Echo 5
Funniest guy on TB2K
I used to like them. Then I noticed an abrupt shift toward towing the government line.
WAR China Signals a Military Response to a Taiwan Visit by Pelosi
- Thread starter jward
- Start date
I used to like them. Then I noticed an abrupt shift toward towing the government line.
jward
passin' thru
We're still giving the assurance our policys not changed...
Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
White House’s Kirby: We do not support Taiwan’s independence
View: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1554200886947491840?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
Insider Paper
@TheInsiderPaper
White House’s Kirby: We do not support Taiwan’s independence
View: https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1554200886947491840?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
jward
passin' thru
This does make one wonder if Mr. Pilosis' drunk driving arrest and stock irregularities made it to the news as part of a pressure campaign. Might even be as simple as the US is doin' their buddy XI a solid and helping him look good domestically.
Now I'm wondering if NK will be adding a nuke test as party favour for the festivities ??
Now I'm wondering if NK will be adding a nuke test as party favour for the festivities ??
jward
passin' thru
Here Are The 5 Chinese Military Response Scenarios If Pelosi Visits Taiwan
by Tyler Durden
Update(1840ET): FT is out with some further details on the White House's handling of the Pelosi trip, now being watched carefully around the world...
Concerning strained and now fast deteriorating relations with China, Newsquawk earlier Monday had the following details in a note on Thursday's Biden-Xi phone call:
If indeed it's accurate that Xi got "tough" in the call with Biden, expressing Beijing's 'red lines' directly to the US president, this is certainly recipe for something big in terms of a major Chinese response (of course... in what form - diplomatic or military - nobody knows) should Pelosi show up in Taipei this week.
Amid concerns that if she lands with fighter jet escort guiding her military transport plane - which has been widely reported to be set for Tuesday night - this could trigger nothing short of a shooting war with China.
And now, a number of military analysis publications are examining the various possible 'worst case scenarios'. One independent analyst and China-Taiwan watcher has laid out a full range of hypothetical, albeit realistic scenarios involving different potential levels of Chinese aggression against the self-ruled island of Taiwan.
Below is an excerpt from an insightful post titled Red Clouds of War Looming Over Taiwan by a Westerner who is a Taiwan-based researcher...
Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The PLA occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.
Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.
Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.
Scenario 4: The Full Monty – a proper invasion. Total air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattacks to paralyze virtually all military, governmental, and civilian communication and shut down critical infrastructure. Aggressive naval and aerial engagements to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlespace superiority, followed by sustained aerial assaults by fighters and bombers on military targets. A decapitation strike at Taipei by special forces units to try to seize key leadership personnel. Well-coordinated insider treason and sabotage actions by gangsters, planted CCP agents, and other groups sympathetic to China – the so-called “5th column”. An amphibious assault with close air support from fighters, helicopters, and battle drones at one or more locations in Taiwan, and very possibly a move to seize a major port, such as Keelung, Taipei Port, Taichung, or Kaohsiung. Then hundreds of thousands of troops would start rolling in until the island was occupied. That would be the plan, anyway. PLA success in such an endeavor is very unclear. But they could do a hell of a lot of damage trying. And yes, they might actually succeed, at least partially, such as in seizing and holding the region around Taipei.
Scenario 5: Worst Case (short of nuclear) scenario. Full air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattack, aggressive naval and aerial attacks to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlefield superiority, followed by aerial assaults by fighters and bomber on military targets and area bombing of civilian targets. There are massive casualties, and Taiwan is crushed by brute force, surrenders, and then the occupiers enter the country and take it over.
The full analysis can be read here.
* * *
Update(1509ET): The White House in an afternoon press briefing condemned Beijing's escalating rhetoric after it was widely reportedly hours earlier that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will likely touch down in Taiwan Tuesday evening. There's speculation she could even spend the night, based on anonymously sourced statements to Taiwan officials.
"There’s just no reason for this to escalate," White House national security spokesman John Kirby said as a warning to China. "There’s every reason given the our national security interests — as well as the interest of our allies and partners that are that are staking the Indo Pacific on any given day — there’s every reason for this to not escalate." Kirby didn't confirm whether she'll go through with it.
China reiterated over the weekend and into Monday that it will take "strong and resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity" - seeing in a possible Pelosi visit a violation of 'red lines'. "Put simply, there is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing U.S. policy into some sort of crisis conflict or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait," Kirby continued in his statement.
Kirby blamed China's actions of staging provocative military drills both across from Taiwan and elsewhere in the South China Sea as a sign Beijing "appears to be positioning itself to potentially take further steps in the coming days, and perhaps over a longer time horizon." He added:
Kirby further repeated the White House stance that it won't interfere with members of Congress making their own decisions on visiting Taiwan.
- INDICATIONS CHINA MILITARY MIGHT RESPOND TO PELOSI TRIP: KIRBY
- ESCALATION IN TAIWAN STRAIT SERVES NO ONE'S INTEREST: US
- US WILL ENSURE PELOSI'S SAFETY IF SHE VISITS TAIWAN: KIRBY
- WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE WILL NOT TAKE THE BAIT, NOR WILL WE BE INTIMIDATED -KIRBY
- KIRBY ON TAIWAN: PELOSI HAS NOT CONFIRMED HER TRAVEL PLANS
- PELOSI HAS THE RIGHT TO VISIT TAIWAN: KIRBY
"Nothing has changed. There’s no drama to talk to. It is not without precedent for the Speaker of the House to go to Taiwan,” he said. "Nothing about this potential, potential business — which, oh by the way, has precedent — would change the status quo and the world should reject any PRC effort to use it to do so."
Chinese officials and state media are vowing a swift, severe response if Pelosi flies into Taiwan...
Meanwhile the FT is out with some further fresh details related to White House scrambling ahead of Pelosi's possible visit to the self-ruled island: "President Joe Biden dispatched senior officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to lay out the risks to Pelosi, but people familiar with the situation said she had decided to press ahead with the landmark trip," FT wrote.
* * *
Update(10:55ET): The vast majority of breathless Western media reports about Nancy Pelosi's now "imminent" Taiwan visit are being sourced to Taiwanese media and officials; and among Taiwanese outlets it seems to race is on to produce more and more specific detailed predictions. For example, this is the latest out of Taiwan tabloid ETtoday - picked up by international news wires: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will arrive at Songshan Airport Tuesday evening at 10:30pm local time.
At the same time The Wall Street Journal is reporting Monday that "she's definitely coming" - based on an unnamed source in contact with top Taiwan officials:
And now being reported by Bloomberg - minutes following the WSJ:
And yet Pelosi herself - not to mention the White House - could likely be very much on the fence given China's military has ramped up threats, and is now on a war-footing, based particularly on harsher quotes coming out in state media on Monday. Taiwan's defense ministry has said "no comment" when asked to confirm is she's arriving.
China has also announced closure of waters in the South China Sea amid ongoing PLA navy drills.
After weekend drills, specifically in response to reports of a Pelosi Taiwan visit, more have been announced, set from Tuesday through Friday.
This as the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group continues to patrol waters near Taiwan - possibly preparing to respond to any aggressive acts from China which could threaten a potential Pelosi visit to the self-ruled island.
More on the US strike group's movements... the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship is also said to be headed for Taiwan.
* * *
US equity markets are accelerating their losses suddenly this morning (after briefly touching unchanged from overnight weakness) following headlines that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday night.
Liberty Times reports, citing people familiar with the matter, Pelosi plans to visit the Legislative Yuan and meet lawmakers on Wednesday.
However, the US and Taiwan are still preparing for last minute changes, the paper adds.
Futures were sliding already but the Pelosi headlines pushed them to overnight lows...
Bonds are bid with 10Y Yields tumbling back to unchanged...
The offshore Yuan also tumbled on the report...
Interestingly, crude prices are notably lower (after disappointing China PMIs) and are accelerating lower after the Pelosi-Taiwan headlines...
China meanwhile Monday once again warned its military is prepared to take action if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follows through on a landmark visit to Taiwan.
According to her published itinerary, which does not as yet name Taiwan - this could see her flying to Taiwan after her delegation visits Malaysia and just ahead of going to South Korea.
Amid Chinese PLA drills ongoing in regional waters, and with the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group also in the South China Sea, Nikkei writes that "The U.S. military is moving assets, including aircraft carriers and large planes, closer to Taiwan ahead of an anticipated but unconfirmed visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi."
The PLA military also on Monday issued a fresh propaganda video saying essentially 'we're ready for war' - consistent with prior messages circulating on official Chinese military channels...
As FT notes additionally of PLA muscle-flexing as a warning to Pelosi: "China’s PLA also on Saturday carried out live-fire exercises in Pintang, a coastal area in south-eastern Fujian province about 125km from Taiwan. State media also broadcast footage of a Chinese destroyer firing its weapons in the South China Sea, through which the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group is believed to be sailing after visiting Singapore."
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Here Are The 5 Chinese Military Response Scenarios If Pelosi Visits Taiwan
by Tyler Durden
Update(1840ET): FT is out with some further details on the White House's handling of the Pelosi trip, now being watched carefully around the world...
Concerning strained and now fast deteriorating relations with China, Newsquawk earlier Monday had the following details in a note on Thursday's Biden-Xi phone call:
If indeed it's accurate that Xi got "tough" in the call with Biden, expressing Beijing's 'red lines' directly to the US president, this is certainly recipe for something big in terms of a major Chinese response (of course... in what form - diplomatic or military - nobody knows) should Pelosi show up in Taipei this week.
Amid concerns that if she lands with fighter jet escort guiding her military transport plane - which has been widely reported to be set for Tuesday night - this could trigger nothing short of a shooting war with China.
And now, a number of military analysis publications are examining the various possible 'worst case scenarios'. One independent analyst and China-Taiwan watcher has laid out a full range of hypothetical, albeit realistic scenarios involving different potential levels of Chinese aggression against the self-ruled island of Taiwan.
Below is an excerpt from an insightful post titled Red Clouds of War Looming Over Taiwan by a Westerner who is a Taiwan-based researcher...
Scenario 1: The minimalist approach. The PLA occupies Jinmen or Matsu islands, as well as Taiwan’s islands in the South China Sea, and maybe even the Penghu Islands. They also declare part or all of the Taiwan Strait a “no go” zone to foreign military shipping. This would probably be fairly easy for the PLA, and Taiwan would probably not want to overcommit to naval action against the huge PLA Navy (PLAN) if it didn’t directly approach the main island.
Scenario 2: Hybrid warfare. Some sort of partial naval and aerial blockade of Taiwan intended to interfere with the economy, combined with stepped-up harassment, such as direct flyovers of Taiwan’s territory by PLA Air Force (PLAAF) jets, or incursions into Taiwan’s maritime space by China’s naval militia, protected by PLAN warships. This might also be accompanied by cyberattacks designed to shut down the internet and other infrastructure for days at a time. Taiwan would have no choice to assert a stiff defensive posture, resulting in real engagements between Taiwanese and Chinese forces, posing a serious risk of escalation.
Scenario 3: A serious attack but no invasion. This would involve air and sea warfare only, no boots on the ground. A full aerial and naval blockade, a protracted set of naval and aerial battles designed to degrade Taiwan’s military, combined with ballistic missile attacks on military targets. Aggressive cyberattacks turning off the internet and shutting down critical infrastructure for days or weeks. Once air and naval superiority were established, China could pick off targets at will, ratcheting up the threat until the government breaks.
Scenario 4: The Full Monty – a proper invasion. Total air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattacks to paralyze virtually all military, governmental, and civilian communication and shut down critical infrastructure. Aggressive naval and aerial engagements to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlespace superiority, followed by sustained aerial assaults by fighters and bombers on military targets. A decapitation strike at Taipei by special forces units to try to seize key leadership personnel. Well-coordinated insider treason and sabotage actions by gangsters, planted CCP agents, and other groups sympathetic to China – the so-called “5th column”. An amphibious assault with close air support from fighters, helicopters, and battle drones at one or more locations in Taiwan, and very possibly a move to seize a major port, such as Keelung, Taipei Port, Taichung, or Kaohsiung. Then hundreds of thousands of troops would start rolling in until the island was occupied. That would be the plan, anyway. PLA success in such an endeavor is very unclear. But they could do a hell of a lot of damage trying. And yes, they might actually succeed, at least partially, such as in seizing and holding the region around Taipei.
Scenario 5: Worst Case (short of nuclear) scenario. Full air and sea blockade, massive ballistic missile attacks on military targets, massive cyberattack, aggressive naval and aerial attacks to degrade Taiwan’s forces and achieve battlefield superiority, followed by aerial assaults by fighters and bomber on military targets and area bombing of civilian targets. There are massive casualties, and Taiwan is crushed by brute force, surrenders, and then the occupiers enter the country and take it over.
The full analysis can be read here.
* * *
Update(1509ET): The White House in an afternoon press briefing condemned Beijing's escalating rhetoric after it was widely reportedly hours earlier that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will likely touch down in Taiwan Tuesday evening. There's speculation she could even spend the night, based on anonymously sourced statements to Taiwan officials.
"There’s just no reason for this to escalate," White House national security spokesman John Kirby said as a warning to China. "There’s every reason given the our national security interests — as well as the interest of our allies and partners that are that are staking the Indo Pacific on any given day — there’s every reason for this to not escalate." Kirby didn't confirm whether she'll go through with it.
China reiterated over the weekend and into Monday that it will take "strong and resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity" - seeing in a possible Pelosi visit a violation of 'red lines'. "Put simply, there is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing U.S. policy into some sort of crisis conflict or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait," Kirby continued in his statement.
Kirby blamed China's actions of staging provocative military drills both across from Taiwan and elsewhere in the South China Sea as a sign Beijing "appears to be positioning itself to potentially take further steps in the coming days, and perhaps over a longer time horizon." He added:
Kirby further repeated the White House stance that it won't interfere with members of Congress making their own decisions on visiting Taiwan.
- INDICATIONS CHINA MILITARY MIGHT RESPOND TO PELOSI TRIP: KIRBY
- ESCALATION IN TAIWAN STRAIT SERVES NO ONE'S INTEREST: US
- US WILL ENSURE PELOSI'S SAFETY IF SHE VISITS TAIWAN: KIRBY
- WHITE HOUSE SAYS WE WILL NOT TAKE THE BAIT, NOR WILL WE BE INTIMIDATED -KIRBY
- KIRBY ON TAIWAN: PELOSI HAS NOT CONFIRMED HER TRAVEL PLANS
- PELOSI HAS THE RIGHT TO VISIT TAIWAN: KIRBY
"Nothing has changed. There’s no drama to talk to. It is not without precedent for the Speaker of the House to go to Taiwan,” he said. "Nothing about this potential, potential business — which, oh by the way, has precedent — would change the status quo and the world should reject any PRC effort to use it to do so."
Chinese officials and state media are vowing a swift, severe response if Pelosi flies into Taiwan...
Meanwhile the FT is out with some further fresh details related to White House scrambling ahead of Pelosi's possible visit to the self-ruled island: "President Joe Biden dispatched senior officials, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, to lay out the risks to Pelosi, but people familiar with the situation said she had decided to press ahead with the landmark trip," FT wrote.
* * *
Update(10:55ET): The vast majority of breathless Western media reports about Nancy Pelosi's now "imminent" Taiwan visit are being sourced to Taiwanese media and officials; and among Taiwanese outlets it seems to race is on to produce more and more specific detailed predictions. For example, this is the latest out of Taiwan tabloid ETtoday - picked up by international news wires: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will arrive at Songshan Airport Tuesday evening at 10:30pm local time.
At the same time The Wall Street Journal is reporting Monday that "she's definitely coming" - based on an unnamed source in contact with top Taiwan officials:
And now being reported by Bloomberg - minutes following the WSJ:
And yet Pelosi herself - not to mention the White House - could likely be very much on the fence given China's military has ramped up threats, and is now on a war-footing, based particularly on harsher quotes coming out in state media on Monday. Taiwan's defense ministry has said "no comment" when asked to confirm is she's arriving.
China has also announced closure of waters in the South China Sea amid ongoing PLA navy drills.
After weekend drills, specifically in response to reports of a Pelosi Taiwan visit, more have been announced, set from Tuesday through Friday.
This as the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group continues to patrol waters near Taiwan - possibly preparing to respond to any aggressive acts from China which could threaten a potential Pelosi visit to the self-ruled island.
More on the US strike group's movements... the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship is also said to be headed for Taiwan.
* * *
US equity markets are accelerating their losses suddenly this morning (after briefly touching unchanged from overnight weakness) following headlines that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday night.
Liberty Times reports, citing people familiar with the matter, Pelosi plans to visit the Legislative Yuan and meet lawmakers on Wednesday.
However, the US and Taiwan are still preparing for last minute changes, the paper adds.
Futures were sliding already but the Pelosi headlines pushed them to overnight lows...
Bonds are bid with 10Y Yields tumbling back to unchanged...
The offshore Yuan also tumbled on the report...
Interestingly, crude prices are notably lower (after disappointing China PMIs) and are accelerating lower after the Pelosi-Taiwan headlines...
China meanwhile Monday once again warned its military is prepared to take action if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follows through on a landmark visit to Taiwan.
According to her published itinerary, which does not as yet name Taiwan - this could see her flying to Taiwan after her delegation visits Malaysia and just ahead of going to South Korea.
Amid Chinese PLA drills ongoing in regional waters, and with the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group also in the South China Sea, Nikkei writes that "The U.S. military is moving assets, including aircraft carriers and large planes, closer to Taiwan ahead of an anticipated but unconfirmed visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi."
The PLA military also on Monday issued a fresh propaganda video saying essentially 'we're ready for war' - consistent with prior messages circulating on official Chinese military channels...
As FT notes additionally of PLA muscle-flexing as a warning to Pelosi: "China’s PLA also on Saturday carried out live-fire exercises in Pintang, a coastal area in south-eastern Fujian province about 125km from Taiwan. State media also broadcast footage of a Chinese destroyer firing its weapons in the South China Sea, through which the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group is believed to be sailing after visiting Singapore."
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
The problem is that once the first live round is expended in anger it will be the devil's price to get that T-Rex back in the box.
Henry Bowman
Veteran Member
Video from our very own Mongo. Great advice as always giving his take on the next day or so.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YEJWy4Lu5g
RT 3:37
RT 3:37
okie-carbine
Veteran Member
It looks like her plane is bypassing Taiwan for now. If she is on SPAR20
vector7
Dot Collector
Tucker Carlson calls Pelosi's probable visit to Taiwan "one of the weirdest moments in the weirdest presidency in American history."
RT 7min
View: https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1554267332360404993?s=20&t=odienU__VK4Q7343OJCs1A
Continued from above...^^^
Catch it before YT pulls it down...
Tucker Carlson Tonight (1hr)
Aug 1, 2022
View: https://youtu.be/JPevFRJ7xOA?t=796
Jesse Watters: Why is Pelosi doing this? (5min)
Aug 1, 2022
Fox News host Jesse Watters reacts to China's propaganda video prior to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan on 'Jesse Watters Primetime.'
View: https://youtu.be/RvyV_qe23pg
RT 7min
View: https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1554267332360404993?s=20&t=odienU__VK4Q7343OJCs1A
Continued from above...^^^
Catch it before YT pulls it down...
Tucker Carlson Tonight (1hr)
Aug 1, 2022
Jesse Watters: Why is Pelosi doing this? (5min)
Aug 1, 2022
Fox News host Jesse Watters reacts to China's propaganda video prior to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan on 'Jesse Watters Primetime.'
Last edited:
Cowgirl4christ
Senior Member
I’m trying to understand the end game here. Is she trying to weaken Biden’s presidency so that they can get him out and get started with the next part of the Great Reset or whatever? I mean… if China truly has their coast set up for war if she lands, then if she doesn’t go there, they might as well invade Taiwan since they are staged anyway. This seems very well planned out.
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
China calls US House Speaker Pelosi’s expected Taiwan visit 'provocative', threatens countermeasures
Mrs Pelosi is said to be meeting Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and visiting the Parliament on Wednesday. Read more at straitstimes.com.
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan, reports say, despite China warnings
Updated 4 Mins Ago
TAIPEI/BEIJING (REUTERS, AFP, NYTIMES) - US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was set to visit Taiwan on Tuesday (Aug 2), various reports said, as China warned that its military would never “sit idly by” if she were to visit the self-ruled island claimed by Beijing.
One of the newspapers, Taiwan's Liberty Times, said Mrs Pelosi was scheduled to arrive on Tuesday night and visit Taiwan’s Parliament on Wednesday morning before continuing her Asia trip, which began earlier on Monday in Singapore. Reuters could not immediately confirm the reports.
The Financial Times said she would meet Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday in Taipei.
Taiwan's EBC News said Mrs Pelosi would arrive in Taipei after 10pm on Tuesday and stay at the Grand Hyatt Taipei hotel. She would leave the island on Wednesday afternoon, after meeting Ms Tsai.
Both CNN and Taiwan’s TVBS news cited unnamed sources on Monday to report that Mrs Pelosi does indeed plan to include Taiwan on her Asia tour.
Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it had no comment on reports of Mrs Pelosi’s travel plans.
On Tuesday, Taiwan's official central news agency, citing unidentified sources, reported that the island's defence ministry has "reinforced" its combat alertness level from Tuesday morning to Thursday noon.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that a potential visit to Taiwan by Mrs Pelosi would be entirely her decision, but called on China not to escalate tensions in the event of a visit.
“If the speaker does decide to visit and China tries to create some kind of crisis or otherwise escalate tensions, that would be entirely on Beijing,” Mr Blinken said after nuclear nonproliferation talks at the United Nations.
“We are looking for them (China) – in the event she decides to visit – to act responsibly and not to engage in any escalation going forward.”
In an editorial on Monday, China Daily newspaper said that should Mrs Pelosi visit Taiwan, it will be a watershed event in cross-Strait relations as well as Sino-US relations.
"The Biden administration would lose Beijing's trust by challenging the latter's redline again. The separation of powers in the US by no means makes Pelosi's Taiwan trip excusable," it said.
"If she does visit the island, it will deal a heavy blow to the already precarious Sino-US ties and add even more uncertainties to the already volatile global situation."
The Taiwan dollar slipped to its lowest levels in more than two years on the weaker side of 30 per US dollar and investor worries about a potential Pelosi visit and China’s reaction appeared to be behind Tuesday’s declines in China’s yuan and north Asian stock markets
Amid widespread speculation over whether she would make a stop in Taiwan, Mrs Pelosi’s office said on Sunday that she was leading a congressional delegation to the region that would include visits to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan.
“The trip will focus on mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance in the Indo-Pacific region,” her office said, referring to the Asia-Pacific.
The statement did not mention Taiwan. But visits by US officials there are usually kept secret until delegations land.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said earlier on Monday that it would be “a gross interference in China’s internal affairs” if Mrs Pelosi visits Taiwan, and warned that it would lead to “very serious developments and consequences”.
“We would like to tell the United States once again that China is standing by, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will never sit idly by, and China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Mr Zhao told a regular daily briefing.
Asked what kind of measures the PLA might take, Mr Zhao said: “If she dares to go, then let us wait and see.”
China views visits by US officials to Taiwan as sending an encouraging signal to the pro-independence camp in the island.
Washington does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is bound by US law to provide the island with the means to defend itself.
A visit by Mrs Pelosi, who is second in the line of succession to the US presidency and a long-time critic of China, would come amid worsening ties between Washington and Beijing.
Republican Newt Gingrich was the last House speaker to visit Taiwan, in 1997.
A video by the PLA's Eastern Theatre Command, which showed scenes of military exercises and preparations and was posted on state media sites on Monday evening, urged troops to “stand by in battle formation, be ready to fight upon command, bury all incoming enemies”.
With tensions rising along with Mrs Pelosi’s travels across Asia, Mr John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said the administration was concerned that China would potentially fire missiles into the Taiwan Strait, send warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense zone, or stage large-scale naval or air activities that cross the median line in the middle of the strait.
“There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing US policy into some sort of crisis or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait,” Mr Kirby said at a White House briefing.
“Meanwhile, our actions are not threatening, and they break no new ground. Nothing about this potential visit – potential visit – which by the way has precedent, would change the status quo," he said.
Mr Kirby did not say whether US intelligence agencies had detected any concrete indications of Chinese actions, but he was unusually specific in outlining the possible responses that the US anticipated.
White House officials have privately expressed concern that a visit by Mrs Pelosi would touch off a dangerous cycle of escalation in Asia at the same time Washington is already consumed with helping Ukraine fight off Russia’s invasion.
Mr Kirby said American officials did not necessarily anticipate an attack by China in response but cautioned that the possible military demonstrations of force could touch off conflict by mistake.
“It does increase the risk of miscalculation, which could lead to unintended consequences,” Mr Kirby said.
He seemed particularly intent on getting the message through to Beijing that it should not view any visit by Mrs Pelosi as a fresh provocation by the US since she would not be the first speaker to go there.
Mr Kirby also stressed repeatedly that the US still subscribed to its "one China" policy of not recognising independence for Taiwan.
“We’ve laid out very clearly if she goes – if she goes – it’s not without precedent,” he said. “It’s not new. It doesn’t change anything.”
Biden-Xi call
During a phone call last Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned US President Joe Biden that Washington should abide by the "one China" principle and “those who play with fire will perish by it”.
Mr Biden told Mr Xi that US policy on Taiwan had not changed and that Washington strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
On Monday, Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang did not directly respond when asked whether Mrs Pelosi will visit on Thursday, as local media have speculated.
“We always warmly welcome visits to our country by distinguished foreign guests,” he told reporters in Taipei.
Professor Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University in Beijing, said that if Mrs Pelosi visits Taiwan, it would prompt the strongest countermeasures by Beijing in years, but he did not expect that to trigger a major military conflict.
“China has reiterated in no ambiguous terms its opposition to Taiwan separatism. The US has reiterated many times its one-China policy has not changed and that it is against any change to the status quo by either side of the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
“Unless by accident, I am sure neither side would intentionally take military action that could lead to a major security risk.”
Xi-Biden call helps calm tension but differences remain
US being predictably unpredictable on Taiwan
Singapore visit
On Monday, Mrs Pelosi and her delegation met with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, discussing issues including cross-strait relations, the Ukraine war and climate change, Singapore’s Foreign Ministry said.
“PM Lee highlighted the importance of stable US-China relations for regional peace and security,” it said.
Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has never renounced using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects China’s sovereignty claims and says only its people can decide the island’s future.
Last Wednesday, Mr Biden told reporters he thought the US military believed a Pelosi visit to Taiwan was “not a good idea right now”.
.
somewherepress
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Reuters: Several Chinese warplanes fly close to median line of Taiwan Strait — " Several Chinese warplanes flew close to the median line of the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning
archive.ph
Several Chinese warplanes fly close to median line of Taiwan Strait -…
archived 2 Aug 2022 02:44:44 UTC
9:55 PM · Aug 1, 2022
View: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1554299821783228417
archive.ph
Several Chinese warplanes fly close to median line of Taiwan Strait -…
archived 2 Aug 2022 02:44:44 UTC
9:55 PM · Aug 1, 2022
View: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1554299821783228417
jward
passin' thru
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
35m
NOW - The Taiwanese air force base Taitung Zhihang has entered a state of "full combat readiness". Another 8 Mirage 2000s have also been dispatched to guard the southwestern airspace; joining the 2 already guarding it. - Setn
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1554302566523183104?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
jward
passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Watching the CCP-China Threat
@IndoPac_Info
30m
Clearly a warning to #China amid very high tension over #Taiwan "The US would consider the use of #NuclearWeapons in extreme circumstances to defend vital INTERESTS of the United States, its allies and partners." Blinken.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1554304359961243648?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
@IndoPac_Info
30m
Clearly a warning to #China amid very high tension over #Taiwan "The US would consider the use of #NuclearWeapons in extreme circumstances to defend vital INTERESTS of the United States, its allies and partners." Blinken.
View: https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1554304359961243648?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
jward
passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW
1h
Taiwan's defence ministry has 'reinforced' its combat alertness level from Tuesday morning to Thursday noon, the island's official central news agency reported, citing unidentified sources.
@Apex_WW
1h
Taiwan's defence ministry has 'reinforced' its combat alertness level from Tuesday morning to Thursday noon, the island's official central news agency reported, citing unidentified sources.
jward
passin' thru
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
Taoyuan International Airport has received a threatening letter saying that "In order to prevent the Speaker of the US House of Representatives from visiting Taiwan, 3 explosives will be placed at the airport,"; staff asked to strengthen their vigilance
@Faytuks
Taoyuan International Airport has received a threatening letter saying that "In order to prevent the Speaker of the US House of Representatives from visiting Taiwan, 3 explosives will be placed at the airport,"; staff asked to strengthen their vigilance
okie-carbine
Veteran Member
I'm sure they could just zap her from outer space if they wanted to.
jward
passin' thru
Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
Breaking: DW News confirm that speaker Pelosi will arrive in #Taiwan at 10:30 pm tonight local time at Songshan Airport
10:48 PM · Aug 1, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
@Faytuks
Breaking: DW News confirm that speaker Pelosi will arrive in #Taiwan at 10:30 pm tonight local time at Songshan Airport
10:48 PM · Aug 1, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Does it make me a TERRIBLE Person if I point out that we lost an AMBASSADOR (NORMALLY a Causus Bella) with NO response, we could lose a Speaker of the House with the same response so far as **I** am concerned.
jward
passin' thru
Just fyi, the warplanes flying near the median line of Taiwan are said to be a bit different in that they're "squeezing" it- otherwise, the flight path is unremarkable and such flights routinely occur. (referencing post upthread)
If they shoot her down we give them the blood and treasure of our armed forces/young people, of course.
I'll leave it to the reader to decide how they feel and wish to comment about that.
If they shoot her down we give them the blood and treasure of our armed forces/young people, of course.
I'll leave it to the reader to decide how they feel and wish to comment about that.
jward
passin' thru
Excellent reminder. I doubt sitting by is in the script of this production, but maybe?
Old Greek
Veteran Member
We could lose a traitor (speaker). No great loss as far as I am concerned! Hope it does not happen unless she is flying the plane alone!
Hognutz
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Isn’t that convenient?
jward
passin' thru
missile drills, last minute? More of the game of chicken? Nothing burger? :: shrug ::
The Intel Crab
@IntelCrab
Almost all flights departing from the coastal #Fujian region have suddenly been cancelled.
View: https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1554324644924104704?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
The Intel Crab
@IntelCrab
Almost all flights departing from the coastal #Fujian region have suddenly been cancelled.
View: https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1554324644924104704?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
And that doesn't even get into the issues of fallout carried by the wind.
jward
passin' thru
Nathan J Hunt
@ISNJH
15m
Interesting if these pics are indeed new and from today number of light fighting vehicles seen at port, if these are indeed from today then bit worrying if China loading ships or staging them at port.
View: https://twitter.com/ISNJH/status/1554325228435931137?s=20&t=ccnLeFg5csx1JMtV3fTJjg
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Current Local Time in Taipei, Taiwan
Current Local Time in Taipei, Taiwan (timeanddate.com)
Countrymouse
Country exile in the city
Just figure it's 12 hours ahead of local EDT (per site I checked earlier, which said her arrival time of 10 pm Tuesday Taipei time is 10 am EDT)
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
TAIPEI time is 15 hours ahead of Pacific Standard time.
Therefore, 1030 PM Taipei is 0730
PST.
It is also 0430 Eastern time and Central is 0530.
Bottomline MOST OF AMERICA WON'T EVEN REALIZE WE ARE AT WAR IF ANYTHING HAPPENS.
Therefore, 1030 PM Taipei is 0730
PST.
It is also 0430 Eastern time and Central is 0530.
Bottomline MOST OF AMERICA WON'T EVEN REALIZE WE ARE AT WAR IF ANYTHING HAPPENS.
Lilbitsnana
On TB every waking moment
You did the Eastern and Central calcs backwards.
10:30 PM Taipei time is 10:30 AM Eastern; 9:30 AM Central; 8:30 AM Mtn; 7:30 AM Pacific
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
Oops 
It is 0530 pst now so 2 hours to go!
I remember when Aquino landed in Manilla and Marcos had him shot when the plane landed and he stepped out the door.
I can't understand why piglosi is going, unless it is to pick up some money from her husband's stock trade on the chip plant. I also find it hard to believe China would whack her, unless it is the Falkland's syndrome again. Thd ccp had tanks in the street to prevent bank runs/riots last week. So starting a war with the USA like the Argentine junta did with Britain may be the goal.
It is 0530 pst now so 2 hours to go!I remember when Aquino landed in Manilla and Marcos had him shot when the plane landed and he stepped out the door.
I can't understand why piglosi is going, unless it is to pick up some money from her husband's stock trade on the chip plant. I also find it hard to believe China would whack her, unless it is the Falkland's syndrome again. Thd ccp had tanks in the street to prevent bank runs/riots last week. So starting a war with the USA like the Argentine junta did with Britain may be the goal.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Futures are downOops
I remember when Aquino landed in Manilla and Marcos had him shot when the plane landed and he stepped out the door.
I can't understand why piglosi is going, unless it is to pick up some money from her husband's stock trade on the chip plant. I also find it hard to believe China would whack her, unless it is the Falkland's syndrome again. Thd ccp had tanks in the street to prevent bank runs/riots last week. So starting a war with the USA like the Argentine junta did with Britain may be the goal.
northern watch
TB Fanatic
Global Markets Fall Ahead of Pelosi's Taiwan Visit; The S&P 500 is on course to edge down after the opening bell while Treasury yields tick lower
Tuesday, August 2, 2022, 7:44 AM ET
By Rebecca Feng and Will Horner
Wall Street Journal
U.S. stock futures and global markets slipped Tuesday on fears that U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan could heighten tensions between Beijing and Washington and add geopolitical risk to investors’ already muted outlook.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, a day after the broad index ended its first trading day of the new month slightly lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 0.5% Tuesday while technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures lost 0.7%.
Mrs. Pelosi is scheduled to arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday evening local time and meet with Taiwanese government officials, in what would be the first visit by a House speaker to the democratically governed island since 1997. Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has warned Mrs. Pelosi not to do so. Chinese officials have threatened unspecified countermeasures should her visit proceed.
In China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite dropped 2.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 2.4%.
Shares of some Chinese national defense companies surged more than 15%, making them some of the best-performing stocks in the region. Shenzhen-listed Xi’an Tian He Defense Technology, a manufacturer of military equipment and smart security systems, jumped 20%.
Mrs. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan comes against an already fragile backdrop for markets. The U.S. economy is struggling with the twin threats of soaring inflation and rapidly rising interest rates—part of the Federal Reserve’s stated goal to fight rising prices even if it knocks economic growth. Stocks have rebounded in recent weeks on hopes that the worst of inflation and rate rises could be over but investors aren’t ready to call a bottom in the market yet.
“Even if you think the inflation dragon has been slain there is still a lot to worry about,” said Altaf Kassam, head of investment strategy for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at State Street Global Advisors.
“There are still too many unknowns out there. Markets are going to be more volatile because of the more data-driven approach adopted by central banks, and valuations aren’t so incredibly low that you’d say it is time to buy,” he said.
Pinterest shares jumped 18% ahead of the opening bell after the social-media company reported earnings in line with forecasts and its new chief executive said he was going to focus on profitability. Avis Budget rose 4.5% after the car-rental company reported earnings that beat expectations.
Uber climbed 12% premarket after its revenue more than doubled, signaling the ride-hailing company’s efforts to trim its losses were working.
Caterpillar fell 2% after reporting sales figures that missed analysts’ forecasts, while DuPont fell 2.7% after saying that headwinds could weigh on its third-quarter results. KKR fell 1.9% after reporting a sharp drop in revenue.
Cowen rose 7.5% after Toronto-Dominion Bank said it would buy the investment bank for more than $1 billion.
Mrs. Pelosi’s trip adds to investors’ worries that the already strained U.S.-China relationship could worsen and many are taking a cautious stance, said Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at asset-management company Rayliant Global Advisors. The market, however, “is not pricing in a China invasion of Taiwan,” he said.
An escalation of tensions could cause global investors to dump Chinese assets again just after many had been gradually warming to them following previous bouts of market turmoil, said Daryl Liew, head of portfolio management at REYL Singapore. “This geopolitical event is putting a huge dent on that,” he said.
Government bond yields fell as investors sought assets considered safe havens ahead of Mrs. Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, pushing the benchmark U.S. government bond yield to its lowest level since April. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 2.560% from 2.605% on Monday. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The yield curve between the three-month and 10-year Treasury notes briefly inverted for the first time since the start of the pandemic Tuesday—an indicator that the Fed says has the best record of predicting a recession.
The difference in the yield on a three-month Treasury bill and the benchmark 10-year bond yield declined to minus 0.001 percentage points on Tuesday before edging back up, according to Tradeweb.
Investors were also awaiting a packed day of the corporate earnings season, which so far has largely performed better than investors had feared. Starbucks, Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices and Prudential Financial will report after the close.
Comments from Fed officials could offer clues on whether the central bank will temper the size of its rate rises at future meetings. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are set to speak at separate events later Tuesday.
In commodity markets, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell 0.6% to $99.46 a barrel. Commodity prices, from energy to metals, have eased from their highs in recent weeks on fears of slowing global growth. That has added to hopes that inflation could soon show signs of peaking.
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.9% led by losses among the region’s banks. Energy firms rose, led by BP, which jumped 3.1% after reporting soaring profits thanks to higher oil prices.
Write to Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com and Will Horner at william.horner@wsj.com
Stock Futures Decline Ahead of Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit - WSJ
Tuesday, August 2, 2022, 7:44 AM ET
By Rebecca Feng and Will Horner
Wall Street Journal
U.S. stock futures and global markets slipped Tuesday on fears that U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan could heighten tensions between Beijing and Washington and add geopolitical risk to investors’ already muted outlook.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.6%, a day after the broad index ended its first trading day of the new month slightly lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 0.5% Tuesday while technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures lost 0.7%.
Mrs. Pelosi is scheduled to arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday evening local time and meet with Taiwanese government officials, in what would be the first visit by a House speaker to the democratically governed island since 1997. Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has warned Mrs. Pelosi not to do so. Chinese officials have threatened unspecified countermeasures should her visit proceed.
In China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite dropped 2.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 2.4%.
Shares of some Chinese national defense companies surged more than 15%, making them some of the best-performing stocks in the region. Shenzhen-listed Xi’an Tian He Defense Technology, a manufacturer of military equipment and smart security systems, jumped 20%.
Mrs. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan comes against an already fragile backdrop for markets. The U.S. economy is struggling with the twin threats of soaring inflation and rapidly rising interest rates—part of the Federal Reserve’s stated goal to fight rising prices even if it knocks economic growth. Stocks have rebounded in recent weeks on hopes that the worst of inflation and rate rises could be over but investors aren’t ready to call a bottom in the market yet.
“Even if you think the inflation dragon has been slain there is still a lot to worry about,” said Altaf Kassam, head of investment strategy for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at State Street Global Advisors.
“There are still too many unknowns out there. Markets are going to be more volatile because of the more data-driven approach adopted by central banks, and valuations aren’t so incredibly low that you’d say it is time to buy,” he said.
Pinterest shares jumped 18% ahead of the opening bell after the social-media company reported earnings in line with forecasts and its new chief executive said he was going to focus on profitability. Avis Budget rose 4.5% after the car-rental company reported earnings that beat expectations.
Uber climbed 12% premarket after its revenue more than doubled, signaling the ride-hailing company’s efforts to trim its losses were working.
Caterpillar fell 2% after reporting sales figures that missed analysts’ forecasts, while DuPont fell 2.7% after saying that headwinds could weigh on its third-quarter results. KKR fell 1.9% after reporting a sharp drop in revenue.
Cowen rose 7.5% after Toronto-Dominion Bank said it would buy the investment bank for more than $1 billion.
Mrs. Pelosi’s trip adds to investors’ worries that the already strained U.S.-China relationship could worsen and many are taking a cautious stance, said Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at asset-management company Rayliant Global Advisors. The market, however, “is not pricing in a China invasion of Taiwan,” he said.
An escalation of tensions could cause global investors to dump Chinese assets again just after many had been gradually warming to them following previous bouts of market turmoil, said Daryl Liew, head of portfolio management at REYL Singapore. “This geopolitical event is putting a huge dent on that,” he said.
Government bond yields fell as investors sought assets considered safe havens ahead of Mrs. Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, pushing the benchmark U.S. government bond yield to its lowest level since April. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 2.560% from 2.605% on Monday. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The yield curve between the three-month and 10-year Treasury notes briefly inverted for the first time since the start of the pandemic Tuesday—an indicator that the Fed says has the best record of predicting a recession.
The difference in the yield on a three-month Treasury bill and the benchmark 10-year bond yield declined to minus 0.001 percentage points on Tuesday before edging back up, according to Tradeweb.
Investors were also awaiting a packed day of the corporate earnings season, which so far has largely performed better than investors had feared. Starbucks, Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices and Prudential Financial will report after the close.
Comments from Fed officials could offer clues on whether the central bank will temper the size of its rate rises at future meetings. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are set to speak at separate events later Tuesday.
In commodity markets, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell 0.6% to $99.46 a barrel. Commodity prices, from energy to metals, have eased from their highs in recent weeks on fears of slowing global growth. That has added to hopes that inflation could soon show signs of peaking.
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.9% led by losses among the region’s banks. Energy firms rose, led by BP, which jumped 3.1% after reporting soaring profits thanks to higher oil prices.
Write to Rebecca Feng at rebecca.feng@wsj.com and Will Horner at william.horner@wsj.com
Stock Futures Decline Ahead of Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit - WSJ
it is a distraction from losing the war in Ukraine