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[AI] Avian Flu Daily Thread 03.11.05
- Thread starter LMonty911
- Start date
United States, Thailand Keeping Watch for Bird Flu in Humans
Disease surveillance programs look for virus to appear in people
10 March 2005
http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/m-news+article+storyid-7652.html
By Charlene Porter
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington – International health officials are worried about the chance that a virulent strain of bird flu circulating among the Asian poultry population might mutate into a form that could widely infect humans, leading to a global epidemic. The first clues that such an epidemic is about to begin will be discovered through active surveillance programs to analyze viral strains that are infecting people who come down with flu or pneumonia symptoms.
Scientists from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are working with Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) to conduct some of the most thorough disease surveillance programs in the entire region.
CDC’s International Emerging Infections Program (IEIP) in Bangkok has been conducting disease surveillance to better understand pneumonia in Thailand. IEIP Director Dr. Scott Dowell told the Washington File in a March 7 phone interview that bird flu in humans shows symptoms similar to pneumonia. "So the ability to pick up pneumonia, and describe pneumonia, gives us a leg up on picking up cases of bird flu and understanding how we detect them when they come into humans,” he said.
Bird flu has stricken flocks widely across the region, with eight nations detecting the highly infectious avian influenza virus known as H5N1. The World Health Organization reports 55 laboratory-confirmed cases occurring in humans in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, with 42 deaths -- an unusually high death rate for influenza.
In almost all these cases, health officials have determined that the individuals became sick because of exposure to infected birds. The virus has not become easily transmissible from human to human, according to current findings, but with the virus circulating so widely, experts say it could mutate into another form at any time.
“When that first starts to happen, person-to-person spread, we want to be darn sure that we know about it as early as possible,” said Dowell.
The Thai MOPH has a nationwide surveillance system in place, Dowell said, supported by a health care infrastructure that is well qualified to conduct the testing and diagnosis necessary to ascertain what viral strain has infected a sick person. A nationwide alert is circulating among medical personnel all over the country to keep watch for the symptoms of the disease as they have appeared in humans so far.
In addition, MOPH is sending teams into the community on a regular basis to look for cases of respiratory illness that were not serious enough to send the patient to a hospital.
CDC began its emerging infection program in Thailand in 2001 to contend with precisely this type of situation, Dowell said. The program has helped improve diagnostic capabilities in the Thai health care system to some degree, Dowell said, even as he praised the competence and availability of medical services throughout the country.
“But that’s going to be different in neighboring countries, in the much poorer countries,” the IEIP director said. “It’s going to be more difficult to pick up early cases of bird flu if they occur there.”
IEIP has conducted regional conferences, training laboratory staff from other nations of Southeast Asia in diagnostic testing so there is capability in larger, national laboratories throughout the region. If the H5N1 mutates into a human transmissible form in a rural corner of Southeast Asia, that could be the beginning of a serious public health problem.
“There is definitely always the concern that the first big human-to-human spread will occur in a place where we’re not as ready as in Thailand,” Dowell said.
In the not-so-distant past, this type of outbreak was thought to be impossible. Avian influenza did not occur in humans, according to the old dogma.
A 1997 outbreak in Hong Kong became the first case in which transmission occurred directly from birds to humans. The old wisdom was proven false and since then outbreaks of bird flu in humans have occurred elsewhere in Asia, Europe and North America.
Disease surveillance programs look for virus to appear in people
10 March 2005
http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/m-news+article+storyid-7652.html
By Charlene Porter
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington – International health officials are worried about the chance that a virulent strain of bird flu circulating among the Asian poultry population might mutate into a form that could widely infect humans, leading to a global epidemic. The first clues that such an epidemic is about to begin will be discovered through active surveillance programs to analyze viral strains that are infecting people who come down with flu or pneumonia symptoms.
Scientists from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are working with Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) to conduct some of the most thorough disease surveillance programs in the entire region.
CDC’s International Emerging Infections Program (IEIP) in Bangkok has been conducting disease surveillance to better understand pneumonia in Thailand. IEIP Director Dr. Scott Dowell told the Washington File in a March 7 phone interview that bird flu in humans shows symptoms similar to pneumonia. "So the ability to pick up pneumonia, and describe pneumonia, gives us a leg up on picking up cases of bird flu and understanding how we detect them when they come into humans,” he said.
Bird flu has stricken flocks widely across the region, with eight nations detecting the highly infectious avian influenza virus known as H5N1. The World Health Organization reports 55 laboratory-confirmed cases occurring in humans in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, with 42 deaths -- an unusually high death rate for influenza.
In almost all these cases, health officials have determined that the individuals became sick because of exposure to infected birds. The virus has not become easily transmissible from human to human, according to current findings, but with the virus circulating so widely, experts say it could mutate into another form at any time.
“When that first starts to happen, person-to-person spread, we want to be darn sure that we know about it as early as possible,” said Dowell.
The Thai MOPH has a nationwide surveillance system in place, Dowell said, supported by a health care infrastructure that is well qualified to conduct the testing and diagnosis necessary to ascertain what viral strain has infected a sick person. A nationwide alert is circulating among medical personnel all over the country to keep watch for the symptoms of the disease as they have appeared in humans so far.
In addition, MOPH is sending teams into the community on a regular basis to look for cases of respiratory illness that were not serious enough to send the patient to a hospital.
CDC began its emerging infection program in Thailand in 2001 to contend with precisely this type of situation, Dowell said. The program has helped improve diagnostic capabilities in the Thai health care system to some degree, Dowell said, even as he praised the competence and availability of medical services throughout the country.
“But that’s going to be different in neighboring countries, in the much poorer countries,” the IEIP director said. “It’s going to be more difficult to pick up early cases of bird flu if they occur there.”
IEIP has conducted regional conferences, training laboratory staff from other nations of Southeast Asia in diagnostic testing so there is capability in larger, national laboratories throughout the region. If the H5N1 mutates into a human transmissible form in a rural corner of Southeast Asia, that could be the beginning of a serious public health problem.
“There is definitely always the concern that the first big human-to-human spread will occur in a place where we’re not as ready as in Thailand,” Dowell said.
In the not-so-distant past, this type of outbreak was thought to be impossible. Avian influenza did not occur in humans, according to the old dogma.
A 1997 outbreak in Hong Kong became the first case in which transmission occurred directly from birds to humans. The old wisdom was proven false and since then outbreaks of bird flu in humans have occurred elsewhere in Asia, Europe and North America.
HUH???? Just what are these guys smoking???
http://www.vnagency.com.vn/newsA.asp?LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=29&NEWS_ID=142283
WHO affirms no human-to-human bird flu transmission
03/11/2005 -- 17:20(GMT+7)
Ha Noi, Mar. 11 (VNA) - The World Health Organisation has confirmed that no case of human-to-human transmission of the avian influenza type A (H5N1) virus has so far been identified.
On Mar. 11, Trinh Quan Huan, Director of the Health Ministry's Health Preventive and HIV/AIDS Combat Department, affirmed that there has been no evidence so far that the virus has mutated.
He stressed that all people infected with H5N1 in Viet Nam have had contact with infected birds.
In regard to H5N1 carriers who remain healthy without showing any symptoms of illness, Huan said the quantity of H5N1 virus in those people might not be strong enough to trigger any symptoms of illness, but they have still been placed in the high risk group.
So far, Viet Nam has diagnosed 56 people with the H5N1 virus. Thirty-three have died and one is in critical condition.
In a move to prevent the pathogenic H5N1 virus from combining with influenza B to create a new strain, the Health Ministry has worked out a plan to combat dangerous infectious diseases, including the mobilisation of medical equipment and medicine capable of treating thousands of patients at one time.
Also on Mar. 11, the Health Ministry sent a working group to the Red river delta province of Thai Binh, which is the hot spot of H5N1 human infection in Viet Nam.-Enditem
http://www.vnagency.com.vn/newsA.asp?LANGUAGE_ID=2&CATEGORY_ID=29&NEWS_ID=142283
WHO affirms no human-to-human bird flu transmission
03/11/2005 -- 17:20(GMT+7)
Ha Noi, Mar. 11 (VNA) - The World Health Organisation has confirmed that no case of human-to-human transmission of the avian influenza type A (H5N1) virus has so far been identified.
On Mar. 11, Trinh Quan Huan, Director of the Health Ministry's Health Preventive and HIV/AIDS Combat Department, affirmed that there has been no evidence so far that the virus has mutated.
He stressed that all people infected with H5N1 in Viet Nam have had contact with infected birds.
In regard to H5N1 carriers who remain healthy without showing any symptoms of illness, Huan said the quantity of H5N1 virus in those people might not be strong enough to trigger any symptoms of illness, but they have still been placed in the high risk group.
So far, Viet Nam has diagnosed 56 people with the H5N1 virus. Thirty-three have died and one is in critical condition.
In a move to prevent the pathogenic H5N1 virus from combining with influenza B to create a new strain, the Health Ministry has worked out a plan to combat dangerous infectious diseases, including the mobilisation of medical equipment and medicine capable of treating thousands of patients at one time.
Also on Mar. 11, the Health Ministry sent a working group to the Red river delta province of Thai Binh, which is the hot spot of H5N1 human infection in Viet Nam.-Enditem
The virus can survive outside of chickens for three months, so slaughtering them is not always the best option. (Courtesy of http://www.spokenfor.org) Fears of bird flu pandemic spread
By Patrick Kerns
March 11, 2005
Concerns about the potential of a worldwide epidemic of avian influenza, or bird flu, are increasing amid a higher than usual number of deaths from the disease in South-East Asian. The World Health Organization (WHO) fears that the dangerous disease may become transmissible from person to person.
Last year 45 people died worldwide from the disease, which is normally contracted from close contact with domesticated birds. In comparison, 42 people have died since the end of January this year.
Over 140 million birds were slaughtered last year alone in attempt to prevent the spread of the bird flu. Presently, the virus has been found in other animals besides humans and birds who were not thought to be vulnerable to the disease, such as cats and tigers.
The first cases of bird flu in humans was diagnosed in Vietnam in January, followed closely by cases in Thailand and one case in Cambodia. This strain of bird flu has also been reported in Korea, China, India and Japan. Currently the disease is being monitored by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response group, who has confirmed 52 cases of bird flu.
In a press release the WHO emphasizes that "there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission." Experts have speculated that if the disease did mutate in a way that allowed such transmission then it would have the potential to claim more lives than SARS did two years ago , in which approximately 800 people died.
According to the WHO, antiviral drugs have shown some ability to combat the disease. Several prototype vaccines for the virus have also been produced from the virus found in Vietnam and a different virus isolated in Hong Kong. Large scale production of vaccines is not imminent as the drug has yet to undergo clinical testing.
While most people consider the flu a relatively nonthreatening disease, it has caused deadly epidemics in the past. In 1918 a human influenza pandemic swept the world, killing 21 million worldwide, with 500,000 dead in the United States alone. Government officials feared a resurgence of the "Spanish Flu" in 1976 after a flu outbreak at Fort Dix Army Base in New Jersey, but their fears proved unfounded. Since then many outbreaks have been prevented as a result of the flu vaccine.
The WHO has recommended that people "should avoid unnecessary contact with infected poultry, especially de-feathering or preparing sick birds for consumption in an area with recent chicken deaths." The Cambodian government is cooperating fully in the WHO's efforts. In the disease monitoring efforts the WHO is collaborating with the Pasteur Institute, the Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture, and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Bird flu is not only a health hazard, but a significant economic hardship as well. Between 1983 and 1984 a bird flu outbreak in Pennsylvania cost an estimated $65 million after the destruction of over 17 million birds. The virus is capable of surviving in manure for up to three months and can therefore be difficult to eliminate from a population.
The bird flu is a variety of influenza A known as H5N1, which indicates what type of two different proteins the virus has on its outer shell. A virus' H or N designation, which stand for Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase, can change or undergo "reassortment" in animals such as pigs. A pig becomes infected with both a human strain and a bird flu strain and new virus particles are produced that combine some attributes of both. Influenza A, B, and C are the only members of the orthomyxovirus family, while Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is caused by a virus in the coronavirus family.
By Patrick Kerns
March 11, 2005
Concerns about the potential of a worldwide epidemic of avian influenza, or bird flu, are increasing amid a higher than usual number of deaths from the disease in South-East Asian. The World Health Organization (WHO) fears that the dangerous disease may become transmissible from person to person.
Last year 45 people died worldwide from the disease, which is normally contracted from close contact with domesticated birds. In comparison, 42 people have died since the end of January this year.
Over 140 million birds were slaughtered last year alone in attempt to prevent the spread of the bird flu. Presently, the virus has been found in other animals besides humans and birds who were not thought to be vulnerable to the disease, such as cats and tigers.
The first cases of bird flu in humans was diagnosed in Vietnam in January, followed closely by cases in Thailand and one case in Cambodia. This strain of bird flu has also been reported in Korea, China, India and Japan. Currently the disease is being monitored by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response group, who has confirmed 52 cases of bird flu.
In a press release the WHO emphasizes that "there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission." Experts have speculated that if the disease did mutate in a way that allowed such transmission then it would have the potential to claim more lives than SARS did two years ago , in which approximately 800 people died.
According to the WHO, antiviral drugs have shown some ability to combat the disease. Several prototype vaccines for the virus have also been produced from the virus found in Vietnam and a different virus isolated in Hong Kong. Large scale production of vaccines is not imminent as the drug has yet to undergo clinical testing.
While most people consider the flu a relatively nonthreatening disease, it has caused deadly epidemics in the past. In 1918 a human influenza pandemic swept the world, killing 21 million worldwide, with 500,000 dead in the United States alone. Government officials feared a resurgence of the "Spanish Flu" in 1976 after a flu outbreak at Fort Dix Army Base in New Jersey, but their fears proved unfounded. Since then many outbreaks have been prevented as a result of the flu vaccine.
The WHO has recommended that people "should avoid unnecessary contact with infected poultry, especially de-feathering or preparing sick birds for consumption in an area with recent chicken deaths." The Cambodian government is cooperating fully in the WHO's efforts. In the disease monitoring efforts the WHO is collaborating with the Pasteur Institute, the Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture, and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Bird flu is not only a health hazard, but a significant economic hardship as well. Between 1983 and 1984 a bird flu outbreak in Pennsylvania cost an estimated $65 million after the destruction of over 17 million birds. The virus is capable of surviving in manure for up to three months and can therefore be difficult to eliminate from a population.
The bird flu is a variety of influenza A known as H5N1, which indicates what type of two different proteins the virus has on its outer shell. A virus' H or N designation, which stand for Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase, can change or undergo "reassortment" in animals such as pigs. A pig becomes infected with both a human strain and a bird flu strain and new virus particles are produced that combine some attributes of both. Influenza A, B, and C are the only members of the orthomyxovirus family, while Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is caused by a virus in the coronavirus family.
March 10, 2005
More Signs Bird Flu Is Spreading Between Humans
The World Health Organization is reporting cases where multiple members of families are testing positive for bird flu. When multiple infections occur in the same family that raises the threatening possibility that the bird flu is mutating into a form that is more capable of human-to-human transmission. The development of that capability could ignite a deadly worldwide bird flu pandemic which could potentially kill tens of millions of people. Some of the bird influenza cases being found in Vietnamese families are strongly suggestive that human-to-human transmission is taking place.
Since the family members are infected with identical or closely related H5N1, distinguishing between a common source and human transmission is heavily dependent on onset dates. Most cases show symptoms 2-4 days after exposure. Therefore, cases involving a common source will develop symptoms at about the same time. If the transmission is from one family member to another, there will be a longer time lag and the onset dates will be bimodal.
As noted above, the latest familial cluster from Thai Binh has a 7 day differential between onset dates suggesting the sister was infected by her brother.
Sinec primary caregivers for sick family member are most often female another sign of human-to-human transmission is the higher rate of infection of females in cases where multiple family members are diagnosed with bird flu.
However, another way to demonstrate human-to-human transmission in these other familial clusters is to simply compare the gender distribution of the primary cases relative to the secondary. There were 13 index cases in the 12 clusters (in one cluster cousins developed symptoms at the same time). There were 6 females and 7 males indicating the risk to both sexes was similar. In contrast, 11 of the 14 secondaries were female.
Why should we be alarmed by these reports? Karl Nicholson, a professor of infectious diseases at University of Leicester in Britain who currently working on bird flu vaccine development says bird flu has a very high mortality rate.
Based on the current recognized cases of the illness, it seems to have an 80% mortality rate, says Nicholson.
Imagine a virus with such a high mortality rate mutating to become easily transmissible between humans.
However, the mortality rate from bird flu may be overstated due to cases that are not diagnosed.
The World Health Organization said Tuesday that seven Vietnamese patients who initially tested negative for bird flu have been found to be carrying the virus after their samples were retested.
All seven, who were first tested in January, have since recovered, said WHO regional spokesman Peter Cordingley.
Still, even if some of the current estimate for bird flu mortality rate is overstated it is very unlikely to be overstated by, say, a full order of magnitude.
A recent case with a Vietnamese male nurse is another possible case of human-to-human bird flu transmission.
A 26-year-old male nurse from northern Vietnam who provided bedside care for a 21-year-old bird flu patient now in critical condition has himself tested positive for H5N1 avian influenza, according to media reports from the region.
It is possible the nurse was exposed to the patient's blood or mucus. It is not clear that the nurse got the virus from the patient and even if he did it is not clear that the virus was transmitted by a route that would mean the virus has developed greater ability to move between people.
Whether or not these cases indicate the avian flu is now more able to spread between humans the virus is still over there moving through duck, chicken, and other bird populations. It may still mutate into a massive killer pandemic.
Should the bird flu break out into the general population keep in mind that in my past posts I've listed things we ought to do to reduce our risks of getting the flu in the case of a killer pandemic. If I don't turn ou to be one of the early victims when the pandemic starts I'll colllect together all those items and you all can then read my comprehensive list of things you ought to do and ought not do.
One thing you ought to do now: Tell your government to accelerate the development of better flu vaccine production technologies so that when a killer pandemic eventually shows up in the human population we will be able to more quickly and massively manufacture vaccines.
http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002656.html
More Signs Bird Flu Is Spreading Between Humans
The World Health Organization is reporting cases where multiple members of families are testing positive for bird flu. When multiple infections occur in the same family that raises the threatening possibility that the bird flu is mutating into a form that is more capable of human-to-human transmission. The development of that capability could ignite a deadly worldwide bird flu pandemic which could potentially kill tens of millions of people. Some of the bird influenza cases being found in Vietnamese families are strongly suggestive that human-to-human transmission is taking place.
Since the family members are infected with identical or closely related H5N1, distinguishing between a common source and human transmission is heavily dependent on onset dates. Most cases show symptoms 2-4 days after exposure. Therefore, cases involving a common source will develop symptoms at about the same time. If the transmission is from one family member to another, there will be a longer time lag and the onset dates will be bimodal.
As noted above, the latest familial cluster from Thai Binh has a 7 day differential between onset dates suggesting the sister was infected by her brother.
Sinec primary caregivers for sick family member are most often female another sign of human-to-human transmission is the higher rate of infection of females in cases where multiple family members are diagnosed with bird flu.
However, another way to demonstrate human-to-human transmission in these other familial clusters is to simply compare the gender distribution of the primary cases relative to the secondary. There were 13 index cases in the 12 clusters (in one cluster cousins developed symptoms at the same time). There were 6 females and 7 males indicating the risk to both sexes was similar. In contrast, 11 of the 14 secondaries were female.
Why should we be alarmed by these reports? Karl Nicholson, a professor of infectious diseases at University of Leicester in Britain who currently working on bird flu vaccine development says bird flu has a very high mortality rate.
Based on the current recognized cases of the illness, it seems to have an 80% mortality rate, says Nicholson.
Imagine a virus with such a high mortality rate mutating to become easily transmissible between humans.
However, the mortality rate from bird flu may be overstated due to cases that are not diagnosed.
The World Health Organization said Tuesday that seven Vietnamese patients who initially tested negative for bird flu have been found to be carrying the virus after their samples were retested.
All seven, who were first tested in January, have since recovered, said WHO regional spokesman Peter Cordingley.
Still, even if some of the current estimate for bird flu mortality rate is overstated it is very unlikely to be overstated by, say, a full order of magnitude.
A recent case with a Vietnamese male nurse is another possible case of human-to-human bird flu transmission.
A 26-year-old male nurse from northern Vietnam who provided bedside care for a 21-year-old bird flu patient now in critical condition has himself tested positive for H5N1 avian influenza, according to media reports from the region.
It is possible the nurse was exposed to the patient's blood or mucus. It is not clear that the nurse got the virus from the patient and even if he did it is not clear that the virus was transmitted by a route that would mean the virus has developed greater ability to move between people.
Whether or not these cases indicate the avian flu is now more able to spread between humans the virus is still over there moving through duck, chicken, and other bird populations. It may still mutate into a massive killer pandemic.
Should the bird flu break out into the general population keep in mind that in my past posts I've listed things we ought to do to reduce our risks of getting the flu in the case of a killer pandemic. If I don't turn ou to be one of the early victims when the pandemic starts I'll colllect together all those items and you all can then read my comprehensive list of things you ought to do and ought not do.
One thing you ought to do now: Tell your government to accelerate the development of better flu vaccine production technologies so that when a killer pandemic eventually shows up in the human population we will be able to more quickly and massively manufacture vaccines.
http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/002656.html