INTL Europe: Politics, Economics, Military - January 2024

[Plain Jane]

December 2023 thread:

INTL - Europe: Politics, Economics, Military - December 2023

November's thread: https://www.timebomb2000.com/xf/index.php?threads/europe-politics-economics-military-november-2023.639579/#post-9957615 https://apnews.com/article/germany-arrests-christmas-market-attack-plot-dd1f7ec7a984c2eb980ca9ab09b06eb2 Tis the season... Teenage suspects accused of...

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Separatist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik vows to tear his country apart despite US warnings

The Bosnian Serbs’ separatist leader is vowing to keep weakening his war-scarred country until it tears apart, despite a pledge by the United States to prevent that.

apnews.com

Separatist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik vows to tear his country apart despite US warnings​

RADUL RADOVANOVIC
Updated 3:26 AM EST, December 30, 2023
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BANJA LUKA, Bosnia-Herzegovina (AP) — The Bosnian Serbs’ separatist leader vowed to carry on weakening his war-scarred country to the point where it will tear apart, despite a pledge by the United States to prevent such an outcome.

“I am not irrational, I know that America’s response will be to use force … but I have no reason to be frightened by that into sacrificing (Serb) national interests,” Milorad Dodik, the president of Bosnia’s Serb-run part, told The Associated Press in an interview Friday.

He said any any attempt to use international intervention to further strengthen Bosnia’s shared, multiethnic institutions will be met by Bosnian Serb decision to abandon them completely and take the country back to the state of disunity and dysfunction it was in at the end of its brutal interethnic war in the 1990s.

Because Western democracies will not be agreeable to that, he added, “in the next stage, we will be forced by their reaction to declare full independence” of the Serb-controlled regions of Bosnia.

The Bosnian War started in 1992 when Belgrade-backed Bosnian Serbs tried to create an “ethnically pure” region with the aim of joining neighboring Serbia by killing and expelling the country’s Croats and Bosniaks, who are mostly Muslims. More than 100,000 people were killed and upward of 2 million, or over half of the country’s population, were driven from their homes before a peace agreement was reached in Dayton, Ohio, late in 1995.



The agreement divided Bosnia into two entities — the Serb-run Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat Federation — which were given wide autonomy but remained linked by some shared, multiethnic institutions. It also instituted the Office of the High Representative, an international body charged with shepherding the implementation of the peace agreement that was given broad powers to impose laws or dismiss officials who undermined the fragile post-war ethnic balance, including judges, civil servants, and members of parliament.

Over the years, the OHR has pressured Bosnia’s bickering ethnic leaders to build shared, statewide institutions, including the army, intelligence and security agencies, the top judiciary and the tax administration. However, further bolstering of the existing institutions and the creation of new ones is required if Bosnia is to reach its declared goal of joining the European Union.


Dodik appeared unperturbed Friday by the statement posted a day earlier on X, formerly known as Twitter, by James O’Brien, the U.S. assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, that Washington will act if anyone tries to change “the basic element” of the 1995 peace agreement for Bosnia, and that there is “no right of secession.”

FILE - Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, left attends with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic a ceremony marking the opening of the station building of the Prokop railway station in Belgrade, Serbia, Friday, Oct. 20, 2023. Bosnian Serb separatist leader wowed to carry on weakening his multiethnic, war-scarred country to the point where it will tear apart, despite the pledge by the United States to prevent such an outcome. “I am not irrational, I know that America’s response will be to use force…but I have no reason to be frightened by that (realization) into sacrificing (Serb) national interests,” Milorad Dodik, the president of Bosnia’s Serb-run part, told The Associated Press in an interview Friday. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic, File)

“Among Serbs, one thing is clear and definite and that is a growing realization that the years and decades ahead of us are the years and decades of Serb national unification,” Dodik said.

“Brussels is using the promise of EU accession as a tool to unitarize Bosnia,” said Dodik, who is staunchly pro-Russian, adding: “In principle, our policy still is that we want to join (the EU), but we no longer see that as our only alternative.”

The EU, he said, “had proven itself capable of working against its own interests” by siding with Washington against Moscow when Russia launched its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Dodik, who has been calling for the separation of the Serb entity from the rest of Bosnia for over a decade, has faced British and U.S. sanctions for his policies but has had Russia’s support.

There are widespread fears that Russia is trying to destabilize Bosnia and the rest of the region to shift at least some world attention from its war in Ukraine.

“Whether U.S. and Britain like it or not, we will turn the administrative boundary between (Bosnia’s two) entities into our national border,” Dodik said.

 

[northern watch]

Hamas in London​

by Robert Williams
Gatestone Institute
January 1, 2024 at 5:00 am

At least four groups with links to Hamas are reportedly behind several of the marches: The Muslim Association of Britain (MAB), the Palestinian Forum for Britain, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, and the Friends of al-Aqsa.

• "[M]embership of the Muslim Brotherhood remained (and still remains) a secret." — UK government report, "Muslim Brotherhood Review: Main Findings," December 17, 2015
• Too often, unfortunately, those many propaganda goals evidently correspond to what the organizations behind the never-ending pro-Hamas protests in London -- and around the world -- seek to obtain: Creating sympathy for Hamas and the Gazans, demonizing Israel, which is fighting terrorism for all of us so that we will not have to, and increasing pressure for a permanent ceasefire that will enable Hamas to survive.
• "Unfortunately, Hamas's bloodlust is not limited to Israel and Jews but also extends to Europe and Christians. I want to remind you that in the past, Hamas members expressed the Islamic intention to conquer Europe." — Israel's Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli, in a letter sent to about 20 European leaders warning of "a massive network of Hams operatives and the growing activism of Hamas across Europe," December 2023.
• Uprooting Hamas in the UK anytime in the near future, given the lack of enthusiasm that the Met Police have shown in the wake of the pro-Hamas demonstrations, sadly seems unlikely.

Uprooting Hamas in the UK anytime in the near future, given the lack of enthusiasm that the Met Police have shown in the wake of the pro-Hamas demonstrations, sadly seems unlikely. Pictured: A protester holds a placard while taking part in the "National March For Palestine" in London on November 11, 2023 (Photo by Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images)
The pro-Hamas protests in London are not, apparently, as organic and spontaneous as their organizers would like them to seem.

At least four groups with links to Hamas are reportedly behind several of the marches: The Muslim Association of Britain (MAB), the Palestinian Forum for Britain, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, and the Friends of al-Aqsa. The same groups were behind the largest protest so far, on November 11 in London, where it is estimated that around 300,000 people participated.

Supporting Hamas, a proscribed terrorist organization in the UK, could lead to up to 14 years in prison.

The MAB was co-founded and directed for almost a decade by Muhammad Kathem Sawalha, who in the late 1980s was a Hamas leader in Samaria in the West Bank, where he reportedly "masterminded" Hamas's terrorist strategy. He fled to the UK in the late 1990s and, incredibly, obtained British citizenship, despite being on Israel's most-wanted list.

The US Department of Justice named Sawalha as a co-conspirator in the 2004 indictment of Hamas recruiter and financer Muhammad Salah, "for allegedly participating in a 15-year racketeering conspiracy in the United States and abroad to illegally finance terrorist activities in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, including providing money for the purchase of weapons... "

"All three defendants allegedly used bank accounts in the United States to launder millions of dollars for disbursement to support Hamas, which has publicly claimed credit for engaging in suicide bombings that resulted in the deaths of Israeli military personnel and civilians, as well as American and other foreign nationals in Israel and the West Bank."

According to Israeli authorities, his son, Obada Sawalha, is now the MAB's vice-president.

The Muslim Association of Britain has links to the Muslim Brotherhood -- of which Hamas is also an offshoot. A 2015 UK government review of the Muslim Brotherhood reported:

"In the 1990s the Muslim Brotherhood and their associates established public facing and apparently national organisations in the UK to promote their views. None were openly identified with the Muslim Brotherhood and membership of the Muslim Brotherhood remained (and still remains) a secret. But for some years the Muslim Brotherhood shaped the new Islamic Society of Britain (ISB), dominated the Muslim Association of Britain (MAB) and played an important role in establishing and then running the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB). MAB became politically active, notably in connection with Palestine and Iraq, and promoted candidates in national and local elections."

According to the Telegraph:

"Another of the Muslim Association of Britain's three directors, Dr Anas Altikriti, co-founded a group called the British Muslim Initiative with a senior commander in Hamas, Mohammed Sawalha, and Azzam Tamimi who has been described as a Hamas 'special envoy' in Britain."

Another group behind the protest, the Palestinian Forum for Britain, is led by Zaher Birawi, who was designated by Israel as a terrorist in 2013. The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center described Birawi as a "Hamas-affiliated Palestinian" in 2017, when Birawi was in charge of the so-called flotillas to Gaza, which he oversaw as part of Hamas' propaganda effort.

The Meir Amit Center wrote in 2017:

"Birawi was recently interviewed by Felesteen, Hamas' daily newspaper. He discussed, among other things, the many current difficulties in dispatching flotillas to the Gaza Strip, but tried to minimize their significance and importance. He said the flotillas' main goal is propaganda aimed at keeping the Palestinians, the Gaza Strip and the 'siege' as 'live' topics in international public discourse. According to Birawi, the objectives of the flotillas are to defame Israel, and to increase the effect of the political and media campaigns accompanying the flotillas...
"[T]he real aim of the Mavi Marmara was not to bring humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, but rather for propaganda and political capital: to demonstrate support for Hamas, to exert pressure on Israel to unilaterally change its policy of closure on the Gaza Strip; to create sympathy in the media for the suffering of the Palestinians resulting from the 'siege' and to deepen Israel's isolation."

Birawi met Ismail Haniyeh and other leaders of the terror group in Gaza in 2012.

The real reason for the Mavi Marmara flotilla, of course -- the reason Israel stopped it -- was not propaganda. Turkey's supposedly humanitarian relief organization, the IHH, turned out to be secretly carrying weapons to Gaza. Israel had first offered the flotilla to dock in the port of Ashdod for inspection. There appear to be propaganda counter-efforts to suppress information about the attempted arms transfer.

Too often, unfortunately, those many propaganda goals evidently correspond to what the organizations behind the never-ending pro-Hamas protests in London -- and around the world -- seek to obtain: Creating sympathy for Hamas and the Gazans, demonizing Israel, which is fighting terrorism for all of us so that we will not have to, and increasing pressure for a permanent ceasefire that will enable Hamas to survive.

Two former leaders of the third group behind the protest, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, reportedly met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza in 2012.

The fourth group behind the protests, is the Friends of al-Aqsa (FOA). According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center:

"Is an anti-Israeli NGO established in Britain in 1997... the FOA qualifies Israel's policy as 'apartheid', supports Hamas and the 'resistance' (i.e., terrorism), and seeks to put an end to Israel's existence as the state of the Jewish people under the title of 'liberation of Palestine'. Similarly to other organizations taking part in the delegitimization effort, the FOA attempts to conceal and play down its real objectives by fine-tuning its rhetoric for Western ears and using such terms as 'peace in Palestine', 'respect for international law', 'respect for human rights, and 'implementation of UN resolutions.'"

FOA's leader, Ismail Patel, has met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Gaza.

All of the above prompted critics to demand that the protests be cancelled. According to Sky News, half of all Britons wanted the march that took place on Remembrance Day, November 11, to be banned. Sir Mark Rowley, commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, however, apparently saw no grounds to ban it.

This extremely lax relationship of the British police towards Hamas-affiliated groups in Britain is dangerous to the UK itself.

At the beginning of December, Israel sent personal letters to about 20 European leaders, including the UK, that included evidence of the terrorist activity of Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) in European cities. The letter stated:

"Since the [October 7] massacre, calls for violence against Jews worldwide have increased by 120% - a shocking statistic. Unfortunately, Hamas's bloodlust is not limited to Israel and Jews but also extends to Europe and Christians. I want to remind you that in the past, Hamas members expressed the Islamic intention to conquer Europe..."

Tzur Bar-Oz, Head of the Research and Foreign Relations Division at the Diaspora Affairs Ministry, added in the letter:

"Hamas has been operating for many years worldwide, mainly through covert humanitarian donations. It is a complex network of hatred operating in many countries, including Western and highly democratic ones. This phenomenon must be uprooted and eradicated as soon as possible."

Uprooting Hamas in the UK anytime in the near future, given the lack of enthusiasm that the Met Police have shown in the wake of the pro-Hamas demonstrations, sadly seems unlikely.

"Speeches at pro-Palestinian rallies in the UK might have glorified terrorism" according to the UK government's independent reviewer of terrorism.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, to his immense credit, as soon as the pro-Hamas demonstrations began in the UK, said:

"Inciting violence, racial hatred, is illegal. People who are acting in an abusive or threatening manner causing distress are breaking the law. The police have the power and the tools that they need to ensure they can stop that from happening and you will see that in full force in the coming days to make sure anyone who breaks the law meets the full force of that law."

While the Met Police have made some arrests, they have overall allowed the chanting of terrorist slogans to continue at the many weekly protests. On one occasion, police even tried to explain away the meaning of chants of "jihad" that had occurred at one Hizb-ut Tahrir protest:

"The individual has not been arrested with the Met saying the word jihad has 'a number of meanings', and specialist counter-terrorism officers had not identified any offences arising from it. Instead, officers spoke to the man to 'discourage any repeat of similar chanting.'"

In London, it is still appeasement time.

Hamas in London

At least four groups with links to Hamas are reportedly behind several of the marches: The Muslim Association of Britain (MAB), the Palestinian Forum for Britain, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, and the Friends of al-Aqsa. "[M]embership of the Muslim

www.gatestoneinstitute.org

 

[Plain Jane]

Germany's Anti-Immigration AfD Party Soars To New Polling High In Saxony, SPD Hits Historic Low As Elections Loom | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Germany's Anti-Immigration AfD Party Soars To New Polling High In Saxony, SPD Hits Historic Low As Elections Loom​

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JAN 03, 2024 - 03:30 AM
Authored by Denes Albert via ReMix News,
The eastern German state of Saxony is presenting new problems for the country’s political establishment, with new polling showing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) reaching a new record high, while the Social Democrats (SPD) would be entirely kicked out of state parliament.


The new poll from the research institute Civey showed the AfD at 37 percent of the vote, rising four points since the last poll four weeks ago. Meanwhile, the SPD would obtain an abysmal 3 percent of the vote. Five years ago, the party still achieved 7.7 percent.

If the left-wing SPD were to achieve such a result, it would mark the first time since the Second World War that the SPD failed to achieve the 5 percent threshold in a federal state, which means it would be entirely removed from parliament. Such a result would place new pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Neueste Civey-Umfrage für #Sachsen. Hat die CDU schon ihren sächsischen Wählern mitgeteilt, dass sie die nächste Regierung in einer Koalition mit "Die Linke" und den Grünen bilden will? @cdusachsen pic.twitter.com/JSWbV7kEGc
— Peter Borbe (@PeterBorbe) January 2, 2024

The Christian Democrats (CDU) scored 32 percent, putting them in second place. The CDU, which currently governs the state with the SPD and Greens, would no longer be able to maintain its coalition. If the elections were held today, and the CDU party maintained its self-declared “firewall” against the AfD, it could then only govern with a coalition of the Left party and Greens.

Such a result would place extreme pressure on the CDU, as the party has also traditionally rejected any alliance with the Left Party.

Saxony will hold its elections in approximately eight months, on Sept. 1, 2024, and there are fears from the German political establishment that some eastern states will be ungovernable without including AfD in coalition governments.




In response to the popularity of the AfD, there are now ongoing attempts to ban the party outright, including efforts from CDU MP Marco Wanderwitz, who was defeated by an AfD candidate in his home district.

“We are dealing with a party that seriously endangers our free democratic basic order and the state as a whole,” which is why “it is high time to ban them,” said Wanderwitz during an appearance on ARD’s public television program last year.

(Video at the link)

 

[Plain Jane]

Thousands of doctors in Britain walk off the job in their longest-ever strike

Thousands of doctors have walked off their jobs in Britain at the start of a six-day strike that's set to be the longest in the history of the state-funded National Health Service.

apnews.com

Thousands of doctors in Britain walk off the job in their longest-ever strike

1 of 3 |
Junior doctors and members of the British Medical Association (BMA) demonstrate outside St Thomas’ Hospital, London, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024, as they take to picket lines for six days. Doctors in the early stages of their careers in England have started a 72-hour strike in their long-running dispute over pay levels. (Jonathan Brady/PA via AP)
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BY JILL LAWLESS
Updated 11:13 AM EST, January 3, 2024
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LONDON (AP) — Patients faced canceled treatments after thousands of British doctors walked off the job on Wednesday, the start of a six-day strike over pay that was set to be the longest in the history of the state-funded National Health Service.

Managers said tens of thousands of appointments and operations will be postponed because of the walkout across England by junior doctors, those in the first years of their careers. The doctors, who form the backbone of hospital and clinic care, plan to stay off the job until 7 a.m. on Tuesday.

Senior doctors and other medics have been drafted to cover for emergency services, critical care and maternity services.


Julian Hartley, chief executive of heath care managers’ organization NHS Providers, said the strike came at one of the toughest times of the year for the health service, “immediately after the Christmas and New Year period because of the pressures the demands, and of course we’ve got flu, we’ve got COVID.


“So there’s going to be an impact on patients that will be significant,” he said.


Britain has endured a year of rolling strikes across the health sector as staff sought pay rises to offset the soaring cost of living. Unions say wages, especially in the public sector, have fallen in real terms over the past decade, and double-digit inflation in late 2022 and early 2023, fueled by sharply rising food and energy prices, left many workers struggling to pay bills.

The union says newly qualified doctors earn 15.53 pounds ($19.37) an hour — the U.K. minimum wage is just over 10 pounds an hour — though salaries rise rapidly after the first year.

On a picket line outside St. Thomas’ Hospital in central London, 28-year-old Dr. Georgia Blackwell said stress and low pay were driving many doctors to take jobs overseas.


“A lot of doctors are moving to Australia — not just because of the pay, but also the work-life balance is better,” she said.
The walkouts have strained the already stretched health service still struggling to recover from backlogs created by the coronavirus pandemic.

Health Secretary Victoria Atkins said the strikes were having “a serious impact on patients,” with more than 1.2 million appointments rescheduled in the months since the wave of industrial action began.

The impact is difficult to quantify. Some claim that delays in testing and treatment due to the strikes may lie behind an increase in excess deaths in the U.K., which were at their highest in 2023 since the pandemic year of 2020.

There is little firm evidence of a link, however, with factors including COVID-19 and an aging population contributing to an increase in deaths in the U.K. and other countries.


Nurses, ambulance crews and senior doctors have reached pay deals with the government, but the union representing junior doctors has held out, and negotiations broke down late last year.

The government says it won’t hold further talks unless doctors call off the strike, while the medics’ union, the British Medical Association, says it won’t negotiate unless it receives a “credible” pay offer.

The government gave the doctors an 8.8% pay raise last year, but the union says it is not enough because junior doctors’ pay has been cut by more than a quarter since 2008.

“The notion that we’re hellbent on calling strikes and all we want to do is call strikes is not what we want,” said Dr. Vivek Trivedi, co-chair of the British Medical Association’s Junior Doctors Committee. “What we want is to negotiate an offer we can put to our members and for our members to accept it.”

 

[Plain Jane]

Serbia's army proposes bringing back the draft as tensions continue to rise in the Balkans

Serbia's military wants to reintroduce obligatory military service as tensions continue to rise in the Balkans.

apnews.com

Serbia’s army proposes bringing back the draft as tensions continue to rise in the Balkans​

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FILE - Serbian Army soldiers perform during a military parade at the military airport Batajnica, near Belgrade, Serbia, on Oct. 19, 2019. Serbia looks set to reintroduce the obligatory military service for its young citizens, the army command said Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024 in a move that comes amid rising tensions in the Balkans. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic, File)
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BY DUSAN STOJANOVIC
Updated 7:47 AM EST, January 4, 2024
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BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) — Serbia should reintroduce compulsory military service, the defense ministry said Thursday, as tensions continue to escalate in the Balkans.

The ministry said in a statement that the proposal for service of up to four months is made “in order to increase the defense capabilities of the Serbian Armed Forces, through the rejuvenation and improvement in the training of the active and reserve forces.”

It said the proposal by the Serbian Armed Forces General Staff comes after “a detailed consideration of the general security situation and current challenges faced by the Republic of Serbia as a militarily neutral country.”

It added that the proposal was forwarded to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, for his consideration. It did not specify the age span of the potential draftees.

Serbia suspended mandatory military service in 2011 amid the push to professionalize the armed forces. But the country now appears close to bringing back the draft after a long campaign in favor of it, despite concerns that the government may struggle to foot the bill for such a massive recruitment.


Tensions have been high in the Balkans that went through bloody breakup of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Although formally neutral, the Serbian army has maintained close ties to Russia from where it has been purchasing most of its arms, including fighter jets and tanks.

Although formally seeking European Union membership, Serbia has refused to introduce sanctions against Russia for its aggression on Ukraine.

Tensions have revolved primarily around Serbia’s former province of Kosovo which declared independence in 2008, something that Serbia and allies Russia and China do not recognize. Belgrade has raised its forces’ combat readiness on the border with Kosovo several times over the past several months.

Serbia has also maintained cordial relations with NATO whose peacekeeping troops have been stationed in Kosovo’s since 1999 when the Western military alliance intervened to stop Belgrade’s bloody crackdown against Kosovo Albanian separatists.

Another volatile region is Bosnia where a Bosnian Serb separatist leader has been threatening to declare the Serb-controlled half of Bosnia independent and to unite it with neighboring Serbia.

 

[Plain Jane]

Farmers prevent Germany's vice chancellor leaving a ferry in a protest that draws condemnation

A group of farmers prevented Germany’s vice chancellor from disembarking a ferry hours after the government partially climbed down on cost-saving plans that had infuriated the agricultural sector.

apnews.com

Farmers prevent Germany’s vice chancellor leaving a ferry in a protest that draws condemnation​

FILE - Robert Habeck, German Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action makes a phone call at the chancellery in Berlin, Germany, on Nov. 22, 2023. A group of farmers prevented Germany’s vice chancellor disembarking from a ferry hours after the government partially climbed down on cost-saving plans that infuriated the agricultural sector, a protest that drew condemnation from government and opposition figures. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Read More
BY GEIR MOULSON
Updated 5:27 AM EST, January 5, 2024

BERLIN (AP) — A group of farmers prevented Germany’s vice chancellor from disembarking a ferry, hours after the government partially climbed down on cost-saving plans that had infuriated the agricultural sector. The protest drew condemnation from both government and opposition figures.

Farmers headed to a jetty in Schluettsiel on the North Sea coast Thursday afternoon ahead of the arrival of the ferry carrying Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck following calls on social media for a protest, police said Friday. Habeck had been on a personal trip to the small island of Hooge.

Between 250 and 300 people gathered to demonstrate. Police said it wasn’t possible to arrange a dialogue between Habeck and organizers in the tense situation, so the ferry departed again. Up to 30 demonstrators tried to board the vessel, but were held back by police using pepper spray.


Habeck, a member of the environmentalist Green party who is also economy and climate minister, was able to reach the mainland during the night.

Chancellor OIaf Scholz’s unpopular government angered farmers in December by announcing plans to cut agricultural subsidies as part of a package to fill a 17-billion-euro ($18.6-billion) hole in the 2024 budget. Farmers staged a protest with tractors in Berlin and called for more demonstrations next week.



On Thursday, the government announced a partial about-turn. It said it would retain an exemption from car tax for farming vehicles and would stagger planned reductions in tax breaks for diesel used in agriculture.

The German Farmers Association quickly said that the change didn’t go far enough. It said it was still demanding that both proposals be reversed and it would stick to its planned protests.

Scholz’s spokesperson, Steffen Hebestreit, wrote on social platform X, formerly Twitter, that the ferry blockade “is shameful and violates the rules” of democratic society. Justice Minister Marco Buschmann wrote that “violence against people or objects has no place in the political argument! This discredits the cause of many farmers who demonstrate peacefully.”

“I share farmers’ concerns, but this transgression is absolutely unacceptable,” Hendrik Wüst, the governor of North Rhine-Westphalia state and a member of Germany’s main conservative opposition bloc, wrote on X. “It damages the farmers’ justified cause and must have consequences.”

German Farmers Association President Joachim Rukwied said in a statement Friday that “blockades of this kind are a no-go.” He added that “personal attacks, abuse, threats, coercion or violence are just not right,” and that his association respects politicians’ privacy.

Habeck said he regretted that it hadn’t been possible to speak to the farmers.

“What gives me reason for thought and concern is that the mood in the country is getting so heated,” Habeck said in a statement.

The budget revamp that included the disputed cuts was necessary after Germany’s highest court annulled an earlier decision to repurpose 60 billion euros (almost $66 billion) originally meant to cushion the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic for measures to help combat climate change and modernize the country. The maneuver fell afoul of Germany’s strict self-imposed limits on running up debt.

 

[Plain Jane]

Judges in England and Wales are given cautious approval to use AI in writing legal opinions

Judges in England and Wales have been given approval to use artificial intelligence to help writing legal opinions.

apnews.com

Judges in England and Wales are given cautious approval to use AI in writing legal opinions

Judges in England and Wales are given cautious approval to use AI in writing legal opinions​

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FILE - Judges walk into Parliament after a Service at Westminster Abbey for the opening of the new legal year in London, Friday, Oct. 1, 2021. Judges in England and Wales have been given approval to use artificial intelligence to help writing legal opinions. The judiciary issued its first guidance last month on the use of AI. The step puts the courts at the forefront of legal systems grappling with how to regulate AI. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)
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BY BRIAN MELLEY
Updated 12:04 AM EST, January 8, 2024
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LONDON (AP) — England’s 1,000-year-old legal system — still steeped in traditions that include wearing wigs and robes — has taken a cautious step into the future by giving judges permission to use artificial intelligence to help produce rulings.

The Courts and Tribunals Judiciary last month said AI could help write opinions but stressed it shouldn’t be used for research or legal analyses because the technology can fabricate information and provide misleading, inaccurate and biased information.

“Judges do not need to shun the careful use of AI,” said Master of the Rolls Geoffrey Vos, the second-highest ranking judge in England and Wales. “But they must ensure that they protect confidence and take full personal responsibility for everything they produce.”

At a time when scholars and legal experts are pondering a future when AI could replace lawyers, help select jurors or even decide cases, the approach spelled out Dec. 11 by the judiciary is restrained. But for a profession slow to embrace technological change, it’s a proactive step as government and industry — and society in general — react to a rapidly advancing technology alternately portrayed as a panacea and a menace.

“There’s a vigorous public debate right now about whether and how to regulate artificial intelligence,” said Ryan Abbott, a law professor at the University of Surrey and author of “The Reasonable Robot: Artificial Intelligence and the Law.”


“AI and the judiciary is something people are uniquely concerned about, and it’s somewhere where we are particularly cautious about keeping humans in the loop,” he said. “So I do think AI may be slower disrupting judicial activity than it is in other areas and we’ll proceed more cautiously there.”

Abbott and other legal experts applauded the judiciary for addressing the latest iterations of AI and said the guidance would be widely viewed by courts and jurists around the world who are eager to use AI or anxious about what it might bring.

In taking what was described as an initial step, England and Wales moved toward the forefront of courts addressing AI, though it’s not the first such guidance.

Five years ago, the European Commission for the Efficiency of Justice of the Council of Europe issued an ethical charter on the use of AI in court systems. While that document is not up to date with the latest technology, it did address core principles such as accountability and risk mitigation that judges should abide by, said Giulia Gentile, a lecturer at Essex Law School who studies the use of AI in legal and justice systems.

Although U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts addressed the pros and cons of artificial intelligence in his annual report, the federal court system in America has not yet established guidance on AI, and state and county courts are too fragmented for a universal approach. But individual courts and judges at the federal and local levels have set their own rules, said Cary Coglianese, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

“It is certainly one of the first, if not the first, published set of AI-related guidelines in the English language that applies broadly and is directed to judges and their staffs,” Coglianese said of the guidance for England and Wales. “I suspect that many, many judges have internally cautioned their staffs about how existing policies of confidentiality and use of the internet apply to the public-facing portals that offer ChatGPT and other such services.”

The guidance shows the courts’ acceptance of the technology, but not a full embrace, Gentile said. She was critical of a section that said judges don’t have to disclose their use of the technology and questioned why there was no accountability mechanism.

“I think that this is certainly a useful document, but it will be very interesting to see how this could be enforced,” Gentile said. “There is no specific indication of how this document would work in practice. Who will oversee compliance with this document? What are the sanctions? Or maybe there are no sanctions. If there are no sanctions, then what can we do about this?”

In its effort to maintain the court’s integrity while moving forward, the guidance is rife with warnings about the limitations of the technology and possible problems if a user is unaware of how it works.

At the top of the list is an admonition about chatbots, such as ChatGPT, the conversational tool that exploded into public view last year and has generated the most buzz over the technology because of its ability to swiftly compose everything from term papers to songs to marketing materials.

The pitfalls of the technology in court are already infamous after two New York lawyers relied on ChatGPT to write a legal brief that quoted fictional cases. The two were fined by an angry judge who called the work they had signed off on “legal gibberish.”

Because chatbots have the ability to remember questions they are asked and retain other information they are provided, judges in England and Wales were told not to disclose anything private or confidential.

“Do not enter any information into a public AI chatbot that is not already in the public domain,” the guidance said. “Any information that you input into a public AI chatbot should be seen as being published to all the world.”

Other warnings include being aware that much of the legal material that AI systems have been trained on comes from the internet and is often based largely on U.S. law.

But jurists who have large caseloads and routinely write decisions dozens — even hundreds — of pages long can use AI as a secondary tool, particularly when writing background material or summarizing information they already know, the courts said.

In addition to using the technology for emails or presentations, judges were told they could use it to quickly locate material they are familiar with but don’t have within reach. But it shouldn’t be used for finding new information that can’t independently be verified, and it is not yet capable of providing convincing analysis or reasoning, the courts said.

Appeals Court Justice Colin Birss recently praised how ChatGPT helped him write a paragraph in a ruling in an area of law he knew well.

“I asked ChatGPT can you give me a summary of this area of law, and it gave me a paragraph,” he told The Law Society. “I know what the answer is because I was about to write a paragraph that said that, but it did it for me and I put it in my judgment. It’s there and it’s jolly useful.”

 

[Plain Jane]

Gabriel Attal is France's youngest-ever prime minister at age 34 and the first who is openly gay

Attal rose to prominence as the government spokesman and education minister. His predecessor Elisabeth Borne resigned following recent political turmoil over an immigration law.

apnews.com

Gabriel Attal is France’s youngest-ever and first openly gay prime minister​

France saw its youngest-ever prime minister and first openly gay one named Tuesday as President Emmanuel Macron seeks a fresh start for the rest of his term amid growing political pressure from the far right. The Associated Press’ Thomason Adamson reports. (Jan. 9)
Photos
4
BY SYLVIE CORBET
Updated 9:58 AM EST, January 9, 2024
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PARIS (AP) — France saw its youngest-ever prime minister and first openly gay one named Tuesday as President Emmanuel Macron seeks a fresh start for the rest of his term amid growing political pressure from the far right.

Gabriel Attal, 34, rose to prominence as the government spokesperson then education minister and had polled as the most popular minister in the outgoing government.

His predecessor Elisabeth Borne resigned Monday following political turmoil over an immigration law that strengthens the government’s ability to deport foreigners.


Macron will work with Attal to name a new government in the coming days, though some key ministers are expected to stay on.

‘’I know I can count on your energy and your commitment,’’ Macron posted on X in a message to Attal. The president made a reference to Attal reviving the ‘’spirit of 2017,’’ when Macron shook up politics and shot to a surprise victory as France’s youngest-ever president on a pro-business centrist platform aimed at reviving one of the world’s biggest economies.


During the handover ceremony, Attal said: “I could read and hear it: the youngest president of the Republic in history appoints the youngest prime minister in history. I want to see it only as the symbol of boldness and movement. It is also, and perhaps above all, a symbol of confidence in young people.”

Attal said his goals include making security an “absolute priority” and promoting values of “authority and respect of others.” He also vowed to strengthen public services including schools and the health system and push for “better controlling immigration.”


Macron, 46, has shifted rightward on security and migration issues since his election, notably as far-right rival Marine Le Pen and her anti-immigration, anti-Islam National Rally have gained political influence.

The president’s second term lasts until 2027, and he is constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term. Political observers have suggested that Macron, a staunch supporter of European integration, wants his new government to prepare for June’s European Union elections, where far-right, anti-EU populists are expected to increase their influence.

Critics from both left and right took aim at Attal for his limited experience, his Paris upbringing seen as out of touch with people struggling in the provinces, and his loyalty to the president.

Le Pen posted on X: “What can the French expect from this 4th prime minister and 5th government in 7 years (under Macron)? Nothing,” calling on voters instead to choose her party in the European elections.

In a statement, Eric Ciotti, head of the conservative party The Republicans, said, “France urgently needs action: it needs a different approach.” The Republicans would remain a “responsible opposition” to the centrist government, he added.

The founder of the hard-left France Unbowed party, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, writing on X, mocked Attal for “returning to his position as spokesman. The function of prime minister is disappearing. The presidential monarch alone rules his court.”

Under the French political system, the prime minister is appointed by the president, accountable to the parliament and is in charge of implementing domestic policy, notably economic measures. The president holds substantial powers over foreign policy and European affairs and is the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces.

Attal, a former member of the Socialist Party, joined Macron’s newly created political movement in 2016 and was spokesperson from 2020 to 2022, a job that made him well-known to the French public. He was then named budget minister before being appointed in July as education minister, one of the most prestigious positions in government.

Attal quickly announced a ban on long robes in classrooms that took effect with the new school year in September, saying the garments worn mainly by Muslims were testing secularism in the schools.

He also launched a plan to experiment with uniforms in some public schools, as part of efforts to move the focus away from clothes and reduce school bullying.


Attal recently detailed on national television TF1 how he suffered bullying at middle school, including homophobic harassment.
Attal will face the same obstacle as his predecessor: Macron’s centrists lost their majority in parliament last year, forcing the government into political maneuvering and using special constitutional powers to be able to pass laws.

The tough negotiations over the immigration bill and heated parliament debate raised questions over the ability of Borne’s government to pass major legislation.

Borne also faced mass protests last year, often marred by violence, against a law to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64, and days of riots across France triggered by the deadly police shooting of a teen.

Borne left office saying she’s proud of the work done over the last 20 months that allowed her government “to pass the budget, the pension reform, the immigration law and more than 50 other texts designed to meet the challenges faced by our country.”

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, who championed the immigration bill, said he was ready to continue his work at the head of the country’s police forces especially as the Paris Olympics are to start in less than 200 days, with major security issues at stake.

___​

Associated Press writer Angela Charlton in Paris contributed.


See this thread also:

INTL - French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne resigns

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne resigns: presidency AFP January 8, 2024 12:08 pm

www.timebomb2000.com

 

[Plain Jane]

Will Orbán Become 'Emperor' Of Europe? Brussels Fears Scenario Where He Controls EU Council Presidency | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Will Orbán Become 'Emperor' Of Europe? Brussels Fears Scenario Where He Controls EU Council Presidency​

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JAN 10, 2024 - 02:00 AM
Via Remix News,
European Council President Charles Michel has confirmed that he will stand in the European Parliament elections.

If elected, the presidency would remain vacant, and under the current rules, the member state holding the rotating presidency — Hungary after the elections — would chair the meetings.


European Council President Charles Michel, left, speaks with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during a roundtable meeting at an EU summit in Brussels, Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Olivier Matthys)

Charles Michel has confirmed to several Belgian newspapers that he will run in the European Parliament elections. This is the first time that the incumbent president of the European Council has stood as a candidate in an EP election.

The position was only created in 2009, when the Lisbon Treaty introduced it to the European Union. The role of a permanent president was introduced precisely to ensure “continuity” in the EU’s ambitions.

The main criticisms, however, are that it undermines diversity and equal representation among member states — even though it was created to ensure these very goals.

“That scenario — an unchecked Orbán ruling the Council roost for the six months directly after the 2024 European election — is one most of the other 26 leaders of EU countries would be desperate to avoid, given escalating tensions between them and Orbán, for example over the Union’s support for Ukraine and Hungary’s rule-of-law infractions,” Politico writes.

The president of the European Council is elected by the European Council by a qualified majority. The next president will be elected in June, during the next institutional term, together with other appointments to senior posts.


The rules of procedure of the European Council provide that, if the term of office of the president expires, he or she will be replaced, if necessary in the absence of a successor, by the member of the European Council representing the member state holding the six-monthly Council presidency.

However, at the end of an information pack sent to journalists by the Council, it was stressed that these rules can be amended by a simple majority.

So, if the fear of Viktor Orbán strikes a chord, the whole procedure could be changed.

 

[Plain Jane]

US Flies F-16 Fighter Jets Over Bosnia In Threat To Serbs Who Want Secession | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

US Flies F-16 Fighter Jets Over Bosnia In Threat To Serbs Who Want Secession​

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JAN 10, 2024 - 03:30 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
The US flew two F-16 fighter jets over Bosnia and Herzegovina on Monday as a show of force meant as a threat to Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodnik, who wants independence for the Serb-majority area of the country he controls.

Dodnik is the president of the Republika Srpska, a semi-autonomous Serb republic within the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina that’s separate from the other part of the country that’s mainly populated by Bosniak Muslims and Croats, known as the Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Milorad Dodik, via AP
The boundaries were set by the 1995 Dayton Accords, which were negotiated following a US and NATO intervention against the Serbs in the ethnic conflict in the area.

The US Embassy in Sarajevo said the F-16 fighter jets flew over Bosnia to show US support for the country’s "territorial integrity."
"This bilateral training is an example of advanced military-to-military cooperation that contributes to peace and security in the Western Balkans as well as demonstrates the United States’ commitment to ensuring the territorial integrity of BiH (Bosnia-Herzegovina) in the face of anti-Dayton and secessionist activity," the statement said, according to The Associated Press.

"The United States has underscored that the BiH (Bosnia-Herzegovina) Constitution provides no right of secession, and it will act if anyone tries to change this basic element," the statement added.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1744403689974935912

View: https://twitter.com/USEmbassySJJ/status/1744403689974935912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1744403689974935912%7Ctwgr%5Eefc87a9c1160a662e0dd28a1e5db783701524ccf%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fus-flies-f-16-fighter-jets-over-bosnia-threat-serbs-who-want-secession




Dodnik recently told AP that he will continue to pursue Serb interests despite threats from the US. "I am not irrational, I know that America’s response will be to use force … but I have no reason to be frightened by that into sacrificing (Serb) national interests," he said.


He further said that if there's international intervention backing Bosnian institutions then "in the next stage, we will be forced by their reaction to declare full independence" of Serb-controlled regions of Bosnia.



James O’Brien, the US assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, recently threatened that the US will "act" if anyone threatens the terms of the Dayton Accords and said nobody in the country has the right to "secession."

 

[Plain Jane]

Denmark will proclaim a new king as Queen Margrethe signs historic abdication

Thousands of people will gather in downtown Copenhagen on Sunday to witness a historic moment in one of the world’s oldest monarchies.

apnews.com

Denmark will proclaim a new king as Queen Margrethe signs historic abdication​

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Thousands of people gathered Sunday in downtown Copenhagen to witness a historic moment in one of the world’s oldest monarchies.

Around 2 p.m. (1300 GMT), Queen Margrethe II will sign her abdication at a meeting with the Danish Cabinet following over five decades of service. About an hour later, her 55-year-old son and crown prince Frederik will be proclaimed king before the people on the balcony of Christiansborg Palace in the heart of the Danish capital. Denmark’s national television stations will do a live broadcast of the event.

Margrethe, 83, will become the first Danish monarch to voluntarily relinquish the throne in nearly 900 years.

Citing health issues, Margrethe announced on New Year’s Eve that she would step down, stunning a nation that had expected her to live out her days on the throne, as is tradition in the Danish monarchy.

Margrethe underwent major back surgery last February and didn’t return to work until April.

Even Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was unaware of the queen’s intentions until right before the announcement. Margrethe had informed Frederik and his younger brother Joachim just three days earlier, the Berlingske newspaper wrote, citing the royal palace.

“The queen has been here and she has been on the throne for more than 50 years. And she is an extremely respected and popular figure, so people hadn’t expected this and they were in shock,” Danish royal expert Thomas Larsen said.

The last time a Danish monarch voluntarily resigned was in 1146 when King Erik III Lam stepped down to enter a monastery. Margrethe will be abdicating on the same day she ascended the throne following the death of her father, King Frederik IX.

Denmark’s monarchy traces its origins to 10th-century Viking king Gorm the Old, making it the oldest in Europe and one of the oldest in the world. Today the royal family’s duties are largely ceremonial.

The abdication will leave Denmark with two queens: Margrethe will keep her title while Frederik’s Australian-born wife will become Queen Mary. Frederik and Mary’s eldest son Christian, 18, will become crown prince and heir to the throne.

People began gathering early Sunday outside parliament, with many swarming the streets of Copenhagen’s main shopping street, the Pedestrian Stroeget, which was decorated with the red and white Danish flags. Several shops hung photos of the Queen and king-to-be. Local media said hundreds were heading to the Danish capital from across the country and others were following the live TV broadcast to witness the monumental event.

City buses were adorned with smaller replicas of the Danish flag as is customary during royal events.

The royal guards’ music band made their daily parade through downtown Copenhagen but wore red jackets, instead of their usual black, to mark major events. People, bundled in warm clothes because of the cold despite it being a sunny day, excitedly waved flags as the band performed.

Copenhagen resident Rene Jensen, wearing a replica of a royal robe and a bejeweled purple crown on his head, said he expects Frederik to be “a king for the nation, representing us everywhere.”

Australians also turned out on the streets of Copenhagen to celebrate one of their own becoming queen.

“I think it’s good that she’s not from royalty and has a normal Australian background. We can relate more to that because she’s from a middle-class background, and we are too,” said Judy Langtree, who made the long journey from Brisbane with her daughter to witness the royal event.

Unlike in the UK, there is no coronation ceremony in Denmark. The prime minister will formally proclaim Frederik king from the balcony of Christiansborg Palace, which houses government offices, Parliament and the Supreme Court as well as the Royal Stables and Royal Reception Rooms.

The new king and queen will leave Christiansborg Palace in a horse-drawn coach and return to the royal residence, Amalienborg, where Margrethe also lives but in a separate building. The royal standard will be lowered on Margrethe’s home and raised on the building where Frederik and Mary live.

Four guns on the Copenhagen harbor will fire three times 27 rounds to mark the succession. In the late afternoon, Copenhagen’s Tivoli Gardens amusement park plans to celebrate the new king and queen with the biggest fireworks show in the park’s 180-year history.

A survey — commissioned by Denmark’s public broadcaster DR — published Friday showed that 79% of the 1,037 people polled by the Epinion polling institute said that they believed Frederik was prepared to take the reigns and 83% said they thought his wife Mary was ready to become queen. The survey margin of error was 3 percentage points, DR said.

___​

Associated Press journalist Aleksandar Furtula in Copenhagen, contributed to this report.

 

[Plain Jane]

French President Macron uses broad news conference to show his leadership hasn't faded

French President Emmanuel Macron has made a point of showing his leadership hasn’t faded in more than two hours of answering questions at a news conference in which he promised a stronger France to face with world’s challenges.

apnews.com

French President Macron uses broad news conference to show his leadership hasn’t faded​

BY SYLVIE CORBET
Updated 12:09 AM EST, January 17, 2024
Share
PARIS (AP) — French President Emmanuel Macron made a point of showing his leadership hasn’t faded in more than two hours of answering questions at a news conference in which he promised a stronger France to face the world’s challenges.

“I still have three years and a half in office,” he said, describing an ambition to both change the daily life of the French and tackle global crises.

Macron’s wide-ranging news conference followed the appointment last week of France’s youngest-ever prime minister.

The 46-year-old centrist president promised “audacity, action, efficiency” in the hopes of strengthening his legacy through a series of reforms, starting with an economic bill meant to boost growth and tax cuts for middle-class households.

He also detailed how he would preserve France’s struggling health system and accelerate changes at schools. He advocated for uniforms in public schools, learning the national anthem at a young age and expanding a two-week training period in high schools to promote French values and encourage youth to give back to the community.

With no majority in parliament, Macron suggested many of the changes could be implemented without passing new laws.

The French president vowed to make France “stronger” to face global crises, announcing plans to deliver more long-range cruise missiles as well as bombs to Ukraine. He also proposed a joint initiative with Qatar to mediate a deal between Israel and Hamas to allow the delivery of medications to around 45 of the more than 100 Israeli hostages held captive in Gaza.

French President Emmanuel Macron listens to a question during his first prime-time news conference to announce his top priorities for the year as he seeks to revitalize his presidency, vowing to focus on “results” despite not having a majority in parliament, Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2024 at the Elysee Palace in Paris. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)
Read More
He also suggested that he’d find ways to work with Donald Trump in the event that he wins another presidency.

Under growing pressure from an emboldened far-right ahead of June’s European elections, he denounced the National Rally as “the party of the lies.” He warned about the “danger zone” as voters across Europe are increasingly choosing the far-right.

We must tackle issues that “make people vote for them,” he said, including fighting unemployment and better controlling immigration.

“Basically, the National Rally has become the party of easy anger,” he added. “Let’s not get used to it.”

Macron also mentioned with irony the many wannabe-candidates for the next presidential election, including far-right leader Marine Le Pen who already said she intends to run again.

“I realize that a lot of people were getting nervous about 2027,” Macron said. “But I also realize that ... a lot can happen in three years and a half.”

He also sought to respond to the controversy over two newly appointed ministers.

Macron suggested Education Minister Amélie Oudéa-Castéra should remain in office despite facing strong criticism from teachers’ unions. Oudéa-Castéra said last week she preferred to send her children to a private Catholic school in Paris.

“The minister made ill-chosen public comments. She apologized and she was right to (apologize),” Macron said. “The minister will succeed in working with teachers.”

About Culture Minister Rachida Dati, who has been named in a 2021 corruption-related preliminary charges, Macron argued the justice system is independent and she has the right to the “presumption of innocence.”

Macron acknowledged only one “regret” in response to a question about his apparent siding with actor Gérard Depardieu, who is facing sexual misconduct allegations, in televised remarks last month.

“I haven’t said enough how important it is for women who are victims of abuse to speak out, and how crucial this fight is to me,” he said, while standing by his defense of the presumption of innocence of Depardieu.

 

[northern watch]

NATO 'alarm bell' about the possibility of a new war: What the head of the Military Committee said​

"NATO to transform its model of warfare"​

17/01/2024 - 16:49
War News 24 / 7



NATO's top military official urged public and private actors in the West on Tuesday to prepare for an era in which anything can happen at any time, including war.

"We need NATO to transform its model of combat operations," the head of the alliance's Military Committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, said at the start of a two-day meeting of member countries' chiefs of staff in Brussels.

He noted that, in the past, NATO governments and military forces lived in an era in which everything was in abundance, predictable, controllable and focused on efficiency.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, they will have to adapt their thinking to "an era in which anything can happen at any time, a time in which we need to expect the unexpected, a time in which we need to focus on effectiveness in order to be fully effective," he said.

His comments come at a time when military aid is either delayed or constrained by political disagreements in the United States and the European Union. Bauer pledged that NATO would continue to provide assistance to Ukraine.

"Ukraine should have our support every day to come, because the outcome of this war will determine the fate of the world," he said.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Western hesitations in supporting Kyiv and fears of an escalation in the war with Russia could prolong hostilities for years.

Last week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rebuked allies in the European Union for what he called insufficient support for Kiev and urged them to step up efforts. At the same time, he said he was confident the bloc would agree to the proposed €50 billion aid package. euro to Kiev at the upcoming extraordinary summit to be held on 1 February. The EU failed to reach an agreement at the December summit due to Hungary's opposition.

«Καμπανάκι κινδύνου» από το NATO για το ενδεχόμενο ενός νέου πολέμου: Τί

Ανώτατος στρατιωτικός αξιωματούχος του NATO κάλεσε σήμερα τους δημόσιους και ιδιωτικούς δρώντες στη Δύση να ετοιμαστούν για μια εποχή στην

warnews247.gr

 

[northern watch]

 

[northern watch]

Islam Overtaking Europe?​

by Drieu Godefridi
The Gatestone Institute
January 17, 2024 at 5:00 am

• What seems to have created the current chaos is the well-meaning but calamitously unthinking jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), combined with the disastrous "Wir schaffen das" ("We can manage this") of Germany's then Chancellor, Angela Merkel. The ECHR's extreme interpretation of "open borders" hinders the development of a workable asylum policy.
• Immigration is not a natural disaster that befalls Europe, like a plague of locusts or a drought. The migration chaos we are experiencing in Europe is purely a human catastrophe, caused by dreamy policies and faceless judges who are accountable to no one.
• [F]urther mass influxes of migrants, such as many countries are experiencing, can be stopped the day after tomorrow by neutralizing the ECHR -- simply by opting out of it.
• To think now that Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin, Antwerp will inevitably become Islamic is to promise victory in advance. It is defeatist thinking, which Winston Churchill, in his six-volume series, The Second World War, described as more threatening than all the Nazi divisions put together.
• A moratorium on immigration might be a good place to start.

What seems to have created the current chaos is the well-meaning but calamitously unthinking jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), combined with the disastrous "Wir schaffen das" ("We can manage this") of Germany's then Chancellor, Angela Merkel. The ECHR's extreme interpretation of "open borders" hinders the development of a workable asylum policy. Pictured: An inside view of the ECHR, in Strasbourg, France. (Photo by Frederick Florin/AFP via Getty Images)

In New York, as in the Belgian parliament, you can meet more and more people who are convinced that the Islamization of Brussels -- and London and other capitals, they often add -- is now inevitable and only a matter of time.

The growth of the Muslim population in Brussels has been both enormous and meteoric. Over the past 50 years, the number of Muslims has grown steadily, and given the erasure of Europe's borders, thanks to the 1985 Schengen Agreement, there seems to be no end in sight.

The figures

As many countries in Europe do not designate people by race or ethnicity, figures are not easy to establish. If we want to remain scientific and factual, it is not by noting the popularity of the first name Mohamed. The last reliable study on the number of Muslims, unfortunately, was done by Prof Jan Hertogen, dates from 2015/2016, and has been adopted by the US State Department. According to that study, the percentage of Muslims in Brussels in 2015 was 24% of the population.

More recent figures have been provided by the Pew Research Center, but only for Belgium as a whole, without details by city. In another, 2016 poll, 29% of Brussels residents claimed to be Muslim. Looking at the growth curve, we can estimate that the percentage of Muslims now in Brussels is likely to be slightly beyond 30%.

These figures obviously are not evidence of a Muslim majority in Brussels – or anything near it – at least for now – although birth rates still remain higher for Muslims than for "native" Belgian women.

Immigration

So far, Brussels is not predominantly Muslim. Immigration is not, like gravity, an immutable fact. Across Europe, with the exception of Wallonia, we are witnessing an awakening of the population and the rise to power of parties and personalities seeking zero immigration, or at least a moratorium on immigration.

Despite the claims of many that in Europe, immigration is inevitable, there may be nothing necessarily inevitable about it.

What seems to have created the current chaos is the well-meaning but calamitously unthinking jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), combined with the disastrous "Wir schaffen das" ("We can manage this") of Germany's then Chancellor, Angela Merkel. The ECHR's extreme interpretation of "open borders" hinders the development of a workable asylum policy.

In 2012, the ECHR introduced the "Hirsi ruling," named after the legal case of Hirsi Jamaa and Others v. Italy. This ruling asserts that European states are legally obligated to rescue migrants in the Mediterranean Sea, even if they are just 200 meters from the Libyan coast, and transport them to a European port, allowing these individuals to claim refugee status.

When the Italian Navy intercepted illegal migrants in the Mediterranean and returned them to Libya, the ECHR not only condemned Italy for what it considered an "evident" violation of human rights but also required the Italians to pay 15,000 euros ($17,000 at the time) to each of these illegal migrants as compensation for "moral damage." This amount is equivalent to more than 10 years of income in the home countries of Mr. Hirsi Jamaa and his companions, Somalia and Eritrea, and most probably the reason they wanted to come to Europe in the first place. (In 2016, Somalia's GDP per capita was estimated at $400, and Eritrea's at $1,300.)

The Hirsi ruling became widely known, particularly in Africa, leading many to understand that if they could just reach the Mediterranean, European navies would now be obligated to transport them directly to Europe. Before the Hirsi ruling, individuals attempting to reach European shores each year faced tragic deaths at sea – sometimes in the hundreds. After Hirsi, the goal of many migrants shifted to being intercepted and rescued. Consequently, literally millions of people now make this journey, often with the assistance of non-governmental organizations, such as Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), whose activists wait for boats near the Libyan coast.

Immigration is not a natural disaster that befalls Europe, like a plague of locusts or a drought. The migration chaos we are experiencing in Europe is purely a human catastrophe, caused by dreamy policies and faceless judges who are accountable to no one.

The migrants already here are here, but further mass influxes of migrants, such as many countries are experiencing, can be stopped the day after tomorrow by neutralising the ECHR -- simply by opting out of it. It will be interesting to see what Dutch MP Geert Wilders brings to the Netherlands. He may have watered down his most extreme views, but still might want to end the flow of migrants to his beautiful country. In any event, leaving the ECHR is at least one option.

The European Union, by the way, and the Council of Europe -- on which the European Court of Human Rights depends -- are two distinct international organizations. The Netherlands could leave the Council of Europe, if they wished, while remaining a member of the EU.

The temptation to prejudge

The massive settlement of Muslim populations in Europe -- 57 million people by 2050, as projected by the Pew Research Center -- is being experienced dramatically by attacks on civilians, harassment of civilians, no-go-zones with inhabitants who appear not to wish to assimilate, and outspoken concern that a significant proportion of the newcomers are, or are becoming, radicalized.

This new sentiment in Europe could be seen long before the current Israel-Hamas war, with the proselytization of these new Europeans by programs from the Middle East (such as here and here). In Belgium, anti-Semitic prejudice is reportedly more widespread among Muslims. Pro-Palestinian marches since October 7 have all too often been the pretext for raw anti-Semitic slogans not seen since Nazi rallies in the 1930s and 1940s. In France, sadly, the vast majority of anti-Semitic acts and attacks have apparently been committed by Muslims.

In London, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, to his great credit, condemned the "Hamas sympathisers" who joined these demonstrations and were "singing antisemitic chants and brandishing pro-Hamas signs and clothing".

We all, however, must guard against the temptation to oversimplify and prejudge – a tendency that appears widespread. Although Islam is a religion, with laws and a doctrine like other religions, one cannot, however, leave it in the same way as one might leave socialism, environmentalism or Catholicism. In Islamic law, apostasy can be punishable by death.

Additionally, many Muslims in Europe feel an intensity about Islam that we do not feel about our Judeo-Christian tradition. Often, we even seem -- dangerously -- to take it for granted and risk throwing it away. Many Muslims, conversely, appear to take for granted that wherever they are should be Islamic. To many Muslims, Islam appears to be "very important" in their life. To many in the West, religion is not necessarily "very important," but often somewhere in the periphery, except perhaps during the high holidays. Many Muslims also seem have the conviction, that the world should bend to Islam, not the other way around.

If, then, we assume Islam is an immovable and timeless concept that disregards all other factors and dominates all considerations, we are just reaffirming the mindset of Islamists. Perhaps it is important to remember that over time, nothing remains unchangeable.

To think now that Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin, Antwerp will inevitably become Islamic is to promise victory in advance. It is defeatist thinking, which Winston Churchill, in his six-volume series, The Second World War, describedas more threatening than all the Nazi divisions put together.

Tolerating the representatives of Islamist terrorism

One of the elements that lends credence to the idea of an "Islamist Brussels" -- or anyplace-- is the astonishing tolerance shown by the Belgian authorities towards representatives and individuals linked to Islamist terrorist organisations. For example, The London Times recently revealed:

"A British man has been accused by the German authorities of being Hamas's key liaison in Europe with numerous alleged links to the terrorist organisation... Der Spiegel, a German news magazine, names Al-Zeer as the 'person responsible for Hamas' in Germany and across Europe."

Al-Zeer has an office in Brussels that enables him to directly monitor events at the European Commission. According to a December 2023 report by 7sur7, Al-Zeer is the "real boss" of a non-profit association called EUPAC, which describes itself as the "European Palestinian Council for Political Relations".

According to Laatste Nieuws, Al-Zeer, aged 61, is from Bethlehem, and fled to Kuwait with his family at the age of six during Israel's Six Day War. In the 1990s, he settled in Britain, becoming an influential Palestinian activist, already, at the time, linked to Hamas.

According to The Times, in 2009, in an interview with Felesteen, a newspaper affiliated with Hamas, he spoke about a relative who had joined the armed wing of Hamas, the Ezzedin Al-Qassam Brigades.

In London, Al-Zeer was reportedly one of the founders of the Palestinian Return Centre (PRC), a pressure group set up in 1996 to defend the "right of return" of all refugees to "Palestine." In 2018, Germany's internal security agency, Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, described the PRC as a Hamas front organisation and a "central propaganda organisation for Hamas in Europe", used by Hamas and its supporters in Germany and Europe for their activities. A photograph dating from 2008 shows Al-Zeer alongside Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, and another picture from 2015 shows him alongside Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

According to The Daily Mail:

"A file from the German interior ministry, first reported by magazine Der Spiegel, named Al-Zeer as the 'person responsible for Hamas' in Germany and across Europe."

EUPAC has other members close to Hamas, including the second and third members of its organisational chart — Mazen Kahel and Omar Faris — who have held senior positions in the PRC. One of them Mazen Kahel was also a co-founder of the Council for Euro-Palestinian Relations, a non-profit organisation based in Brussels, founded in 2010 and dissolved in 2016, but was on the European Union's official list of pressure groups.

EUPAC, which also appears to be dedicated to lobbying, has its official headquarters on Place Robert Schuman in Brussels, overlooking the European Commission's Berlaymont building -- a perfect symbol of the Belgian authorities' appalling laxity.

Islam and Islamism as a totalitarian ideology can be defeated. With its policy of open borders, Europe has taken the path of submission. The freedom of movement of Hamas's "key liaison" in Europe is the ultimate symptom of this submission. A moratorium on immigration might be a good place to start.

Islam Overtaking Europe?

What seems to have created the current chaos is the well-meaning but calamitously unthinking jurisprudence of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), combined with the disastrous "Wir schaffen das" ("We can manage this") of Germany's then Chancellor,

www.gatestoneinstitute.org

 

[Plain Jane]

Immigration issue challenges delicate talks to form new Dutch government

Delicate talks to create a new Dutch government around anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders suffered a setback when a lingering immigration issue divided the parties involved in brokering a coalition.

apnews.com

Immigration issue challenges delicate talks to form new Dutch government​

1 of 2 |
FILE - Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom, known as PVV, casts his ballot in The Hague, Netherlands, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023. Voters across the Netherlands have veered far to the right politically. The shift has been triggered by economic and cultural anxieties that have whipped up fears about immigrants. It’s an extreme example of a trend being felt across the continent that could tilt the outcome of this year’s European Union parliamentary election. (AP Photo/Mike Corder, File)
Read More

BY MIKE CORDER
Updated 8:07 AM EST, January 17, 2024
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THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Delicate talks to create a new Dutch government around anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders suffered a setback Wednesday when a lingering immigration issue divided the parties involved in brokering a coalition.

“We have a problem,” Wilders told reporters in The Hague, the morning after a decision by senators from a key Dutch political party involved in the coalition talks to back legislation that could force municipalities to house asylum-seekers.

People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) senators threw their support behind the proposal Tuesday night. The lower house of parliament already has approved the plan, known as the “Distribution Law,” that aims to more fairly spread thousands of asylum-seekers around the country. Wilders strongly opposes it.


Wilders’ Party for Freedom, or PVV, won the most seats in the election, putting him in the driving seat to form a new coalition after four previous administrations led by outgoing VVD leader Mark Rutte.


Stock market today: Asian markets track Wall Street’s decline, eroding last year’s gains
Having Wilders in government would reinforce the far right in the European Union, where Giorgia Meloni is already leading the Italian government.


The VVD senators’ decision came despite opposition from the party’s new leader Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius — a former asylum-seeker who is in talks with Wilders and two other party leaders about the contours of a new coalition after Wilders’ Nov. 22 general election victory.

Wilders campaigned on pledges to drastically rein in immigration and he has long been an outspoken critic of the legislation that now looks set to be approved in a Senate vote next week.

Yeşilgöz-Zegerius and the two other leaders involved in the closed-door coalition negotiations also oppose the legislation that was drawn up by a junior minister from Yeşilgöz-Zegerius’ VVD.


The legislation aims to push municipalities across the Netherlands to provide temporary accommodation for asylum seekers who have a strong chance of being granted refugee status.

At the moment, many municipalities refuse to make space available. That has led to a crisis in existing asylum-seeker centers, most notably in the northern town of Ter Apel, where hundreds of new arrivals were forced to sleep outside a reception center in the summer of 2022 because of overcrowding.

Yeşilgöz-Zegerius has said she does not want her party to be in a coalition with Wilders’ PVV, but is willing to support a Wilders-led government. The other two parties involved in the talks are the reformist New Social Contract and the Farmers Citizens Movement. Together, the four parties have a strong majority in the 150-seat lower house of the Dutch parliament.

But both Yeşilgöz-Zegerius and New Social Contract leader Pieter Omtzigt have expressed concerns that some of Wilders’ policies are unconstitutional. In a concession aimed at allaying those fears, Wilders last week withdrew legislation calling for a ban on mosques, Islamic schools and the Quran.

After a morning of talks Wednesday, Yeşilgöz-Zegerius sought to play down the divisions over her senators’ decision.

“Every problem can be solved,” she told reporters, without going into detail of the morning’s discussions.

 

[northern watch]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1748159016562295109

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1748159016562295109


RT: 0.05 minutes

 

[northern watch]

Protests by farmers and others in Germany underline deep frustration with the government​

This week began and ended with the long road in front of Berlin’s landmark Brandenburg Gate thronged by heavy vehicles tooting their horns in protest — farmers on Monday and truckers on Friday

By GEIR MOULSON Associated Press
January 19, 2024, 9:48 AM

Farmers attend a protest in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Jan 15, 2024. This week began and ended with the long road in front of Berlin’s landmark Brandenburg Gate thronged by heavy vehicles tooting their horns in protest — farmers on Monday Jan. 15 and truckers on Friday Jan. 19, 2024. Such demonstrations underline deep frustration in Germany with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, which came to power just over two years ago with a progressive, modernizing agenda but has come to be viewed by many as dysfunctional and incapable. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi, File)

BERLIN -- This week began and ended with the long road in front of Berlin's landmark Brandenburg Gate thronged by heavy vehicles tooting their horns in protest — farmers on Monday and truckers on Friday.

Such demonstrations underline deep frustration in Germany with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government, which came to power just over two years ago with a progressive, modernizing agenda but has come to be viewed by many as dysfunctional and incapable.

It is struggling to juggle multiple crises and reconcile lofty aims, such as transforming Europe's biggest economy to meet climate targets and investing in neglected infrastructure while also meeting Germany's tight self-imposed rules on running up debt.

Scholz acknowledges concerns that go beyond cuts to tax breaks on farmers' diesel fuel.

“I think crises and conflicts are creating overall uncertainty,” he said in a video message last weekend. “Many worry: what will happen next? What will the future bring for me? All this is leading to some expressing this loudly.”

Still, the chancellor himself faces criticism for his management of an unwieldy three-party alliance and poor communication. While his government doesn't appear to be in danger at present and Germany's next parliamentary election isn't due until the fall of 2025, it isn't clear how it can turn around a slump in polls.

The government points to successes including preventing an energy crunch after Russia cut off its gas supplies to Germany.

But all too often, the combination of two center-left parties with a pro-business rival has angered Germans by bickering at length over poorly explained projects that sometimes raise fears of new costs — notably a plan to replace fossil-fuel heating systems with greener alternatives. On top of that comes frustration with inflation over the past two years.

Polls show little faith in Scholz and his government and widespread sympathy for the farmers' protests against cuts to tax breaks on the diesel they use — which stem from the latest major woe to hit the embattled coalition.

A November court ruling struck down a major pillar of the government's financing and left it scrambling to fill a big hole in this year's budget. It had sought to bypass Germany's debt rules by repurposing 60 billion euros ($65.3 billion) originally meant to cushion the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic for measures to help combat climate change and modernize the country.

As part of its plan to fill the gap, coalition leaders said the government would abolish a car tax exemption for farming vehicles and tax breaks on diesel used in agriculture. Amid pushback even from the agriculture minister, it watered that down, saying the car tax exemption would be retained and the cuts in the the tax breaks staggered over three years.

That didn't satisfy Germany's well-organized farmers, who pressed ahead with a week of protests that culminated in Berlin on Monday. And more appear likely.

“Our farmers are disappointed, they are disappointed that they haven't been listened to, and they can't understand why they should be further burdened in European competition,” Joachim Rukwied, the head of the German Farmers' Association, said Friday.

Rukwied said his organization will attempt to win over lawmakers in talks over the next two weeks, but there will be still be smaller-scale “actions” by farmers to press their point.

Other groups facing their own challenges have sympathized with or joined in some farmers' demonstrations. They have included road transport and hospitality associations, the latter facing a hike in value-added tax on eating out from the 7% rate it was reduced to during the pandemic to the full 19%.

Organizers of Friday's demonstration by truck drivers called for an increase in highway tolls for trucks to be reversed and protested against carbon pricing. Germany's levy on carbon dioxide emissions from fuel was increased by more than previously planned this month, another result of the budget crisis.

Critics say Scholz, a self-confident but often taciturn leader, isn't helping with his style.

“Why the chancellor thinks he can convince people through dogged silence is not clear to me,” former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer remarked in an interview with the Augsburger Allgemeine daily, arguing that Scholz “is damaging himself.”

One beneficiary of the sour mood has been the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which has gained over the past year. It is currently second in national polls — behind the main center-right opposition bloc but ahead of the parties in Scholz's coalition. European Parliament elections are scheduled for June, and three state elections in September.

There has been some concern over the far right taking advantage of the demonstrations.

The far right itself has drawn a string of protests this week following a report that extremists recently met to discuss the deportation of millions of immigrants, including some with German citizenship.

“Everyone is called on now to take a clear stand for solidarity, for tolerance, for our democratic Germany,” Scholz said Friday.

Protests by farmers and others in Germany underline deep frustration with the government

This week began and ended with the long road in front of Berlin’s landmark Brandenburg Gate thronged by heavy vehicles tooting their horns in protest — farmers on Monday and truckers on Friday

abcnews.go.com

 

[Plain Jane]

French protesters ask Macron not to sign off on an immigration law with a far-right footprint

Tens of thousands of people marched in the streets of cities across France on Sunday, calling on President Emmanuel Macron not to sign into law a tough new immigration measure they say bears the footprint of the far right and betrays French values.

apnews.com

French protesters ask Macron not to sign off on an immigration law with a far-right footprint​

Updated 1:48 PM EST, January 21, 2024
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PARIS (AP) — Tens of thousands of people marched in the streets of cities across France on Sunday to call on President Emmanuel Macron not to sign into law tough new legislation on immigration that they say bears the footprint of the far right and betrays French values.

According to the Interior Ministry, 75,000 people took part across the country, with 16,000 protesters turning out in Paris. The hard-left CGT union put the number of protesters nationwide at 150,000.
The timing of the protests was critical, coming four days before the Constitutional Council decides on Thursday whether all articles in the law — passed in December — conform with the French Constitution.

The bill strengthens France’s ability to deport foreigners considered undesirable and makes it tougher for foreigners to take advantage of social welfare, among other measures.

The protest was called by 200 figures from various sectors, including the arts and the unions. The law “was written under the dictate of the merchants of hate who dream of imposing on France their project of ‘national preference,’” the signatories of the call to march wrote.

National preference, under which the French, not foreigners, should profit from the riches of the land, has long been the rallying cry of the far-right National Rally party.

Macron backed the law in its tortuous course through parliament, but, in an unusual twist, has said that some articles appear unconstitutional. Le Monde newspaper recently quoted an unnamed Interior Ministry official as saying that “a good dozen” of articles could be struck down by the Constitutional Council.

Some articles of the law make it more difficult to bring family members to France, for instance, an applicant trying to join their spouse will have to show knowledge of the French language. The court is also likely to scrutinize tougher standards for receiving social services and housing or re-establishing a law done away with in 2012 that makes it illegal for a foreigner to be in France without residence papers.

The immigration law reflects what appears to be centrist Macron’s most recent effort to tilt the government to the right, notably ahead of European elections in June with the far right bounding forward in popularity, according to polls.

Also on the horizon is the possibility of a victory in 2027 presidential elections by National Rally leader Marine Le Pen. After two presidential mandates, Macron will not be in the running.

 

[northern watch]

 

[northern watch]

 

[Plain Jane]

Hungary's Orbán says he invited Swedish leader to discuss NATO membership

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has sent a letter to his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, inviting him to Budapest to discuss Sweden’s accession into the NATO military alliance.

apnews.com

Hungary’s Orbán says he invited Swedish leader to discuss NATO membership​

BY JUSTIN SPIKE
Updated 5:01 AM EST, January 23, 2024
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BUDAPEST, Hungary (AP) — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán sent a letter to his Swedish counterpart, Ulf Kristersson, inviting him to Budapest to discuss Sweden’s accession into the NATO military alliance, Orbán wrote Tuesday in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

The invitation comes as Hungary and Turkey remain the only NATO members not to have ratified Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. Admission into NATO requires unanimity among all member countries, but more than a year of delays in Budapest and Ankara have frustrated other allies who want to expand the alliance amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Orbán, a right-wing populist who has been lukewarm in his support for neighboring Ukraine and maintained a friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has long promised that Hungary would not be the last NATO member to ratify Sweden’s bid.

Last month, the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee approved Sweden’s accession protocol, moving the Nordic country one step closer to joining the alliance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lifted his opposition to Sweden’s membership last year in response to efforts by Stockholm to tackle supporters of Kurdish militants and other groups in Sweden that Ankara views as security threats.

Erdogan has also openly linked Sweden’s NATO membership to Ankara’s efforts to purchase U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, and has called on Canada and other NATO allies to lift arms embargoes on Turkey.

While Orbán says his government supports Sweden’s admission into the alliance, he claims that lawmakers from his governing Fidesz party remain unconvinced because of what he called “blatant lies” by Swedish politicians about the condition of Hungary’s democracy.

Neither Orbán nor his senior officials have indicated what kind of redress they require from Stockholm to allay their reservations over Sweden joining the military alliance.

Sweden and Finland abandoned their decades-long neutrality and sought membership in NATO amid heightened security concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Finland became NATO’s 31st member last year after Hungary and Turkey were the last two countries to ratify its bid.

Unless an emergency session of Hungary’s parliament is called to debate the matter, its next scheduled assembly is expected on Feb. 26.

 

[Plain Jane]

7 In 10 French Citizens Opposed To Solving Demographic Decline With Immigration | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

7 In 10 French Citizens Opposed To Solving Demographic Decline With Immigration​

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JAN 24, 2024 - 02:00 AM
Via ReMix News,
At a time when France is experiencing a spectacular demographic decline, an overwhelming majority of French citizens are not in favor of using immigration as a lever to boost the birth rate, recent polling showed.


According to a CSA survey conducted for CNews, Europe 1, and Le Journal du Dimanche, 69 percent of respondents rejected using replacement through immigration as a means of injecting fresh blood into the French economy.

Upon further analysis, women (71 percent) were slightly more opposed to mass immigration than men (67 percent), and while every age group rejected the idea, elderly respondents were more firmly opposed.

A total of 56 percent of 18-24-year-olds were against using immigration to counter the declining birth rate, while 74 percent of those aged 35-49 and 70 percent of over-65s were opposed to it.

In a socio-economic breakdown, 65 percent of the most highly educated respondents were opposed, compared to 76 percent of those less qualified academically.

Supporters of Jordan Bardella’s National Rally were the most opposed at 94 percent, closely followed by voters of Éric Zemmour’s conservative Reconquest party at 92 percent.

For the Republicans, this opposition is slightly less pronounced but remains in the majority at 84 percent. On the Renaissance side, 62 percent of those polled were also against.

Conversely, on the left of the political spectrum, supporters of all parties are in favor of the proposal. Supporters of La France Insoumise (56 percent), the Greens (58 percent), and the Socialist Party (60 percent) are in favor of using immigration as a solution to the country’s demographic decline.


The number of births in France has not been at such a low level since the end of World War II. According to Insee data, the year 2023 saw just 678,000 babies born, a 6.6 percent drop from the previous year.
Faced with this demographic challenge, some politicians are proposing more immigration to counter the population decline.
Read more here...

 

[northern watch]

 

[Plain Jane]

Finns go to the polls Sunday to elect a new president at a time of increased tension with Russia

Finns will vote Sunday to elect a new president as the Nordic nation is a NATO member and its eastern border with Russia is closed.

apnews.com

Finns go to the polls Sunday to elect a new president at a time of increased tension with Russia​

Y JARI TANNER
Updated 12:35 AM EST, January 26, 2024
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HELSINKI (AP) — Finns will vote Sunday to elect a new president at an unprecedented time: the Nordic nation is now a NATO member following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its eastern border with Russia is closed, both almost unthinkable a few years ago.

Unlike in most European countries, the president of Finland holds executive power in formulating foreign and security policy, particularly when dealing with countries outside the European Union like the United States, Russia and China.

“Clearly, the main task of the president is to steer foreign policy,” said Teivo Teivainen, professor of world politics at the University of Helsinki.

Some 4.5 million citizens are eligible to vote for Finland’s new head of state from an array of nine candidates — six men and three women — and pick a successor to hugely popular President Sauli Niinistö, whose second six-year term expires in March. He is not eligible for re-election.

Recent polls suggest that former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, 55, and ex-Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, 65, are the top contenders in Sunday’s first round of voting. None of the candidates are expected get more than 50% of the vote, pushing the race into a runoff in February.



Stubb, who headed the Finnish government in 2014-2015, and Haavisto, who is running for the post for the third time, are both estimated to gather 23%-27% of the votes, followed by Parliament speaker and far-right politician Jussi Halla-aho with around 18%. Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn was expected to receive about a 14% share of the votes.

A brief look at a map shows why foreign and security policy matters are important political themes in this northern European country of 5.6 million people: Finland shares a 1,340-kilometer (832-mile) border with Russia.

Candidate debates on television and media coverage have largely focused on Finland’s new role as a member of NATO, as well as the situation in neighboring Russia and its effects on Finland’s security. The war in Ukraine — where Finland is among the top European providers of military and humanitarian aid to Kyiv — and Israel’s war with Hamas in the Middle East have also emerged as key topics in the race.

Teivainen, the professor, said the head of state’s overall influence in Finland has strengthened due to its NATO membership and the growing importance of security issues in recent years, not least because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has deeply affected Finns.

Abandoning decades of military non-alignment, which guaranteed pragmatic and friendly relations with Moscow ever since the end of World War II, Helsinki opted to join NATO in May 2022 together with Nordic neighbor Sweden. The government’s decision, endorsed by Niinistö and strongly supported by the citizenry, was a direct result of Moscow’s assault on Ukraine, which started on Feb. 24 the same year.

Finland became the Western military alliance’s 31st member in April last year, much to the annoyance of Russia and President Vladimir Putin.

NATO membership and a war raging a mere 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) away from Finland’s border “stresses the security policy dimension” in the duties of the president, who also acts as the supreme commander of the Finnish military, Teivainen said.
“The threat of war is now a much more concrete thing,” he said.

Compared to the previous election in 2018, the geopolitical status of Finland — which for decades maintained a careful balancing act between the East and the West — has made an about-face and presidential candidates have focused in their speeches on the nation’s new role as a NATO front-line country.

Under the Finnish Constitution, the president decides on foreign and security policy issues together with the government. He or she also appoints the prime minister and government members, signs bills into law, and acts as a moral leader of the nation on major issues.

In a practice that has become a rule during the reign of Niinistö, Finland’s president since 2012, the prime minister, currently Petteri Orpo, focuses on EU issues in the foreign policy arena, while the president deals with other countries and largely stays out of domestic politics.

Niinistö has won praise among Finns for maintaining close ties and seeking dialogue with his counterparts in Moscow, Washington and Beijing to help the Nordic nation punch above its weight and bring attention to its positions.

Since the start of Moscow’s Ukraine assault nearly two years ago, the Finnish president’s ties to Putin have ceased to exist. Moscow has harassed Finland with a range of retaliatory measures — apparently due to its NATO membership and Helsinki’s enhanced military cooperation with Washington — from cyber attacks to threats of Russia’s increased military activity in the Baltic Sea region.

“It’s utterly important for us to keep connection not only with the United States but also with China and, as soon as it’s realistic, with Russia,” Niinistö told Finnish public broadcaster YLE earlier this month.

Late last year, Finland closed its border with Russia after some 1,300 migrants without proper documentation or visas arrived across the frontier just months after Finland joined NATO.

With such “hybrid warfare” Helsinki suspects Moscow is trying to undermine the Nordic country’s security by sending undocumented migrants across the frontier — a claim that the Kremlin denies.

Finland acts as the European Union’s external border in the north and makes up a significant part of NATO’s northeastern flank.

All eight Finland-Russia border crossing points for passengers have been closed since Dec. 15. The southeastern rail checkpoint for cargo trains in Vainikkala remains open for now.

 

[Plain Jane]

NATO chief upbeat that Sweden could be ready to join the alliance by March

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is upbeat about Sweden's chances of being ready to join the military organization by March.

apnews.com

NATO chief upbeat that Sweden could be ready to join the alliance by March​

1 of 3 |
FILE - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, left, greets Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson during arrivals for a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11, 2023. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson tells his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán that more dialogue would be beneficial after Orbán invited the Swede to Budapest to discuss Sweden’s NATO accession. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)
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Updated 6:43 AM EST, January 26, 2024
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BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg expressed optimism on Friday that Sweden could be ready to join the military organization by March, after receiving positive signals this week from holdouts Hungary and Turkey.

Sweden, along with its neighbor Finland, set aside decades of military nonalignment after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 to seek protection under NATO’s collective defense umbrella. Finland has since joined, and it along with the other 30 allies must all agree for Sweden to join.
But Turkey and Hungary have held up proceedings.

“Sweden’s entry into NATO will make the whole alliance stronger,” Stoltenberg told reporters as he provided details about talks this with week with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and noted new developments in Turkey.

“The message I have received from Budapest is that the parliament will reconvene at the end of February, so we have to wait for that. But I’m absolutely confident, and I count on Hungary,” Stoltenberg said.


Initially, Hungary gave no clear reason for the delays, and Orbán had insisted that his government wouldn’t be the last to endorse Sweden. But the tone toward Stockholm hardened, as the European Commission refused to allow Hungary access to EU funds over democratic backsliding.

Budapest accused Swedish politicians of telling “blatant lies” about the state of Hungary’s democracy.

Orbán, who has broken ranks with NATO allies by adopting a Kremlin-friendly stance toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said Tuesday that he had invited Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to Budapest to discuss “future cooperation in the field of security and defense as allies and partners.”


Unless an emergency session of parliament is called to debate Sweden’s bid, the assembly is due to sit on Feb. 26.
To let Sweden join, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan imposed a series of conditions including a tougher stance on groups that Turkey considers to be threats to its security, like Kurdish militants and members of a network he blames for a failed coup in 2016.

Separately, but linked to his approval, Erdogan insisted on a fighter-jet deal with the United States.

On Tuesday, Turkish lawmakers finally held a vote on the issue and ratified Sweden’s accession protocol by 287 votes to 55. The Turkish government finalized the step Thursday by publishing the measure in an official gazette.

Stoltenberg welcomed the fact that on Thursday night Erdogan “gave his signature to the decision of the parliament, so now all decisions are in place in Turkey.”

Sweden will become NATO’s 32nd member once Hungary completes its procedures and the “instruments of ratification” of all allies have been received by the U.S. State Department.

 

[Plain Jane]

German president calls for alliance against extremism as protests against far right draw thousands

Germany’s president has called for a broad “alliance against extremism” in the wake of a report about far-right discussions of deporting millions of immigrants that prompted protests by hundreds of thousands of people.

apnews.com

German president calls for alliance against extremism as protests against far right draw thousands​

Updated 9:52 AM EST, January 29, 2024
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BERLIN (AP) — Germany’s president called Monday for a broad “alliance against extremism” in the wake of a report about far-right discussions of deporting millions of immigrants that prompted protests by hundreds of thousands of people.

Germany has seen more than two weeks of protests against the Alternative for Germany party and others on the far right. The Interior Ministry said police figures suggest that some 576,000 people took part in demonstrations between Friday and Sunday.
President Frank-Walter Steinmeier met with employers and business associations, labor union leaders and others on to discuss social cohesion and the state of democracy in Germany.

He called the protests “a strong signal for our democracy” and said that “we now need a broad alliance across the population, across companies, culture and society — an alliance against extremism and for our democracy.”

The largely ceremonial head of state acknowledged, however, that “such an alliance alone can’t make the difference” and that “we need governments, an opposition, that do their work well.”

The pro-democracy demonstrations started after the investigative journalists’ group Correctiv published an article saying that right-wing extremists had recently met to discuss deporting millions of immigrants and people with immigrant roots, including some with German citizenship. Some Alternative for Germany members were present at the meeting.

The party, which has risen to second place in national polls behind the mainstream conservative opposition as center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition has become deeply unpopular, has sought to distance itself from the extremist meeting while also decrying the reporting.

It has said it had no organizational or financial links to the event, that it wasn’t responsible for what was discussed there and members who attended did so in a purely personal capacity.


Steinmeier said that more than a quarter of the work done in Germany is done by people whom right-wing extremists would like to throw out. He also said the country would also be “in a fix” if it can’t attract workers from abroad.

Germany’s main employer association and labor union federation issued a joint statement stressing that everyone living in Germany “must feel safe in our country.”

They said that Germany must remain attractive as a location “also to invite foreign skilled workers to find a home here.”