Russia is once more conducting military exercis9es near its border with eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian territory it has occupied since 2014. This time the “training exercises” are more threatening because they involve the equivalent of six combat brigades, accompanied by additional artillery (gun and rocket) units moving to the border as well as a buildup of combat aircraft and warships in the Crimean Peninsula, the one Ukrainian province Russia was able take in 2014 and annex. Russia then sought to take two provinces in eastern Ukraine, which comprise the economically important Donbas (Don River Basin) region. Surprisingly, for the Russians, Ukrainian forces quickly responded to the 2014 Donbas seizure effort and after months of intense combat there was a stalemate, with Russian holding half the territory it sought. The equivalent of half a dozen Ukrainian combat brigades now hold the line against a slightly smaller force of ethnic Russian residents of Donbas, plus volunteers (mercenaries) from Russia and thousands of Russian soldiers pretending to be volunteers. What has worried the Ukrainians is the Russian buildup of forces stationed near the Ukraine border. This force now consists of about seven combat brigades. This time Russia also brought warships to the Donbas Black Sea coast and in position to attack the two main port cities there. The air force buildup in Crimea and increased EW (Electronic Warfare) equipment along the border is either another training exercise or Russia seeking to take Donbas, and maybe more, by force and then declare peace. This would increase the costs of occupying Donbas and incur additional sanctions. This is already costing Russia several billion dollars a year.
Another complication is the fact that the Russian army has, since the 1990s, been smaller than the American army. That’s a first. The Russian army is also much smaller than the better equipped Chinese army, something Russia does not wish to dwell on with foreigners. Currently the Russian Army has about 20 combat brigades that are combat ready, plus a smaller number that are not. The current concentration of brigades on the Ukrainian border is the majority of such brigades the Russians possess. The Ukrainian ground forces have 170,000 active-duty troops versus 350,000 for Russia (and over 500,000 in the U.S.). Since 2014 Ukraine has reorganized and upgraded its ground forces and currently has as many combat ready brigades as Russia. Ukraine also has more reserve troops, who are better trained and dedicated than their Russian equivalents. In other words, Ukraine is not exactly helpless against a Russian invasion but most of the fighting would take place in Ukraine and civilian casualties would mostly be Ukrainian, as would the property damage. If the Russians did not sense a quick victory, they would probably propose peace and Ukraine would accept. As much as Ukrainians would like to humiliate their ancient Russian oppressors militarily, practical considerations take precedence.
Other Costs
Since 2015 the relative peace on the Donbas front has been an expensive irritant for Russia. The 2014 crises started because of a popular revolution in Ukraine against a blatant Russian effort to bribe Ukrainian politicians to block popular efforts to establish more economic and other links with the West, often at the expense of Russia. Officially the Crimean and Donbas Russians were responsible for spontaneous local uprisings. That was not the case. Russia sought to use special operations troops and subversion techniques that had worked in the past and that was the case in Crimea, but not in Donbas because the Ukrainians saw through the Russian tactics and responded with more patriotic fervor that the Russians thought possible.
Since 2015 Russia has gone through the motions of an actual invasion several times, but always backed off because of apparent Ukrainians resolve and an increase in Western hostility and threats of more sanctions. America has a new government since January 2021 and that always provides an opportunity to test the resolve of the new team. Despite that Ukraine is a situation where Russia loses no matter what they do. Ukraine and the West (including the post-1991 East European members of NATO) come out ahead it they oppose an actual Russian invasion with more military assistance and more sanctions on Russia.
The economic sanctions have cost Russia hundreds of billion dollars in losses so far. Even expatriate Russians who send money to kin still in Russia are less active. Before the 2014 sanctions expats sent nearly $20 billion a year back to Russia. Those amounts have since declined by half and continues to shrink.
The sanctions have made existing economic problems worse. For example, during 2020 Russian disposable income fell 3.5 percent. The covid19 lockdowns were largely responsible for this high (compared to other European countries) fall in disposable income. For Russia this decline is part of an eight-year trend because the Russian consumer is still suffering from the economic impact of post-2014 sanctions and permanently lower oil prices. Since 2013 disposable income has declined over ten percent. While the government issues press releases about how well Russia is dealing with the economic problems, the reality is different. Most Russians personally experience the decline each year in their incomes and standard of living. Russian GDP is down over 30 percent since 2013.
March 30, 2021: The French Rafale jet fighter is being offered as a candidate for the new fighter Ukraine is seeking as replacements for its elderly MiG-29s and Su-27s. Previous to the French announcement, the main contenders were the latest versions of the American F-16 and F-18. All three aircraft are competitive with each other and the latest Russian designs. The French are more willing to make concessions, like allowing some of the manufacturing to take place in the purchasing nation. This would be easy and very beneficial for Ukraine which still has a modern military aircraft industry. Since the 1990s the Ukrainian aviation firms have concentrated on maintenance services and upgrades and are ready to deal with Rafale manufacturing and assembly. In the last few years Rafale finally achieved the export sales it had long sought. Rafale has considerable combat experience and has been regularly updated.
March 28, 2021: The Russian parliament approved a law that allows Vladimir Putin, who has ruled Russia for two decades as president or prime minister, to run for reelection again in 2024. The Russian constitution still stipulates that no one can serve more than two terms as president. Putin always maintained control of parliament, which enabled him to implement legal loopholes in the law that enabled to stay in power.
March 27, 2021: In Southeast Asia Myanmar (Burma) the new military government welcomed a visit by a Russian Deputy Defense minister. Since February 1st Burma is once again controlled by a military government. China promptly used their veto powers in the UN to block UN actions against the new military rulers of Burma. Within two weeks Russia also proclaimed support for the military government. The response of the military was not unexpected, because the civilian government knew that the Burmese generals maintained their connections in China and was the main reason China has sold $1.4 billion worth of military equipment to Burma since 2010. Russia sold $800 million worth. Together China and Russia accounted for over 90 percent Burmese spending on imports of military gear. Russia was one of the six nations that accepted the invitation to attend the Burmese Armed Forces Day parade today.
The coup has not worked out as planned because the country is now sliding towards economic crisis and civil war. Anti-government demonstrations continue despite troops and police being ordered to open fire. Hundreds have been killed and many more wounded while thousands have been arrested so far. The Burmese military is comfortable with the cozy relationship with China and Russia but most Burmese are not. The alliance of separatist northern tribes, which reached a peace agree with the elected government in 2016 refused to recognize or cooperate with the military government. Burmese military leaders were surprised at the extent and duration of mass protests during the last two months. By popular agreement the economy is shut down and the generals have to worry about the morale and loyalty of their troops because of the weeks of popular protests and being ordered to open fire on fellow Burmese. The military still has income because during their decades of rule (from 1962 to 2010) they came to control many businesses and some of those were joint ventures with China. A lot of Chinese firms pay the Burmese military directly for joint ventures. This provides the military with at least a billion dollars a year, assuming the Chinese operations can keep functioning. Burmese army officers made a lot of money allowing China to do business in the tribal north, often at the expense of local civilians, most of them tribal people. After the return of democracy in 2011, China no longer had as much freedom in the north. Russia is of little help economically bit is one of the few nations supporting the military government.
March 26, 2021: In eastern Ukraine (Donbas) the Russian-backed rebels broke the July 2020 ceasefire agreement big time and fired machine-guns, automatic grenade launchers and mortars at Ukrainian troops. This was done numerous times today, killing four Ukrainian troops and wounding two. So far in 2021 incidents like this have left 16 Ukrainian soldiers dead and many more wounded. Since 2014 over 13,000 soldiers, rebels and civilians have died in the Donbas.
March 19, 2021: Algeria has ordered 300 Russian BMPT-72 Terminator 2 fire support armored vehicles. This is a customized BMP IFV (Infantry Fighting Vehicle) optimized for urban warfare. Since 2007 Algeria has become the second largest (after India) customer for Russian arms exports. In 2006 forgave the $5.6 billion Algeria still owed for weapons bought from the Soviet Union during the Cold War. During that period Russian weapons were often sold on very attractive terms with low or no down payments and extended repayment schedules that amounted to giving away the weapons to gain diplomatic support. After the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, many of those countries owing billions for weapons delivered, refused to pay. Eventually Russia decided it was better to forgive debt in order to seek new orders on stricter terms. This worked with Algeria which has, since 2006 ordered nearly twice the value of the forgiven debt in new orders. Algeria pays on time and gets good tech support from Russia, at least better than what the Soviets often did not supply.
March 17, 2021: Russia is recalling its ambassador to the United States for unspecified reason. Russia and China are united in calling the new (since January) American government weak and vulnerable. Both are demanding that the U.S. lift its sanctions and treat Russia and China with more respect.
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