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http://www.realclearworld.com/artic...middle_easts_strangest_bedfellows_111359.html
August 6, 2015
A Shakespearean Middle East's Strangest Bedfellows
By Aaron David Miller
In Shakespeare's The Tempest, Act 2, Scene 2, Trinculo coins a phrase that has held true throughout the ages -- certainly in politics and foreign policy:
"Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows. I will here shroud till the dregs of the storm be past."
Nowhere is the Bard's wisdom better played out than in contemporary Middle Eastern politics, an arena where changing circumstances and shifting opportunities force strange relationships and unexpected associations. How long these unlikely pairings endure may well depend on how long and how turbulent the dregs of the current storm may be. But even when the new associations are driven by mandatory tactical adjustments -- based on the principle that the enemy of my enemy is my friend -- they speak to the triumph of pragmatism over principles, and of survival over ideological or even religious conviction in a combustible region. Here are my top five strange bedfellows.
Saudis and Al-Qaeda in Yemen: As David Ottaway points out in his recent analysis of the Yemen war, the exigencies of battle are compelling Saudi Arabia to cooperate with at least one of its implacable foes. In mid-July, the Wall Street Journal reported that al-Qaeda fighters had taken up their arms alongside Saudi-backed Sunni tribal militias in an effort to take back the port city of Aden. Further, Riyadh-residing Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi's delegation to ill-fated Yemeni peace talks included an al-Qaeda operative who made the U.S. Treasury's Specially Designated Global Terrorist list in 2013 because of his associations with al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP. Think about it. In 2009, an AQAP suicide bomber nearly killed Mohammed bin Nayef, now the Kingdom's deputy Crown prince. Yet Saudi determination to beat the Iranian-backed Houthis seems to trump their awareness of al-Qaeda's prime objective: to overthrow what they consider the corrupt Sunni regimes in the region. The same logic applies to Syria, where Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar support radical Islamic groups tied to Al-Qaeda in order to oppose the Assad regime.
Saudis and the Muslim Brotherhood: Last week's visit to Riyadh by a Hamas delegation gave rise to yet another bizarre twist in Middle East politics. A new Saudi king has utterly reversed the policy of his predecessor. Whereas before the Saudis worked to isolate Hamas and its parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Saudis are reaching out to the Brotherhood -- and publicly playing host to Hamas.The same motivation that drives Riyadh to cooperate with al-Qaeda applies here: countering the Iranian threat. Just days ago, Hamas spokesmen announced that Iran was terminating its assistance to the group. So the door is now open to a renewal of Saudi aid to Hamas. But embryonic Saudi ties to the Brotherhood go beyond Gaza. Riyadh is also cozying up to the Yemeni Islah party -- a Brotherhood offshoot -- to advance their agenda in Yemen against the Houthis.
Israel and Hamas: One of the strangest alignments is the off-and-on effort by Israel and Hamas to create a sustainable modus vivendi. On one level, having waged three wars in half a dozen years, it seems strange even to talk about a relationship. But proximity sometimes breeds not just children and contempt, as Ben Franklin said, but pragmatism too -- the two are perversely dependent on each other. Israel cannot or will not destroy Hamas because it does not want chaos in Gaza and is not prepared to reoccupy the territory, nor to open the door to jihadists linked to the Islamic State. Hamas needs Israel as its target to maintain its revolutionary credentials, and the group cannot reopen Gaza without an end to Israeli and Egyptian restrictions. In the past several years, there have been credible reports of negotiations between Israel and Hamas to cut a deal for a long-term interim agreement. Hamas would stand down its high-trajectory weapons for a 15-year cease-fire, and Israel would agree to open up Gaza. Mistrust between the two sides, as well as and internal politics, make it hard to envision a formal agreement. Still, both parties also share another common objective: weakening Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would much prefer to secure a long-term accord with Hamas than to engage in negotiations over 1967 borders and the status of Jerusalem with Abbas.
Nuclear deal fallout: We might also add the growing alignment between Israel and Saudi Arabia to the list; and for that matter the historic opening in U.S.-Iranian relations. Both are examples of how narrow interests -- on one side, the desire to oppose an accord on the nuclear issue; on the other, the determination to reach one and defuse a potential crisis -- can substantively change relations between longstanding rivals. But the broader point on strange bedfellows is perhaps more important. What is prompting the joining of most of these odd couples is a region in turmoil, and a shift in the balance of regional power as states respond to the fear of a rising Iran, and the consequences that rise may bring.
Aaron David Miller, a Vice President at the Woodrow Wilson Center, served as a Middle East negotiator, analyst and adviser in Republican and Democratic Administrations.
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/artic...middle_easts_strangest_bedfellows_111359.html
August 6, 2015
A Shakespearean Middle East's Strangest Bedfellows
By Aaron David Miller
In Shakespeare's The Tempest, Act 2, Scene 2, Trinculo coins a phrase that has held true throughout the ages -- certainly in politics and foreign policy:
"Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows. I will here shroud till the dregs of the storm be past."
Nowhere is the Bard's wisdom better played out than in contemporary Middle Eastern politics, an arena where changing circumstances and shifting opportunities force strange relationships and unexpected associations. How long these unlikely pairings endure may well depend on how long and how turbulent the dregs of the current storm may be. But even when the new associations are driven by mandatory tactical adjustments -- based on the principle that the enemy of my enemy is my friend -- they speak to the triumph of pragmatism over principles, and of survival over ideological or even religious conviction in a combustible region. Here are my top five strange bedfellows.
Saudis and Al-Qaeda in Yemen: As David Ottaway points out in his recent analysis of the Yemen war, the exigencies of battle are compelling Saudi Arabia to cooperate with at least one of its implacable foes. In mid-July, the Wall Street Journal reported that al-Qaeda fighters had taken up their arms alongside Saudi-backed Sunni tribal militias in an effort to take back the port city of Aden. Further, Riyadh-residing Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi's delegation to ill-fated Yemeni peace talks included an al-Qaeda operative who made the U.S. Treasury's Specially Designated Global Terrorist list in 2013 because of his associations with al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP. Think about it. In 2009, an AQAP suicide bomber nearly killed Mohammed bin Nayef, now the Kingdom's deputy Crown prince. Yet Saudi determination to beat the Iranian-backed Houthis seems to trump their awareness of al-Qaeda's prime objective: to overthrow what they consider the corrupt Sunni regimes in the region. The same logic applies to Syria, where Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar support radical Islamic groups tied to Al-Qaeda in order to oppose the Assad regime.
Saudis and the Muslim Brotherhood: Last week's visit to Riyadh by a Hamas delegation gave rise to yet another bizarre twist in Middle East politics. A new Saudi king has utterly reversed the policy of his predecessor. Whereas before the Saudis worked to isolate Hamas and its parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Saudis are reaching out to the Brotherhood -- and publicly playing host to Hamas.The same motivation that drives Riyadh to cooperate with al-Qaeda applies here: countering the Iranian threat. Just days ago, Hamas spokesmen announced that Iran was terminating its assistance to the group. So the door is now open to a renewal of Saudi aid to Hamas. But embryonic Saudi ties to the Brotherhood go beyond Gaza. Riyadh is also cozying up to the Yemeni Islah party -- a Brotherhood offshoot -- to advance their agenda in Yemen against the Houthis.
Israel and Hamas: One of the strangest alignments is the off-and-on effort by Israel and Hamas to create a sustainable modus vivendi. On one level, having waged three wars in half a dozen years, it seems strange even to talk about a relationship. But proximity sometimes breeds not just children and contempt, as Ben Franklin said, but pragmatism too -- the two are perversely dependent on each other. Israel cannot or will not destroy Hamas because it does not want chaos in Gaza and is not prepared to reoccupy the territory, nor to open the door to jihadists linked to the Islamic State. Hamas needs Israel as its target to maintain its revolutionary credentials, and the group cannot reopen Gaza without an end to Israeli and Egyptian restrictions. In the past several years, there have been credible reports of negotiations between Israel and Hamas to cut a deal for a long-term interim agreement. Hamas would stand down its high-trajectory weapons for a 15-year cease-fire, and Israel would agree to open up Gaza. Mistrust between the two sides, as well as and internal politics, make it hard to envision a formal agreement. Still, both parties also share another common objective: weakening Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would much prefer to secure a long-term accord with Hamas than to engage in negotiations over 1967 borders and the status of Jerusalem with Abbas.
Nuclear deal fallout: We might also add the growing alignment between Israel and Saudi Arabia to the list; and for that matter the historic opening in U.S.-Iranian relations. Both are examples of how narrow interests -- on one side, the desire to oppose an accord on the nuclear issue; on the other, the determination to reach one and defuse a potential crisis -- can substantively change relations between longstanding rivals. But the broader point on strange bedfellows is perhaps more important. What is prompting the joining of most of these odd couples is a region in turmoil, and a shift in the balance of regional power as states respond to the fear of a rising Iran, and the consequences that rise may bring.
Aaron David Miller, a Vice President at the Woodrow Wilson Center, served as a Middle East negotiator, analyst and adviser in Republican and Democratic Administrations.