PLAY The Greatest Tactical General of All-time (photo fun - use your intuition)

Which is the greatest general?

  • Total voters
    60
coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
Someone actually went and money-balled military history. Ethan Arsht applied the principles of baseball sabermetrics to the performances of history’s greatest generals’ ability to win battles. It starts with comparing the number of wins from that general to a replacement general in the same circumstances.

The math is tricky but the list is definitive.

So, which general is at #1 all-time?

Photo “A” - Ulysses S. Grant
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Photo “B” - Robert E. Lee
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Photo “C” - Takeda Shingen
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Photo “D” - Napoleon Bonaparte
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coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
Although an imperfect source, Arsht complied data from 3,580 battles and 6,619 generals on Wikipedia. He has come up with some very interesting results. Keep in mind he uses a baseball statistical model known as WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

The idea behind the WAR framework is that in order to know how much better a player (or in this case, a military general) is than a player that would typically be available to replace that player, one must start by comparing the player to average in a variety of venues, then compare the theoretical replacement player to the average player and add the two results together. It’s a bit tricky, and certainly has its downsides, but it does give an interesting perspective.

We will be able to find all our favorite generals on his list. I personally would’ve thought Alexander the Great…
 
M

Marthanoir

TB Fanatic
E - Michael Collins

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coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
Modern generals performed relatively poorly in the model. American general George S. Patton, described by historian Terry Brighton as “among the greatest generals of [World War II],” accumulated only .9 WAR. The failure of modern generals to perform well in WAR may be attributable to changes in warfare which have prevented individual generals from participating in a large number of battles.

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“I will kick your coal-cracking…”.

:hlp:
 
coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
Capt. Eddie said:
Went with Lee of the choices, I would have said " the Desert Fox" Fieldmarshal Erwin Rommel.
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Totally agree! This is from the man who did the analysis:

“German field marshal Erwin Rommel nicknamed the ‘Desert Fox’ for his successes in North Africa during World War II, also performed poorly in this model, finishing with -1.953 WAR.”
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Dennis Olson said:
B

The only reason IMO that the south lost the war was that they had no significant industrial capability.

Napoleon lost bigtime, and I don’t know the Chinese guy.
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Takeda Shingen was Japanese, not Chinese.

As for the South, besides not having an industial base, and not being able to import what they needed they didn't have the available manpower to put in the field while the Union not only did but was recruiting men right off of the immigration ships that were still coming to northern ports.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
RB Martin said:
You mean to tell me it's not Sun Tzu or Baron Carl von Clausewitz? Surely you jest!
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Considering that von Clausewitz went from entering the Prussian army as a Lance Corporal at the age of twelve and died at the age of 51 as a major general on campaign along the Polish Frontier serving throughout during the Napoleonic Wars and after. Arguably, his influence, as well as Sun Tzu's, on everyone else was more telling than his overall personal influence successes on the battlefield.
 
RB Martin

RB Martin

Veteran Member
Housecarl said:
Considering that von Clausewitz went from entering the Prussian army as a Lance Corporal at the age of twelve and died at the age of 51 as a major general on campaign along the Polish Frontier serving throughout during the Napoleonic Wars and after. Arguably, his influence, as well as Sun Tzu's, on everyone else was more telling than his overall personal influence successes on the battlefield.
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I agree but I find it ironic though that the two men who almost everyone studies are not in the list.
 
RB Martin

RB Martin

Veteran Member
Elza said:
Only after the south ran out of supplies and material. Prior to that the Union army was getting their collective asses handed to them compliments of Robert E. Lee and his generals.
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My heart says Robert E Lee, but my head says U.S. Grant. Here's a picture of Grant standing to the left of my cousin Gov William Aiken after the Civil War. There are quite a few notables aside from them in this Matthew Brady daguerreotype.
 

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dawgofwar10

dawgofwar10

Veteran Member
Said it once I will say it again, it was E. But that was not an option so I dropped back one in the Alphabet. Who else do you could command a battle with a constant itch on his left side!!!!
 
coalcracker

coalcracker

Veteran Member
night driver said:
======> [sits on hands]==== [no spoilers] === [besides I COULD be very wrong] =====> sits back and waits for reveal.....
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And it won’t be long…we have to wrap this one up before Memorial Day ends. I see you selected the Tiger of Kai, photo “C.” Good pick. He is in the top 5 for sure, but is he # 1? Reveal will be posted shortly…
 
RB Martin

RB Martin

Veteran Member
dawgofwar10 said:
Said it once I will say it again, it was E. But that was not an option so I dropped back one in the Alphabet. Who else do you could command a battle with a constant itch on his left side!!!!
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You said "D" the first time brother! (Never mind! I saw what you did!) ;)
 
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