ECON Question about selling PMs, looking forward
- Thread starter abby normal
- Start date
The bible verse means that there is virtually no supply at all. Therefore, there cannot be price discovery or a value assigned to anything. We're not there yet.
And, go ahead and value a heritage (not "junk silver") quarter at 25 cents (of what, a FRN fiat based system?). It will still trade for a certain amount of goods. Perhaps value will increase to an equivalnet amount of goods that it was worth more than a hundred years ago. For example, a five pound sack of sugar was 5 cents as was a bottle of Coca-cola at a soda fountain.
abby normal
insert appropriate adjective here
I have a teenager and a toddler.
Worst case scenario rattling around my brain: no comms, no internet, EVERYTHING shut down, NO travel allowed. People will be isolated. People possibly sealed in their houses, by choice or by force. Checkpoints. Neighborhoods being monitored just in case someone tries to sneak out.
Impossible? Look where we are now vs. 4 months ago.
In Australia they are taking lockdowns to a new level.
The last lockdown wasn't so bad because people could still order stuff online. I don't know if we'll be so lucky next time. Yep I'm feeling some hard doom vibes here as of late.
My options: sell some PMs now, lay in more supplies now while they're attainable . Or, the original plan- sit on the PMs for when fiat goes bust. The devil you know, or the devil you don't know?
I guess it will be best for me to keep some and sell some. I believe what the bible says- pretty soon it won't matter.
Thank you all for your replies, you've given me much to think about.
Jonas Parker
Hooligan
I believe that if/when the world economy totally crashes, all fiat money will be worthless. Barter will be used for at least the next year. After that, ammunition and silver coinage will be used as currency. Gold coins will be used primarily for very major purchases. Just a guess.
Hfcomms
EN66iq
That is the way I basically see it as well. A $20 gold coin in 1920 bought you a top notch business suit or beef cow and it will do the same today. It's the dollar that has tanked in the last 100 years. That being said things have a way of being undervalued and then overvalued as commodities do from time to time. The metals have been suppressed and are artificially undervalued right now and when the crunch comes I can see them reverse and shoot to being overvalued when the currency is worthless.
But that isn't why I have them hoping for the price to go up. And unfortunately most people that sell metal hawk them as an investment that goes up in value. That will probably happen but that isn't why you should have them. They are not a trade to make fiat off of. They are money plain and simple. If they go up in value then great but that isn't why I personally have them. I value mine in ounces in the safe and not in dollars.
Lets me sleep better at night. LOL!!
GammaRat
Veteran Member
I will value your "pre-1964 quarter" at exactly 25 cents!
And we will NOT make a deal
(unless you value what you are selling at 1964 prices also)
The problem I'm pointing out is the average Jackwagon (me playing the ignorant Jackwagon) will not know the spot price of silver in a SHTF situation.
Naah! Wrong answer!!!
You really need to reread the verse. Silver and gold thrown into the street, does not mean there's a "shortage" of supply. Basic economic theory proves otherwise!
But continue reading.. It specifically says precious metals will NOT fill their stomachs...
And us farmers can just wait for you to starve and take your shit. Why would I trade a chicken or a goat for a hunk of metal?
I’d also be willing to trade labor and/or knowledge. Most farmers don’t need “stuff.”
Hfcomms
EN66iq
I've never farmed but I have had chickens. If my chickens are laying far more eggs than I can use darn right I'd trade you a silver quarter or half dollar for a dozen eggs if you were hungry. All the metals are is money....a medium of exchange. And you as a farmer eventually need fuel, fertilizer, parts for broken equipment, etc. People will want to receive something of value in return if they are willing to sell or barter what they have excess of.
doctor_fungcool
TB Fanatic
Skilled labor and specific knowledge in various areas concerning day to day living are just as valuable as PM'S....PM'S are but one piece of the survival puzzle...IMHO. Our wits and our enhanced intellect are the ultimate currency....
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Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
Well, my Gold and Silver ozs are about back where they were when I bought them plus premium back in January February and March, April.
18/19 Silver $1800 Gold oz. The point is they hold value. Ammo anybody?
18/19 Silver $1800 Gold oz. The point is they hold value. Ammo anybody?
If you know of a super price, on an item that is hot demand, and you realistically might never be able to obtain again, YES sell a portion of what you have to buy that item.
I'm not talking about consumable items that are eventually used up, food, underwear, shoes.
I'm talking about firearms and other durable goods that could save your life.
The worst thing you can do is delve into your ultimate savings and then realize what have I done.
Do not sell them. Find another way.
Can you borrow from a relative using PM's as loan collateral, with assurance you will get your collateral back after loan contract has been satisfied.
There aren't many times where I am in complete agreement with Dennis, this is one time where I completely agree.
Binkerthebear
Veteran Member
That doesn’t seem to make any sense unless there’s some 29-style severe deflationary event. I’m guessing in a SHTF scenario, a pre-1964 quarter might buy a home on 10 acres with a productive well and fat farm animals
West
Senior
One thing for sure if we have a currency crisis a fiat or clad price value of it will be a much different dollar.
Example, as a goat rancher I might sell one of my goats for five real silver dollars, but the fiat or clad price would be at least one hundred fed dollars even today.
If in the future the fed dollar crashes in value even more for me then one thousand fed dollars for a goat might be not even be worth it because of the tax liability. Whereas four or five real silver dollars is a much better deal.
Example, as a goat rancher I might sell one of my goats for five real silver dollars, but the fiat or clad price would be at least one hundred fed dollars even today.
If in the future the fed dollar crashes in value even more for me then one thousand fed dollars for a goat might be not even be worth it because of the tax liability. Whereas four or five real silver dollars is a much better deal.
a pre-1964 quarter might buy a home on 10 acres
In the depths of the 1929 Depression, good bottomland down home in AL could be had for $5 an acre. There were a couple of farms my dad would have coveted were it not a sin
. But he said that, at the time, they could barely scrape together five cents, much less five dollars. I've seen some of their cotton receipts from back then - he wasn't kidding.
In the depths of the 1929 Depression, good bottomland down home in AL could be had for $5 an acre. There were a couple of farms my dad would have coveted were it not a sin
. But he said that, at the time, they could barely scrape together five cents, much less five dollars. I've seen some of their cotton receipts from back then - he wasn't kidding.That's already been triggered. The results will take several months to percolate through the US Economy. Inflation then deflation, many are estimating it will take 10 years or more to recover from the damage to our economy done by our reaction to it. If your over 60 yrs old your life will probably never be the same.
If a person has the mind-set that things will start to recover and get back to normal in a year or so, your dreaming
Southside
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I don't know if it will get "that" bad, but it might.
There will always be trade. Gold and silver have been traded for 6,000 years. I don't see that changing
Southside
Given variations in coinage, inflation, debasement etc over time, it is notoriously difficult to assign relative values over centuries.
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Smith's Bible Dictionary
Denarius
(containing ten), Authorized Version "penny," (Matthew 18:28; 20:2,9,13) a Roman silver coin in the time of our Saviour and the Apostles, worth about 15 cents. It took its name from its being first equal to ten "asses," a number afterwards increased to sixteen. It was the principal silver coin of the Roman commonwealth. From the parable of the laborers in the vineyard it would seem that a denarius was then the ordinary pay for a day's labor. (Matthew 20:2,4,7,9,10,13)
Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary
(n.) A Roman silver coin of the value of about fourteen cents; the penny of the New Testament; -- so called from being worth originally ten of the pieces called as.
International Standard Bible Encyclopedia
DENARIUS
de-na'-ri-us (denarion): A Roman silver coin, 25 of which went to the aureus, the standard gold coin of the empire in the time of Augustus, which was equal in value to about one guinea or USD5, 25; more exactly ?1.0, 6 = USD5.00, the ? = USD4,866. Hence, the value of the denarius would be about 20 cents and this was the ordinary wage of a soldier and a day laborer. The word is uniformly rendered "penny" in the King James Version and "shilling" in the American Standard Revised Version, except in Matthew 22:19 Mark 12:15 and Luke 20:24, where the Latin word is used, since in these passsages it refers to the coin in which tribute was paid to the Roman government. See MONEY.
H. Porter
/snip/
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Topical Bible: Denarius
biblehub.com
Smith's Bible Dictionary
Denarius
(containing ten), Authorized Version "penny," (Matthew 18:28; 20:2,9,13) a Roman silver coin in the time of our Saviour and the Apostles, worth about 15 cents. It took its name from its being first equal to ten "asses," a number afterwards increased to sixteen. It was the principal silver coin of the Roman commonwealth. From the parable of the laborers in the vineyard it would seem that a denarius was then the ordinary pay for a day's labor. (Matthew 20:2,4,7,9,10,13)
Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary
(n.) A Roman silver coin of the value of about fourteen cents; the penny of the New Testament; -- so called from being worth originally ten of the pieces called as.
International Standard Bible Encyclopedia
DENARIUS
de-na'-ri-us (denarion): A Roman silver coin, 25 of which went to the aureus, the standard gold coin of the empire in the time of Augustus, which was equal in value to about one guinea or USD5, 25; more exactly ?1.0, 6 = USD5.00, the ? = USD4,866. Hence, the value of the denarius would be about 20 cents and this was the ordinary wage of a soldier and a day laborer. The word is uniformly rendered "penny" in the King James Version and "shilling" in the American Standard Revised Version, except in Matthew 22:19 Mark 12:15 and Luke 20:24, where the Latin word is used, since in these passsages it refers to the coin in which tribute was paid to the Roman government. See MONEY.
H. Porter
/snip/
Jonas Parker
Hooligan
Here's the definitive work on hyper-inflation:
Ferfal's book is also excellent:
Ferfal's book is also excellent:
Jonas, your images didnt render
Jonas Parker
Hooligan
Funny... they look good to me!
Why? What economic theory?
And why would you trade, why to pay taxes or utilities, for starters. What are you going to pay with, goats?
Why wouldn't you just wait us out (real Christian, by the way)? Because commodities spoil, that's why. Because people would steal everything the farmers have (by force), and then sell it (and establish market value). How many thousands can you stand up against, Gamma? Seriously, get real.
Are you going to be the man who finally wins against the IRS or government forces? Quit indulging in your hero fantasies.
The only other explanation I can think of is that gold and sliver are worthless because of the mark of The Beast. That's possible, too. The Beast sets up his own Fiat system. Or The Beast forcibly confiscates gold and silver and kills whoever has it, so people throw it in the street.
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abby normal
insert appropriate adjective here
The question I keep finding myself asking lately is, how will people barter with restrictions of movement?
I like to play a game called, if I were the bad guys. If I were the bad guys, I would have people terrified to go out and interact with others (pandemic) AND I would lock down everyone, enforcing it through very tight monitoring. I would rig the 5g towers to have the ability to shut down comms in small selected areas, then swoop in and round up the troublemakers. I might even rig those towers to act like electric fence grids, to keep the "cattle" confined.
I know it sounds crazy. It scares me a little that my brain is even thinking these things.
I like to play a game called, if I were the bad guys. If I were the bad guys, I would have people terrified to go out and interact with others (pandemic) AND I would lock down everyone, enforcing it through very tight monitoring. I would rig the 5g towers to have the ability to shut down comms in small selected areas, then swoop in and round up the troublemakers. I might even rig those towers to act like electric fence grids, to keep the "cattle" confined.
I know it sounds crazy. It scares me a little that my brain is even thinking these things.
hiwall
Has No Life - Lives on TB
If we were all sure that we could always buy or barter for all our needed supplies, there would never be a need to store those supplies, like food.
Uhhhh... don't carry your cell phone on you so they can't track you. Make sure the other parties do the same.
Last night we had a family discussion about the “coin shortage” signs everywhere. The conversation began because I was sitting there rolling change. My stepdaughter is 25, and has like most her age, really only known life with a debit card for store purchases and FRN’s for dealing with individuals.
She asked why do we have these coins, how did we use coins back then(pre-Y2K), and what if we go entirely digital. We shared some interesting anecdotes about a time when it was normal to go to a grocery or convenience store and wait in line ten minutes behind a person paying in change.
The conversation moved to digital currency and I think that’s what this is. This coin shortage is a manufactured slowdown to get them out of circulation. All fiat currency must be removed in a way that doesn’t trigger hoarding of coins.
The signs are there, literally. Yesterday I was at a large regional chain gas station and went in for a drink. They had a sign that if you paid cash, you would be given a store card with credit instead of money back. I thought how simple and logical it must appear to most.
Which brings me to PM’s. The vast majority under 50(I’m 48 btw) have no concept of the value of PM’s. When and not if we go cashless and FRN’s have zero value their will be no reason for PM’s to retain value among individuals. Yes, big banks and countries will have them in bulk, but smaller amounts in private hands will lose all apparent value.
I said apparent as I think we will have two economies. The “legal” digital, and a black market that will be massive. Silver bullion will be the way as it can be pegged to a dollar amount and be traded. One silver is worth $20 since there is no cash and $20 bills are a very common denomination people are comfortable with.
Most people aren’t going to trade gold PM’s. If you do get a few gold bullion, you won’t be able to use them. In the legal digital system, that’s a red flag. In the black market, any purchases like a used car where you could actually use gold, you’re red flashed when you do the title transfer.
She asked why do we have these coins, how did we use coins back then(pre-Y2K), and what if we go entirely digital. We shared some interesting anecdotes about a time when it was normal to go to a grocery or convenience store and wait in line ten minutes behind a person paying in change.
The conversation moved to digital currency and I think that’s what this is. This coin shortage is a manufactured slowdown to get them out of circulation. All fiat currency must be removed in a way that doesn’t trigger hoarding of coins.
The signs are there, literally. Yesterday I was at a large regional chain gas station and went in for a drink. They had a sign that if you paid cash, you would be given a store card with credit instead of money back. I thought how simple and logical it must appear to most.
Which brings me to PM’s. The vast majority under 50(I’m 48 btw) have no concept of the value of PM’s. When and not if we go cashless and FRN’s have zero value their will be no reason for PM’s to retain value among individuals. Yes, big banks and countries will have them in bulk, but smaller amounts in private hands will lose all apparent value.
I said apparent as I think we will have two economies. The “legal” digital, and a black market that will be massive. Silver bullion will be the way as it can be pegged to a dollar amount and be traded. One silver is worth $20 since there is no cash and $20 bills are a very common denomination people are comfortable with.
Most people aren’t going to trade gold PM’s. If you do get a few gold bullion, you won’t be able to use them. In the legal digital system, that’s a red flag. In the black market, any purchases like a used car where you could actually use gold, you’re red flashed when you do the title transfer.
abby normal
insert appropriate adjective here
Satellite technology has been able to track license plates since the 80s. Tracking technology is currently much more advanced, and that's just the tech we know about. I don't think there's any way we can evade it, though I'm open to ideas.
BassMan
Veteran Member
This is my “read” too, while TSHTF.
On the other side of TSHTF, I suspect PMs will hold much more value than fiat, but capital gains taxes will really suck.
Calhounshd
Veteran Member
As DD mentioned in post 52, when you buy or sell to a dealer he gets spot plus premium. So, sell only to friends or family.
A friend of mine in Florida owned a pawn shop (bought all my tools there) and a used car lot. He took a Harley in trade and a guy he knew saw it and stopped. He liked it, they bargained a bit and agreed on a price. The owner said OK but I have to have cash and one more thing, I hold the bike until the cash clears. Point is, you can't always trust people outside your circle. Plus,you can't trust people you don't know to not advertise the fact that you have PM's and might have more.
A friend of mine in Florida owned a pawn shop (bought all my tools there) and a used car lot. He took a Harley in trade and a guy he knew saw it and stopped. He liked it, they bargained a bit and agreed on a price. The owner said OK but I have to have cash and one more thing, I hold the bike until the cash clears. Point is, you can't always trust people outside your circle. Plus,you can't trust people you don't know to not advertise the fact that you have PM's and might have more.
TKO
Veteran Member
I am fully agreed with you. Gold gets scammed with dealers. You pay premium going in, and you'll pay a premium coming out of PMs. Always some scam with trying to sell. Perfect example...call Apmex...looking to sell silver maple leafs. They give a lowball price. Call Provident and they give a higher price. Call Apmex back and Apmex says, "OH, yours is .9999 instead of just .999." That kind of crap. The scams and premiums don't end in the coin game. SO, in the end it's money to buy things like suits or beef cows. Not money to trade for dollars.
TKO
Veteran Member
I went to BYU. I had professors in class tell us to start buying PMs when we could afford it. SO, I got married to another BYUer who had like minded profs there. My wife was on board that train. I bought my first gold coin when I was 22. I doubt you'd find such profs there these days. Back then, it was the old crowd of conservatives teaching.
It scares me a little that my brain is even thinking these things.
Dear heart, if you can think it, you can rest assured there are people out there who will DO it - and worse things you are likely not twisssted enough to even conceive.
I wish it were not so, but I would be lying to deny that it is.
Dear heart, if you can think it, you can rest assured there are people out there who will DO it - and worse things you are likely not twisssted enough to even conceive.
I wish it were not so, but I would be lying to deny that it is.
You're thinking about this from a "TS has not yet HTF" perspective. That skews your PoV. Anything, be it PMs, bullets, cigarettes, one's female children, etc, have exactly as much or as little intrinsic value as both parties bestow upon them. This is true for EVERY transaction in the world, every day, RIGHT NOW.
Let's say you want to buy a barrel of oil. The seller wants $50 in US FRNs. You only have Drachma. The seller doesn't want to take your Drachma. No deal.
Step back and look at the larger picture of COMMERCE. And I strongly suggest reading Atlas Shrugged as soon as you can possibly manage it.