ECON FUNG FYI: Dow Selloff as We Speak... (7/23/26)

Plain Jane said:
That is very true. The risk is for the entities holding private credit and the loans have to be rolled over. There are those that think this could provide the same systemic risk to stocks that mortgage backed securities did in 2008.
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You're absolutely right. I was waiting for someone to pick that up. If someone is holding private credit, the 10 year going up, isn't a good thing. It also affects individuals in regards to mortgages, car loans, credit card debt, etc., as rates will rise on those.

Unfortunately, many people and businesses loaded up on credit, when rates were low. And now, as they slide back up into more of a normal range, those loans might become painful.

Moral of the story, stay out of debt. That's why I mentioned it helps my high-yield rates. I have no debt tied to the 10 year, so it doesn't affect me, and for people who are savers, it helps them.

In the past 50 years, the 10 year spent a lot of time above the current mark:

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In currency trading, USD/JPY is up to 163.8 today. Historically, anything over 160 gets a lot of attention. If Japan decides to do something about it by raising yen borrowing costs, the yen carry trade unwind could affect US financial markets. The other side of that carry trade is US treasuries.

www.tradingview.com

USDJPY Chart — Dollar Yen Rate — TradingView

View live U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen chart to track latest price changes. Trade ideas, forecasts and market news are at your disposal as well.
www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com
 
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No sell off today. Maybe tomorrow. Actually trading was pretty well balanced with under one percentage point to the south side. A lot of volume with people picking up deals near closing time.

1784852474939.png
 
undead said:
it seems strange that we get this doomer thread, when so many threads are about how well people have done with the market over the last 10 years <sarcasm>
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LOL... Yeah, it's almost if trying to find market data and performance, is so hard to find for the past 10 years....

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Plain Jane said:
That is very true. The risk is for the entities holding private credit and the loans have to be rolled over. There are those that think this could provide the same systemic risk to stocks that mortgage backed securities did in 2008.
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FRIDAY, JULY 24
9:45 amS&P flash U.S. services PMIJuly51.551.2
9:45 amS&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMIJuly54.453.9
10:00 amNew home sales
 
Oil continues to climb. Prices at the pump in my neck of the woods are averaging about $4.20 pet gallon for regular. Diesel is considerably higher. Will post that number later.
Futures are up 229....

Note1: brent hovers around $100.00 per barrel..off from its highs.
Notr2:
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) & Business Activity
    • Eurozone Composite PMI: Rose to 51.9 in July (up from 6.0/50.0 in June), returning to growth for the first time in four months.
    • Germany Flash PMI: Manufacturing output hit a 4.5-year high, pushing the manufacturing index to 52.2.
    • UK Composite PMI: Increased to 52.1 from 49.3, marking the first growth for British firms in three months.
    • Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI: Remained solid at 54.7 (compared to 54.8 in June). [1, 2, 3, 4]

Trade & Market Pressures
    • New U.S. Tariffs: The White House imposed new forced-labor-related duties of 10% and 12.5% covering 99.4% of imports from 60 trading partners as previous temporary global tariffs expired. [1]
    • Global Oil & Energy: Brent crude rebounded back to $100 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, renewing global fears of stagflation. [1, 2]
    • CD Rates: Top certificate of deposit rates reached up to 4.94% for 6-month terms at select financial institutions. [1]

If you'd like, I can provide details on:
  • Specific U.S. employment or jobless claims data from the week
  • European Central Bank (ECB) rate decisions and policy outlook
  • Particular sector impacts like tech capital expenditures or automotive sales
Let me know what economic area you want to explore further.



ECB survey shows broadly unchanged inflation outlook
Jul 24, 2026 — Business * Euro zone firms struggle to raise consumer prices after Iran shock, ECB poll shows. Finance · July 24, 2026 · 1:06 AM PDT · 6 mins ago. * category. E...
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Reuters
 
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Things are going to break badly and suddenly. No need to go through the litany as we cover it on the board everyday from the $40T in debt and counting, to the latest war to the breakdown in society largely made up of people that know something is wrong but are oblivious to the cause. The republicans caused it, the democrats, the whites, the illegals……pick your poison.

Most of us would agree its going to break and we see the signs all around us. What is up for debate is the ‘when’. This (I believe) is a systemic breakdown which is unstoppable and is the band-aid going to continue to be pulled slowly or is it going to be ripped off taking the scab with it? I am of the latter opinion and since I don’t know exactly when the camel’s back is going to break, I’m very defensive.

The signs are as loud and vociferous as it was before 2007/2008 but we were not in an impending global war with a 130% debt to GDP back then. Be very careful here on out because when this rubber band breaks it will be too violent and too quick to react to it.
 
Hfcomms said:
Things are going to break badly and suddenly. No need to go through the litany as we cover it on the board everyday from the $40T in debt and counting, to the latest war to the breakdown in society largely made up of people that know something is wrong but are oblivious to the cause. The republicans caused it, the democrats, the whites, the illegals……pick your poison.

Most of us would agree its going to break and we see the signs all around us. What is up for debate is the ‘when’. This (I believe) is a systemic breakdown which is unstoppable and is the band-aid going to continue to be pulled slowly or is it going to be ripped off taking the scab with it? I am of the latter opinion and since I don’t know exactly when the camel’s back is going to break, I’m very defensive.

The signs are as loud and vociferous as it was before 2007/2008 but we were not in an impending global war with a 130% debt to GDP back then. Be very careful here on out because when this rubber band breaks it will be too violent and too quick to react to it.
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They've been loud and vocal for decades. We had a precipitous drop during covid and people were still making money hand over fist.

People need to be careful with their cries of doom or they'll create the very thing they fear ... in their own lives while others continue to make bank.
 
On the ground here in central Oklahoma in the private sector residential housing market..

I can say that the private sector new housing starts are vary minimum this year. Last year was vary good. This year its few and far between. Talking with my associates it has been a really slow year, and most all have down sized their payrolls. Also I see a lot of houses with acres not selling as fast, or even selling. See nice properties sitting on the market now for over a full year plus.

Had to go out to extream N. California in February this year. In a huge area that I serviced(as a contractor) for over 17 years ending in 2006. Not ONE new house was built in several developments that I had helped get developed in the 90s mostly. Not one new custom home or even new trailers. I suspect or know its because of the new zero net energy regulations in order to get a home built in California.

I'm doing fine here in Oklahoma because I've expanded my services to maintenance and repair and still do some fabrication. Pays the bills.
 
West said:
On the ground here in central Oklahoma in the private sector residential housing market..

I can say that the private sector new housing starts are vary minimum this year. Last year was vary good. This year its few and far between. Talking with my associates it has been a really slow year, and most all have down sized their payrolls. Also I see a lot of houses with acres not selling as fast, or even selling. See nice properties sitting on the market now for over a full year plus.

Had to go out to extream N. California in February this year. In a huge area that I serviced(as a contractor) for over 17 years ending in 2006. Not ONE new house was built in several developments that I had helped get developed in the 90s mostly. Not one new custom home or even new trailers. I suspect or know its because of the new zero net energy regulations in order to get a home built in California.

I'm doing fine here in Oklahoma because I've expanded my services to maintenance and repair and still do some fabrication. Pays the bills.
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Even though we are landlords I have to say, thank goodness the real estate market has stabilized and cooled off. The inflation was out of control and had it not cooled off it would have imploded, at least here in Florida. The prices for homes are still ridiculous and rents are still high compared to other states, but at least it has eased up. Not to the point I am seeing a lot of incentives being given away like free rent, new tv's, grocery cards, etc. but enough that people are willing to lose a deposit to move to a cheaper rental even if it is only for $20-$30 cheaper per month.
 
Kathy in FL said:
They've been loud and vocal for decades. We had a precipitous drop during covid and people were still making money hand over fist.

People need to be careful with their cries of doom or they'll create the very thing they fear ... in their own lives while others continue to make bank.
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I’m doing fine as I’m only about 10% in paper and I can afford to lose it all. What everyone has to ask themselves is if the game of musical chairs stops today and I don’t have a chair, can I afford to lose everything else? People tend to think (human nature) that they are smart enough to see it coming and they are one of the few that will get out in time. What if you aren’t?

We don’t have to go back too far to see what happens to those who didn’t get out in time. 2007/2008 took out a lot of people and families as well as the .com bubble when it popped. From what I understand about you is that you guys will probably be fine as you have a few places to go and you have prepared for that even if you feel that possibility unlikely.

Looking at the demographics of the nation as a whole and probably most on this board that we don’t have the luxury of being wrong. I’m blessed as I am not dependent on paper promises that mathematically can’t be paid. Now is not the time to throw caution to the wind as the alarm bells have never been louder.
 
In our area land/housing prices rose about 3x in the last 10 years.
Now houses and land are just sitting up for sale with no buyers. The 'for sale' signs all are looking weather beaten at this point. I am very happy real estate has cooled off in this area.
 
For the past 18 plus years that I've lived in Oklahoma there was at least two home building companies that were also developers. They both advertised on the local big news channel 9 out/in OKC area.

This year not one commercial, even on the top talk radio station.
 
Hfcomms said:
I’m doing fine as I’m only about 10% in paper and I can afford to lose it all. What everyone has to ask themselves is if the game of musical chairs stops today and I don’t have a chair, can I afford to lose everything else? People tend to think (human nature) that they are smart enough to see it coming and they are one of the few that will get out in time. What if you aren’t?

We don’t have to go back too far to see what happens to those who didn’t get out in time. 2007/2008 took out a lot of people and families as well as the .com bubble when it popped. From what I understand about you is that you guys will probably be fine as you have a few places to go and you have prepared for that even if you feel that possibility unlikely.

Looking at the demographics of the nation as a whole and probably most on this board that we don’t have the luxury of being wrong. I’m blessed as I am not dependent on paper promises that mathematically can’t be paid. Now is not the time to throw caution to the wind as the alarm bells have never been louder.
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And we doubled our portfolio in 2007/08 because we were positioned to take advantage of the "crash". Historically, what a lot of people don't know, is that a lot of people got rich during the Great Depression by buying the wealth that others sold off. Many of the nouveau riche of the time decorated their homes with treasures and trinkets they bought from their rich neighbors.

A lot of it is mindset and positioning through sound investment and savings strategies. Money and wealth, should not be lazy. It should work for you. Yes, passive investments and income streams can be part of the plan, but it shouldn't be a majority of your plan.

And Hfcomms I am not lecturing you LOL, just speaking in generalities. Everyone needs to design a plan that fits their specific circumstances and needs. Not everyone can do everything, and it certainly isn't prudent. But I have found after over 30 years in business and being an active planner even before that, that sitting around waiting for doom to happen is a good way to dig a hole you won't get out of.
 
Kathy in FL said:
They've been loud and vocal for decades. We had a precipitous drop during covid and people were still making money hand over fist.

People need to be careful with their cries of doom or they'll create the very thing they fear ... in their own lives while others continue to make bank.
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Doom predictions have a solid baseline demand. Some folks thrive on it. Ho hum. Don’t let fear control you. Do your own analysis. Keep your eyes open. Make your own decisions.
 
kite said:
Doom predictions have a solid baseline demand. Some folks thrive on it. Ho hum. Don’t let fear control you. Do your own analysis. Keep your eyes open. Make your own decisions.
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Doom as a self fulfilling prophecy? In the case of our present world situation.....Doom is an option... albeit not a very pleasant one.
..

Note1:THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.” – Thomas Paine – The American Crisis
.
 
Kathy in FL said:
And we doubled our portfolio in 2007/08 because we were positioned to take advantage of the "crash". Historically, what a lot of people don't know, is that a lot of people got rich during the Great Depression by buying the wealth that others sold off. Many of the nouveau riche of the time decorated their homes with treasures and trinkets they bought from their rich neighbors.

A lot of it is mindset and positioning through sound investment and savings strategies. Money and wealth, should not be lazy. It should work for you. Yes, passive investments and income streams can be part of the plan, but it shouldn't be a majority of your plan.

And Hfcomms I am not lecturing you LOL, just speaking in generalities. Everyone needs to design a plan that fits their specific circumstances and needs. Not everyone can do everything, and it certainly isn't prudent. But I have found after over 30 years in business and being an active planner even before that, that sitting around waiting for doom to happen is a good way to dig a hole you won't get out of.
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Absolutely agree! The demographics of this board I’m assuming the majority of the members are in their mid to late 40’s on up into the late 70’s. Of course we have notable members in their 80’s and some in their 20’s and 30’s. We have people living on a fixed income or living paycheck to paycheck and people who are very wealthy and own multiple businesses and properties. What works for one doesn’t work for all.

Nobody should make a decision based on what HF thinks or what Kathy thinks or anyone else for that matter. I can take input from anyone but in the end we own our decisions and the ramifications from them. What we collectively suffer from is all of our adult lives even though we realized as a nation we couldn’t keep on getting deeper and deeper in debt there was always a way to kick the can down the road. I think most of us are of the opinion we are rapidly running out of road now.

As no man knows the day or hour of Christ’s return nobody know the day or hour the music is going to stop and a chair is needed. It might be today, next week or even next year….we don’t know. And as doom is always a few months away the time comes where it happens. To you or me personally because out of an unexpected tragedy or to a false flag or legitimate attack from an adversary that brings us to our knees. We are a grape waiting to be plucked…and I don’t want to be made into jam.
 
West said:
For the past 18 plus years that I've lived in Oklahoma there was at least two home building companies that were also developers. They both advertised on the local big news channel 9 out/in OKC area.

This year not one commercial, even on the top talk radio station.
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Kind of off topic:

If you're interested in work/contract of some sort, in the construction/housing area, you might consider looking east towards Huntsville, AL.

It was unbelievable the housing construction going on there. It was everywhere. Space Command is, or already has moved there, several space type do-dads are moving there, tech things etc.

The construction we witnessed was back in Feb. of this year. They certainly seem to be in a boom.

And not only that but they have a Bucee's.

Win-win
 
Hfcomms said:
The signs are as loud and vociferous as it was before 2007/2008 but we were not in an impending global war with a 130% debt to GDP back then.
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I think you're forgetting what actually triggered the melt down in 2008. It was the housing market, and all the games being played in it. Remember, a Mexican landscaper was getting approved for a $600K mortgage..

We are NOT in that situation now.

What caused the 2008 economic crisis
The 2008 financial crisis was primarily caused by excessive speculation in the housing market, predatory lending practices for subprime mortgages, and significant deficiencies in financial regulation. These factors led to a housing bubble that eventually burst, resulting in widespread defaults and the collapse of major financial institutions.
Wikipedia Encyclopedia Britannica

What else happened? The DOW got cut in half, from 14K to around 7K. And what did many people do?? They bailed and hit the eject button.

What happened to the people who rode the wave? The market got back to even in like 5 years, and ten years later, the DOW was at 26K.
 
Kathy in FL said:
People need to be careful with their cries of doom or they'll create the very thing they fear ... in their own lives while others continue to make bank.
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What I find, both here and in the real world, with family and friends, those people who live by themselves, end up being controlled by the "voices in their heads", and they start separating from reality, and become led by these voices. No matter what subject we touch on, we can't break the "mindset", no matter what facts and evidence are presented. The "Voices" are just too strong, and leads these people to believe all types of unrealistic thoughts.

It's the same with the Doom crowd. The world is ALWAYS ending... Today, yesterday, last week, last month, last year, 5 years ago... it's even worse than the "broken clock" syndrome, because they're never right, where the clock is right twice a day...
 
Southside said:
Between now & first week of November I hope & pray that you make 10%.
I really do. Even if PM's went down. I would be happy to take one for the team.
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I really don't care if I make anything in that time frame. I can't spend what I already have. In fact, as I've said many times, I feel we are WAY overdue for a nice correction, way PAST due, so I expect that too. Even if we get a -30% correction, that only smacks the market back like two years of gains. In the big picture, a nothingburger.

That sure beats the -50% smackdown Silver took this year.

Southside said:
Trump needs a good stock market.
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This is true, because over 60% of the population has investments in the market, so it affects 100's of millions of people.
 
uh, yeah, the market will tank, we are due

it's called cycles, duh

we'll have a recession, we are not recession-proof, NO country is, but we'll come out of it and then things will go up for years again

wake me when we are invaded by aliens
 
Kathy in FL said:
And we doubled our portfolio in 2007/08 because we were positioned to take advantage of the "crash". Historically, what a lot of people don't know, is that a lot of people got rich during the Great Depression by buying the wealth that others sold off.
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Also, what many people forget or don't know, crashes are part of the financial landscape. They come normally, usually every handful of years, to help clean out the dead wood, and reset the markets. Once people realize this, and make a plan, like you did, for the upside AND the downsides, everything levels and averages out.

It's called the Business Cycle. No one should be afraid of it, or live in Doomville, but make a plan what you'll do when it comes... and it always comes.... This current Business Cycle is like 5 years PAST due for it's reset...

Overview of the Business Cycle​

The business cycle describes the fluctuations in economic activity that an economy experiences over time. It consists of four main phases:
PhaseDescription
ExpansionA period of increasing economic output, where production and employment rise.
PeakThe highest point of economic activity before a downturn begins.
ContractionAlso known as a recession, this phase involves a decline in economic activity.
TroughThe lowest point of economic activity, marking the end of a recession.

Key Characteristics​

  • Expansion: During this phase, the economy grows, leading to higher production of goods and services. Employment rates typically increase, and consumer spending rises.
  • Peak: This phase represents the transition point where economic growth reaches its maximum. After this point, the economy begins to slow down.
  • Contraction: In this phase, economic activity declines. This can lead to reduced consumer spending, lower production, and increased unemployment. A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.
  • Trough: The economy hits its lowest point in this phase, after which recovery begins. It marks the end of the contraction phase.

Importance of the Business Cycle​

Understanding the business cycle is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and investors. It helps in forecasting economic trends and making informed decisions regarding investments, employment, and fiscal policies. The cycle is influenced by various factors, including consumer confidence, government policies, and external shocks to the economy.
quartzfinancial.com Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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King Samson said:
DOW up +383 right now, gained most of the -500 loss yesterday back?

Will it close in the Green today?
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Yeah, I just dropped in for a quickie look. Lotta volume at open as was to be expected. Very short window of profit taking, again to be expected because it is Friday and because of the day traders. It is up today but over all things are still rolling in a very stable pattern. I'm waiting to see if there's more profit-taking before close.

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How much world events have a lasting effect on the stock market is debatable. I agree that the stock market can be impacted by world or home shaking events be they policical, enocomic, etc. that makes traders pucker up for a day, week and maybe even a couple of months. As the shock value of the event wanes, the negative stock impact starts to wear off on traders and investors. We have seen so many "shock" events over the last 50 years like 9-11, Iraq 1, 2, 3, Afghanistan, Iran 1,2 , Somali, China, Russia, Ukraine, etc, etc, etc, that traders and average investors are developing a thick skin. If its not in their back yard, so what? Negative investor psychology is historically short term. Think about how these events affected you when you first heard about them and what your feelings about them are today.

Traders do their do diligence responsibilities by evaluating companies to see annual revenues, earnings, dividends, P-E ratio, yada, yada, yada are growing, and if future growth of stock price increases can be supported. Inflation also has an impact on stock pricing as the dollar depreciates, the stock price has to go up to support the true value of the company. Other people in the woodpile are the players, ones who speculate on companies to drive up the stock price or "influencers" who are giving out stock advice but are just guessing.

Once you get past event and human influence, the biggest stock driver in the room is the 800 lb. gorilla known as 401K.
As long as the tens of billions of 401K contributions keep entering their companies accounts daily, immense pressure is on traders like Fidelity, to invest those dollars by holding and buying more stocks to make more money for their investors. They know if they don't make money on a quarterly or annual basis, that huge amounts of money will be pulled out of their company and sent over to their competitors.

Can another 1929 happen again. I doubt it. Can we have dips. Absolutely but there will be a recovery over time. There are just too many drivers in place where the average Joe Schom investor has little impact or even options for his retirement savings and now is just going along with the ride and hopes for the best. Unless we have some catistrophic event that would wipe out our econony like losing a war, aliens invading, Kamala Harris being elected President, I can't see a stock market thats not just chugging along in the future.
 
CaBuckeye said:
How much world events have a lasting effect on the stock market is debatable. I agree that the stock market can be impacted by world or home shaking events be they policical, enocomic, etc. that makes traders pucker up for a day, week and maybe even a couple of months. As the shock value of the event wanes, the negative stock impact starts to wear off on traders and investors. We have seen so many "shock" events over the last 50 years like 9-11, Iraq 1, 2, 3, Afghanistan, Iran 1,2 , Somali, China, Russia, Ukraine, etc, etc, etc, that traders and average investors are developing a thick skin. If its not in their back yard, so what? Negative investor psychology is historically short term. Think about how these events affected you when you first heard about them and what your feelings about them are today.

Traders do their do diligence responsibilities by evaluating companies to see annual revenues, earnings, dividends, P-E ratio, yada, yada, yada are growing, and if future growth of stock price increases can be supported. Inflation also has an impact on stock pricing as the dollar depreciates, the stock price has to go up to support the true value of the company. Other people in the woodpile are the players, ones who speculate on companies to drive up the stock price or "influencers" who are giving out stock advice but are just guessing.

Once you get past event and human influ ence, the biggest stock driver in the room is the 800 lb. gorilla known as 401K.
As long as the tens of billions of 401K contributions keep entering their companies accounts daily, immense pressure is on traders like Fidelity, to invest those dollars by holding and buying more stocks to make more money for their investors. They know if they don't make money on a quarterly or annual basis, that huge amounts of money will be pulled out of their company and sent over to their competitors.

Can another 1929 happen again. I doubt it. Can we have dips. Absolutely but there will be a recovery over time. There are just too many drivers in place where the average Joe Schom investor has little impact or even options for his retirement savings and now is just going along with the ride and hopes for the best. Unless we have some catistrophic event that would wipe out our econony like losing a war, aliens invading, Kamala Harris being elected President, I can't see a stock markot just chugging along in the future.
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INFLATION WATCH..
MORGAN WALLEN...concert ongoing in Ann Arbor Mi...price of parking...$120.00 to $200.00 for parking...not tickets...parking.
 
doctor_fungcool said:
INFLATION WATCH..
MORGAN WALLEN...concert ongoing in Ann Arbor Mi...price of parking...$120.00 to $200.00 for parking...not tickets...parking.
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$85 for a uncooked steak!

Amazon.com: Angus Beef Tomahawk "Cowboy" Steak 100% Grass-Fed Angus Beef Bone-In Ribeye - approx. 1.2 LB / 545 G - GUARANTEED OVERNIGHT : Grocery & Gourmet Food

Amazon.com: Angus Beef Tomahawk "Cowboy" Steak 100% Grass-Fed Angus Beef Bone-In Ribeye - approx. 1.2 LB / 545 G - GUARANTEED OVERNIGHT : Grocery & Gourmet Food
www.amazon.com
 
CaBuckeye said:
How much world events have a lasting effect on the stock market is debatable. I agree that the stock market can be impacted by world or home shaking events be they policical, enocomic, etc. that makes traders pucker up for a day, week and maybe even a couple of months. As the shock value of the event wanes, the negative stock impact starts to wear off on traders and investors.
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One of the BIG influencers we have now, that we didn't have 10 - 20 years ago, are the Algorithms, that trade "on the news". Roughly 80% of the market is controlled by them. This is why we see some of these wild swings, as they "react" to the headlines, then a little while later, when more information comes out, they calm back down.

Joe 6 Pack trader doesn't stand a chance competing against the Algo's, and just gets the crumbs, after the fact.
 
doctor_fungcool said:
MORGAN WALLEN...concert ongoing in Ann Arbor Mi...price of parking...$120.00 to $200.00 for parking...not tickets...parking.
Click to expand...
Wanna know why they charge that? Because they know people will pay it.... Isn't Capitalism wonderful!

What would happen if people refused to pay that amount, and the lots sat empty?
 
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