ECON FUNG FYI: Dow Selloff as We Speak... (7/23/26)

[doctor_fungcool]

I predict a 20% haircut concerning the Dow from now to Oct. 19th of 2026. Presently Dow is Down 600 and change...only a pittance. With rising oil prices...and a war in Iran...know this.
.IT BEGINS

Oh...by the way..
PM' S are making a move.

This is...by the way is..my opinion.

Note1: never take advice from some guy on the internet. Do your own DD ...and then make your own decisions.

 

[Hfcomms]

Point of ‘honor’ among central bankers that they have to warn the rabble about what is shortly to come.​

They did that just before the 2007/2008 debacle as well.

​

​

​

Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices​

PUBLISHED MON, JUL 20 20267:01 PM EDTUPDATED TUE, JUL 21 20266:24 AM EDT

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks that could eventually rattle markets.
• Dimon said he wouldn’t be a buyer of either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices.
• “I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think,” Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising military spending in a time of mounting government deficits.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating the risks facing the global economy and that he wouldn’t buy either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at their current prices.

In an hourlong interview with Wilfred Frost released late Monday, Dimon said markets aren’t fully accounting for a growing list of geopolitical and fiscal threats.




“I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think,” Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising military spending in a time of mounting government deficits.

Asked whether markets are underpricing the chance of a major shock, Dimon said it’s difficult to know exactly what risks are already reflected in asset prices.

“It’s possible something’s baked in, but what’s not baked in is what actually happens,” he said.

Dimon, who leads the world’s largest bank by market cap, often warns the public about the economic risks he sees.

Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices

Comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon contrast with investors' recent willingness to look past wars, tariffs and other shocks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[doctor_fungcool]

Point of ‘honor’ among central bankers that they have to warn the rabble about what is shortly to come.​

They did that just before the 2007/2008 debacle as well.

​

​

​

Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn’t buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices​

PUBLISHED MON, JUL 20 20267:01 PM EDTUPDATED TUE, JUL 21 20266:24 AM EDT

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating geopolitical and fiscal risks that could eventually rattle markets.
• Dimon said he wouldn’t be a buyer of either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices.
• “I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think,” Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising military spending in a time of mounting government deficits.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors are underestimating the risks facing the global economy and that he wouldn’t buy either equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys at their current prices.

In an hourlong interview with Wilfred Frost released late Monday, Dimon said markets aren’t fully accounting for a growing list of geopolitical and fiscal threats.




“I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think,” Dimon said, pointing to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the U.S. and China, and rising military spending in a time of mounting government deficits.

Asked whether markets are underpricing the chance of a major shock, Dimon said it’s difficult to know exactly what risks are already reflected in asset prices.

“It’s possible something’s baked in, but what’s not baked in is what actually happens,” he said.

Dimon, who leads the world’s largest bank by market cap, often warns the public about the economic risks he sees.

Jamie Dimon says markets underestimate risks and he wouldn't buy stocks or Treasurys at current prices

Comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon contrast with investors' recent willingness to look past wars, tariffs and other shocks.

www.cnbc.com

"Rising inflation volatility is set to trigger earnings disappointments, wider credit spreads and more variability in stock and bond prices..."....zerohedge

 

[Kathy in FL]

1% does not a sell off make which is all it is at this time. 20% by the end of October? Possibly. We are due but even that wouldn't put it below the gains we've made in the last year.

 

[BassMan]

I would observe only that with oil reserves dwindling due to the Iran war, we seem to be nearing "tank bottoms".

 

[Kathy in FL]

As for your statement on PMs. Not reflected in the GLD shares.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

As for your statement on PMs. Not reflected in the GLD shares.

View attachment 612979

Kathy we are headed for a severe recession/depression by the time the midterms arrive IMHO.
TOO many problems both here and abroad.

 

[King Samson]

I predict a 20% haircut concerning the Dow from now to Oct. 19th of 2026. Presently Dow is Down 600 and change...

DOW still up 8% YTD.. which is usually the historic growth for a YEAR...

Oh...by the way..
PM' S are making a move.

They are?? Maybe DOWN... Silver DOWN -18% YTD... and DOWN -50% from it's high in January.

 

[King Samson]

I would observe only that with oil reserves dwindling due to the Iran war, we seem to be nearing "tank bottoms".

I discussed the Fear Factor being pushed about "tank bottoms" the other day at this link... Don't believe what you read:

ECON - FUNG RED *.*Economic Implications Concerning The Closing of the Strait of Hormuz

Can't resist the troll....can you? Can't dispute the FACTS, can you. I see a pattern...

www.timebomb2000.com

 

[Kathy in FL]

Kathy we are headed for a severe recession/depression by the time the midterms arrive IMHO.
TOO many problems both here and abroad.

I'll believe it when I see it. Yes, we are due a major correction. However, there is still too much money floating around. People by and large, aren't going to stick it in the Bank of Sealy and forget about it. There are too many retirement accounts where employers are mandated by employment contacts to match funds. There are so many wealthy people with lots of cash assets even if they are overloaded with debt.

Then add in that today's trading companies use algorithms, not emotions.

Until the money shrinks I don't foresee any crash happening. As many things that are going on in the world saying the market should crash, there is too much money in the world holding the system up.

Instead of people panicking they need to make money while they can. Eventually the merry-go-round stops, but not today nor tomorrow. By the end of October? Doom is always a few weeks away.

 

[Mzkitty]

 

[Southside]

The Dem's would LOVE a 20% drop by election day.
They HAVE to fix the voting problems. NOW!

Damn RINO's

 

[King Samson]

1% does not a sell off make which is all it is at this time. 20% by the end of October? Possibly. We are due but even that wouldn't put it below the gains we've made in the last year.

Exactly..

Even if we had a 30% correction, and a correction is WAY overdue, we would lose the gains of the last two years... Hardly Armeggeddon...

 

[King Samson]

Instead of people panicking they need to make money while they can. Eventually the merry-go-round stops, but not today nor tomorrow. By the end of October? Doom is always a few weeks away.

I wonder if Dr. Fung had another one of his dreams/nightmares. He posted a similar panic a few weeks ago.

 

[Mzkitty]

 

[CaryC]

By the end of October? Doom is always a few weeks away.

It is and October is the Doom Doom month. Stock market crash. The appearing of the AC, and the rapture.

 

[summerthyme]

Kathy we are headed for a severe recession/depression by the time the midterms arrive IMHO.
TOO many problems both here and abroad.

That may well be true. But pretty much every point you made in your OP is *false*...
Summerthyme

 

[CaryC]

That may well be true. But pretty much every point you made in your OP is *false*...
Summerthyme

You sound like Luke Skywalker.

 

[King Samson]

the DOW is down -1% as I type this... It's got a long way to go, to even make it into the top 20 daily drops, as a percentage:

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average​

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Mzkitty]

 

[doctor_fungcool]

As for your statement on PMs. Not reflected in the GLD shares.

View attachment 612979

Gold Spot Price​

• Gold
• Silver
• Platinum
• Palladium

$4,063.00 USD$68.70 USD 1.72% 1WAsk: $4,063.00 USD Bid: $4,000.50

the DOW is down -1% as I type this... It's got a long way to go, to even make it into the top 20 daily drops, as a percentage:

View attachment 612988

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average​

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Dow hasn't had a come to Jesus selloff in months...time for a reckoning...

 

[CaryC]

You sound like Luke Skywalker.

Just to clarify:

When Rey (the girl with the Force ability) came to see Luke Skywalker, the hero of the rebellion, she made a statement, and Luke said: Everything you just said was wrong.

Then later in a confrontation with Kylo Ren, son of Hans Solo, and now a bad guy, Luke says the same thing: Everything you just said is wrong.

So @summerthyme saying everything in the OP was false, just sounded like Luke.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

Just to clarify:

When Rey (the girl with the Force ability) came to see Luke Skywalker, the hero of the rebellion, she made a statement, and Luke said: Everything you just said was wrong.

Then later in a confrontation with Kylo Ren, son of Hans Solo, and now a bad guy, Luke says the same thing: Everything you just said is wrong.

So @summerthyme saying everything in the OP was false, just sounded like Luke.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp
NASDAQ: SPCX


Follow



113.00
USD

Oh my!

 

[Southside]

Well, at least I am not getting killed on the SPCX shares I never bought.

 

[Red Baron]

 

[Plain Jane]

Actually I'm more worried about the what treasuries are doing. The FED meeting is July 28/29.

Noon today:

US Markets

Up to date market data and stock market news is available online. View US market headlines and market charts. Get the latest economy news, markets in our Market Overview.

www.cnbc.com

Treasurys​

SYMBOL	YIELD	CHANGE
US 1-MO	3.787	+0.077
US 3-MO	3.895	+0.057
US 6-MO	4.052	+0.039
US 1-YR	4.135	+0.027
US 2-YR	4.355	+0.053
US 10-YR	4.699	+0.042
US 30-YR	5.173	+0.026

 

[KFhunter]

Just to clarify:

When Rey (the girl with the Force ability) came to see Luke Skywalker, the hero of the rebellion, she made a statement, and Luke said: Everything you just said was wrong.

Then later in a confrontation with Kylo Ren, son of Hans Solo, and now a bad guy, Luke says the same thing: Everything you just said is wrong.

So @summerthyme saying everything in the OP was false, just sounded like Luke.

Summer Skywalker has a nice ring to it

 

[Sacajawea]

Now that the price of SpaceX has come down to earth and the IPO-speculators are out... it's looking like buy to me. But I want to see how much debt the company carries and it's other fundamentals.

 

[King Samson]

$4,063.00 USD$68.70 USD 1.72% 1WAsk: $4,063.00 USD Bid: $4,000.50

Right... Gold Down from it's high of $5500, back in January...

The Dow hasn't had a come to Jesus selloff in months...time for a reckoning...

It has a significant selloff back in March, over 10% when the Iranian fun started. That wasn't too long ago, and it recovered all those loses.

 

[King Samson]

With rising oil prices...and a war in Iran...know this.

It's NOT going to be oil or Iran, that kicks the market in the ass, it's going to be the A.I. trade and investment, that will melt it down:

"Closing Time" On The AI Bubble Is Sooner Than Most Think; Ed Dowd Warns​

The Iran/US war is not the only headwind Dowd sees.

AI (artificial intelligence) investment is in bubble territory according to Dowd, and the lights are about to go out on that trade. Dowd says:

“The stock market is 45% AI and AI adjacent.
When the equity market figures out the party may be slowing or it’s over, that will affect the stock market.

It’s a feedback loop that I think is beginning. Let’s call it the AI summer of discontent...
Closing time is closer than most people think. The party has been going on for a while.

We had this huge impulse in semiconductor stocks in April and May. The indices have 17% to 19% of the S&P 500, the semiconductor index.

That is a warning sign in and of itself. This is a notoriously cyclical boom and bust industry... There is inflation going on in this... AI build.

All the projections of return on investment are going the way of the dodo bird because they are now paying exorbitant prices for commodity memory chips. Also, power costs are going up, and they have to build power plants. The whole math does not work with the AI infrastructure in the credit driven AI complex.

So, the math kind of implodes on itself at some point...

I think the party is closer to the end than the beginning, and closing time will be upon us soon.”
When the AI bubble pops, Dowd expect a “nasty pullback in the stock market.”

This is why Dowd is telling investors to raise cash levels just like famed investor Warren Buffett is doing by holding record amounts of cash in his fund. Dowd says, “Cash is dry powder.”

And for those who think the US dollar is going to tank, Dowd thinks just the opposite and says, “The dollar looks quite bullish.”

"Closing Time" On The AI Bubble Is Sooner Than Most Think; Ed Dowd Warns Iran War Brings Global Recession Closer<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[doctor_fungcool]

Brent crude just hit $100.09 per barrel.)(bloomberg)

 

[Kathy in FL]

Gold Spot Price​

• Gold
• Silver
• Platinum
• Palladium

$4,063.00 USD$68.70 USD 1.72% 1WAsk: $4,063.00 USD Bid: $4,000.50


The Dow hasn't had a come to Jesus selloff in months...time for a reckoning...

You can tell everyone something should be so, that doesn't mean that it will be so.

As for your PM pricing, most people do not hold physical, they hold paper ... like everything else. Less than 10% of the people in this country hold physical PMs. Much less that percentage hold a significant amount of PMs.

 

[Kathy in FL]

Brent crude just hit $100.09 per barrel.)(bloomberg)

And I paid $3.79 a gallon of gas yesterdat. That is still well south of what I was paying for a gallon of fuel. Only a couple of years ago I was paying nearly $5/gallon. We are still well within the green zone for pricing.

 

[doctor_fungcool]

10 yr. Treasury...4.7%....30 yr. Note 5%...

 

[King Samson]

Brent crude just hit $100.09 per barrel.)(bloomberg)

Only $39 more per barrel to go, to reach the levels it hit during the Biden years.

10 yr. Treasury...4.7%.

I, for one, like when the 10 year goes up, it can help my high-yield savings account interest rates.

 

[ktrapper]

All this fear mongering sounds like CNN just before an election.

 

[hiwall]

The question should be......Why isn't the DOW falling like a rock?

 

[KittyKatChic]

Dude, it's days like these that you make your money. Sometimes BIG moves.

It's been a great day IMO

Now that the markets are closed, I'm going to eat and have a celebratory smoke.

P.S. I'm probably going to grab some SPCX to hold for a while. Just waiting to see what open looks like tomorrow.

 

[King Samson]

Brent crude just hit $100.09 per barrel.)(

Looking at the past chart, it seems $100 was a popular number. Look how often it was that high in the past two decades:

 

[Plain Jane]

I, for one, like when the 10 year goes up, it can help my high-yield savings account interest rates.

That is very true. The risk is for the entities holding private credit and the loans have to be rolled over. There are those that think this could provide the same systemic risk to stocks that mortgage backed securities did in 2008.