WAR Bogota sent a mobile brigade and two battalions to the border with Venezuela

[onetimer]

# AFP: Colombia warned that its forces were on maximum alert, were prepared to defend against any attack amid rising tensions with Venezuela. about 1 hour ago from BNO Headquarters

# Colombian Defense Minister Gabriel Silva issued the warning after a meeting of the country's national security council in Arauca. about 1 hour ago from BNO Headquarters

# El Tiempo: Bogota sent a mobile brigade and two battalions to the border with Venezuela amid rising tensions with Caracas. 37 minutes ago from BNO Headquarters

[onetimer]

YESTERDAY

Colombia Says Venezuelan Soldiers Blew Up 2 Border Bridges

Thursday, November 19, 2009

* Print
*

BOGOTA — Venezuelan soldiers blew up two pedestrian bridges across the Colombia-Venezuelan border, Colombia's government said Thursday, according to Reuters.

It is the latest incident in what is an already-strained relationship.

Colombian Defense Minister Gabriel Silva said explosives were used to blow up the bridges in what he called a violation of international law, Reuters reported.

"Uniformed men, apparently from the Venezuelan army, arrived in trucks on the Venezuelan side at two pedestrian bridges that link communities on both sides ... and then proceeded to dynamite them," Silva said, according to Reuters.

Reuters contributed to this report.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,575785,00.html

[onetimer]

SCENARIOS: How far will Colombia-Venezuela crisis worsen?
Fri Nov 20, 2009 3:31pm EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsM...5AJ4E320091120

By Patrick Markey

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Venezuelan troops this week blew up two makeshift bridges spanning the frontier with Colombia in the latest incident to stoke tensions between two South American neighbors caught up in a long dispute.

Relations soured further after President Hugo Chavez urged army commanders to prepare for war. The leftist says a Colombian plan to allow U.S. troops more access to its bases sets the stage for U.S.-backed attack against his OPEC nation.

While in the past Chavez and President Alvaro Uribe managed to pull back from the brink, most analysts say the current crisis will be more difficult to resolve and acutely raises the risk of a violent incident on the border.

Here are some possible scenarios in the dispute:

SMALL-SCALE BORDER INCIDENT, ACCIDENTAL CLASH

While robust bilateral trade in the past acted as a deterrent, security experts and analysts say there is now an increased risk of a clash along the frontier where both countries maintain a strong military presence. Belligerent rhetoric, illegal armed groups, increased military presence and protests over border closures create a volatile cocktail.

With little communication between the governments, an accidental exchange of gunfire or a clash spilling over from an unintentional border incursion are more likely than a planned assault, analysts say. Violence could also flare from an incident involving an illegal armed group such as Colombia's FARC rebels. But any confrontation will be sudden, small-scale and quickly contained.

"Our current assessment is that the possibility of a clash is very real," said Christian Le Miere, editor of Jane's Intelligence Weekly. "More likely will be some kind of clash along the border, either through regular forces or perhaps involving irregular forces such as the FARC."

SIMMERING TENSIONS AS ELECTIONS APPROACH

With both Colombia and Venezuela holding elections next year, analysts expect tensions to simmer as the two governments engage in an Andean-style "Cold War". Diplomatic exchanges and accusations of espionage will likely keep relations sour.

Chavez may want to ward off criticism over domestic problems such as high inflation and power and water shortages that have hit his popularity and shore up support before legislative elections in September 2010. Presenting Colombia as an aggressor backed by "imperialist" Washington may bolsters his image as a flagbearer of anti-U.S. sentiment.

Venezuelan officials have used recent violence along the border to hammer opposition politicians who control frontier states. Governors say that is just propaganda tactics.

Uribe, mulling a possible reelection next year, may also gain points from tensions as many Colombians still see him as a steady hand in dealing with the country's security situation.

FULL-BLOWN CONFRONTATION

Despite aggressive words, there is little appetite on either side for an full-blown conflict. Both governments -- Chavez more than Uribe -- may have domestic reasons for keeping tensions high. But full-scale confrontation would bring little political gain. Still, Colombia's armed forces are more geared up for dealing with its guerrilla insurgency rather than a border war. Chavez has built up his armed forces with modern Russia military hardware, including high-performance Sukhoi fighter jets that give him air superiority. But wider conflict also risks drawing in the United States.

"It is unlikely to spiral out of control so the maximum we now envisage is that we have some kind of small-scale military conflict that will be contained relatively quickly," said Christian Voelkel, a risk analyst at IHS Global Insight.

INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION

The Organization of American States is urging talks and Brazil has offered to negotiate an end to the crisis. Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has invited the presidents to a summit. But the two sides seem more entrenched than in past disputes when they were able to resolve their differences with handshakes and a face-to-face meeting now looks unlikely.

(Reporting by Patrick Markey in Bogota, editing by Anthony Boadle)

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use......
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...112200911.html

Venezuela to get 300 tanks, armored vehicles

The Associated Press
Sunday, November 22, 2009 12:53 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez is hailing the forthcoming arrival of 300 Russian-made tanks and armored vehicles, and urging civilians to join government-organized militias to be ready to defend Venezuela from a foreign invasion.

Chavez called on his supporters to undergo military training and join the militias during a Saturday speech that ended around midnight, saying he thinks "it's the obligation" of every member of his socialist party to participate in an ongoing effort to "organize combat groups."

Chavez, a former paratroop commander, said more than 300 armored vehicles and Russian war tanks, including T-72 battle tanks, will be arriving in Venezuela along with radar and air defense systems.

Venezuela has already bought more than $4 billion worth of Russian arms since 2005, including 24 Sukhoi fighter jets, dozens of attack helicopters and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles. And in September, Russia opened a $2.2 billion line of credit for Venezuela to purchase more weapons.

The military acquisitions, coupled with weapons purchases among South American nations including Brazil and Ecuador, have raised concerns of an arms race in the region.

Venezuela must prepare for a possible armed conflict, Chavez said, because the United States and Colombia could attack. He claims U.S. "imperialists" want to undermine his "Bolivarian Revolution," a political movement named after 19th-century independence hero Simon Bolivar.

He vehemently denied that Venezuela plans to attack its neighbor.

Venezuela and Colombia have been feuding for months over the agreement between Bogota and Washington allowing the U.S. military to increase its presence at seven Colombian bases under a 10-year lease agreement.

Colombian and U.S. officials say the deal is necessary to more effectively help Colombia fight drug traffickers and leftist rebels, but Chavez claims the agreement poses a threat to Venezuela.

"We are the No. 1 target on the imperial map of this continent," he said.

[denfoote]

Guess who "O" is gonna support???

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use......
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6927299.ece

From Times Online
November 22, 2009
Hugo Chávez praises Carlos the Jackal
Hannah Strange in Caracas
Comments

President Chávez has courted more controversy by lauding Carlos the Jackal, the Venezuelan terrorist notorious for carrying out bombings, kidnappings and hijackings across Europe, as a “revolutionary fighter” who was imprisoned unjustly for defending the Palestinian people.

The Venezuelan President praised Carlos — whose real name is Ilich Ramirez Sanchez — as “one of the great fighters of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation”, denying that he was a terrorist and insisting that his lifetime imprisonment in France was unfair.

“I defend him,” he said in a speech in Caracas on Friday night. “It doesn’t matter to me what they say tomorrow in Europe.”

Ramirez was jailed for life in France in 1997 for the 1975 murders of two French secret agents and an alleged informant. He was captured in Sudan in 1994 by French agents acting on a CIA tip and whisked to Paris in a sack. Mr Chávez said this amounted to kidnap.

Related Links

* Chavez threatens to cut ties with Colombia

* Obama shakes hands with Hugo Chavez

He has admitted to leading a 1975 attack on the Opec headquarters in Vienna, killing three people and taking 70 hostage.

He has also been blamed for the 1976 hijacking of an Air France jet en route to Uganda, a series of bomb attacks in Paris, shooting and wounding Edward Sieff, the president of Marks and Spencer, at his London home and a grenade attack on the English headquarters of an Israeli bank.

Most infamously, it is believed that he was the “godfather” behind the murders of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972.

It is not the first time that Mr Chávez has waded into controversy over Carlos the Jackal, who retains a small but ardent following in socialist Venezuela. After taking office in 1999, the former paratrooper provoked international uproar when he wrote to Ramirez in prison, addressing him as “Dear Compatriot”, and has previously described him as a friend.

Addressing Friday’s gathering of socialist politicians from 40 countries, Mr Chávez claimed that Ramirez had paid the price for his defence of the Palestinian cause. “How many Palestinians keep dying?” he said. “They accuse him of being a terrorist but Carlos really was a revolutionary fighter.”

Mr Chávez sought to defend leaders he said were wrongly branded “bad guys”, heaping praise on President Ahmadinejad of Iran — who is to visit Venezuela later this week — and Zimbabwe’s President Mugabe, whom he called “brothers”.

He also drew the wrath of Ugandans after casting doubt on the crimes of Idi Amin, the Ugandan dictator. “We thought he was a cannibal,” said Mr Chávez of Amin, whose regime was notorious for torturing and killing suspected opponents in the 1970s. “I have doubts ... Maybe he was a great nationalist, a patriot.”

A spokesman for President Museveni of Uganda countered that about 300,000 Ugandans had died under Amin’s brutal regime.

During his decade in office Mr Chávez has built up close alliances with foes of Washington around the globe such as Fidel Castro, the former Cuban leader. He recently hosted Mr Mugabe at a summit n Venezuela and invited President Bashir of Sudan to Caracas after claiming the international warrant for his arrest for genocide in Darfur was based on racism.

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use.....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...ThSCQD9C4ORM00

Venezuela: No direct talks with Colombia on bases

By CHRISTOPHER TOOTHAKER (AP) – 1 hour ago

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela has no interest in talking directly to Colombia to end a monthslong crisis but would support an effort by other South American nations to broker a solution, a top government official said Sunday.

Deputy Foreign Minister Francisco Arias Cardenas said tensions between Caracas and Bogota should be taken up by the Union of South American Nations, a 12-member organization known as Unasur.

Any mediation efforts aimed at easing ongoing tensions between Colombia and Venezuela "must be done within the heart of Unasur," Arias Cardenas said during a televised interview.

The diplomat spoke a day after President Hugo Chavez urged civilians to join government-organized militias to be ready to defend Venezuela from a foreign invasion. He said he thinks "it's the obligation" of every member of his socialist party to participate in an ongoing effort to organize combat groups.

Chavez, a former paratroop commander, said the 300 armored vehicles and Russian war tanks that are due to arrive in Venezuela soon along with radar and air defense systems, will help the country's military expand its operational capacity.

Venezuela has already bought more than $4 billion worth of Russian arms since 2005, including 24 Sukhoi fighter jets, dozens of attack helicopters and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles. And in September, Russia opened a $2.2 billion line of credit for Venezuela to purchase more weapons.

The military acquisitions, coupled with weapons purchases among South American nations including Brazil and Ecuador, have raised concerns of an arms race in the region.

Venezuela must prepare for a possible armed conflict, Chavez said, because the United States and Colombia could attack. He claims U.S. "imperialists" want to undermine his "Bolivarian Revolution," a political movement named after 19th-century independence hero Simon Bolivar.

He vehemently denied that Venezuela plans to attack its neighbor.

Venezuela and Colombia have been feuding for months over the agreement between Bogota and Washington allowing the U.S. military to increase its presence at seven Colombian bases under a 10-year lease agreement.

Colombian and U.S. officials say the deal is necessary to more effectively help Colombia fight drug traffickers and leftist rebels, but Chavez claims the agreement poses a threat to Venezuela.

"We are the No. 1 target on the imperial map of this continent," he said.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use......
http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=86248

Published: Sunday, November 22, 2009
Bylined to: Guy Hursthouse

Venezuelan-Colombian war of words reignites: What next for Chavez?

- Signing of US-Colombian military base pact and border violence prompts a vigilant Chavez to tell his generals and the country's citizens to "prepare for war."

- Brazilian mediation machine cranks into action, but as Lula aide encourages dialogue and offers "help to monitor the [border] region," Chavez proves less than fully receptive.

- "Chavez has gone too far," asserts a weary El Pais editorial, while Semana asks, "How crazy is he?"

- Chavez isolates himself further, as water and electricity shortages plague Venezuela, generating public discontent.

Council on Hemispheric Affairs-COHA research fellow Guy Hursthouse writes: Three months after COHA's last memorandum on the subject of sizzling Venezuelan-Colombian relations posited that "the current suspension of diplomatic relations may last considerably longer than before," that prediction is beginning to look almost conservative. Diplomacy has been off the agenda since late July, and since the beginning of November, relations between Caracas and Bogota have plunged to uncharted depths under their current leaders. What began the previous week as a repeat of March 2008's brief deployment of troops to Venezuela's Western border -- on that occasion a response by President Hugo Chavez to the assassination by Colombian troops of FARC leader Raul Reyes on Ecuadoran soil -- escalated last Sunday, November 8 into an outright call to arms. "Let's not waste a day on our main mission: we prepare for war and help the people prepare for war," Chavez implored the viewers of his weekly 'Alo Presidente' television show.

Events have since taken a fairly familiar course; regional furor was followed by an apparent climb-down from Chavez, who the following Wednesday insisted that his original comments had in fact been made with solely defensive intentions in mind, and had simply been misconstrued. Nevertheless, his angry rhetoric has continued and the international community has scrambled to attempt to diffuse the situation (largely in the form of diplomacy from Brasilia and Madrid). In spite of their apparently predictable pattern, a number of regional media outlets have speculated that these latest developments hint at a far more dangerous scenario in Venezuelan-Colombian relations than the almost jocose scripts seen before. Is this just our latest dose of Chavez' bellicose but largely toothless rhetoric, or are we finally set to witness some truly explosive military action? In either case, what does this latest stand-off mean for the rapidly shifting fortunes of one of Latin America's most extraordinary figures, the Venezuelan president?

Old Sagas, New Developments

As COHA has previously maintained, the rationale behind July's suspension of bilateral relations by Chavez was twofold. On the one hand were Colombian accusations that weapons discovered in a FARC cache in Ecuador had originally been imported by the Venezuelan state. On the other was an agreement reached between Washington and Bogota in mid-July, which would see the US increase its military presence in Colombia with access to seven military bases. The US-Colombian agreement was signed on October 30, making it the basis once again for the latest round of threats and recriminations between the two disputatious Andean neighbors.

Chavez' ire over the pact's signing has been compounded by a recent increase in the level of violence along the Colombia-Venezuela border. On November 2, two sergeants in the Venezuelan National Guard, Gerardo Zambrano and Senir Lopez, were murdered near San Antonio de Tachira, a Venezuelan border town, and, according to El Pais, the most utilized crossing between Venezuela and Colombia. The newspaper reported that Chavez' Vice-President and Minister of Defense, Ramon Carrizalez, declared the deaths as marking the beginning of a conspiratorial plan by Bogota against Venezuela, which was linked to the "installation" of the "seven Yankee bases" in Colombia. Carrizalez had offered a similar interpretation after the bodies of 11 amateur footballers -- mostly Colombians -- were discovered on October 24. On November 1, BBC reported that he had labeled the victims as "part of a 'paramilitary infiltration' of Venezuela which was planning to emerge in Caracas and other major cities to destabilize the … government.'"

Despite Carrizalez' assertions, the culprits in both cases are still unknown. Some have suggested that the ELN (a much smaller Colombian guerrilla force than the FARC), were responsible for the October 24 crime, others that the National Guardsmen were killed by paramilitaries operating a cross-border protection and smuggling racket from San Antonio. In addition to these two sets of murders, the Venezuelan government claimed on October 27 to have arrested a number of members of the Colombian secret service (the DAS), who in the words of Deputy Foreign Minister Francisco Arias Cardenas were "captured carrying out actions of espionage." Despite DAS' long track record of lawlessness and complicity in atrocities connected to Colombia's internal struggle, proof has not yet been forthcoming of these particular allegations.

The Economist recently reported the effects of Chavez' freezing of trade with Colombia in the state of Tachira, saying that the move "has thrown many people out of work … aggravating a climate of lawlessness there." Indeed, an El Pais report last week documented the actions of paramilitaries working in the border area whom, since greater restrictions were placed on the border crossing by Chavez around three weeks ago, have stepped up their threats, in particular against the National Guard. "We have taken the irrevocable decision to attack [the Guard and those collaborating with them] with violence," asserted one group in late October. Seemingly concerned about the supposed Colombian origin of this string of recent violent incidents, on November 5 Chavez made his decision to send 15,000 troops to the border, and three days later made a televised call to arms.

An Imminent Threat to Security?

However, it is hard to believe that Chavez genuinely envisions the United States using its newly reinforced and expanded position in Colombia as a platform from which to launch a military attack. While he might need to worry about future administrations, for Barack Obama such a move would be politically detrimental -- if not suicidal -- and hardly features high on his list of foreign policy concerns. As for Colombia itself, as far as El Pais was concerned last week, "although pleading on its knees to Washington, not for all the gold in the world was it going to attack [Venezuela]."

Without a doubt this is an exaggeration, as economic concerns are one of the major disincentives for a war between the two countries, a point which COHA made in its August communique. Currently, Colombia is worried about the impact of a conflict on its trade with Venezuela -- give Bogota all the gold in the world, and this barrier to confrontation would evaporate. In addition, the notion that Colombian paramilitaries are operating across the border is not particularly far-fetched, even if their threat to Venezuelan national security is probably being exaggerated by Caracas.

Nevertheless, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has demonstrated a degree of calm in this instance where, regardless of the validity of his concerns, Chavez would have done well to emulate him. While Colombian officials apparently met to discuss their capability of defeating Caracas in the event of a conflict, their primary reaction was to refer Chavez' remarks to the United Nations last Wednesday. Moreover, when the Colombian navy captured four Venezuelan National Guardsmen in Colombian waters in the Vichada border province on Friday, Uribe sent them home the following day, saying: "They should carry back the message that here, there is brotherly affection for Venezuela and that affection is unbreakable."

In contrast, on Saturday night at a ceremony to highlight the plight of the Cuban Five -- who are imprisoned in the United States having been convicted of espionage after monitoring terrorist groups in Florida hostile to the current Cuban regime -- Chavez responded to the Colombian overtures by saying "I have nothing to discuss with Uribe the mafioso." Earlier in the day, he had rejected Brasilia's offers of help in mediation and monitoring along the border, claiming that it would violate Venezuela's sovereignty. Appearing on the latest edition of 'Alo Presidente' this Sunday, Chavez reiterated his fear that the US intended to spy on Venezuela, rather than use its agreement with Bogota for the declared anti-narcotics purposes. According to El Universal, he suggested that Obama and Uribe should "go and jump in a lake."

Nevertheless, Chavez has always been, if not 'all mouth and no trousers,' a politician for whom there has existed something of an 'implementation gap' between rhetoric and inevitable inaction. As the Economist put it last week, "Chavez' belligerent rhetoric trades at a substantial discount." Indeed, Semana concluded recently that rather than being a sign of madness, he has used this rhetorical tool throughout his political career merely as a means of harnessing support. However, the Washington Post and the Economist last week both cited a poll carried out in mid-September by research firm Datanalisis, that found Venezuelans opposed war with Colombia by a margin of four to one. If a war would be near-impossible for Venezuela to win given the inferiority of its armed forces against a combined Colombian-US defense force, it would be even harder for the effort to succeed without popular support. This is a fact which -- along with the unlikelihood of any US intention to attack Caracas -- Chavez must privately acknowledge.

Chavez Floundering?

This altercation is perhaps not so much a threat to Latin American security, as it is to the credibility of Chavez' Bolivarian project and Venezuela's potential standing in the region. In other words, the Venezuelan President may have cried wolf one too many times. If the reaction of Brazil is to become the yardstick by which such things are measured, then this time Chavez' international problems could be considerable.

As recently as October 29, international media outlets carried photographs of Chavez and Brazilian President Lula celebrating a breakthrough in regional relations, as Brazil's Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved Caracas' long-running attempt to achieve full membership in Mercosur -- the common market of the Southern Cone. The matter was due to be put on the Brazilian Senate agenda this past Wednesday, November 11, and was widely expected to pass. However, allies of Lula, and thus Chavez, put off the planned vote as a consequence of the latest "crisis." Even if recent events fail to hinder the Senate's decision when the vote is rescheduled, Chavez still has to negotiate Paraguayan approval of Venezuela's membership, which will not automatically be achieved.

Moreover, as last Thursday's El Pais editorial pointed out, Chavez' rhetoric could now be seen as reinforcing Colombia's rationale in seeking a heightened US military presence -- at the very least, it provides Uribe's administration with a handy justification and the ability to regularly utilize the refrain of 'self defense.' In taking such a brash rhetorical stand, Chavez could be shooting himself in the foot in the long as well as the short term when it comes to criticizing the actions of his enemy and neighbor. If Chavez is genuinely worried about the security policies that Bogota is pursuing, such as an apparently lax attitude towards the re-emergence of paramilitaries, then he has chosen a poor method of combating them. Even though Uribe is more sinister than prudent at heart, aggressive rhetoric now will ensure Chavez is taken less seriously in the future. For a man so apparently keen on the idea of regional cooperation, Chavez has been far too quick to shun other ways of expressing his concern. There is little doubt that many of his fellow leaders are uncomfortable with the actions of Uribe's Colombia, and joining them in a chorus of concern through a regional forum would have been a much more constructive way forward.

Finally, not the least of Chavez' worries are on the domestic front. Not only do an overwhelming majority of Venezuelans disapprove of their leader's approach towards Bogota, but increasing numbers are disillusioned with their day-to-day lives under Chavez. Since November 2, water has been rationed in Venezuela; the same day on which the government introduced a plan to save electricity. In Caracas, each of the city's neighborhoods is without running water for at least two days every week. Chavez has urged the public to take "lightening showers" of just three minutes, and to become accustomed to bathing in the early hours of the morning, armed with a flashlight. Even before these recent austerity measures, in early October, Datanalisis found 66% of Venezuelans dissatisfied with the government's moves to resolve the electricity crisis. Moreover, the same survey found "70% critical of Chavez' policies to create employment" and that 87% thought the government had done little to ensure the personal security of its citizens, according to El Pais.

One Step too Many?

Citing the case of Leopoldo Galtieri and Argentina's 1982 Falklands war with the British, an editorial in the Washington Post last Thursday discussed the chances of conflict on this occasion: "In the annals of the region's authoritarian populism, stranger things have happened." While asking "how crazy is [Chavez]?" this past Saturday, Semana seized upon this musing, suggesting "that is what some in Colombia think. And nobody who knows him would dare say that [war] will not happen." And in evaluating the "crisis in Venezuela," last Thursday's El Pais editorial asserted that this time, "Chavez has gone too far."

Has Chavez gone too far? The answer to that question depends on how it is interpreted. He has isolated his country from a key trading partner, and may have slowed -- if not halted -- its progress towards a common market with a host of potential partners at exactly the time Venezuela is struggling to cope with providing basic utilities. In addition, from a domestic point of view, he is faced with a population which is overwhelmingly opposed to the country entering a conflict with its neighbor, and becoming increasingly dissatisfied with its standard of living.

*

Militarily, Venezuela cannot seriously be considered on the brink of war, and is extremely unlikely to be in the near future.

In this sense, the President, by virtue of his characteristic inaction, has not gone too far. But ask a resident of Caracas -- or, indeed, Tachira -- that same question, and the response is likely to differ.

One thing Chavez does have on his side is time; he is only halfway through his term.

To reverse the situation will require him to stop his attempt at masking domestic problems with noisy foreign policy implications, and to put away his "drums of war" (as El Tiempo put it this Sunday) -- even though this rhetoric is seemingly so fundamental to his political project that they are unlikely to be decommissioned in the near future.

http://www.coha.org/deja-vu-in-venez...ian-relations-
as-war-of-words-reignites-what-next-for-chavez/

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use......
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,576191,00.html

Chavez to Fidel Castro: Venezuela Awaits You

Sunday, November 22, 2009

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is inviting his mentor Fidel Castro to visit Venezuela during the coming months.

Chavez read aloud a letter to the 83-year-old former Cuban leader during a televised speech Saturday night, saying "Venezuela awaits you." Chavez proposed that Castro visit at some point between now and April, during a congress of his socialist party.

The 83-year-old Castro has not been seen in public since undergoing a series of emergency intestinal surgeries in July 2006. He handed the Cuban presidency to his brother Raul but has continued writing essays published by state media.

Chavez also has invited Castro to a mid-December meeting of the regional ALBA trade bloc in Havana, saying he is well enough to attend.

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use......
http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/11/24/c...n-the-warpath/

Chavez on the warpath
Nov 24, 2009 by Luiza Ch. Savage

Even as Barack Obama continues to consider deploying more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, another conflict involving U.S. soldiers has been intensifying in Washington’s own backyard. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has recently exceeded his traditional incendiary anti-American rhetoric with talk of war with neighbouring Colombia, a long-time U.S. ally which since 2000 has hosted U.S. troops as part of an anti-drug effort. Chávez has gone so far as to mass 15,000 soldiers on his border with Colombia, where in recent weeks there has been a spate of slayings related to tensions between Venezuelan and Colombian paramilitary groups. On Nov. 8, he ordered his military to prepare for possible armed conflict. “The best way to avoid war is preparing for it,” Chávez told officers on a weekly TV and radio program. Of the U.S., Chávez said, “The empire is more threatening than ever,” and warned Obama to not “make a mistake” in ordering an attack on Venezuela.

The object of Chávez’s fury is an agreement signed on Oct. 30 between the conservative government in Bogotá and Washington that will increase access to seven Colombian military bases for U.S. troops, aircraft and warships assisting Colombia with its struggle against drug traffickers. The 10-year agreement does nothing to change a U.S. law that limits U.S. military personnel and contractors in Colombia to 1,400. While Álvaro Uribe’s government said the agreement limits American activity to Colombian territory, it has made neighbours nervous about American intentions, with Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador expressing concern. Chávez has gone further, condemning the deal as a step toward launching a military offensive against Venezuela, and claiming that the bases would be used for espionage purposes against his regime.

It has been a rapid turnaround by Chávez regarding the new U.S. administration. In April, at the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad, Obama and Chávez met for the first time and exchanged handshakes and pats on the back. Chávez gave him a book about American interference in Latin America, while Obama pledged a new era of respect. But those positive atmospherics have dissolved. Chávez is now calling on Obama to give up his Nobel Peace Prize. “The United States government is a champion of cynicism, and Obama should give up his prize in the name of dignity, decorum and respect,” said Chávez. Of Obama’s promise of “change,” he declared, “What changes? The coup in Honduras, the bases in Colombia, the U.S. Navy presence in the Caribbean? This is a threat to peace in Latin America.”

It’s hard to tell how seriously to take Chávez’s latest bluster. After all, this is the man who called George W. Bush “the devil.” Most observers agree that he is trying to rally his country against a foreign enemy in order to distract his people from major problems at home. In addition to high crime and unemployment, Venezuelans are suffering from mounting shortages of electricity and water rationing, despite the country’s oil, gas and coal wealth. Chávez has taken to touting conservation. In October, he urged citizens to limit their showers to three minutes. “I’ve counted and I don’t end up stinking,” he said. “I guarantee it.” Says Michael Shifter, vice-president of Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank in Washington: “He is aware that things are not going well and he is not able to govern the country effectively, and that is reflected in poll numbers of declining support. This is a convenient way to divert attention and try to rally the country behind a national cause.”

However, the sabre-rattling is coming in the midst of a massive arms buildup. Chávez said in September that his government has received a $2.2-billion line of credit from Moscow to buy 92 Russian-made T-72 tanks as well as a long-range Russian anti-aircraft missile system. Chávez said the acquisitions were in response to the U.S. threat, but the U.S. State Department said the buildup outpaced all other Latin American countries, and threatened regional stability by potentially setting off an arms race in the region. Chávez has also been making Washington nervous by developing a friendly relationship with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Earlier this month, the Chávez government announced it is co-operating with Russia to develop a nuclear energy program, and that it is receiving help from Tehran to locate uranium reserves within its borders.

Meanwhile, the situation on the Colombian border, a shadowy zone where drug smugglers and anti-Bogotá Marxist FARC rebels are active, has already been violent. Two Venezuelan national guard soldiers were shot near the border in early November (authorities blamed right-wing Colombian militias). And 11 people, mostly Colombians, had been killed in October; they were believed to be members of paramilitary groups, possibly killed by leftist rebels. Venezuela’s vice-president, Ramon Carrizalez, said the killings were part of a “destabilization plan linked to the base agreement with the U.S.”

Some in Washington warn that Chávez’s posturing should not be dismissed precisely because of the volatile situation at the border. “This is something that should be taken very seriously,” says Roger Noriega, the former assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs and a former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. “With elements of two countries on a border, the sort of irregular forces that operate across that border—be that the FARC or paramilitaries—could draw these countries into a confrontation that neither one needs.”

The U.S-Colombian agreement, negotiated under the Bush administration and completed under Obama, allows the use of the bases for counter-narcotics and counter-insurgency activities in Colombia. Shifter says that the deal was instigated by Bogotá. “The Colombians are feeling nervous and they really pushed for it. The U.S. went along,” he says. The agreement does not oblige Washington to provide any military support to Colombia should Venezuela move against it, says Shifter—though Colombians like to think it will, especially given evidence that Chávez is giving sanctuary to the FARC, and allowing them to regroup on Venezuelan territory. (Computer files and emails captured in a raid on FARC rebels in Ecuador last year provided evidence of military and intelligence officials in the Chávez government helping the insurgents.)

“The agreement was sold that way, and I think a lot of Colombians believed that there would be a greater chance that the U.S. would respond,” says Shifter. “That it would be like NATO. The U.S. might or might not, but there is nothing in the agreement that obliges them to.” Nonetheless, he predicts that with or without the agreement, “I think if it was clearly an aggressive act by Chávez, the U.S. would come to Colombia’s aid. It wouldn’t stand by. The U.S. would be forceful in trying to stop the hostilities.”

Noriega, the former Bush administration official, doubts whether Obama would have the “stomach” for a military entanglement in Latin America. But the prospect of one is enough to make countries already apprehensive about the U.S.-Colombian deal even more nervous. Indeed, a major problem with the agreement seems to be the way it was rolled out—with insufficient explanation and assurances to neighbouring nations such as Brazil to counter concerns and opposition. “There wasn’t any sinister motive here, but it was badly managed by both the U.S. and Colombia,” says Shifter.

The Obama administration has so far reacted to Chávez’s bluster by calling for international mediation to help Venezuela and Colombia resolve their border troubles. “We are very much aware of recent tensions along the Venezuela and Colombia border,” said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. “I certainly don’t think this is about the United States, but we certainly would encourage dialogue between Venezuela and Colombia and a peaceful resolution of the situation along their border.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to make a trip to the region soon, with a particular interest in shoring up relations with Brazil.

So far, Chávez has rejected the idea of dialogue. This week he called his Colombian counterpart Uribe a “mobster” and said there was no possibility of negotiations with the “treasonous” government in Bogotá. He added, “He will be considered by history to be a disgraceful leader who turned his homeland over to the Yankees.”

Noriega says there should be more international pressure on Chávez, and more support from U.S. allies for America’s role in Colombia’s war on narco-trafficking. “I think, frankly, the U.S. should step forward and—with its neighbours, not the least of which would be Canada—say everybody needs to recognize the U.S. has a tangible relationship with Colombia and interests there,” he says. Noriega adds that the Obama administration should do more to “call attention to the threat that Chávez represents, and put some of our neighbours on the spot to take a position on these things before it’s too late and punches start flying.”