WAR 05-05-2018-to-05-11-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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(319) 04-14-2018-to-04-20-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...4-20-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(320) 04-21-2018-to-04-27-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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(321) 04-28-2018-to-05-04-2018___****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****
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https://www.rferl.org/a/pentagon-ci...us-nato-presence-north-atlantic/29209678.html

Russia

Pentagon, Citing Russian Patrols, Bolsters U.S., NATO Presence In North Atlantic

Last Updated: May 05, 2018 04:44 GMT
RFE/RL

The Pentagon has launched a new naval command to bolster the U.S. and NATO presence in the northern Atlantic Ocean, citing an increased Russian presence in those waters.

"The return to great power competition and a resurgent Russia demands that NATO refocus on the Atlantic to ensure dedicated reinforcement of the continent and demonstrate a capable and credible deterrence effect," Johnny Michael, a Pentagon spokesman, said on May 4.

The new NATO command "will be the linchpin of trans-Atlantic security," he said. Outlines of the plan were approved at a February meeting of NATO defense ministers as part of a broader effort to ensure the security of the sea lanes and lines of communication between Europe and North America.

The Pentagon's decision reflects growing worries across Europe and within NATO about Russia's increased military presence and patrols in the Atlantic region.

Russia has increased its patrols in the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic, and the Arctic, NATO officials say, although the size of its navy is smaller now than during the Cold War era.

Despite evidence that Russia's weak economy forced Moscow to slash military spending by 20 percent last year, Czech Army General Petr Pavel, the chairman of NATO's Military Committee, told RFE/RL in an interview that NATO still must build up its defenses.

"Russian military capabilities, both conventional and nuclear, are significant," he said. "And we simply cannot be blind to an increase of defense capabilities in all services, all domains. That's why we have to react."

Under the new plan, the United States will set up NATO's new Atlantic Command headquarters in Norfolk, Virginia, where the Pentagon is also offering to host a proposed NATO Joint Force Command.

Russia 'More Assertive'
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in February that "we have seen a much more assertive Russia, we have seen a Russia which has over many years invested heavily in their military capabilities, modernized their military capabilities, which are exercising not only conventional forces but also nuclear forces."

He said the new Atlantic Command will be vital for the alliance to be able to respond. NATO also created a new logistics command, which is expected to be located in Germany.

At the same time, the U.S. Navy is re-establishing its 2nd Fleet command, which was eliminated in 2011 in a move to save costs.

Admiral John Richardson, the chief of naval operations, said the move comes as the security environment "continues to grow more challenging and complex" now that "we're back in an era of great power competition."

The Navy said the command will oversee ships, aircraft, and landing forces on the East Coast and northern Atlantic Ocean, and will be responsible for training forces and conducting maritime operations in the region.

Restarting the command was one of several recommendations in a Navy study done following two deadly ship collisions last year that killed a total of 17 sailors.

The command will begin operations July 1. It will report to U.S. Fleet Forces, and will initially include 11 officers and 4 enlisted personnel. Those numbers will eventually increase to more than 250 personnel, the Pentagon said.

With reporting by AP and Reuters
 

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https://www.voanews.com/a/us-led-coalition-to-reduce-forces-in-iraq/4378785.html

Extremism Watch

US-Led Coalition to Reduce Forces in Iraq

May 04, 2018 9:24 PM
Rikar Hussein

The U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State (IS) said Friday that a small number of its forces might leave Iraq following a decision to shut down its ground forces command headquarters, known as the Combined Joint Forces Land Component Command (CJFLCC).

The coalition announced the shutdown of the headquarters on Monday during a ceremony in Baghdad. It said the decision marked the end of major combat operations in Iraq and Syria against IS and a change in the responsibilities of the coalition.

“The efficiencies gained by headquarters consolidation will enable a slight reduction in personnel within the theater of operations,” U.S. Army Colonel Thomas Veale, a spokesman for the coalition, told VOA.

Veale said the change would consolidate the coalition’s missions to advise and assist the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) under a single headquarters.

“This reflects the coalition’s commitment to eliminate unnecessary command structures as the nature of its support to the ISF evolves from supporting and enabling combat operations to the training and development of self-sufficient Iraqi security-related capabilities,” he added.

5,000 U.S. troops in Iraq
The exact number of coalition forces in Iraq is unknown, but the U.S. has said it currently has an estimated 5,000 forces in the country.

Veale said that number “will gradually decrease over time as the ISF demonstrates increased capability and capacity.”

The Iraqi government declared victory over the Islamic State terror group last December when the militants lost control over their last pockets in western Anbar, near the border with Syria.

Comments about the withdrawal of coalition forces were made openly in February when Iraqi government spokesman Saad al-Hadithi said “the battle against IS has ended and so the level of the American presence will be reduced.”

Shift in focus
At the same time, the coalition declared it was shifting its focus in Iraq away from supporting Iraqi combat operations to sustaining military gains against IS in the country.

Colonel John Thomas, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East, at that time told VOA that a “small number” of troops had shifted from Iraq to bolster a campaign against militants in Afghanistan.

More recently, Turkish state-owned Anadolu Agency reported last week that an unknown number of French troops had left their positions in Iraq's Nineveh province to go to northeastern Syria, where the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are engaged in an operation to oust IS remnants from their last strongholds in Deir el-Zour province.

The next phase
Emboldened by the achievements over IS, Iraqi officials say they have entered the next phase in their relations with the coalition and other allies who helped them defeat the terror group.

“The commitment and professionalism of all the men and women from all the coalition nations has been of the highest order, and Iraq is immensely grateful for their sacrifice and dedication in this task,” Iraqi Brigadier General Yahya Rasool Abdullah said during the coalition announcement Monday.

“We look forward to taking the partnership forward with the Combined Joint Task Force, and a friendship that will endure for years to come,” he added.
 

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https://breakingdefense.com/2018/05...116.981503105.1525426160-696604853.1524741810

acquisition, budget, Congress

HASC Budget Adds Hypersonic Weapons, A-10s, Strykers, But Fewer Bureaucrats

The budget battles have begun, with Republicans and Democrats already sparring over Rep. Mac Thornberry's call to slash DoD civilians by 20 percent.

By Paul McLeary
on May 04, 2018 at 2:48 PM
50 Comments

CAPITOL HILL: There’s a fight brewing in Congress over one leading Republican lawmaker’s proposal for a 25 percent cut to over two dozen Pentagon support offices. The plan was included in the markup of the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act released Friday by the House Armed Services Committee.

HASC chairman Mac Thornberry added language in his committee’s markup of Pentagon’s budget that would slash a good chunk of the funding for the so-called “Fourth Estate,” which employs hundreds of thousands of government employees and contractors who perform support functions in the fields of civilian resources, services contracting oversight, and logistics.

The nearly 30 offices targeted consume about 20 percent of the Pentagon’s overall budget, but House aides said Friday that even the Pentagon doesn’t have a handle of exactly how much they cost.

A document released by the minority Democrats on the HASC on Friday slammed the reduction, calling them “an unrealistic and unnecessary sequester-like automatic (cut)” that would eliminate critical support functions.

Republican staffers quickly pushed back. “You’re talking about the bureaucracy for the bureaucracy,” one House aide said. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the aide said that many of the functions are redundant, since they’re already being provided by the services themselves.

“Is that middleman adding any capability, or is it simply reducing the efficiency and speed” needed to reform the department, the aide asked. The idea behind Thornberry’s changes are to “empower the Secretary of Defense to go in and evaluate” these offices and recommend ways to slim them down.

Parade? Yes. Tanks? No
Thornberry’s mark also supports President Trump’s call for a military parade later this year. But the chairman was careful to set some limits. “We don’t want to see tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue,” one committee aide said.

The HASC mark says that while the parade can go on, it “prohibits the use of operational units or equipment…if the Secretary of Defense believes such use will hamper readiness.”

The markup in many ways mirrors the subcommittee marks released last week, and often doesn’t differ in significant ways from the president’s budget released in February.

The HASC mark authorizes $639 billion for the Pentagon’s base budget spending and another $69 billion for OCO, for an overall price tag of $708 billion. A few points:

It sticks with the 77 Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters requested by Trump.

It adds $65 million to repair A-10 Warthog ground attack planes, which the Air Force had long been tried to retire before giving in to Congress’s fervor to keep the plane.

Given the rash of fatalities as the result of military aircraft accidents over the past year — which have killed 46 servicemembers — the bill adds $24.2 million to increase flight training hours over what the president requested.

HASC also added money for two additional Littoral Combat Ships, and funding for two more attack submarines in the 2022-23 time frame, as well as the block buy of two nuclear aircraft carriers.

The chairman also added an additional $338 million for Stryker infantry carriers.

The bill also adds $150 million to develop a conventional prompt global strike weapon, a hypersonic capability that Pentagon leaders have been clamoring for.

The full document — with all the numbers — will be released on Monday, followed by a day (and night)-long hearing on the docket on Wednesday to slash and burn through amendment requests by HASC members.
 

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...pressure-to-limit-its-influence-idUSKBN1I80OL

World News May 7, 2018 / 1:24 AM / Updated 24 minutes ago

Iran says it will fiercely resist U.S. pressure to limit its influence

Reuters Staff
2 Min Read

ANKARA (Reuters) - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday the United States would regret a decision to leave Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and Tehran would fiercely resist U.S. pressure to limit its influence in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump, a long-time critic of the deal reached between Iran and six powers in 2015 before he took office, has threatened to pull out unless European signatories of the accord fix what he calls its “flaws” by May 12.

“If they want to make sure that we are not after a nuclear bomb, we have said repeatedly that we are not and we will not be ... but if they want to weaken Iran and limit its influence whether in the region or globally, Iran will fiercely resist,” Rouhani said in a speech broadcast live on state television.

Under the deal with the United States, France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China, Tehran restricted its uranium enrichment program to satisfy the powers that it could not be used to develop atomic bombs. In exchange, Iran received relief from sanctions, most of which were lifted in January 2016.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned that Tehran’s “fierce reaction to a violation of the nuclear deal with major powers will not be pleasant for America”, state TV reported.

Britain, France and Germany remain committed to the nuclear accord but, in an effort to keep Washington in it, want to open talks on Iran’s ballistic missile program, its nuclear activities beyond 2025 - when key provisions of the deal expire - and its role in the wars in Syria and Yemen.

Writing by Parisa Hafezi; Editing by Mark Heinrich
 

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https://www.thecipherbrief.com/arti...fghan-talibans-increasingly-lethal-insurgency

Threat Report 2018: The Afghan Taliban’s Increasingly Lethal Insurgency

May 6, 2018 | Cipher Brief Analysis

Violence once again grips Afghanistan, with the Taliban, the Islamic State and other terror groups carrying out deadly attacks and kidnappings across the country. Last month, the Taliban announced the beginning of its annual “spring offensive,” and this past weekend bombed a mosque that was being used as a voter registration center, killing 14 and injuring dozens more.

What follows is a section of The Cipher Brief’s 2018 Annual Threat Report, which breaks down the greatest threats facing the United States and the world at this point in time. For more information on the full report, please click here.

Bottom Line: The Afghan Taliban is mounting an increasingly lethal insurgency across Afghanistan, as both U.S. troops and Afghan Security Forces face near-everyday violence throughout the country. With the Taliban gaining momentum and reasserting control in remote, loosely governed parts of the country, the window for reaching a negotiated peace to end the ongoing conflict is rapidly closing.

Background: The Afghan Taliban was formed in September 1994 in the predominantly Pashtun areas of southern Afghanistan under the leadership of Mullah Mohammad Omar, along with a group of Afghan clerics and religious students with ties to hardline mujahedeen rebels that had fought against the Soviet Union during its invasion of Afghanistan.

  • Literally translated as “the students,” the Afgan Taliban gained popular support in southern Afghanistan by pledging to bring stability to a region fraught with conflict. The group imposed strict Sharia law in areas it controlled, carrying out amputations and executions. Television, Western music and dancing were prohibited, and women were banned from attending school.
  • The Afghan Taliban, along with many mujahedeen fighters who subsequently joined the movement, maintain longstanding ties to Pakistan dating back to the late 1970s and 1980s when the U.S. government turned to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) as a conduit to funnel U.S. and Saudi weapons and money to mujahedeen fighting against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Following the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in February 1989, many mujahedeen crossed over into Pakistan where they were educated in Islamic seminaries known as madrassas and later joined the Afghan Taliban.
  • The Soviet Union’s retreat left a power vacuum in Afghanistan, and the Taliban’s forceful military approach enabled the group to assume control over the country in May 1996. Pakistan’s ISI supported the Taliban’s rise to power as part of its broader regional strategy to install a friendly government in Kabul and prevent India from extending its influence into Afghanistan.
  • In October 2001, the U.S. initiated combat operations in Afghanistan against the Taliban government after it refused to hand over Afghan-based Al-Qaida leaders and operatives who were deemed responsible for orchestrating the 9/11 attacks. The U.S. military succeeded in pushing both groups to retreat to the mountainous Afghan-Pakistan border. On May 1, 2003, U.S. President George W. Bush delivered his infamous “Mission Accomplished” speech declaring, “In the battle of Afghanistan, we destroyed the Taliban, many terrorists, and the camps where they trained.” Yet, the Afghan Taliban has not been listed by the U.S. State Department as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, presumably to allow eventual peace talks with the group.
  • A key faction within the Afghan Taliban is the Haqqani network, which was founded by Jalaluddin Haqqani in the 1970s and emerged as one of the most important mujahedeen resistance units fighting against the Soviets during their invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Throughout the Afghan-Soviet war, the Haqqani network established strong ties with Pakistan’s intelligence services, receiving U.S. weapons and Saudi funds that were funneled to mujahedeen groups through the ISI. Jalaluddin Haqqani formally joined the Taliban in 1995, serving as a military commander and cabinet member.
  • After the fall of the Taliban government in Afghanistan in October 2001, the Haqqani network retreated to Pakistan where it continued to direct and conduct terrorist activity inside Afghanistan. The U.S. State Department designated the Haqqani network as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in September 2012. Ties between the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban were further strengthened in July 2015, when Jalaluddin’s son, Sirajuddin Haqqani, was appointed as a deputy leader of the Taliban. It is estimated that the Haqqani network can draw from some 10,000 fighters to carry out its operations.

Dan Markey, Academic Director of the Global Policy Program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

“The Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network and al-Qaida leaders have all found opportunities for safe haven inside Pakistan. Of the three groups, the Haqqanis are widely perceived to have maintained the best terms with the Pakistani state. Washington generally views the Haqqanis as the proxy group with which Pakistan enjoys the greatest influence and control, which helps to explain the particular frustration that U.S. policymakers feel at Haqqani attacks on U.S., NATO and Afghan forces.”

Issue: Through persistent violence, the Afghan Taliban has crippled the Afghan government’s ability to exercise authority across the country, paving the way for terrorist organizations and other extremist groups to find safe haven in ungoverned spaces. Furthermore, the Afghan Taliban’s surge has directly impacted and strained U.S.-Pakistan relations, with Washington accusing Islamabad of harboring and supporting the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.

  • From the 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment: “The overall situation in Afghanistan probably will deteriorate modestly this year in the face of persistent political instability, sustained attacks by the Taliban-led insurgency, unsteady Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) performance, and chronic financial shortfalls. The ANSF probably will maintain control of most major population centers with coalition force support, but the intensity and geographic scope of Taliban activities will put those centers under continued strain.”
  • A January 2018 BBC report concluded that the Taliban threatens nearly 70 percent of Afghan territory. According to the study, the Taliban runs 14 districts – roughly four percent of the country – and approximately half of Afghanistan’s population lives in areas that are susceptible to some level of Taliban violence or influence. According to the most recent quarterly report issued by the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the Afghan government controls only 55.8 percent of the country. Both of these statistics represent alarming trend lines with respect to Taliban gains.
  • News reports from January 2018 cite U.S. and Afghan officials who assess that the Taliban maintains a force of around 60,000 fighters – a significant increase from 2014 estimates, which placed the group’s numbers at around 20,000.
  • The Afghan government and the Trump administration have blamed Pakistan for failing to root out Afghan Taliban, Haqqani and Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin leaders, who they believe find safe haven on the Pakistani side of the border. Pakistani officials deny the charges, instead accusing Kabul of failing to crack down on militants it says are sheltering in Afghanistan.

Dan Markey, Academic Director of the Global Policy Program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

“In the aftermath of 9/11, the Pakistanis chose to be with us for multiple reasons, but mainly because they decided that the alternatives were too costly. But as they started to realize that our attention in Afghanistan began to wander, most importantly to the war in Iraq, that we weren’t actually hunting down and killing all al-Qaida and Taliban leaders and that we were going to leave Afghanistan a bit of a mess, then they reverted back to an influence strategy, using many of the same groups and individuals that they had come to know over decades.”

Response: While the U.S. military has maintained a consistent troop presence in Afghanistan since 2001 and has diligently trained, advised, supplied and assisted the Afghan National Security Forces, policymakers in Washington have failed to articulate a clear strategic objective in Afghanistan throughout the nearly 17-year conflict and peace talks with the Afghan Taliban remain elusive. The Trump administration has faced the same uncertainty with its approach to Afghanistan, although it has pressed Pakistan to rescind its support for certain militant groups and bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table.

  • In August 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump revealed his strategy for Afghanistan, which included a shift from a time-based approach to a conditions-based approach for U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan. Trump also announced that transparency about troop numbers and military activities was off the table, stating that “America’s enemies must never know our plans or believe they can wait us out.”
  • The U.S. has approximately 15,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan, while an additional 3,000 NATO forces from U.S.-allied nations were deployed in January 2018, bringing the total number of NATO forces in Afghanistan to around 16,000.
  • As of August 2017, Afghan forces numbered an estimated 320,000 troops. The Afghans took primary responsibility for their security in January 2015, and the goal strength for the defense force is approximately 352,000 people, including roughly 195,000 members of the Afghan National Army and 157,000 in the Afghan National Police. Reaching these goals has proven challenging, however, as Afghan casualties rise due to increasingly common and deadly Taliban strikes across the country, and the Afghan Army faces more difficult recruiting prospects.
  • The Trump administration is withholding more than $1 billion worth of security assistance from Pakistan, including $900 million in Coalition Support Funding, due to Pakistan’s failure to crack down on members of the Haqqani network and the Afghan Taliban inside its territory. The Trump administration has provided Pakistan with a hit list of nearly a dozen top militants to detain as a way to demonstrate its willingness to cooperate and win back security funding. Aid to Pakistan has been suspended before. In July 2011, the Obama administration blocked $800 million in aid to Pakistan, after the U.S. found Osama bin Laden had been hiding in the country.
  • Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban have thus far failed to gain traction since the July 2017 launch of the Kabul Process for Peace & Security Cooperation, which aims to bring a political settlement to the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. In February 2018, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani called on the Taliban to join the peace effort, offering to grant the group political party status with an office in Kabul, help remove Taliban leaders from terrorist blacklists and negotiate without preconditions. However, the Taliban has insisted on direct negotiations with the United States, while Washington has maintained that any talks must first occur between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Washington has also asked Pakistan to use its influence to bring the Afghan Taliban to the table.

General Michael Hayden, former Director, CIA and NSA

“Frankly, what I think our objective is in Afghanistan is to make sure it doesn’t become something we can’t live with. In other words, realism about Afghanistan suggests this will take a long time, and the final outcome will not be totally satisfactory.”

Looking Ahead: A decade and a half after 9/11, the Taliban has reasserted itself as an important player in Afghanistan, holding significant territory and influence in the country. As the Afghan government and security forces have failed to stop Taliban advances, and an alienated Pakistan may now be less willing to help bring the Taliban to talks, the most likely outcome is a continuing stalemate, with the U.S. and NATO providing just enough firepower to keep the Kabul government in control of the populated parts of the country.

Kevin Hulbert, former Chief of Station, CIA

“When it comes to Afghanistan, we are stuck in a stalemate and pursuing the morally ambiguous course of action of doing just enough not to lose, but not really enough to win. The way forward will be determined by clarifying our objectives and by recognizing that there are alternative courses of action more elaborate and nuanced than the simple and binary calculation over whether to put more or less boots on the ground. President Trump’s actions on both Afghanistan and Pakistan over the last year may have created some forward momentum in the long sought after goal of Taliban reconciliation and there do seem to be some flickers of light at the end of what has been a very long tunnel. However, I’m not sure if that nascent light flickering is some sort of an exit and a way forward with the Taliban and other factions, or the light of an oncoming train. The idea of “Taliban reconciliation” is something we have unsuccessfully sought for many years.”

Bennett Seftel was the analyst who produced this report. Follow him on Twitter @BennettSeftel.

To learn more about the complete 2018 Threat Report, please visit this page.

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http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/261464/how-malaysia-became-a-training-ground-for-hamas

The Scroll

How Malaysia Became a Training Ground for Hamas

The assassination of an engineer in Kuala Lumpur last month is another sign that the terrorist group is getting cozy in Asia

By Jonathan Schanzer
May 4, 2018 • 10:00 AM

It was like a scene out of the Mission: Impossible series. Two assassins on BMW motorbikes gunned down 34-year old Fradi Al-Batsh on the morning of April 21 in Kuala Lumpur. Al-Batsh was riddled with eight bullets before his attackers sped away.

Al-Batsh was a 34-year-old electrical engineer, a PhD in power systems and energy efficiency, and a lecturer at the British Malaysian Institute. As it turns out, he was also a loyal and active member of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, working on the development of drones and rockets. He may also have been negotiating arms deals on behalf of Hamas with the North Koreans.

Reports suggest that it was agents of the Israeli spy agency, the Mossad, who killed al-Batsh. This only seems logical. But less obvious is what a Hamas weapons developer was doing in Malaysia in the first place.

As it turns out, Hamas has a significant presence in Malaysia. For years, the terrorist group has used Malaysia to engage in financial activities and even plan operations from outside Gaza, particularly as the group has been forced out of its traditional Middle East areas of operations, such as Syria.

Malaysia doesn’t appear to be concerned about the optics of this Hamas presence. As the Inspector General of Police in Malaysia said at a press conference last year, “If they come in peace and do not create any problems, then what is the issue?”

The problem is that Hamas operatives don’t come in peace. In 2012, at least ten members of Hamas traveled to Malaysia for training to prepare for a cross-border attack against Israel. The group reportedly trained for kidnapping soldiers, anti-tank ambushes, and sniper attacks.

In 2014, Israel conducted a sweeping raid in the West Bank, during which it captured Majdi Mafarja, who admitted to training in message encryption and computer hacking for Hamas in Malaysia. Israeli security services arrested him for having served as courier for encoded messages on behalf of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades–the so-called military wing of Hamas.

In 2015, the Israeli press reported that at least two senior Hamas officials were operating out of Malaysia: Ma’an Hatib and Radwan al-Atrash. Hatib was described as “responsible in Malaysia for the Hamas foreign desk,” while Atrash was seen as “a senior figure in the Shura [consultative] council” for the organization. Hamas also operated a cultural organization in Malaysia called Rabitat Bilad al-Sham (Greater Syria Association).

In 2015, Israel alleged that a group of Palestinian students had been sent to Malaysia back in 2010 to learn how to use hang gliders to infiltrate Israel for an attack. This came after the Israel security services arrested Waseem Qawasmeh, a 24-year-old student who had studied in Malaysia. He was charged with belonging to Hamas and receiving funding from the terror group. Both Malaysia and Hamas denied this accusation.

In the meantime, Malaysia’s political ties with Hamas have only grown closer. In 2013, Malaysia’s prime minister Najib Razak visited the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, making him the first non-Arab leader to visit the coastal enclave after Hamas wrested control of it from the Palestinian Authority in a brutal civil war in 2007. Razak pledged political and financial support to the Hamas government during his five-hour visit—a move that generated significant goodwill for the prime minister back home among the country’s Islamists, and is likely the reason for his continued support to Hamas.

Soon after, a Hamas delegation led by then-Politburo chief Khaled Meshaal visited Kuala Lumpur for reciprocal official meetings. Meshaal even visited the university where the aspiring hang-gliding terrorists had studied. Subsequent visits included the December 2015 return to Kuala Lumpur of Meshaal, who openly advocated for violence against Israel. These exchanges had the effect of burnishing Hamas’ image worldwide, while also strengthening Razak’s standing with Malaysia’s Muslim community.

In its annual Country Reports on Terrorism, the U.S. Department of State gives Malaysia high marks for its efforts to combat global terrorism, both in terms of arrests and halting the flow of terror funds. Curiously, it leaves out Malaysia’s longstanding and troubling support for Hamas, a group that features prominently on Washington’s terrorism lists. The presence of al-Batsh, not to mention the other operatives noted above, makes it difficult for Malaysia to deny that it is providing safe harbor to the group.

The longer Hamas operatives like al-Batsh are welcome on Malaysian soil, the more likely it becomes that Israel moves against them. But for Kuala Lumpur, the concern should probably be the financial links that can be drawn between the terrorist group and Malaysian banks or financial institutions. With the Hamas-Malaysia connection increasingly exposed, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where new U.S. sanctions are not under consideration.

Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism finance analyst at the United States Department of the Treasury, is senior vice president for research at Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
 

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-elections/ar-AAwTpK9?ocid=spartandhp&ffid=gz

Gun attack on minister deepens political divisions as Pakistan nears elections

By Saad Sayeed and Mubasher Bukhari
8 hrs ago
Reuters

An assassination attempt on a minister has deepened divisions ahead of Pakistan's elections, with an Islamist party denying involvement and an opposition figure blaming it on fiery rhetoric by the ousted premier.

A gunman shot interior minister Ahsan Iqbal, a senior member of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and ally of ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif, as he was leaving a constituency meeting in Punjab province late on Sunday.

Iqbal was recovering in hospital from a bullet wound on Monday.

Police have arrested the suspected shooter, describing him as a supporter of the new hardline Islamist party Tehreek-e-Labaik, but the party has disowned the man.

Sunday's attack heightened the sense of unease in the runup to the general election, expected by late July.

Leaders from Pakistan's main opposition parties all condemned the assassination attempt. But a prominent official of former cricket star Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) opposition party said Sharif had created the backdrop for the attack at large rallies protesting his removal by the Supreme Court last July.

"We condemn it with full force. But the political climate is being seriously affected by Nawaz's wild accusations against his opponents and creating tension and anger all over," said Khan's chief of staff, Naeem ul Haq.

"So if Nawaz [Sharif] continues to utter poison, such incidents will continue to occur."

Pakistan's Supreme Court disqualified Sharif as prime minister last July over a small source of unreported income and he is currently on trial before an anti-corruption court, though his party still holds a majority in parliament.

Sharif has denounced the court ruling as a conspiracy led by rival Khan, routinely gathering large crowds of his supporters to voice his grievances.

Sharif has portrayed Khan as a puppet of the powerful military establishment, which has a history of meddling in Pakistani politics. Khan denies colluding with the army and the military denies interfering in politics.

Preliminary reports suggested Sunday's attacker had links to a new Islamist political party that campaigns on enforcing the death penalty for blasphemy and replacing secular influence on government with strict sharia law.

Late on Monday, Naeem messaged Reuters with an additional statement, saying: "Religious bigotry is increasing and diluting our politics in a negative way."

ATTACKER 'SHOUTED PARTY SLOGAN'
The assassination attempt on Iqbal has stoked fears of a repeat of the pre-election violence by Islamists that blighted the last two polls, including in 2007 when former prime minister Benazir Bhutto was killed on the campaign trail.

In Sunday's attack, a senior Punjab police official who was present during the interrogation of the suspected shooter - named as Abid Hussain, 21 - told Reuters his statements provided "solid evidence" he was a supporter of the Labaik party but not of any contact with party leaders.

"A moment before the attack, he shouted the slogan 'Labaik, labaik ya Rasool!' (I am here, I am here, oh Prophet of God!), a trademark slogan of Labaik party," the police official said.

But the official added: "At the same time, he talks like a mentally challenged person."

During interrogation, the suspect said "his conscience told him" to attack Iqbal over Labaik's accusations that the ruling party had committed blasphemy, by trying to change election law in a way some said weakened an oath declaring Mohammad the last true prophet.

The Labaik party - who blockaded roads into Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, over the election law issue for three weeks in November - said it had no knowledge of the attacker.

"We have got nothing to do with him," Labaik spokesman Ejaz Ashrafi said on Monday. "We are unarmed. We are in an unarmed struggle. Those conspiring against Tehreek-e-Labaik will not succeed."

Labaik was born out of a protest movement supporting Mumtaz Qadri, a bodyguard of the governor of Punjab who gunned down his boss in 2011 over his call to relax Pakistan's draconian blasphemy laws.

Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the leader of the new party - which won about 8 percent of the vote in a recent by-election - has called Qadri a "hero" and campaign posters have declared "death to blasphemers".

A senior PML-N official, minister of state for interior affairs Talal Chaudhry, said on Monday police were investigating groups that may have influenced the attack.

"Such people, on an ideological level, are prepared by others," Chaudhry said.

(Additional reporting by Syed Raza Hasan in Karachi and Jibran Ahmed in Peshawar; writing by Saad Sayeed; editing by Kay Johnson and Andrew Roche)
 

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https://theweek.com/articles/771206/new-cold-war-unfolding-above-planet-earth-there-battles-space

A new cold war is unfolding above Planet Earth. Will there be battles in space?

The Week Staff
May 7, 2018

A new cold war is unfolding above Planet Earth. Will there be battles in space? Here's everything you need to know:

What's the conflict about?
China, Russia, and the U.S. are competing for military advantage in orbit. U.S. intelligence agencies warned in February that China and Russia are developing ballistic missiles and other weapons that could be used to reliably target American satellites "in the next few years." Both countries have already successfully tested space warfare technologies. In 2007, China used a missile to shoot down one of its own aging weather satellites orbiting 537 miles above the planet. Russia successfully conducted a test flight for an antisatellite missile in 2015. The U.S. has long possessed such capabilities. In 1985, an American fighter jet successfully launched a missile into a U.S.science satellite. "Space is no longer a peaceful domain," said Deborah Lee James, secretary of the Air Force under President Obama. "There is a real possibility that a conflict on Earth could bleed into space."

Why is that?
Space is strategically vital. About 1,700 active satellites currently orbit Earth — nearly half sent up by the U.S. — and they've become critical to the modern world's economy and daily activities. The Air Force's 33 Global Positioning System satellites provide timing signals used by Wall Street traders and cellphone networks, as well as powering navigation-based apps like Google Maps and Uber. Weather forecasts, video conferencing, instant credit-card authorization, banking connections, and cable television are all powered by satellites. The U.S. military relies heavily on communications and surveillance satellites for virtually all of its activities, from monitoring North Korean weapons tests to coordinating troops in the field. Satellites are constantly scanning Earth to detect strikes against the U.S., looking for the distinctive plumes of a missile launch. "Space is foundational to our way of war," says Gen. John W. Raymond, commander of Air Force Space Command. "And it's foundational to our way of life."

What would space war look like?
It could take several different forms. Programmers could hack into satellites in order to dismantle or commandeer them. Lasers stationed on the ground could also be used to "dazzle," or blind, satellite sensors, rendering them useless. In a more aggressive attack, countries could use brute force to take out rival satellites, either with ballistic missiles or by using "kamikaze" attack satellites to smash into targets. The Russians launched a satellite in May 2014 that appeared to be capable of offensive maneuvers, alarming U.S. intelligence.

How is the U.S. responding?
The military is taking steps to "harden" its satellites from attack. It is planning to launch redundant satellites to act as backups in case critical systems are destroyed, and developing smaller satellites that will be harder to target, as well as defensive satellites capable of detecting or even intercepting threats. Many of the details, of course, are highly classified. In March, President Trump called for the creation of a new branch of the military dedicated to space warfare. "Space is a war-fighting domain, just like the land, air, and sea," Trump said. "We have the Air Force, we'll have the Space Force."

Is Trump serious?
It's hard to say, but he's not the first to suggest it. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld called for the creation of a "Space Corps" in 2001, but the idea was put on the back burner after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks shifted the military's focus to fighting terrorism on Earth. Right now, the U.S. Air Force Space Command is responsible for roughly 90 percent of the American military operations in space, employing about 36,000 people around the world. But space force proponents argue that space is an afterthought within an institution built to fight battles on Earth. A new co-equal space force could legitimize space as a vital battleground, the thinking goes, the same way the creation of the U.S. Air Force in 1947 recognized the importance of air power. But the Pentagon reportedly is opposed to the idea of adding another bureaucracy.

What if a war breaks out?
The rules of space warfare are mostly unwritten. The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 bans countries from putting weapons of mass destruction in space, but there's no comprehensive agreement governing other kinds of space weapons or protecting civilian satellites. In 2008, the U.S. rejected a treaty submitted to the U.N. by Russia and China that would have banned weapons in space. When the European Union floated a similar proposal in 2014, it was embraced by the U.S., but China and Russia refused to sign on. The consequences of an all-out space war could be dire. In one scenario, the debris cloud created by obliterated spacecraft could set off a chain reaction that wipes out all of the satellites in orbit, ringing Earth with space junk and rendering space unusable for generations. "The challenges of war fighting in this domain are not really understood," says Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "We don't have any history to go on."

The first 'Space War'
In 1991, Operation Desert Storm proved the vital military importance of space. Coalition forces relied on the Air Force's nascent GPS network to cross virtually uncharted tracts of desert left undefended by Iraqi commanders, who believed that no mechanized weapons or troops could cross this hostile terrain. The use of GPS navigation enabled U.S. and allied troops to outflank Saddam Hussein's military in a sweeping maneuver that became known as the "left hook," paving the way for the swift liberation of Kuwait in a ground war lasting roughly 100 hours. Infrared warning satellites also rendered the Iraqi army's Soviet-era Scud missiles virtually useless by allowing coalition troops to accurately predict where they would they land. Meanwhile, coalition artillery used GPS to devastating effect while bombarding Iraqi positions. "It really was the first time that we took strategic space information and integrated it into a theater of operations," Gen. John W. Raymond, commander of Air Force Space Command, told Popular Mechanics. "There's nothing we do today, there's not a sailor, soldier, or Marine that operates in their domain that isn't using space capabilities to conduct their mission."
 

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...militia-chief-aims-to-lead-iraq-idUSKBN1I91NL

World News May 8, 2018 / 6:03 AM / Updated 22 minutes ago

Iranian-backed Shi'ite militia chief aims to lead Iraq

Maher Chmaytelli
7 Min Read

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - If Hadi al-Amiri triumphs in Iraq’s election on Saturday it would be a crowning achievement for the dissident turned Shi’ite militia leader who spent more than two decades fighting Saddam Hussein from exile in Iran.

Leader of the Badr Organization that was the backbone of the volunteer forces fighting Islamic State, Amiri hopes to capitalize on his success on the battlefield in what is expected to be a tight three-way race for the premiership.

Victory for Amiri would be a win for Iran as the 63-year-old militia leader has forged close ties with Iraq’s Shi’ite neighbor - but he would also have to balance Tehran’s interests in Iraq with Washington’s often competing goals.

The winner of the election will face the daunting task of rebuilding Iraq after the devastating three-year war against the ultra-hardline Sunni militants, as well as fighting the corruption that consumes much of the OPEC member’s oil revenue.

Like the other frontrunners, incumbent Haider al-Abadi and former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, Amiri has pledged to restore state institutions and provide badly needed health and education services.

Amiri’s own record in government, a four-year stint as transport minister, was undistinguished.

Instead, Amiri aims to exploit his leading role in the Popular Mobilization Forces, the mainly Shi’ite, Iranian-backed militias that rallied to confront the self-declared Islamic State caliphate in Iraq four years ago.

“His lucky star rose in 2014. Amiri the unconvincing minister vanished and the guerrilla commander re-emerged when the Shi’ites of Iraq needed him most,” said a Shi’ite scholar and expert in former Shi’ite opposition movements.

OLD FRIENDS
Amiri’s Iranian connections forged during long years in exile, particularly his ties with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were central to his rise to prominence, first challenging and finally helping defeat IS.

The Guards trained and armed the Popular Mobilization forces set up in response to a fatwa from Iraq’s top Shi’ite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

As leader of the Badr Organization, Amiri, a Farsi speaker, was often seen discussing offensives in Iraq with the Guards’ commander of foreign operations, Qassem Soleimani.

The numerous photos from the battlefront of Amiri with Soleimani in military fatigues, embracing and looking euphoric after evicting IS fighters, have personalized an old friendship.

Portraits of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are also a fixture in Badr offices, a reminder of the days when the group was the armed wing of Iraq’s Shi’ite opposition, based in Iran.

Born in the mixed Sunni-Shi’ite province of Diyala east of Baghdad, Amiri fled to Iran in his 20s after studying economics in Baghdad. Sentenced to death by Saddam, Amiri made Iran his second home for more than two decades.

Then, like Maliki and Abadi, he returned from exile after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion which overthrew Saddam.

Amiri embedded Badr members in key security positions purged of Saddam’s Baath Party officers but showed his pragmatic streak by avoiding clashes with U.S. forces during their eight-year occupation.

Opponents accuse his Badr organization of assassinations and widespread abuses against Sunnis detained in secret prisons run by the group following the U.S.-led invasion.

Kareem Nuri, Amiri’s media adviser and a candidate on his list, denied the accusations saying they were designed to “distort the reputation of Badr”.

BALANCING ACT
Despite his close ties with Iran, Amiri has kept communication open lines with American diplomats in Baghdad, which would be a help were he to win given the continued military and economic importance of the United States to Iraq.

The United States retrained and assisted Iraqi government forces led by Abadi. It has provided billions of dollars in aid to the cash-strapped government and has actively encouraged Gulf and other foreign investors to help rebuild the country.

U.S.-led coalition forces also operated in the same area as tens of thousands of Shi’ite militiamen during the war against Islamic State which culminated last year with the capture of Mosul. Despite the anti-American rhetoric of several militia leaders - other than Amiri - there were no major incidents.

“The Americans are able to work with Amiri and there is no reason to believe he will take Iraq to Iran unless he is forced to choose between the two," said one Western diplomat.

That difficult choice could fall on Iraq’s next prime minister, however, if U.S. President Donald Trump decides to reimpose sanctions on Iran lifted after a 2015 deal restraining its nuclear program.

Amiri says under his leadership Iraq would seek relations with all neighbors and not be dependent on Iran.

“Our hearts are open and hands are stretched, we want Iraq to be the master of the region, the center around which others will revolve. Iraq’s stature cannot allow it to be a tail for this country or that country,” he said.

‘TIME HAS COME’
His opponents are skeptical, saying his historic loyalty to Tehran means his actions will be dictated by Iranian interests.

They also question the image he is projecting of an outsider and military commander not involved in the political mismanagement, corruption and nepotism plaguing the country.

Critics point to his performance as transport minister from 2010 to 2014, including an incident in 2014 when he forced a passenger plane flying to Iraq to turn back in mid-air to collect his son who had missed the departure from Beirut.

Iraq’s road, railroads and airports didn’t improve under his watch, even though the government earned tens of billions of dollars from extra oil when crude was above $100 a barrel.

Amiri’s campaign has sought to position him above the country’s sectarian divisions and political failings, stressing his role in the Popular Mobilization forces, which some Sunni fighters joined too.

“I am a Popular Mobilization commander and it is normal that I’m running on (Amiri’s) list,” said Yazan al-Jubouri, a Sunni standing for parliament in Salahuddin province north of Baghdad.

The logo of Amiri’s “Fateh”, or Conquest, list of candidates is a golden lion’s head on a green background, to project an image of strength and security as well as his Islamic ideology.

His slogan is simple: “Iraq’s time has come.”

Reporting by Maher Chmaytelli; editing by Dominic Evans and David Clarke
 

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http://smallwarsjournal.com/index.p...-21st-century-profile-transnational-organized

Evolved Capabilities in Mexican Drug Trafficking: A 21st Century Profile of Transnational Organized Crime

Charles E. Pickard
| Tue, 05/08/2018 - 12:26am |


The combined illicit revenue collected by the seven major Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs) based in Mexico is staggering. By most estimates, it could be as much as $30 billion per year, a figure which exceeds the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of nations like Iceland, El Salvador, and Uganda.[1] With such ample financing at their disposal, the Mexican DTOs can devote substantial funding to ensuring the success of their trafficking operations. The key mechanisms utilized to achieve this goal can be grouped into the categories of concealed transportation, violence, and bribery. Through methods of concealed transport via land, sea, and air routes, traffickers are often successful in bypassing the scrutiny of law enforcement on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. Violence is used extensively by the DTOs (albeit primarily in Mexico) to protect their operations against the encroachment of rival organizations, from the interference of government authorities, and from media scrutiny. Bribery is also used extensively to pay off corrupt government officials in both Mexico and the United States,[2] establishing a clientelistic relationship that defines the Mexican DTOs as organized criminal groups and not terrorist organizations,[3] despite their occasional characterization to the contrary. In carrying out their operations, the Mexican DTOs have evolved in three key areas: communications, the use of explosives, and aerial capabilities. The following paragraphs will briefly highlight aspects of the evolution of these advancements in order to demonstrate that nations like the United States and Mexico face significant challenges and considerable threat from transnational criminal organizations like Mexican DTOs because they are well-funded, dynamic, and quick to leverage prevailing technological advancements.



Communications play a key role in the operations of Mexican DTOs, whether they are smuggling loads of narcotics or coordinating violent attacks against rival groups, Mexican federal authorities, or journalists who dare to cover them. Gone are the days in which DTOs in Mexico relied solely on simple VHF radios for operational communications. Starting in 2004, Los Zetas, American-trained Mexican military commandos (then the enforcement arm for the Gulf Cartel DTO and later a DTO in their own right), began employing the skillset of a Texas radio store owner to build advanced communications infrastructure in Matamoros, Mexico, allowing the Gulf Cartel to monitor rivals, Mexican authorities, and the U.S. Border Patrol.[4] In 2006, Los Zetas began expanding their radio infrastructure along the Texas-Mexico border, then south to Guatemala, before spreading into the Mexican interior to cover the whole of the organization’s territory.[5] In line with their military roots, their communications network featured resilient networks of camouflaged, tower-based repeaters that could run on solar power, regional command and control centers, and software-controlled radio systems with encryption features.[6] Between 2008 and 2012, as Los Zetas expanded their network and worked to replace radio infrastructure that had been taken offline by Mexican authorities, dozens of communications engineers and specialists began to disappear, suspected to have been kidnapped and enslaved to maintain and improve Los Zetas’ communications network.[7] It can also be surmised that since DTO smuggling routes have long penetrated deep into American territory (smugglers on foot have been apprehended nearly eighty miles north of the international border in Arizona),[8] it is also likely that the DTOs have advanced communications capabilities and infrastructure established inside the United States. This is supported by the fact that teams of DTO scouts have been discovered in camouflaged military-like observation posts on top of Arizona mountain peaks, equipped with radios and cell phones that can be charged with solar power and used to guide smugglers away from approaching law enforcement in the valleys below.[9] There is little doubt that as communications technologies continue to improve and incorporate ever-increasing privacy features – for example, internet-based chat program applications that utilize end-to-end encryption, like WhatsApp, Telegram, and Signal, are already being used by illicit actors to effectively communicate beyond the reach of major government security services[10] – Mexican DTOs will continue to utilize cutting-edge communications technologies in networks that will be difficult for law enforcement to exploit on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border.



The 2011 White House Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime states that the Mexican DTOs “are escalating their violence to consolidate their market share within the Western Hemisphere, protect their operations in Mexico, and expand their reach into the United States.”[11] While most DTO-related violence in Mexico thus far has involved firearms, explosives have also played a notable role in the arsenal of DTOs, particularly in their efforts to match firepower against Mexican military forces that were deployed against them in the years following the election of President Felipe Calderón. For example, in 2009, a previously secret U.S. government cable from the U.S. Consulate in Monterrey (now open source via WikiLeaks) notes an escalation in the Mexican DTO use of U.S. and Korean-made military hand grenades against civilians, military, law enforcement, media, and the U.S. Consulate in Monterrey.[12] Beginning in 2008, DTOs also began using explosives to greater effect in vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). While their first use of VBIEDs has been attributed to three incidents in the 1990s (each of them are thought to have been part of a campaign directed against the Sinaloa Cartel by their rivals in the Tijuana Cartel),[13] a 2013 study identifying twenty-one VBIED deployments by DTOs in Mexico between 2008 and 2012 demonstrates that their recent use has been both more extensive and broadened against non-DTO targets.[14] Notable amongst these was a July 15, 2010 La Línea (enforcement arm of the Juarez DTO) VBIED, which successfully targeted first responders in the heart of Juarez, only a few miles from El Paso, Texas. The device, which utilized a main charge composed of 22 pounds of Tovex (a water-gel explosive common in mining and industry in Mexico), was notably initiated via a cell-phone, and was intended to draw U.S. attention to alleged collusion between the Mexican government and La Línea’s rivals in the Sinaloa Cartel.[15] The format of the attack and initiating system used in the bomb indicated that Mexican DTOs had graduated to a much more advanced level of bomb building and deployment – akin to insurgent devices used in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Colombia – leading to suspicions that insurgent advisors from Colombia may have been utilized to advance La Línea’s IED capabilities.[16] The attack was also a clear indication that the enforcement arm of a DTO was prepared to use terrorist-style tactics to try to address grievances at an international political level. Both of these indications fall in line with what Hilary Matfess and Michael Miklaucic discuss as the growing convergence of illicit networks across international borders,[17] represented both in the potential interactivity that took place between groups and in the hybridization of Mexican DTO tactics and intentions. The discovery of a Redeye shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile in DTO custody on April 16, 2016, in Nuevo Casas Grandes, Chihuahua,[18] provides additional evidence that the DTOs will continue to innovate ways to leverage weapons involving explosives to their advantage.

In the realm of concealed transport, Mexican DTOs have proven skilled in many formats. The number of smugglers caught annually in the vicinity of the U.S.-Mexico border is indicative that pedestrian and vehicle-borne methods remain effective. The discovery of 224 cross-border tunnels between 1990 and 2016 demonstrates that subterranean options remain popular.[19]



Maritime-based incursions also continue to be utilized.[20] Commercial trucking represents the most utilized and effective mode of DTO smuggling, as the large volume of daily cross-border truck traffic makes careful scrutiny of every vehicle virtually impossible, even with more recent advancements in X-ray screening.[21] Aerial methods also represent a DTO smuggling mode that the U.S. government has historically found difficult and costly to counter. Beginning in 1978, the U.S. Air Force initiated the Tethered Aerostat Radar System (TARS) program to identify illicit incursions from light aircraft flying at low altitudes across the southern border.[22] Smugglers working for the Mexican DTOs responded by pivoting to the use of ultralight aircraft. While increased U.S. Customs aircraft patrols in the 1990s appear to have been effective in suppressing some ultralight incursions into U.S. airspace, U.S. Customs & Border Protection officials believe ultralights regained popularity in the late 2000s.[23] As the number of detected ultralight incursions doubled between fiscal years 2009 and 2011, the U.S. government allocated $100 million for enhanced ultralight detection capabilities.[24] Still, 534 suspected ultralight incursions were detected in the subsequent five year period,[25] with no data available on how many may ultralights may go undetected.



More recently, advancements in unmanned aerial systems (UAS), or ‘drones’ have not gone unnoticed by DTO smugglers. UAS are teeming with potential to provide illicit organizations with aerial surveillance, transportation, and offensive weapons capabilities. As UAS have gained popularity in the licit consumer market in the last few years, resulting decreases in cost and improvements in their ease of use has made them increasingly accessible to illicit organizations. Mexican DTOs began utilizing UAS delivery systems as early as 2010,[26] and are likely to increase their use in various roles as rapid advancements in UAS technology make them increasingly capable (longer battery life, increased range and payload capabilities) and more affordable. For example, in one four-day period, in November, 2017, U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) agents spotted – at their own admission, by chance – thirteen UAS suspected to be carrying drugs over a small stretch of the international border south of San Diego.[27] As of January 2018, USBP agents lacked a UAS response protocol, much less methods and equipment to detect and interdict them.[28] In addition to transporting illicit cargo, UAS will undoubtedly allow Mexican DTO’s to conduct reconnaissance and counter-surveillance, allowing the adjustment of smuggling routes or operational tactics and timings in real-time.

UAS also provide Mexican DTOs the capability to deploy offensive weapons like firearms and improvised explosive devices. Hobbyists began proving as early as 2012, that firearms can be effectively mounted and accurately fired from consumer-grade UAS platforms.[29] More recently, in October 2017, four men associated to a Mexican DTO were arrested by Mexican Federal Police in Valtierrilla, Guanajunto, with a consumer-grade quad-copter UAS that had been rigged with an IED capable of being initiated by remote control (RCIED).[30] The complete weapon was estimated to have cost less than $300, including IED construction costs.[31] In recent years, Islamic State (IS) terrorists have demonstrated considerable proficiency in using UAS to deploy air-dropped IEDs on military targets in Iraq and Syria.[32] While the aforementioned UAS-based RCIED discovered in Mexico appears to be much more crude in design than some which have been deployed recently by IS in Iraq and Syria,[33] the Mexican DTOs’ ample funding and propensity to rapidly acquire technological expertise (e.g. in communications technology) means that UAS outfitted with deadlier and more precise IEDs could be in the arsenal of Mexican DTOs in the near future, if they are not there already.



The previous paragraphs only scratch the surface of the operational capabilities of the seven major DTOs based in Mexico. Yet the brief examples provided here are instructive in the evolution and adaptability of three key elements that have been central to Mexican DTO operations. Communications clearly play a vital role in DTO operations and have evolved in the last three decades from simple VHF radios, to cellular smart phones, and digital, encrypted, software-controlled radios that are operated on networks of DTO-established radio infrastructure. DTO use of explosives has also evolved from greater use of military grenades, to advanced VBIED capabilities that blur the lines between transnational organized crime and terrorism. Finally, DTO use of aerial smuggling platforms have pivoted in response to U.S. government countermeasures, evolving from the use of light aircraft, to ultralight aircraft, and now include UAS, which hold tremendous potential for smuggling illicit goods in virtually any context and environment, especially as the capabilities of UAS platforms continually increase while their costs simultaneously fall. Aside from transportation of illicit goods, UAS require no special modifications to serve as ideal surveillance platforms to allow DTO smugglers to guide smuggling operations and avoid law enforcement.



Perhaps the most striking of all the Mexican DTO elements discussed here is the weaponization of UAS with IEDs. While the UAS-borne IED recovered from DTO suspects in Valtierrilla in October 2017 was relatively crude, IS terrorists in Iraq and Syria have demonstrated that considerable sophistication and targeting accuracy in IEDs dropped from UAS are not difficult to attain. Mexican DTOs will soon achieve equivalent capabilities if they have not done so already. This capability to accurately deploy IEDs from altitudes where UAS are unlikely to be detected or interdicted by exposed targets on the ground represents a revolutionary leap forward in the execution of offensive operations; one that could be used with devastating effect by Mexican DTOs – or any other actor or organization – to target rivals, military, law enforcement, media, government officials, or civilians who are targeted for assassination. Together, these examples of advancements in communications, explosives, and aerial/UAS capabilities provide clear evidence that transnational criminal organizations like the Mexican DTOs represent a formidable and ongoing threat to the national security of nations like Mexico and the United States.



The author wishes to acknowledge Michael L. Burgoyne for his encouragement and assistance in editing and preparing this paper.



The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the City of Tucson, the Tucson Police Department, or the State of Arizona.



End Notes


[1] Celina B. Realuyo, “"Following the Money Trail" to Combat Terrorism, Crime, and Corruption in the Americas” (Washington D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, August 2017), 6;

International Monetary Fund, "World Economic Outlook (October 2017): Gross Domestic Product (GDP)," (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, October 2017), http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/

NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD.

[2] June S. Beittel, Mexico: Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking Organizations, (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Congressional Research Service, June 22, 2015), 7, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41576.pdf.

[3] Juan Carlos Garzón, Mafia & Co.: The Criminal Networks in Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2008), 29.

[4] Damon Tabor, “Radio Tecnico: How The Zetas Cartel Took Over Mexico With Walkie-Talkies: Inside the communications infrastructure of the ultraviolent syndicate,” Popular Science, March 25, 2014, https://www.popsci.com/article/tech...-zetas-cartel-took-over-mexico-walkie-talkies.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Tabor, 2014; Moisés Naim, Illicit: How smugglers, traffickers, and copycats are hijacking the global economy (New York: Anchor Books, 2006), 102.

[7] Paris Martinez, “Esclavos del narco: Profesionistas forzados,” Animal Politico, October 30, 2012, https://www.animalpolitico.com/2012/10/esclavos-del-narco-los-esclavos-especializados/; Robert Beckhusen, “Mexican cartels enslave engineers to build radio network,” Wired, November 1, 2012, https://www.wired.com/

2012/11/zeta-radio/.

[8] Veronica M. Cruz, “Twelve men suspected of drug smuggling arrested in Pinal County,” Arizona Daily Star, November 25, 2013, http://tucson.com/news/blogs/police...cle_5dc23c20-5611-11e3-b549-0019bb2963f4.html.

[9] Morgan Loew, Gilbert Zermeno, and Edward Ayala, “Drug cartel scouts living in mountains south of Phoenix,” KPHO News (CBS 5 Phoenix), February 5, 2016, http://www.azfamily.com/story/31154548/drug-cartel-scouts-living-in-mountain-ranges-south-of-phoenix.

[10] Mark Hosenball, “British minister asks Silicon Valley to do more to counter militants,” Reuters, July 31, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...to-do-more-to-counter-militants-idUSKBN1AG165.

[11] U.S. Office of the President of the United States, Strategy To Combat Transnational Organized Crime: Addressing Converging Threats to National Security (Washington, D.C.: July 2011), 6.

12 Digital National Security Archive, “Mexico: Tracking Narco-Grenades” (Government document released by WikiLeaks), March 3, 2009, https://search-proquest-com.ezproxy3.library.arizona.edu/docview/1679099170?accountid=8360.

[13] Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Cartel Car Bombings in Mexico” (Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 2013), 9-13, https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pdffiles/PUB1166.pdf.

[14] Ibid, 18-19.

[15] William Booth, “Ciudad Juarez car bomb shows new sophistication in Mexican drug cartels' tactics,” The Washington Post, July 22, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/21/

AR2010072106200.html.

[16] Ibid.

[17] Hilary Matfess and Michael Miklaucic, “Introduction: World Order or Disorder?” in Beyond Convergence: World Without Order (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University, Center for Complex Operations, 2016), ix-x.

[18] Robert J. Bunker, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #28: Redeye MANPADS Seized from La Linea in Nuevo Casas Grandes, Chihuahua,” Small Wars Journal, April 25, 2016, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...-seized-from-la-linea-in-nuevo-casas-grandes-.

[19] Ron Nixon, “By Land, Sea or Catapult: How Smugglers Get Drugs Across the Border,” The New York Times (New York), July 25, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/us/drugs-border-wall.html.

[20] U.S. Government Accountability Office, Border Security: Additional Actions Could Strengthen

DHS Efforts to Address Subterranean, Aerial, and Maritime Smuggling, GAO-17-474 (Washington, D.C.: May 2017), 16-17, https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684408.pdf.

[21] Tony Payan, The Three U.S.-Mexico Border Wars: Drugs, Immigration, and Homeland Security (Westport, Connecticut; London: Praeger Security International, 2006), 34.

[22] Dave Long, “CPB’s Eyes in the Sky,” U.S. Customs and Border Protection, accessed March 30, 2018, https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/frontline-november-aerostats.

[23] Brady McCombs, “Smuggling bill targets ultralights,” Arizona Daily Star, May 16, 2010, http://tucson.com/

news/local/border/smuggling-bill-targets-ultralights/article_4e6f8c58-edef-5c01-8954-e582c9d9789a.html.

[24] Robert Beckhusen, “Feds drop $100 million to spot flying, homebrew cocaine mules,” Wired, August 20, 2012, https://www.wired.com/2012/08/ultralight/.

[25] U.S. Government Accountability Office, Border Security: Additional Actions Could Strengthen

DHS Efforts to Address Subterranean, Aerial, and Maritime Smuggling, GAO-17-474 (Washington, D.C.: May 2017), 14, https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/684408.pdf.

[26] Robert J. Bunker, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #21: Cartel Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs),” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2014, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-tactical-note-21.

[27] Stephen Dinan, “13 drones in four days: How drug smugglers are using technology to beat Border Patrol,” The Washington Times, January 2, 2018, https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/2/drones-fly-drugs-us-no-border-patrol-detection-tec/.

[28] Ibid.

[29] Kyle Myers (FPSRussia), “Prototype Quadrotor with Machine Gun!” YouTube video, 5:11, April 23, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNPJMk2fgJU.

[30] Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Mexican Cartel Tactical Note #35: Weaponized Drone/UAV/UAS Seized in Valtierrilla, Guanajuato with Remote Detonation IED (‘Papa Bomba’) Payload,” Small Wars Journal, October 23, 2017, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/mexican-cartel-tactical-note-35.

[31] Bunker and Sullivan, 2017.

[32] Charlie D’Agata, “ISIS drones pose another danger as Iraqi troops push for Western Mosul,” CBS News, February 20, 2017, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/isis-d...nger-as-iraqi-troops-push-for-western-mosul/; Ben Watson, “The Drones of ISIS,” Defense One, January 12, 2017, http://www.defenseone.com/

technology/2017/01/drones-isis/134542/.

[33] Ibid.

Categories: El Centro

About the Author(s)
Charles E. Pickard is a career law enforcement officer with over a decade of experience as a full-time public safety bomb technician. He currently serves as a Police Hazardous Devices Technician with the Tucson Police Department Explosives and Hazardous Devices Detail. He is an Arizona Peace Officers Standards and Training Board (AZPOST) certified general instructor and an adjunct instructor for hazardous materials programs with the State of Arizona Division of Emergency and Military Affairs (DEMA). He regularly teaches to first responders throughout the State of Arizona in subjects relating to explosives, hazardous materials, and terrorism. He holds a Bachelor of General Studies with emphasis in American history, government, politics, and national security, and a certificate in Mid-East Studies from the University of Arizona. He is currently pursuing a Master of Arts in International Security Studies, also at the University of Arizona.
 

Housecarl

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https://www.military.com/daily-news...t-horrible-one-sided-nuclear-accord-iran.html

US Troops, Carrier Brace for Possible Fallout from Scrapped Iran Deal

Military.com 8 May 2018
By Richard Sisk

A coalition commander expressed confidence Tuesday that U.S. and partnered forces in the Mideast are prepared for any provocations stemming from President Donald Trump's scrapping of the Iran nuclear deal.

The estimated 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria and 5,000 in Iraq have already been bolstered by the arrival in the eastern Mediterranean of the aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman, which began airstrikes May 3 against Islamic State targets in Syria.

In a video briefing from Baghdad to the Pentagon on Tuesday, British Army Maj. Gen. Felix Gedney said, "We've seen no change" in the dispositions of Syrian regime forces, or Iranian and Russian proxies, in the lead-up to Trump's announcement, but "we closely monitor all threats to our forces."

"We retain our right to self-defense," he said, and "we're confident that we'll retain the security of our forces operating in Iraq and Syria" against ISIS.

Gedney, deputy commander of strategy and support for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, spoke hours before Trump announced at the White House that the U.S. was withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had been aimed primarily at reining in Iran's nuclear programs.

"This was a horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made," the president said. "It didn't bring calm, it didn't bring peace, and it never will."

Trump said it was impossible for the U.S. and its allies to prevent Iran from eventually developing nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them "under the decaying and rotten structure of the current deal. The Iran deal is defective at its core."

Just before Trump spoke, French President Emmanuel Macron warned of upheaval in the region that could lead to war.

"We would open the Pandora's box. There could be war," Macron told German weekly magazine Der Spiegel, adding that "I don't think that Donald Trump wants war."

In its deterrent role, the Truman and its strike group, consisting of the guided-missile cruiser Normandy and the guided-missile destroyers Arleigh Burke, Bulkeley, Forrest Sherman and Farragut, are expected to be joined later in the deployment by the guided missile destroyers Jason Dunham and The Sullivans, which were already in the region.

From its current station in the eastern Mediterranean, the carrier is serving two combatant commands. Its warplanes are striking from the 6th Fleet's area of operations and hitting targets in the area of operations of the 5th Fleet, which is headquartered in Bahrain, the Navy said in a statement.

It is unclear whether the Truman and its strike group will move later in the deployment closer to Iran in the 5th Fleet's area of operations.

Rear Adm. Gene Black, commander of the Truman's strike group, said the carrier is focused on combating ISIS but is prepared for other missions.

"We will continue to provide commanders the ability to respond and support national security priorities, and we remain prepared to deliver precision strike capabilities, as directed," Black said in a Navy release.

At a White House briefing after Trump spoke, National Security Adviser John Bolton said that lifting sanctions against Iran under the 2015 JCPOA helped "fuel the activity that Iran is undertaking now in Syria, its support for terrorist groups all around the region and the world like Hezbollah and Hamas."

"To really deal with this threat and try to bring peace and stability to the Middle East, and to relieve the world of the nuclear threat, you have to go after the whole thing," Bolton said. "This is what [Trump] talked about with the European leaders and what we're going to try to pursue."

One of the immediate concerns for the U.S. is that the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militias in Lebanon might respond by launching rockets into Israel.

To guard against the threat, the State Department issued a security warning Tuesday to American citizens in Israel to "consider carefully" their safety before traveling to the Golan Heights bordering Syria "until the situation stabilizes."

Israel also opened up bomb shelters on the Golan Heights after the Israeli Defense Forces reported detecting "irregular activity of Iranian forces in Syria."

The reaction in Congress to Trump's announcement broke down along partisan lines, with Republicans generally supporting the president and Democrats lining up against him.

However, Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had misgivings about the swiftness of Trump's action.

"I have no doubt that the JCPOA was flawed and that for years Iran has been deceptive about its nuclear and other programs," Thornberry said, but "my preference would have been to give our European allies a few more months to strengthen the deal."

The U.S. has no choice now but to "further enhance our own military capabilities" and "strengthen our alliances," he said.

Former President Barack Obama said that withdrawing from the deal, which was the major foreign policy achievement of his administration, was "a serious mistake."

"Without the JCPOA, the United States could eventually be left with a losing choice between a nuclear-armed Iran or another war in the Middle East," Obama said in a statement.

-- Richard Sisk can be reached at Richard.Sisk@Military.com.
 

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World News May 9, 2018 / 1:39 AM / Updated 2 hours ago

Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen fire missiles at Saudi capital

Sarah Dadouch, Noah Browning
3 Min Read

RIYADH/DUBAI (Reuters) - Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement said it fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at the Saudi capital on Wednesday - an attack Saudi authorities said they intercepted in the skies over the city.

The assault comes a day after Saudi Arabia’s top ally the United States pulled out of an international deal with Iran over its disputed nuclear program and could signal an uptick in tensions between regional rivals Riyadh and Tehran.

The Houthis said the missiles were launched at economic targets in Riyadh, the group’s al-Masirah TV reported. At least four blasts were heard in the city center, but there were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

The Houthis have fired a series of missiles into neighboring Saudi Arabia in recent months, part of a three-year-old conflict in Yemen widely seen as a proxy battle between the Saudis and Iran.

A spokesman for the Houthi-aligned military Colonel Aziz Rashed told al-Masirah TV channel that the attack on the capital and another area marked “a new phase” and was revenge for Saudi air strikes on Yemen.

“There will be more salvos until this enemy is deterred, understands the meaning of the Yemeni threat and ceases its crimes,” Rashed said.

He did not mention U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision, hours earlier, to pull out of the international nuclear accord with Iran. But there have been fears the U.S. pull-out could exacerbate the conflict in Yemen and other regional flashpoints.

“HOSTILE ACTION”
Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies queued up on Wednesday to praise Trump’s decision, as did Yemen’s government, which has been forced into exile by Houthi advances in their country.

The Yemeni government said the U.S. withdrawal as a necessary step to stop Iran’s “destabilizing and dangerous” behavior. “The Iranian regime has exploited the benefits of the nuclear agreement to export violence and terrorism to its neighbors,” it said in a statement.

Saudi state media said separately that air defense forces had intercepted a missile launched at the southern city of Jizan, in an attack also claimed by the Houthis.

“This hostile action by the Houthi militia backed by Iran proves the continued involvement of the Iranian regime,” coalition spokesman Colonel Turki al-Malki was quoted as saying by state news agency SPA.

Iran, he added, aimed “to threaten the security of Saudi Arabia as well as regional and international security”.

A Saudi-led military coalition intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015 to try and push back the Houthis after they ousted the internationally recognized government.

Iran and the Houthis have regularly dismissed Saudi accusations that Tehran is arming the group.

Reporting by Sarah Dadouch and Marwa Rashad; Editing by Catherine Evans and Andrew Heavens
 

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World News May 8, 2018 / 9:11 AM / Updated 17 hours ago

More than a million Turks say 'Enough' to Erdogan on social media

Reuters Staff
4 Min Read

ANKARA (Reuters) - More than a million Turks piled onto social media to call time on President Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday, making the word “Tamam” (“Enough”) a trending topic worldwide after he promised to step down if the people wanted it.

“If one day our nation says ‘enough’, then we will step aside,” he said in a speech in parliament.

The most popular - and divisive - politician in recent Turkish history, Erdogan has ruled for 15 years, overseeing a period of sharp economic growth and a widespread crackdown against his opponents. Last month he declared snap elections for June 24, bringing the polls forward by more than a year.

Soon after the speech, the #Tamam hashtag swept across Turkish-language Twitter, then became a global trending topic.

“We want democracy so we say #enough to Erdogan. Please leave your seat, you did insane things to our country and people. Enough,” said one user.

“You will not step aside quietly. You will give account for the things you did. Enough!” said another.

Erdogan’s rivals in the presidential polls also jumped in, with the “Tamam” tweets from three of his main opponents together garnering more than 10,000 retweets.

“Time is up. Enough!” tweeted Muharrem Ince, the candidate of the main opposition CHP.

Social media has become the primary platform for opposition against the government in Turkey, where traditional media is saturated with coverage of Erdogan and his ministers. Erdogan’s speeches, usually two or three a day, are all broadcast live on major channels, while opposition parties get little to no coverage.

“VERY STRANGE”
The “Tamam” tweets also provided a rare moment of opposition unity with all major parties, including the pro-Kurdish opposition uniting behind the hashtag. Pro-Kurdish politicians and Turkish nationalists rarely find common ground.

“Enough: It’s very strange that Erdogan has offered the opposition a uniting slogan,” tweeted journalist Rusen Cakir.

The government, however, dismissed the social media wave, which had accumulated close to 1.5 million posts by Tuesday night, saying the posts were sent by online bots associated with Kurdish PKK militants and Fethullah Gulen, the U.S.-based Muslim cleric blamed by Ankara for a 2016 failed coup attempt.

“Most are being sent from countries where the FETO and PKK are active. Most are bot accounts. We can also understand Greece, but what about those inside (Turkey),” said Mahir Unal, spokesman for Erdogan’s ruling AK Party.

FETO is an acronym for Gulen’s network of supporters.

“The keyboard heroes who don’t know what the ballot boxes mean, we will see each other on the night of June 24,” Unal wrote on Twitter.

Several people also took to the streets across Istanbul, some spelling out “TAMAM” with candles on pavements and roads. In the Kadikoy district, 10 demonstrators were detained, but later released after questioning, local media said.

Rights groups and Turkey’s Western allies have criticized Ankara for its deteriorating record on civil rights and have voiced concerns that the NATO member is sliding further into authoritarianism under Erdogan.

The government rejects such criticism and says its security measures are necessary due to the threats it faces.

After the June election, Turkey will switch to a powerful, executive presidential system that was narrowly approved in a referendum last year.

Editing by David Dolan and Gareth Jones
 

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Attackers launch coordinated strikes in Afghan capital with bombs, bullets

By Qadir Sediqi, and Abdul Aziz Ibrahimi, Reuters
3 hrs ago

Gunmen set off at least three explosions in the Afghan capital, Kabul, on Wednesday and then battled security forces from buildings they occupied in the latest in a spate of violence to rock the city.

Six wounded were brought into the trauma hospital run by Italian medical aid group Emergency, of whom one was dead on arrival. Health ministry spokesman Wahidullah Majroh said the casualty toll was likely to rise once security forces were able to get a clearer picture of the attack.

As police cordoned off part of the city's main commercial area, an official from a branch of Afghanistan International Bank reached by telephone said customers were sheltering in the bank premises as gunfire continued in the street outside.

"We can hear the gun shots and we are waiting inside the bank's safe room until the clashes end," he said.

Afghanistan's Western-backed government is fighting an intensifying war with both the Taliban and the Islamic State that has turned much of Kabul into a high security zone of concrete blast walls and razor wire.

But despite repeated government pledges to tighten security, hundreds of people have been killed and wounded in attacks in the city since the beginning of the year and authorities have appeared powerless to stop the bloodshed.

Islamic State claimed responsibility of one of the three blasts on its Amaq new agency but many officials doubt the group, which has its stronghold in a remote eastern border region of Nangarhar province, has the capacity to mount such complex attacks.

A senior Afghan security official said intelligence services believe the Haqqani network, a militant group affiliated to the Taliban which has a long record of urban attacks, was the real organizer of the attack.

ELECTION PREPARATIONS A TARGET
The initial blast on Wednesday hit a police station in western Kabul's Dasht-e-Barchi district, at around midday, said police spokesman Hashmat Stanekzai.

Minutes later, two back-to-back explosions went off in Shar-e Naw, the city's main business district, near the office of a travel agency that processes visa applications for India.

Najib Danish, spokesman for interior ministry, said gunmen had followed the blasts and fought intense gunbattles with security forces from nearby buildings.

A senior official at the Indian embassy confirmed that one blast took place outside a travel company's office and many security guards were injured.

The Afghan capital has seen an increase in bombings and other attacks against the security forces and civilians since the Taliban announced the beginning of their spring offensive on April 25.

With preparations for elections now underway across much of the country, more attacks are expected.

Fighting traditionally picks up in Afghanistan as warmer weather melts snow in mountain passes, allowing insurgents to move around more easily and the Taliban have put security forces under heavy pressure in many areas of the country.

Wednesday's attack comes just over a week after twin blasts in Kabul killed 26 people including nine journalists on April 30.

(Writing by Rupam Jain; Editing by Robert Birsel)
 

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In Drive for Tech Independence, Xi Doubles Down on Civil-Military Fusion

Publication: China Brief Volume: 18 Issue: 8
By: Lorand Laskai
May 9, 2018 07:00 AM Age: 1 day

Amid growing tensions with the United States over technology and trade, China is elevating civil-military fusion (¾üÃñÈÚºÏ) to the center of the country¡¯s cybersecurity and informatization agenda (New America, April 30). ¡°We must grasp the historical opportunity of the current information technology transformation and new transformation of military affairs [and] deeply understand the immanent relationships of productivity and fighting capability, the market and the battlefield,¡± Xi stated during an important speech at the Cybersecurity and Informatization Work Conference last month. Civil-military fusion (CMF) in cybersecurity and informatization, Xi said, ¡°is a focus area and an area for advancement.¡± It is also the area within CMF with ¡°the most dynamism and potential.¡±

After years of false-starts and empty sloganeering, China¡¯s leadership appears to be getting serious about fusing the development of the hi-tech economy and military. The inclusion of CMF in an important speech on ICT work signals that CMF will be central to China¡¯s strategy of building a ¡®cyber superpower¡¯(ÍøÂçÇ¿¹ú) in a contested technological landscape. While Xi¡®s speech did not directly address U.S. Section 301 trade action against China or the recent ZTE blacklisting, Xi was more direct in the days that followed: In the face of a ¡°foreign blockade,¡± Xi said, China is ready to ¡°cast aside illusions and rely on itself¡± (Xinhua, April 26). CMF will be critical to bolstering China¡¯s technological independence, especially with research to ¡®core technologies¡¯ (ºËÐļ¼Êõ) like semiconductors, operating systems, and big data analytics¡ªmany of which have equally important commercial and military functions.

Building a Lean Defense Industry Base
Even with the added urgency in the aftermath of the ZTE blacklisting (covered elsewhere in this issue), the obstacles to CMF remain the same: China¡¯s sclerotic state-owned defense industrial base and byzantine regulations, which have long kept private enterprises away from defense-related work. At a press conference in December 2017, SASTIND Chief Engineer Long Hongshang (Áúºìɽ) summarized the main challenges facing the CMF as the ¡°four insufficients¡± (Ëĸö²»¹»): insufficient top-level planning; insufficient liberalization of military industry base; insufficient sharing of military resources and information; and insufficient ¡®spin-off¡¯ of defense technology (Cyber Civil-Mil Fusion Mag, January 31 via Wechat). China¡¯s leadership understands that rectifying these shortcomings and pave the way for greater fusion through long-term reforms that create the legal and regulatory foundation for private sector involvement in the defense industrial base.

In December 2017, the State Council issued the most in-depth and comprehensive opinion to date on reforming the defense industrial base through promoting CMF. The opinion called for further marketization of state-owned defense conglomerates on the principle of ¡®survival of the fittest¡¯ (ÓÅʤÁÓÌ*); establishing quantitative indicators for the openness of state-owned enterprises and participation in defense conversion; revising the restrictive stock shareholder system of state-owned defense conglomerates; and other reforms to ¡®lower the bar¡¯ for private enterprises (½µµÍÁ˽øÈëÃż÷) (JRJ.com, December 5 2017).

In addition, SASTIND and key agencies within the Central Military Commission (CMC) have undertaken incremental reforms like simplifying the permit process for private firms to contract with the military, declassifying defense patents for private sectors use, and opening more contracts for private company participation (Cyber Civil-Mil Fusion Mag, March 18 2018 via Wechat; IISS, January 2018; SCMP, April 20 2017).

The success of these reform will come down to whether new regulation lowers the entry cost for private firms contracting with the PLA and incentivizes defense conglomerates to collaborate with the private sector. In order to simplify regulation already on the books and unify CMF efforts, in February 2018, the CPC, State Council, and CMC issued a rare high-profile edict that empowers the CCMIDC to clean up old law and regulation. State-media hailed the move as ushering in a ¡°springtime¡± for CMF (¾üÃñÈںϡ®´ºÌ졯) (China Court, February 23).

Local Development with CMF Characteristics
In part through the inclusion of CMF in major state development initiatives, China¡¯s leadership has impressed upon local officials the importance of prioritizing dual-use industries as a means of economic development [1]. Accordingly, a number of provinces and municipalities have heeded the call, integrating CMF into their development plans [2]. Often this has taken the form of ¡®cluster development¡¯ (¼¯Èº·¢Õ¹) that involves promoting collaboration between defense conglomerates, research institutes, and private enterprises that are located in near proximity. Notable examples include:

  • Foshan has included CMF as a major component of a proposed ¡°S&T corridor¡± linking Guangzhou and Shenzhen, China¡¯s premier hub for software and hardware development, and is relying on guidance from experts the Chinese Academy of Science, Chinese Academy of Military Science, and a number of large defense enterprises to establish ten CMF pilot projects in key emerging industries (Southern Daily, September 11 2017).
  • Shanghai¡¯s Minhang district has touted itself as an ¡°intelligent cluster¡± and has jointly established a research institute for CMF applications of AI and robotics in collaboration with the Harbin Institute of Technology (Reference Times, March 21).
  • In Xi¡¯an, officials have established a chamber of commerce for CMF enterprises and a dual-use robotics industry alliance in partnership with CASIC¡¯s 16th Research Institute and Xi¡¯an Jiaotong University (Shaanxi Daily, July 25 2017; West Net, July 13 2017).

Several municipalities like Tianjin also have released companion plans to the 13th Five Year Plan and New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan (AIDP). Like the AIDP, which aims to turn China into a global leader in AI by 2025, these companion plans focus on boosting regional competitiveness in specific ¡®frontier technologies¡¯ with military applications. That includes efforts to create the R&D infrastructure for the next generation of dual-use technology. Several examples are worth nothing:

  • The 2nd Research Institute of China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) has reportedly developed a deep-learning software for self-driving cars that rivals industry leaders, and is developing dual-use applications in collaboration with commercial firms (China Economy Daily, March 26).
  • In March 2018, Tianjin University and the Chinese Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology(CALT) established the ¡°joint-lab for human-machine melding intelligent Innovation¡± »ú»ìºÏÖÇÄÜ´´ÐÂÁªºÏʵÑéÊÒ, which is dedicated to pooling together expertise in neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and aerospace to progressing research on human-machine hybrid research with aerospace applications (China News Service, March 24).
  • In December 2017, following the guidance of the CCIMCD office, China¡¯s largest cybersecurity company 360 established the Cybersecurity Civil-Military Fusion Innovation Center ÍøÂç¿Õ¼ä°²È«¾üÃñÈںϴ´ÐÂÖÐÐÄ in Mianyang, Sichuan in order to provide solutions to national cyber defense [3]. The center will also collaborate with the National Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Collaborative Security Technology ´óÊý¾ÝÐ*ͬ°²È«¼¼Êõ¹ú¼Ò¹¤³ÌʵÑéÊÒ to provide big data security analytics solutions. (China Net Science, March 29).

Funding CMF Development
Helping along these local developments in CMF are a number of state-backed venture funds that have sprung up over the past few years. While much attention has been paid to the main fund behind China¡¯s semiconductor push, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (National IC Fund), several major national and regional CMF funds also command notable sway and are currently driving investment in dual-use industries. The size of the top CMF seven funds, according to publicly available information, is a combined RMB 362 billion ($56.85 billion). The powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has also established its own CMF fund, though details about the fund¡¯s size and scale have not been forthcoming (Cyber Civil-Military Fusion Magazine accessed via Wechat, March 21).

Name
Date
Established
Fund Size
Region
Source
Central Enterprises National Innovation Investment Fund
ÖÐÑëÆóÒµ¹ú´´Í¶×ÊÒýµ¼»ù½ð
07/01/17
RMB 113.9 billion
National
http://www.most.gov.cn/kjbgz/201705/t20170519_132869.htm
Foshan Civil-Military Innovative Industries Fund
·ðɽ¾üÃñÈںϴ´Ð²úÒµ»ù½ð
09/01/17
RMB 200 billion
Foshan, Guangdong
http://www.ce.cn/cysc/ny/gdxw/201709/17/t20170917_26037639.shtml
Guohua Civil-Military Fusion Industry Development Fund
¹ú»ª¾üÃñÈںϲúÒµ·¢Õ¹»ù½ð
08/01/16
RMB 30.2 billion [first phase]
Guangzhou, Guangdong
http://www.spacechina.com/n25/n144/n206/n224/c1423620/content.html
Shaanxi Civil-Military Fusion Industry Investment Fund
ÉÂÎ÷¾üÃñÈںϲúҵͶ×Ê»ù½ð
12/01/16
RMB 10 billion
Xi¡¯an
http://www.sohu.com/a/193173694_99917590
Chengdu Civil-Military Fusion Industries Development Fund
¾üÃñÈںϲúÒµ·¢Õ¹»ù½ð
04/21/2018
RMB 5 billion
Chengdu, Sichuan
http://e.chengdu.cn/html/2018-04/21/content_622423.htm
Mianyang S&T Wall Civil-Military Fusion Results Conversion Fund
¾üÃñÈںϳɹûת»¯»ù½ð
09/01/16
RMB 2 billion
Mianyang, Sichuan
http://zdb.pedaily.cn/pe/show32219/
Military Fusion Electronic and Aerospace Industries Fund
¾üÈÚµç×Óº½Ìì²úÒµ»ù½ð
12/01/16
RMB 1.5 billion
Xi¡¯an
http://www.sohu.com/a/193173694_99917590
Like the more prominent National IC Fund, these CMF funds are investing in production facilities, supporting research, and funding overseas mergers and acquisitions in a wide range of dual-use industries like aviation, aerospace, and robotics. At least on paper, some CMF funds, like the Foshan Civil-Military Innovative Industries Fund, are nearly as well capitalized or better capitalized than the National IC Fund. While analysts should not read too much into the stated capitalization¡ªhow that capital will be deployed will be more important to watch¡ªit¡¯s clear that the CMF is on its way to become a nationwide effort comparable to China¡¯s semiconductor push.

A New Strategy for a New Tech Cold War?
As has become abundantly clear, Xi has a muscular vision of ¡°self-reliance¡± in digital and emerging technologies that involves turning inward to harness internal capacity for innovation and production for objectives like turning the PLA into a ¡®world class fighting force.¡¯ Analysts, however, should contextualize CMF as part of a larger trend of the state imposing control over China¡¯s tech sectors.

More broadly, with private sector innovation increasingly powering advances in military technology, China¡¯s leadership sees the interweaving of the two domains as a national priority.

Xi¡¯s vision also includes greater control over China¡¯s hi-tech unicorns through internal party committees and privileged access to capital, which goes hand-in-hand with involving private sector firms in sensitive defense work (see New America, April 17). As the chances of a U.S.-China tech cold war grow more likely, it¡¯s increasingly clear that CMF is here to stay.

Lorand Laskai is a Research Associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. Follow him on Twitter @lorandlaskai.
Notes
[1] CMF has been included in nearly every major strategic initiative during Xi¡¯s tenure, including Made in China 2025 and Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Plan.
[2] SASTIND has been engaged in coordinating and implementing CMF at the local level through signing ¡°strategic cooperation framework agreements¡± with provincial-level and country-level officials. For more, see Greg Levesque and Mark Stokes, ¡°Blurred Lines: Military-Civil Fusion and the ¡®Going Out¡¯ of China¡¯s Defense Industry,¡± Pointe Bello, December 2016.
[3] Mianyang is home to the Chinese Academy Engineering Physics Öйú¹¤³ÌÎïÀíÑо¿Ôº, which is responsible for developing and testing China¡¯s nuclear weapons.

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Trump heralds capture of five Islamic State commanders

Reuters, 39 mins ago

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that five "most wanted" leaders of the Islamic State militant group had been captured, an apparent reference to the capture of five commanders of the militant group by Iraq.

"Five Most Wanted leaders of ISIS just captured!" Trump wrote in a post on Twitter, providing no further details.

Iraq had described the capture of the Islamic State commanders as "some of the most wanted" leaders of the group. The list did not include Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

(Reporting by Makini Brice; Editing by Tim Ahmann)
 

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Mattis Defends Trump Administration’s Call for Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons

By: John Grady
May 9, 2018 5:03 PM

Defense Secretary James Mattis called Moscow’s strategy of threatening to use low-yield nuclear weapons to get its way “bellicose and cavalier,” and he said the administration’s plan to develop America’s own low-yield nuclear weapons and deploy them on submarines would checkmate the Kremlin.

Mattis, speaking to the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee Wednesday, said having a stash of low-yield nuclear weapons would negate Russia’s plan to “escalate to de-escalate” tense confrontations in its favor. As matters stand now, he reminded the subcommittee, the United States’ only nuclear response to a low-yield first strike by Russia would be with high-yield weapons, which would lead Russia to respond with similar weapons – with the result being catastrophic for both nations and the world.

He added that the idea behind the U.S. move to develop low-yield nuclear weapons “is making sure our deterrent is fit for its time.”

Answering a question, Mattis said the development of the low-yield weapons did not violate existing treaties covering strategic arms. “What we’re doing is in compliance with the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.”

“Modernizing the nation’s nuclear deterrent delivery systems and our nuclear command and control is our department’s top priority,” Mattis said in his opening statement. During later questions about the cost of that modernization, he said it currently stood at about 4 percent of the Pentagon budget and would rise to about 6.3 percent – both of which he deemed affordable.

As for the Nuclear Posture Review’s reception among America’s allies – including the notion of developing the low-yield weapons – “it has been welcomed by them” in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, the secretary told the subcommittee.

Another key topic discussed at the hearing was how the war in Afghanistan has evolved in the last 17 years.

Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, said, “from 2001 to 2013, we did the fighting. In June 2013 [with 100,000 American soldiers and Marines in the country], we said to the Afghans, ‘you have the responsibility’” and then drew down to 8,000 Americans.

Since then, a Taliban resurgence has taken control of districts and provinces and is contesting even more regions.

Now the idea of “by-with-and-through” operations – with experienced American and NATO forces training and advising Afghan troops –will give the Afghan security forces the capabilities to bring the Taliban to the bargaining table, Dunford said.

Mattis said the Pentagon is looking for quality Afghan police and national security forces to work with and is enforcing “strict accountability; there will be no ghost soldiers,” or names on rosters for individual who don’t exist or don’t report for duty. Mattis later noted that “we’re going to vet the troops we’re working with” to ensure their loyalty to the Afghan national government.

“We will end up with more capable forces in the field,” even with a slight decline in their numbers, he said.

As to the situation on the ground today, Mattis said “violence and progress are co-existing.” The Taliban “went to bombs” on soft targets such as voter registration sites and markets because they were unable to prevail on the battlefield. With parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in October, registration sites have become targets for terrorist strikes. With these bombing attacks killing civilians, the insurgents’ “idea was to set a condition to wear our patience thin” and and to discourage Afghans in continuing support for Ashraf Ghani’s government.

In assessing the global security situation, Dunford said in his opening statement, “the United States military has a competitive advantage” over any adversary, from near peers like Russia and China to regional powers Iran and North Korea to terrorist organizations.

Mattis noted that the Fiscal Year 2019 budget requests more than $654 billion in program spending and an additional $11 billion in military construction. Additional funds are requested for overseas operations, including $5.2 billion for Afghanistan.

“We’re going to fix the problem” of auditing how that money is spent, Mattis added. He pledged to be “impatient and intolerant” in that regard and preemptively deliver any bad news on spending to Capitol Hill.

When asked about continuing resolutions’ impact on defense programs, Mattis said, “we’re going to have to get back to regular order,” meaning pass budgets at the start of the fiscal year on Oct. 1. Otherwise, “you’re putting us right back in the hole you had to dig us out of [with the two-year budget agreement calling for increased Pentagon budget]. …We want Congress in the driver’s seat.”

Also at the hearing, without going into detail, Mattis said the department will be presenting its Cyber Posture Review within a few months. Likewise, Dunford said the services are addressing the problem of manufacturing protective equipment specifically for women.
 
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