DISASTER Reality vs Theory regarding disasters and prepping.

Not too sure if I can communicate this well, so please bear with me.

I have noticed in reality, when things go bad, there is no "golden period" where you can stock up a bit. This is where in the books they say, a disaster will be here in x days, so we have time to get what we need.

I have found that there is so little on the actual shelves that it only takes 3-4 people before any one item is cleared from the shelves. An example will be water. A hurricane is projected to hit x location and before the afternoon is over, the shelves are cleaned out. The ability to restock is always shown to be ongoing up to and including the moment the disaster strikes.

Reality strikes me different. We have no time to prepare before a disaster if one is projected. We have no ongoing stocking of materials that will allow us to improve our situation when a disaster is projected. You simply have what you have and that is it. Unless you get really really lucky.

So why do fiction books show time after time that the heroes are able to bet in last minute stocking, last minute travel, etc?

All of the authors claim they are giving reality to the stories and use their extensive backgrounds for backup.

Any ideas why they don't do a better job at describing the short period of time just before a disaster strikes?

It seems to me to a much better read and help those who really wish to prepare.

Normalcy bias abounds.

People are herd animals. So when one of them decides to stock up the whole herd tries to do the same thing. The result is few actually get anything. Some grab all of the couple things they think about but miss out on many items they never thought about needing until too late.
It is good this plandemic happened as it did. It woke up up many people about prepping. And it allowed many of those to see the holes in their preps without causing them real harm.
I sure hope everyone is now fully stocked for what is ahead of us.

20Gauge said:

So why do fiction books show time after time that the heroes are able to bet in last minute stocking, last minute travel, etc?

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Because the ones who write that way have no real experience. There are some books/films that describe the instant lock-up correctly.

bw said:

Because the ones who write that way have no real experience. There are some books/films that describe the instant lock-up correctly.

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not many it seems

20Gauge said:

So why do fiction books show time after time that the heroes are able to bet in last minute stocking, last minute travel, etc?

Any ideas why they don't do a better job at describing the short period of time just before a disaster strikes?

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Because it's more relatable to the average bone-head, and adds DRAMA to the story. If all the main characters had to do was lock the door and flip on the TV, because they had no worries... fully set up for Armageddon....what would there be to write about?

I will say that when 911 hit, I called my youngest son (still in high school, and the only kid still at home). I picked him up 20 minutes later (this was within 30 minutes of the second plane hitting). We hit the grocery, feed store, hardware store and liquor store- using a "SHTF list" I'd kept updated for years, and a stash of emergency cash set aside specifically for the purpose) and were back on the farm by noon.

Everywhere we went, people appeared to be in a state of shock. NO ONE we saw were stocking up... or even doing their routine shopping, for that matter. In our tiny rural town, it seemed every store had their front doors propped open and their radios on high volume... we could literally hear the news as we drove down Main street with our truck windows down.

I heard later that by late afternoon, the stores were a madhouse... being here, peopke were still polite and helpful, but it was like they get when a major blizzard is forecast. By then, though, we were safely home, our purchases put away and organized, and we were prepared for (highly unlikely) any unrest that might have developed.

But you're right... with a small exception of a VERY short window *immediately after* an event, which only the most alert *and* prepared (lists, cash and LUCK) will be able to take advantage of, those scenarios are highly unrealistic. Even worse, in my mind, are the ones where they go into a nearby city and "shop" empty stores... the current riots show what a joke that is!

Summerthyme

bw said:

Because the ones who write that way have no real experience. There are some books/films that describe the instant lock-up correctly.

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Real life is rarely as interesting or scary as it can be made in stories. That's why plot devices exist. Stop worrying about works of fiction and just take care of what you is yours to take care of. Works of fiction can make you think, they aren't necessarily written to make your act or be your road map.

summerthyme said:

I will say that when 911 hit, I called my youngest son (still in high school, and the only kid still at home). I picked him up 20 minutes later (this was within 30 minutes of the second plane hitting). We hit the grocery, feed store, hardware store and liquor store- using a "SHTF list" I'd kept updated for years, and a stash of emergency cash set aside specifically for the purpose) and were back on the farm by noon.

Everywhere we went, people appeared to be in a state of shock. NO ONE we saw were stocking up... or even doing their routine shopping, for that matter. In our tiny rural town, it seemed every store had their front doors propped open and their radios on high volume... we could literally hear the news as we drove down Main street with our truck windows down.

I heard later that by late afternoon, the stores were a madhouse... being here, peopke were still polite and helpful, but it was like they get when a major blizzard is forecast. By then, though, we were safely home, our purchases put away and organized, and we were prepared for (highly unlikely) any unrest that might have developed.

But you're right... with a small exception of a VERY short window *immediately after* an event, which only the most alert *and* prepared (lists, cash and LUCK) will be able to take advantage of, those scenarios are highly unrealistic. Even worse, in my mind, are the ones where they go into a nearby city and "shop" empty stores... the current riots show what a joke that is!

Summerthyme

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On 9/11, DD called from college & said, "Turn on your TV".
Within 15 minutes I was gassing up my car & topping off groceries. No one around me knew anything had happened.
Before I left I called DH (Mr. Normalcy Bias, changes routine for nothing & nobody) @ work, told him what happened, & suggested he gas up.
When he tried to gas up on his way home (evening) & couldn't believe stations were either out of gas or gouging people.

This is a "golden period".

I guess the period you are referring to is when you get to say put it on my cc, I'll never have to pay it.

That would be an interesting plot line. A story about all the times someone uses the cc for the mad dash and then life goes back to normal.

I believe that in the books/stories the protagonist is projected to have that insight, sixth sense, luck, to see the coming situation for what it is. Most "others in the novels, that I also have read and enjoyed, are too busy with their head in the food trough outside the slaughter house to realize something is wrong, until its too late.

On a personnel note, when Covid was ramping up, I was able to get to the local wallyworld and pick up several hundred dollars worth of additional would be nice to have items while they were still available.

I have a hard time reading stores where the main character(s) always seem to find the impossible stash with everything they could ever need to survive at just the right moment. The magic shopping cart if you will. Or they strip the countryside of all the food, supplies, solar panels, propane tanks, etc., etc., etc., and build a survival utopia Shangri-La. BORING!! I remember one story I just had to stop reading because the survival group disassembled one of those GIANT wind turbines and moved it to their hide out....yeah right!! Or they have a secret heads up to coming events and dash out ahead of the mobs and clear the shelves of every store insight before everyone else. Possible I suppose.

I've always wondered about people in the hurricane belt that always have to run out for supplies....hellooooo people these things happen EVERY DAMN YEAR!! You'd think they'd have figured that out and be totally stocked up and prepared instead of running out and panic buying.

We actually saw something like this happen recently with the Corona outbreak. What's even worse is that once the city and suburban stores were empty there was this TV news moron that was telling viewers to hit the rural markets as they still had supplies because of the small communities they supported. AND.....you guessed it! That's exactly what they did. The flatlanders arrived at our small mountain grocery store and nearly stripped it bare within a day or two. I watched a trio of ladies that piled their SUV chock full of bottled water, toilet paper and boxes of canned food etc., and I do mean CRAMMED FULL!! They could barely shut the back hatch.

On the other side of the equation, DW and I have always maintained what our kids called "mini Costco" since before Y2K. We have a Big Berkey water filter, a distilled water maker, stored bulk water and maintain both short term (months) and long term (years) worth of preps, canned, dried, dehydrated and so on, so our only immediate needs are fresh fruits and vegetables....until we get our garden, greenhouse, root cellar, and orchard built in our new place. If necessary we could shut our doors and settle in and not go out for a minimum of six months. With the recent addition of a years worth of freeze dried food we could extend that to at least a year to a year and a half.

Ah, fiction books are something called "fiction".
I can tell you one thing about fiction - everybody wants the hero to win. If things get too realistic the book will get poor reviews. People read fiction to be uplifted not to be brought way down low so they feel bad for the next two weeks.

Ted Wright wrote a book called The Complete Disaster Survival Manual. He dealt with a lot of different disaster preparedness but says we should prepare for an earthquake. If we are prepared for an earthquake then we are prepared right now. Unlike things that give us warning earthquakes give none. So he says prepare for an earthquake and then, if you are subject to floods add that to your preparations.

I recommend his book because he gives his reasoning for his recommendations.

Shadow

I decided on 14 Feb (thanks to this place) that this coronavirus thing was going to be an issue, and commenced specific preps. That's not fiction.

ShadowMan said:

I've always wondered about people in the hurricane belt that always have to run out for supplies....hellooooo people these things happen EVERY DAMN YEAR!! You'd think they'd have figured that out and be totally stocked up and prepared instead of running out and panic buying.

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All I can do is attest to our area. We seem to have the highest percentage of handicapped people in the world. Everyone seems to have a plate.

That being said, They actually think the stores will remain open despite the storm. This is a FACT! Though it may only apply to my area. The same applies to fast food locations. The general populace believes they are actually required by the government to stay open so people can eat.

When I say general populace, it is about 30-40% of the population, but a substantial amount.

The last close call we had, everything and I mean everything shut down for 5 days. The local radio station was flooded with people complaining about how the EVIL stores were shut down in violation of some unknown law. That they should be fined and people arrested for not being open.

You can not believe how many people are just not able to function outside of their basic routine. It constantly amazes me.

hiwall said:

Ah, fiction books are something called "fiction".
I can tell you one thing about fiction - everybody wants the hero to win. If things get too realistic the book will get poor reviews. People read fiction to be uplifted not to be brought way down low so they feel bad for the next two weeks.

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I can understand that. Though I look at them not only for entertainment, but for knowledge. I do realize there is a degree of suspension of belief. That doesn't excuse sloppy details.

Shadow said:

Ted Wright wrote a book called The Complete Disaster Survival Manual. He dealt with a lot of different disaster preparedness but says we should prepare for an earthquake. If we are prepared for an earthquake then we are prepared right now. Unlike things that give us warning earthquakes give none. So he says prepare for an earthquake and then, if you are subject to floods add that to your preparations.

I recommend his book because he gives his reasoning for his recommendations.

Shadow

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I spent decades in California. Yeah, that would be a good way to approach the situation. We actually used that when we began to prep. Though I did fail to take into account weather differences between the west and east coasts.

there are two kinds of emergency
the short term emergency - hurricane, tornado, earthquake.
most people, if they keep there head don't need to do much - more than nothing, less than a bunker
because it is going to pass in couple days, couple weeks. couple months.
and most problems can be solved with the liberal application of money.
or with a little bit of planning - an extra can of tuna, or pasta sauce or extra box of spaghetti.

We are in the other kind.

Dozdoats said:

I decided on 14 Feb (thanks to this place) that this coronavirus thing was going to be an issue, and commenced specific preps. That's not fiction.

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It was around that same date we pushed it up to high and made concerted efforts to get everything in our preps past ok.

Glad we did, even though we had what our plans called for plenty of masks, I got 3M N-65's for $20.00 per 10 including shipping on orders placed starting in mid Feb. Thought at the time I bought way to many, but between what we had and I bought, versus the use and give aways I'd loved to replenish. Can't find the 3M's we like at any price. We're still fine overall, but I'd love to get some more.

As far as the paw fiction stories, a lot of the older ones start with a premise that the heroes have been preppers and when the first disaster hits are only doing those last minute fill in trips. There are some that followed a time line much like the crisis we are still in.

In this current crisis, we really had from the middle of February though much of March to fill up needs. The first shortages we saw was in toilet paper and paper towels, which surprised me. But as soon as we recognized it was starting, we found extra. Might have been different brands, but we found it. By April it was just not available.

We are in a pause right now. Many (but not all) things are available if you work at it. Guns, ammo and other certain products just aren't. Heck, I've gotten "deals" on extra kerosene, lamp oil, wicks, frozen veggies for dehydrating, even a couple of deals on meat.

I've even seen some generators on special in the last couple of weeks that would make a good second or third option. Same with Chain saws, bar oil, and other oil products.

With all the uncertainty going on now and the high chances that it is going to get worse through the November elections, we set on target date for making use of the pause and be done with our current expediting plans by the end of August.

IMHO no matter who wins in November, the brown stuff is really going to hit the electric impeller at warp speed after the election.

I know I try to avoid the 'magic shopping cart'syndrome in what I write, or at least have some plausible reason for object x to be where its at. Sometimes I get a little carried away but at least I don't have the characters doing run and gun dashing and dodging with a 10,000 cubic inch pack filled with everything on their back. Most everything in mine I have, have laid hands on, or have friends with the items. As the saying goes, a hundred pounds of lightweight gear is still a hundred pounds of gear.

20Gauge said:

Not too sure if I can communicate this well, so please bear with me.

I have noticed in reality, when things go bad, there is no "golden period" where you can stock up a bit. This is where in the books they say, a disaster will be here in x days, so we have time to get what we need.

I have found that there is so little on the actual shelves that it only takes 3-4 people before any one item is cleared from the shelves. An example will be water. A hurricane is projected to hit x location and before the afternoon is over, the shelves are cleaned out. The ability to restock is always shown to be ongoing up to and including the moment the disaster strikes.

Reality strikes me different. We have no time to prepare before a disaster if one is projected. We have no ongoing stocking of materials that will allow us to improve our situation when a disaster is projected. You simply have what you have and that is it. Unless you get really really lucky.

So why do fiction books show time after time that the heroes are able to bet in last minute stocking, last minute travel, etc?

All of the authors claim they are giving reality to the stories and use their extensive backgrounds for backup.

Any ideas why they don't do a better job at describing the short period of time just before a disaster strikes?

It seems to me to a much better read and help those who really wish to prepare.

Click to expand...

Because it's fiction, not training manuals.

Because in fiction, the point is to amp up the danger/drama, to move the story along, and to keep the reader's eyes on the page. "Ohh, they're trying to get their critical necessities! Will they be able to???"


The only thing you may be able to acquire at the onset of a crisis are the things that are not immediate necessities, as most folks are going to be focused on the Bottled Water, Doritos, Beer and Milk. (I kid you not, I saw a guy with a basket loaded to the brim with just those type products...)

So maybe that electric fence controller you've been holding off on? Might still be on the shelf. A new tool set? Yep, might get lucky.

Beer, Chips and TP? SOL.

Good thread, 20Gauge.

20Gauge said:

All I can do is attest to our area. We seem to have the highest percentage of handicapped people in the world. Everyone seems to have a plate.

That being said, They actually think the stores will remain open despite the storm. This is a FACT! Though it may only apply to my area. The same applies to fast food locations. The general populace believes they are actually required by the government to stay open so people can eat.

When I say general populace, it is about 30-40% of the population, but a substantial amount.

The last close call we had, everything and I mean everything shut down for 5 days. The local radio station was flooded with people complaining about how the EVIL stores were shut down in violation of some unknown law. That they should be fined and people arrested for not being open.

You can not believe how many people are just not able to function outside of their basic routine. It constantly amazes me.

Click to expand...

I think it was George Carlin who said something like "think of the average dumb guy you know, and then realize that half of everybody is even dumber." (or something like that...)

Back when everything wasn't available in quantity via a short drive to the store and a swipe of the plastic, the basic routine would have been to plant, tend, put aside. This would have been the norm, and a big chunk of the population would have had the conditioning that hunger sucks, and you don't want to be hungry if possible. Been a long time since that's been the norm, at least in this country.

Today so many are conditioned that everything is available 24x7 (the CV has thrown a monkey wrench into that, though) and it's OK to want it now and reasonably expect it now.

Cognitive dissonance can be such a b**ch.

Tristan said:

Because it's fiction, not training manuals.

Because in fiction, the point is to amp up the danger/drama, to move the story along, and to keep the reader's eyes on the page. "Ohh, they're trying to get their critical necessities! Will they be able to???"


The only thing you may be able to acquire at the onset of a crisis are the things that are not immediate necessities, as most folks are going to be focused on the Bottled Water, Doritos, Beer and Milk. (I kid you not, I saw a guy with a basket loaded to the brim with just those type products...)

So maybe that electric fence controller you've been holding off on? Might still be on the shelf. A new tool set? Yep, might get lucky.

Beer, Chips and TP? SOL.

Good thread, 20Gauge.

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I do realize it is fiction and that has a part to the equation. It just annoys me that those who are "experts" seem to be unable to put forth a reasonable scenario that still has the bit of drama we all enjoy.

Yes, before the hurricanes we do "pleasure" food shopping. That usually includes things that don't last long or we seldom buy. Why not? We are stuck at home for who knows how long.

Thank you for the feed back. I do try to look at other sources than just "experts" as I have found that more often than not, "experts" are full of sh*t.

I have written and published over 50 doomer stories and I would be the first to say that I am far from being an "expert" on anything. My stories were quite popular and provided all our household income for several years. Many of my stories contained tid-bits of knowledge but they were all fiction books and did not reflect what reality would ever be. I wrote them to entertain. I wrote them to sell.
I did write one non-fiction book on prepping. It is my poorest seller.

Dozdoats said:

I decided on 14 Feb (thanks to this place) that this coronavirus thing was going to be an issue, and commenced specific preps. That's not fiction.

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Exactly! And that's reality, not fiction.

hiwall said:

I did write one non-fiction book on prepping. It is my poorest seller.

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I'm not surprised. Prepping is participatory rather than a spectator activity.

20Gauge said:

I do realize it is fiction and that has a part to the equation. It just annoys me that those who are "experts" seem to be unable to put forth a reasonable scenario that still has the bit of drama we all enjoy.

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I think Heinlein has a good scene in Farnham's Freehold when the protagonists are headed to the shelter and make a last stop at a store. Other than that, I can't think of any good ones.

It's hard to make somewhat mundane activities exciting for a reader. Even Stephen King skips over parts of a character's day.

Tristan said:

Today so many are conditioned that everything is available 24x7 (the CV has thrown a monkey wrench into that, though) and it's OK to want it now and reasonably expect it now.

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This is why the miminalist lifestyle where people shop for food nearly every day and keep very little in their tiny kitchens is highly problematic. One needs a deep pantry to weather storms like a pandemic.

20Gauge said:

I do realize it is fiction and that has a part to the equation. It just annoys me that those who are "experts" seem to be unable to put forth a reasonable scenario that still has the bit of drama we all enjoy.

Yes, before the hurricanes we do "pleasure" food shopping. That usually includes things that don't last long or we seldom buy. Why not? We are stuck at home for who knows how long.

Thank you for the feed back. I do try to look at other sources than just "experts" as I have found that more often than not, "experts" are full of sh*t.

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I've got no problem with people picking up the 'Pleasure' foods they enjoy, especially ahead of the problem. Lobster, Ribeyes, Red Wine or top of the line Beer, oh yeah! It's just I've seen the same pattern emerge of folks who think stocking up for an emergency involves frozen Pizza, chips and beer.

Maybe that constitutes their regular diet, and "eat what you store, store what you eat" is their mantra!

Literally, in my neighborhood, was a couple who in advance of the Hurricane decided to stock up (good!) on frozen food (not so good!). Lost most of it, IIRC.

Agreed, there's a whole bunch of 'Experts' who ain't nearly as expert as they claim.

Whether they do it knowingly, or they simply can't judge their own competencies because they're too close to the problem, who knows.

I notice that a bunch of 'em work in Govt.

Dozdoats said:

I decided on 14 Feb (thanks to this place) that this coronavirus thing was going to be an issue, and commenced specific preps. That's not fiction.

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Around when they locked down Wuhan, I started stocking up. I’m in HD, get a few masks and some Clorox wipes. Progress soup, 99c a can. Emptied the change jar, buy 44 cans. Bought 20 pounds of bread flour. Maybe 200 pounds of rice & beans. Already had an extra 30 rolls TP. Got a couple of cases of water. Check on meds. Rather lightweight compared to others here.

Profit of Doom said:

Around when they locked down Wuhan, I started stocking up. I’m in HD, get a few masks and some Clorox wipes. Progress soup, 99c a can. Emptied the change jar, buy 44 cans. Bought 20 pounds of bread flour. Maybe 200 pounds of rice & beans. Already had an extra 30 rolls TP. Got a couple of cases of water. Check on meds. Rather lightweight compared to others here.

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Personally, I don't think it matters much how your preps measure compared to others on here...

What matters is if you're good with it. You're good? Then it's good.

I hope, and suspect, a whole lot of folks moved up a notch or two on preps due to this virus. I also expect more to follow suit very soon, and then the world is going to prove the wisdom in such actions. It will also expose all those who didn't............link cards won't work, camps will be established, people rounded up,lots of bullets fly.....

Now I sometimes stand in our storage room and just look at all the shelves and smile.

Tristan said:

Personally, I don't think it matters much how your preps measure compared to others on here...

What matters is if you're good with it. You're good? Then it's good.

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I have had only a little trouble getting water and TP from Costco and that is over now. Couple of months there was a problem getting the ice cream we wanted. Had to get used to fast food closing earlier that expected, as my wife sleeps very late and there were times it was after 8:00 before we thought about food. By then I have no interest in cooking, and we had few choices left to go to. We use a generic allergy medicine from Walmart, the “Mexico Pills”, had to scramble through four stores to get some, that’s over now. Coated Excedrin is impossible to find.
We haven’t had to dip into preps as far as food. I go shopping a couple of times a week. The most inconvenience is going for medical. Appts are telephone or video, it takes a bit of arm twisting to be seen in person, but we make it happen.
We don’t go anywhere vacation-wise or restaurants, so we’re making do.

Ractivist said:

I hope, and suspect, a whole lot of folks moved up a notch or two on preps due to this virus. I also expect more to follow suit very soon, and then the world is going to prove the wisdom in such actions. It will also expose all those who didn't............link cards won't work, camps will be established, people rounded up,lots of bullets fly.....

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...and a good time was had by all...

you really have to realize two things
Number one: There are going to be people that do not prepare. And when they run out of something, anything, that they fix in their mind that they must have, they will steal it.
Number two: You cannot think of everything you will need and have preps for it so you will at some point become that guy in Number One:

When i first started to prep so many years ago,i had this thought.If the last time i went to the store was indeed the last time i went to the store,and then set about to plan what it would take to keep us alive,had two teens at home then.I then made lists of what it would take to make my life as easy as possible.After 43 years i am closer,but not done yet.I don't foresee any time that i am alive that i will be finished.

Dozdoats said:

I decided on 14 Feb (thanks to this place) that this coronavirus thing was going to be an issue, and commenced specific preps. That's not fiction.

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I made financial moves jan 18 anticipating a correction and possible crash, and bought tp and other supplies from amazon feb 27 according to my order history

I would say that there was a golden period, if only people would recognize it.


Hint: your in another golden period rfn

20Gauge said:

I do realize it is fiction and that has a part to the equation. It just annoys me that those who are "experts" seem to be unable to put forth a reasonable scenario that still has the bit of drama we all enjoy.

Yes, before the hurricanes we do "pleasure" food shopping. That usually includes things that don't last long or we seldom buy. Why not? We are stuck at home for who knows how long.

Thank you for the feed back. I do try to look at other sources than just "experts" as I have found that more often than not, "experts" are full of sh*t.

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I think it would be good if the fiction had embedded 'good info' in certain genres. I recall a book by Dean Eng called 'Pulling Through' which the Author explicitly attempted to tell a good tale, but also convey good info at the same time.

I don't recall if it had a 'Last Run to the Grocery Store' section, though.