CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

summerthyme

Administrator
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Wow this is real. I thought it was a fake when I saw it previously

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California - More than a 1000 recent travellers in L.A. told to self isolate for 14 days
Today, 02:41 PM

more than a 1000 recent travellers told to self isolate for 14 days

#Coronavirus update: More deaths overnight in China and Los Angeles county telling more than 1000 people to self-quarantine after travelling to China recently. video https://mobile.twitter.com/fukushima...183953410?s=12

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1227657572183953410
Channel 4 News in LA

CSI:WORLD
tiphat.gif
Treyfish's H5N1 Pandemic Information News
Any guesses as to the percentage who will take this seriously and actually, literally, self quarantine? Especially in LA... the self-centered, liberal capital of the universe!?

Summerthyme
 

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Question regarding comments about your fish...( :) ).... don’t you still need a Rx for these? I went to one of the online sites , recommended here, to order a supply, then saw Rx must be scanned from your doctor to order.

How does that work? Do you just ask your Dr for some Rx in advance? Most doctors wouldn’t do that !, I thought(?)
 

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Gee, there was an expedition to the Arctic some decades ago to disinter Eskimo corpses in permafrost to find the Spanish Flu virus. Silly people, they could have found it in Kansas City.

In 1958, the Corps of Engineers was moving cemeteries before flooding from a dam. One cemetery had the record of small pox burials. They took no chances. I was told the crew was in rubber uniforms with some sort of respirator.

At the end of the day, they took a shower of disinfectant with the uniform still on. After taking off the uniforms, they took another shower.

The bodies were placed in sealed rubber bags as far as I remember.

Maybe that was it!!! Two strokes an' a seizure have scrambled ma brains a bit... That's wi' tongue in cheek, o' course... Thanks fer the remind, Troke! Greatly appreciated... Whys ah heard it, samples went ta th' military labs... 'Course, I'd be lots happier, if'n I knew one way or t'other... Not knowin' is drivin' me crackers... Again, thanks, Troke... Ta quote Dan Quayle, "A mind is a terrible thing ta waste..." Er, somethin' like that...

OA
 

Allotrope

Inactive
US dependence on China for drug ingredients ‘hinders coronavirus response’

Gottlieb said the contagion had exposed “a critical choke point in the supply chain for pharmaceuticals”
Yeah, like opening a window exposes you to the other side. You could see it all along but now you are exposed. They choose their words carefully.

In the US we still have some pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity so in a long term emergency, common medications like antibiotics and others can be produced but expect a lot of shortages of less common or infrequently used drugs and OTC drugs. I would also expect major shortages of vetrinary drugs and other vetrinary supplies if Asia goes offline for an extended period. There are also many shuttered pharma plants that closed due to cheaper production elsewhere that could be restarted relatively quickly in a national emergency.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
Any guesses as to the percentage who will take this seriously and actually, literally, self quarantine? Especially in LA... the self-centered, liberal capital of the universe!?

About three percent. Four if we're lucky. This has futile written all over it.
 

Kris Gandillon

The Other Curmudgeon
_______________
from yahoo:
[link to ca.news.yahoo.com (secure)]

snippet:
What is the new coronavirus’ estimated case-fatality rate?

Case-fatality rates measure the number of deaths from a certain disease as a percentage of the total amount of patients.

Based on available data, the Imperial scientists estimate the case-fatality rate in the province Hubei - of which Wuhan is capital - as 18%.

They note the “credible interval” ranges from 11% up to 81%.


That's why they've been hiding numbers. 18% dead?!
godlikeproductions is on the proscribed sites list. This post will be deleted shortly.
 

mudlogger

Veteran Member
Question regarding comments about your fish...( :) ).... don’t you still need a Rx for these? I went to one of the online sites , recommended here, to order a supply, then saw Rx must be scanned from your doctor to order.

How does that work? Do you just ask your Dr for some Rx in advance? Most doctors wouldn’t do that !, I thought(?)
These guys don't ask for an rx. When I order from alldaychemist.com, I just leave all that blank except for the allergy questions.

Kraft Drug – Your source for fish antibiotics
 

Ractivist

Pride comes before the fall.....Pride month ended.
It is still nonsense.

First, you don't change the definition of dead. That is a relatively simple diagnosis. Daily rate is up over 100% since yesterday. Either the vast majority of people today were infected approximately 13 days ago or they will need to come up with a reason.

Yes, you need to go back and recalculate it.
I chuckle, tell a tranny about simple definitions of male female.
 

Allotrope

Inactive
Question regarding comments about your fish...( :) ).... don’t you still need a Rx for these? I went to one of the online sites , recommended here, to order a supply, then saw Rx must be scanned from your doctor to order.

How does that work? Do you just ask your Dr for some Rx in advance? Most doctors wouldn’t do that !, I thought(?)

Antibiotics labeled for fish or bird only require nothing except to pay for them. Chewey and many others sell them. You can get amoxicillin, cephlexin , and many others as well as fungal and other meds. Prescriptions are not needed for FishMox and others. Prescriptions are needed for things labeled for cats or dogs.
 
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bw

Fringe Ranger
Antibiotics labeled for fish or bird only require nothing except to pay for them. Chewey and many others sell them. You can get amoxicillin, cephlexin , and many others as well as fungal and other meds. Prescriptions are not needed for FishMox and others. Perscriptions are needed for things labeled for cats or dogs.

When I die I'm gonna come back as a fish. Less paperwork.
 

#1 oldskool

"You finally really did it. You maniacs!
Not to derail....but years ago, here at TB200, there was a thread which concerned itself with what particular antibiotic was most useful for any given bacteria. I am unable to find any info using search. Does anyone have that information?! Thanx in advance !
 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB
I have an exercise for you all. Let me know if you come up with the same conclusion, or something else. It isn't an easy or nice exercise, but I think it is realistic if there is, say a 10% fatality rate of this virus or any virus across the world without any genetic predisposition for race or gender.

First, I hope this doesn't happen, but if it did, I think the overall effect would be less than we think economically, though no less traumatic emotionally.

Go for a walk around your neighborhood, maybe at dusk if you live in a rural area so that you can see more of the homes hidden in the daytime by foliage/trees. Lit houses are easier to count. Assuming an equal number of people in each home, mentally erase every tenth home. That would be a 10% fatality rate.

That means nine out of ten homes are still there, and still occupied. Lots of people still left, aren't there. Most likely, the more elderly and those with pre-existing conditions, especially those who require a fair amount of drugs, oxygen and procedures to maintain life will leave us, and the more healthy and capable will survive.

This will be a traumatic event. Everyone will have to deal with death in their social circle of friends and family. Emotionally, it will be devastating. But economically? We'll still survive as a society and as a country when it is all said and done.

Life will be quite different. But there will be life. And we will survive.

What say you? Any thoughts?
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
U.S. Northern Command is executing plans to prepare for a potential pandemic of the novel coronavirus, now called COVID19, according to Navy and Marine Corps service-wide messages issued this week.

An executive order issued by the Joint Staff and approved by Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month directed Northern Command and geographic combatant commanders to initiate pandemic plans, which include ordering commanders to prepare for widespread outbreaks and confining service members with a history of travel to China.

The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.

The document serves as the Pentagon’s blueprint for plan

[link to www.militarytimes.com (secure)]

from yahoo:
[link to ca.news.yahoo.com (secure)]

snippet:
What is the new coronavirus’ estimated case-fatality rate?

Case-fatality rates measure the number of deaths from a certain disease as a percentage of the total amount of patients.

Based on available data, the Imperial scientists estimate the case-fatality rate in the province Hubei - of which Wuhan is capital - as 18%.

They note the “credible interval” ranges from 11% up to 81%.


That's why they've been hiding numbers. 18% dead?!

Your links keep going to God Like Productions... Do you have direct links?
 

Jubilee on Earth

Veteran Member
Question regarding comments about your fish...( :) ).... don’t you still need a Rx for these? I went to one of the online sites , recommended here, to order a supply, then saw Rx must be scanned from your doctor to order.

How does that work? Do you just ask your Dr for some Rx in advance? Most doctors wouldn’t do that !, I thought(?)

Doesn't matter what the doc writes. If you have insurance, in most cases they won’t approve more than 30 days. Instead, we stocked up by removing our insurance and using GoodRx coupons instead. We now have a 90 day supply. If you don’t have insurance, you can refill whatever you want based on your script.

EDITED: totally missed the whole “fish” thing. I thought you were just talking about extra meds. Don’t mind me. I'm brain fried.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Original pneumonia will be viral, you are correct, but it is not uncommon (it has happened to me) for lungs already deep in a viral infection to catch a bacterial one ON TOP OF the original virus.

Also, it is not uncommon for someone to catch bacterial pneumonia AFTER they recover from the viral version but their lungs are still weak and they catch a bacterial strain.

So this would a secondary condition, which is another reason for NOT using antibiotics unless the person tests positive for a bacterial infection too and/or is in serious danger/has a history of getting them.

In a rationing situation,I'm betting only people who test positive for secondary bacterial infections will get antibiotics and mostly thta will be inside of hospitals.

All of us old farts with artificial knees and hips cannot risk a bacterial infection, so it would be administered preventively. (Although antibiotics are made in China and would likely be unavailable.) For knees, if it gets infected, they have to reopen the knee, take out the artificial part, leave the incision open until the infection is cleared then reinstall. Nasty business that takes a long time to heal.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
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If naturally evolving Spanish Flu survived in soil in a cemetery for years, why couldn't this new lab grown hopped up NcoV survive for a few weeks on packaging coming from overseas? It is things like your post OA, that make me want to be more certain of this bug's traits before I just throw the mail on the counter and think all is well.

This is just one of the things the Smart People could be telling us- but they aren't. We just keep hearing about how it can't live on surfaces very long.
I think a dedicated Rubbermaid type containers, with any deficiencies regarding airtightness addressed with duct tape, etc (I think they changed them after a tragedy or two involving sturdy, airtight containers and kids who couldn't get the lid back off), might turn out to be the trendy, new, fashionable doorside mail receptacle. Which side of the door- indoors or out- depends on your level of concern and the type neighborhood in which you reside.

Wear gloves, mask and goggles, and carry a Lysol wipe to the mailbox. Wipe down the latch or door of the box. Open it... grab the mail, using the Lysol wipe if possible. Carry the mail to the house, and scan the letters as you carefully (avoid stirring up lots of air movement) place them into the box. Make a mental note (or be dictating to someone inside the house, or a small digital recorder) of any envelopes which may be fine sensitive. Spray Lysol (or an equivalent, PROVEN, antiviral spray... this isn't the place for some combi action of essential oils you read about on the internet! On the other hand, if you have a spray (or UV Light to, or ozone generstor) you KNOW will work... use it!) over the surface of the mail. Close the container. Half an hour later, go back, (gloves, masks and goggles, again) *gently* turn the envelopes over and spray again.

Doff the protective gear in a way that won't spread any potential virus

Give it all 20 hours or so, then open the mail, respond if possible or necessary, then put "junk" in a sealed Rubbermaid container (or directly into a burning burn barrel) for future disposal. The "keeper" mail pieces will have to be put into a third container.

Anyone worried about bring bored in a full-blown pandemic situation hasn't thought through the logistics!

Summerthyme
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Last night, on this here forum, t'was mentioned- 42 DAYS! Now ya wanna play Ruski roulette, go right a head... Some o' us ain't got a choice, but WHEN TSHTF, I ain't gonna push what little luck I gots left...

OA
I think the real issue with the 42 days is that there is likely a re-infection going on, which brings into question whether a mild case provides immunity, or are you vulnerable to reinfection.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
Indeed... Was it intended ta be national/racial suicide, or an act o' war that was heretofore unknown? Ya choose... Ma mind is overloadin', an' I ain't had no sleep in 48 hours...

OA
I suggest you step away from the computer and do something relaxing and then get a good sleep. You make yourself more vulnerable to illness if you don't take care of yourself physically and mentally, OA
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
Your links keep going to God Like Productions... Do you have direct links?

here are direct links, you have to go a few steps more to find them but I'll spare you;) :


 

Chance

Veteran Member
S
The Wall Street Journal‏Verified account @WSJ 39m39 minutes ago

“It looks like they dragged their feet.” Public-health officials question why the World Health Organization didn’t move faster to declare a coronavirus emergency.
So why didn't these 'public-health officials' declare their own emergency...they don't have to wait for WHO to protect their own countries/people! WHO is pretty worthless, anyway.
 
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rondaben

Veteran Member
Not to derail....but years ago, here at TB200, there was a thread which concerned itself with what particular antibiotic was most useful for any given bacteria. I am unable to find any info using search. Does anyone have that information?! Thanx in advance !

I like to use epocrates. Tells you anything you need to know for medication, dosages. Good resource.


App is excellent. Highly recommend it.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
EndGameWW3‏ @EndGameWW3 now27 seconds ago

Coronavirus test kits sent to states are flawed, C.D.C. says

BREAKING- WSJ reports that some of the 200 coronavirus test kits developed by CDC and shipped to U.S. and international laboratories may not work properly. Some #COVID19 tests may give "inconclusive" results. CDC says new ingredients shipped to labs.

(fair use applies)

Coronavirus test may be FLAWED: Kits shipped all over the US may come back 'inconclusive' CDC reveal after the agency mistakenly said the 13th American patient was negative
By Afp and Natalie Rahhal Acting Us Health Editor
Published: 16:01 EST, 12 February 2020 | Updated: 19:02 EST, 12 February 2020

  • CDC shipped more than 100 coronavirus test kits to labs across the US
  • In quality assurance tests, some of the kits returned 'inconclusive' results
  • They have not been used to screen any suspected victims of coronavirus
  • CDC official Dr Nancy Messonnier says the agency believes a faulty reagent is to blame
  • They are remanufacturing the component to provide a working replacement
  • For now, CDC in Georgia will run all tests on samples
  • The 13th American patient with coronavirus was initially dismissed as negative for the virus, but Dr Messonier says that was an unrelated issue
A number of test kits sent out by US health authorities to labs across the country to diagnose the deadly novel coronavirus are faulty, a senior official said Wednesday.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began shipping 200 test kids nationwide on February 5 to speed up the diagnosis of US cases of COVID-19, which currently number 13.

But the labs reported that while performing a verification procedure they realized the kits were returning inconclusive results, meaning neither positive nor negative, said senior CDC official Nancy Messonnier.

Now, the CDC is remaking the component they believe to be at fault, a setback for the long-awaited tests meant to cut down wait times for test results.

It comes just a day after the CDC admitted that it originally sent the 13th American with coronavirus back to quarantine after initially thinking they had tested negative - although Dr Messonnier says that the issues are unrelated.

In quality assurance tests, some labs are reporting that the screening kit is returning inconclusive results on cell samples that should come back positive or negative.

These tests, Dr Messonnier said, have not yet been used to screen actual patient samples, so they have not created any such issues.

In California, officials initially believed that the Wuhan evacuee, now identified as a woman, had been tested, with negative results, and was thus sent back to quarantine on Marine Corps Station Miramar (MCS Miramar).

However, the woman's sample had not actually been tested yet, due to what Dr Messonnier chocked up to a labeling issue.

'It isn't that someone else was falsely identified as positive, it was that [the test] wasn't initially run,' she said.

'The mishap was unfortunate but it was corrected from happening again in the future by adding additional quality control.'

When the patient's sample was actually run, she was quickly identified as positive for coronavirus and brought back to the hospital at UC San Diego for treatment.

In the meantime, Dr Messonnier says that infection control precautions were taken. A second person was also transported to the hospital for testing.

Separately, the CDC is now working to get a new batch of test kits - or at least replacements for the component they think is defective - reissued to more than 100 authorized labs across the US.

'We're looking into what's wrong...We think that the issue at the stage, can be explained by one reagent that isn't performing as it should, consistently,' she said, referring to one the substances used in the kit.

'And that's why we are remanufacturing that reagent.'

For now, the testing of all patient specimens will continue to be carried out at the CDC's headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia.

'Speed is important, but equally or more important in this situation is making sure lab results are correct,' said Dr Messonnier.

The US is shipping the test kit to 36 countries that have placed orders, and each kit can be used approximately 700 to 800 times.
 

Texican

Live Free & Die Free.... God Freedom Country....
This will be a traumatic event. Everyone will have to deal with death in their social circle of friends and family. Emotionally, it will be devastating. But economically? We'll still survive as a society and as a country when it is all said and done.

Life will be quite different. But there will be life. And we will survive.

What say you? Any thoughts?

Pc,

There will be a considerable number of the population that may have survived the virus, but will not be able to do much for an extended period of time and the virus will take individuals for different families which will also generate it's own problems with those that survived....

Each nation will recover slowly and many not at all....

Texican....
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
“It looks like they dragged their feet.” Public-health officials question why the World Health Organization didn’t move faster to declare a coronavirus emergency.
Because they care more about politics, money, and power, then people
[/QUOTE]
I understand this was due to Chinese pressure. The high mucky mucks of the WHO are political animals. China has pushed hard to gain influence all over the world and project an image. The WHO did not want to cause economic disruptions to Chinese travel and trade and taint that image. China contributes a lot to the WHO.

Note, Canada continued to allow Chinese to travel into Canada. China has praised Canada for this. (But held up the evacuation of their citizens.) The US shut down people who had traveled to Wuhan (and now, I believe, China.) Now China won't let our scientists and medical people in to help.

The Pakistanis and the Africans still have no restrictions except quarantine if there is a fever.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
I see the articles weren't posted in their entirety. Here they are:

(fair use applies)

US military prepping for coronavirus pandemic
Patricia Kime
1 hr ago

U.S. Northern Command is executing plans to prepare for a potential pandemic of the novel coronavirus, now called COVID19, according to Navy and Marine Corps service-wide messages issued this week.

An executive order issued by the Joint Staff and approved by Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month directed Northern Command and geographic combatant commanders to initiate pandemic plans, which include ordering commanders to prepare for widespread outbreaks and confining service members with a history of travel to China.

The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.

The document serves as the Pentagon’s blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases.

U.S. Northern Command said Wednesday it was directed the Joint Staff Feb. 1 to commence “prudent planning” in their assigned role synchronizing the department’s plans for pandemic flu and disease.

“We coordinate with other combatant commands to assess potential impacts in the event of a pandemic and we ensure the U.S. military is poised to respond as required,” said Northern Command in a statement emailed to Military Times. “The military profession fosters a culture of planning, and the fact that we are coordinating planning efforts across the geographical combatant commands is consistent with how we prepare to respond, if directed.”

According to the Marine Corps message MARADMIN 082/20, commanders are to review their disease containment plans and take “preparatory and precautionary actions” to protect service members, installations and ships.

This includes ensuring that the plans contain procedures for “response, isolation, quarantine, restriction of movement and community based intervention” as well as developing measures to contain and treat those possibly exposed.

The Marine Corps’ mission, according to the message, is to “prepare for potential outbreaks of [COVID19].” The service must “mitigate, respond, and recover from the effects in order to maintain force readiness.”

COVID19, the flu-like virus that originated in Wuhan, China, is now responsible for killing more than 1,100 people and sickening at least 45,000. While the rate of new cases has fallen in the past several days in Wuhan and Hubei province, the death toll continues to climb, topping more than 100 in a single day Monday in China.

The number of cases in the U.S. remains at 13.

DoD 3551-13 calls for preparing for a pandemic and ensuring open lines of communication in the community, diseases surveillance and detection, response and containment.

According to the service messages, military commanders have been asked to confine any service member who has been to China since Feb. 2 to their residences or, if they live in an open barracks or share a bathroom with others, restrict them to a temporary lodging facility for 14 days.

The restricted service members will be assessed daily for fever by medical personnel by phone or in person and wear protective gear if they personally conduct the medical checks, according to the messages. Should they display symptoms, they must seek medical attention, but call their military treatment facility first to inform them of their travel.

The Marine Corps message advises civilian employees and contractors, as well as any family members returning from China, to follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance to detect the virus and prevent its spread, which include voluntarily remaining at home, limiting close contact with people and animals, self-monitoring and seeking medical care if symptoms develop.

The Navy has included visits to Hong Kong and Macau as part of its directive and gives commanders the flexibility to decide whether they need to confine a service member who has had close contact with a person who has traveled to the region.

The Marine Corps also has told commanders to work with military treatment facilities on developing and executing any response and stay up-to-date on CDC guidance regarding the virus.

The Army issued a service-wide message Jan. 31 on the coronavirus advising its members on the illness’s symptoms and instructing them on reducing their risk of catching the infection. The message was issued the same day the Pentagon released an advisory about how service members can reduce the risk of catching the disease.

It does not publicly release its service-wide messages and has not issued any since the executive order.

The Air Force does not publicly disclose its service-wide messages.

Since the outbreak began in late December, individual commands, especially those in Asia, have enforced confinement of service members with a travel history to China. Earlier this month, U.S. Forces Korea began confining troops who had traveled to China for 14 days.

Also earlier this month, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command restricted all Defense Department travel to mainland China and recalled all travelers to the country home.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said Monday that the likelihood of more cases being diagnosed in the U.S. of COVID19 is high, but added that the chance of contracting the disease outside China remains low.

She said the biggest infectious disease threat to the American public this year remains the influenza virus, which has sickened more than 22 million and killed at least 12,000.

Precautions against the coronavirus, which include hand-washing, staying home if ill and sneezing or coughing into a tissue or sleeve, also cut down on flu transmission.

“We are taking all appropriate precautionary measures to prevent any potential spread of the virus,” U.S. Forces Korea commander Army Gen. Robert Abrams Feb. 2. “Key for everyone is to follow standard hygiene protocols, and if not feeling well — get screened ASAP!”
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
This is the second article:

(fair use applies)

Coronavirus’ ‘case-fatality rate’ could range from 1% up to 18%
Alexandra Thompson
February 10, 2020

The coronavirus’ “case-fatality rate” could range from 1% up to 18%, research suggests.

Since the previously unknown strain emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan at the end of last year, it has crossed national borders into at least 27 countries.

More than 40,500 cases have arisen globally, of which 40,195 are in mainland China, according to John Hopkins University.

The UK has eight confirmed cases.

The death toll reached 908 on Monday, up from 636 the previous Friday.

With more people succumbing to the infection, scientists from Imperial College London set out to uncover what percentage of the infected are dying.

What is the new coronavirus’ estimated case-fatality rate?

Case-fatality rates measure the number of deaths from a certain disease as a percentage of the total amount of patients.

Based on available data, the Imperial scientists estimate the case-fatality rate in the province Hubei - of which Wuhan is capital - as 18%.

They note the “credible interval” ranges from 11% up to 81%.

Among “travellers outside mainland China”, the case-fatality rate is estimated at between 1.2% and 5.6%, with “substantial uncertainty”.

Taking into account both asymptomatic and symptomatic incidences, the scientists calculated the likely overall case-fatality rate to be around 1%.

This was based on the testing of passengers on “repatriation flights” between Japan and Germany early on in the epidemic or from cases reported outside mainland China.

They note differences between countries comes down to “the sensitivity of surveillance systems”.

The scientists stress “all estimates should be viewed cautiously” given the “deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear”.

Scientists from the University of Hong Kong previously gauged more than 75,000 people could have battled coronavirus in Wuhan alone.

Experts have warned patient data is based on hospital cases, which are by definition severe.

There may well be milder cases in the community that never get spotted.

“During an evolving outbreak, there will be many more people with mild symptoms, not requiring any medical intervention,” said Dr Bharat Pankhania from the University of Exeter.

“These people will also be unlikely to go to their doctors.

“Thus, mild illness or illness with minimal symptoms, lack of doctors and lack of resources to go to the doctor could all add up to the true extent of the number of people infected being significantly higher than current estimates.”

He added: “There is a concern around countries with underdeveloped healthcare systems.

“With larger numbers of people infected, there will be considerable circulation of the virus and potential to infect many more people.

“These countries have poor healthcare facilities, and minimal facilities for testing and centrally recoding data, which could mean a gross underestimate of the number of people infected.”

The new coronavirus has been confirmed in Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and Cambodia.

The Imperial scientists also stress it can take up to three weeks for a patient to develop symptoms, be diagnosed and “the final clinical outcome” to be observed.

All this can skew estimates of the case-fatality rate.

“This is reminiscent of the 2009-nH1N1 influenza strain [bird flu], where initial estimates were also much higher than the now more established less than 0.1% [fatality] rate overall,” said Professor Martin Hibberd from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

“It is worth noting though, despite this apparently low fatality rate for 2009-nH1N1, this pandemic caused serious additional problems (compared with typical seasonal influenzas) to healthcare systems worldwide, showing why governments have placed such importance on this new coronavirus virus even as the case fatality rate drops.”
 

Carl2

Pass it forward...
Your links keep going to God Like Productions... Do you have direct links?
Found it:
Coronavirus’ ‘case-fatality rate’ could range from 1% up to 18%
Alexandra Thompson
Yahoo Style UKFebruary 10, 2020
The coronavirus’ “case-fatality rate” could range from 1% up to 18%, research suggests.
Since the previously unknown strain emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan at the end of last year, it has crossed national borders into at least 27 countries.
More than 40,500 cases have arisen globally, of which 40,195 are in mainland China, according to John Hopkins University.
Read more: Coronavirus cases may ease in summer before re-emerging in winter, experts say
The UK has eight confirmed cases.
The death toll reached 908 on Monday, up from 636 the previous Friday.
With more people succumbing to the infection, scientists from Imperial College London set out to uncover what percentage of the infected are dying.
What is the new coronavirus’ estimated case-fatality rate?
Case-fatality rates measure the number of deaths from a certain disease as a percentage of the total amount of patients.
Based on available data, the Imperial scientists estimate the case-fatality rate in the province Hubei - of which Wuhan is capital - as 18%.
They note the “credible interval” ranges from 11% up to 81%.
Among “travellers outside mainland China”, the case-fatality rate is estimated at between 1.2% and 5.6%, with “substantial uncertainty”.
Taking into account both asymptomatic and symptomatic incidences, the scientists calculated the likely overall case-fatality rate to be around 1%.
Read more: Coronavirus cannot be cured by drinking 'garlic water', experts say
This was based on the testing of passengers on “repatriation flights” between Japan and Germany early on in the epidemic or from cases reported outside mainland China.
They note differences between countries comes down to “the sensitivity of surveillance systems”.
The scientists stress “all estimates should be viewed cautiously” given the “deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear”.
Scientists from the University of Hong Kong previously gauged more than 75,000 people could have battled coronavirus in Wuhan alone.
Experts have warned patient data is based on hospital cases, which are by definition severe.
There may well be milder cases in the community that never get spotted.
“During an evolving outbreak, there will be many more people with mild symptoms, not requiring any medical intervention,” said Dr Bharat Pankhania from the University of Exeter.
“These people will also be unlikely to go to their doctors.
“Thus, mild illness or illness with minimal symptoms, lack of doctors and lack of resources to go to the doctor could all add up to the true extent of the number of people infected being significantly higher than current estimates.”
He added: “There is a concern around countries with underdeveloped healthcare systems.
“With larger numbers of people infected, there will be considerable circulation of the virus and potential to infect many more people.
“These countries have poor healthcare facilities, and minimal facilities for testing and centrally recoding data, which could mean a gross underestimate of the number of people infected.”
The new coronavirus has been confirmed in Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and Cambodia.
The Imperial scientists also stress it can take up to three weeks for a patient to develop symptoms, be diagnosed and “the final clinical outcome” to be observed.
All this can skew estimates of the case-fatality rate.
“This is reminiscent of the 2009-nH1N1 influenza strain [bird flu], where initial estimates were also much higher than the now more established less than 0.1% [fatality] rate overall,” said Professor Martin Hibberd from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
“It is worth noting though, despite this apparently low fatality rate for 2009-nH1N1, this pandemic caused serious additional problems (compared with typical seasonal influenzas) to healthcare systems worldwide, showing why governments have placed such importance on this new coronavirus virus even as the case fatality rate drops.”
What is the new coronavirus?
Coronaviruses are a class of pathogens, which cause everything from the common cold to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak that killed 774 people in 2004.
Six strains are known to infect humans, with the new virus - 2019-nCoV - being the seventh.
Authorities were famously tight-lipped about Sars, not informing the World Health Organization until 11 February, when 305 cases - and five deaths - had occurred across six districts in the province Guangdong.
By 21 March, suspected and probable cases reached 350 - including 10 deaths - in 13 countries.
On 31 March, 1,622 people were infected, of which 58 died.
Genetic analyses reveal 2019-nCoV is more similar to Sars than any other coronavirus.
Scientists from Fudan University in Shanghai found the new strain appears to be 89.1% genetically similar to “a group of Sars-like coronaviruses”.
With Sars having started in bats, this suggests the nocturnal creatures may also be responsible for the new coronavirus.
The virus is thought to have “jumped” from an animal to a human at a live seafood and animal market towards the end of last year.
Most of those who initially became unwell worked at, or visited, the market.
Read more: Coronavirus likely spread beyond quarantine borders before China's ‘lockdown’
Sars jumped from bats to humans via the masked palm civet, a mammal native to the Indian subcontinent and south-east Asia.
Scientists from Peking University in Beijing have suggested snakes may have been the “intermediate host” for the new coronavirus.
A team from South China Agricultural University have since found pangolins could be to blame.
While little is known about exactly where the virus came from or how long it takes to cause symptoms, Chinese authorities have confirmed it spreads via droplets expelled while sneezing or coughing.
It is unknown whether the virus “floats” in the air or survives on hard surfaces.
Infected patients develop flu-like symptoms, such as fever and breathlessness.
In the most severe cases, victims succumb to pneumonia.
This comes about when a respiratory infection causes the alveoli (air sacs) in the lungs to become inflamed and filled with fluid or pus.
The lungs then struggle to draw in air, resulting in reduced oxygen in the bloodstream.
“Without treatment the end is inevitable,” said the charity Médecins Sans Frontières.
“Deaths occurs because of asphyxiation.”
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned there is no specific treatment for coronaviruses.
If the infection triggers pneumonia, doctors work to combat the complication.
Pneumonia is generally caused by bacteria, which tend to respond to antibiotics.
When a virus is to blame – like 2019-nCoV – it may be treated via “antiviral medication”.
Professor Peter Horby from the University of Oxford claims, however, there is “no effective anti-viral”, with treatment being “supportive”.
 

marsh

On TB every waking moment
US dependence on China for drug ingredients ‘hinders coronavirus response’

  • Capitol Hill hearing comes only days after the Trump administration proposes sweeping cuts to public health agencies and scientific research
  • Other vulnerabilities in the supply chain could affect the flow of gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, former CDC director says
The United States’ ability to respond to an epidemic within its borders is critically hampered by its reliance on China for pharmaceutical products and insufficient funding for preparedness, former health officials warned on Wednesday.

The assessment came amid the growing spread of the deadly coronavirus that emerged in China’s Hubei province, and just days after US President Donald Trump’s administration proposed significant cuts to the health agencies charged with leading the response to the contagion.

US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

“In many cases China is the sole source of that material,” Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill.

At a time when China would be focusing its production on domestic demand rather than international export, and amid wide scale disruption to industry across the country caused by the coronavirus outbreak, Gottlieb said the contagion had exposed “a critical choke point in the supply chain for pharmaceuticals”.


Biomedical researchers around the world are scrambling to find an effective treatment and develop a vaccine for the disease, named Covid-19 on Tuesday by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The contagion has killed more than 1,100 people and infected over 45,000, the vast majority in China.

Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trump’s National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. “That needs to change going forward,” she said.

The former officials were testifying before the Senate homeland security and governmental affairs committee, the upper chamber’s chief oversight body.

As was the case at a House of Representatives hearing about the coronavirus outbreak last week, administration officials declined to testify before the panel, disappointing committee members of both parties.

Officials were occupied with a closed-door briefing of lawmakers on Wednesday morning, said Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican from Wisconsin and the committee chairman. “But I think it’s extremely important the public understands these things as well,” he added.

continued....



Video of Roundtable 2:12:32 min
 

jward

passin' thru
i see this is still causing panic...recall yesterday we were reminded how viruses replicate, what it means about their strength when not detected etc...these people whos titers, iirc the word, are not high enough to test positive can indeed infect you, but...
they are carrying a light load themselves, and are not having the symptoms triggered such as sneezing, coughing and mucus production that carries the infectious agents to others to the same degree...





BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk


There are a number of cases in which people with coronavirus initially test negative. In Tianjin, health officials say a woman developed symptoms on January 25. Her tests on Feb. 5, 8, and 10 came back as negative. The test on Feb. 12 was positive for coronavirus
 

DazedandConfused

Veteran Member
Question regarding comments about your fish...( :) ).... don’t you still need a Rx for these? I went to one of the online sites , recommended here, to order a supply, then saw Rx must be scanned from your doctor to order.

How does that work? Do you just ask your Dr for some Rx in advance? Most doctors wouldn’t do that !, I thought(?)
I order thru Chewy. www.chewy.com
 
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