ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

S

Squid

Veteran Member
jward said:
Threat of Russian invasion of Ukraine tests Biden administration
Paul Sonne, Ellen Nakashima, Missy Ryan

9-11 minutes


The White House is reviewing options to deter a feared Russian invasion of Ukraine, including providing more military aid to Kyiv and threatening sanctions, to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from escalating the simmering conflict into a full-blown transatlantic crisis.

The deliberations come as President Biden and his aides prepare for a virtual call with Putin next month, a moment that analysts see as an opportunity to signal the costs of an invasion to the Kremlin but also present a path for reducing tension.
Amid spiking U.S. concern over unusual movements by Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked Monday on a trip to Europe, where Washington is looking to consolidate a position among allies at a summit with NATO foreign ministers in Latvia. Blinken will then go to Sweden for a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, also scheduled to be attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
“We will talk about our assessment of what’s happening on Russia’s border with Ukraine, and we will begin that conversation of what are the options that are on the table, and what is it that NATO as an alliance would like to do together?” Karen Donfried, the State Department’s top official for Europe, said ahead of the trip.

Administration officials are trying to craft an approach that neither appeases Russia nor provokes significant escalation, which is harder now than it was nearly eight years ago, when Moscow annexed Crimea and fueled a separatist war in Ukraine’s east that has left more than 13,000 people dead.
The Russian and Ukrainian militaries are more advanced, the West remains divided on how tough to be on Moscow, and Putin has grown increasingly bold about pressing Russia’s claims on Ukraine.
“There has never been a more propitious moment for Putin if he wants to invade Ukraine,” said Fiona Hill, who served as a top Russia adviser in the Trump administration.
The Kremlin denies it is planning an offensive. For weeks, however, U.S. officials have warned publicly and in discussions with allies that they are alarmed about Russian troops near the Ukrainian border. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday said Russia had massed a “large and unusual concentration of forces in the region,” including tanks, artillery, armored units, drones and electronic warfare systems, as well as combat-ready troops. Ukraine says Russia has about 94,000 troops near the border.
The intelligence that worried senior Biden administration officials goes beyond the Russian troop buildup, according to U.S. officials, who declined to be more specific and who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

The administration is considering enhanced military aid to Ukraine and weighing potential sanctions or other measures that could be taken before or after an invasion, in addition to reviewing military contingency plans, U.S. officials said.
Washington has also floated the possibility of an in-person summit between Biden and Putin in the first half of 2022, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that might buy time to build unity among allies or revitalize a moribund political process to resolve the military conflict in Ukraine’s east.
The potential meeting was broached by CIA Director William J. Burns in his visit to Moscow earlier this month, they said. The possible in-person meeting was first reported by the Russian newspaper Kommersant. The White House said it had nothing to announce about a meeting.

Ukraine has shored up its defenses since 2014 with Western help. But Ukrainian Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the country’s top military intelligence official, this month told the Military Times that Kyiv is seeking additional air, missile and drone defense systems, as well as electronic jamming devices, to help counter rocket and artillery fire.
U.S. officials have said they aren’t sure if Putin is going to attack, or even whether he has reached a decision, noting he could be moving forces near the Ukrainian border as a bargaining strategy with Western powers. After surprising Washington with a similar buildup last spring, Putin landed his first high-profile summit with Biden.

But comments by Putin and other top Russian officials about Ukraine have sharpened in recent months, and that more aggressive rhetoric, combined with the second military buildup, have raised fears the Russian leader may not be bluffing.
“When you say things like, ‘Ukraine does not now and has never had a right to exist as a sovereign state, there is no such thing as the Ukrainian people,’ where does your rhetoric go from there?” a senior Western intelligence officer said. “And where has rhetoric like that led in the past? It has pretty consistently been a prelude to conflict.”
The dilemma, said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a Russia expert at the Center for a New American Security, “is Putin fundamentally cares more about Ukraine than even the United States does. So how do you deter an adversary when there’s such an asymmetry of interests?’’
Andrew S. Weiss, a Russia analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Putin has failed to achieve his goals in Ukraine, and in fact his aggression has worsened the security situation on Russia’s western border, revitalized NATO and strengthened anti-Russian sentiment in Ukrainian society.
“For a whole host of reasons, he’ll never admit that, of course, which is part of the reason he continues to see restoring Ukraine to the Kremlin’s sphere of influence as the single most important piece of unfinished business for Russia’s security and his own legacy,” Weiss said.

On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alleged a group of Russians and Ukrainians were found plotting a coup against him, accusations the Kremlin rejected.
The deteriorating situation presents a new test for the transatlantic alliance, which has embraced Ukraine as a partner rather than an ally. It has provided Kyiv with weaponry, training and support, but stopped short of extending a guarantee of defense that formal NATO membership affords.
Ukrainian officials have warned Moscow could mount a simultaneous multifront invasion from the north, south and east to force a retreat and capitulation by Kyiv. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told The Washington Post that a new Russian invasion would be far bloodier and more costly to Europe than the 2014 operation.

The ambiguity about how far NATO would go to defend Ukraine against Russian military action already has sparked debate in Washington and exacerbated divides within the alliance that the Kremlin has sought to exploit.
Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the Rand Corporation, argued the United States, faced with limited ability to coerce Putin, should pressure Ukraine into further implementing the moribund 2015 peace deal known as the Minsk II agreement as a symbolic first move to “put the onus on Moscow to de-escalate.”
Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, said Washington should do the opposite, and apply diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Moscow.
“Nothing in Russia’s history should cause anybody to think for one second that giving in to them will cause them to say, ‘okay, we’re good,’ ” Hodges said. “I believe they really do only respect strength.”
The top Republicans on the House and Senate Armed Services Committees sent a letter to the Pentagon last week urging the administration to do more to shore up Ukraine’s military and expressing concern that the United States hasn’t taken more aggressive action.

Kendall-Taylor said the upcoming call is a chance to convey the costs of an invasion and emphasize that it would change the security situation in Europe. “The U.S. would have no choice but to position more forces in Europe,” Kendall-Taylor said.
U.S. officials say they realize meetings alone are not offramps.
“There’s this tension between getting rid of the crisis in the near term — let’s throw another summit at Putin — and the longer-term imperative,” said one official. “If you offer concessions, what do you teach them and China? You teach them to manufacture crises because you get concessions.”
The Biden administration’s response is also sure to be watched closely elsewhere around the world, perhaps most notably in China, where Beijing’s stance on Taiwan in many ways mirrors Russia’s approach to Ukraine.
The latest challenge over Ukraine comes as Europe grapples with an energy crisis that has highlighted its dependency on Russian gas, and as the continent faces a leadership transition in Germany. Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel for years took the lead on European diplomacy toward Ukraine.

Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Europe must “step up to meet this challenge.” Any further incursion by Russia into Ukraine, which has been established as an independent nation for 30 years, she said, poses a “massive challenge to the territorial integrity of every other European state.”
Karoun Demirjian contributed to this report.
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This has to be the most moronic thing I have read in at least 1 week. And in todays world that is saying something.

Exactly what fantasy unicorn land does Anybody think THIS administration has credibility on Anything geopolitical after seeing how they have basically been running policy out of Beijing?????

The freakin fruitloops running both foreign and defense policy have their heads so far up their behinds they will not realize we are in WW3 until the ICBMs are landing on theirs and our heads.

Putin is not the good guy here but the weakness and incompetence we have shown and the look that the dems may get taken out in the midterms provides a very tight window for all the bad actors to take advantage.

Think about this very carefully.

If people like Jill and the Obama puppetmasters behind the scenes are running the whitehouse. And we are attacked possibly with nukes. Who exactly has the authority to take command of the defense of the US and US military oversea’s? Jill and the Obama puppet masters Do Not Have the Launch codes and cannot initiate a strike. Don’t you think the Kremlin and Beijing are looking at this exact same dilemma! Maybe they think we are effectively as far as military leadership without anyone in position to take command or be in position to make a decision in the 20-30 minutes that AT most would be available.

By the time the people could wake up Biden and wheel him to The suitcase we would be effectively toast.

This idea of questionable military leadership with the traitorous incompetence from the political leadership puts us in very dangerous situation.
 
Doughboy42

Doughboy42

Veteran Member
Squid said:
This has to be the most moronic thing I have read in at least 1 week. And in todays world that is saying something.

Exactly what fantasy unicorn land does Anybody think THIS administration has credibility on Anything geopolitical after seeing how they have basically been running policy out of Beijing?????

The freakin fruitloops running both foreign and defense policy have their heads so far up their behinds they will not realize we are in WW3 until the ICBMs are landing on theirs and our heads.

Putin is not the good guy here but the weakness and incompetence we have shown and the look that the dems may get taken out in the midterms provides a very tight window for all the bad actors to take advantage.

Think about this very carefully.

If people like Jill and the Obama puppetmasters behind the scenes are running the whitehouse. And we are attacked possibly with nukes. Who exactly has the authority to take command of the defense of the US and US military oversea’s? Jill and the Obama puppet masters Do Not Have the Launch codes and cannot initiate a strike. Don’t you think the Kremlin and Beijing are looking at this exact same dilemma! Maybe they think we are effectively as far as military leadership without anyone in position to take command or be in position to make a decision in the 20-30 minutes that AT most would be available.

By the time the people could wake up Biden and wheel him to The suitcase we would be effectively toast.

This idea of questionable military leadership with the traitorous incompetence from the political leadership puts us in very dangerous situation.
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What, you have no faith in Milley and Austin?
 
S

Squid

Veteran Member
Doughboy42 said:
What, you have no faith in Milley and Austin?
Click to expand...
Even if Milley and Austin weren’t political suck-ups with Pelosi pulling their leash but say they needed authorization for Serious military stuff. Who exactly do they go to to get a Constitutional decision? And heaven help us if they start throwing nukes, do we really think Biden is calling the shots? Who handles the football and the Presidential codes?
 
O

Oreally

Right from the start
Squid said:
Even if Milley and Austin weren’t political suck-ups with Pelosi pulling their leash but say they needed authorization for Serious military stuff. Who exactly do they go to to get a Constitutional decision? And heaven help us if they start throwing nukes, do we really think Biden is calling the shots? Who handles the football and the Presidential codes?
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jill
 
V

vestige

Deceased
jward said:
:eek:

Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info

U.S. officials are expecting the number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border to exceed above 100,000. NATO is currently planning an abundance of contingencies and plan to discuss joint military plans on Wednesday to raise the cost of any Russian invasion - WP





Marcus
@CypherSky29

Replying to
@Global_Mil_Info
Not once since 1983, have we been closer to the prospect of a all out nuclear war than we are today.
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They better have lots of contingencies to deal with over 100,000 troops.
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
JR Nquist postulated in an interview somebody posted here on timebomb that the Chinese Marxists were INSIDE our sub command launch systems and could PREVENT subs launching nuke missiles on China or Russia.
Further, he indicated his Russian sources were stating that a combined Russian/Chinese first strike could PREVENT any type of American response before our systems were destroyed.

For one thing, Red Baron EXACTLY who has command of the American Nuclear Football, the launch codes, and the command authority to order, much less implement a nuclear response? Don't ya all think both Xi and Putin have made the judgement they can take us out BEFORE we can hit them back?

Yeah, I think that is what they think, and God help us.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Waiting for the freeze
The Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatists
But now war of a different kind looms
20211204_eup501.jpg


Nov 30th 2021
KYIV

WHAT TO MAKE of the military analysts who calmly list the reasons why the most serious war in Europe since 1945 might begin in January? The flat, muddy terrain of south-eastern Ukraine will be frozen solid by then, allowing Russian tanks to roll in. It is in the middle of the deployment cycle for the conscripts who make up much of Russia’s ground forces. And Russia may find itself with a pretext for invasion, since the new year has in the past brought front line flare-ups in Ukraine’s war against Russian-backed separatists. Besides, the 100,000 Russian troops massed near the border are more than mere theatre; Russia is setting up field hospitals and calling up its reserves.

Dima is unimpressed. A colonel in the Ukrainian army, he has watched the rapid transformation of his country’s armed forces from a bad joke to something approaching a modern army. And he thinks Russia has been watching, too. “They are afraid of us, because since 2014 we have shown what we can do,” says Dima, who prefers not to use his real name. “It would be a third world war, at a minimum,” he says, perhaps with a touch of hyperbole. In the corner of a café in Kyiv, fidgeting with cigarettes and coffee, he remembers how far Ukraine has travelled.

In 2014 Dima was commanding a battalion near Luhansk, a city near the Russian border. Of his 700 soldiers, only 40 were ready for active duty. His men did not bother to wear their clumsy Soviet-army vests or helmets, which offered little protection against bullets. Soldiers instead, when possible, dressed in German gear scrounged abroad in second-hand stores by volunteers. His tanks had the wrong engines installed. Few men had the training they needed to fight well. Had Ukraine enjoyed today’s military back in 2014 “Donetsk and Luhansk would be free today,” claims Dima with a snap of his fingers.

20211204_eum948.png

But they are not. Ukraine failed to stop Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and the self-declared “republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk remain outside Ukraine’s control. That Ukraine had just 6,000 combat-ready troops at the time was a legacy of decades of neglect. Well-intentioned Ukrainian politicians were complacent after the signing in 1994 of the Budapest memorandum, under which Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from America, Britain and Russia. Ill-intentioned officials, some with Russian citizenship, sold off equipment and took their cut.

Now Ukraine is getting its act together. Military spending as a share of GDP has more than doubled to 4%, funded in part by a “military levy” on incomes. America has given $2.5bn-worth of equipment to Ukraine. That includes Harris radios to ensure troops can communicate, and counter-battery radars to detect the source of enemy fire. Soldiers enthuse about their modern new uniforms. Conscription was reintroduced, though 85% of Ukraine’s soldiers are still professional.
Some necessary reforms will take time the country does not have. Procurement is murky and state-owned manufacturers are unproductive. An overly rigid Soviet-era command culture persists. But Ukraine has 250,000 troops and a further 900,000 reserves. Some 300,000 of them have experience on the front line. The new soldiers are better trained. The West, at first reluctant to send Ukraine weaponry, is changing tack. Ukraine has bought TB-2 Bayraktar combat-capable drones from Turkey, a NATO member, which the separatists can do little to stop. America has sent Ukraine Javelin missiles, though on the condition that they be stored far from the front line.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wants more. Weaponry is nice but what he covets most is accession to NATO. That would commit America and 29 other countries to leap to Ukraine’s defence were it attacked by Russia. But such an invitation looks highly unlikely; NATO does not want an unambiguous commitment to defend a country Russia has already attacked. However, Ukraine is preparing its forces for “interoperability” with NATO forces anyway. Joint exercises with NATO are increasingly common; the older ones such as Rapid Trident, and Sea Breeze this summer, are getting bigger and more sophisticated. New exercises are also cropping up, such as Cossack Mace, a Britain-Ukraine exercise that began this year, and “Coherent Resilience”, an annual tabletop NATO exercise with Ukrainian officials that began in 2017. A new policy mandates command of English among all Ukrainian troops by 2025.
Much of Ukraine’s improvement has been based on the premise that Russia wants to challenge Ukraine, but does not want the cost of waging a war in its own name. Vladimir Putin funnelled troops and small quantities of Russian kit to the front line; but he has not sent planes or entire battalions. That has produced the kind of disorganised ground war that Ukraine has been getting better at fighting ever since. If Ukraine’s beefier military can deny Mr Putin his preferred option of a low-risk military gambit, the thinking goes, Ukraine might keep Russia at bay.

But Russian thinking may be changing in response to a version of the future it finds intolerable. It fears that a West-veering Ukraine will abandon its historical role as a buffer between Russia and the West, and instead play host to American firepower only a short distance from Moscow. Critics accuse Mr Putin of scheming to ensure that the Minsk II ceasefire agreement of 2015 would see Donetsk and Luhansk, with their large Russian populations, put back into a federal Ukraine with a power of veto over any Westward tilt. That has not happened. Ukraine’s courtship of Europe and America is continuing and Russia is losing patience, reckons Samuel Charap of the RAND corporation, an American think-tank.

That does not mean that Russia wishes to gobble up large swathes of Ukrainian territory for good. Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign-policy analyst close to the Kremlin, suggests that a quick, hard incursion akin to Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia could occur, followed by merciless talks. A pretext would not be hard to find, or to manufacture.

That force, unleashed fully upon Ukraine’s troops, would pulverise them. Nothing in Ukraine’s arsenal would be able to stop Russia’s air force of modern jets, which recently proved their power in a bombing campaign over Syria. Most of Ukraine’s navy vanished along with Crimea in 2014 and has not been rebuilt since then. Russian troops are better armed, greater in number and backed by a smoother logistics set-up. No Western power looks willing to wage war against Russia for Ukraine’s sake. Mr Putin is probably bluffing. If he is not, Dima’s confidence will face a fearsome test. ■

Reuse this contentThe Trust Project
www.economist.com

The Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatists

But now war of a different kind looms
www.economist.com www.economist.com
 
T

Techwreck

Veteran Member
vestige said:
They better have lots of contingencies to deal with over 100,000 troops.
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Can't remember if it was Biden or the Pentagon spokesman Kirby talking about how they had planned for EVERY contingency in the Afghanistan withdrawal. That sure went well, not.

Is an abundance of contingency plans now the goal, rather than the quality of plans?

And the comment by JR Nyquist about Chicom infiltration at a level that could short circuit our nuclear response to an attack?

I would not have believed that possible until I saw a Chicom-owned senile puppet installed as US president through obvious physical and cyber vote fraud.

Hopefully General Milley can contact our enemies ahead of any conflict and give them a heads up. :bhd:

Peak corruption has intersected peak arrogance and peak delusional stupidity.

What's the contingency plan for that?
 
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