INTL Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis​


BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 - 02:45 AM
Governments of the European Union are engaged in wargames which simulate and foresee a global food crisis. A mix of major factors including the Russia-Ukraine war and impact on grain supplies there, as well as weather events like El Niño and La Niña and their impact on Latin American soy output, and the anti-EU farmers' protests which have disrupted supermarket supply chains, have been cause for alarm, European officials say. Of course there's also the example of how drastically a pandemic can interfere with supply chains. Panic buying was a trend and constant fear within the early months of the coronavirus crisis.

Bloomberg details of a conference held in Brussels last month that envisioned a 2024 to 2025 food shortage in Europe: "...over two days in central Brussels last month, some 60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists gathered to confront the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis."
Getty Images

Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and game designer who helped put the conference gaming scenario together told participants to "Expect a level of chaos" and cautioned, "You may be confused at times and not have enough information."

As the report underscores, what's remarkable about this is the fact that a continent which stands out as among the best-fed regions in the world is now busy stress testing its food system.

Below are some of the scenarios put before participants in the wargaming event last month:

* * *

Harvest failures:

"And so, it’s 2025 and there are more harvest failures. They impact animal feed prices, which curbs livestock and fish production. Some ships carrying crops turn away from Europe to cater to higher bidders elsewhere."
Palm oil exports cut:

"Asia’s palm oil export limits are now reducing supplies of daily staples from margarine to bread. Allegations of corporate greed, disinformation and conspiracy theories are spreading."
Fertilizer crisis:

"The cost of fertilizers and energy needed to grow crops and keep glasshouses running soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."
Unrest in the street as shortages hit locally:

"Things unravel further later in 2025. Thieves are looting supermarkets. Police struggle to contain riots spreading in cities. People in Germany can’t find fish and meat at grocery stores. Livestock farmers are going bankrupt."
Popular anger targets elites & corporations

"Meanwhile, the public’s focus shifts to profiteering by commodity traders. Small farms fall like dominos, while attacks on immigrants begin to become more widespread. Is the EU a sinking ship, someone asks in the video?"

As for "solutions" - interestingly conference participants were told (or rather took it as an assumption) that populations would have to be weaned off meat. Let them eat bugs?

"Day two started with a mindfulness session before focusing on policy proposals and any conclusions," the Bloomberg journalist in attendance wrote. "There was little objection to the idea that diets need to shift toward healthier options and away from meat. Questions loomed over how best to manage food reserves and monitor the level of stockpiles."

Just who it is that will "manage" food reserves is an interesting, and possibly scary, scenario to imagine as well. Read the rest of the full report "Europe is Wargaming a Food Crisis" here.
 

Cacheman

Ultra MAGA!
They're bringing this on themselves by putting the screws on their own farmers and nothing else. Russia is the worlds largest exporter of wheat and Ukraine is peanuts in comparison. El Nino and La Nina have been a known natural cycle in the Pacific for centuries. The farmers are only hijacking the trucks carrying cheap imports that are undercutting their own local markets. Those 60 EU and government officials wargaming this can see the problem anytime they look in a mirror but admitting it will never happen.
 

Griz3752

Retired, practising Curmudgeon

Europe Is Alarmed Enough To Begin Wargaming A Food Crisis​


BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 07, 2024 - 02:45 AM
Governments of the European Union are engaged in wargames which simulate and foresee a global food crisis. A mix of major factors including the Russia-Ukraine war and impact on grain supplies there, as well as weather events like El Niño and La Niña and their impact on Latin American soy output, and the anti-EU farmers' protests which have disrupted supermarket supply chains, have been cause for alarm, European officials say. Of course there's also the example of how drastically a pandemic can interfere with supply chains. Panic buying was a trend and constant fear within the early months of the coronavirus crisis.

Bloomberg details of a conference held in Brussels last month that envisioned a 2024 to 2025 food shortage in Europe: "...over two days in central Brussels last month, some 60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists gathered to confront the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis."
Getty Images

Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and game designer who helped put the conference gaming scenario together told participants to "Expect a level of chaos" and cautioned, "You may be confused at times and not have enough information."

As the report underscores, what's remarkable about this is the fact that a continent which stands out as among the best-fed regions in the world is now busy stress testing its food system.

Below are some of the scenarios put before participants in the wargaming event last month:

* * *

Harvest failures:


Palm oil exports cut:


Fertilizer crisis:


Unrest in the street as shortages hit locally:


Popular anger targets elites & corporations




As for "solutions" - interestingly conference participants were told (or rather took it as an assumption) that populations would have to be weaned off meat. Let them eat bugs?

"Day two started with a mindfulness session before focusing on policy proposals and any conclusions," the Bloomberg journalist in attendance wrote. "There was little objection to the idea that diets need to shift toward healthier options and away from meat. Questions loomed over how best to manage food reserves and monitor the level of stockpiles."

Just who it is that will "manage" food reserves is an interesting, and possibly scary, scenario to imagine as well. Read the rest of the full report "Europe is Wargaming a Food Crisis" here.
Historically the world has looked to N American Farming Operations to back-stop any local crop failure or mismanagement but now, with PRC having such a large position in arable crop lands, I wonder how that's going to play out?
 

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Historically the world has looked to N American Farming Operations to back-stop any local crop failure or mismanagement but now, with PRC having such a large position in arable crop lands, I wonder how that's going to play out?

China owns, either directly or indirectly, about 500,000 acres.


Total US farmground, as of 2022, was 893,400,000 acres.


"Large" position? Reconsider.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
The emperor has no clothes and there's no such thing as man-made global warming climate cooling change.
Just because the other side robbed has all the money does not make them right.
This supposed food crisis is of their own making.

Pretty much every famine throughout history has been manmade! My how have we forgotten history!
 
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20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Historically the world has looked to N American Farming Operations to back-stop any local crop failure or mismanagement but now, with PRC having such a large position in arable crop lands, I wonder how that's going to play out?
The PRC doesn't have that much arable land. They have to import 25%+ of their food each year.

Europe has forgotten we fed them for over a decade after WW2 when they had nothing..... now we are scum.
 

colonel holman

Veteran Member
Meat = heavy water consumption, undeveloped lands exploitation, refrigeration energy expense, methane production, toxic masculinity, white colonialization, homophobic, unhealthy.

Worker bees not allowed to consume meat. Re-wild the land, protect animal dignity. Ration food, shrink populations, save the planet from those nasty humans
 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I read several historical novels about women in war over the last year or two. One overriding issue was starvation and lack of medicines. Men sent to war, held prisoners in occupied territory, lack of fuel, the occupying army confiscating stored food and anything grown on farms and in home gardens, commerce destroyed. People were near starvation, lacked soap and medicines and fuel.

What I took from it was don't get captured, and don't let your area become occupied. Fight to the death, hopefully of the enemy, because no matter what they say, they don't care about you other than what they can take.
 

Griz3752

Retired, practising Curmudgeon
The PRC doesn't have that much arable land. They have to import 25%+ of their food each year.

Europe has forgotten we fed them for over a decade after WW2 when they had nothing..... now we are scum.
I'm referring to the CONUS farm land they own; not sure how much it is but it's a chunk and I'm sure the Food Stuffs they import into PRC from CONUS is handled pretty much like when we shift cash from one one pocket to another.
 
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