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WEATHER Another Round of Storms Coming. (4/17/19)
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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Tennessee
    Posts
    2,726
    Stay safe everyone!! It won't be here in TN until Friday - dread it. Prayers for all in its path.
    Annie
    "A dog wags its tail with its heart"

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    OK
    Posts
    30,872
    Proud Infidel...............and Cracker

    Member: Nowski Brigade

    Deplorable


  3. #43
    Join Date
    May 2001
    Location
    Behind Enemy Lines
    Posts
    163,598
    Looks like they’ve weakened heading into my AO. I cancelled my plans and covered the car. Goodnight all.

  4. Stay safe, Everyone.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Southern Born
    Posts
    4,067
    Thanks to all of you for the maps, warnings and updates. Especially those posted by Millwright.
    I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.
    Robert Heinlein

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Here- sometimes there
    Posts
    2,737
    Y'all really didn't have to invite me to the party, missing this one wouldn't have hurt my feelings a bit!

    Should be ok here, though. Take care of yourselves, and each other, plz!
    Thoughts are things. Thus I'm careful of the thoughts I think, & the company I keep.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    AL
    Posts
    52,792
    Tornado Warning

    Severe Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Springfield MO
    1253 AM CDT THU APR 18 2019

    MOC057-180615-
    /O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190418T0615Z/
    Dade MO-
    1253 AM CDT THU APR 18 2019

    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT FOR WESTERN
    DADE COUNTY...

    At 1253 AM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both
    tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located along a
    line extending from 11 miles north of Golden City to near Lockwood,
    moving east at 65 mph.

    HAZARD...Tornado.

    SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

    IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
    shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
    to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
    likely.

    Locations impacted include...
    Stockton Lake... Greenfield...
    Lockwood... South Greenfield...
    Arcola... Neola...
    Cedarville... Meinert...
    Sylvania...

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
    floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
    mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
    and protect yourself from flying debris.

    This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
    widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
    tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
    floor of a building.

    &&

    LAT...LON 3758 9407 3758 9387 3752 9374 3742 9373
    3733 9387 3730 9408
    TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 255DEG 54KT 3756 9406 3731 9397

    TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
    HAIL...<.75IN

    $$

    Cramer
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one 6' college bound "little bit"

  8. #48
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    AL
    Posts
    52,792
    outlook for Thursday 04/18



    tornado




    wind






    Apr 18, 2019 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
    Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
    Updated: Thu Apr 18 05:43:31 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190418 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20190418 1200Z Day 1 KML)
    Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

    Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Regions
    Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
    Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)
    Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
    5 % 104,550 8,094,967 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...
    Forecast Discussion

    SPC AC 180543

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
    TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower Mississippi
    Valley through the central Gulf Coast states, accompanied by the
    risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, some of which
    could become strong.

    ...Synopsis...
    An amplification within the large-scale mid/upper flow now
    progressing inland of the Pacific coast appears likely to translate
    downstream, through the Mississippi Valley, where a deepening
    mid-level trough is expected to evolve by 12Z Friday. One
    significant short wave trough and mid-level low, already progressing
    through the southern Plains, appears likely to become increasingly
    sheared while accelerating across and northeast of the mid/lower
    Mississippi Valley vicinity. This may include one prominent
    embedded perturbation, associated with extensive ongoing convection
    across central/eastern Texas, which is forecast to pivot through the
    lower Mississippi Valley by late this afternoon. Thereafter, a
    significant upstream short wave trough, digging to the lee of the
    Rockies, is forecast to continue southeastward into the lower
    Mississippi Valley, where another embedded mid-level low may begin
    to evolve by the end of the period.

    Models indicate primary low-level cyclogenesis during this period
    will accompany the lead perturbation, with a deepening surface low
    center probably migrating from east Texas through the lower
    Mississippi Valley, toward the western slopes of the central
    Appalachians. Considerable convection, and associated surface
    outflow, are expected to precede the trailing cold front across the
    lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states.

    While the low-level environment across much of the Southeast may be
    initially dry and or stable, models continue to indicate an influx
    of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture off the western Gulf of
    Mexico, across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and central
    into eastern Gulf Coast states. The extent to which this precedes
    the eastward advancing convective outflow remains unclear, but
    potential exists for sufficient destabilization to support
    re-intensification of thunderstorm activity, with the evolution of
    an organized squall line accompanied by potential damaging wind
    gusts and a few tornadoes possible.

    ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast states...
    Some uncertainty exists concerning how quickly thunderstorms will
    redevelop and intensify along eastward advancing outflow generated
    by ongoing thunderstorm activity now spreading through eastern
    Texas. There appears likely to be at least some stabilization of
    mid-level lapse rates. However, guidance indicates that southerly
    850 mb flow may strengthen in excess of 50 kt, inland of the
    Louisiana coast through Mississippi, as early as the 18-21Z time
    frame. This probably will be accompanied by a corridor of
    considerable boundary layer moistening, with guidance indicating
    surface dew points increasing through the upper 60s to near 70 F as
    far north as at least much of southern/southwestern Mississippi,
    contributing to CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.

    Aided by strongly difluent and divergent upper flow, and strong
    vertical shear, a gradually intensifying and organizing squall line
    is expected to be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
    wind gusts, and perhaps a few embedded tornadoes. As the convective
    system advances eastward, it may be preceded by discrete supercell
    development, and a weak warm frontal zone, which may provide the
    focus for large clockwise curved low-level hodographs supportive of
    a risk for tornadoes. A couple of these could become strong,
    perhaps as far east as southeastern Alabama by late tonight.

    ..Kerr/Bentley.. 04/18/2019

    CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

    NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
    CURRENT UTC TIME: 0605Z (1:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
    Last edited by Lilbitsnana; Today at 01:27 AM.
    Nana to two "little bits", one not-so-little "little bit" and one 6' college bound "little bit"

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