CORONA "Crunch Time" Arrives And... Was Everyone Wrong About The Coronavirus?

Blacknarwhal

Let's Go Brandon!
Were they?? Sure seems to be the case!

Fair use cited so on and so forth.


"Crunch Time" Arrives And... Was Everyone Wrong About The Coronavirus?

by Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/07/2020 - 12:35

One week ago, when looking at the growing divergence between the number of new coronavirus cases in the US and shrinking number of fatalities, we referred to Nordea's strategist Andreas Steno Larsen, who observed that "we are entering “crunch time” on fatalities since they should start to rise in early July given the lead/lag structure versus new cases."

As Larsen further predicted, "if fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months. Governors in Texas, California and Florida seem to have concluded that the below correlation holds, but the jury is still out."

His conclusion was that "the next 6-10 days will be crucial."

Well, one week later, we decided to follow up on the current status and... there is still no spike in fatalities at either the federal level...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crunch-time-arrives-and-was-everyone-wrong-about-coronavirus


... or even state level as can be seen in the Florida cases vs deaths chart below:



Meanwhile, as cases appear to be plateauing in several states, not only are deaths not inflecting higher but are at the lowest level since March.

So were most experts wrong that the surge in cases would also lead to a spike in deaths?

While we are debating that question, here's another one: back in late March and early April, consensus emerged that unless the first coronavirus wave is contained, it would result in an even more acute and deadly second wave. Why? Because both professional and armchair epidemiologists were using the Spanish flu as a case study as shown in the following chart from JPMorgan.






Now, according to Deutsche Bank, it appears that this comparison to the 1918 Spanish Flu may have also been terribly wrong.

As DB's Jim Reid writes, one paper that influenced market thinking in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic looked at the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing and school closures during the Spanish flu (link here). The paper found that the US cities that implemented these measures tended to have better economic outcomes over the medium term. This offered historical support to the argument that there wasn’t such a big trade-off between economic activity and public health, because you needed to suppress the virus to enable consumers to be more confident and for businesses to operate as normal.

However, a major difference between Spanish flu and Covid-19 is the age distribution of fatalities, as shown in the chart below.



For Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. In fact, the death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, "a remarkable difference to Covid-19."

This, as the strategist then notes, therefore begs the question of how history will judge the lockdown response to Covid-19, given its much more limited impact on workers in the economy. In short, we have an interesting situation at the moment, where rapidly rising cases in the US are slowing reopenings (negative) but the death rate is falling (positive).

Here are some further observations conducted by another DB strategist, Francis Yared, which suggest that the second wave is far less serious than the media is making it out to be.

Conclusion: The overall mortality rate as measured by weekly deaths/ weekly new cases (2 weeks lead) is about 1/3rd of the level observed in the second half of April



Analysis: We calculate (1) the hospitalization rate as currently hospitalized (weekly average) / new cases (weekly sum, 1 week lead) and (2) the hospitalization mortality rate as Deaths (weekly sum) /currently hospitalized (weekly average, 1 week lead). The latter is a normalization of last week's calculation from daily deaths to weekly deaths. We focus on weekly averages and weekly lags as the time spent in hospital is about 1 week and to smooth the volatility due to week-end effects.

Results:

  • The hospitalization rate has declined to ~20% by 10-15pp since the second half of April. This may be due to (a) increased testing and better quality of the tests capturing milder cases and (b) self-selection of the population taking risks (e.g. average age of new cases declining)
  • The hospitalization mortality rate halved to ~10% (last week's results scaled from daily to weekly deaths) since the second half of April.
  • The overall mortality rate (deaths over lagged new cases) is the product of the previous two calculations. Since the second half of April, it has declined by about 2/3rd from 6.5% to 2%.
  • For the three largest states with hospitalization data CA/NY/TX, the respective current levels are as follows. Hospitalization rate: 18.1%, 18.7%, 19.4%. Hospitalization mortality rate: 7.8%, 6.9%, 5.2%. Overall mortality rate: 1.7%, 1.5%, 1.0%.


Meanwhile daily tests in the US hit a new all time high every single day.



As DB concludes, "this may eventually give us more faith that we are now better at living with the virus
 

The Mountain

Here since the beginning
_______________
The key question is "does testing positive mean you have the antibody or the active virus?"

Because the "spike" in cases is all about improved testing capacity and subsequent expanded testing.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
There are a bunch of people who it looks like are chronically ill from it though. Not good at all:

 

jazzy

Advocate Discernment
"if fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months.

ive heard this several times but dont know if i can agrere with conclusion. there really are several facotrs working here. in the beginning it was assumed to be a type of flu, they didnt know it was a bio weapon or exactly how it was killing people and testing sucked. it wasnt being treated properly and so much time was wasted trying this treatment and that. when finally HCQ was used with some decent results then adding zinc which was the silver bullet, finally deaths started to decline despite then political factions fighting very hard to prevent it from being used in favor of experimental expensive drugs by their buddies. less people dying doesnt necessarily mean a less virulent strains. its a number of factors.

even with these spikes less people will be dying because of improved testing with better and faster treatment with HCQ and zinc. that is the good part.
 

jazzy

Advocate Discernment
i dont see how there can be 'herd immunity' when its showing that many survivors do not maintain permanent antibodies. people who survive one strain have no protection from the other strains , last count i saw weeks ago there were over 30 strains floating around the globe and something like 4-6 differetn ones here in the US. dont know if its changed..more testing of survivors after 3-6-12-18 months will tell us more.

it just seems to me that the idea of we will achieve 'herd immunity' when enough people get infected and survive is the mythical unicorn of the covid world.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
A few minutes ago, I registered for a Red Cross blood drive they are running at the end of the month during which, they are testing all donations for Covid anti-bodies. They will inform donors of their serological status in about a week.

Talked to the RC main office and he said it's a mega-multi-million dollar study and it looks to me from the sites of collection, that they are trying to hit the hinterlands. The one I am signed up for is in a little jerkwater town on the N. Shore. Anyway...FINALLY somebody seems to be investing the time, $$, and effort into finding out how widespread asymptomatic cases have been. The guy at the office said they will be running the testing into September on all donations.

I suspect (for reasons I'll keep to myself for now) that I may well have had it about a month ago - with very few and super-mild but fracking bizarre symptoms. We will see.
 

mzkitty

I give up.
A few minutes ago, I registered for a Red Cross blood drive they are running at the end of the month during which, they are testing all donations for Covid anti-bodies. They will inform donors of their serological status in about a week.

Talked to the RC main office and he said it's a mega-multi-million dollar study and it looks to me from the sites of collection, that they are trying to hit the hinterlands. The one I am signed up for is in a little jerkwater town on the N. Shore. Anyway...FINALLY somebody seems to be investing the time, $$, and effort into finding out how widespread asymptomatic cases have been. The guy at the office said they will be running the testing into September on all donations.

I suspect (for reasons I'll keep to myself for now) that I may well have had it about a month ago - with very few and super-mild but fracking bizarre symptoms. We will see.

So........... if you test positive you can't donate blood?
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
I still believe a big reason why there are so many new cases is because of the large number of false positives from testing.

God is good, all the time.

Judy
Some false positives maybe...but I don't think the actual VIRUS testing is very accurate, and probably only shows positives inside a very narrow window of the infection course. I think a LOT of positives slip by undetected. More false NEGATIVES as results than false positives.

Just a gut feeling from what I've seen of the bug, and from somebody (me) who ran thousands of these type tests over the course of my working life....sweating both false negatives and false positives.

The serologies SHOULD be a lot more accurate...for as long as the antibodies hold up in the previously infected immune system. Of course, nobody really knows how long.
 
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Luddite

Veteran Member
I still believe a big reason why there are so many new cases is because of the large number of false positives from testing.

God is good, all the time.

Judy
At the lunch table at work, a co-worker was telling us of a friend that got tired of waiting in line for a scheduled test and left the line and went home.

He got his POSITIVE test in the mail some time later. I spent a few minutes in the "Q Anon" thread in ALT and saw the same scenario being discussed by other people.

I'm buying stock in rope and sturdy tree limbs. I said months ago to watch the death-rate in third world countries.

This won't go back in the box as neatly as it came out... jmho

ETA: Sorry, it was this thread, not the one mentioned above. HEALTH - Man, they want cases to be covid so badly!
 
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Green Co.

Administrator
_______________
Can't agree or disagree with the CV naysayers. Just personal observations, on a trip back to the home area over the 4th weekend, cases there increased from one to eleven in 8 days. I knew four of them, ages 59 to 28. I noticed on the Texas dasshboard, there has been one death I did not know of.

The Texas dashboard also shows the largest confirmed cases for one day, 10,000+, and a new high for Texas deaths in a single day, 60+.

Whether you believe the beer bug is real or contrived, something is amiss. And the largest confirmed cases count isn't amongst old farts like myself, it's younger folks, 20 - 59 YOA.

I'll keep protecting me & mine, ya'll do as you must.
 
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rolenrock

Senior Member
It's hard to know where the truth lies with this epidemic but I think the 2020 Presidential election is the reason for all the craziness. Mail-in voting is the goal. Don't get me wrong, people are dying and this is a real virus but the spin is there to defeat Donald Trump to deny him a second term.
 

cowboy

Veteran Member
Word! I like you have reasons to keep to myself and it was thirty some days till I went to my heart doc. One look at me and he freaked and everything got postponed till tomorrow. That was in Jan. My bad it was Feb.

One of the few well taught lessons my old man gave me was to run and run fast from RC people. Yes there is good people that work there but the reasons I see is they want to know why it failed, not how to help.

A few minutes ago, I registered for a Red Cross blood drive they are running at the end of the month during which, they are testing all donations for Covid anti-bodies. They will inform donors of their serological status in about a week.

Talked to the RC main office and he said it's a mega-multi-million dollar study and it looks to me from the sites of collection, that they are trying to hit the hinterlands. The one I am signed up for is in a little jerkwater town on the N. Shore. Anyway...FINALLY somebody seems to be investing the time, $$, and effort into finding out how widespread asymptomatic cases have been. The guy at the office said they will be running the testing into September on all donations.

I suspect (for reasons I'll keep to myself for now) that I may well have had it about a month ago - with very few and super-mild but fracking bizarre symptoms. We will see.
 
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Border Collie Dad

Flat Earther
There's good information in this locked thread.

Specifically about the testing needed to discover the virus which seems to have never been done.
Jon Rappaport has been reporting on this for months at nomorefakenews.com
 

Raggedyman

Res ipsa loquitur
There are a bunch of people who it looks like are chronically ill from it though. Not good at all:


at least that's what were TOLD . . . who really knows how bad that is? as a comparative - in college I worked full time and went to school full time. eventually it caught up with me. I contracted mononucleosis - and it was severe enough that I was hospitalized for 10 days. it took me a full 6 months to beat the residual fatigue - and over a YEAR to get back to my typical warp 9 speed. IMHO its too soon to know with any certainty how the typical case of COVID is going to ultimately recover. common sense dictates each individual outcome will be dictated by what the individual looked like GOING INTO IT
 

Raggedyman

Res ipsa loquitur
i dont see how there can be 'herd immunity' when its showing that many survivors do not maintain permanent antibodies. people who survive one strain have no protection from the other strains , last count i saw weeks ago there were over 30 strains floating around the globe and something like 4-6 differetn ones here in the US. dont know if its changed..more testing of survivors after 3-6-12-18 months will tell us more.

it just seems to me that the idea of we will achieve 'herd immunity' when enough people get infected and survive is the mythical unicorn of the covid world.

its cornavirus - like the common cold - so you (we) will never achieve 100% immunity from either the common cold OR the flu for that reason. best bet is TAKING CARE OF YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM:
  • eat right
  • maintain a healthy weight
  • STAY ACTIVE
  • supplements CAN BE your friends - especially vit C and D
  • if you still smoke S T O P

ETA:
repeating here but once again - I have NEVER had a flu shot - I have also NEVER HAD the flu. the last time I was seriously sick was in the early '70's I was in the hospital for 10 days with a severe case of MONO.

DON'T TAKE medicine you don't NEED TO TAKE and GET OFF IT when and as soon as you can. as silly as that sounds there are people who take a pill and get vaccinated for everything they can; who take a sleeper ever night who take a laxative every day. in many (but not all) - those last are HABITS. I take 81mg baby aspirin every day - but I won't take ANYTHING for pain unless I am absolutely debilitated by it. as much as you can - STAY AWAY FROM DOCTORS . most here know what I did before I retired. as always - YYMV
 
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33dInd

Veteran Member
Excellent article, and brings into question the reimposed shutdowns, contact tracing, masks and fear mongering of the MSM and local, state and federal government. It's time to question the effectiveness and motives of the Covid kooks!
I believe the majority of us the great unwashed are questioning the effectiveness the polis have inflected. they just mostly are not listening.
 

33dInd

Veteran Member
Norman Oklahoma. A Democratic strong hold has just mandated MANDATED face mask outside.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
Word! I like you have reasons to keep to myself and it was thirty some days till I went to my heart doc. One look at me and he freaked and everything got postponed till tomorrow. That was in Jan. My bad it was Feb.

One of the few well taught lessons my old man gave me was to run and run fast from RC people. Yes there is good people that work there but the reasons I see is they want to know why it failed, not how to help.
:shr: These Red Cross drives/study are the only game in town (or anywhere else far as I can see) for getting a serology run.
I'm gonna grab the opportunity.
 

Ronman2002

Contributing Member
So if this was created in a lab and released intentionally or not, this is a trove of knowledge for TPTB as it is now a real world test. I expect significant improvements on the next release..............
 

cowboy

Veteran Member
That is your call!

May I take this time to thank ST and many others for their advice to boost my immune system that allowed me to pass the ultimate test.
 
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Walrus Whisperer

Hope in chains...
At the lunch table at work, a co-worker was telling us of a friend that got tired of waiting in line for a scheduled test and left the line and went home.

He got his POSITIVE test in the mail some time later. I spent a few minutes in the "Q Anon" thread in ALT and saw the same scenario being discussed by other people.

I'm buying stock in rope and sturdy tree limbs. I said months ago to watch the death-rate in third world countries.

This won't go back in the box as neatly as it came out... jmho

ETA: Sorry, it was this thread, not the one mentioned above. HEALTH - Man, they want cases to be covid so badly!
It's become the SOLE SOURCE of what they want! TOTAL CONTROL.
 

Windy Ridge

Veteran Member
Yup. They are control freaks. They LOVE being in control of people. But it is difficult to be sure they have the degree of control that they lust for. So they force people to do things they would never do or want to do of their own free will.

Windy Ridge
 

33dInd

Veteran Member
I've started looking for a home in Oklahoma . . . so, not Norman . . . thanks
Norman is a liberal college stronghold
I have heard the current mayor would like to secede from the state
She is a real dip wad
 
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