ECON BofA: "Transitory Hyperinflation Ahead"

marsh

On TB every waking moment

BofA: "Transitory Hyperinflation Ahead"
Last week, when discussing the latest earnings call commentary, Bank of America said "Buckle up! Inflation is here", and showed a chart of the number of mentions of “inflation” during earnings calls which exploded, more than tripling YoY per company so far, the and the biggest jump in history since BofA started keeping records in 2004.



Who knew that just one week later BofA would need a bigger chart... a much bigger chart.

As BofA's Savita Subramanian writes, after the third week of earnings. mentions of “inflation” have now quadrupled YoY; and after last week, mentions have jumped nearly 800% YoY!



While the implications are obvious, we leave it to Bank of America to explain what this means:
On an absolute basis, [inflation] mentions skyrocketed to near record highs from 2011, pointing to at the very least, “transitory” hyper-inflation ahead.
Yes... really:



Because if there is one thing hyperinflation is, it's "transitory."
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
‘The Costs Are Just Up, Up, Up’: Warren Buffett Issues Grave Warning About Inflation

Inflation often feels like an abstract concept, but it hits everyday people the hardest.

Monday, May 3, 2021
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Brad Polumbo

Brad Polumbo

This article is excerpted from the FEE Daily, a daily email newsletter where FEE Policy Correspondent Brad Polumbo brings you news and analysis on the top free-market economics and policy stories. Click here to sign up.

Given the federal government’s unprecedented spending spree and money-printing splurge over the last year, many critics have warned that such fiscal irresponsibility could result in a destructive wave of inflation. Berkshire Hathaway CEO and billionaire investor Warren Buffett owns a number of large homebuilding companies—and he just warned that they’re seeing inflation on the rise.

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” Buffet said at a Sunday shareholder meeting. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

“We’ve got nine home builders in addition to our manufactured housing and operation, which is the largest in the country,” the investor continued. “So we really do a lot of housing. The costs are just up, up, up. Steel costs, you know, just every day they’re going up.”
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Indeed, surging prices are becoming a grave problem in the housing sector. This has ramifications for all of us. Inflation often feels like an abstract concept, but it hits everyday people the hardest. In one example, the ongoing surge in lumber prices over the last year, one of many current manifestations of inflation, has increased the price of a typical new single-family home by nearly $36,000.

And, in an example that hits even closer to home, FEE’s Hannah Cox recently reported on an ongoing surge in food and grocery prices that threatens Americans’ ability to keep food on the table.

“Food prices jumped 3.9 percent in 2020,” Hannah explained. “Unfortunately, this trend seems poised to continue. The US Department of Agriculture estimates grocery bills could increase by another 3 percent in 2021, while some experts are betting on even longer-term problems.”

She notes that meat prices increased 5.5 percent last year, while there was a whopping 11.3 percent increase in the price of fruits like apples and strawberries.
Food and housing inflation are just the beginning.

A recent Bank of America survey found that investors rank inflation overall as their top concern. Even some liberal-leaning economists like former Obama cabinet official Larry Summers—favorably predisposed to big-spending plans—are sounding the alarm.

“I think there’s a real possibility that within the year we’re going to be dealing with the most serious, incipient inflation problem we’ve faced in the last 40 years,” Summers said.

Even from just housing and food, you can see how rising prices hurt everyday people. Essentially, because it decreases your real purchasing power, inflation is a stealth tax—in order to spend more, the government takes wealth away from citizens without most people realizing it.

Official inflation statistics are messy, and they often underestimate true price increases. But Warren Buffett’s warning is just the latest in a growing body of evidence that inflation, at least in several key sectors, is becoming a serious threat.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Get Ready For The Most Painful Inflation Since The Jimmy Carter Years Of The 1970s
May 2, 2021
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If you are too young to have been alive during the 1970s, you might want to read up on that decade, because current economic conditions are starting to become eerily similar to what we experienced back then. In the 1970s, an energy crisis caused tremendously long lines at gas stations all over the country. In 2021, we don’t have a shortage of gasoline, but shortages of other key products are starting to cause very serious problems. In fact, as you will see below, even the Biden administration is publicly admitting that there will be “supply chain disruptions” in the months ahead. The 1970s also featured extremely painful inflation, and I certainly don’t need to tell you that prices have been rising very aggressively lately. In fact, Bloomberg is using the term “skyrocketing” to describe the “upward trajectory” of commodity prices…
The prices of raw materials used to make almost everything are skyrocketing, and the upward trajectory looks set to continue as the world economy roars back to life.

From steel and copper to corn and lumber, commodities started 2021 with a bang, surging to levels not seen for years. The rally threatens to raise the cost of goods from the lunchtime sandwich to gleaming skyscrapers. It’s also lit the fuse on the massive reflation trade that’s gripped markets this year and pushed up inflation expectations. With the U.S. economy pumped up on fiscal stimulus, and Europe’s economy starting to reopen as its vaccination rollout gets into gear, there’s little reason to expect a change in direction.
Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has pumped more money into the financial system than ever before, and the U.S. government has been on a wild spending spree that makes Zimbabwe look fiscally conservative.

It was inevitable that this was going to cause rampant inflation, but the numbers that we are starting to see are so crazy they are difficult to believe. A couple weeks ago, Charlie Bilello posted a summary of how commodity prices have changed over the past year…

Lumber: +265%
WTI Crude: +210%
Gasoline: +182%
Brent Crude +163%
Heating Oil: +107%
Corn: +84%
Copper: +83%
Soybeans: +72%
Silver: +65%
Sugar: +59%
Cotton: +54%
Platinum: +52%
Natural Gas: +43%
Palladium: +32%
Wheat: +19%
Coffee: +13%

At this point, nobody can deny what is happening, and even the Biden administration is admitting that there will be “supply chain disruptions” and “transitory increases in prices”…
Council of Economic Advisers chair Cecilia Rouse said on this week’s broadcast of “Fox News Sunday” that they expect to see some “transitory inflation” as America is coming out of the coronavirus pandemic.

Anchor Chris Wallace said, “Can you guarantee with all this spending that we are not going to have a new round of overheating the economy and serious inflation?

Rouse said, “These are very serious concerns, and we know that coming out of an extremely deep recession that there are going to be bumps along the way. We expect that there is going to be supply chain disruptions. That will cause some transitory increases in prices.”
Biden administration officials would like for us to believe that this inflationary period will just be “temporary”, but exactly how do they plan to achieve that?

Do they have a plan to somehow pull trillions of dollars out of the system?

No, they are planning to borrow and spend trillions more.

In the 1970s, double-digit inflation made headlines for years on end. Many people believe that we are well on the way to a return to such levels, but according to John Williams of shadowstats.com, we are already there. In fact, if inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, we would already be in double-digit territory.

And for certain items, we are already seeing inflation that is off the charts.

For example, the price of corn is up more than 30 percent so far in 2021…
From tortillas to cornbread, some of your favorite corn-based dishes may go up in price late this summer.
Corn has been leading the rally among grain commodities, rising more than 30% in 2021, according to MarketWatch.
Corn is used in hundreds of different products at the grocery store, and so this is going to dramatically affect the food budgets of millions upon millions of American families.

Meanwhile, we continue to see more shortages start to emerge. Last week, the mainstream media was freaking out over our new nationwide chicken shortage
A chicken shortage is taking place across the country, much of it fueled by the chicken sandwich craze at fast food chains such as KFC and Bojangles, which are having a hard time keeping up with soaring demand. Experts say February’s massive winter storm in Texas also contributed to gaps in the supply chain.
That shortage is supposed to be “temporary”, but analysts are warning that the current computer chip shortage could last until 2022.

But despite all of the problems that I just detailed, Americans are increasingly optimistic about the future.

In fact, one recent poll found that a whopping 64 percent of all Americans “are optimistic about the direction of the country”
President Joe Biden completes his first hundred days in office with a country that is more optimistic about the coming year, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans (64%) are optimistic about the direction of the country in the poll, which was conducted by Ipsos in partnership with ABC News using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.
And Americans are also extremely optimistic about the stock market. If you can believe it, Americans now have more of their assets invested in the stock market than ever before
Individual investors are holding more stocks than ever before as major indexes climb to fresh highs. They are also upping the ante by borrowing to magnify their bets or increasingly buying on small dips in the market.

Stockholdings among U.S. households increased to 41% of their total financial assets in April, the highest level on record. That is according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Federal Reserve data going back to 1952 that includes 401(k) retirement accounts.
Most Americans seem to believe that happy days are here again, and the stage is set for an immense nationwide emotional meltdown once this “bubble of hope” inevitably bursts.

Anyone that believes that things are going to get better has a fundamental misunderstanding of the times in which we live.

We have just been through the most painful year for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and I know that most people would like to see things turn around, but that simply is not going to happen.

Very dark days are ahead, and those that are trusting Joe Biden to save America are going to be bitterly, bitterly disappointed.
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
Can’t say that we haven’t been warned!

In a hyperinflation scenario food becomes the end all. We are literally three days from anarchy if food isn’t in the stores or you can’t afford it. Even before having the necessary precious metals to see you through this time you need a substantial food prep program, hopefully a garden along with chickens or other food animals and it’s hard to do that in town.

Generic bulk food grains and rice, etc are still pretty cheap and you can put away a lot of them and do a lot with them. Load up on the staples while you can. Nothing will drive people over the edge than being hungry and empty cupboards. If nothing else you won’t have to stand in food lines for hours on end to get your pitiful allotment hoping there is still something on the shelf when you get to the head of the line.
 

glennb6

Inactive
For anyone who occasionally read Lame Cherry, her latest is that there are huge trainloads and truck loads of lumber taken off line and waiting for the price spike.

Why do I have a feeling that the supposed food shortage is contrived much like it was in the 2008 run up.

Great Reset.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
"Transitory Hyperinflation"?

Until the "transition" to a different currency, digital "New Dollars" or something?

Bring the pain - get the peeps to demand a "Fix" - roll out the solution...
No! It is until they figure a plan out to take what you have and kill you. That is the "transition" they are planning.
 

coalcracker

Veteran Member
There is no question that the minions of satan are following a script given to them from a cutting-edge Artificial Intelligence program. We are seeing way too much coordination between events from many sectors.

It is disturbing to realize that AI could outperform the best human chess grandmaster (Kasparov) back in the 90s. We cannot compete with the speed or the scope of its processing, but we still have one advantage. It lacks intuition. Though mechanically precise, it can be “black swanned” by beings with intuition.

Or, to give a religious metaphor, it can plot and kill Christ, but it cannot see the resurrection three days later.

Once again, evil will try BUT FAIL. :bhd:

Be strong positionally.
- on knees before the Lord.
- in geographical location
- with food and water

There is a great reset coming, but it is not the one they’re planning.
 

Bps1691

Veteran Member
Having been through the 1970's Carter years, I don't relish going through it again (or even worse), but it is coming. Worked for a small manufacturing company and saw the prices go nuts. We were actually comfortable before it hit and it took years to catch up salary wise to the damage it did to my purchasing power.

This one when it hits will be much worse.
 

33dInd

Veteran Member
This crap is really cramping my retirement
Couldn’t travel because of hysteria lickdowns
My new garage cost over double what I projected
Crap. Just Sheetrock is crazy priced
Now gasoline prices are going winkers
Wife is going crazy over cost of bedding plants
can’t find seed potatoes
This is gonna be another sucky year

and let’s not even discuss ammo. Reloading supplies or guns
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
This crap is really cramping my retirement
Couldn’t travel because of hysteria lickdowns
My new garage cost over double what I projected
Crap. Just Sheetrock is crazy priced
Now gasoline prices are going winkers
Wife is going crazy over cost of bedding plants
can’t find seed potatoes
This is gonna be another sucky year

and let’s not even discuss ammo. Reloading supplies or guns
This is why we bought ahead. Even then we had trouble getting seeds.
 

33dInd

Veteran Member
This is why we bought ahead. Even then we had trouble getting seeds.
Yeah. Bought ahead on a lot of other stuff
But wife wanted a flower garden at the country place and transitioning from city to country this last fall. That fell thru the cracks
I got her a green house for starting seeds but. Good intentions and the road to hell
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
Yeah. Bought ahead on a lot of other stuff
But wife wanted a flower garden at the country place and transitioning from city to country this last fall. That fell thru the cracks
I got her a green house for starting seeds but. Good intentions and the road to hell
Something always falls through the cracks.

We learned that when we did preps. Heck I am still having that issue. The more we use them, the more we find.
 

33dInd

Veteran Member
Good thing. We still own the city house so wife is just digging up her favorites. Fine by me.
mostly annuals. I told her nope on the old crepe myrtle
But hostess and iris are fair game
She did have luck with petunia and marigolds seeds from a year ago
 

Hfcomms

EN66iq
For anyone who occasionally read Lame Cherry, her latest is that there are huge trainloads and truck loads of lumber taken off line and waiting for the price spike.

Why do I have a feeling that the supposed food shortage is contrived much like it was in the 2008 run up.

Great Reset.


Waiting for the price spike in lumber? What does she think we have been seeing? $50 a sheet for OSB is a pretty significant price spike in my book.
 

Grumphau

Veteran Member
Next up - "hyperinflation is good for equity".

It would annihilate all that wealth that was built up using "privilege".
 

mikeabn

Finally not a lurker!
For anyone who occasionally read Lame Cherry, her latest is that there are huge trainloads and truck loads of lumber taken off line and waiting for the price spike.

Why do I have a feeling that the supposed food shortage is contrived much like it was in the 2008 run up.

Great Reset.
Personally I put nothing past the bastards.
 

Double_A

TB Fanatic

This picture is questionable. Look at Biden & Wife they are kneeling yet their body's tower over the chairs (OMG Just realized those are the same chairs my mom has, look great but uncomfortable) Is this from some Wax Museum? Look at the Carter's proportionally they appear to be the size of Children.
 

raven

TB Fanatic
This picture is questionable. Look at Biden & Wife they are kneeling yet their body's tower over the chairs (OMG Just realized those are the same chairs my mom has, look great but uncomfortable) Is this from some Wax Museum? Look at the Carter's proportionally they appear to be the size of Children.
I am 5"10". I knelt next to one of the kitchen chairs. My shoulder was about the same distance above the chair back as Biden's. Try it
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment

Investors Do Not See "Transitory" Inflation

TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 - 09:26 AM
Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank repeat that the recent inflationary spike is “transitory”. The problem is that investors do not buy it.


Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and this time is not different. What central banks call transitory effects, and the impact of supply chains are not the real drivers of inflationary pressures. No one can deny certain supply shock impacts, but the correlation and extent of the increase in prices of agricultural and industrial commodities to five-year highs as well as the abrupt rise of non-replicable goods and services to decade-highs have monetary policy to blame.

Injecting trillions of liquidity makes more funds chase fewer goods and the rise in the real inflation perceived by citizens is much larger than the official CPI.

Take food prices. The United Nations Food Price Index is up 30% in the past five years and up 10% year-to-date (April 2021). The rise in food prices already caused protests all over the world in 2018 and it continues to reach new highs. The correlation in the price increase of most agricultural goods also shows that it is a monetary effect.

The same can be said about the Bloomberg Commodity Index which is also at five-year highs and up 15% year-to-date.

Yes, there have been some supply disruptions in a few commodities, but it is not widespread let alone the norm. If anything can be said is that the rise in agricultural and industrial commodities is happening despite the persistent overcapacity that many of these had already before the pandemic. We should also remember that one of the unintended consequences of massive monetary expansion is perpetuation of overcapacity. Excess capacity is refinanced and maintained even in crisis times. Therefore, we can argue that the rising cost of goods is not coming predominantly from supply shortages but in an environment of extended overcapacity, making it even more evident a monetary phenomenon.

We can discuss about the numerous ways in which governments disguise rising cost of goods and services in the official CPI (consumer price index), using debatable averages, excluding taxes, and underestimating the weight of some goods in a basket. In fact, the idea of CPI itself as created by the great economist Irving fisher was to disguise the abrupt rise in some goods by averaging the price change with others. Consumers were angry to see bread rise, say, 20%?

What better idea than to include it in a basket of goods? However, that is not necessary. The reality is that the correlation in price moves and the aggressiveness of such changes show that most developed nation central banks simply will not change the course of monetary policy.

We know that central banks do not change course even if inflation is high and persistent because we have seen it in numerous countries, and almost every Southern European nation before the euro.

Governments always justify printing more money with the excuse that there is no inflation. When inflation rises, they say it is transitory. And when inflation soars, governments blame businesses and shop owners, presenting themselves as the solution with “price controls”.

Central banks are unable to normalize policy even with the evidence of a strong recovery because they are hostage to governments that simply refuse to reduce deficit spending while they cannot tolerate even a small rise in bond yields.

Investors know this and are looking for ways to protect their clients’ savings from inflation and an even more likely concern: stagflation. A rising number of funds are looking at a highly likely risk of stagnation after the chain of stimuli but with rising prices. Official CPI may not reflect the rise in healthcare, education, fresh food prices and rent, but citizens feel it.

There is a reason why in 2018 and 2019 we saw protests against the intolerable rise in cost of living all over Europe and emerging markets at the same time as central banks warned of the risk of deflation. The real cost of living is rising faster than what the official calculations suggest. It was a problem in 2018 and it is an even larger problem after 2020.
 
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