ENVR Something has happened - Blowout at BP oil head?

This was from about 15 minutes ago when I saw the backlit edge of huge plume... This looks more on the scale of an old texas oil rig gusher now than the leak we had seen before...
Within a few minutes the plume has increased in size and completely blocked out the light and all you could see what black.

Lord I hope not! Keep us posted if you learn more.

I have beem watching it since they it up (off and on). The well is in a high pressure area and they had kicks so I assume we will see those occur. I know nobody wants to hear this and I am NOT saying nothing was done wrong but a mother of a kick was involved in the blowout, they had a history of kicks on that well. Which is the problem I have-why they didn't shut it in before?

If it blew, then its too late to put mud back. I think they were going to try this on Tuesday. Not good at all.

ITS NOT AT THE BOP, all is still relatively well, compared to if it was at the wellhead.

The ROV webcam is still at the end of the busted pipe/rise sitting near the seabed, they were just screwing with it, either mating something new to it or removing something they had put there a few days ago. It looked like it was leaking hydraulic fluid and the robot was messing with a fitting and valve.

Anyone else kinda wonder about all that loose ducttape and what looked like twist ties or zip ties?

Well, the debris from what ever kind of eruption that cleared for a while and you could actually see the plume again...



Then there was another even bigger eruption from behind where this pic was taken (the riser) and the then you could see nothing but boiling oil, the camera spinning round and round and now all you see is this... Blackness

Last night, it appeared that their temporary "siphon pipe" was blown out of the well at around 9 pm. I should have it recorded on my computer, and will try to edit the particular frames where it shows up... I came back in from getting the horse, etc in the barn, and the pipe was lying on the seabed, with a lot of apparent damage.

After that, the amount of oil visibly spewing from the wellhead was much larger.

I think they have major problems down there right now, and it's getting worse.

summerthyme

Cleared again... seems to be a crater now in the sea floor...

I can't access the sites at this time and can't sit and watch for long when I can.
(Busy household at this point in time.)
PLEASE KEEP US UPDATED!
I hope u all realize how important your observations and postings are to so many of us. THANK YOU!
-lyf

thank you for the continuing updates

I heard this morning that the latest estimates are 100,000 gallons pouring out every day as opposed to the 10,000 BP first said.

Mike

mt4design said:

I heard this morning that the latest estimates are 100,000 gallons pouring out every day as opposed to the 10,000 BP first said.

Mike

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The Purdue guy has redacted his first numbers and said it was more likely half of what he originally said. BUT what I want to know are where are the numbers?

I got this in a pr email and I have been checking and have not seen these released.

"To provide further specificity on the flow rate, the US government has created a Flow Rate Technical Team (FRTT) to develop a more precise estimate. The FRTT includes the US Coast Guard, NOAA, MMS, Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Geological Survey. The FRTT is mandated to produce a report by close of business on Saturday, May 22. "

Anything new on this? Your opinions, folks?


Where's Tom McDowell? and Border Guard? they've both been great "research" sources of info.

I heard this morning that the latest estimates are 100,000 gallons pouring out every day as opposed to the 10,000 BP first said.

Mike

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http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/spill_cam/

Mike, I think you mean barrels, not gallons?

This link is neat...it's to a Mobile/Pensacola news station. They have feed of the BP live link to the underwater camera but they also have an "estimated gallons spilled" counter. Currently, the total gallons spilled in 33 days is estimated by their counter to be in the neighborhood of 55.5 million. (I am not sure whose data the counter is based on.)

WOW!! Great pictures! Thanks.

The best estimate I've yet to see:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showpost.php?p=3738876&postcount=71

Between 10,000 and 40,000 barrels per day, which equates to 420,000 to 1,680,000 gallons of crude per day. This estimate may not include released natural gas.

Also since the situation is dynamic there's a possibility these numbers may be increasing daily.

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Where are you guys getting these pics. I saw on the news just 3 times the oil flow from the ROV. Is there a live feed?

Where are you guys getting these pics. I saw on the news just 3 times the oil flow from the ROV. Is there a live feed?

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http://www.wkrg.com/gulf_oil_spill/spill_cam/

or

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_int...local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html

Looks like the FTTT report was not released yet.

http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/posted/2931/FRTG_Fact_Sheet.559427.pdf

Here's the latest "situation map"

http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/posted/2931/SitMap0523.560079.pdf

This feed works pretty well, too.

http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2

(click no)

Thanks for finding that and starting this thread.

Could I ask a a favor? Can you put a date & time in this thread? "something just happened" is confusing so many hours after the fact.

I am really curious as to the diameter of the opening from which the oil is flowing. Does anyone know? I mean is that oil flow the diameter of a storm culvert, a car, a spare tire, or my domestic water line coming into the house?

I cannot find anything in the picture to use as a gauge for size except the occasionally eel swimming by and eels can vary greatly in size...especially those living at that depth! And the schematics I have seen on the net, do not indicate diameter, only depth of the well from the surface of the water and the ocean floor.

If this is the main leak, the pipe is 20 inches in diameter. If that's the pipe they inserted laying next to it, that would be 6 inches.

http://www.energyboom.com/policy/answering-deepwater-horizon-oil-pipe-size-question

well, looks to me like it blew , and that crater doesn't look good, this is going to be a huge problem for years to come. I can't understand why Obama, doesn't send more people that know what to do there, instead of swat teams and his group that he just announced to study the problem, we need action yesterday, not what he is doing.
this thing is going into the mississippi, this is going to contaminate water all up and down that river.

the way he is handling this, just isn't acceptable. This is killing off swamp lands and about everything it comes into contact with.HE is in way over his pay scale, he has no idea what to do.

If this is the main leak, the pipe is 20 inches in diameter

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Yup, that's the number I heard a while back. 21" outside diameter, 20" inside.

This ain't no garden hose...

Just putting this calculation here for future reference more than anything.

Feel free to check my math, irrelevant as it may be....

USGS estimates that there are 346 quintillion gallons of water total in all the earth's oceans.

I have found no good estimate for the gallons of water in the Gulf of Mexico alone but it is obviously only a small percentage of the total water on earth.

One of the highest estimates to date (as of May 23, 2010) is that the Gulf Oil spill might be as high as 55 million gallons of petroleum...so far.

Hypothetically, if the 55 million gallons of petroleum spilt to date was to evenly disperse over time, throughout all the earth's 346 quintillion gallons of water in the oceans, we would end up with 159 gallons of petroleum per quadrillion gallons of ocean water.

Or in "parts per" terminology, adjusting the decimal points: 1.6 gallons of petroleum per 10 trillion gallons of ocean water.

However, reality is that a certain percentage of the petroleum will come ashore and/or remain on the surface of the water, another percentage will solidify and sink to the ocean floor, some percentage will likely remain confined to the GoM and some will likely be swept into the Gulf Stream but this spill will NOT likely be evenly dispersed around the world. That's probably too bad actually because worldwide dispersal is possibly the lesser of the evils we are dealing with here.

Based on the "even dispersement worldwide" calculation, we would probably be much better off if it did disperse evenly such that we only had a 1.6 parts per 10 trillion situation worldwide rather than the much higher "parts per" concentration we are going to see in its relatively smaller confinement in the Gulf of Mexico or even in the Gulf Stream if it ends up there.

Of course, the "parts per" number continues to rise every moment this thing continues to spew.

But the good news, if there is any, is that the world's oceans as a whole will likely NOT be affected...the "parts per" is simply way too low to cause a worldwide problem even if the thing was to spew for many more months.

Kris

don24mac said:

If this is the main leak, the pipe is 20 inches in diameter. If that's the pipe they inserted laying next to it, that would be 6 inches.

http://www.energyboom.com/policy/answering-deepwater-horizon-oil-pipe-size-question

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Thank you!

momof23goats said:

...I can't understand why Obama, doesn't send more people that know what to do there...[T]he way he is handling this, just isn't acceptable. This is killing off swamp lands and about everything it comes into contact with. HE is in way over his pay scale, he has no idea what to do.

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I know the first reflex of many is to blame the U. S. President. But that is so wrong.

The U.S. President is doing all he can do, and he has been doing it since day one. Of course, that amounts to doing nothing. You have to wrap your head around the fact that the U.S. Federal Government can directly do nothing to resolve this issue.

The U.S. Navy has never drilled an oil well, has no drilling equipment, employs no one familiar with such technology, has no remotely controlled deep submersible vehicles, has negligible oil booms, has no skimming vessels, and has no vessels capable of separating oil from water. All this western technology and know-how is invested in western capitalistic public enterprise.

The President may not like or trust BP, but his other choice is what... enlist the assistance of Exxon? But of course, BP is already doing that. In fact, BP is using the oil industry pre-staged disaster recovery equipment and plan to its max.

I am not even sure how much anyone can blame BP. Other than failing to adequately plan for such a disaster (and apparently facilitating the disaster with their mad rush to profit), they are IMHO currently doing all that is humanly and scientifically possible to cap the well. They just may not be successful. Pray, though, that they will very soon be successful, because the leak grows every day.

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momof23goats said:

well, looks to me like it blew , and that crater doesn't look good, this is going to be a huge problem for years to come. I can't understand why Obama, doesn't send more people that know what to do there, instead of swat teams and his group that he just announced to study the problem, we need action yesterday, not what he is doing.
this thing is going into the mississippi, this is going to contaminate water all up and down that river.

the way he is handling this, just isn't acceptable. This is killing off swamp lands and about everything it comes into contact with.HE is in way over his pay scale, he has no idea what to do.

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You can't understand? Really? Why, it's perfectly clear to me. Obama is anti-oil and anti-coal. There were the coal min disasters and now the oil disaster. If his people stopped a catastrophe from happening, what excuse could he use to permanently ban oil production in the gulf? remember what Rahm Emanuel said: " Never let a crisis go to waste."

There you go....

Uhhmmm said:

I am not even sure how much anyone can blame BP. Other than failing to adequately plan for such a disaster, they are IMHO currently doing all that is humanly and scientifically possible. They just may not be successful. Pray, though, that they will very soon be successful, because the leak grows every day.

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You apparently missed the 60 minutes interview, as well as some of the other information about what appears to be gross negligence on BP's part due to them being in a hurry to get that well finished and online.

If even half the allegations are true, this was not only a preventable tragedy, but they had several warnings from people who were experts, and onsite- BEFORE it happened.

To me, that's absolutely criminal.

Summerthyme

summerthyme said:

You apparently missed the 60 minutes interview, as well as some of the other information about what appears to be gross negligence on BP's part due to them being in a hurry to get that well finished and online.

If even half the allegations are true, this was not only a preventable tragedy, but they had several warnings from people who were experts, and onsite- BEFORE it happened.

To me, that's absolutely criminal.

Summerthyme

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Thanks Summer. I did not mean to imply otherwise. I agree with you completely, as usual. I modified my post above to relieve the confusion.

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Small Plume Next to Oil Leak

Video feed screen capture from a Ticker Forum member.

More here...

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=137745

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If even half the allegations are true, this was not only a preventable tragedy, but they had several warnings from people who were experts, and onsite- BEFORE it happened.

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Reminds of the o-rings and the Challenger shuttle accident.....launch or don't launch....

Kris

So now it's heading up the Misissippi (sp) River and eventually will get in the ground/well water and his 'Hinney' El Obambam could give a rats arse. Add this whole equation up and it equals people will eventually die! Which is what ememies (in this case Obambam) always want to happen.

Any links to info about it heading UP the Mississippi River. I must not be searching for the right terminology because I cannot find anything about this.

Kris

I thought the Mississippi flowed south. How can oil flow north on ye ol' Mississip?

Kris, I couldn't find anything either, but I did find an article that Louisiana is opening some locks to try to use the Mighty Miss to flush out the oil in the marshes. That makes sense.


http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/louisiana_using_mississippi_ri.html

Louisiana using Mississippi River diversions in Gulf oil spill battle

The state has opened gates at the Bayou Lamoque freshwater diversion in Plaquemines Parish to use Mississippi River water to help protect the parish's fragile network of wetlands.
The opening will send around 7,500 cubic feet per second of river water into wetlands adjacent to Black Bay and Breton Sound, the state Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness said.
The hope is that the river water will help push any oil from the Gulf oil spill away from the coastal wetlands.
"The potential effects of this oil spill could last for decades, so we are using every means at our disposal to try to lessen the devastation the oil could inflict on our wetlands," Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Department Secretary Robert Barham said.
Garret Graves, chairman of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, said the Lamoque diversion joins several others already pressed into service.
"We have been using diversions, siphons and locks on both the east and west side for more than 10 days to try and push the oil away from our coastal wetlands. Louisiana's coastal wetlands are a maze of marshy islands, grass beds, bayous, ponds and lakes. It will be nearly impossible for us to clean the oil out of these areas for years if it gets in there," Graves said.
The state said seven diversions and siphons and one navigation lock are now in use to send river water into the coastal wetlands. The total measurable flow from these diversions is 29,550 cubic feet per second.
They are:
- Bayou Lamoque Diversion: Plaquemines Parish. 7,500 CFS (capacity 12,000)
- Davis Pond Diversion: St. Charles Parish. 10,650 CFS (capacity 10,650)
- Violet Siphon: St. Bernard Parish. 200 CFS (capacity 200)
- Caernarvon Diversion: St. Bernard Parish. 8,000 CFS (capacity 8,800)
- Whites Ditch Siphon: Plaquemines Parish. 200 CFS (capacity 200)
- Naomi Siphon: Plaquemines Parish. 1,500 CFS (capacity 1500)
- West Pointe A la Hache Siphon: Plaquemines Parish. 1,500 CFS (capacity 1500)
Officials are also considering utilizing the Bohemia Spillway in Nairn to send river water into the wetlands.

Kris Gandillon said:

Any links to info about it heading UP the Mississippi River. I must not be searching for the right terminology because I cannot find anything about this.

Kris

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They say heading towards the mouth, not actually heading up the river.. yes, that is impossible. Its basically like the beaches and coastal things.

Just like a swollen river might push water TO a mountain, but it wont go UP the mountain.

Kris Gandillon said:

Any links to info about it heading UP the Mississippi River. I must not be searching for the right terminology because I cannot find anything about this.

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Ships that ply the inter-coastal or coastal waters could traipse oil after them. The shipping along the river will be hugely impeded while TPTB set up scrubbing facilities to prevent just this.

The idea that the oil could actually go up the river seems to be an original speculation of the MOG.

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Fisher said:

Small Plume Next to Oil Leak

Video feed screen capture from a Ticker Forum member.

More here...

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=137745

Click to expand...

Seeing how that's about 1,000 feet away from the well head, I'd hope there's a really good explanation for that image.

Judging the camera angle to be low and the RIT assembly to be in a hole (more or less) below, I'd hope it's a plume which has worked it's way out of the hole by jetting into the side of the hole.

One other possibility is it could be caused by the RIT assembly if it came loose from the damaged riser. The plume could be methanol.

Anything other than those suggestions presents some uncomfortable scenarios. Like - maybe the well head, or formation has issues and there's some gas traveling on the ocean floor.

Either case would not be too surprising as the weight of the platform and a mile of 20' inch and a quarter thick riser, and a mile of six inch drill pipe, tugged the BOP stack/wellhead - less than gently on its way down. This is evident by the flattened (kinked) riser (with the 6" drill pipe still inside) at the top of the BOP. And the fact the riser pipe and six inch drill pipe broke away from the Deepwater Horizon. It's actually amazing it didn't rip the stack off the wellhead.

So, hard telling what stress it put on the 36 surface casing (below the BOP) as the rig sank. Add down hole pressures and there is a substantive element of risk.

The 36 inch surface casing pipe is set to a depth of about 500 feet below the ocean floor. There is a hanger joint at that depth where the next smaller diameter of casing (28") begins. It's possible and perhaps probable there may be an issue at that section and somewhere close to the BOP. I'd suspect farther down hole as we'd likely have seen some images of gas near the base of the well head by now.

There has been speculation killing the well by stopping the leaks in the BOP may be a bad thing. This would lead to an increase of well pressure below the BOP. If the integrity of the surface casing was compromised and subsequently breached, it would result in a leak below the wellhead.

This could result in an absolute worst case scenario. Volume could exceed 100,000 plus barrels per day for as long as down hole deposit could support the flow, several days minimum.

Then there are only two options left to kill the wild well. Relief wells (plural) and/or explosives.

As usual Fisher, always good to see what you post!

Curious about this years cane season, when should we expect the first TD to form?

BTW I keep updating this thread with information as it becomes available.

Gulf Oil Spill Gets Worse And Worse-Gigantic PLUMES at Differing Depths!
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?p=3741918

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