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#1
04-01-2004, 10:19 PM
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[SCI]Scientists Predict Major SoCal Quake Within 5 Months
POSTED: 3:07 pm PST April 1, 2004
http://www.ktvu.com/news/2968506/detail.html LOS ANGELES -- A state earthquake council has given a qualified endorsement to a prediction by a group of scientists who believe that a temblor of magnitude-6.4 or greater will occur in the Southern California desert sometime in the next five months. The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a group of eight scientists selected by the state Office of Emergency Services, said it considers the new prediction by the scientists to be "a legitimate approach in earthquake prediction research." Despite its support the panel noted in a report that "the physical basis for the prediction has not been substantiated." The team of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, predict that a quake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5. The zone includes a large swath of the Mojave Desert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County. The area was the location of the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992 and the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in 1999. The zone is so seismically active that the council noted in its report that the chances of an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.4 occurring randomly in the area sometime before the Sept. 5 deadline is about 10 percent. The council concluded that the results do not warrant any special public policy actions in California. Such actions could include warnings to the public or alerts issued to utilities to help them prevent disruptions in service. The scientists piqued interest after they forecast the magnitude-6.5 San Simeon quake in December and the magnitude-8.1 quake last year off Japan's Hokkaido island. In both cases, the group set wide parameters in place and time. The team bases its predictions on long chains of small earthquakes recorded in the area. "In the vicinity of each such chain, we look backward and see its history over the preceding years -- whether our candidate (for an earthquake) was preceded by certain seismicity patterns," said lead team scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. "If yes, we accept the candidate as a short-term precursor and start a nine-month alarm." 
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#2
04-02-2004, 12:01 AM
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since 6.5 quakes have become somewhat common lately, i wouldn't doubt it a bit.
__________________
 
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#3
04-02-2004, 01:17 AM
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Here is my prediction:
A magnitude 6.2 or larger quake will strike within 15 miles of Parkfield before the magnitude 6.5 quake strikes in the southern California desert. Their prediction covers 12,000 square miles; my prediction covers less than 800 square miles. The San Simeon quake has transferred stress toward the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield and the instruments are registering the stress. Parkfield is also more than 10 years overdue for a magnitude 6 or larger quake.
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#4
04-02-2004, 09:25 AM
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I wonder if science could have predicted the submergence of Heliki in 373BC... or they would have said a 6 or a seven within the next 5 months. Don't want to alarm the hoi poloi you know. When I see all the quakes clustered around San Diego? Well, I think they should be on somekind of alert. Only three million people in the vicinity.
A lot of sun/earth activity. At least the scientists/predictors are on the dartboard. If a big one hits they can say they were in the game without losing face.
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#5
04-02-2004, 09:36 AM
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This is April, okay --
May, June, July, August, September. SEPTEMBER... what else is supposed to hit in SEPTEMBER... Do you think that this is the .gov's way of giving people a heads up for the month of September. I mean, you can't come out and say, BAM, Planet X is gonna hit in September, it's the economy stupid... Maybe this is just the beginning of snipets that we should keep our eyes open ... then again...let's not get paranoid, right.
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#6
09-28-2004, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
This was my prediction of a quake to hit Parkfield back in April of this year. Although I nailed the location, my magnitude estimate was a bit high.
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#7
09-28-2004, 12:41 PM
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That was a good hit Mr. Larry.
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#8
09-28-2004, 12:43 PM
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Times a runnin' out...looks like Sept 28th on my day runner today...
__________________
TIK NOT SO Safe and snug behind the Orange Curtain in Orange County, California--as of January 30, 2006--May GOD BLESS THIS COUNTRY! Our government obviously is OBLIVIOUS.
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#9
09-28-2004, 12:45 PM
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Well, somebody better DO somethin' cuz there'll be a BUNCH of homeless Mexicans...
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#11
09-28-2004, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
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#12
09-28-2004, 01:01 PM
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Could there possibly be any connection with the increase in activity @ Mount St. Helens and the 6.0 earthquake today or are they just too far apart to have a causal relationship?
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#13
09-28-2004, 01:04 PM
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If you look at the chart of the strainmeter from Jack Canyon at Parkfield, you will notice the strain drop off considerably in the first week of December of last year. Three weeks later we had that large San Simeon earthquake.
Beginning in March of this year, the strain began rebuilding very quickly. Also notice that the strain dropped off again in the first week of September. Again, three weeks later (today) we have a large quake.
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#14
09-28-2004, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
 (And what time frame if any are you suggesting for another event more in SoCal?)MAG DATE UTC-TIME LAT LON DEPTH LOCATION
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#15
09-28-2004, 04:46 PM
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Anjou,
I only really study the earthquakes and faults from Parkfield north up through San Francisco and into northern California where the San Andreas heads into the Pacific Ocean. The fault system in southern California is very very complex. As far as northern California goes, There have been several clusters of quakes on the Calaveras Fault near San Ramon in the past several years, and I think that area could produce a large quake somewhere around a magnitude 6. I don't see any immediate threat to the area, but I think it bears watching. Also the Hayward Fault adjacent to the Calaveras, which runs through Berkeley and Oakland has produced many large earthquakes over the years. And then there is always the San Andreas around San Francisco that could go at any time. Every time there is a large quake, the release of pressure in one area increases pressure in another area. I've been waiting on this Parkfield quake for some time now. We'll see what the aftershock sequence brings in the days and weeks ahead. For now I have no future predictions regarding any quakes in California. 
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