ENVR BP containment cap is bouncing and wobbling

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http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/02/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T1

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http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/02/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T1

Bouncing containment cap may mean less oil captured
By the CNN Wire Staff
July 2, 2010 12:54 p.m. EDT

New Orleans, Louisiana (CNN) -- A cap on BP's ruptured undersea well appeared to be bouncing in the water Friday, raising the possibility that BP has been capturing less oil than in past days.

The cap is meant to capture oil gushing from the well into the Gulf of Mexico. It was bouncing in the water Friday, moving more freely than it has in the past.

The implication is that less oil is being captured, said Steven Wereley, a member of the Flow Rate Technical Group, which is meant to provide scientifically sound information about how much oil is spilling into the Gulf of Mexico.

Officials have noted a slight drop-off in how much oil has been collected in recent days.

For the 12-hour period from noon Thursday until midnight, approximately 9,515barrels of oil were collected and about 4,150 barrels of oil and 28.6 million cubic feet of natural gas were flared.

High winds account for the cap's "wobble," said Mark Proegler, a BP spokesman. He noted that forecasters expect rough seas to calm a bit this weekend.

Hurricane Alex whipped up strong winds and waves before it made landfall in northeastern Mexico late Wednesday night.

CNN finally caught up with this info? That cap has been doing that for at least 3 days now.

And with BP saying its the wind and high seas I am now certain Loup is right and it's pressure from the well creating that dance. Others are saying the same thing.

Sorry, but I have a hard time believing the high winds are causing that kind of wobbling 5,000 feet below sea level.

Either more pressure or the pipe to the ship is moving in the high seas causing the cap to move. Lets hope it is more pressure that could be a real disaster.

BP (BS) spokesman said:

High winds account for the cap's "wobble," said Mark Proegler, a BP spokesman. He noted that forecasters expect rough seas to calm a bit this weekend.

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I don't think I have laughed so hard in my life! And what is worse is the press bought it and passed it along with no questions asked.

All I have to ask this reporter is one question: Have you EVER dived UNDER a wave as you were playing in the surf?

The reason is that the FAR UNDERSIDE of the wave actually will move you AWAY from the beach, as will the water retracting from the beach AFTER the wave has passed. A few feet below that, you have VERY little movement. 20 feet more and you have next to no wave movement.

Now ask yourself this question, have you ever seen lobsters or other bottom feeders (in the ocean, not in DC), scoot sideways because of ocean currents down deep? I haven't, and don't ever expect to.

5,000 feet down, you ain't gonna feel jack as far as waves and surface movements.
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BP's MO right now is to give out as little info as possible, and when possible, mix it in with either junk science, or absolute BS so that they can minimize the casualties on their side.

There is a reason that they have stopped at just below 18 feet to closing. They are listening to what is happening down there. They have one shot at getting this right, and a VERY low probability of success at that. They are waiting for the second relief well to close in to about 20 feet before proceeding. When that happens they will run every test they can think of before running the last 15-20 feet and drilling into the main well bore. They have ONE shot. If ONE of the two relief bores goes slightly wrong, expect things to go from bad to worse. And even if everything goes perfectly with the cut-in, they still need to be able to deal with the extreme pressures and fluctuations involved.

If the pressure blows the relief wells, there will be a lot more leakage. If, even worse, the cut-in is not perfect, the erosion at that point could easily start to erode a slot from the two or three different well bores and we could end up with a slot eroding away to the surface between the well bores. If that happens, we are not looking at 1 to 3 pipes that are 20 inches in diameter spewing out oil and gas, we are looking at a slot in the seabed that could be several football fields in size.

Pray that it all works out right.

The Obama administration probably has Cap and Trade I and II ready for a vote in the wings...

I would strongly suggest that everybody that needs gasoline or diesel to think about stocking up now while things are cheap. IF this goes real bad, think about all of the GOM deliveries that WON'T be able to be made, and all of the processing that will have to be shut down.

Loup

And we all know about how perfectly they cut.

Now, thinking about hole sizes...

One 20 inch diameter pipe = 2.181 square feet

Three 20 inch diameter pipes = 6.544 square feet

One football field = 57,600 square feet

IF they say that this reservoir could last for 10-15 years from this one pipe...

It could empty out in 5 years if all three wells are runaway, and in 4.975 hours if the football field sized slot ever opens up...

Loup

Loup, sorry, but you're wrong here. Have you ever had a boat anchor pull loose from the bottom because of the wave action on the boat? I have...many a time. I've also had the anchor dragged along the bottom because the waves were driving the boat across the water. If the cap were not connected to the surface, you'd be right. But, it *is* connected...by several very long hoses, and cables. Sorry.

Caplock50 said:

Loup, sorry, but you're wrong here. Have you ever had a boat anchor pull loose from the bottom because of the wave action on the boat? I have...many a time. I've also had the anchor dragged along the bottom because the waves were driving the boat across the water. If the cap were not connected to the surface, you'd be right. But, it *is* connected...by several very long hoses, and cables. Sorry.

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All of the diagrams I have seen of the setup have the pipes going down to the seabed and resting there before going up to the ships so that any pulling or tugging that the ships might do to the pipe. I will try to find the current setup and see if it is tight, or if it heads to the floor first to allow ship movement.

ETA: I would think that if it did not have all that extra slack, the first good pull would either rip the pipe, pull the cap off of the BOP, or pull the BOP off of the seabed mount.

Loup

Somebody posted a link a few weeks ago about how it will start to deteriorate at the well head and below the ocean floor due to leaks below the sea bed surface. Earth around the well pipe will be removed by leaking oil and gas making the pipe and well head unstable. That the weight of the well head will eventually break loose.

Perhaps the whole well head and pipe is loosening in the ocean floor.