ALERT 8/4/09|Russian troops on high readiness in South Ossetia/Reports of exchanges of fire

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hMwNwByhP9L89m6jkmQOXgM6etqQD99S4NH00

Russian troops on high readiness in South Ossetia

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV (AP) – 1 hour ago

MOSCOW — Russian troops in the breakaway province of South Ossetia have been put on increased combat readiness amid rising tensions on the de facto border with Georgia, officials said Tuesday.

Andrei Nesterenko, the spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry, said the move was a response to Georgian "provocations" and meant to prevent more violence.

"The most important thing now is to prevent escalation and not to allow skirmishes to grow into bigger clashes," Nesterenko said.

The situation near South Ossetia has become increasingly tense as the first anniversary of the Russian-Georgian war approaches Friday, with Georgia and Russia blaming each other for provocations and intentions to resume fighting.

The August 2008 conflict erupted after escalating exchanges of fire between Georgia and Moscow-backed South Ossetian forces.

South Ossetia's separatists and Georgian authorities have accused each other of firing guns and mortar rounds on several occasions over the past few days.

In the latest incident, Monday night, South Ossetia's separatist authorities said three mortar rounds were fired into South Ossetia from Georgian-controlled territory. Georgian authorities denied the claim and accused separatists of firing rocket-propelled grenades at a Georgian checkpoint near South Ossetia. No one was hurt.

The European Union said it was concerned about mutual accusations of shelling and other incidents, but added that EU monitors in Georgia had seen no evidence confirming them so far.

"The EU urges all sides to refrain from any statement or action that may lead to increased tensions at this particularly sensitive time," the international organization said in a statement late Monday.

EU monitors are the only international ones remaining in Georgia, but they are blocked from traveling inside South Ossetia and Abkhazia. A EU-brokered truce ended the five-day August war between Georgia and Russia. Russia sent in thousands of troops and tanks that routed the Georgian military and drove deep into Georgia.

Georgian authorities claimed they had to launch the artillery barrage on Tskhinvali, the provincial capital, because Russian troops had moved into South Ossetia hours earlier. Russian officials denied this, and claimed the country acted to protect its peacekeepers and civilians there.

After the war, Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region in Georgia, as independent nations and permanently deployed thousands of troops there.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said in an interview with France's RTL radio broadcast Tuesday that there is a risk of a new conflict because Russia was putting constant pressure on Georgia. He said Georgia would not engage in conflict with Russia but would defend itself if necessary.

Meanwhile, a senior Russian diplomat voiced concern about what he said were U.S. plans to provide military assistance to Georgia.

"Washington is playing the key role in rearming the Georgian military machine," Grigory Karasin, a deputy foreign minister, said in comments reported Tuesday by the Interfax agency. "It would be in the interests of Georgian democracy ... to refuse to arm this country at all."

The U.S. is discussing a Georgian request for $16 million in military aid this year, with most of the money intended for training and technical assistance. But Washington reacted coolly after Saakashvili told The Washington Post that Georgia was interested in acquiring heavy weapons for defensive purposes.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=102524&sectionid=351020606

South Ossetia dissolves parliament
Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:12:39 GMT

South Ossetia's regional leader Eduard Kokoity has reportedly dissolved the government after signing a decree relieving the prime minister of his duties.

The Communications Ministry in the independence-seeking territory linked Premier Aslanbek Bulatsev's dismissal on Tuesday to poor health, Russia' news agencies reported.

“Members of the government of the South Ossetia Republic shall fulfill their duties until the formation of a new government of South Ossetia,” read the decree.

RIA Novosti said Bulatsev, who took office in October 2008, suffered from a lingering sickness and had repeatedly sought to resign.

The decree comes ahead of the first anniversary of the August 7 war between Russia and Georgia over the region.

The war devastated South Ossetia, which claimed independence immediately after the war. Russia has recognized the territory as a sovereign state and is providing military backup along its de facto border with Georgia.

Fresh disputes along the border have raised international concerns over the possibility of a fresh war, as Russia on Tuesday strengthened the combative readiness of all troops in South Ossetia and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili urged the EU and US to avert what he called the apparent risks of a new war.

ZHD/MD
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8183807.stm

_46154651_georgia_post_war_map.gif


Page last updated at 13:58 GMT, Tuesday, 4 August 2009 14:58 UK

Tension rises on Ossetia boundary


Russian forces have been put on a higher state of readiness ahead of this week's first anniversary of the war with Georgia, Russia says.

The foreign ministry accused Georgia of a series of "provocations".

Russia claims villages in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia have been hit by mortar fire.

Georgia, meanwhile, says Russia has moved border posts further onto its territory. EU monitors on the ground say neither claim can be confirmed.

The EU has urged both sides to show restraint as the anniversary of the war, on 7 August, approaches.

The EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM) is the only organisation now monitoring the boundary line.

It has called for unrestricted access on both sides of the boundary. Russian and Ossetian forces have not allowed EU personnel into South Ossetia so far, to check the allegations of Georgian attacks.

"The situation is very worrying and the Georgian provocations ahead of the anniversary of last year's war are not halting," Russian foreign ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said in a statement.

"In connection with this, the battle-readiness of Russian troops and border guards stationed in South Ossetia has been heightened," he said.

"At the moment, the main thing is not to allow an escalation and development of the shootings into a more serious clash. We are doing and will do everything to avoid this."

However, Russia has threatened "to respond" if alleged mortar attacks continue.

Last year's conflict erupted on 7 August as Georgia tried to retake control of South Ossetia. Russia quickly repelled the assault and pushed its forces deeper inside Georgia, before pulling back.

Since the war Russia has built up its military presence in both South Ossetia and Georgia's other breakaway region of Abkhazia, and has recognised both as independent.

Analysts say both sides are using the approaching anniversary to try and score political points against each other.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
From yesterday....

Posted for fair use....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8181005.stm

Georgia in Russia land-grab claim

Georgia has accused Russia of trying to seize more of its territory as the anniversary of last year's brief war between the two countries approaches.

Tbilisi said Russian troops had been moving border posts along the boundary between Georgia and its Russian-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Georgia's foreign ministry called Sunday's moves "extremely alarming".

Russia has accused Georgia of firing mortars into South Ossetia. EU monitors said they could confirm neither claim.

Russian troops had entered the village of Kveshi near South Ossetia and put up new border posts, the Georgian foreign ministry said in a statement on Monday, condemning the alleged move as a deliberate provocation.

The statement said the incident represented "an attempt by the Russian occupants to penetrate into the depth of Georgian territory".

On Saturday, Moscow accused Georgia of targeting South Ossetia with mortar fire and said it would respond if this continued.

The EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM), the only organisation now monitoring the border, said there was currently no evidence for either accusation.

The EUMM had intensified patrols around the border area and called on both sides to refrain from making accusations to escalate tensions at such a sensitive time, a spokesman told the BBC.

Georgia protests

Last year's conflict erupted on 7 August as Georgia tried to retake control of South Ossetia. Russia quickly repelled the assault, and built up its military presence in both South Ossetia and Georgia's other breakaway region of Abkhazia.

Analysts say both sides are using the approaching anniversary to try and score political points against each other.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has faced mass protests calling for his resignation since April.

The opposition accuse the Georgian president of bungling the 2008 war, and failing to strengthen the rule of law and improving democratic freedoms.

Critics say Mr Saakashvili has not addressed how he plans to regain control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are both now recognised and supported as independent states by Russia.

US Vice-President Joe Biden made clear on a visit to Georgia last month that the US would not support any attempt to solve the impasse militarily.

Under a new official agreement with South Ossetia, Russia is now in charge of the territory's border protection.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Yesterday....

Posted for fair use....
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL3614842

FEATURE-Russia casts long shadow over aspiring Abkhaz state
Mon Aug 3, 2009 7:16am EDT
By Matt Robinson and Olga Petrova

NOVY AFON, Georgia, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The four-wheel drive sweeps past the group of Russian tourists climbing to the ruins of the Anakopia fortress overlooking what Abkhazia says was once the capital of its ancient kingdom.

Alkhas Argun steps out to inspect his work, restoring the pale stone walls of the fortress, a symbol of the statehood Abkhazia wants to forge 16 years after throwing-off rule by Georgia at the end of the Soviet Union.

"On paper, a state can be created de jure (by law), but de facto it does not exist," said Argun.

"Then there are states that exist de facto for centuries, but the world wants nothing to do with them. What is important is that the state is formed from within, that it is self-sufficient, to some degree."

But both economic and military self-sufficiency remain a long way off for Abkhazia, whose dependence on Russia is huge and growing, causing some of its 200,000 people to glance uneasily north to their giant former Soviet master.

Through the cypress trees and beyond the silver domes of the Novy Afon Orthodox monastery, a Russian warship sits motionless off the Black Sea coast, part of a military force that swept into the region last August as war raged between Russia and Georgia in Georgia's other breakaway region, South Ossetia.

Pro-Western Georgia's assault on South Ossetia and Russia's crushing counter-strike gave Abkhazia the chance to seize the last corner of its territory, pushing Georgian security forces out from the upper gorge of the Kodori river.

But Abkhazia has been shunned by the rest of the world. A year later, only Nicaragua has followed Russia in recognising both South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

"They (Russians) are of course our protectors," said Abkhaz Deputy Defence Minister Garry Kupalba, as the next generation of officers practiced drills among palm trees at a training centre in the capital, Sukhumi.

"Our citizens know foremost that no one else but the Russians stand with us. A year ago we didn't have such confidence."

Russia plans to build naval and army bases, and has taken control of Abkhazia's de facto borders, a move it says is essential to defend against Georgian military ambitions.

With few sources of income, besides a trickle of Russian tourists to its Black Sea coast, Abkhazia imports 97 percent of its food products and relies on Russia for 90 percent of its foreign investment.

Its pensions are paid by Russia, and it uses the rouble as its currency.

"For every rouble brought in by tourists, we give 90 kopecks back to our neighbour," said Economy Minister Kristina Ozgan.



CONTROLLING HAND

She says Russian aid accounts for less than 50 percent of Abkhazia's tiny budget, but Beslan Boutba, leader of the opposition Party of Economic Development, calculates it is closer to 65 percent.

"To live forever on charity is impossible. That means we are dependent," said Boutba. "We need a concept of development, of how we can get out of that situation."

Unlike smaller, landlocked South Ossetia, Abkhazia rules out joining Russia in the future and is considered by Western analysts as a more viable state than its fellow rebel region.

Its sub-tropical Black Sea coastline gives it the opportunity to re-establish itself as a hotspot for Russian tourists, a potentially valuable source of income.

Russian-backed shiny hotels and restaurants have sprung up along Sukhumi's winding promenade. Gagra, 60 km (37 miles) north of the capital, is banking on its close proximity to Sochi, where Russia will hold the 2014 Winter Olympics, for prosperity.

That Abkhazia must turn today to its northern neighbour is inevitable, said Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba. And the West, in backing Georgian claims and shunning the Abkhaz authorities as illegitimate, shares responsibility, he said.

"The Western community is doing everything to leave us with only one route -- to Russia," he said.

Few scoff at the military backing provided by Russia.

Around 8,000 people died and some 200,000 Georgians fled in the 1992-93 war, when newly-independent Georgia sent soldiers and paramilitaries to stamp out Abkhaz calls for secession, only to be pushed back to today's de facto border by Abkhaz militias, backed by Russian forces.

Across Abkhazia, the scars of conflict are clearly visible.

Sixty thousand have since returned to the eastern Gali region on the Georgian border, where torched homes still bear witness to a wave of violence.

In Sukhumi, ruined homes are fenced off within site of the promenade, where Russian girls in short skirts wait until the muggy afternoon heat cools to walk along the pebble beach.

And the bumpy road to the boundary with Georgia proper -- a road to nowhere for most Abkhaz -- is now disintegrating under encroaching foliage, as if returning to nature.

The controlling hand of greater powers, Russia among them, has long been a dominant theme in Abkhaz history. But opponents of President Sergei Bagapsh are increasingly wary of the control Russia is garnering.

They point with concern to the handover of the railway to Russian administration, which the government says is essential for international recognition of its transport links.

Lawrence Sheets of the International Crisis Group think tank said while concern over Russia's footprint is widespread, it largely remains silent.

"Among the political hierarchy, although said in couched terms, there's no question there's a great deal of concern about Abkhazia becoming not just a protectorate of Russia ... but basically ceding control of its day-to-day affairs," he said. (Editing by Sophie Hares)

© Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://www.rferl.org/content/Russian_Troops_Try_To_Shift_South_Ossetia_Border_Markers/1791641.html

August 03, 2009
Russian Troops Try To Shift South Ossetia Border Markers
by Goga Aptsiauri

KVESHI, Georgia -- Russian soldiers based in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia have attempted to relocate a section of the de facto border between the region and the rest of Georgia.

Residents of the village of Kveshi, on the Georgian side of the border, told RFE/RL that Russian soldiers entered the area on August 2 and moved the markers delimiting the border some 500 meters further into Georgian territory.

Tariel Elizbarashvili, a Kveshi resident from a mixed Georgian-Ossetian family, said the Russian soldiers were using Soviet-era maps. He said he contacted a representative of the European Union's monitoring mission.

"They [the Russian soldiers] said, 'According to our maps, the posts should be here.' Then the EU mission people came and they had computer maps. And they said [the Russians] shouldn't be on this side of that ditch," Elizbarashvili said.

"And [the EU monitors] promised us that by tomorrow the posts would be removed. And this morning, my wife saw how they came and they were swearing at one another while they removed the posts."

The independent website civil.ge quoted Steve Bird, a spokesman for the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia, as saying the Russian forces on the ground told the EU monitors they had no intention of moving their checkpoint to the location marked by the posts.

Official South Ossetian media have quoted Russian military officials as denying the Kveshi incident took place at all.

The boundary of South Ossetia was delimited in the 1920s when the region was granted autonomous status within the Soviet Republic of Georgia. However in an interview with Russia's RIA Novosti last week, South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity said he hoped to annex some parts of Georgia that he said are "native Ossetian land that for unclear reasons in the Soviet period" were not included in the territory of the region.

One-Year Tensions

The situation along the border -- and between Russia and Georgia generally -- is becoming increasingly tense as the first anniversary of the war in the region last August approaches.

On August 1, the EU Monitoring Mission said it is "seriously concerned" about the escalation of rhetoric and accusations of incidents along the border.

South Ossetian officials have complained about alleged mortar fire from Georgian-controlled territory in the direction of the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali. The EU said it has seen "no evidence" of such incidents from its position on the Georgian side of the border and again appealed to South Ossetia to allow independent monitors into the region.

In an interview with Reuters on August 1, Kokoity called for more Russian troops, including "more serious weaponry," in the region. The same day, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement saying it would use military force to protect South Ossetia.

Neighbors No More

In Kveshi, people are worried.

"We live here. This is my son's house and this is ours. We are in a very tense situation. Where can we go?" asks Margalita Meladze, a grandmother whose house was briefly incorporated into South Ossetia.

"Everybody's frightened, especially the children. I don't care about myself -- you, young people, should have a normal, safe life. This is what I want. And they only want trouble. So many young people have died and they want even more to die."

The impassable border that now passes between Kveshi and the nearby South Ossetian village of Artsevi wasn't always so intimidating, Meladze says.

"We have always lived as good neighbors. We visited each other," she says. "They didn't do us any harm and we didn't harm them."

Meanwhile the war of heated words continues. Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Nalbandov told journalists in Tbilisi on August 3 that "the temperature of destabilization" is rising.

"Everybody now understands that as the major tool -- in fact, the only tool -- of its foreign policy, Russia has chosen blackmailing, threatening, and aggression.," Nalbandov said.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty © 2009 RFE/RL, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://www.reuters.com/article/world...5733KM20090804

Europe war risk no longer unthinkable post Georgia

Tue Aug 4, 2009 1:03pm EDT

By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent -Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - Markets might have moved on after their initial shocked reaction to last year's Georgia war, but the legacy of the brief conflict remains that war in Europe is much less unthinkable than it once was.

Russia's stockmarket lost roughly a quarter of its value in August 2008, while the cost of insuring sovereign debt in the credit default swaps market rose as far afield as Poland as investors reappraised regional risk.

The war had such market impact because it was so unexpected. Investors -- and many analysts -- had assumed that conflict risk in emerging Europe was close to zero.

The overnight outbreak of fighting in the disputed South Ossetia region shattered that, forcing an immediate reappraisal of the whole region.

It put in immediate focus on countries such as Ukraine -- with its Russian-speaking Crimea region and base for Moscow's Black Sea Fleet -- as well as other nearby "frozen conflicts" left over from the demise of the Soviet Union.

Such areas include the breakaway region of Transdniestria, a Russian speaking region demanding independence from Moldova, and Armenian-speaking Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist area within Azerbaijan.

"The war came as a surprise to most people and focused attention on a lot of other potential conflicts," said Control Risks analyst Anna Walker. "It drew attention to countries with significant Russian populations, even Central Asian states such as Kazakhstan. It wasn't that people expected war, but it did make them more uneasy."

When a row erupted last year between Moscow and Ukraine over the Black Sea Fleet days into the war, markets reacted abruptly and Ukrainian CDS rose sharply as politics built on existing economic worries.

But a year later and in the aftermath of a global financial crisis that has hit countries in the region harder than most, markets have again moved on and are now focused on shattered economies rather than geopolitical tensions.

LOOKING ELSEWHERE FOR TROUBLE

When they worry about political risk, it is more likely to be over social unrest, labor disputes or policy risks linked to the wider crisis than conventional conflict.

When arguments broke out again around the Black Sea Fleet last month -- with diplomats expelled and Ukrainian police halting Russian military vehicles -- there were no discernible market movements at all.

"There was a strong initial reaction to the war," said Michael Ganske, head of emerging markets research at Commerzbank in London. "But markets are now looking at other things."

In part, that is because of the magnitude of the economic issues facing many of the countries in the region, which suffered more than most from the financial crisis.

Last month, investors in Ukraine had to contend with the announced restructuring of debts of state oil firm Naftogaz end questions over whether the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would continue funding the now-shattered economy.

Regional equity markets and most currencies remain significantly weaker than pre-Georgia levels, while CDS debt insurance premiums remain significantly higher.

Ukrainian credit default swaps are now quoted at around 1500 basis points, meaning it would cost $1.5 million a year to protect $10 million of five-year debt against restructuring or default -- compared to 400 basis points last year before the war, implying heightened default risk.

Analysts say the sharp market reaction to the conflict was in part fueled by factors well outside the war, from the beginnings of a global emerging markets sell-off sparked by a resurgent dollar to a string of perceived attacks on foreign investors in Russia.

SUMMER WAR RISK REMAINS

Some suggest there was also a knee-jerk overreaction.

"In the immediate aftermath, there were a lot of analysts saying things would escalate and Russia would take similar action in other regions such as Crimea but I think that was too quick an analysis," said Sabine Freizer, head of the Europe program at International Crisis Group. "Russia wants to keep some of these areas unstable but that is not the same thing as intervening militarily."

A new U.S. administration trying to "press the reset button" in relations with Moscow is seen reducing further conflict risk, and the swiftness of the Russian victory is seen putting other former Soviet states off squaring off against their giant neighbor.

That means investors are, for example, likely to be less nervous that any new pro-western government in Moldova might spark a confrontation over Transdniestria.

Most analysts see a Russia weakened by low oil prices, slumping growth and rising unemployment as also reducing the risk -- although some suggest it could also prompt Kremlin leadership to pick foreign fights to provide a distraction.

Certainly, few would now dare rule out any further war, most likely erupting over a summer period when better weather makes fighting ground wars more appealing.

"It is a risk that is always worth watching," said Joanna Gorska, deputy head of Eurasia desk at risk consultancy Exclusive Analysis. "But if we get through to September or October without anything, we are probably safe for another year."

© Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.
 

Worrier King

Inactive
Unlike the gutless U.S. who is allowing itself to be liquidated and dismantled and used as the worlds Policeman, (except directly against the Russians and Chinese but being played in a brilliant war of attrition against proxies) at least the Russians have the balls to try to hang onto and oppose Globalist encroachment and western interference into their sphere of influence, thus trying to advance the well being of the sovereign Russian Nationalist state.

I'd gladly trade a Kenyan Obama for a figure like an American Nationalist Putin. But of course "Nationalist" is a bad word now, conjuring up indoctrinated and conditioned images of extremist groups like Nazi's and White Supremicists.
 
Last edited:

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Unlike the U.S. who is allowing itself to be liquidated and dismantled, at least the Russians have the balls to try to hang onto and oppose Globalist encroachment and western interference into their sphere of influence, thus trying to advance the well being of the sovereign Russian Nationalist state.

I'd gladly trade a Kenyan Obama for a figure like an American Nationalist Putin. But of course "Nationalist" is a bad word now, conjuring up indoctrinated and conditioned images of extremist groups like Nazi's and White Supremicists.

Worrier King,

Considering Odom's scenario, the next "man on horseback" the U.S. sees may very well be from that mold.

Housecarl
 

Brutus

Inactive
Worrier King said:
.....at least the Russians have the balls to try to hang onto and oppose Globalist encroachment and western interference into their sphere of influence, thus trying to advance the well being of the sovereign Russian Nationalist state.

Yep.

I figured we'd have at least one *IDIOT* here on Timebomb who'd actually cheer moves by Russia that seek to reestablish the territory of the old Soviet Union.

:rolleyes:
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
The Communications Ministry in the independence-seeking territory linked Premier Aslanbek Bulatsev's dismissal on Tuesday to poor health, Russia' news agencies reported.

Russians always use "poor health" when someone is sacked.

It is very tiresome and very transparent.

When Russia does that, they are basically saying Foxtrot Oscar and try and stop us.

The "independant" (:lkick:) government of South Ossetia is being populated with Putin hardliners in prelude of another attack.

It's a clear message to eveybody to back away from any support for Georgia. Otherwise the Russians will roll their armor again.

I only a little surprised the Russians are being so obvious about it.
 

Brutus

Inactive
Russians always use "poor health" when someone is sacked.

It is very tiresome and very transparent.

When Russia does that, they are basically saying Foxtrot Oscar and try and stop us.

The "independant" (:lkick:) government of South Ossetia is being populated with Putin hardliners in prelude of another attack.

It's a clear message to eveybody to back away from any support for Georgia. Otherwise the Russians will roll their armor again.

I only a little surprised the Russians are being so obvious about it.
Yeah, that guy's "poor health" was a result of the way he got to feeling when they put a gun to his head.

I think that might give me a case of "poor health" too.

Bastards.......

:sht:
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Russians always use "poor health" when someone is sacked.

It is very tiresome and very transparent.

When Russia does that, they are basically saying Foxtrot Oscar and try and stop us.

The "independant" (:lkick:) government of South Ossetia is being populated with Putin hardliners in prelude of another attack.

It's a clear message to eveybody to back away from any support for Georgia. Otherwise the Russians will roll their armor again.

I only a little surprised the Russians are being so obvious about it.

I'm not. It goes in line with the gauntlet being thrown down by Biden's WSJ interview of 25 July. Putin et al smell weakness and indications of incompetence. We'll be lucky if this is only a probing for weakness and response and not a full on grab of Georgia.
 

knepper

Veteran Member
Czar Vlad is on the move. He smells weakness in the White House, and correctly intuits that the Mansourian Candidate will do nothing about him annexing neighboring sovereign states.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Man there's a lot that can be read into this article....:shk:

Posted for fair use....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hsRX7IoP8nlJaT-MohloOzHk2j_wD99S84K80

Obama, Medvedev discuss Georgia, arms control


(AP) – 1 hour ago

MOSCOW — Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday spoke with President Barack Obama about Georgia, just days before the anniversary of last year's Russia-Georgia war, a Kremlin statement said.

The two leaders shared a telephone conversation at Moscow's initiative, the statement said, adding they also discussed arms control, the Middle East and Iran.

"An exchange on opinions on the lessons of last year's Georgian crisis took place," the statement said, without elaborating.

Tension is mounting with the anniversary approaching. Georgia and Russia blame each other for recent provocations over the separatist-held, Moscow-friendly South Ossetia region of Georgia.

Russian troops have been put on increased combat readiness on South Ossetia's de facto border with Georgia, officials said Tuesday.

On the night of Aug. 7-8, 2008, a brief war broke out over the region. Thousands of Russian troops poured into South Ossetia to beef up security after the Russian army routed the Georgian military in the five-day conflict.

Only Russia and Nicaragua recognize the independence of South Ossetia, and President Barack Obama said during a recent Moscow summit that Georgia's territorial integrity must be respected.

In their discussion, Obama and Medvedev also agreed on the need to intensify efforts to strike a new nuclear arms control deal before the end of the year.

U.S. and Russian officials have been trying to reach agreement on a successor agreement to the 1991 arms control treaty known as START.

Among the biggest sticking points is the issue of U.S. plans for a missile defense system in Central Europe. Russia vociferously opposes those plans.

(This version CORRECTS RECASTS to lede with Georgia; corrects Central Europe sted eastern)

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav080409c.shtml

EURASIA INSIGHT

GEORGIA: TENSION BETWEEN TBILISI AND MOSCOW MOUNTS AS WAR ANNIVERSARY NEARS
Giorgi Lomsadze 8/04/09


Four days before the anniversary of Georgia’s 2008 war with Russia, a flurry of phantom attacks along the border between Georgian-controlled territory and separatist South Ossetia is stoking concerns in Tbilisi about the possibility of renewed conflict.

As in early August and late July 2008, Georgia and Russia now swap nearly daily reports about alleged incidents on the South Ossetia border and blame each other for the reported violence.

In the latest such exchange, on August 4, Georgia’s Interior Ministry claimed that two hand grenades were thrown late on August 3 at a police post in the Georgian village of Plavismani. No one was injured, according to the ministry.

South Ossetia, meanwhile, asserts that it was the South Ossetian village of Ortev that came under a volley of mortar fire on August 3 from the direction of Plavismani.

Against such a backdrop and charges and counter-charges, some analysts believe the chances for another war are running high. Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defense analyst and columnist for Novaya Gazeta who predicted the 2008 war with Russia, told Georgia’s Interpressnews agency on August 3 that recent incidents indicate that there is an "80 percent" chance of fresh conflict.

"[The incidents] indicate that it may come to a war in the matter of days," Felgenhauer was quoted by Interpressnews as saying. Felgenhauer believes that Russia is trying to finish off last year’s alleged task -- to redraw the map of the South Caucasus, subdue the defiantly pro-Western Georgia and secure an overland route to its regional ally, Armenia.

One Tbilisi analyst agrees. "Russia is testing international reactions before it proceeds with its plans in Georgia," said Andro Barnov, head of the Institute for Strategy and Development.

What Georgia calls a recent Russian attempt at a land grab has helped to fuel that sense of unease in Tbilisi.

On August 1, the Georgian Interior Ministry charged that Russian servicemen showed up in the Georgian village of Kveshi, not far from South Ossetia, and marked off a border line by driving metal poles into the ground; effectively partitioning the ethnically Georgian village into two halves.

Government officials could not be reached to clarify who had sounded the alarm and whether or not there had been any villager attempt at resistance. The pro-government Rustavi-2 television station later reported that the poles had been taken to another nearby village.

On August 3, Georgia’s Foreign Ministry claimed that the markings had been removed after protests from Tbilisi. The European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM), the only international monitors left in the area received assurances from Russia that Moscow had no intention of shifting the border. The EUMM said that it has seen no evidence suggesting any such attempt by Russia.

One resident of Kveshi, however, told EurasiaNet that she witnessed a group of Russian soldiers planting the poles in her home village. "We were coming back from a funeral, over on the Ossetian side and we encountered Russian soldiers in the middle of our village," said the woman, who requested anonymity to preserve her ability to visit family in South Ossetia.

"They held us up, they were not rude or anything, and when we explained that we were from this village they let us pass through."

The EUMM said there is "quite a bit of movement" across the porous border between breakaway South Ossetia and Georgia proper. The resident agreed, saying that Georgian villagers take their cattle to pastures controlled by Russian border guards. She referred to the Russian troops as "Vanyas," a somewhat derisive term. "Vanya" is a diminutive name for "Ivan."

"If the Vanyas are not running around in their tanks or what have you, then we always send livestock over to the Ossetian side to graze," the resident said.

The reported events in Kveshi have prompted the international community to call for calm. The Russian Defense Ministry has threatened military action should what it terms Georgian "provocations" - it claims that Georgian artillery shelled the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali -- continue. The EUMM, denied access to South Ossetia, has not substantiated the reports.

On August 3, the European Union requested all sides to "refrain from any statement or action that may lead to tensions at this particularly sensitive time."

France, which brokered the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Georgia, followed suit. The French Foreign Ministry on August 3 warned that the flare-up in attacks could trigger a new "cycle of violence." The ministry urged both Russia and Georgia to abide by the accords of last August and September.

Posted August 4, 2009 © Eurasianet
http://www.eurasianet.org
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/380200.htm

Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Updated at 04 August 2009 20:23 Moscow Time.
The Moscow Times » Issue 4203 » Opinion

Putin’s Afghan War
05 August 2009
By Yulia Latynina

Events in South Ossetia are unfolding according to last year’s scenario. No sooner had U.S. Vice President Joe Biden announced that the United States would not provide arms to Georgia than South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity accused the United States of complicity in genocide against the Ossetian people and announced that Tskhinvali had come under fire from the Georgian village of Nikozi. Considering the fact that South Ossetian forces had already wiped Nikozi off the map, his statement sounded a bit strange.

The next day, a Georgian citizen died after stepping on a mine on the Georgian side of the border with the Akhalgorsk district. (Remember that before the Russia-Georgia war last August, the Akhalgorsk region belonged to Georgia, and after the war both Georgians and Ossetians began leaving the area.) President Kokoity announced that Georgia had intentionally blown up its own citizen as part of its policy of preventing Akhalgorsk refugees from returning home.

As part of the ongoing peace talks, Kokoity demanded that Georgia return the Trusovsky Gorge on the grounds that “many of our people” are there. Using that logic, Russia could demand the return of countless regions — including parts of the United States and Australia — since “many Russians were born there.”

This is all exactly like the Gleivits radio station incident, when in 1939 Germans dressed as Polish soldiers attacked their own radio station and then announced that the Poles were responsible.

Russia has fallen hostage to Kokoity’s whims. Under his rule, South Ossetia is rapidly becoming a ghost town. The republic’s nominal population of 70,000 is really only 15,000 today, according to the South Ossetian opposition. Kokoity plans to implement all of his peacekeeping plans with the help of the Russian military. And even if the Kremlin supports Kokoity, it is by no means proof that he has the situation under control at home. When Prime Minister Vladimir Putin demanded an account of what happened to the funds the Kremlin sent to South Ossetia to rebuild the republic, he could not give a coherent answer.

The problem is that it would be impossible to repeat last year’s scenario now. Last year, nobody in the world paid any attention to the fact that before the war had started, South Ossetian forces began shelling Georgian territory while declaring their readiness to launch a “counterstrike” against Georgian cities. Today, it is highly unlikely that Russia and South Ossetia will be able to convince the world that Georgians blew up a fellow citizen who was trying to return to the “prospering” region of Akhalgorsk, and all at the same time as that cursed West is rejecting Kokoity’s peaceful request that Georgia return the Trusovsky Gorge.

What’s more, if there will, in fact, be Round 2 of the Russia-Georgia war, nobody will believe that Kokoity had started the conflict. Everyone would conclude that it had been Putin’s decision.

Against the backdrop of an economic crisis, a gas war with Ukraine and a milk war with Belarus, a new war with Georgia would mean the same thing for Putin’s regime that the war in Afghanistan meant for the Soviet Union — the beginning of the end.

Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.
 
Not according to Worrier King.

According to him the Russians are simply "trying to advance the well being of the sovereign Russian Nationalist state."

:rolleyes:

I don't think thats fair,,,

I read his comments as encompassing the hole Russian geopolitical situation under Putin,
you are suddenly taking it for an approval of moving 'border markers'.
 

Heliobas Disciple

TB Fanatic
Man there's a lot that can be read into this article....:shk:

Posted for fair use....
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hsRX7IoP8nlJaT-MohloOzHk2j_wD99S84K80

Obama, Medvedev discuss Georgia, arms control

Sure can. I wonder if the admin got word of the Russians moves in S. Osettia (as well as the joint military excercises with Iran) before Biden's WSJ article, which is why the admin's tone changed or if this foray into S. Osettia is a response to the WSJ article. Either way, this phone call must have been very interesting. Obama's popularity is falling and Russia must be like a buzzard circling its prey, smelling blood.

HD
 

Worrier King

Inactive
Not according to Worrier King.

According to him the Russians are simply "trying to advance the well being of the sovereign Russian Nationalist state."

:rolleyes:

So in the liquidation of the U.S., the concept of a sovereign Nationalist state, and defending it, has become a obsolete idea to you?

Your a rube globalist puke thinking your some kind of patriot.

Let me remind you YOUR CIC is Obama. :lkick:

Try to empty the shit out of your brain that's been poured into it over the generations and put the pieces together.

Nationalist loyalty to a nation, or Globalist loyal to world government?

I have no respect for a nation who refuses to defend its borders or culture or people...and is filled with conditioned dogma spouting idiots.

It's getting dark, go turn the light on your flag. :whistle:
 

SIRR1

Inactive
Hmmmm, I wonder if the Georgians will at least have the balls to blow the tunnel this time ?

And the Soviet Subs off the Eastern US is a signal to our great leader to not mess in Georgia this year like GWB did or get nuked...

Scary Stuff!

SIRR1
 

Infoscout

The Dude Abides
russian subs off the eastern seaboard, and a possible move in Georgia. man pucker factor very high right now!
 

jer48n10

Inactive
Czar Vlad is on the move. He smells weakness in the White House, and correctly intuits that the Mansourian Candidate will do nothing about him annexing neighboring sovereign states.

He probably invite him over for a couple of beers and tell Vlad that he'll just keep the subs and carriers tied pier side to provide free electricity to those oppressed by the typical white Americans.

jer48n10
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
So in the liquidation of the U.S., the concept of a sovereign Nationalist state, and defending it, has become a obsolete idea to you?

Your a rube globalist puke thinking your some kind of patriot.

Let me remind you YOUR CIC is Obama. :lkick:

Try to empty the shit out of your brain that's been poured into it over the generations and put the pieces together.

Nationalist loyalty to a nation, or Globalist loyal to world government?

I have no respect for a nation who refuses to defend its borders or culture or people...and is filled with conditioned dogma spouting idiots.

It's getting dark, go turn the light on your flag. :whistle:

What does this have to do with Russia trying to steal Georgia? That nation WAS within the USSR borders, but the Old Soviet is gone. Do you think the New Soviet is a good idea? Should the New Soviet reconstitute its old borders?

I'm merely trying to understand, because you are getting pissed off like a mean drunk and trying to rip folks' heads off over a line of discussion that you are apparently having only with yourself.
 

Brutus

Inactive
So in the liquidation of the U.S., the concept of a sovereign Nationalist state, and defending it, has become a obsolete idea to you?

Your a rube globalist puke thinking your some kind of patriot.

Let me remind you YOUR CIC is Obama. :lkick:

Try to empty the shit out of your brain that's been poured into it over the generations and put the pieces together.

Nationalist loyalty to a nation, or Globalist loyal to world government?

I have no respect for a nation who refuses to defend its borders or culture or people...and is filled with conditioned dogma spouting idiots.

It's getting dark, go turn the light on your flag. :whistle:

WK, lay off the weed, huh?

Russia trying to intimidate/fragment Georgia is nothing more than what Russia's old tricks ever were.

WK = #1 cheerleader for the reconstituted Soviet Union

:rolleyes:
 

Worrier King

Inactive
I'm merely trying to understand, because you are getting pissed off like a mean drunk and trying to rip folks' heads off over a line of discussion that you are apparently having only with yourself.

Stand back and look at the bigger picture trying to be objective and unbiased, rather than seeing the little "Patriot" picture Americans have been indoctrinated and conditioned to believe in, without even questioning.

Just as I respect people who take care of their own business and pursue their vested interests, so do I respect nations and leaders who do the same.

The U.S. is in the throes of liquidation and has surrendered her borders and national sovereignty. It's people are conditioned, voting rubes consenting to the dismantling of their nation as they play what they think are partisan games. Taking the rest of us down with her, which I and growing numbers of others highly resent.

Death to the dem/repub party.

Putin's standing up for Russia, they've undergone quite a revolution to position themselves for the 2000's while the dem/repubs are selling the U.S. out and the nation. PC, over-tolerance, and the multicultural ethnic differences now in the U.S prevent us from undergoing the needed change to position ourselves to compete in the 2000s.

Currently in the U.S. it's a full out liquidation of the middle class and a corrupt transfer of wealth out of the nation the Supreme Soviet could of only drooled over.

Russia has every right to try to stabilize and secure their sphere of influence on their borders and advance their Nationalism, just as the U.S. has a right to do but refuses to do.
 

Worrier King

Inactive
---

forget it.

I'm adamantly pro-Israel, there's a wide variety of Jews so I'd judge each one on their individual character. Don't think the orthodox Jews should be spitting on people. Used to have a Rabbi as a friend/neighbor many years ago, a wise man, YHWH bless his soul.
 
Top