ALERT Comprehensive Flu Thread, Latest reports, States, Countries, Closings.

[dragonslayer2001]

...................

Between this AND Climategate things might soon start to unravel. Thanks for posting this on the Webbot thread.............





Monday, 21 December 2009

WHO to be Investigated by Council of Europe




The Council of Europe member states are to launch an inquiry in January 2010 on the influence of the pharmaceutical companies on the global swine flu campaign, focussing especially on the extent of the pharma industry's in fluence on WHO, according to reports in the German media.


Wolfgang Wodarg, a former SPD member of parliament and chairman of the European parliament's health committee, initiated the inquiry. The motion was passed unanimously by his colleagues in the European parliament's health committee.


Wodarg has criticised the measures taken against the swine flu as "one of the biggest medical scandals of the century."


He said the influence of the pharamaceutical industry on scientists and government officials has resulted in "millions of healthy people being exposed unnecessarily to the risks of an inadequately tested vaccine."


That even though, the swine flu virus is "much less harmful" than last year's seasonal flu causing "not even a tenth of the usual deaths associated with flu."


Wodarg has also criticised the way pharmaceutical companies have made gigantic profits at the expense of taxpayers. He accused vaccine manufacturers of being willing even to inflict bodily harm "in their pursuit of profits, noting that the adjuvants in the swine flu jab have hardly been tested."


Wodarg has said that the role of the WHO and its pandemic emergency declaration in June needs to be the especial focus of a European parliamentary inquiry. For the first time the criteria for a pandemic was made not the actual risk of a disease but the number of cases of the disease.


By classifying the swine flu as pandemic, nations were compelled to implement pandemic plans and also the purchase of swine flu vaccines. Because WHO is not subject to any parliamentary control, Wodarg argued it is necessary for governments to insist on accountability.


What is a pandemic should not be allowed to be defined by an organisation that is clearly under the influence of the pharmaceutical companies that profit from the sales of vaccines accompanying such a pandemic. Many of the decision makers in WHO have worked for the pharma industry and go back to work there.


Well done Herr Wodarg!


http://subrosa-blonde.blogspot.com/2009/12/who-to-be-investigated-by-council-of.html

 

[Tom McDowell]

Weakening, spray for swine flu recalled
Revaccination not needed, officials say

Most of the nearly 5 million doses of swine flu vaccine being recalled have already been administered. Most of the nearly 5 million doses of swine flu vaccine being recalled have already been administered. (Tim Sloane/AFP/Getty Images)
By Matthew Perrone and Marilynn Marchione


Associated Press / December 23, 2009

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/w...12/23/weakening_spray_for_swine_flu_recalled/

WASHINGTON - Drug maker MedImmune is recalling nearly 5 million doses of swine flu vaccine because the nasal spray appears to lose strength over time, federal health officials said yesterday.

The vaccine recall is the second this month caused by declining potency and comes as public health officials urge millions of Americans to get vaccinated against swine flu.

The action affects more than 4.6 million doses, but the vast majority have already been used, according to the Food and Drug Administration. Agency officials said the vaccine was strong enough when it was distributed in October and November.

“The slight decrease in potency is not expected to have any effect on the protective effect of the vaccine,’’ said Norman Baylor, director of the FDA’s vaccine research office. “We are not recommending revaccination.’’

The agency is looking into the problem but said it is not uncommon for vaccines to lose strength over time. MedImmune’s vaccine has a recommended shelf life of about four months.

Last week, vaccine maker Sanofi Pasteur recalled hundreds of thousands of swine flu shots for children because tests indicated those doses lost some strength. Most of those doses had already been used, too.

Swine flu vaccine has been available since early October, and manufacturers have released more than 111 million doses for distribution in the United States.

Maryland-based MedImmune makes the only nasal spray version, which can be used by healthy people ages 2 to 49.

“It’s not a safety concern. People who have received doses from the affected lots do not need to be revaccinated. The doses were well within potency specification,’’ said spokesman Tor Constantino.

Only in recent weeks have state authorities lifted restrictions on who can get vaccinated. Previously the vaccines were reserved for high-risk patients, including pregnant women and schoolchildren.

Dr. Anne Schuchat of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that 60 million Americans have received swine flu vaccine and said intense monitoring for side effects has not turned up any concerns.

“We are not seeing any worrisome signs,’’ she said.

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[Tom McDowell]

AstraZeneca’s Swine Flu Nasal Spray Recalled for Lower Potency

By Tom Randall
To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Randall in New York at trandall6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 23, 2009 00:00 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ahaLdhKkNE0c



Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- AstraZeneca Plc recalled 4.7 million doses of its nasal spray version of the swine flu vaccine after routine tests showed a decline in potency, U.S. regulators said.

The doses remain safe, and people who have already been inoculated don’t need to get vaccinated again, said Norman Baylor, director of vaccines research and review for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. About 3,000 of the affected doses remain in warehouses, and AstraZeneca will send recall notices to clinics that may have unused vials of the vaccine.

The recall follows a similar move on Dec. 15 by Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis SA, which recalled 800,000 swine flu shots. Manufacturers maintain samples for testing from each vaccine lot that is shipped, and they continue to test them for waning potency, Baylor said. Both recalls were made voluntarily after the strength dropped below pre-specified thresholds.

“There are no safety concerns with these lots,” Baylor said in a conference call with reporters yesterday. “We do see a decline in potency every now and then.”

The doses were distributed in October and early November, and the “vast majority” have already been administered, said Tor Constantino, a spokesman for London-based AstraZeneca, in a telephone interview yesterday. The doses passed all potency tests before the vaccines were shipped. The company has never seen a similar potency decline with its seasonal-flu version of the FluMist nasal spray vaccine, he said.

60 Million Vaccinated

At least 60 million people in the U.S. have received one of several kinds of swine flu vaccine, out of 111 million doses available as of this week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported yesterday. After initially limited supplies, most states are now offering free inoculations to anyone who wants one, said Anne Schuchat, head of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, on a conference call.

AstraZeneca has shipped 23 million doses out of its contract for 40 million with the U.S. Health and Human Services Department, Constantino said. The U.S. ordered 251 million doses of swine flu vaccine from five companies, and most states now have enough to offer the vaccine to people of all ages. The shots and nasal sprays are paid for by the U.S. government, though clinics can charge a fee to administer them.

Vaccine availability across the country has been rising, even as illnesses are on the wane, according to the CDC. Swine flu rates have fallen for seven straight weeks and are at their lowest level since pupils returned to classes in September.

Clinging Antigen

Sanofi’s decreased vaccine potency may have been due to the key ingredient, antigen, clinging to the wall of the syringe over time, the CDC’s Schuchat said after the recall.

AstraZeneca’s vaccine has a different type of applicator and is made using a different process, the FDA’s Baylor said. Scientists are still trying to determine what was responsible for the reduced potency. Such decreases are rare but not unheard of, he said. A batch of seasonal flu vaccine was recalled for the same reason in February, FDA spokeswoman Karen Riley said in yesterday’s conference call.

H1N1 infected 50 million people in the U.S. and killed an estimated 10,000 through Nov. 14 from the start of the pandemic in April, according to CDC estimates reported Dec. 10. About 36,000 people die each year in the U.S. from influenza.

Most swine flu infections are no worse than seasonal flu, according to CDC officials. In rare cases the disease leads to severe illness and death in otherwise health people. Unlike seasonal flu, swine flu disproportionately attacks the young. In a typical flu season, 90 percent of deaths are over age 65; with swine flu, the effects are reversed, with 90 percent of deaths under age 65.


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[Tom McDowell]

North Carolina

Testing finds swine flu in pigs at 2 NC farms
The Associated Press

http://www.bnd.com/326/story/1062953.html

RALEIGH, N.C. -- Federal testing has identified the swine flu in pigs at two North Carolina farms.

The results released Wednesday makes North Carolina the 10th state with identified cases of swine flu in animals. State Veterinarian David Marshall said the presence of swine flu in pigs is not unexpected and the cases show that the surveillance system is working.

Health officials said people cannot contract the swine flu from handling or consuming pork products. They said it appears the pigs at both farms caught the virus from humans.

The states of Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois have confirmed cases of swine flu in pigs. The virus also been identified in cats, ferrets, turkeys, a dog and a cheetah in other states.


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[Tom McDowell]

H1N1 RBD D225G and D225N in Mexican Swine
Recombinomics Commentary 19:54
December 24, 2009

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12240901/D225G_D225N_swine_Mex.html

Sequences from an April outbreak of H1N1 in Queretaro, Mexico were released at Genbank. The HA sequence, A/swine/4/Mexico/2009, had mixed signals at three positions within the receptor bind domain, coding for wild type as well as D225G, D225N, and Q226R. The "immediate notification" of was sent to OIE on December 12.

This April outbreak started a few weeks after a swine outbreak in Alberta, Canada and both remain candidates for pandemic H1N1 circulation in swine independent of human to swine transmission. The Alberta outbreak was initially said to be due to infection by a worker returning from Mexico, but the worker tested negative for H1N1 and multiple sequences from the herd were heterogeneous, indicating the infections were not due to a single recent introduction. Thus, the close relationship between the swine sequences and pandemic H1N1 suggested that the swine isolates may have been representative of pandemic H1N1 circulating in swine prior to the jump to humans.

The sequences in Mexican swine also are candidate sequences. In addition to the changes within the receptor binding domain, the HA sequence has a number of additional polymorphisms frequently found in swine. Like the outbreak in Alberta, no matching sequence from a human linked to the herd has been presented. However, the mixed signals coding for D225N and Q226R were present in human spring isolates, including California/7/2009, which is the target for the current vaccine.

However, there have only been three reported human cases with both D225G and D225N. All three were fatal and all involved the same mixed signals reported for the swine sequence. One sequence was from a case (28F) in Utah (A/Utah/42/2009) who died Jul 24, while the other two from Mexico were just released at Genbank. One patient (25M) had samples collected Oct 31, A/Mexico/InDRE50625/2009, while the other (40M) had samples collected Nov 1, A/Mexico/InDRE50617/2009. The fact that both sequences were from the adjacent province of San Luis Potosi may signal human to human transmission.

The association of the D225G and D225N combination with fatal cases reduces the likelihood that the swine outbreak in Queretaro, Mexico was cause by human to swine transmission. However, these sequences do raise concerns of swine acting as reservoir for such changes. D225G is common in swine and the number of swine outbreaks continues to rise worldwide. Both Russia and South Korea have filed immediate OIE reports this week, and the report from South Korea is on 15 outbreaks throughout the country. Similarly, the number of reports of H1N1 in other species continues to grow almost daily. This week the detection of H1N1 in a dog in New York confirms canine cases in China, and there have been multiple reports on domestic cats and ferrets, which in association with multiple reports of H1N1 in turkeys, suggest the number of H1N1 infected species is large and growing.

More intense surveillance of these reservoirs and release of swine H1N1 sequences from the Mexico repository would be useful.

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[Hansa44]

Anyone heard from Tom, Sky, SassyinAZ, Cascadians, etc.?

 

[Tom McDowell]

WHO chief yet to be vaccinated against swine flu
World Health Organization chief Margaret Chan revealed Tuesday that she has yet to be vaccinated against the swine flu virus.

Published: December 29, 2009 16:45h

http://www.javno.com/en-world/who-chief-yet-to-be-vaccinated-against-swine-flu_288003

GENEVA, December 29, 2009 (AFP) - World Health Organization chief Margaret Chan revealed Tuesday that she has yet to be vaccinated against the swine flu virus, which has killed over 11.500 people world-wide.

"I have asked my medical service to inquire where I can go to get my vaccination," she told reporters in Geneva, pointing out that she has just returned from leave.

The WHO Director-General stressed that she would "of course" get vaccinated and that "many of my staff" at the WHO have already taken their jabs against the A (H1N1) virus.

Many countries rolled out their vaccination programs over the past two months, but the take-up rate has been lower than expected.

Germany in early December said it wants to sell spare vaccines to other countries, while Switzerland said in mid-December that it would give away part of its stock to developing countries and sell another part to countries that are still trying to leaked vaccines.

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[Tom McDowell]

The Great U.S. Swine Flu Epidemic is Over

By Competitive Enterprise Institute , From Economy to Ecology - 17 Hours

http://www.opposingviews.com/articles/opinion-the-great-u-s-swine-flu-epidemic-is-over-r-1261953576

By Michael Fumento

The Big Scare of 2009 is over, folks. The U.S. swine flu epidemic has ended.

“The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was below the epidemic threshold,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website Fluview and this chart shows it.

New infections continued to drop this week to only 306 reported by CDC-monitored labs, compared to 1,370 just three weeks before and 11,470 at the height of the epidemic. That’s a plummet of over 97% from the height. Deaths and hospitalizations have plummeted to merely 20 and 313 respectively, compared to 85 and 982 just a week earlier and compared to 189 and 4,970 at the peak in October.

Remember that according to CDC estimates, about 257 Americans die of seasonal flu per day during flu season. Mind you, the swine flu deaths are actual while the seasonal flu ones are estimates so it’s not a completely apples-to-apples comparison.

Only 7 states still report widespread activity, down from 11 last week. The American College Health Association did not report new numbers this week, presumably because of the Christmas holiday.

Repeat, the swine flu epidemic is over.

So where do we go from here? No, unfortunately not to zero. Instead we’re at what’s called an “endemic” level. We can expect infections, hospitalizations, and deaths to continue at something the same rate as this last week until the end of flu season in April.

Judging by what we’ve seen so far in the U.S. and the experiences in New Zealand and Australia, we are in for an extremely mild flu season overall. That’s because swine flu is more contagious than the far deadlier seasonal flu, essentially muscling it aside. People inoculated with swine flu infection don’t get the seasonal flu.

So while you may recall all those “excess” deaths we were supposed to be getting from swine flu (30,000 to 90,000 according to the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and “89,000 to 207,000″ according to author John Barry in a The Washington Post op-ed that The Post has now conveniently deleted but can still be read elsewhere, we will actually get far fewer flu deaths overall both worldwide and in the U.S. because of swine flu.

While the media are finally beginning to admit that the World Health Organization’s swine flu “pandemic,” made possible only by completely redefining the definition, may be the mildest in history, they are not willing to admit that we will actually have fewer flu deaths internationally because of this alleged pandemic.

Yes, folks, the WHO and the media really did pull a fast one on us.

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[Tom McDowell]

H1N1 pandemic poses big communications challenge for global health agency: Chan

By: Helen Branswell, Medical Reporter, THE CANADIAN PRESS

http://www.am1150.ca/news/14/1043674

OTTAWA - For the director general of the World Health Organization, the best news of the decade is the fact that the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century is a moderate - some would even call it mild - one.

Still, that lucky break, disease-wise, has created a communications challenge for those in public health in general and the WHO in particular, Dr. Margaret Chan acknowledged Monday in an interview with The Canadian Press.

For years, the WHO and health officials around the world had worried about and planned for the possibility the dangerous H5N1 avian flu virus might trigger the next pandemic. (Many still worry humankind may have a future date with the so-called bird flu.)

Instead, two swine flu viruses swapped genes, giving rise to a new variant that started spreading among people. It was new enough to cause disease and occasionally death. But it was sufficiently similar to viruses that have spread among people in the past that its impact hasn't been the crisis many feared.

"The reality check by the new H1N1 virus caused a disconnect or a mismatch between the expectations and the reality," Chan said from Geneva, noting people's views of the H1N1 pandemic depend on whether it touched their lives or not.

"The reaction would span from complacency to some kind of suspicion," she said.

Some critics have castigated the WHO for declaring the pandemic in the first place. Some question the merits of efforts to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people against the virus, given the relatively small number of deaths so far in comparison with other pandemics.

The agency and its scientific advisers - some of the best minds on influenza and immunization issues in the world - have been accused of being in cahoots with the pharmaceutical industry to sell pandemic vaccine and antiviral drugs.

And in wild and wacky reaches of the Internet - fertile ground for those who sow seeds of speculation and conspiracy - there are even accusations that the WHO colluded to create and unleash the new virus on an unsuspecting world.

"I can understand all these suspicions and conspiracy thinking, but I must emphasize there's no basis for that. Absolutely no basis," Chan insisted.

Asked if she really does understand how people could conclude the agency she heads had a hand in starting a pandemic, Chan's tone changed.

"If indeed that conspiracy, if there is any evidence and basis to it, I want to see that (evidence), number 1," she said.

If there is any solid proof, "I will personally kill the organization," she said.

"We exist and survive to protect people. If we are the person who created this virus to harm people, we don't deserve the trust and the respect and the existence."

Chan, who on June 11 declared the first pandemic in 41 years, has been at the centre of public health crises before.

In 1997, as Hong Kong's director of health, she ordered the destruction of the city's poultry flocks - more than one million birds - in an effort to contain the newly emergent H5N1 virus. She was also in charge during the SARS outbreak of 2003, which ravaged Hong Kong's hospitals.

With that kind of experience, Chan knows to expect criticism.

"Very few people have foresight, but everybody has hindsight," she said, noting that is a lesson she learned from SARS.

She also knows the fullness of time can cast a more favourable light on decisions that are initially criticized.

"All the measures I put in place in Hong Kong in 1997 became the gold standard," she noted. "The aggressive approach by WHO, together with countries, to put SARS back into the ... box ... is paying dividends, isn't it?"

She even coaches her staff not to get defensive about the criticism levelled at the agency, saying critiquing of a public health response is part of the cycle.

"It is important to listen. If there is any substance or if the criticism is constructive and it can bring us to understand there is some failings and make us do better, we should thank people," Chan said.

Still, there's a hint of frustration as she describes the new reality facing officials trying to plan for and respond to a global reality like a pandemic - the unfettered, unchallenged reach of the Internet.

"We have never, in public health, had to experience this diversity of channels of communications," Chan said.

"And you, the media, representing the public, hold me accountable. You hold ministries of health accountable. ... You follow up on what we say."

"But where is the accountability with individuals who put things on YouTube, on Facebook, on blogs? ... Anything goes on the web. And individuals have to see through this avalanche of information - or disinformation - to make their judgment."

"That is the communications challenge that we are dealing with."

Despite the criticism, Chan said she doesn't believe the WHO's credibility has suffered, either from the declaration of the pandemic or the way the agency has handled it.

"In the mainstream scientific community, my member states, the industry, others are appreciative of what we are doing," she said.

"But I am mindful of some of the criticism I hear. But everything will come to light when we do the review and the lessons learned (process) later on."


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[Tom McDowell]

Number of H1N1 Infections Growing on Pig Farms

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/22795/number-of-h1n1-infections-growing-on-pig-farms?

SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - South Korea reported today another case of H1N1 infection at a local swine farm, adding to a growing list of pigs infected with the flu, local media reported.

The latest outbreak occurred in a pig farm in Jeungup, Jeolla Province, marking the sixteenth confirmed case of H1N1 infection since mid-December when five farms reported infection for the first time in the country, according to local media.

Authorities are suspecting pigs in the latest case might have contracted the virus through human contacts and expecting them to be naturally cured, according to media reports.

The country's farm ministry plans to take quarantine measures and vaccinate hog industry and health workers in an effort to stem further spread, local media said.

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[Tom McDowell]

The WHO Surprise on D225G / D225N H1N1 Fatalities
Recombinomics Commentary 17:48
December 29, 2009

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12290901/D225G_D225N_Surprise.html

After considering the current available virological, epidemiological and clinical findings and following discussions on an earlier draft with WHO and its European-based Collaborating Centre ECDC has come to a preliminary formulation namely that the G222D/N variants exist in a small proportion of sporadic severe, as well as mild cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection and that these represents natural variation of the virus with no special association with severity of the disease course.

As such and while they do not transmit they should have a minimal impact on public health and pandemic response.

Current data suggests that the cases involving variant viruses in different parts of the world are unrelated and the underlying mutation events probably occurred independently from each other in the infected individuals as a consequence of the natural variability of influenza viruses and their inability to correct random coding errors.

However because of that inherent variability and ability to surprise the 2009 A(H1N1) will need on-going combined virological, epidemiological and clinical surveillance and study.

The above comments in the latest ECDC report confirm attempts by WHO consultants to explain the strong association of D225G and D225N (aka D222G and D222N) with fatal and severe H1N1 cases as "random coding errors" even though the WHO regional lab in Mill Hill found D225G in four of four fatal cases, while the WHO region lab in Atlanta (CDC) found D225N in two of two additional cases, which were almost certain fatal cases also.

D225G and D225N are rare and have been reported in about 1% of H1N1 HA sequences, yet they have a 100% case fatality rate in sequences from Ukraine. This 100% CFR was matched in several additional countries, including two D225G and two D225N sequences in Brazil (Sao Paulo), as well as two D225G sequences in France and three recent sequences (1 D225G and 2 D225N) in Mexico. Moreover, recent sequences with mixed signals for both D225G and D225N have been found in 1 fatal case in the US (Utah), 2 fatal cases in Mexico (San Luis Potosi) and one severe case in Sweden (Stockholm). Similarly, Denmark, who filed a formal notification when three examples were identified and two were fatal while the third was severe, has a high rate.

Although there were a few mild cases with D225G in the US at the start of the pandemic last spring, including the vaccine target California/7, mild cases are common at the start of a pandemic because there is little immunity in the target population, and infections and symptoms can be caused by low viral loads which are effectively contained by a weak host response. The association of D225G and D225N is severe and fatal cases since the summer has been remarkable, especially since the vast majority of pandemic H1N1 infections are mild and resolve without treatment. In contrast, nearly 100% of recent cases with D225G, D225N, or both have been fatal or severe.

In Ukraine five isolates from patients who recovered had a wild type receptor binding domain, while six patients who were infected by the same sub-clade had either D225G in the four known fatal cases or D225N in the two likely fatal cases. This rate of 100% of six patients is not associated with six independent random errors in six patients, who died in the same general area at the same time, and only affects the position 225 codon.

This "random mutation" paradigm constantly produces "surprises", for which the above "experts" readily acknowledge on a very regular basis. They were surprised and baffled by H274Y Tamiflu resistance in patients infected with seasonal H1N1, and will again be surprised and baffled by the same result in pandemic H1N1.

WHO's reliance on consultants who try to use random mutation to explain these examples of 100% case fatality rates in multiple countries is cause for increasing concern.


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[Tom McDowell]

DeKalb woman is face of swine flu response;
CDC doctor in spotlight, updating the media on the fight against H1N1.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
December 26, 2009 Saturday


Craig Schneider; Staff

http://www6.lexisnexis.com/publishe...picId=100020422&docId=l:1098510185&isRss=true

With her crisp blue uniform and matter-of-fact calm, DeKalb County's Dr. Anne Schuchat has become the face of the government's response to swine flu.

Schuchat is the director of immunization and respiratory diseases at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As often as twice a week since April, she has stood before the nation's media and explained the latest developments on swine flu.

For the 50-year-old longtime CDC worker, who has battled diseases in Africa and China, this is her high-profile moment. Schuchat has remained a stable voice as the swine flu story has changed and changed again. She has remained steady amid the hardball questions, news of further outbreaks and criticism of her agency for delays in providing vaccine.

"The compass for me has been using the best science at all times ... and telling people what we know when we know it, and what we're uncertain about," Schuchat told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution during a recent interview at the CDC's headquarters on Clifton Road.

But even as she humanizes the nation's health agency, Schuchat won't show much beyond her public face. Asked what she likes to do outside of work, the DeKalb County resident told a reporter, "Spend time with my husband and read."

Asked to elaborate, the answer was no.

What others say about Schuchat is this: Her deep knowledge and communication skills have helped bring credibility and clarity to the government's response to swine flu.

"She has the background and she has the facts of the current situation," said Harvey Fineberg, president of the Institute of Medicine, a Washington-based nonprofit group that studies medical issues.

Beyond that, she has an ability to convey sincerity and concern, he said.

"She's reassuring even when she's conveying worrisome facts," said Fineberg, who co-authored a book on the CDC's response to swine flu in 1976, called "The Swine Flu Affair."

Schuchat represents a change from the CDC's public persona during its push to inoculate the nation against a swine flu in 1976. This year's flu is a new strain, and CDC officials acknowledged they have learned from the lessons of 1976.

Back then, politicians created the public face of the response. President Gerald Ford pushed for the mass immunization and provided photo opportunities of him rolling up his sleeve to receive the swine flu shot.

In addition, the CDC limited much of its public messaging to communication with state agencies.

Many problems followed. The virus hardly spread at all, and dozens of Americans fell ill after getting the shot with a nerve disorder called Guillain-Barre syndrome, and some died. The CDC director lost his job.

Numerous changes have occurred in how the CDC makes its decisions and how it shares them with the public.

Enter Anne Schuchat, and that uniform. She wears the uniform because she is an assistant surgeon general for the U.S. Public Health Service, one of the nation's seven uniformed services.

Schuchat stressed two major lessons from 1976. The first is to make sure that the public spokesman is actually familiar with the science. When Schuchat isn't in front of the cameras, she is director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. She oversees a staff of 800 researchers and scientists, half of whom are involved in swine flu.

Second, the CDC has made a point of communicating more with the media and American public. In doing that, it has aimed to convey the message that the fight against swine flu has been driven by science and public health issues, not political priorities, she said.

In person, Schuchat seems much the same as she does on camera. Behind the low-key persona, she has a disarming way of humanizing the issue and herself. She kids that her uniform makes her look like an airline pilot. Just as she does on camera, she shares her own concerns over the delays in the delivery of swine flu vaccine.

"I'm just as frustrated as everybody else is," she said.

Schuchat said she prefers a systematic approach to problems, even emergencies, and she's not one of those "cowboys who love a crisis." Part of her calm comes from the terrible situations she has seen in the past. She headed an epidemiology team in Beijing during the SARS crisis in China in 2003, and she worked with children with meningitis in West Africa.

Her brothers rib her about her mild manner on TV, she said. Schuchat comes from a family of three brothers and a sister. They love a good debate around a holiday table. And she's not shy to jump in.



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[Hansa44]

Thanks Tom. What do you think is going on? Do you think the flu is winding down or gearing up for another wave.

I was out and about yesterday and I was amazed how many people are seriously sick. Went to 2 banks in town and most the workers in BOTH banks were extremely ill and looked it too. Coughing, weak, told me they felt awful.

All I wanted to do was get out of there quick as possible.

 

[dragonslayer2001]

.....

The wave passed through here at it's worst in October. Few are seriously sick anymore and most people aren't worried. You can tell because no one is wiping down their desks and keyboards with wipes anymore.


It is a third wave I am worried about. There are killer versions out there, but they are not widespread and as of yet are not combined with anything highly contageous.


It is in spring time that the 'flu' season is supposed to be over. We will see if that is the case or a 'new' version of this flu gets going. Or maybe we can all just fret till next fall. Who knows? Certainly NOT the WHO.


D225G and D225N are rare and have been reported in about 1% of H1N1 HA sequences, yet they have a 100% case fatality rate in sequences from Ukraine. This 100% CFR was matched in several additional countries, including two D225G and two D225N sequences in Brazil (Sao Paulo), as well as two D225G sequences in France and three recent sequences (1 D225G and 2 D225N) in Mexico. Moreover, recent sequences with mixed signals for both D225G and D225N have been found in 1 fatal case in the US (Utah), 2 fatal cases in Mexico (San Luis Potosi) and one severe case in Sweden (Stockholm). Similarly, Denmark, who filed a formal notification when three examples were identified and two were fatal while the third was severe, has a high rate.

 

[Cascadians]

Ha! This came yesterday. Doubt there are many suckers to take this:

"Good afternoon OSBN licensees,

On behalf of the Oregon Public Health Division, the Oregon State Board of Nursing is sending you this message and encourages you to consider the requests being made. The Public Health Division is developing an employment pool of nurses who may be able to help in future nursing staffing shortages caused by diseases such as H1N1. Their explanation follows:

During the second wave of H1N1, one of the major issues was the increased number of hospitalizations with the simultaneous increase of hospital staff absences. This left hospitals in a vulnerable situation. Fortunately, hospitals were able to operate during Wave 2 in a way that protected their patients and staff.


As we prepare for the potential of Wave 3 of the H1N1 pandemic, in order to be pro-active, we are planning to build a potential pool of nursing staff resources in the event that hospitals in Oregon find themselves in a similar or more serious situation of increased hospitalizations and increased staff absences. We are hoping to gather feedback from you using a linked survey. This survey will be used to build a list of potential candidates to be given to hospital staffing agencies that may be asked to provide temporary staff to a hospital in need. Please take some time to fill out this survey if you would like to be considered for inclusion on a temporary staffing list. There is no guarantee of employment. To complete the survey, please go to:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/P9JNWHN
The deadline for filling out the survey is Friday January 15, 2010.

Another opportunity to help during this pandemic or other Oregon emergencies is to VOLUNTEER as a licensed health professional in the State Emergency Registry of Volunteers in Oregon (SERV-OR) as a local Medical Reserve Corps (MRC) Volunteer and/or as a State Managed Volunteer Pool Volunteer. As a SERV-OR Volunteer, you will have the opportunity to train for disaster response; network with other health professional volunteers; obtain CEU/CME/CNE credits; and participate in community public health events and exercises. During Wave 2 of the H1N1 response, MRC Volunteers were instrumental in the operation of community vaccination clinics. As local communities continue with their H1N1 vaccination efforts, MRC volunteers are still providing assistance. You always reserve the right to decline participation if you are not available for an activation or training event. To register just visit: https://SERV-OR.org or for more information, e-mail: SERV.OR@state.or.us or call 1-877-343-5767.

We want to thank you in advance for helping us prepare for a potential third H1N1 wave! Have a safe and warm holiday season.

Oregon State Public Health"
------------

NO THANKEEE !!

 

[Tom McDowell]

Korea Reports Two More Herds with H1N1 Flu Virus

Thursday, December 31, 2009

http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/22814/korea-reports-two-more-herds-with-h1n1-flu-virus?

SOUTH KOREA - Following up on previous H1N1-affected pig herds, the authorities have identified two further herds infected with the H1N1 flu virus.

The South Korean veterinary authorities sent Follow Up Report No. 1 dated 30 December to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE).

According to the report, the influenza A H1N1 virus has been found at two more pig herds.

The first outbreak, starting on 14 December, involved 20 imported pigs from a herd of 90 animals at Unbuk-dong in Inchon-Jikhalsi, off the north-west coast.

In the second outbreak, 56 pigs from a herd of 1,600 animals were found to be positive for the virus at Taein-myeon in Cholla-Bukdo in the south-west of the country on 28 December.

The report states that, after several pig farms were found to be infected with pandemic influenza A/H1N1, the Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries investigated the farms which had potential relations with the affected pig farms. In the course of this investigation, one farm was proved to be affected with pandemic influenza A/H1N1. The pigs in the affected farm were put under movement restrictions for three weeks.


===


and


Russia - New outbreaks of swine flu reported

30 Dec 2009

http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/301209/russia___new_outbreaks_of_swine_flu_reported.aspx


New outbreaks of swine flu reported - The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has received information about a pandemic influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in Russia.

The outbreak, which was confirmed early December, was submitted to the OIE on December 23rd by the veterinary services, Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Moscow, Russia.

The outbreak was confirmed in a pig herd in the republic of Chuvashia. In the herd of just over 10,000 animals, 45 pigs were fond infected – which equals to a morbidity rate of 0.42%. No pigs died or had to be culled.

Ongoing monitoring
The OIE writes: "As a result of ongoing monitoring activity, it was found that 45 pigs from the fattening group 135-155 days old were sick. The building contained 1,800 heads. The possible source of infection is not determined, but there is assumption that the swine infection took place because the personnel had been down with signs of acute respiratory disease."

"A ban on trade of live pigs and swine products from the establishment without thermal treatment is applied. Regular aerosol disinfection, including in the presence of animals, is being implemented.

===

and



Pigs test positive for human swine flu
December 30, 2009

http://www.news.gov.hk/en/category/healthandcommunity/091230/txt/091230en05008.htm?

The University of Hong Kong's influenza virus surveillance programme found five samples taken from pigs at the Sheung Shui Slaughterhouse on December 17 tested positive for the human swine influenza virus, the Food & Environmental Hygiene Department said today.

This is the third time the programme uncovered positive samples. No gene reassortment has occurred and the virus remained genetically similar to the human swine flu viruses regularly found in people. The flu virus is believed to have been transmitted from people to pigs.

The concerned samples were taken from pigs imported from the Mainland. The department informed the Mainland authorities, and they have strengthened monitoring of registered farms that supply live pigs to Hong Kong.

The World Health Organisation, World Organisation for Animal Health, Food & Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations and World Trade Organisation state that pork and pork products which are handled properly and thoroughly cooked are not a source of human swine flu infection.

Safe to eat

It is safe to eat pork and pork products that are cooked to an internal temperature of 70 degrees Celsius or above.

All imported live pigs from the Mainland should come from registered farms and have health certificates issued by the Mainland authorities. The Food & Environmental Hygiene Department inspects the certificates and the imported pigs' health conditions at the boundary control point.

Only pigs which pass the inspections before and after they are killed at the slaughterhouses can be supplied to the market and sold for consumption.

The department has reminded slaughterhouse staff and people who have contact with live pigs to pay attention to personal hygiene, and to wear masks and appropriate protective gear when working. They are also among the target groups to be vaccinated against the human swine flu.


===



.

 

[Tom McDowell]

Closing schools for short periods does not decrease infection rates
By University of Pittsburgh Schools of the Health Sciences,
Dec 30, 2009 - 12:43:05 PM

http://www.rxpgnews.com/Influenza_60/Closing_schools_for_short_periods_does_not_printer.shtml

Closing schools for less than two weeks during a flu pandemic may increase infection rates and prolong an epidemic, say University of Pittsburgh researchers in a study published ahead-of-print and online in the Journal of Public Health Management and Practice. The findings, developed from a series of computer simulations based on U.S. census data, indicate that schools may need to be closed for at least eight weeks in order to significantly decrease the spread of infection.

The value of school closures has been debated as a possible strategy to stem or slow the current H1N1 influenza pandemic. Indeed, hundreds of schools across the country have been closed at different periods during 2009 for fear the virus would spread more quickly if they stayed open.

"Although closing schools may seem like a reasonable way to slow the spread of flu, we found that it was not effective unless sustained for at least eight weeks after implementation," said study lead author, Bruce Lee, M.D., M.B.A., assistant professor or medicine, epidemiology and biomedical informatics, University of Pittsburgh. Closing schools quickly at the start of an outbreak was much less important than keeping them closed continually throughout the epidemic, he added.

According to study authors, short-duration school closures can increase transmission rates by returning susceptible students back to school in the middle of an epidemic when they are most vulnerable to infection.

The study also found that identifying sick students individually and keeping them from attending school had minimal impact on an epidemic. In addition, there were no significant differences between individual school closures and system-wide closures in mitigating an epidemic.

The study was based on an agent-based computer simulation model of Allegheny County, Pa., that represented the county's population, school systems, workplaces, households and communities. Simulations were based on the movement of residents each weekday from their households to designated workplaces or schools, and included 1.2 million people 200,000 of whom were school-aged children. The study also included more than 500,000 households and nearly 300 schools.

===


.

 

[Perramas]

Someone is lying about the total number of deaths from the swine flu.

CDC says over 10,000

And yet according to a December 11, 2009 report (http://tinyurl.com/ydw8kwo) from the EU’s version of our CDC, the European Center For Disease Prevention And Control, the total number of fatalities for the United States is only 1,929.

According to wiki total US deaths are 2853 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States

Now we know the feds lie about inflation, unemployment, terrorists attacks, heck they lie about everything to gain ever greater control of our lives. So why are you all following the CDC like its the word of god without questioning what they are telling you.

 

[Cascadians]

I don't follow CDC or WHO. Nobody has accurate statistics and those 2 orgs are known liars.

My focus is surviving it. All the rest ... phhfffft. Getting true facts about anything these days is difficult if not impossible.

 

[Be Well]

It's pretty simple, really. The lower fatality number/s are confirmed, tested positive deaths.

The larger number is estimated.

The CDC wants this to be a mild, non-threatening flu so that people will keep buying crap on their credit cards, going to work if they still have a job, and paying their mortgage.

The CDC is not going to estimate a higher number that is unrealistic, period. They finally admitted that there are many more deaths than tested and confirmed, and also that the testing is not very accurate anyway.

I figure this higher number and their recent CYA announcement that the 36,000 "deaths a year" number is bogus and not comparable to the deaths from pandemic variety flu is because they know more really bad news is going to hit soon and they don't want to look like liars and idiots.

(Waving at Cascadians!!!! something in mail for you very soon!)

 

[Cascadians]

Introducing Orka!

You too Be Well, Happy Newf Year ! Sorry we keep getting interrupted. We are brimming with unbridled excitement because we have a male baby Newfie puppy on the way! He's just over a month old and is in Belgium and will come to us February 12. We videoconference with him almost every day. Got this new computer just in time! Totally focused on this baby, wheeeeee!

Here's our Orka:

 

[Tom McDowell]

A unhealthy dose of fear
Originally published 05:45 a.m., January 5, 2010, updated 07:40 a.m., January 5, 2010

Dan Gainor

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/05/a-unhealthy-dose-of-fear/

When you get the H1N1 flu because the Centers for Disease Control botched the vaccine program, you suffer for a week. When you have a CDC more attuned to the political than the scientific, the pain lasts a lot longer. In fact, it's possible that the distraction of politics is the cause of fumbles in handling the agency's real job.

Health officials have struggled with what President Obama declared "a national emergency." Even though there finally might be enough vaccine, the CDC just recalled 800,000 doses. This follows an incompetent effort to meet American demand for the new vaccine. Massively behind schedule, the government managed to deliver only a fraction of the promised 160 million doses.

The head of the CDC, Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, administered a dose of understatement, warning the H1N1 vaccine rollout was "going to be a little bumpy." The director, one of Time magazine's 2009 "people who matter," got the job based on politicizing medicine. He "managed to persuade balky New Yorkers to say fuhgeddaboutit to cigarettes and trans fats in restaurants," wrote Time. He's an appropriate choice for what the CDC has become.

Alarmed by the "national emergency," parents were desperate to find the vaccine. Even that desperation was part of the CDC design. CDC communications strategist Kristine Sheedy actually complained that "people generally don't panic." Being "overreassuring and minimizing a threat . . . actually presents a risk," she continued. They want to "alarm people just enough so they'll get the vaccine."

Getting alarmed didn't turn out to be realistic. The flu wasn't anywhere near as bad as predicted. "I think it is very likely to be the mildest pandemic on record," Marc Lipsitch told one paper. Lipsitch, a Harvard epidemiology professor, "led a federally funded analysis" of the swine flu, so he should know.

But science and medicine are complicated and it would be fair to give the CDC the benefit of the doubt if those were its only major problems. They aren't.

The CDC has been plagued by difficulties for several years. In an era where Climategate casts doubt on science in general, scientific accuracy should be a particular concern.

In 2005, the CDC falsely claimed that obesity was killing 400,000 Americans a year, making it our No. 1 health problem. But those numbers collapsed under their own weight.

Upon being found out, CDC first attempted to tweak its results down to 365,000. A later study showed even the adjusted total was about 14 times higher than the roughly 26,000 believed to be correct. To add insult to injury, that new study "found that people who are modestly overweight actually have a lower risk of death than those of normal weight," according to the Associated Press.

CDC refused to admit how totally ridiculous its results were. AP reported that: "the CDC is not going to use the brand-new figure of 25,814 in its public awareness campaigns and is not going to scale back its fight against obesity."

Once again, the CDC wanted to alarm people just enough so that agency bureaucrats would have a compliant public willing to take their advice. And again, reality wasn't quite so alarming.

For at least a decade, CDC has been making suspect claims about what it views as vices - food, alcohol and tobacco. One CDC classic concluded its findings "suggest higher alcohol taxes and higher minimum legal drinking ages are associated with lower STD incidence among certain age groups."

It's a claim like that can have impact years later. In an article just this past September, two medical "experts" took that poorly substantiated leap even further, calling for an alcohol tax to fund health care reform. A "tax increase of 3 cents per beer would cut youth gonorrhea by 9 percent," they argued. Why not tax beers 35 cents and defeat gonorrhea altogether?

The CDC also pushes a creeping prohibitionism one tiny grant, one tiny nudge at a time. Among the latest is spending $4 million to "develop web-based tools to evaluate the potential impact of prevention strategies to reduce youth exposure to alcohol marketing." The award went to the Center for Alcohol Marketing and Youth, a group more committed to fighting the alcohol industry than anything else.

The CDC is supposed to be "dedicated to protecting health and promoting quality of life through the prevention and control of disease, injury, and disability." With many public health scourges of the 20th century long defeated, remaining challenges can seem insurmountable. Inch by inch progress against the remaining real challenges to public health isn't going to land congressional funding boosts after gushers of fawning publicity. Changing the subject and even changing the definition of public health fixes that problem for the CDC. That's why the CDC's public health mission quietly transforms into political health manipulation.

Dan Gainor is the Boone Pickens Fellow and the Media Research Center's vice president for business and culture.

===


.

 

[Tom McDowell]

Via PFIF

Pandemics will be a bigger killer than wars - expert
by Joanne Bladd on Wednesday, 06 January 2010

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/578043-pandemics-will-be-a-bigger-killer-than-wars---expert

Pandemics will be responsible for more deaths than war in the 21st century, a global health expert told a conference in Al Ain on Wednesday.

Sir Richard Feachem, professor of global health at the University of California, San Francisco and University of California, Berkeley, told delegates that deaths from viruses such as the H1N1 strain would far outstrip those lost in battle, and warned that worldwide, there are wide gaps in pandemic preparedness.

“Short of a nuclear war, there is no way war and conflict could match the number of deaths generated by the spread of pandemics,” he said.

“If swine flu becomes highly virulent, things could become much worse... Global governance for pandemic preparedness is in poor shape, and is not in place to allow countries to join hands and cope.”

According to World Health Organisation data, the Eastern Mediterranean Region has reported more than 28,700 cases of swine flu. Of the 22 countries in the region, Kuwait has recorded the highest number of cases with 6,640 H1N1 infections.

In second place is Saudi Arabia, with 4,119 H1N1 infections, followed by Oman with 3,829 and Egypt with 2,494.

Sir Feachem, who was speaking during the Global Healthcare Conference, at UAE University, noted the swine flu pandemic had been comparatively mild, but said a superbug with a higher fatality rate could wipe out millions.

“[If] a new pandemic develops that, unlike H1N1, has a high fatality rate and is easily transmitted from human to human, deaths of 100 million people is not unlikely.

"It could also cause economic collapse – people would simply stop going to work. Globally we should be ready for early identification of these new pandemics, and have in place containment and coping methods," Feachem, a former under-secretary general of the United Nations, added.

Dr Vittoria Colizza, of the Institute of Scientific Interchange. Italy, described the H1N1 pandemic as a “dress rehearsal” for a more severe virus.

“We were lucky that the H1N1 is not a particularly worrisome pandemic. We can use H1N1 as a dress rehearsal for what we did right and what we did wrong, and more importantly what we can do better next time."


===

Put this up to fill the void off of a double post. It occurred to me that I've been following the other flu boards and not posting much info here.

Couple of trends to report:

One, the issue of H1N1 mutating to a more virulent (deadly), tami-flu resistant strain is being reported with more frequency.

Turkey has had such an issue with high numbers of fatalities the government stopped reporting to prevent panic. Recent sequences from Turkey indicate mutations similar to Ukraine and other parts of the world. Indicating the mutations are widespread and more and more the norm - not the exception.

Ukraine still having many cases daily, with hospitalizations and reported fatalities. One wonders if the reporting of the fatalities is a lagging artifact of the initial onset or current. In any case the new infections are still very high (one hundred thousand NEW cases reported today).

The trend in the USA was a stark decrease in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Place this from Thanksgiving forward.

Deaths were being reported sporadically, presumably as a result of infections from October, November and December. However I'm beginning to see more reports of new deaths from recent infections.

Today, Dr. Niman points out re-infection rates may be high due to recent evolutionary changes.

This indicates natural immunity may again be minimal.

===

H1N1 Re-Infections Confirmed
Recombinomics Commentary 13:50
January 6, 2010

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01061002/H1N1_Reinfect.html

We report on 3 patients with confirmed influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 reinfection after successful treatment with oseltamivir.

The above comments are from a report in the current EID of re-infections by H1N1 in lab confirmed cases treated with Tamiflu in Chile. This report follows media reports of other cases in the United States with at least two lab confirmed infections in individual patients. The other reports had larger gaps in disease onset dates and those re-infections are similar to many anecdotal reports.

Many of these re-infections can be explained by a weak response to infections with low viral loads. The above group of three patients had recurrences within a few weeks of recovery, which may have been too soon for optimal protective immunity. However, other media reports describe lab confirmed cases that are 6 weeks to 3 months apart. Since H1N1 has only recently begun to evolve at a more rapid pace, it is unlikely that the re-infections were due to significant genetic changes.

Additional evidence for weak responses comes from the pandemic H1N1 clinical trial in Australia over the summer. Although prior pandemic H1N1 infections were among the exclusion criteria, 31% of patients enrolled had titers of 40 or higher at baseline, suggesting that many cases were mild and the patient did not get tested for H1N1 and did not associate the symptoms with H1N1.

However, these patients were vaccinated in the trial and a high percentage had a significant response, increasing titers four fold or higher. These data provided addition evidence that these initial infections produced sub-optimal immune response and protection.

Thus, several sources suggest initial immune responses to pandemic H1N1 are sub-optimal, so re-infections with similar or identical H1N1 are common, suggesting subsequent pandemic waves can be driven by an increase in viral load or minimal genetic changes.

===


.

 

[Tom McDowell]

Via Rhiza

Swine Flu Scare: A Trial Run for Something Far Worse?

Alan Sipress
Posted: January 5, 2010 09:44 AM

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-sipress/swine-flu-scare-a-trial-r_b_411547.html

Could the swine flu scare be a trial run for something far worse? Swine flu has given many a fright with parents lining up for hours to get their children vaccinated and hospital ICUs in some cities overflowing with patients. And the top pandemic flu expert at the World Health Organization, a veteran American flu hunter named Keiji Fukuda, has warned in recent weeks that the global epidemic isn't over yet. Still, for other people, swine flu has been an anticlimax, little more than a yawn.

Either way, swine flu is certain not to be the final chapter in the influenza saga. Here are five potential twists in the pandemic plot that flu specialists are watching for anxiously. Any one of these could spell a new, far more ruthless wave of disease.

1. The virus shifts its target.

Swine flu has so far proven no worse than regular seasonal flu for most people. But in a series of cases scattered across four continents, disease specialists have noticed that the virus has mutated, allowing it to strike deep inside the human lungs and cause illness that's far more severe, at times life-threatening.

Among viruses, influenza is exceptional because of its rare talent for mutating. So scientists are always on the lookout for ominous changes. Doctors in Norway sparked a fresh round of global anxiety this fall when they reported they'd detected a mutation in three hospital patients that had allowed swine flu to extend its range from the usual targets of the nose and throat and penetrate the lower airway. Similar mutations have been detected in at least six other countries, including the United States.

This lethal change has yet to become prevalent but if it does, the death toll could soar. After all, the lungs were the primary target for the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed more than 50 million people worldwide.

2. The virus steels itself against treatment.

The drug of choice for treating serious swine flu cases is Tamiflu. Yet in scores of cases this fall, scientists discovered that the virus had become resistant to this drug. Public health officials have been watching nervously for this development because resistance to Tamiflu is already widespread with seasonal flu.

Their fears were confirmed when doctors in Wales reported that five swine flu patients were infected with a resistant strain and that it had apparently spread from one person to another. More instances of Tamiflu resistance have surfaced in the United States, including in North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia and Washington state.

So far, Tamiflu resistance seems to be concentrated among patients with severely compromised immune systems. For instance, they had cancer, were undergoing chemotherapy or were receiving treatment after an organ transplant. Today, there are many more people with weakened immune systems - largely because of the prevalence of HIV infections - than during any previous flu pandemic, raising the urgent question: Will this be the recipe for a widespread, drug-resistant strain?

3. A killer emerges from Asia.

Swine flu is rarely lethal, but the virus called bird flu kills more than half of those known to catch it. And while the media has been focused on swine flu, bird flu has continued to circulate silently in East Asia and beyond.

Ever since bird flu stunned flu specialists by first jumping to people in Hong Kong more than a dozen years ago, it has relentlessly spread from country to country, thwarting the efforts of public health officials to root it out. Time after time, government officials have claimed to have the virus cornered only to see it break loose again. The longer scientists study this strain, the more similarities they've identified between bird flu and the devastating flu of 1918. One of America's most prominent public health experts has called bird flu the "kissing cousin" of Spanish flu.

The good news: bird flu has yet to figure out how to spread easily among people. But in at least six countries, it has already shown it can pass from one person to a second. With a few genetic tweaks to make it more contagious, tens of millions could die.

4. A sinister tryst breeds a new strain.

For flu specialists tracking swine flu, the nightmare is that it encounters bird flu and they combine, swapping genetic material. The result could be a hybrid strain that is as deadly as bird flu, with its 60 percent mortality rate, and as easy to catch as swine flu.

Influenza viruses are remarkable not just because of their facility at mutating. Unlike most viruses, one flu strain can actually trade attributes with another flu strain if they both infect the same human, or even pig, cell.

WHO's top official, Margaret Chan, urged the world's senior health experts this spring to keep their eyes out for just this development. Since then, flu hunters have watched closely as swine flu spread to countries like Vietnam and Egypt, places where bird flu is deeply entrenched and still killing people. While there's no evidence so far of what's called reassortment, WHO's director for East Asia repeated the warning in November. So did one of China's most prominent virologists, Zhong Nanshan, who helped blow the whistle on his government's cover up of SARS seven years ago. Noting that bird flu has been circulating there for a long time, he warned that that swine flu might hold the key to unlocking its horrors.

5. Novel threats spread beneath the radar.

As if H5N1 bird flu wasn't enough to fret about, there are other avian flu strains out there, and they may actually have an edge in the pandemic sweepstakes. They have names like H9N2 and H7. (The H's and N's refer to different types of proteins on the surface of a flu virus and are used to identify specific strains.) As with H5N1 bird flu, the vast majority of people on Earth have no immunity against them.

One of these little-noticed strains, H9N2, has already proven it can infect people, including several in China and Hong Kong. Some scientists believe that human cases are more common than most experts acknowledge and that the virus has already shown it can spread from one person to another. Like its better-known cousin, it has quietly spread across the birds of Asia and the Middle East on to Europe and Africa. Meantime, a separate family of flu strains, the H7s, has been circulating both in North America and Europe.

While these lesser-known viruses aren't as lethal as H5N1 bird flu, they've already demonstrated they're better at infecting humans. And if they start to get around, they could provoke a global outbreak that makes us nostalgic for the Pandemic of '09.

===

Alan Sipress is the author of the newly released, The Fatal Strain: On the Trail of Avian Flu and the Coming Pandemic, which was named by the Washington Post as one of the best books of 2009. He is a veteran foreign correspondent, previously based in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and has written extensively about the struggle between man and microbe. He is currently economics editor at the Washington Post.


===

.

 

[Tom McDowell]

"I Don't Want to Die in Chile:" Swine Flu in the Desert

Sally Thorner
Retired local news broadcaster
Posted: January 5, 2010 06:02 PM

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sally-thorner/i-dont-want-to-die-in-chi_b_412327.html

It was supposed to be a celebration.

Our son Everett had survived his first semester at Yale. He left his last exam to make it back to Baltimore for his mother's last newscast. I was retiring from TV news after more than 30 years at the anchor desk to write and be my husband's travel partner. All three of us were so looking forward to 'chilling in Chile.'

The best laid plans...

Hours after my sign-off, the blizzard of 2009 hit the East Coast. Before it would end a record-breaking 2 feet of snow would bury us and our travel plans. Not to be victimized by a little weather, we jumped in a rented SUV and drove to Raleigh, North Carolina to catch the only available flight that would connect with our international flight.

It wasn't easy, but we made it to Santiago. Our final destination was the remote Atacama. Billed as the driest place on earth, our eco- vacation in the high desert (8,000 feet high) awaited us. We were greeted by the Explora staff, a warm and caring group of Chileans that we would bond with in a way nobody could have predicted.

Our first excursion was a gentle hike through Death Valley that ended with a 200- foot vertical sand dune that you slide down... fun! Ev was a bit weary from the trip (we thought) so Brian and I decided to go it alone. After going back to the lodge for a late dinner and a magical visit to Explora's observatory to star gaze... we were in heaven.

The next morning we joined a group bike ride through some salt flats... the payoff being a dip in a lake as salty as the Dead Sea. Everyone enjoyed the cooling swim except for Ev who couldn't stop shivering in spite of the heat. Our boy wasn't himself. Could it be it exhaustion, jet lag, or altitude?

The story was dominating my newscasts and my husband's medical journals... but it was happening to other people's sons and daughters. Everett had all the signs: high fever (106!),
Excruciating head and body aches, nausea, listlessness, etc. But it took an early morning visit (courtesy of our hosts at Explora) to a clinic in the nearby town of San Pedro to confirm what we already knew: the boy had Swine Flu.

The epidemic had hit South America months ago... which is why the local doctor had plenty of Tamiflu on hand. We received two prescriptions: one for the patient who's already sick, the second for his dad who would be sleeping with him for the next week (needless to say neither guy had gotten the vaccine.)

It is not an exaggeration to say I have never been so terrified in my life. Making matters worse, it was the first time my husband, an intensive care doctor who sees the sickest of the sick, couldn't make him better. A few days into the nightmare Brian had me looking into our options... an evacuation to sea level and a referred infectious disease doc in Santiago could only help. But the boy was too weak to move. He couldn't leave his bed without help and passed out in the shower.

He was practically incoherent when he murmured, "I don't want to die in Chile."

Brian was in touch with colleagues at Johns Hopkins Hospital who instructed him to watch for signs of pneumonia. Explora guests celebrated Christmas with a barbecue off-site... we stayed with our son in his room which the wonderful staff had equipped with Gatorade, a vaporizer, computer, and DVD's. Explora is not a luxury resort, but it may be the most nurturing place on earth.

Happy New Year!
After a harrowing week none of us will ever forget (including our new best friends in Chile) we made our way back to Santiago. The only souvenir from Atacama... a lingering bronchitis. The patient is 12 pounds lighter (so much for the Freshman Ten.) He is now home, enjoying his last week of winter break before returning to New Haven. His parents will take longer to heal... and tell anyone who will listen: Get vaccinated. H1N1 is not yesterday's news or someone else's story. It could be yours tomorrow.

===


.

 

[xtreme_right]

I don't remember reading before that

The flu could pick up again in the late spring or early summer, he said. It likes the opposite kind of weather that the seasonal flu — the trusted cold-weather virus – flourished in.

Has anyone heard what went on with H1N1 in the other hemisphere this past season? Wouldn't that be a sign of what would happen here this Spring?

xr
http://missionlocal.org/2010/04/its-the-swine-flu-anniversary/

It’s Swine Flu’s Anniversary
By: Deia De Brito
|
April 9, 2010 – 5:09 pm
| Filed Under: Front Page, Health, Topics | Tagged: Department of Public Health , dr. charles chiu , swine flu , vaccine
Share this Article!
It’s been almost a year since the first diagnosed case of swine flu in San Francisco and six months since President Obama declared the pandemic a national emergency.

Last October, the city’s public health department administered 20,000 vaccines in a three-day period. Then, one day in January, close to 14,000 people. To date, public officials said that about 400,000 San Franciscans have been vaccinated – that’s almost half the city.

That has helped avoid the pandemic that the government warned might cause up to 90,000 deaths in the United States. The virus only brought 12,000 – 546 in California – and the numbers have dwindled. In San Francisco – where only eight people have died of swine flu – providers say the mad rush to vaccinate has also slowed.

But Dr. Charles Chiu, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, said people shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the swine flu as last season’s virus.

The flu could pick up again in the late spring or early summer, he said. It likes the opposite kind of weather that the seasonal flu — the trusted cold-weather virus – flourished in.

But why worry? While the seasonal flu killed about 36,000 Americans a year, the swine flu only killed 12,000 in its one-year run. And swine flu has virtually replaced the seasonal flu – about 99 percent of flu cases are swine flu cases. The new pandemic actually saved lives, according to the numbers.

But Dr. Chiu said while fatalities were down, the numbers don’t take into account the age group of those who died of swine flu – mostly the young or the pregnant. With the seasonal flu, 90 percent of the deaths were in people 65 and older, but 88 percent of the swine flu deaths took people under 65.

“It does cause fewer deaths but if you actually look at it from the point of view of years of life lost, this flu is actually worse,” said Chiu.

He said the elderly are largely immune to the virus because they’ve got the 1918 flu virus in their systems, which stayed in the air for decades after the fact. That flu – the Spanish Influenza – killed up to 40 million people worldwide and 600,000 Americans and the majority were healthy young adults.

The director of the Viral Diagnostics and Discovery Center in China Basin, Chiu uses a ViroChip to see how viruses mutate over time. The three-inch glass slide has thousands of spots of DNA from almost all known viruses. Swine flu, he said, hasn’t seen any changes yet – but he’s keeping a careful eye on it.

“The virus could potentially become as virulent as the 1918 flu virus,” said Chiu.

“The good news is that we haven’t seen any mutation so far,” Dr. Chiu said, adding that the swine flu seems to mutate more slowly than the seasonal flu, which required new shots every year because of it’s antigenetic shift, or small changes that make a virus resistant to a vaccine.

There’s always something to worry about.

The other possibility for mutation is called antigenetic drift. That’s when viruses meet, mix, and become stronger. The seasonal flu has been virtually replaced by swine flu but Dr. Chiu and other researchers are watching out for cases where swine flu and seasonal strike a person at the same time. That combination could cause a mutation, but Dr. Chiu said there have been no more than five such flu victims and no mutations observed.

The other kind of mutation could bring birds into the picture. “The swine flu virus could mix with bird flu and produce an entirely new strain that may be extremely virulent or deadly,” said Dr. Chiu.

Chiu says the reason for the recent uptake in southern states like Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabama could likely be due to low vaccination rates there. A study released April 2 by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that about 24 percent of the country has been vaccinated. Georgia has among the lowest vaccination rates in the country. California is in the middle, with a third of children and 18 percent of adults immunized.

A Walgreens spokesperson said vaccinations have slowed down since mid-January. A Safeway pharmacist said vaccinations there have dropped by half in the past five weeks. Maxim Health Systems, a mobile immunization clinic that administered over 3,100 swine flu shots at 59 clinics in San Francisco in the past three months, has slowed to a stop.


"H1N1 Flu Shot Here Today." The Walgreens on 16th and Mission.
The uptake in the Southeast could also be the beginnings of a third wave making its way west. Last year, the Southern states were hit by a second wave in August, while California experienced its second wave in October.

“The more people are vaccinated, the less likely we’ll see another wave,” said Dr. Chiu. The vaccine comes in the form of a nasal spray or an injection. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working on a vaccine for the end of this year, which will combine the seasonal vaccine with the swine flu vaccine.

“It’s our hope that this vaccine will remain effective for some time – whether it’s effective next year depends on mutation,” he added.

 

[SassyinAZ]

Useful info for me so I thought perhaps someone else may need it as well.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63E3VU20100415

Swine flu can damage kidneys, doctors find

Thu, Apr 15 2010

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Patients who became severely ill with H1N1 swine flu last year often developed kidney failure, which worsened their illness and raised costs, Canadian researchers reported on Wednesday.

Doctors should be on the lookout for kidney damage in patients who are hospitalized with the virus, they told a meeting of the National Kidney Foundation.

"It's concerning that so many people got some form of kidney injury, although it was reversible in the majority of them," Dr. Manish Sood of the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg said in a statement.

Sood's team looked at the cases of 47 critically ill patients with confirmed H1N1 infections who were admitted to one of seven intensive care units in Manitoba, a Western Canadian province.

Two-thirds had kidney injury or kidney failure. Eleven percent of them needed dialysis and 16 percent died.

"Patients who come to the ICU (intensive care unit) with critical illness who also have kidney injury stay longer, take up more resources, and have a much higher chance of dying."

Swine flu emerged a year ago in the United States and Mexico and spread around the world in six weeks, killing thousands of people. It has hit children and young adults especially hard.

The World Health Organization's Emergency Committee says it is as severe as influenza pandemics in 1957 and 1968 and remains a threat, especially to healthy young adults.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates H1N1 has killed 12,000 Americans and put more than 265,000 in the hospital.

Any type of serious infection or critical illness can cause kidney injury, Sood said, who added that viral infections like influenza also caused muscle breakdown. Kidneys are damaged as they filter out the broken-down muscle cells.

 

[summerthyme]

Sassy... how ARE you doing? I suspect this article isn't news to you, unfortunately.

NASTY virus... it's funny how many people still think it was all a hoax, "made up" to sell vaccines. Some of us only wish it was true...

Summerthyme

 

[SassyinAZ]

Sassy... how ARE you doing? I suspect this article isn't news to you, unfortunately.

NASTY virus... it's funny how many people still think it was all a hoax, "made up" to sell vaccines. Some of us only wish it was true...

Summerthyme

Yeah, not news to me, but the confirmation is oddly comforting and honestly, I'm still in a bit of denial about it all and believing I can get back to where I was before. That's part of what popped out in the article for me, it was reversible for most, so maybe it isn't just wishful thinking.

In the meantime, I give lots of blood and hang out with the nephrologist, and outside of being exhausted, I don't feel bad.

I just shake my head at the hoax claims, for some of us it is very real and not just a passing bug. For my premature twin nieces too, they are doing well but continue to deal with their early birth issues -- Mom pretty well recovered with some lingering lung issues, she was asthmatic though.

Thanks for asking and remembering!

 

[BlueNewton]

Interesting. that was my theory posted last year when the thing got going. I would love to hear what happened in the southern hemisphere over the summer--but not a whole lot, I would guess, or we would know about it.