DISASTER Gulf oil spill may be 19 times bigger than originally thought

Posted on Wed, May. 19, 2010

Gulf oil spill may be 19 times bigger than originally thought

Renee Schoof and Lauren French | McClatchy Newspapers
last updated: May 19, 2010 09:05:09 PM

WASHINGTON — The latest glimpse of video footage of the oil spill deep under the Gulf of Mexico indicates that around 95,000 barrels, or 4 million gallons, a day of crude oil may be spewing from the leaking wellhead, 19 times the previous estimate, an engineering professor told Congress Wednesday.

The figure of 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day that BP and the federal government have been using for weeks is based on observations of the surface slick made by satellites and aircraft. Even NASA's satellite-based instruments, however, can't see deep into the waters of the gulf, where much of the oil from the gusher seems to be floating. The well is 5,000 feet below the surface.

Adm. Thad Allen, the commandant of the Coast Guard, said in an interview Wednesday that he'd had many conversations over the past week or more with other government science officials about how to get a more precise calculation of the flow, a better estimate of the total oil in the gulf since the April 20 explosion and an accurate assessment of what's happening to the oil on the surface.

Allen said his advisers are considering putting sensors near the leak that would give a better understanding of the amount of oil entering the water. "It's coming together very nicely. I'm satisfied we'll have the right people," he said. It's not yet known when the equipment would be ready to use, he added.

Sonar equipment already has been used to try to figure out how well chemical dispersants are working at deep levels, Allen said.

"I don't mean to be glib, but it's kind of hard to measure the amount of water you're putting on a fire while you're fighting a fire," he said. Federal agencies got as much equipment assembled as they could to keep the oil away from shore by skimming, burning and other measures, he said.

There's also limited space for the robotic vehicles to work near the spill site as BP engineers try to contain the spill, which is the top priority, he said.

Allen announced plans to assemble the team of experts to measure the size of the spill during hearings on Tuesday. NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said that it would be important, but difficult, to figure out the amount of oil from the ruptured wellhead.

Steve Wereley, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind., earlier this month made simple calculations from a single video BP released on May 12 and calculated a flow of 70,000 barrels a day, NPR reported last week.

On Wednesday, Wereley told a House of Representatives Energy and Commerce subcommittee that his calculations of two leaks that are on videos BP released on Tuesday showed 70,000 barrels from one leak and 25,000 from the other.

He said the margin of error was about 20 percent, making the spill between 76,000 and 104,000 barrels a day. However, Wereley said he'd need to see videos that showed the flow over a longer period to get a better calculation of the mix of oil and gas from the wellhead.

Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., who led the hearing, said he'd work to get that information from BP.

"The true extent of this spill remains a mystery," Markey said. He said BP had said that the flow rate was not relevant to the cleanup effort. "This faulty logic that BP is using is . . . raising concerns that they are hiding the full extent of the damage of this leak."

Markey said he wrote to BP last week asking how it made its estimate and whether it had refused offers by scientists to provide better estimates. He said BP merely sent back an acknowledgement of the receipt of his letter, but didn't answer.

Richard Camilli, an associate scientist in the department of applied ocean physics and engineering at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, told Markey and others on the panel that he responded to a request for help from BP on May 1 to get a look inside the failed blowout preventer.

Camilli develops instrument sensors and robotic technology to detect pollution in the ocean below the surface. He suggested using multi-beam sonar and an acoustic current profiler to measure the flow of oil and gas. That would help scientists determine if the blowout preventer was partially constricted and what happened to it, he said.

BP was at first interested, but a few days later declined the offer.

Camilli said the same instruments could be used to estimate the total spill volume.

Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., asked Camilli and the other scientists who testified if knowing the amount was important.

"Absolutely," Camilli said. "It's like balancing your checkbook. You have to know where the oil has gone, where the gas has gone, and what the eventual fate will be."

Wereley said it's crucial to know the rate of the flow of oil to figure out what could stop it.

Frank Muller-Karger, a professor of biological oceanography and remote sensing at the University of South Florida, said it's important to know the real amount of the spill.

In another hearing on Wednesday, the chair of the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship pressed officials from the Small Business Administration and the Government Accountability Office to streamline the loan process for business owners in the wake of the spill.

Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said she's concerned that small business will fail while waiting for financial relief.

James Rivera, an associate administrator in the Small Business Administration, said his office made strides, streamlining the process for applicants and allowing existing borrowers to deter loan payments.

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BP touts containment efforts; heavy oil reaches Louisiana wetlands

By the CNN Wire Staff

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Cleanup efforts have made "measurable difference" on ocean surface, BP says

Louisiana governor says thicker oil than previously seen has hit wetlands

BP says it hopes to begin effort to "mud" well shut as early as Sunday

U.S., Cuba in communication about projected movement of oil

New Orleans, Louisiana (CNN) -- BP said Wednesday that efforts to contain and clean up oil gushing from a ruptured pipe in the Gulf of Mexico have made a "measurable difference" even as Louisiana's governor announced that thick, heavy oil has begun polluting the state's wetlands and estuaries.

Doug Suttles, BP's chief operating officer for exploration and production, said at a news conference that the company is "very pleased" with the performance of an insertion tube that was put in place over the weekend to suck crude oil from the well and funnel it to a surface vessel.

The flow rate from the tube has reached 3,000 barrels of crude (126,000 gallons) and 14 million cubic feet of gas a day, Suttles said, adding that crews hope to increase those numbers in coming days.

He said favorable weather conditions have also played a major role in cleanup efforts. About 14,000 barrels of oily water was skimmed Tuesday, and 50 percent of that mixture was oil, he said, adding that crews continue to deploy boom and conduct controlled burns.

But Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana says the efforts haven't stopped oil from reaching his state's coastline. Thicker, heavier oil than seen in previous days has blanketed some of the state's precious interior wetlands, he said, and he called for the Army Corps of Engineers to approve an emergency permit to dredge sand from barrier islands to create sand booms as another line of defense.

"These are not tar balls, this is not sheen, this is heavy oil that we are seeing in our wetlands," Jindal said.

Video from Pass a Loutre in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, showed oil with a syrupy consistency lapping against reeds in a small area of marshland after creeping past booms and barriers.

"Everything that that blanket of oil has covered today will die," parish President Billy Nungesser said.

"Imagine [this oil] on top of a turtle or on top of a frog," he said as he held a stalk of reed that coated his hands in oil.

CNN iReporter Eileen Romero, touring the state's Chandeleur Islands by boat on Tuesday, described a "foamy sheen on top of the water" left by the oil and dispersants, and she said she counted between 10 and 15 dead Portuguese man-of-wars trapped in debris.

"While we were out there, my nose and the back of my throat began to burn as I inhaled the putrid-smelling air," Romero said.

Jindal compared the fight to head off the approaching oil to "knowing your body has cancer. ... We've got to stop this cancer from spreading [and] we'd much rather fight it on these coastal barrier islands than inland."

"We need more than just boom or skimmers," Jinadal said. "We need multiple lines of defense."

Meanwhile, BP said it is continuing to mobilize equipment and perform testing in preparation for the first effort to actually stop the flow of oil.

Suttles said the first attempt at a "top kill" procedure could come as early as Sunday.

In that procedure, a large amount of heavy "mud" -- a fluid used as a lubricant and counterweight in drilling operations -- is inserted into the well bore. If that succeeds, the well will be cemented shut, officials have said.

Suttles cautioned, as he has with previous efforts, that the procedure will be performed at a depth of 5,000 feet, "which has never been done before."

"We're absolutely holding out hope that top kill works," said Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry. "Everybody is anxious to see success with this intervention. ... Let's keep our fingers crossed [and] let's all say our prayers."

Oil has been leaking at an estimated rate of 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons) a day for nearly a month after an April 20 explosion aboard the drilling rig the Deepwater Horizon. The rig burned for two days and then sank, causing the ruptured pipe.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. State Department said it has been in communication with Cuban officials over the possibility of oil reaching that country's shorelines.

"The U.S. Interests Section in Havana today delivered a diplomatic note to the Cuban Foreign Ministry informing the Cuban government about the oil spill and what we currently know about its projected movement," the State Department's deputy spokesman, Mark Toner, told CNN. "We have had working level discussions with the Cuban government to keep them informed of developments."

The communication came after reports of oil possibly reaching the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. The current flows through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico, and then northward, where it loops and exits the Gulf just south of the Florida Keys and travels to the west side of the western Bahamas.

The European Space Agency issued a statement Wednesday saying satellite images show the oil is in the Loop Current.

"With these images from space, we have visible proof that at least oil from the surface of the water has reached the current," Bertrand Chapron of Ifremer, the French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea, said in the statement.

Charlie Henry of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday that amounts of light sheen "are feeling the effects of the Loop Current and that oil is going to move slowly" with the current.

"We actually expect that oil to dissipate," said Henry, adding it was "not an immediate threat" to Florida or other shorelines.

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SassyinAZ said:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/05/19/v-print/94489/gulf-oil-spill-may-be-19-times.html

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mikedonathan said:

I'm just wondering if this is really as bad as some are letting on.

Just after the first gulf war when the Iraqis left the Kuwait wells burning and spewing oil, a then client of mine was an employee of the Bechtel Corp which had gotten the contract to clean things up. My client was a dozer operator who had been working in Turkey before going to Kuwait. He told me the oil had spread all over the desert and that they'd pushed up retaining walls with their equipment in attempts to contain it. A year after the fires and into the next growing season, he said the grass was so lush and green where the oil had been, the locals were fighting over herding rights for their animals.

As a kid in Colorado back in the fifties, there was a pool of petroleum that constantly bubbled and belched near a place my dad use to take us fishing. I don't recall the location other than it was well off the highway and we used the jeep to get there. What I remember most was the lushness of the marsh grass around and the variety of animals that made their home in the area.

Oil is a naturally occuring compound that's been around for eons so I'd imagine it will create a variety of ecological niches that will be exploited by some types of life. Probably not what's present now but something else will thrive on what is created.

Not to say the spill won't create havoc with the current environment and inflict substantial economic damage on the status quo but it will most likely create opportunities for the flexible.

Even if the spill were 10 million barrels, it's just a speck in the volumn of the sea and considering the deadly plumes that are rising from the mid-ocean ridges without causing a catastrophe, we may be worrying over what will prove to be very little.

JMHO

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Brutus said:

This is just a rehash of the same unfounded, pseudo-scientific bullshit that's been floating around here for a week or longer.

No slam on you, Sassy. You might not have seen the previous iterations.

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SassyinAZ said:

Nawwww, it is current, projections based on the video ..."released on Wednesday" that's today.

I should have posted to this thread though, so cross-linking:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=361366&page=2

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mikedonathan said:

I'm just wondering if this is really as bad as some are letting on.

Just after the first gulf war when the Iraqis left the Kuwait wells burning and spewing oil, a then client of mine was an employee of the Bechtel Corp which had gotten the contract to clean things up. My client was a dozer operator who had been working in Turkey before going to Kuwait. He told me the oil had spread all over the desert and that they'd pushed up retaining walls with their equipment in attempts to contain it. A year after the fires and into the next growing season, he said the grass was so lush and green where the oil had been, the locals were fighting over herding rights for their animals.

As a kid in Colorado back in the fifties, there was a pool of petroleum that constantly bubbled and belched near a place my dad use to take us fishing. I don't recall the location other than it was well off the highway and we used the jeep to get there. What I remember most was the lushness of the marsh grass around and the variety of animals that made their home in the area.

Oil is a naturally occuring compound that's been around for eons so I'd imagine it will create a variety of ecological niches that will be exploited by some types of life. Probably not what's present now but something else will thrive on what is created.

Not to say the spill won't create havoc with the current environment and inflict substantial economic damage on the status quo but it will most likely create opportunities for the flexible.

Even if the spill were 10 million barrels, it's just a speck in the volumn of the sea and considering the deadly plumes that are rising from the mid-ocean ridges without causing a catastrophe, we may be worrying over what will prove to be very little.

JMHO

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Usually Curious said:

From what I've read it's the dispersant that is so deadly. That same dispersant is blamed for the debacle of the Valdez and the oil STILL damaging the shore there. Not to mention, BP bigwigs own a lot of stock in the company that makes the dispersant.

The chemical dispersant sounds like bad news all the way round.

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Aardaerimus said:

1.) Drill a controlled secondary hole with forked pipe, and check valve on secondary.

2.) Pump from primary to relieve pressure on leaking spout.

3.) Then either cap the pressure-relieved hole directly - OR from the inside, using the secondary pipe channel to insert an object or inject a sealer, allowing the internal pressure to cap itself.

It would be kind of like those flat tire fixes.

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