WAR 10/20:***The***Perfect***Storm***

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THE WINDS OF WAR​

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Hariri probe team re-enacts blast

The controlled test blast is part of the investigation into the 2005 assassination of ex-Lebanese PM Rafiq al-Hariri.

20 Oct 2010 01:10 GMT
english.aljazeera.net​

An international tribunal probing the 2005 killing of Rafiq al-Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, has conducted a "controlled explosive experiment".

The Special Tribunal for Lebanon, based in The Hague, said Tuesday's test blast at a military camp in France did not amount to a full-scale reconstruction of the assassination.

"The controlled explosion involved replicating an explosion in order to carry out forensic tests," the court said in a statement.

Investigators carried out the test blast at an air force base in Captieux, near Bordeaux in southwestern France, it added.

The court ordered the operation under its mandate "to identify and prosecute those responsible" for the massive bombing that killed al-Hariri and 22 others in Beirut in February 2005.

The former Lebanese leader's killing was widely blamed on Syria, which has denied any involvement.

The tribunal, based in The Hague, was set up by a UN Security Council resolution in 2007. It has no suspects in custody and no trials scheduled.

Expert analysis

The court said experts appointed by the office of the prosecutor were present at the explosion, and will analyse the results.

"The results and analysis will be part of the investigation and, as such, remain confidential," the court's statement said.

Bernard Valero, a French foreign ministry spokesman, said his country had hosted the exercise at the request of the court and reaffirmed its support for the tribunal.

"No one can or should prejudge the outcome of the court's work or try to exert influence on it," Valero told AFP.

Fears of violence

The test blast comes as the US, Britain and France warned against any interference with the probe at a UN Security Council meeting on the Israeli-Palestinian crisis on Monday.

Hezbollah, part of Lebanon's national unity government, has denounced the UN-backed court as a tool of US and Israeli policy and called on current prime minister Saad al-Hariri, Rafiq's son, to repudiate the tribunal.

Syria, initially implicated by UN investigators in the bombing that killed al-Hariri, has always viewed the tribunal as politically motivated. Syrian officials say any indictments of Hezbollah would be considered to be targeting Syria too.

Syria has denied involvement in al-Hariri's assassination but was forced to end its three-decade military presence in Lebanon following an international outcry.

Fears of violence have intensified since rumors of the impending indictments began to circulate.

Suleiman Franjieh, a pro-Syrian politician, warned last month of sectarian war in Lebanon if the tribunal indicted Hezbollah members.



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Pakistan warns on Tehran nukes

From: AFP October 20, 2010 12:00AM
www.theaustrailian.com.au​

THE Pakistani Foreign Minister says Iran has no justification to pursue nuclear weapons.

He has urged the neighbouring country to embrace overtures from the US.

In some of Pakistan's strongest statements on Iran's controversial nuclear program, Shah Mahmood Qureshi said yesterday that he wanted to avoid "another major crisis in the region".

"I don't think they have a justification to go nuclear. Who's threatening Iran? I don't see any immediate threat to Iran," Mr Qureshi said during an address at Harvard University.

But he added that Pakistan accepted Iran's "right to civilian use of technology".

Mr Qureshi said he had shared his views with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and told him to seize on US President Barack Obama's stated willingness to engage in dialogue to mend decades of fraught US-Iranian ties.

"This administration has been extending the olive branch - make use of it. Engage the world," Mr Qureshi said.

Pakistan has a mostly friendly but complicated relationship with Iran's Shia clerical regime.

Baluchistan, stretching between the two nations, is rife with insurgency and sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shi'ites.

Pakistan and Iran in June signed a deal that commits Tehran to selling natural gas from a pipeline. The US has warned against the project as it steps up sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said at the time that Islamabad would implement UN resolutions on Iran but not unilateral US restrictions.

Mr Qureshi said Pakistan faced a threat from India, making its case different from that of Iran.

AFP


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Crisis over Iran atom work may peak in 2011

October 19. 1020
www.todayszaman.com​

The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme risks turning into an all-out crisis next year unless Tehran shows seriousness in negotiations expected to resume next month with world powers, an expert on nuclear diplomacy said.

Iran could face further U.N. sanctions and its mounting uranium stockpile could prompt a military strike by arch-foe Israel, Mark Fitzpatrick, an Iran watcher at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Reuters in an interview in Istanbul.

"I think we could be in an out and out crisis in a year's time," Fitzpatrick said.

Though no firm dates have been given, Iran's negotiators are expected to meet with representatives of the five members of the Security Council and Germany -- the so-called P5+1 -- in Vienna next month, Fitzpatrick said.

The former U.S. diplomat said he believed more foot-dragging by Iran on discussing curbs on its nuclear programme will lead to fresh moves to impose additional U.N. economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Israel could launch a military strike even before Tehran makes a decisive step toward enriching uranium to weapons grade. Military action by Israel or the United States would raise the spectre of wider conflict in the Middle East.

Spooking Israel

"My worry is that Iran won't overtly cross the line, but that it will miscalculate how close it can get before it crosses an Israeli tripwire," said Fitzpatrick.

"And I'm not sure Iran knows where Israel's tripwires are. I'm not sure Israel knows where its tripwires are," he said.

Iran has diced with those risks for years, but the margins for error are becoming dangerously fine, he said.

Iran's successful tests of the Sajjil, a solid-fuelled ballistic missile with a range of more than 2,000 km, that can be fired from deep inside Iranian territory at targets in Israel, or potentially regional rival Saudi Arabia, have heightened a sense of growing unease.

Picking his words carefully to avoid assuming that Iran had already made up its mind to arm the Sajjil with a nuclear payload, Fitzpatrick said such missiles were regarded as only strategically important for delivering nuclear weapons.

"Iran's the only country that has developed these kind of missiles with a range of 2,000 km or more that hasn't developed nuclear weapons at the same time. So that's another reason why there's concern about Iran's intention."

Israel has not declared itself a nuclear weapons state but is assumed to be one.

Fitzpatrick reckons the Jewish state has around 200 nuclear weapons, and should eventually submit to limits in order to secure peace in the wider Middle East. But he said Israel's arsenal shouldn't be used to argue for Iran's right to violate international accords by building nuclear weapons capability.

Iran has enough low enriched uranium (LEU) to make two nuclear weapons, if it decided to enrich to weapons grade, according to western nuclear analysts. By next year it could make as many as five.

Fitzpatrick expected Iran to want to try to make world powers revive an already rejected offer, brokered with Turkey and Brazil in May, to swap some 1,200 kg of its stockpile of LEU for fuel rods for use in Tehran's Medical Research Reactor.

When it was first proposed a year ago that would have represented 75 percent of Iran's stockpile, but now it amounts to about 40 percent devaluing the suggested swap as a confidence building measure.



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The Flying Dutchman said:

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For Fair Use: Discussion

Pakistan warns on Tehran nukes

From: AFP October 20, 2010 12:00AM
www.theaustrailian.com.au​

THE Pakistani Foreign Minister says Iran has no justification to pursue nuclear weapons.

He has urged the neighbouring country to embrace overtures from the US.

In some of Pakistan's strongest statements on Iran's controversial nuclear program, Shah Mahmood Qureshi said yesterday that he wanted to avoid "another major crisis in the region".

"I don't think they have a justification to go nuclear. Who's threatening Iran? I don't see any immediate threat to Iran," Mr Qureshi said during an address at Harvard University.

But he added that Pakistan accepted Iran's "right to civilian use of technology".

Mr Qureshi said he had shared his views with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and told him to seize on US President Barack Obama's stated willingness to engage in dialogue to mend decades of fraught US-Iranian ties.

"This administration has been extending the olive branch - make use of it. Engage the world," Mr Qureshi said.

Pakistan has a mostly friendly but complicated relationship with Iran's Shia clerical regime.

Baluchistan, stretching between the two nations, is rife with insurgency and sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shi'ites.

Pakistan and Iran in June signed a deal that commits Tehran to selling natural gas from a pipeline. The US has warned against the project as it steps up sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said at the time that Islamabad would implement UN resolutions on Iran but not unilateral US restrictions.

Mr Qureshi said Pakistan faced a threat from India, making its case different from that of Iran.

AFP


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Click to expand...

Sounds like the Pakistanis are using talking points supplied by the Saudis/GCC. Sunni v. Shia definitely at play here as well as the relations that India has with Iran.....Interesting times about to get more so.....

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01:32 20.10.10

His time is fleeting

By Aluf Benn
www.haaretz.com​

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is approaching the point of irrelevance, from which his government will slide into the next elections without anything to show for the current term. His time in office has been marked by a major lost opportunity. The two primary goals that he set - halting the Iranian threat and reaching a settlement with the Palestinians - are evading him. His only accomplishment, dragging Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas into direct negotiations, broke apart on takeoff.

Netanyahu's government is dealing with nonsensical issues: the loyalty oath bill for new Arab citizens, and now for Jews, too, and the blame game with the Palestinians over who is responsible for the failure of the talks - whether it's because of the settlements or the Palestinian refusal to recognize a Jewish state.

Netanyahu rejected the proposal by U.S. President Barack Obama and Defense Minister Ehud Barak for an additional 60-day settlement construction freeze, explaining that he has to demonstrate "trustworthiness and steadfastness." As he sees it, if he stands up to the American president now, he will keep some wiggle room in reserve, in anticipation of the tough decisions ahead. But the same person who tries to be seen as tough when facing Obama, which is no great show of strength when the U.S. president has been weakened and is preparing for defeat in the November congressional elections, comes out looking like a dishrag when facing Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

Attempts to satisfy the foreign minister undermine Netanyahu's trustworthiness and steadfastness to the same extent as the continuation of the freeze, but with the opposite effect. It turns out the prime minister has nothing to say. He is simply being kicked around like a soccer ball between Obama and Lieberman, between Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman and United Torah Judaism MK Moshe Gafni, between Defense Minister Barak and Social Affairs Minister Isaac Herzog.

Netanyahu will survive the coming months. Lieberman is not quitting. Barak and the other Labor Party ministers are still hoping for a "genuine peace process," and will not vacate their posts until its collapse is imminent. Maybe in the spring. That would buy Netanyahu time, but what will he do during that time?

Israel's diplomacy has reached a turning point. Instead of dealing with the failed direct talks, from this point Israel will be orchestrating a diplomatic holding action against the Palestinian initiative to have the UN Security Council recognize Palestinian independence within the 1967 borders. Such a decision would deem Israel an invader and occupier, paving the way for measures against Israel. Obama could scuttle the process by casting an American veto. Would he do it? And at what price?

Barak is warning Netanyahu that Obama is determined to establish a Palestinian state, even if it requires political risks. The president doesn't have to come out publicly against Israel, but can simply stand on the sidelines when the Security Council recognizes Palestine. The international movement to boycott Israel will gain massive encouragement when Europe, China and India turn their backs on Israel and erode the last remnants of its legitimacy. Gradually the Israeli public will also feel the diplomatic and economic stranglehold.

It's not certain that this will happen. A U.S. Congress under Republican control would exert tremendous pressure on Obama to cast a U.S. veto at the United Nations. Of greater import, however, is that an international declaration that Israel is an occupier and trespasser could spark a new war here and the large amount of blood that would be shed would be on Obama's hands, if he were to allow such a resolution to pass. This could deter the president, but he will ask for a quid pro quo from Israel.

On the Iranian front, too, the situation is not rosy. The visit to Lebanon by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad handed Netanyahu propaganda points. But you don't defeat atomic bombs with propaganda. Israel has adopted a new definition for the point of no return. Instead of talking about an operational nuclear bomb or a "threshold nation" that accumulates enriched material and could quickly assemble a bomb, Israel is now warning of a situation in which Iran expands its nuclear infrastructure until its survivability is assured, foiling the possibility of a surgical strike on its installations. Anyone wishing to act against Iran will have to engage in all-out war aimed at toppling the Iranian regime. Israel does not have such capacity and time is running out.

On the face of it, it is not too late to attack Iran, but how will Netanyahu overcome Obama's opposition to an Israeli operation? Will congressional support suffice? The records from the Yom Kippur War reveal the depth of Israeli dependence on America, even regarding self-defense. Netanyahu could defy Obama only if the president is weakened and Israel feels that its back is up against a wall. That is not the situation in the meantime.

In his prior term as prime minister, Netanyahu wasted most of his time on delaying tactics, and by the time he signed the Wye Accords with the Palestinians, he was already too weak and fell from power. Now he is engaging in the same kind of conduct. His time is fleeting. Will he manage to make a decision and leave his personal stamp on Israeli history, or will he continue his evasive tactics and be remembered as a leader who missed his chance twice?



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thanks dutch..

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Tuesday 19th October

CONVOY FINALLY SETS SAIL FOR GAZA

ramallahonline.com​

After a wait in Syria lasting sixteen days, the convoy of 150 vehicles and 370 people is just setting sail from Latakia, Syria, on the final leg of the epic journey to deliver aid to Gaza.

The last formalities have been completed and the vehicles are on board. Convoy members are jubilant that their objective of bringing medical aid to the besieged people of Gaza is finally in sight.

Some 30 of the human rights activists, including survivors of the Mavi Marmara, will make the voyage to Al Arish in Egypt, passing the place at which the Mavi Marmara was attacked. A memorial ceremony will be held at the exact spot where the massacre was carried out.

The convoy will reach Al Arish tomorrow evening. The bulk of the activists from Britain, Northern Ireland, France, Italy, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the United States, Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Qatar, Malaysia and more than a dozen other countries will be reunited with their vehicles there, having flown the final leg of the journey into Egypt.Convoy leaders are now hopeful that the convoy will enter Gaza on Friday.




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U.S. urges Yemen to step up fight

By Hamza Hendawi
Associated Press
7:41 p.m., Tuesday, October 19, 2010
www.washingtontimes.com​

SAN'A, Yemen | For nearly a year, the United States has waged a war against al Qaeda in Yemen, largely in deep secrecy. But the militants appear unfazed, and the fragile government of this poor Arab nation is pushing back against U.S. pressure to escalate the fight.

The regime of Yemen's longtime leader, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, is weak, dependent for its survival on the loyalty of unruly tribes and alliances with Muslim extremists.

Yemeni authorities also fear too harsh a fight against al Qaeda will alienate a deeply conservative Muslim population where anti-American sentiment is widespread. As a result, the main Yemeni tactic is often to negotiate with tribes to try to persuade them to hand over fugitive militants.

Yemeni officials say Washington is pressing them to be more aggressive.

"The Americans are pushing hard and the government is resisting hard," said Yasser al-Awadi, a senior lawmaker close to Mr. Saleh, Yemen's leader of 32 years.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh is waging a quiet war against al Qaeda in Yemen. (Associated Press)Al Qaeda militants have been building up their presence for several years in Yemen, finding refuge with tribes in the remote mountain ranges where San'a has little control.

But they made a stunning show of their international reach in December, when they allegedly plotted a failed Christmas Day attempt to blow up a passenger jet over the U.S.

The Obama administration branded al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula a global threat, and has dramatically stepped up its alliance with Mr. Saleh's regime to uproot it.

Around 50 elite U.S. military experts are in the country training Yemeni counterterrorism forces — a number that has doubled over the past year.

Washington is funneling some $150 million in military assistance to Yemen this year for helicopters, planes and other equipment, along with a similar amount for humanitarian and development aid. San'a says its troops are fanned out around the country, hunting for militants.


Still, there's little visible progress.

In recent weeks, al Qaeda gunmen have been bold enough to carry out assaults in the capital, San'a, including a failed ambush on a top British diplomat in her car. The government touted as a major success a fierce weeklong siege in September by Yemeni troops against an al Qaeda force in the provincial town of Houta, but most of the militants escaped into nearby, impenetrable mountains.

Days after that siege, the governor of the same province, Shabwa, narrowly escaped gunmen who ambushed his convoy. In nearby Abyan province, an al Qaeda campaign of assassinations that has killed dozens of police and army officers prompted authorities last month to ban motorcycles in urban areas to try to stop cycle-mounted gunmen.

Meanwhile, al Qaeda in Yemen's top leadership remains intact, issuing a Web video last week threatening to cross into neighboring Saudi Arabia to assassinate senior security officials. "Look under your beds before you sleep, you might find one of our bombs," the video warned Saudis, whose government is viewed by al Qaeda as not Islamic, corrupt and too close to America.

And the hunt for Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S.-born radical Islamic cleric who Washington says has become a leader in the group, may have gone cold. The governor of Shabwa province, where Mr. al-Awlaki is believed to be hiding in the mountains, told the Associated Press he hasn't been sighted in two months and cast doubt whether the cleric was still in the province.

U.S. officials have been careful not to show any sign of friction. "We believe that abilities of the Yemeni security system are constantly increasing," the State Department's No. 3 diplomat, William Burns, told reporters after meeting Mr. Saleh last week.

Still, Yemeni Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Qirbi recently brought one dispute out into the open, saying San'a had put a stop to U.S. warplanes or drones carrying out strikes against al Qaeda targets, a tactic that Washington has relied on against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan.

In December, three airstrikes were carried out against purported al Qaeda targets in two provinces and outside San'a. At least six al Qaeda militants are thought to have been killed in those strikes, along with more than 40 civilians. In a Sept. 30 interview with the Arab daily Al-Hayat, Mr. al-Qirbi acknowledged the assaults were carried out by U.S. aircraft.

"American strikes have ceased since December because the Yemeni government insisted that these strikes don't yield any results," he said.

Visible signs of the U.S. counterterror campaign here are few.


Deep in the country of 23 million people, villagers report the round-the-clock sound of drones, presumed to be U.S. craft watching militants. Dozens of informers have been recruited in recent months to keep U.S. counterterrorism officials posted on the militants' movements and chatter, Yemeni security officials say. They also say the Yemenis submit to their U.S. counterparts daily progress reports on efforts to track down Mr. al-Awlaki.

With U.S. airstrikes off the table — and American officials saying there is no intention for U.S. troops to fight on the ground — it is up to Yemen's police and military to wage the battle. But their ability to operate is deeply hampered.

Al Qaeda fighters — estimated to number around 300 — have built up strongholds in the provinces of Shabwa, Abyan, Jouf and Marib, regions of daunting mountain ranges where central authority has nearly no presence.

At least 70 percent of Shabwa, for example, is a no-go area for security forces, leaving most under the control of armed tribesmen who offer protection to al Qaeda militants, Yemeni security officials say.

Yemen and Washington also disagree on how much of a real threat al Qaeda presents. Yemeni lawmakers and tribal chiefs often maintain that the danger is a myth propagated by Washington to impose its control over the country — or by the San'a government to give it an excuse to strike its domestic enemies.

The U.S. sees Mr. al-Awlaki as the most notorious English-speaking advocate of terrorism directed at America, with a dangerously strong appeal to Muslims in the West, and Washington has put him on a list of militants to kill or capture. U.S. investigators say e-mails link him to the Army psychiatrist accused of last year's killings at Fort Hood, Texas, and that he helped prepare Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, accused in the Christmas airline bombing attempt.

But in Yemen — Mr. al-Awlaki's ancestral land — only a few people have heard of him. Those who have say they cannot understand what the fuss is all about. And if he is captured, he will not be extradited to the U.S. because Yemen's constitution forbids it, Mr. al-Qirbi has said.




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BTTT

Thanks Dutch!!!

01:32 20.10.10

His time is fleeting

By Aluf Benn
www.haaretz.com

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is approaching the point of irrelevance...

His time is fleeting. Will he manage to make a decision and leave his personal stamp on Israeli history, or will he continue his evasive tactics and be remembered as a leader who missed his chance twice?


A fascinating piece about Israel's stalling at this "turning point" in their history; scroll back and read if you hadn't.

And our own "turning point" of sorts will be here Nov 2.

The UK laid off 500,000 government workers, rioting continues in France, my own state of IL is bankrupt... There will be no turning back from what's ahead of us.

bump

thanks for the news. bttt

http://www.debka.com/article/9093/

US deploys second air carrier in Persian Gulf with 60 warplanes
DEBKAfile Special Report October 20, 2010, 5:15 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Iran Persian Gulf US carriers
USS Abraham Lincoln now opposite Iran

The United States has posted a second aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, in the Persian Gulf and northern Arabian Sea. The announcement came from the Pentagon Tuesday, Oct. 19, two days after the vessel put into port at Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain. debkafile's sources note that this is the first time in two years that Washington had deployed two aircraft carriers at same time - not just one - in waters opposite Iran and Afghanistan.
Facing Iran at the moment therefore is the USS Harry S. Truman which has four squadrons of Hornet and Super Hornet fighter-bombers plus Squadron 116 of early warning, surveillance and command craft, Squadron 131 of electronic warfare craft, two more squadrons of helicopters and one of transports.

The Abraham Lincoln's arrival has raised the number of US fighter-bombers in Iran's neighborhood to 120.

The carrier was accompanied by the guided missile cruiser USS Cape St. George.

The Pentagon announcement was careful to avoid mentioning Iran: US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates approved the presence of a second carrier… to provide surge support for coalition forces in Afghanistan "and to support existing maritime security operations."
But the significance of two massive American naval-aerial strike forces opposite Iranian shores was not lost on Tehran, our sources report. Wednesday, Oct. 20, Brig. Gen. Hussein Salami, Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, came out with this statement: "The enemies of Iran should know the Islamic establishment's red lines and not trespass them."

Another wrinkle: Carrier deployment with minimal escorts?? 1 guided missile cruiser?
destroyers? subs? supply support vessels, the lack thereof, indicate short deployment window.