that.

History is a great teacher so long as you don’t ignore it. Use the system instead of the system using you and don’t get so damn locked in to thinking there is one perfect solution.

Panic of 1785
Coper Panic of 1789
Panic of 1792
Panic of 1796
etc etc etc

The boom/bust cycle actually shrunk dramatically in modern history after the laws were changed.

Now that said, I’m not saying that fiat is the only answer. Far from it. It is what you do with what you have that is that answer and it has to be an answer that fits your own personal needs. Getting into these childish and ignorant PMs vs fiat arguments fails to take into account all the history of both PMs and fiat. Fiat has been around a lot longer than most people want to know, PMs have witnessed more “panics” and recessions than fiat has. And through it all, it wasn’t money or the form it took, but what people did with it.

There's a argument that says the corrections we had when coin was real we made it through it in a civilized way. Because the currency was real and inflation, regulations and taxation was low.

Where as if today the system collapsed and all of the government safety nets collapse at the sametime our economy or even our fiat currency should collapse, don't think we will go through it civilized.
 
Where as if today the system collapsed and all of the government safety nets collapse at the sametime our economy or even our fiat currency should collapse, don't think we will go through it civilized.
This narrative has been said, over and over, by the PM Bulls, but the true reality never gets discussed or war-gamed.

Do you really think, if your narrative happened today, there would be a market for your shiny coins, and you'd be able to exchange them for all the normal things you need everyday?
 
There's a argument that says the corrections we had when coin was real we made it through it in a civilized way. Because the currency was real and inflation, regulations and taxation was low.

Where as if today the system collapsed and all of the government safety nets collapse at the sametime our economy or even our fiat currency should collapse, don't think we will go through it civilized.

Not if you study the history.

First, some of the differences is cultural and historical manners.
However, just reading some of the behavior of the people involved … cold blooded murders, beatings, riots, tar and feathering, etc. … proves that not everyone was civilized in their reactions. Quite frankly some of the behaviors reminds me far too much of the 3rd World rationalizations and justifications we see in immigrant criminals we see in this modern age.

Population numbers and georgraphic centralization will also play a role today, but then again it played a role back then as well.
 
This narrative has been said, over and over, by the PM Bulls, but the true reality never gets discussed or war-gamed.

Do you really think, if your narrative happened today, there would be a market for your shiny coins, and you'd be able to exchange them for all the normal things you need everyday?

Hope theres no market at least, until law and order is established.

It's going to happen.

Copper is another PM, in that it used to be about 3 grams of copper to make a real penny.

Watch copper it's over $6 a pound.
 
Not if you study the history.

First, some of the differences is cultural and historical manners.
However, just reading some of the behavior of the people involved … cold blooded murders, beatings, riots, tar and feathering, etc. … proves that not everyone was civilized in their reactions. Quite frankly some of the behaviors reminds me far too much of the 3rd World rationalizations and justifications we see in immigrant criminals we see in this modern age.

Population numbers and georgraphic centralization will also play a role today, but then again it played a role back then as well.

Hopefully we also get public hangings, back. After a full court hearing and jury judgement, of course.

:D
 
I know of a couple guys still in prison for charging 25-35 percent interest in the 70s. Now some credit cards charge more than that. Wondering if they can get out just because they were forwarded thinking?
 
Everyone needs their own plan but in reality it didn’t matter when the coins were actually PMs and the paper was backed by more. The Great Depression was far from the first crash that the US experienced. Earliest one for this country occurred in 1785 and there were many after that.

History is a great teacher so long as you don’t ignore it. Use the system instead of the system using you and don’t get so damn locked in to thinking there is one perfect solution.

Panic of 1785
Copper Panic of 1789
Panic of 1792
Panic of 1796
etc etc etc

The boom/bust cycle actually shrunk dramatically in modern history after the laws were changed.

Now that said, I’m not saying that fiat is the only answer. Far from it. It is what you do with what you have that is that answer and it has to be an answer that fits your own personal needs. Getting into these childish and ignorant PMs vs fiat arguments fails to take into account all the history of both PMs and fiat. Fiat has been around a lot longer than most people want to know, PMs have witnessed more “panics” and recessions than fiat has. And through it all, it wasn’t money or the form it took, but what people did with it.
That's because the globalist bankers don't like competition, There were many attempts to hijack the banking system, many of them involved crashes (as mentioned above) that were then used as justification for the need of a not so federal, federal reserve. It wasn't like 1913 was their first try at setting such a system up.

Problem, Reaction, Solution.. Works every time.

Once they had it all locked down and had no issues killing off any who opposed, suddenly the ride got less bumpy. But, those who understand, also understand the pattern would have continued until they got what they wanted. Control of the countries banking system.

After 911, the mental midget bush who became the potato, announced the "axis of evil". Every country mentioned had one thing in common.. No central bank controlled by the same group that controls our not so federal, federal reserve. Only 2 left now, anyone wish to take a guess as to who they are?
 
I know of a couple guys still in prison for charging 25-35 percent interest in the 70s. Now some credit cards charge more than that. Wondering if they can get out just because they were forwarded thinking?
How many people did they send to the hospital or the morgue for lack of timely repayment?
 
Which store will exchange groceries for copper?

I was hinting to watch copper not to exchange it for groceries (though its not unheard of). But to watch it continue to rise in the values of fiat dollars. As a inflation indicator.

Today 100 real copper pennies is worth about $4+ fiat in just the copper alone.

Thats just sad.
 
Intrinsic value.
Some things have it. Some things don't.

Copper will always have high electrical conductivity, low resistance, and strong heat tolerance. It's common knowledge that copper is widely used in residential, commercial, and industrial wiring.

--------

Samson, why do you argue so energetically against metals? Were you Jim Cramer's roommate back in Harvard? I sometimes share my opinions here, but you, on the other hand, seem to have the devil's pitchfork poking you in the rear-end and driving you at breakneck speed. Seriously, what motivates you?
 
ROFL. To answer your question, I don’t agree with anyone 100% of the time. And I’m not afraid of people not agreeing with me. Everyone’s allowed an opinion. it’s how we express those opinions that keeps some of us in trouble. Hopefully we can all remember that. And seriously avoid the echo chamber effect.
 
ROFL. To answer your question, I don’t agree with anyone 100% of the time. And I’m not afraid of people not agreeing with me. Everyone’s allowed an opinion. it’s how we express those opinions that keeps some of us in trouble. Hopefully we can all remember that. And seriously avoid the echo chamber effect.
Just one more personal note before I take leave and stop drifting things here (though I do hope Samson clarifies his motivations).
Recently I attended an outdoor concert at an amphitheater in Western PA while the Canadian wildfire smoke was suffocating all of us. Only one person wore a mask. Thousands did not. That's how much I'm afraid of people not agreeing with me. I was right. Just me. I'm ok with that.
 
Just one more personal note before I take leave and stop drifting things here (though I do hope Samson clarifies his motivations).
I did. I moved it over to the Silver thread, I tagged you in it:

 
Early on in marriage, we maxed out a card. So I got a magnifying glass and read the small print.

It stated that paying the minimum 25.00 very month it will take 40 years to pay off the card. Rate then was in the 30% range.

Severe wake up call. And we were done with cards. Cut those things up, burned them, drove a stake through their heart and buried them face down. Wanted to use a silver bullet but thought we were going overboard. Been concerned ever since that we didn't have the discipline to use them like normal people.

I/we do still have a card in my wife's name mainly so she will have a credit rating to get small loans, if she needs one after I am gone. Her mother can't get a card with a 1000.00 max limit due to never having a card, or any credit of any kind in her name.

Got a notice a couple of months ago that if we didn't use the card by a certain date, they would cancel that card. So I used it to buy the stain for the house, when the bill came in, paid it off. Had the money in my pocket when I bought the stain. My hand was shaking when I pulled it out, and saying to myself, "Courage, Willow, courage."
I have a stack of cards and use them for everything. We pay them off when the bill comes in, and we owe nothing to anyone.

We just took a vacation and parked some savings into physical hardware and other inflation hedges.

For the first time in a couple of years, I'm going to roll over a credit card onto another credit card Cash advance with a 4% fee and 0% interest for 15 months.

I will pay off the vacation in a few months, but I am not going to deplete my emergency fund or regular savings just to pay off a credit card and get back to not owing any money.
 
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