INTL 6/28 EU/NATO/CIS/CSTO-SCO/BRIC|Russian Caucasus Maneuvers/OSCE Meeting/START/UK+SLBM

Housecarl

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6/22 EU/NATO/CIS/CSTO-SCO/BRIC|Burka v.Pres. Sarkozy/The Ural Summits: BRIC and SCO
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/27/AR2009062702303.html?hpid=sec-world

Russia's Maneuvers in Caucasus Highlight Volatility of Region

By Sarah Marcus
Special to The Washington Post
Sunday, June 28, 2009

TBILISI, Georgia -- Military helicopters circled once again over Georgia's mountainous terrain. Amid the crackle of gunfire, soldiers ran across battlefields carrying comrades on stretchers. But this was no repeat of last summer's brief war with Russia. It was a training exercise -- and this time, NATO sent help.

The month-long exercises, which concluded June 3 and involved more than 1,000 soldiers from 14 countries, took place near Georgia's border with the breakaway territory of South Ossetia and were condemned by the Russian government as a "provocation."

Now the Kremlin is preparing to stage its own military maneuvers in the Caucasus region. Russia's top commander, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, has said the "large-scale exercises" will involve "all the brigades of the North Caucasus Military District, the Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla marine brigades."

Makarov will personally oversee the operation, dubbed Kavkaz-2009, according to Russian state media. The exercises are set to begin Monday and end July 6, just as President Obama is scheduled to arrive in Moscow on his first state visit.

The two sets of war games are a reminder of the volatility of the region more than 10 months after Russian troops routed the Georgian army in a five-day war. The Russian exercises will go forward as two international monitoring missions are withdrawing from the area and as Russian forces continue to occupy territory that a year ago was uncontested Georgian soil.

A team of observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is scheduled to leave Georgia at the end of the month at Russia's insistence, and Moscow used its veto in the U.N. Security Council last week to terminate the U.N. mission in the other breakaway Georgian territory, Abkhazia.

A third group of monitors from the European Union remains in Georgia but has been denied access to the two territories, which Russia recognized as independent countries after last year's war.

Pavel Felgengauer, a Moscow-based military analyst who writes for the opposition Novaya Gazeta newspaper, warned that Russia may be preparing for another war, in part to establish a corridor through Georgia to an important Russian base in Armenia.

He noted that similar Russian exercises in the North Caucasus preceded last year's war. "Such exercises are traditionally used as a cover under which to prepare troops for war," he said. "They could easily lead to deployment of troops."

The Georgian government's response to the Russian exercises has been muted. But Defense Minister Vasil Sikharulidze traveled to Washington this month to urge the Obama administration to strengthen military cooperation with Georgia. Speaking to the Associated Press, he warned that Russian troops were "better prepared for war than they were last year."

In a recent interview, Sikharulidze added that Georgia was working with the United States to upgrade its armed forces. "If you compare Russian and Georgian military organization, there is a huge disbalance," he said. "But the Georgian army is trained, and being trained, to deter and delay Russian aggression."

Sikharulidze said the army began a new training cycle, focused on defense, in January. But he said the United States has not supplied antitank and antiaircraft weapons that Georgia has sought.

Russian officials, meanwhile, insist that Georgia is already better armed than it was before the war. They have accused E.U. monitors of ignoring the buildup and Georgia of preparing to seize the territories by force.

About 8,500 troops will participate in the upcoming exercises, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, though statements by Makarov and others suggest much larger maneuvers. Officials have said the exercises will incorporate lessons from the Georgian war but focus on counterterrorism operations.

NATO officials said the alliance's peacekeeping and crisis-response exercises in Georgia were scheduled long before last year's war and were not targeted at Russia. But the decision to proceed despite Russian objections was seen as an achievement by the Georgian government.

"It was very important to have a message that the principle of sovereignty is an important thing for NATO and [that] no country can just veto a decision from outside," said Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria.

NATO support appears more important than ever to this former Soviet republic, yet Georgia's prospects for joining the alliance have faded amid U.S. efforts to improve relations with Russia and lingering concerns about the judgment of President Mikheil Saakashvili, whom some blame for provoking last year's war.

NATO has pledged to bring Georgia into the alliance, but it rejected Georgia's request for a clear timetable for membership and instead set up an annual process for reviewing the country's progress toward alliance requirements.

The decision, and the departure of the Bush administration, have heightened anxiety in Georgia about whether Washington will continue to back it against its powerful neighbor.

The U.S. assistant secretary of state for the region, Philip H. Gordon, traveled to Tbilisi this month and reaffirmed a partnership agreement signed by the Bush administration. And in April, Obama stood firm on Georgia in a London meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, referring to the war as "the Russian invasion of Georgia" in a news conference.

Saakashvili, a favorite of the Bush administration, said Obama's use of the phrase amounted to an endorsement of Georgia's view of the war.

Russia maintains that it invaded Georgia only after Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia, killing Russian peacekeepers and civilians. Saakashvili says he ordered the assault in response to shelling by South Ossetian rebels and an imminent Russian invasion.

Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, said U.S. policy toward Georgia has shifted, official statements of support notwithstanding.

While the Pentagon is continuing to work with the Georgian army, he said, the emphasis now is on "assistance and training limited to a defense nature only."

Lincoln Mitchell, a scholar at Columbia University who studies Georgia, said the Obama administration may be reluctant to provide arms to Georgia because of Saakashvili's domestic policies. A fractured opposition has portrayed him as an autocrat and staged weeks of protests demanding he resign.

But Bokeria, the deputy foreign minister, defended Georgia's democratic credentials, calling them "an important factor" in U.S. support for the country. "This factor is not hampering the assistance," he said.
 
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Housecarl

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http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-06-28-voa7.cfm

NATO, Russia Resume Military Ties
By VOA News
28 June 2009

NATO and Russia agreed Saturday to resume military ties, ending a 10-month rift caused by Russia's war with Georgia, but they failed to bridge major differences over the conflict.

The agreement, which clears the way for the two sides to restore cooperation on anti-piracy operations, counter-terrorism, and the war in Afghanistan, was reached at a meeting of NATO and Russian foreign ministers in Greece.

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer
NATO's outgoing Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that the NATO-Russia Council, set up to improve ties between the two sides, is operational again.

Also Saturday, in Moscow, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, called on Russian officers to help move U.S.-Russian military relations to a new level.

Mullen and his Russian counterpart will sign a new military cooperation agreement next month, during U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow.

Dialogue between NATO and Moscow was suspended last August after Russia used force to stop Georgia's attempt to retake one of its breakaway regions.

An attempt in May to resume ministerial-level talks failed over NATO-led military exercises in Georgia, which Russia labeled a provocation.

Another source of tension has been a U.S. plan for a missile defense shield in Central Europe.

The NATO-Russia Council session was held on the sidelines of a meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

That two-day meeting focuses on resolving differences over Georgia, as well as Russia's proposal for a new European security pact.

One divisive issue is extending the OSCE monitoring mission in Georgia, which is set to expire Tuesday. Russia has blocked past attempts to keep monitors there.

When the OSCE talks end on Sunday, European Union ministers will remain in Corfu to discuss Iran policy.

Some information for this report was provided by AFP, AP and Reuters.
 

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http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1010/42/379105.htm

Monday, June 29, 2009
Updated at 29 June 2009 0:23 Moscow Time.
The Moscow Times » Issue 4176 » News
print
General Surprises U.S. by Pledging Deal

29 June 2009
Combined Reports

A top general has surprised the U.S. military by announcing that Russia and the United States would sign a military cooperation deal when U.S. President Barack Obama visits Moscow next month.

"We have outlined the main issues of military cooperation for 2009 and beyond," the head of the General Staff, General Nikolai Makarov, said Friday after a 90-minute meeting with his U.S. counterpart, Admiral Michael Mullen.

"Our intention is that those documents should be signed when U.S. President Barack Obama arrives here in Moscow in July," Makarov said.

Mullen, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, made no mention of any military agreement after the talks but said he was looking forward to the outcome of Obama's visit to Russia on July 6 to 8.

"I can't emphasize enough my belief that we need to work on these very hard challenges to improve security not just in Europe but in the world," Mullen said.

At the Pentagon, U.S. Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman said U.S. officials "had no idea" that Russian leaders were going to announce the intention to sign the agreement.

He called the expected agreement a sign of good will but would not discuss details.

"It's good for two countries to have strong, bilateral military-to-military relations," Whitman told reporters Friday. "We think it's valuable."

Makarov said he and Mullen discussed the U.S.-Russian talks on a successor to the 1991 START I arms control treaty, which expires Dec. 5, as well as U.S. missile defense plans, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea and possible joint action against sea piracy.

Mullen, on his first visit to Moscow, said the meeting was frank and open.

The top military brass gave no further details about the talks.

The military talks follow renewed efforts by the two countries to reset relations that have become strained by events such as last year's Georgia war and NATO's expansion eastward.

"I'm very encouraged by our meetings and our mutual commitment to address these issues and strengthen our military-to-military cooperation," Mullen said.

"We have many common challenges … whether in Afghanistan or the challenges in missile defense, or in Iran or particularly for security in Europe," he added.
 

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8506e0b6-6...44feabdc0.html

Experts back calls to axe Trident

By Jim Pickard
Published: June 28 2009 22:20 | Last updated: June 28 2009 22:20

Axing the new Trident nuclear deterrent would help fill a growing “black hole” in the defence budget, according to a report by senior military figures to be published on Tuesday.

The radical proposition will be put forward by Lord Guthrie, former chief of the defence staff, Lord Ashdown, former head of the Liberal Democrats, and Lord Robertson, the former Nato secretary-general.

EDITOR’S CHOICE

Brown urged to review Trident plans - Jun-14

Rebellion fails to halt Trident replacement - Mar-14

Text of aide’s resignation letter - Mar-14

New resignation in Trident storm - Mar-14

Editorial comment: The virtue of delaying the Trident decision - Mar-14
Blow to Blair ahead of Trident vote - Mar-12


The trio of influential *figures wrote the report for a “national security commission” put together by the Institute for Public *Policy Research, a think-tank.

It comes after the Ministry of Defence was forced to deny claims on Sunday that the government had put the £20bn Trident replacement programme under “review” in an attempt to cut costs.

Trident’s upgrade, involving replacing four nuclear submarines, was agreed by Tony Blair in 2006.

Scrapping or downgrading Trident, a move advocated by Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg last week, could save billions of pounds at a time of severe Whitehall belt-tightening.

Des Browne, former defence secretary, said on Sunday that the MoD was facing tough financial decisions: “There is an order book which outstrips the department’s capacity to pay for it – that’s no secret,” he said.

It was reported on Sunday that the MoD was considering options for the Trident upgrade.

This could mean a ballistic missile system operating from mainland Britain or an aircraft fitted with a nuclear bomb that could be launched from an aircraft carrier.

One government source said ministers were still committed to renewing Trident because it was the “cornerstone” of Britain’s defence strategy.


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
 

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http://www.isria.com/pages/28_June_2009_46.htm
http://www.defenselink.mil//news/newsarticle.aspx?id=54930

US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff sees opportunity in struggles shared with Russia


The United States and Russia�s shared struggles offer great opportunities, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said during an address at Russia�s Military Academy of the General Staff in Moscow.

�We must seize these opportunities and learn from each other,� Navy Adm. Mike Mullen said. �Instead of merely settling for a relationship defined by differences, we have the opportunity to forge one based on mutual respect and the realization that our joint leadership must continue to be a cornerstone of security and stability for the world.�

Today, the two countries� shared history and challenges bring them closer together, he said. But there are more significant challenges ahead.

The spreading extremist insurgency in and around Afghanistan requires a regional approach. Nuclear proliferation in North Korea, the prospect of nuclear arms in Iran, and a global terrorist threat requires international efforts to overcome, he added.

�Today we live in a time of extraordinary change,� Mullen said. �Our rapidly changing battlefields range from cyberspace to wherever terrorists might strike next.

�As globalization, energy needs and economics shape our shared future, we as military leaders, must likewise adapt,� he added

But even military leaders look to their warriors to make their visions reality. The two best warriors the United States and Russia have were not recently discovered on the battlefield, but written about decades ago.

�In his classic work �War and Peace,� Tolstoy wrote that the strongest of all warriors are these two, time and patience,� Mullen said. �What Tolstoy knew then as our current struggle against violent extremism teaches us now that only our most deliberate and persistent efforts will take hold and root.�

The two countries have emerged from more than 40 years of Cold War with a new opportunity for increased and unprecedented cooperation on the challenges they face, he said. The United States and Russia share more than common dangers, however.

Members of each country�s military share the traditions of selfless service to a greater good, a boundless love for their countries and the desire to create better lives and a brighter world for their families, he said.

�In this very room sit the future military leaders who will see this way ahead,� Mullen said. �Now is the time. Here is the place for the armed forces of Russia and the United States to commit themselves to a new and better relationship, a relationship forged in trust and founded on our common desire to secure our citizens from harm.

�It is a new world out there, a new era. We need to rise to meet it,� he said. �Let us pledge to each other that, though we may not always see this world in quite the same way, we will nevertheless see our way clear to dialogue and discussion and debate.�

It is from these things that understanding and cooperation come, he said.

�It encourages me to know that my counterpart, General of the Army [Nikolai] Makarov, shares my belief in the power of our present opportunity,� Mullen said.

Mullen, who left for Russia on June 24, will round out his weeklong trip with a stop in Poland for talks with his counterpart there. He�ll also stop in Stuttgart, Germany, where he and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates will preside over the European Command�s change of command ceremony. Army Gen. John Craddock will turn over EUCOM�s reins to Navy Adm. James G. Stavridis at Husky Field on Patch Barracks on June 30.
 

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http://www.avionews.com/index.php?corpo=see_news_home.php&news_id=1106414&pagina_chiamante=index.php

Defense
06:32 pm - Monday
Military cooperation agreement between USA and Russia

Moscow, Russia - It might be signed during president Obama's visit
(WAPA) - USA and Russia might sign in July an agreement on military cooperation, during president Obama's visit scheduled from 6 to 8 July, the Russian armed forces' Chief of Staff, Nikolai Makarov, announced today after his meeting with his American counterpart, admiral Mike Mullen, quoted by local press agencies.

"We discussed a number of very serious and important matters -Makarov stated- related both to international and regional security. The main emphasis was laid on European security. We determined the basic matters of military cooperation in 2009 and in the future". Even if he confirmed an absolutely identical understanding with admiral Mullen on many topics, Makarov didn't issue any further detail on the content of the talks.

"What I got from this meeting was -Mike Mullen, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said- a readiness to move forward, in order to find shared solutions to the problematic issues that stand before us".

Relationships between the two countries have sensitively bettered in comparison with last August when they had been ruined by the brief war in Georgia. Following the election of president Obama in January, things have gone better, even if a huge discordance point is about the missile shield that the USA plan to install in Czech Republic and Poland, which Russia stated as being a threat to its security. (Avionews)

(009) 090626183224-1106414 (World Aeronautical Press Agency - 2009-06-26 06:32 pm)

So this broke Friday evening...interesting how much stuff's been over run by the death of Michael Jackson...
 

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5728b4c4-6404-11de-a818-00144feabdc0.html

G8 set to push for a return to ‘ethics’


By Guy Dinmore in Rome

Published: June 28 2009 18:18 | Last updated: June 28 2009 18:18

Flawed markets and fundamental weaknesses in the world economic system demand adoption of a “global standard” of norms and principles and a return to ethics in business, according to finance ministers from the Group of Eight club of rich countries.

In a 66-page report ex*pected to be endorsed by heads of government at next week’s G8 summit in Italy, ministers agree “a re*thinking of the framework of the global economic and financial system is critical”.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
G8 ministers at odds over stress tests - Jun-13
Summers denies adopting Europe-style policy
- Jun-12
Sun, sea and luxury await world leaders - Apr-04

“A set of common principles and standards governing international economic and financial activity is an essential foundation for stable global growth,” the report says, laying out the proposed Lecce framework, named after the baroque Italian city where the ministers met this month.

The report, seen by the Financial Times, recommends the “global standard” cover such areas as executive pay, corruption, banking, corporate governance, taxation and markets.

With voters angry at bailing out companies seen as victims of their own reckless greed, and some government officials under fire for their lack of standards, the moralistic tone captures a newfound interest in the importance of ethics.

Economic freedom had not been matched by respect of fundamental norms of “integrity and propriety”, the report says, calling for a strengthening of “business ethics and investor protection” as well as transparency.

Debate over the proposals has mirrored G8 divisions, with the “Anglo-Saxon” econ*omic model blamed by continental Europeans for creating the credit crisis.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
 

Housecarl

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Recall some of the articles regarding German and Russian cooperation....
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http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...438785/1/.html

US, Germany seeking to boost Moscow ties

Posted: 27 June 2009 0442 hrs

WASHINGTON : The United States and Germany are working to build warmer and more solid ties with Russia, US President Barack Obama vowed Friday ahead of a key visit to the former Cold War foe.

In talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel the two leaders "reaffirmed our commitment to a more substantive relationship with Russia," Obama told a White House press conference.

"Working with the Russian government on issues where we agree and honestly confronting those areas where we disagree."

Obama is due to visit Russia on July 6-8 in a bid to improve relations with Moscow that sunk to their lowest level in decades under the administration of his predecessor, George W. Bush.

"In Moscow, we will continue to explore ways in which the United States and Russia can advance our common interests, including our joint commitment to reducing our nuclear arsenals and strengthening the global nonproliferation regime," Obama said.

Signs of the warming ties came already Friday when Moscow's top military commander Nikolai Makarov, the head of Russia's general staff, said the US and Russia would sign a military cooperation agreement during Obama's visit.

"We reached an absolutely identical understanding that in the world there are many more threats and challenges that we should solve on the political and military levels," Makarov said after talks with his US counterpart Admiral Michael Mullen in Moscow.

Such an announcement would have been unthinkable in August when the Georgia crisis pushed relations between the two nations to their lowest point since the Cold War.

For her part, Merkel said Obama's Russia visit would be important for Germany and the European Union.

"We have every interest also in seeing a very good relationship between the United States of America and Russia," she said.

She highlighted the important role Moscow could play in the current crisis over Iran's suspect nuclear program, adding "We want to forge a common position wherever possible with Russia, but also with China.

"We've done that over the years in the format of the United Nations with a number of resolutions, and that needs to be continued."

January's inauguration of Obama, who has pledged to "reset" US-Russian relations, has contributed to the friendlier atmosphere but obstacles still remain to smooth ties between the two former Cold War superpowers.

One major sticking point is the dispute over the US missile shield. Russia fiercely opposes a US plan to place anti-missile radars in the Czech Republic and interceptors in Poland, calling them a threat to Russian security.

Washington says the shield is no threat to Russia and is instead meant to protect against "rogue states" like Iran. But since Obama took power it has been reviewing the project.

- AFP /ls
 

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http://euobserver.com/?aid=28373

Czech MPs mull suspension of Klaus' powers over Lisbon treaty

ANDREW RETTMAN

25.06.2009 @ 17:34 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The Czech social democrat party is discussing the possibility of suspending president Vaclav Klaus' powers if he does not sign the EU's Lisbon treaty.

The temporary suspension would require a simple majority of 41 votes in the country's 81-seat senate and would allow caretaker prime minister Jan Fischer to sign the document instead.
2da50639fb35.png

President Klaus vowed earlier this week that he would be "the last" politician in Europe to sign Lisbon (Photo: wikipedia)

Social democrat senator Alena Gajduskova is leading an "intensive debate" on the subject in her party, the secretary of the senate's constitutional commission, Jan Kysela, told EUobserver.

Ms Gajduskova's campaign is also linked to president Klaus' refusal to sign off on the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which was ratified by the Czech parliament in October 2008.

The discussion is likely to pick up steam in the senate's next plenary session starting 20 July. Senators are also waiting for the Czech Constitutional Court's decision on Lisbon before pressing ahead with the motion, Mr Kysela added.

The Czech parliament ratified the Lisbon treaty in May.

The court is expected to rule on Lisbon's compatibility with the Czech constitution in September. But the decision could come in late July if judges throw out the legal challenge on technical grounds.

The eurosceptic Mr Klaus vowed earlier this week that he would be "the last" politician in Europe to sign Lisbon. The treaty is also awaiting final approval in Germany and Poland, as well as a second referendum in Ireland.

The president's powers could be suspended on grounds that he is trying to act above the law.

"There is nothing in the constitution that gives the president the right to veto decisions of the country's highest institutions. Otherwise we could be considered as some kind of absolutist monarchy," former Constitutional Court judge Vojtech Cepl told newspaper Mlada fronta Dnes on Thursday (25 June).

It is unclear if a social democrat motion against Mr Klaus would secure enough votes, however.

The pro-Lisbon party has 29 of the 81 senate seats. But the conservative ODS faction, which has become more anti-Lisbon since the ODS government fell earlier this year, has 35 votes.

"It depends how many people would turn up [to a vote]," Mr Kysela said.

"The probability is very low. It's the opinion of just a few senators and not of the whole chamber. The president of the senate, Mr Premysl Sobotka [an ODS party member], has said he doesn't agree with the suspension," senate press spokesman, Petr Kostka, said.

© 2009 EUobserver.com. All rights reserved.
 

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...fuels-flames-of-dissent-across-continent.html

European Union's Lisbon Treaty fuels flames of dissent across continent
The Lisbon Treaty is expected to take a key step towards becoming law across the European Union this week when Germany's highest court rules that it is broadly compatible with the country's constitution.

By Nick Meo and Patrick Hennessy
Published: 8:30AM BST 28 Jun 2009

European Union's Lisbon Treaty fuels flames of dissent across continent
A group of hooded people burn flags of Spain and France at the end of one of the pro-independence rallies celebrated on occasion of Catalonia's Day Photo: EPA

The much-anticipated judgment will mean that only three out of the EU's 27 member states will still have to complete formal ratification of the treaty - Poland, the Czech Republic and Ireland.

The former two countries merely need their presidents' signatures on the legislation to finalise the process. Ireland, where voters rejected the Treaty last year, will stage a new referendum in October - with the government increasingly confident of a "Yes" vote this time round after the EU assured Ireland of its independence over taxation, security, defence, abortion, and workers' rights.

Politicians across Europe are now looking forward to a day when the controversial treaty gives the EU more streamlined institutions - with greater central power and, for the first time, a new "President of Europe" to represent all the member states around the world.

In Britain, the government has refused demands for a referendum - despite a pledge in Labour's 2005 general election manifesto to hold a public vote on the Lisbon Treaty's predecessor, the European Constitutional Treaty, which collapsed after being voted down in France and the Netherlands.

Recently, however, it has been the Conservatives who have faced difficulties on the treaty. Both David Cameron and William Hague, the Eurosceptic shadow foreign secretary, have publicly pledged that, even if the treaty completes its ratification process in October with an Irish "Yes" vote, they "will not let matters rest."

Kenneth Clarke, the pro-Brussels shadow business secretary, stirred up a hornets' nest by claiming that his party's "settled policy" was not to reopen the treaty once it became law. His comments led to Mr Cameron privately reassuring Tory backbenchers that the party was not softening its tough line on Europe, as revealed by The Sunday Telegraph last week.

Internal Tory troubles over Europe were also heightened last week when the party announced details of its new allies in a new "anti-federalist" group in the European parliament which sees the Tories sitting alongside politicians from a range of parties - mainly from Eastern Europe - some of which have uncomfortable views on homosexual rights and immigration.

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The group represents eight countries - above the seven-nation threshold required to receive funding and staffing from the parliament.

The announcement was made on the same day as the election of the new Speaker of the House of Commons - attracting criticism that Mr Cameron was seeking to divert attention away from his new alliance in Strasbourg.

Last week a Finnish Euro-MP pulled out of the 55-strong grouping, which includes 26 Tories and is expected to be the fourth biggest alliance in the newly elected parliament, because some of its members were "too extreme."

Hannu Takkula told The Sunday Telegraph that his British colleagues were not the problem and added: "Some other groups have policies that are too extreme and policies that are too much against Europe."

Two of the parliamentary grouping's members used to belong to the far-right League of Polish Families, which supports capital punishment, and whose youth wing has been accused of attacking gay rights marches. Another MEP in the group, from Latvia, belongs to a party which supports an annual march commemorating former Latvian members of the Waffen-SS.

While the Tories ponder their uncomfortable new European bedfellows, leaders of some of Europe's separatist movements are celebrating the progress of the treaty towards full ratification. They are convinced that the more powerful the EU's own institutions become, the weaker the nation state - and the stronger the case for granting breakaway regions their independence.

The European Union has always had a strong hold over regional policy - including supplying funding - and regional leaders across the continent sense a fresh shift towards breakaways. Regions will have, for example, powers to challenge decisions at the European Court of Justice for the first time, rights which have so far been the preserve of national parliaments. Some 300 different regions already have offices in Brussels.

As well as these greater powers, the proliferation of even smaller states among some of the EU's newer members - including Slovakia and Slovenia - is encouraging those fighting for local independence elsewhere.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.newsweek.com/id/204315

False Alarms in the East

Analyzing the next stage in the crisis.

Ruchir Sharma
NEWSWEEK
From the magazine issue dated Jul 13, 2009

In financial circles, the mere mention of Eastern Europe these days conjures up images of collapsing banking systems, currency in-stability, and capital flight. The travails of the Baltic states have come to symbolize all that has gone wrong with Eastern Europe's high-growth economic model. Some analysts even believe that the region is now the weakest link in the global economy and could be the source of yet another financial contagion.

At the center of the storm are small countries like Latvia, now paying the price for the heady growth of the past few years, which was fueled by unbridled household consumption and property investment. With capital flows drying up of late, Latvia is under pressure to break the peg with the euro and devalue the exchange rate—a move that could lead to widespread losses for many of its households and banks, as the country's debt is largely held in foreign currency.

Latvia is trying to stick with the peg, relying on billions of Euros' worth of assistance from the International Monetary Fund and European Union, which come with the usual strictures of fiscal discipline entailing painful spending cuts. The suspense relating to the fate of Latvia's peg is indeed intense, because any devaluation of the lat would make currency pegs in nearby Estonia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria more vulnerable.

Yet even if this happens, the size of the problem won't match the hype. These are $25 billion to $50 billion economies, which means that the repercussions for the world economy will be limited. Western European banks, which own nearly half of Eastern Europe's banking assets, have the most to lose. But assuming the value of nonperforming loans in all of Eastern Europe totaled 10 percent of the region's total economy, parent banks in Western Europe would suffer losses of only about $60 billion—less than a quarter of those incurred from their exposure to toxic U.S. banking assets.

The key reason that Eastern Europe's problems aren't quite as serious as generally believed is that the bigger economies in the region never got caught in the credit boom-bust cycle. The $500 billion-plus Polish economy—which is the biggest in Central and Eastern Europe—has no banking problems, and didn't rely on hot money to rapidly boost consumption growth. Instead, Poland spent much of the past decade reforming and instituting Western European laws, which subsequently helped pull large amounts of foreign direct investment into its manufacturing and service sectors.

The Czech Republic, which at $220 billion is the region's second-largest economy, didn't overextend itself either. Credit penetration in the Czech economy remains low, at 50 percent of GDP, and the pace of credit expansion during the boom years of 2003–07 was well below the 20 to 25 percent annual rate that usually leads to trouble over time.

Both Poland and the Czech Republic have the competitive advantage of a well-educated and highly skilled workforce, which supports strong productivity growth. This, along with substantial foreign direct investment, has historically played the most important role in a nation's long-term economic development. Furthermore, both Poland and the Czech Republic have flexible exchange-rate systems, and their currencies have already fallen to fairly competitive levels. Once global credit conditions improve, these economies should be able to resume the natural growth path that will eventually put them in line with richer Western European counterparts.

However, smaller countries in the Baltic and Balkan areas face a prospect similar to that of the heavily indebted East Asian tigers in 1997–98. Their growth will continue to be severely crimped as the overextended banking sector shrinks and badly scarred foreign investors are reluctant to return. These smaller economies will also have to rethink their development model, now that the road to riches based on easy money is no more.

All these developments have a political fallout. The bigger powers of Western Europe will probably be less inclined to further integrate their smaller, beleaguered neighbors into the euro zone. This marks a major change from the rapid accession path of so many Eastern European economies over the past few years, a path that significantly increased their per capita income levels. That shift will have a major impact on the wealth and the future of the smaller nations in the region. But it's hardly an earth-shattering event for the rest of the world, given that the affected economies are only a tiny fraction of the global economy. Despite all the talk about weak links, the current fuss over the region far outweighs the size of the problem.

Sharma is head of emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Humm....
__________________
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http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6597686.ece

From The Times
June 29, 2009
Lose Trident and win the moral war
Forget the financial, military and political arguments, owning nuclear weapons makes us hypocrites
Launch video timeline
Cardinal Keith O'Brien

A recent editorial in this paper on Trident, noting that “national defence is one of the cardinal duties of the statesman”, caused me to reflect on the moral duties of a cardinal.

In the debate surrounding the replacement of Trident, we have heard a great deal about the financial, diplomatic, military and political arguments relevant to retention or rejection. By contrast we have heard precious little about the moral arguments involved. Sometimes the debate around a particular topic becomes so confused and nuanced that the moral considerations of any decision can be lost in the fog.

In the context of Trident renewal, the moral case is really quite simple. It cuts through and across any others. Because it is simple, let me put it simply. In any and all circumstances the use of a nuclear weapon would be immoral. Since, to use these weapons would be immoral, to threaten their use is immoral and to hold them with a view to threatening their use is also immoral.

We not only violate moral principles with our nuclear weapons but undermine our moral authority in the world. We were prepared to engage in a brutal war with Iraq to ensure that nation did not possess any weapons of mass destruction. We did this in the belief that possession of such weapons is morally reprehensible, which it is, unless of course we possess them. Our duality and moral hypocrisy fatally undermined our motivation in Iraq.

We must simply ask ourselves: “Are nuclear weapons useable?” The inherently indiscriminate and devastatingly powerful destructive force of nuclear weapons makes them qualitatively different from any other type of ordnance. Their first use, under any circumstances whatsoever, would be a crime against God and humanity. Likewise, a counter-strike in retaliation would be just as immoral, even more so, because it would be motivated not by defence but by the hollow and hellish vengeance of the vanquished. It is perhaps no coincidence that one of the British Trident fleet is named HMS Vengeance.

In war a primary duty of the military is to protect the innocent and non-combatants. This foundational aspect of military conflict through the ages is brutally and utterly violated when a nuclear weapon is deployed.

Even a tactical deployment would constitute such a violation, yet Britain has no tactical nuclear weapons. Instead 200 identical warheads leased from the US and quartered for the most part in Scottish waters comprise Britain’s strategic arsenal. Each one is eight times more powerful than the bomb that devastated Hiroshima.

We all accept that threatening behaviour is a crime. In the domestic context it instils fear and mistrust and destroys relationships, so too in the international military context. To the Christian and to most people of faith, threatening someone with such awesomely destructive power runs utterly counter to the call of God: a call to love, peace and reconciliation, not destruction, domination and force.

I join this debate as a Christian minister and a human being who believes in the dignity and sanctity of human life. This pro-life message is at the heart of the Catholic Church and is one that the Church champions, “in season and out of season”. No one can uphold the teachings of Christ unless they speak out in defence of life, and the mass killing of innocent victims at any time and in any place.

Life must mean life in all its fullness and at every stage, from conception to natural death, and any premature taking of life at any stage has deep moral implications.

This is why the Catholic Church opposes abortion, stands against capital punishment, works to bring an end to the scandal of child soldiers, the trade in small arms and so much more. It is why the Church has consistently opposed the development of nuclear weapons, and why it demands their abolition, now more than ever. None of what I say comes from me alone, but from the highest moral authority in the Catholic Church; the Pope and the bishops working together and in Council.

The last Council was Vatican II more than 40 years ago, but its teaching on this subject rings down through the decades: “Any act of war aimed indiscriminately at the destruction of entire cities or of extensive areas along with their population is a crime against God and man himself. It merits unequivocal and unhesitating condemnation.”

This is moral teaching of the clearest kind, and my duty is to pass that teaching on. To act morally, to do the right thing, often takes courage, and sometimes means taking a stand that others do not agree with or accept. That is the test of leadership. Britain now has a golden opportunity to truly lead and to turn its back on the path of mass destruction.

In doing so we can assist others, particularly Russia and the United States who have shown much more willingness to be courageous than Britain has in recent months, but who have so much farther to go to disarm. Rejecting Trident, not in 2024 but right now, will bring economic dividends at home and give moral leadership abroad. It would allow us, at last, to stand on the moral high ground and to invite the nuclear armed nations of the world to join us there.

Cardinal Keith O’Brien is President of the Bishops’ Conference of Scotland

* Have your say

Close your eyes and imagine a world where the UK has no nuclear weapons but Iran, China and N. Korea do.

Does the moral high ground feel comfortable or does it simply make you look like an easy target.

John G, Vancouver, Canada

This is the man who advised voters not to vote Labour and now complains about SNP politics.

He is a bigot and who elected him to dable in politics. Look after the poor the meek and the hungry by all means and try and turn the other cheek yourself but don't tell me how to defend my country.

Phil1, Edinburgh, UK

What a load of naive rubbish. Very poor arguments. If priests like this had run the West in the 20th century, we'd be saluting the swastika or the hammer and sickle. In international relations, moral principles are worth little without the force to back them up - read Thucydides' Melian Dialogue.

NT, Pittsburgh, USA
 

Housecarl

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http://www.defencemanagement.com/news_story.asp?id=9925

Trident alternatives under review

Monday, June 29, 2009

The government is reportedly reviewing the Trident replacement programme in an effort to both find savings and appease Labour backbenchers and core voters.

An official announcement could be made sometime this autumn before the Labour party conference in Birmingham.

In terms of defence, a cut to or elimination of Trident could result in substantial savings for the MoD at a time when it faces one of the bleakest budget situations ever.

MoD procurement officials are believed to already be studying alternatives to the £20bn programme.

These include going ahead with the Vanguard replacement programme, but with less boats, and going ahead with the Vanguard replacements but extending the life of the current warheads by 15-25 years. This would bring the warhead replacement programme into line with the US and may allow the two countries to partner together on the project.

Some commanders may feel uneasy about the former option given the fact that recently two of the submarines were out of service due to major repairs. In the future a similar scenario could leave Britain with one or zero active nuclear deterrent submarines.

Other options include an aircraft that carries a nuclear payload. It would be launched from one of the two new aircraft carriers which would have to be on deployment at all times. This however would force Britain to build the new carriers, an option still under review, and create a lower profile for the carrier fleet.

A final option would be to have a land based ballistic nuclear missile system. This option would be among the cheapest but it would limit Britain's ability to respond to threats in Asia, in particular, North Korea.

The new Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth is believed to be open to the idea of at least reviewing the Trident programme.
 

Housecarl

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Trident deterrent is vital - Waiting


Last updated 12:17, Monday, 29 June 2009

THE Trident missile nuclear deterrent and a fleet of replacement submarines are needed as badly as ever, according to the head of a shipyard lobby group.

Parliament voted in favour of renewing Britain’s deterrent-carrying submarines in 2007, believing them necessary in a world where other nations were investing heavily in renewing their nuclear arsenals and submarine forces.

The so-called Successor Project for a fleet of up to four big submarines to replace the existing Barrow-built fleet will secure the future of Barrow shipyard until 2030.

But with the economic crisis and spending cuts looming, Trident is increasingly being criticised.

Terry Waiting, chairman of the Keep Our Future Afloat Campaign in Barrow, which lobbies for shipyard work, said it was vital to sustain key skills and capability in the UK submarine industrial base.

Discounting Liberal Democrat claims that the UK submarine-based deterrent is a “cold war missile system,” Mr Waiting said nations like Russia and China were reinvesting in their nuclear submarine fleets.

Mr Waiting said: “Nuclear weapons are possessed or strongly desired by an expanding number of nations.

“Some say that Britain can no longer afford or needs the protection provided by the nuclear deterrent that my generation enjoyed. I think that view is fundamentally misconceived. Economic turbulence can quickly lead to instability and the potential for state-based conflict. Adversaries and other nations will always seek whatever advantages they can. Knowing that, we have to be prepared for contingencies we haven’t even considered yet.”

Mr Waiting said at a cost of less than 0.2 per cent of UK’s GDP over the lifetime of the deterrent, Trident represented good value insurance in an increasingly uncertain world. It would be dangerous for Britain to divest itself of its nuclear weapons, he added, which was why the skills and capabilities of the UK submarine industrial base needed to be sustained.

Around 150 engineers and designers are working in Barrow on concepts for the Successor project submarines.
 

Housecarl

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World
Russia to deliver new security proposal in Brussels July 22

Dmitri Rogozin
RIA Novosti Sergey Subbotin | Buy this image
Related News

* Moscow says European security treaty not aimed against NATO
* Russia offers to host series of global security meetings in 2010
* Security issues to be discussed at St. Petersburg economic forum
* Lavrov says arms control pact with U.S. must give equal security

16:1629/06/2009

MOSCOW, June 29 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's proposals for a new National Security Strategy is to be presented at NATO headquarters in Brussels on July 22, Russia's envoy to NATO said Monday.

"A high-level expert - one of the leaders of Russia's Security Council - will arrive for that," Dmitry Rogozin said during a video link from Brussels organized by RIA Novosti.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree in May on the National Security Strategy up to 2020.

Rogozin also said that NATO had invited "the Russian envoy to take part on July 7 in a seminar devoted to NATO strategic development issues."

He also said the first meeting between a Russian representative and the newly-appointed NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who takes up the post on August 1, will be held August 11.

"I think at the August 11 meeting he is to outline prospects for his trip to Russia," Rogozin said.

Rogozin said discussions on a Russia's proposal for a European Security Treaty could start in September during a Russia-NATO Council session.

Saturday's informal foreign ministerial meeting of the Russia-NATO Council was the first high-level talks since last August's five-day war between Russia and Georgia, after which contacts were frozen. Russia then recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which was attacked by Tbilisi in an attempt to bring it back under central control.

Relations between Russia and NATO have also been frayed in recent years over the military alliance's eastern expansion. Ukraine and Georgia, both former Soviet republics, have applied to join, but their U.S.-backed bids were turned down due to pressure from Germany and France at a 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest.
 

Shacknasty Shagrat

Has No Life - Lives on TB
So Russia's our friend again....how reassuring. :kaid::kaid::kaid:
'Now is the time. Here is the place for the armed forces of Russia and the United States to commit themselves to a new and better relationship, a relationship forged in trust and founded on our common desire to secure our citizens from harm.'
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen.
Incredible
SS
 

Housecarl

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US military chief hopeful on Poland deal

12 hours ago

WARSAW (AFP) — The US military chief Monday said he was hopeful Washington and Warsaw could wrap up talks on a deal tied to a anti-missile plan opposed by Russia but which Washington says is needed to counter threats by Iran.

"There are very important ongoing negotiations," Admiral Mike Mullen told reporters, referring to talks on a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) governing the presence of US troops on Polish soil.

"I'm not just hopeful, but also optimistic, that they can move forward," he said.

Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, was in Warsaw to meet with his Polish counterpart General Franciszek Gagor.

In 2008, Warsaw and Washington struck a deal on deploying 10 US long-range interceptor missiles in Poland as part of a global air-defence system.

They also inked a related accord on boosting Poland's air defences by deploying Patriot missiles.

Before the deals can come into force, however, the two allies have to complete their SOFA negotiations.

Gagor noted the talks were in the hands of defence and foreign ministry negotiators from both sides, rather than the military.

"They are dealing with the political and legal issues. They are proceeding with that," he said.

According to the previous US administration of George W. Bush the anti-missile system -- meant to be ready by 2013, and including a radar base in the Czech Republic -- aimed to thwart attacks by "rogue states", notably Iran.

But Moscow was enraged by the plans in its Soviet-era stamping ground, and threatened to train nuclear warheads on Poland and the Czech Republic, which broke free from the communist bloc in 1989 and joined NATO 10 years later.

Bush's successor Barack Obama this year launched a review of the controversial system, saying it must be cost-effective and proven to work.

The issue is expected to be on the table during Obama's July 6-8 visit to Moscow. Russian officials have said that if Washington gives way on the shield, Moscow may agree to a reduction of both nations' nuclear arsenals.

Obama has nonetheless said Washington would move forward with the system as long as there was an Iranian missile threat -- something Mullen underscored.

"Clearly the United States is both concerned about the growing missile capabilities, and the destabilising aspect of those capabilities, that are coming out of Iran, and is very committed to looking for solutions that best resolve and protect against that threat," Mullen said.

Earlier this month, the Polish government complained Washington was failing to give it a clear indication on the future of the shield and the Patriots.

"It would be weeks to months after the completion of a (SOFA) agreement that we would be able to deploy the first Patriot battery," said Mullen, noting that Washington's initial plan is to provide one for training purposes.

Poland has insisted it wants a fully-operational battery that can be integrated directly into the nation's air-defence system.

Gagor, however, did not stoke the spat.

"The Polish military is looking forward to the battery being deployed in Poland... I believe that the battery will be in Poland sooner rather than later," he said.

Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved.
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Poland waits patiently for U.S. decision on missile shield: FM
www.chinaview.cn
2009-06-30 05:33:50

WARSAW, June 29 (Xinhua) -- Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on Monday that Poland waits patiently for the confirmation of the U.S. decision on the anti-missile shield to be stationed in the country.

The minister stressed that the agreement on the anti-missile shield signed by Poland and the United States last August was accompanied by a declaration providing for the deployment in Poland of a Patriot missile battery.

"The declaration specifies that a garrison will be set up in a location selected by the Polish side in accordance with its defense needs by the end of the year 2012. Rotational stationing of the Patriot missiles is possible also before that date," Sikorski was quoted as saying by the Polish news agency PAP.

There are no legal problems preventing such rotational deployment to begin still this year. "We would be pleased if this is indeed the case, but we will not enter into a dispute over a few months this way or another," Sikorski noted.

Poland wants the missiles "not only to arrive here armed, but also to be incorporated IT-wise into our air defense system," he stressed.

The foreign minister ironized about some recent Polish press articles suggesting that the U.S. authorities, including President Barack Obama, preferred to put off detailed agreements with Poland concerning the Patriot missile base and the anti-missile shield base in Redzikowo.

"We are waiting for the confirmation of U.S. decisions on Redzikowo, the Patriot base should be ready by 2012," the minister noted.

Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen said on Monday that the installation of Patriots in Poland would be possible after the signing of a Polish-U.S. SOFA accord on the stationing of U.S. troops on Polish territory.

Mullen, who was in Warsaw to meet with his Polish counterpart, General Franciszek Gagor, added that the Patriots could be located in Poland "within weeks or months," but noted that the missiles would be armed only for training purposes.

Under the Polish-U.S. accord signed last year, 10 ground base interceptors are to be installed in Redzikowo, northern Poland, as part of a larger missile defense system that would include a radar system in the Czech Republic.

Russia objects to the missile shield plan, warning it will deploy a short-range missile system in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad bordering Poland in response to the U.S. system.

Earlier this year, U.S. President Barack Obama launched a review of the controversial plan, saying the anti-missile system must be cost-effective and proven to work.
Editor: yan
 

Housecarl

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http://blog.psaonline.org/2009/06/29/start-is-just-the-beginning/
Partnership for a Secure America
START is Just the Beginning
by Daniel Cassman | June 29th, 2009

missileThis December, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), is set to expire. START is the only mechanism that places verifiable limits on Russian and American nuclear arsenals. Currently, diplomats from both nations have been hard at work negotiating an extension or successor to the treaty. At a hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee last week, former Secretary of Defense William Perry, Ambassador Thomas Graham, and Dr. Keith B. Payne discussed the prospects for U.S.-Russia nuclear arms reductions. They were generally optimistic that we can make progress on arms reduction talks. It is imperative that we negotiate a new arms reduction treaty with Russia. But renegotiating START should be only the first step in a much longer process. We should view a new START as the beginning of a broader effort to curb nuclear proliferation and repair our relations with Russia.

Many experts agree that progress on START is crucial to maintaining the nonproliferation regime. Indeed, Ambassador Graham cited the recent PSA statement on nuclear proliferation as evidence of a broad bipartisan consensus on the importance of strategic arms reduction. Additionally, Dr. Payne called for an agreement that encompasses Russia’s large supply of tactical nuclear weapons, something Russia has resisted. Another major proliferation concern (though unrelated to arms reduction) is Russia’s continued support for Iran; it has supplied nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr reactor and blocked or weakened efforts to stop Iran’s uranium enrichment.

The Russians have their own list of objectives. Russia has insisted that arms reductions talks should encompass more than offensive strategic forces. Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev has stated that he will only agree to a START successor if the United States addresses Russia’s concerns about ballistic missile defense. Russia is also disturbed by the expansion of NATO. While Medvedev has voiced his support of modest stockpile reductions, he has called for reducing the number of delivery vehicles by “several times.” According to Dr. Payne, Russia wants to limit delivery vehicles because Russia’s long-range missiles are quickly becoming obsolete. Due to a lingering Cold War mentality and self-consciousness over its limited conventional power, Russia is eager to maintain strategic parity with the United States. As Russia’s delivery systems go off-line, Russia will need American cooperation to maintain a comparable array of delivery systems.

Both the United States and Russia have compelling security reasons to negotiate a successor to START, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that things will go flawlessly. There is, however, room to maneuver—for example, Russia might agree to reduce its tactical nuclear weapons if we limit our delivery systems. At the very least, we should be able to extend START’s crucial verification mechanisms and reduce our arsenals below the ceiling set in 2002. That limited agreement needs to come before START expires in December, and therefore it should be relatively modest and focused on offensive weapons. But it should be negotiated with the understanding that it will be followed by a more comprehensive nonproliferation agreement that will address American and Russian concerns beyond offensive weapons. Given both sides’ interests, it’s not hard to imagine how that second agreement might take shape.

Generally, the United States should work to relieve Russia’s concerns about missile defense and the expansion of NATO in return for more support on Iran. Though missile defense has been a sticking point, the witnesses agreed that there is some room for flexibility. For example, the United States might agree not to deploy missile defense systems in former Soviet satellites. Another option would be to negotiate a new ABM treaty. American officials insist that our missile defense efforts are arrayed not against Russia, but against emerging threats from rogue states. If that’s the case, then the two countries should be able to find some middle ground in which the U.S. can pursue missile defense without threatening Russia’s strategic forces. With regard to NATO, we should agree not to recruit aggressively in Eastern Europe and to slow expansion of the alliance.

In exchange for our cooperation, we should request Russia’s support on a Security Council resolution to enforce sanctions on Iran. We should encourage Russia to help us lead a multilateral effort to end Iran’s uranium enrichment programs. Only if Russia agrees to support us in negotiations with Iran will we be flexible on NATO and missile defense.

An agreement along these lines will have crucial implications for international security. A new arms reduction treaty will reduce the world’s nuclear weapons and demonstrate our commitment to our Article VI obligations under the NPT. A more amenable approach to missile defense will ensure that we can continue to develop that technology without threatening Russia. An agreement on tactical nuclear weapons will reduce a serious proliferation threat. Gaining Russia’s backing against Iran will help us make progress on one of the most intractable security problems that we face. Repairing our relations with Russia is critical to American security, and extending START will be a strong first step.

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Housecarl

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http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1016/42/379163.htm

Monday, June 29, 2009
Updated at 29 June 2009 23:30 Moscow Time.
The Moscow Times » Issue 4177 » Opinion

Obama Will Make Russia a Priority
30 June 2009By Mikhail Margelov


U.S. President Barack Obama's administration came to the White House during a difficult period. The economic crisis forced it to make greater allowances for the domestic situation in developing its foreign policy than is customary for U.S. politics. And apart from the country's economic woes, the new administration cannot help but be concerned about the problems created by former President George W. Bush -- troubles that not only wound national pride but constitute a direct threat to the United States' traditional leadership role in the world. Observers unanimously note the weakening of Washington's global standing, pointing to its tarnished image, its relative loss of influence in South America and its failure to meet its stated goal of spreading democracy in the Middle East.

Without question, Obama will try to rectify those failures, but he will do so by using different methods than the preceding Republican administration.

The new Democratic administration prefers the use of so-called "smart power" that relies on a wider array of tools to influence the situation than the use of military threats alone. In particular, the United States intends to give greater consideration to world opinion and international institutions when formulating its policies and actions. Obama promised to make wide use of the negotiation process to "consult with the world," taking global interdependence into consideration.

The United States is "tired" of the burden of single-handedly and constantly expanding an unlimited zone of responsibility around the globe. Washington needs, if not allies, at least loyal partners.

It is well-known that a number of disagreements accumulated in U.S.-Russian relations during the years of the Bush administration. These concerned the deployment of elements of U.S. missile defense batteries in Central Europe, policies in the Caucasus, the relationship with Ukraine, Iran's nuclear program and NATO expansion. It is therefore unreasonable to expect an instantaneous improvement in relations. The first meeting between Obama and President Dmitry Medvedev in London, and their summit next week in Moscow, are only the initial efforts at improving those relations. However, both Obama and Medvedev left their London meeting on April 1 with favorable impressions. The U.S. president has declared explicitly that he is traveling to Moscow to "reset" relations with Russia. Washington considers it necessary to do so because there are many important problems in the world that the United States cannot resolve with Russia's participation, and vice versa. The Moscow summit is certain to include talks on various forms of strategic cooperation, including missile defense, nuclear nonproliferation, the fight against international terrorism, joint actions in Afghanistan and the Middle East, economic ties and measures for overcoming the crisis.

Russia might expand the level of its cooperation by offering more than the current, single corridor through its territory by which the United States can deliver supplies to its forces in Afghanistan. It is entirely possible that a certain rapprochement will be achieved on the U.S. and Russian positions concerning Iran's nuclear program. That question is clearly connected to U.S. plans to deploy missile defense systems in Central Europe. It should also be taken into account that the new U.S. administration believes that relations with Russia should be pursued on a strictly pragmatic, not ideological, basis.

Obviously, high on the agenda will be a range of questions connected with signing a new treaty limiting strategic nuclear weapons. The START I treaty expires at the end of this year. The agreement has played itself out. However, painstaking preparations have been made to fashion a new treaty with weapons limitations terms that are acceptable to both countries. The Russian side feels that it would make sense to leave certain aspects of START unchanged, such as the mechanisms for verifying compliance with the agreement and a range of other points.

The fact that the U.S. and Russian presidents will be meeting in Moscow on the eve of a Group of Eight summit inspires hope that, after a long period of stagnation, a new life will be breathed into U.S.-Russian relations. This is because neither Russia nor the United States is satisfied with the present condition of relations. Both sides are also interested in developing trade and economic ties, realizing that the crisis will not last forever. It is even possible that Moscow and Washington will reach some form of understanding over the issue of missile defense in Central Europe.

As Obama declared, U.S.-Russian relations go beyond bilateral considerations. He said the solution to a large number of major international questions depends upon these ties. Russia was not originally a high foreign policy priority for the new U.S. administration. However, I think that will change after the two presidents meet face to face in Moscow.


Mikhail Margelov is chairman of the International Affairs Committee in the Federation Council.
 

Moggy

Inactive
One of the better threads on Main, Housecarl, thank you for all the valuable information.

Moggy
 

Housecarl

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Monday, June 29, 2009
Updated at 29 June 2009 23:30 Moscow Time.
The Moscow Times » Issue 4177 » Disquiet in the Ranks

Oil Will Dictate U.S. Ties
30 June 2009
By Alexander Golts


Whenever people ask me about the future of U.S.-Russian relations, I answer that they will be determined by the price of oil. If the price stays below $40 per barrel, relations will be great. Both sides will hold talks on a strategic partnership, Russia will be included in Middle East negotiations, and Moscow will carry out limited participation in joint military activities. If on the other hand the price of oil is more than $60 per barrel, Moscow will resume "getting up off its knees" and attempt to assert itself by creating problems for the West -- and the United States in particular -- under the slogan of "defending national interests."

By a strange twist of fate, the price of oil happens to be hovering near $60 per barrel, and Moscow strategists cannot decide which course to pursue.

Thus, President Dmitry Medvedev has announced his readiness to reduce the number of strategic delivery nuclear weapons to levels lower than those stated in the START I treaty. What's more, Moscow has declared its willingness to reduce the number of nuclear warheads below the level stipulated in the Moscow Treaty of 2002. In return, the United States should cancel plans to deploy elements of its missile defense system in Central Europe. At first glance, that appears to be a fair trade. In reality, though, it is not. START established a ceiling of 1,600 delivery vehicles for each side. Moscow has officially informed Washington that it possesses 814 such delivery vehicles. However, defense specialists estimate that Russia currently has only 600 delivery vehicles. That makes it possible for Russia to fulfill its pledge without eliminating a single actual weapon. The same is true regarding warheads. Moscow would have little difficulty in limiting its total warheads to 1,500 -- close to its current actual total -- even if the Moscow Treaty allows for as many as 1,700 to 2,200.

The same thinking is behind Medvedev's proposal for a new European security pact. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently explained that the pact is necessary because Europe should "not provide for its own security at the expense of the security of others, should not allow any activity within the framework of military alliances and coalitions that would weaken the unity of the overall security of the region nor permit the use of its territory to the detriment of the security of other states, to the detriment of peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region, and should not permit military alliances to develop at the expense of the security of other participants in the treaty."

At the same time, Lavrov pretends that he does not see two obvious flaws in his argument. The first is the difference between a security system such as NATO and one established by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. NATO was created by a group of states with common values to ensure their mutual defense against an external threat. The NATO countries guarantee each other mutual defense. The OSCE provides a fundamentally different form of security guarantee -- the assurance that member states will not attack each other. It took a considerable amount of time and effort for member states to reach an agreement on confidence-building measures and to determine limits to the number of armed forces and weapons required to prevent surprise attacks.

But now, Russia has suggested finding a way to determine the extent to which security is compromised by this or that action of a particular state. That would require establishing an objective indicator that could serve as a common denominator for the subjective fears and biases of various states. Thus, NATO insists that granting membership to former Soviet republics does not constitute a security threat to any other state. Moscow's position is the exact opposite. The only possible solution is for all security-related questions, including internal NATO decisions, to be approved by some form of pan-European forum. In that way Moscow would finally receive veto power over NATO decisions, primarily concerning the admission of new member states -- a right Russia has unsuccessfully striven to obtain for the past decade.

I doubt that anyone in the Kremlin seriously entertains any hopes that such an initiative would succeed. The goal in putting it forward is to gain time until Moscow can finally decide if it plans to befriend the West or treat it with enmity.

Alexander Golts is deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.
 

Housecarl

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June 30, 2009
How Should U.S. Engage Russia?
By Joshua Tucker & Jim Arkedis

Just after Independence Day, President Obama will travel to Moscow for his first bi-lateral meeting with his Russian counterpart, President Dmitry Medvedev. The visit occurs at a time of complexity in the U.S.-Russian relationship. Thanks to a unique blend of circumstances, Mr. Obama has the opportunity to change the dialogue with Russia to advance long term goals for America.

Fifteen years ago, Washington believed Russia was on the path to becoming a democracy. Unfortunately, it hasn't evolved that way-Freedom House recently wrote that Russia is "a facade of democracy." This anti-democratic slide became a major problem, earning stern but diplomatically tone deaf rebukes from the Bush administration.

The democratic deconstruction was facilitated in large part by Russia's economic boom, fueled by rocketing oil prices between 2000 and mid-2008. At this moment of petro-hubris, President Vladimir Putin chose to confront the West, asserting that American dominance prevented Russia from regaining its lost international status. This aggressive attitude was on brazen display as Russian tanks rolled towards Tbilisi last August and Moscow repeatedly moved to control Europe's gas supply for political aims.

Despite this turbulent recent history, the U.S. and Russia have mutual security and economic interests that should be advanced immediately. While the advancement of democracy and human rights in Russia should remain an American priority, this objective will require time and patience. In short, it's this balancing of near-term cooperation and nudges toward longer-term liberalization that constitutes the essential compromise of American policy shifts toward Russia.

Seen in this light, the July meeting comes at an opportune moment: Weakened by the lower price of oil and in need of international capital, Russia may be more open to cooperation. Furthermore, President Medvedev himself is cause for guarded optimism-though he is hardly a Western liberal, he tilts more in that direction than KGB alum and current Prime Minister Putin.

President Obama should jump at the opportunity to foster cooperation with Russia-and lay the groundwork for greater freedom within it. Here's how, in three steps:

Recognize that the U.S. and Russia have shared interests, and that those interests are increasingly urgent. Think for a moment about America's most vital national security priorities: halting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and nuclear arms; combating Islamist terrorism; monitoring the ambitions of a rising China. These are Russia's priorities, too, and the Obama administration should seek closer ties with Moscow on all of these crucial fronts.

But to achieve these aims, Mr. Obama needs to build trust by accommodating Russian concerns in other areas. Though the United States should never place relations with Russia ahead of its own interests, in practice, this would mean adopting a "go slow" approach to NATO expansion and missile defense in Central Europe, exploring ways to integrate Russia into the latter.

Declare an end - finally - to the Cold War. While the United States and Russia have deep and serious differences on a range of issues, the countries are no longer global rivals.

Nuclear weapons are an obvious starting point. In Prague this past April, President Obama laid out a vision of a world free of nuclear weapons. Since the U.S. would never disarm unilaterally, it needs Russian cooperation. While negotiations of the size of arsenals will come later, a good confidence-building measure is to take our nuclear weapons off "hair trigger alert," a Cold War holdover.

In a similar spirit, President Obama can show America's goodwill by revoking the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, designed to encourage free emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union. While laudable and necessary in its day, the measure is a constant irritation in Russian-American relations.

Don't give up on Russian democracy. The watchword of the Moscow meetings should be cooperation, not confrontation. It's a time for gradually building ties, not for righteous lectures to a proud nation whose own people often seem quite ambivalent about the merits of democracy.

Nonetheless, the U.S. should take measured but firm positions-coupled with deliberate, cool-headed rhetoric-that support gradual development of democratic institutions in Russia. Across Russia, brave individuals are calling for greater accountability and transparency in government. They deserve an American advocate. You never quite know what opportunities may arise, but the U.S. should be watchful to encourage greater openness and respect for human rights within Russia.

Russia has a chance to enjoy a productive long-term relationship with America. President Obama, for his part, has signaled a desire to seek pragmatic solutions to international problems while standing for American values; this prescription lights the way.

Joshua A. Tucker is an Associate Professor of Politics at New York University. Jim Arkedis is the Director of the National Security Project of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) in Washington, D.C.
 

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From Times Online June 30, 2009

Can Brown the builder fix it? No, he can’t
Labour has spent 12 years constructing Britain’s future but nothing has gone up – and we don’t have a quote for the costs
Rachel Sylvester

In 1997, Tony Blair promised it would be “New Labour, New Life for Britain”. By 2001 the party was offering to fulfil “Britain’s Great Potential”. In 2005, it was “Britain: Forward not Back”. Yesterday Gordon Brown published “Building Britain’s Future”.

If it sounded familiar, that’s because it was. It was a relaunch made up of rehashed policy announcements and repackaged spending commitments, less a national plan than a national repeat. More affordable housing, health checks, one-to-one tuition, docking benefits, Lords reform — these are all things that have been promised for months, in some cases years, by the Government. It is only three months since the last relaunch, a “strategic plan” called “Building Britain’s Future”. Clearly not much building has gone on since then.

“Our most enduring reforms have come when we are boldest,” the Prime Minister wrote in the foreword — a deliberate echo, perhaps, of his predecessor’s declaration that “we are at our best when at our boldest”, which Mr Brown countered at the time with the phrase “at our best when Labour”. The reality is, however, markedly less courageous than the rhetoric.

There was an eye-catching initiative designed to appeal to BNP voters — the promise to give priority to local people for council housing — but like Mr Blair’s plan to march yobs to cash machines it is far from clear how it will work. The switch from targets to entitlements is more about presentation than substance: it is hard to see how it can make much difference to exam results or waiting lists. It’s also unenforceable, unless ministers plan to allow every parent and patient to sue if they are unhappy with the service they get.

BACKGROUND
Mandelson may delay Royal Mail sale plan
This ipsy-dipsy quango won’t save democracy
Britannia shrivels under Brown
Brown ally tipped to be European Commissioner

The problem is that Labour has already spent 12 years on this construction project and the voters are getting sick of the number of tea breaks. It’s not that nothing has been built so far — there have been real improvements in primary schools and the NHS. But if this building firm wants to be rehired it needs some attractive new plans — a loft conversion, say, or a conservatory — it can’t just offer to repaint the walls. The Government seems to have run out of money as well as ideas. Even the current refurbishment is, as Lord Mandelson has now confirmed, uncosted. And everyone knows you don’t hire builders without a written quotation, particularly when money is tight.

Privately, many ministers are in despair. “There is nothing there,” says one. “We’re going to be out of power for years.” One of Mr Brown’s longest-standing supporters in the Cabinet admitted to a colleague recently that he had made a mistake. “I knew Gordon’s weaknesses but I thought they would be lessened by becoming Prime Minister, and that his strengths would increase,” he told his fellow minister. “I was wrong.”

Mr Brown is embarking on a national tour, by train, to try to persuade the voters that he is still the best Fat Controller. But he is in danger of looking like John Major, extolling the virtues of the cones hotline, as he pushed peas around his plate in a Little Chef. Cabinet ministers are being sent out to sell the message, but it is unclear what the message is. The enthusiasm for public service reform is undermined because the part-privatisation of the Royal Mail — the most high-profile example — is being shelved to avoid angering the Left.

The Prime Minister’s promise to make schools and hospitals more customer-driven is at odds with his declaration, as Chancellor, that “in health the consumer cannot be sovereign”. The pledge to give power to individuals means nothing unless they also have control over the money so they can choose a different school or hospital. “It’s dressed up in the language of empowerment but it’s nothing of the sort,” says a former Cabinet minister. “Yet again it’s Government by focus group, a hotch-potch of policies with no unifying theme.”

The voters would be confused if they were listening, but the truth is that most have switched off. Before the 2005 election, the pollster Philip Gould told party strategists that even though Labour was still scoring a few goals, nobody would notice because the crowd had gone home. Now the erstwhile fans are not just absent, they are angry. It will take more than a bit of constitutional reform and carbon capture to get them to listen. A Cabinet minister, who is loyal to Mr Brown, says: “It’s a bit like when a husband has an affair. It’s not enough for him to buy his wife a bunch of flowers; he has to really prove that he’s changed.” The Prime Minister is proffering some droopy carnations from the local garage but shows little sign of reforming his habit of fiddling with figures.

The battlelines are being drawn for the next election and it is increasingly clear that Labour intends to fight on a platform of fear, not hope. Already it is fuelling the fear of Conservative spending cuts, executed by “Mr Ten Per Cent”, fear that the “nasty party” still lurks behind David Cameron, fear of Tory toffs and job losses and negative equity. To this can be added fear of immigrants who jump the housing queue and welfare “scroungers”.

In private, Mr Brown’s strategists are clear about their intentions — the next election should, they say, be timed just as the economy is beginning to turn around, but before the recession is over so that people are still sufficiently afraid to take a risk with an untested leader. They cite with admiration the “Labour tax bombshell” campaign that secured victory for the Tories in 1992. “It wasn’t true but that didn’t matter,” one minister told me, “it made voters too worried to support Labour.”

The next election campaign is going to be a cynical and dirty fight. Now it is clear why: the party has no really substantial positive plans for the future. In his inauguration speech Barack Obama said: “We have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over discord.” Mr Brown is clinging to fear and dividing lines because he has still not found a message of hope.
 

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From The Times
June 30, 2009

Russia stokes tensions with Georgia as troops gather near border
Tony Halpin in Moscow

Russia was accused of stoking tensions with Georgia yesterday as it mounted a huge military exercise, in an ominous echo of last summer’s war. Thousands of troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles began the “Caucasus 2009” manoeuvres across southern Russia, close to the border with Georgia.

Soldiers based in the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were also taking part, as well as elements of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the air force and the elite airborne troops.

Lieutenant-Colonel Andrei Bobrun, a Russian military spokesman, said: “The aim of the exercises is to establish the state of battle readiness and troop mobilisation deployed in Russia’s southwest region.” The military held similar drills before the war between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia last August. The Kremlin later defied international pressure and recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

The latest war games are Russia’s largest since the conflict and are being overseen directly by General Nikolai Makarov, the Chief of General Staff. The Defence Ministry said that 8,500 troops, 200 tanks, 450 armoured vehicles and 250 artillery pieces were involved in the exercises, which last until July 6, the day on which President Obama is due to arrive in Moscow on his first official visit to Russia.

Georgia accused Moscow of “playing with fire” by staging the event so close to the conflict zone. Alexander Nalbandov, the Deputy Foreign Minister, said: “This is aimed at further increasing tensions in the region.”

Some are fearful that the exercises are a prelude to fresh hostilities with the aim of entering the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, and toppling President Saakashvili. Andrei Illarionov, a former Kremlin adviser to Vladimir Putin, said that Russia may take action shortly after Mr Obama’s visit and claim that the United States was tacitly accepting its decision.

“The main goal is to turn Georgia into something like porridge from a political, military and ethnic point of view,” he told reporters. “Most important is the destruction of the political stability of Georgia.”

The Kremlin loathes Mr Saakashvili and is determined to wreck his drive to pull Georgia out of Russia’s orbit by gaining membership of Nato and the European Union. President Medvedev has called his Georgian counterpart a “political corpse” and says that he will never meet him.

Pavel Felgengauer, a military analyst who predicted last year’s conflict, also said in a new book, The Guns of August 2008, that powerful forces in the Kremlin regarded Georgia as unfinished business. He wrote: “The Russian troops did not go to Tbilisi in August 2008 but this does not imply that they will never do so.” He noted that overstretched supply lines halted the Russian advance last year. This year, Russia had already set up forward bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that were capable of supplying an invasion force.

The Russian Ambassador to Nato yesterday threatened Georgia with the loss of more territory, a day after the alliance resumed military ties with Russia, frozen since the war. Dmitri Rogozin told Georgia to “abstain from military operations” against South Ossetia and Abkhazia, adding: “Each time Georgia takes this step, it runs the risk of shrinking in size.”
 

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TOP ARTICLE | Games Neighbours Play
29 Jun 2009, 0000 hrs IST, G PARTHASARATHY


Dwelling on the prospects for Sino-Indian relations just after his meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at Yekaterinburg, on the sidelines of the BRIC summit of emerging world economies, Chinese president Hu Jintao said: "Both sides should make steady progress in pushing for dialogue and cooperation." The two Asian neighbours have cooperated closely in international forums on crucial economic issues like global economic recovery and the restructuring of international financial institutions. India and China have made common cause on vital issues of climate change, indicating that while they share a common interest with the developed world in arresting global warming, they would not succumb to pressures that would limit their common quest for economic development.

Sino-Indian cooperation on such issues has, however, been overshadowed by some disturbing policies adopted by China in recent days. Quite evidently bolstered by US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's comments that US-China relations are the most important bilateral relationship in the 21st century and by a realisation that the US needs its cooperation to revive its crisis-ridden economy, China has become more assertive in recent days in flexing its muscles across the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. It has overridden the concerns of its neighbours on its territorial claims in the South China Seas by extending its maritime boundaries with Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines unilaterally.

This has been combined with a continuing barrage against India, not only denigrating India's economic development and its approach to neighbours like Pakistan, but also issuing not too thinly veiled warnings about its territorial claims to Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers to as "Southern Tibet".

The policy of denigrating India picked up steam after the 26/11 terrorist carnage in Mumbai. Government-controlled media organisations in mainland China and Hong Kong launched an anti-India barrage claiming that "the Indian government's eagerness to declare the attacks were carried out by foreign forces was an attempt to cover up internal contradictions". The official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, the People's Daily, proclaimed on December 2 that the attack was "a major blow to India's big power ambitions". More recently on June 19, it claimed that the "mindset" of people in India towards China is one of "awe, vexation, envy and jealousy".

What has raised concerns in New Delhi is that, as China now displays its military might openly and calls on the commander of the US Pacific Fleet to recognise the Indian Ocean as a Chinese sphere of influence to be managed by Chinese nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers (a suggestion the Americans rejected), we are also witnessing growing aggressiveness in Chinese claims to the entire territory of Arunachal Pradesh. This is a far cry from China's position in 2005, when it implicitly agreed that in resolving the border issue, the status of populated areas on both sides of the line of control would remain unchanged. Just after the Mumbai attack, a publication in a Chinese government-linked think tank noted, even before Pakistan claimed that India was manifesting aggressive intentions, that "China can support Pakistan in the event of a war". Post-Mumbai, China has blocked attempts in the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Maulana Masood Azhar, head of the Jaish-e-Mohammed.

Matters came to a head when China formally blocked the passage of a $2.9 billion assistance programme for India, from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), merely because it contained provisions for aid to developmental projects in "Southern Tibet". New Delhi reacted strongly and China stood isolated when every other ADB member including Pakistan rejected its objections and endorsed the assistance package for India. The Americans appear to have signalled that they do not favour Chinese aggressiveness in putting forward claims to Arunachal Pradesh. And Pakistan realised that backing the Chinese line could result in the end of international developmental assistance for projects in PoK. What now appears clear is that while the US and its European partners would seek Chinese participation and support in dealing with international issues, they will not endorse manifestations of Chinese aggressiveness.

India has complemented its diplomatic success on Arunachal Pradesh in the ADB by deciding to bolster its defence preparedness in the state, with the decision to enhance military deployment with two additional mountain divisions and supporting artillery. New Delhi has also boosted its air power with the induction of frontline SU 30 aircraft into the north-east.

But both our service officers and defence scientists would be well-advised to remember that mature nations do not speak strongly or publicly about military deployments on disputed borders. Statements and leaks to the press about troop and air power deployments in Arunachal, or about development of China-specific Agni 3 and Agni 5 missiles, are uncalled for and appear to forget the old adage that actions speak louder than words. There are areas where we can and should cooperate with China on the global stage. At the same time, proactive diplomacy can deal with the strategic challenges that China poses in our Indian Ocean neighbourhood.

The writer is a former high commissioner to Pakistan.
 

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Hopes for nuclear breakthrough on Obama Moscow trip
Wed Jul 1, 2009 6:16pm EDT
By Michael Stott

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Hopes are rising on both sides that President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow next week will produce a breakthrough in talks on cutting U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons and on helping Washington in Afghanistan.

Officially, neither side has made an announcement but diplomats believe Obama will agree with President Dmitry Medvedev on the outline of a deal to reduce the stocks of deployed nuclear warheads to below 1,700 on each side.

"We are confident that we will secure an agreement committing both sides to cutting warheads to fewer than 1,700," one person close to the talks said.

Obama and Medvedev gave the go-ahead to talks on a new strategic arms treaty to replace START-1, which expires on December 5, when they met for the first time in London in April.

Sergei Ryabkov, a Russian deputy foreign minister, said on Tuesday that progress in the arms talks had been "beyond what was expected when we started."

By December, Ryabkov told the state-run RIA news agency, he expected a "solid document with a range of measures for testing and exchange of information...and real reductions in strategic offensive weapons."

Estimates of current nuclear stockpiles differ but according to the U.S.-based Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the start of 2009 the United States had around 2,200 operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads and Russia around 2,790.

Washington is also optimistic of securing Moscow's agreement to ship lethal military supplies to its troops in Afghanistan across Russian territory -- an urgent priority as existing supply lines across Pakistan become less safe.

Diplomats say the two agreements are likely to be the main fruits of Obama's July 6-8 trip to Russia and will be touted as evidence that both sides want to "press the reset button" -- to use Washington's phrase -- on their rocky relations of recent years.

Relations between Russia and the United States hit their lowest point since the end of the Cold War last summer over a war in U.S. ally and former Soviet republic Georgia.

Russia's decision to send troops and amour deep into neighboring Georgia in response to Tbilisi's attack on a Russian-supported rebel region angered Washington and led to a suspension of NATO cooperation with Moscow -- now lifted.

Both sides are now trying to put that behind them to make progress on nuclear disarmament and other areas -- such as strengthening efforts to halt the spread of nuclear weapons -- where they see a chance of relatively quick agreement.

HOST OF DIFFERENCES PERSIST

But analysts warn that any prospective deals could yet be torpedoed by a host of differences between Moscow and Washington.

The two sides are far apart on U.S. plans to station an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic, something Russia says threatens its security.

In Washington, Michael McFaul, Obama's adviser on Russia, said the president would make clear that Washington sees enhanced missile defense as protection against "real threats" like Iran, not against Russia, and he would seek Moscow's cooperation in the program.

Moscow also dislikes U.S. aspirations to bring more former Soviet republics into NATO, an alliance Russia views as a hostile Cold War relic.

Russia's ruling elite still smarts at what it sees as U.S. moves to take advantage of its weakness in the chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and is determined to bargain hard, despite a deep economic recession and continued problems in equipping and training its military.

"The biggest deliverable from the summit will be an agreement on the parameters of a START treaty," said Dmitry Trenin, head of the Moscow Carnegie Center think-tank, during an online conference ahead of Obama's visit.

"But START is not a big achievement. It will regulate adversarial relations but on its own it will not bring U.S.-Russia relations to a new level."

Moscow and Washington have already agreed in a 2002 treaty to cut their nuclear arsenals to 1,700-2,200 deployed nuclear warheads by 2012, so any further reduction agreed in principle next week is likely to be relatively small.

Asked if leaders would agree at the Moscow summit to cuts to as low as 1,500 warheads each, McFaul said it would be "way too early" to announce specific levels.

"My guess is we'll get around to concrete numbers right toward the end of negotiating a treaty," he told reporters in Washington.

Underlying all the talking next week will also be a gulf in expectations and attitudes between a popular U.S. administration with a big electoral mandate and a fearful, insular Kremlin leadership who see threats all around them.

(Additional reporting by Matt Spetalnick, editing by Vicki Allen)


© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved
 

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July 2, 2009
Obama's Trip to Russia
By Cathy Young

As Barack Obama's trip to Moscow next week draws near, there is much talk of a fresh start -- or, as Vice President Joseph Biden put it earlier this year, "pushing the reset button" -- between the United States and Russia. But "reset" to what? A partnership based on shared democratic values, as many hoped in the 1990s? A pragmatic collaboration based on common interests such as combating terrorism, with issues of freedom and human rights sidelined? There are strong voices arguing for each viewpoint. But for the foreseeable future, neither approach is likely to yield much progress in relations with Russia, since both arguments reflect a high degree of wishful thinking.

This is not a left-versus-right issue. The pragmatic "realists" include left-of-center liberals and conservatives of the Nixonian and old-school isolationist kind; the "idealists" who champion the battered cause of Russian democracy are found across the political spectrum.

To realist pundits such as New America Foundation fellow and National Interest columnist Anatol Lieven, the democracy promoters are dangerously naïve, their zeal easily translating into reckless interventionism -- or, at least, into a Cold War mindset needlessly hostile to the Kremlin. The Russian neo-authoritarianism that emerged under Vladimir Putin, realists argue, is not Soviet communism: it is not based on a totalitarian ideology that confronts the West with a rival political and economic system and predicts its own global victory. It is simply a repressive regime, the kind we have befriended before.

But, the inglorious record of such "friendships" aside, there is a major difference between Putin's Russia and Pinochet's Chile or modern-day Saudi Arabia: "classic" authoritarian regimes do not see themselves as our global rivals.

While Russia under Putin (and his not-quite-elected successor, Dmitry Medvedev) eschews communism, it does have a semi-formal state ideology revolving around its self-image as a "great power." Realists such as Lieven and former Bush administration official Thomas Graham, who penned a recent Century Foundation report on U.S.-Russian relations, acknowledge this. Moreover, they admit that Moscow's "great power" ambitions dictate rivalry with the West and efforts to "constrain" the U.S. as well as dominate neighboring states on former Soviet turf. Yet they maintain that such nationalism can somehow be channeled into healthy avenues of cooperation with the U.S. and even democracy-building at home. Who's naïve now?

The realists have some valid points: for instance, that Russia has legitimate interests not always identical to American ones. But they often forget that those interests may not be identical to those of the current Kremlin clique, either. Thus, after years of an oil windfall, Russia's infrastructure is still a disaster zone while Putin and his cronies in the oil and gas industry have enriched themselves.

Abroad, Moscow's clumsy bullying has pushed away many allies, most recently Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenka, and dramatically diminished its real influence on "post-Soviet space." Last year's Georgia adventure and the acquisition of two money-draining, volatile protectorates, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in an already unstable region probably brought Russia no benefits except an ego boost. The Kremlin's attempts to use energy resources as a weapon have given Europe powerful incentives to seek alternative suppliers. Indeed, another recent "realist" brief for a new détente -- the report of the Commission on U.S. Policy Toward Russia, co-chaired by former senators Gary Hart and Chuck Hagel -- admits that some of Moscow's behavior casts doubt on how "rational and competent" its leadership is.

The saga of the Manas Air Force base in Kyrgyzstan illustrates both the erratic nature of Russia's foreign policy and its unreliability as a partner. In February, Russia used a lucrative aid package as a bribe to get the Kyrgyz government to expel the base - essential to U.S. operations in Afghanistan - for no ostensible reason except to show up the Americans. Now, after an even better deal with the U.S., Kyrgyzstan is keeping the base (on slightly different terms). While the Kremlin has expressed approval, this is likely a face-saving gesture after being double-crossed on an informal, unenforceable agreement.

Pragmatic cooperation with such a regime is clearly not very realistic. Unfortunately, at present, the same can be said of democracy promotion efforts.

A few days ago, Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said that Obama should shore up Medvedev against Putin to empower the Russian president to embark on liberal reforms. The trouble is, the authenticity Medvedev's liberalism is still a big question mark.

In foreign policy, Medvedev certainly hasn't departed from Putin's aggressive stance. At home, he shows far more respect than his mentor for liberal ideas and institutions, such as a free press and human rights groups -- but it's hard to tell whether that means anything more than lip service. In April, Medvedev raised eyebrows by giving an interview to Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper harshly critical of the government; yet his answers amounted to a whitewash of Russia's undemocratic practices. Despite a few improvements -- for instance, legal reform easing the bureaucratic hurdles faced by non-governmental organizations -- the harassment of opposition activists has continued.

Nor is there a true grass-roots base for a liberal society in Russia today. Majorities of Russians may tell pollsters that they want more democracy and that they consider freedom of the press important, but surveys also show that the lack of political freedoms and rights is not a high priority for most. After decades of communist dictatorship followed by years of turmoil, apathy and cynicism reign.

What can, and should, Obama do in this situation? On the government-to-government level, the results of the summit will probably be limited to a new arms control treaty -- an almost meaningless ritual in this age of worries about North Korean and Iranian nukes. Obama's speech in Moscow will probably strike a fine balance between talk of democratic values and talk of respect for Russian tradition; one also hopes that it will include a strong message of American support for the sovereignty of Russia's neighbors. His planned meeting with Russian human rights groups will send a positive signal as well.

In the long term, change in Russia has to come from within. The best thing an American administration can do is not prop up a regime that impedes such change, and not expect too much from any partnership with an authoritarian regime in the Kremlin.

Cathy Young writes a weekly column for RealClearPolitics and is also a contributing editor at Reason magazine. She blogs at http://cathyyoung.wordpress.com/. She can be reached at cyoung@realclearpolitics.com
 

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Thursday, July 2, 2009

Don't bait the Russian bear

By BRAHMA CHELLANEY

U.S. President Barack Obama's Moscow visit offers a historic opportunity to avert a new Cold War by establishing a more stable and cooperative relationship between the West and Russia.

Obama has reiterated his "commitment to a more substantive relationship with Russia." This needs to translate into policy moves symbolizing new, broad engagement.

Three important facts about Russia stand out. One, Russia has gradually become a more assertive power after stemming its precipitous decline and drift of the 1990s. Two, it now plays the Great Game on energy. Competition over control of hydrocarbon resources was a defining feature of the Cold War and remains an important driver of contemporary geopolitics, as manifest from the American occupation of Iraq and U.S. military bases or strategic tie-ups stretching across the oil-rich Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia.

Three, Russian democracy has moved toward greater centralized control to bring order and direction to the state. During Vladimir Putin's presidency, government control was extended to large swaths of the economy and the political opposition was systematically emasculated.

Such centralization, though, is no different than in, say, Singapore and Malaysia, including the domination of one political party, the absence of diversified media, limits on public demonstrations and the writ of security services. But in contrast to Russia, Singapore and Malaysia have insulated themselves from U.S. criticism by willingly serving Western interests. When did you last hear official American criticism of Singapore's egregious political practices?

Yet Russia faces a rising tide of Western censure for gradually sliding toward autocratic control at home. Actually, ideological baggage, not dispassionate strategic deliberation, tends to often color U.S. and European discourse on Russia.

Another reason is Russia's geographical presence in Europe, the "mother" of both the Russian and U.S. civilizations. There is thus a greater propensity to hold Russia to European standards, unlike, say, China. Also, Russia was considered a more plausible candidate for democratic reform than China, now the world's largest, oldest and strongest autocracy. Little surprise Russia's greater centralization evokes fervent Western reaction.

Today's Russia, however, bears little resemblance to the Soviet Union. Life for the average Russian is freer and there is no Soviet-style shortage of consumer goods. There are also no online censors regulating Internet content as in China, and criticism of the Russian government is, by and large, tolerated, especially if it does not threaten the position of those in power.

While China seeks to project power in distant lands, including Africa and Latin America, Russia wishes to project power in its own neighborhood, or what it calls its "Far Abroad," including Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, Central Asia and the Caucuses. Given its geopolitical focus on states in its vicinity, not on the "Far Abroad," Russia, with its size and clout, is able to bring pressure and intimidation to bear on such adjacent states. And given its own relative stability, Russia is able to exploit political instability in neighboring states.

But what now looks like a resurgent power faces major demographic and economic challenges to build and sustain great-power capacity over the long run.

Demographically, Russia is even in danger of losing its Slavic identity and becoming a Muslim-majority state in the decades ahead, unless government incentives succeed in encouraging Russian women to have more children. The average age of death of a Russian male has fallen to 58.9 years — nearly two decades below an American. While Japan faces a population decline, Russia confronts depopulation.

Economically, the oil-price crash has come as a warning to Russia against being a largely petro-state.

In fact, Moscow's economic fortunes for long have been tied too heavily to oil — a commodity with volatile prices. In 1980, the Soviet Union overtook Saudi Arabia as the biggest oil producer. But oil prices began to decline, plummeting to $9 a barrel in mid-1986. U.S. intelligence, failing to read the significance of this, continued to claim Moscow was engaged in massive military modernization. During the Putin presidency, rising oil prices played a key role in Russian economic revival.

The higher the oil prices, the less the pressure there is on Russia to restructure and diversify its economy. The present low prices thus offer an opportunity to Moscow to reform.

Still, it should not be forgotten that Russia is the world's wealthiest country in natural resources — from fertile farmlands and metals, to gold and timber. It sits on colossal hydrocarbon reserves. It also remains a nuclear and missile superpower. Indeed, to compensate for the erosion in its conventional-military capabilities, it has increasingly relied on its large nuclear arsenal, which it is ambitiously modernizing.

Whatever its future, the big question is: What is the right international approach toward a resurgent Russia? Here two aspects need to be borne in mind.

First, Russia geopolitically is the most important "swing" state in the world today. Its geopolitical swing worth more than China's or India's. While China is inextricably tied to the U.S. economy and India's geopolitical direction is clearly set toward closer economic and political engagement with the West — even as New Delhi retains its strategic autonomy — Russia is a wild card. A wrong policy course on Russia by the West would not only prove counterproductive to Western interests, but also affect international peace and security. It would push Moscow inexorably in the wrong direction, creating a new East-West divide.

Second, there are some useful lessons applicable to Russia that the West can draw on how it has dealt with another rising power. China has come a long way since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre of prodemocracy demonstrators. What it has achieved in the last generation in terms of economic modernization and the opening of minds is extraordinary. That owes a lot to the West's decision not to sustain trade sanctions after Tiananmen Square but instead to integrate China into global institutions.

That the choice made was wise can be seen from the baneful impact of the opposite decision taken on Burma after 1988 — to pursue a punitive approach relying on sanctions. Had the Burma-type approach been applied against China, the result would not only have been a less-prosperous and less-open China, but also a more-paranoid and possibly destabilizing China. The obvious lesson is that engagement and integration are better than sanctions and isolation.

Today, with a new chill setting in on relations between the West and Russia, that lesson is in danger of getting lost. Russia's 16-year effort to join the World Trade Organization has still to bear fruit, even as Moscow is said to be in the last phase of negotiations, and the U.S.- Russian nuclear deal remains on hold in Washington.

Little thought has been given to how the West lost Russia, which during its period of decline eagerly sought to cozy up to the U.S. and Europe, only to get the cold shoulder from Washington. And even as NATO is being expanded right up to Russia's front yard and after the U.S. led the action in engineering Kosovo's February 2008 self-proclamation of independence, attention has focused since last August on Moscow's misguided, five-day military intervention in Georgia and its recognition of the self-declaration of independence by South Ossetia and Abkhazia — actions that some have tried to portray as the 21st century's first forcible changing of borders.

But having sponsored Kosovo's self- proclamation of independence, the U.S. and some of its allies awkwardly opposed the same right of self-determination for the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Can the legitimacy of a self-declaration of independence depend on which great power sponsors that action?

The world cannot afford a new Cold War, which is what constant baiting of the Russian bear will bring. Fortunately, there are some positive signs. Seeking to heel the rift triggered by the yearlong developments over Georgia, the U.S. and Russia are resuming full military cooperation and have reopened negotiations on nuclear arms control, with the talks centered on quickly establishing a successor to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, whose 15-year term runs out Dec. 5. Also, the U.S. is going slow on missile-defense deployments in Eastern Europe and there is a de facto postponement of NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia.

Russia, for its part, has continued to provide critical logistic assistance to the U.S. and NATO military operations in Afghanistan. As part of what Obama has called a "reset" of the bilateral relationship, a U.S.-Russia joint commission headed by Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is being established, along with several sub-commissions. This is an improvement on the 1993 commission established at the level of No. 2s, Vice President Al Gore and Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.

To be sure, fundamental differences between Washington and Moscow persist on some major international and regional issues — from U.S. opposition to the Russian idea for an international treaty to outlaw cyberspace attacks along the lines of the Chemical Weapons Convention to the continuing discord over Georgia spurring rival military maneuvers in the Caucasus region.

The increasingly authoritarian Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, blamed by some international analysts for provoking last year's war through a military strike on South Ossetia that killed Russian peacekeepers and civilians, has become for Moscow what Cuba's then leader Fidel Castro was for Washington — the villain-in-chief.

The key issue is whether the U.S. and Russia will rise above their differences and seize the new opportunity to redefine their relationship before it becomes too late. For Russia, the challenge is to engage a skeptical West more deeply. It also needs to increase its economic footprint in Asia, where its presence is largely military. For the U.S., the challenge is to pursue new geopolitics of engagement with Moscow.

Brahma Chellaney is professor of strategic studies at the privately funded Center for Policy Research in New Delhi. This article is based on the author's presentation at the International Press Institute's recent world congress in Helsinki.
 

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Russia must re-focus with post-imperial eyes
By Zbigniew Brzezinski

Published: July 1 2009 20:04 | Last updated: July 1 2009 20:04

President Barack Obama should have three central goals in mind when he meets Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin next week: first, to advance US-Russian co-operation in areas where our interests coincide; second, to emphasise the mutual benefits in handling disagreements between the two countries within internationally respected “rules of the game”; and third, to help shape a geopolitical context in which Russia becomes increasingly conscious of its own interest in eventually becoming a genuinely post-imperial partner of the Euro-Atlantic community.

Of the three, the first is the easiest; the second is sensitive but needs to be faced, lest there be repetitions of what happened last August, when Russian troops invaded Georgia ; and the third can only be sought indirectly – but the effort has to be strategically deliberate. In any case, it is evident that both countries would benefit from better relations. Fortunately, the financial crisis has made the Russian elite aware that, for the first time in its history, Russia’s well-being depends on the well-being of the outside world and especially of America. That reality of inter-dependence creates a felicitous setting for the summit.

Moreover, on some important issues collaboration is not only possible, but mutually beneficial. That is especially true with reciprocal reductions in nuclear weaponry, a compromise on US plans for an anti-ballistic-missile shield and joint efforts to enhance the nuclear non-proliferation treaty , among other security arrangements.

Unfortunately, on Iran, it is uncertain that the conventional wisdom – which asserts that Russia genuinely wants to be helpful – is correct. To the Russian leadership, the two long-term challenges to its power come from the US and China. Both countries would suffer grievously, while Russia would greatly benefit, if a US-Iranian crisis triggered a surge in energy prices. Hence Russian willingness to be helpful may be more formal than real.

Nor should one ignore the reality that there are serious – though not war-threatening – geopolitical conflicts of interest between the US and the Russian Federation. The bottom line is that Mr Putin resents and wants in some fashion to reverse the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Gaining control over Ukraine would restore in effect an imperial Russia, with the potential to ignite conflicts in Central Europe. Subduing Georgia would cut the west’s vital energy connection (the Baku-Çeyhan pipeline) to the Caspian Sea and to Central Asia. Azerbaijan then would have no choice but to submit to Moscow’s control.

Indeed, in the summit meetings, Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev will be looking for signs that the new US administration disowns the charters on partnership with Ukraine and Georgia signed by former President George W. Bush. Even an unintentional signal to that effect would be seen as a green light for more muscular Russian actions against these two countries.

Hence a frank discussion is needed to lay down some mutually accepted “rules of the game”. The US can indicate that Nato membership is not imminent for either country, but that the US and Russia have to respect Ukraine’s or Georgia’s right to make that choice. In the meantime, Russia must understand that the use of force or promotion of ethnic conflicts to destabilise Ukraine or Georgia would poison American-Russian relations.

Clarity on these matters, achieved through respectful but realistic discussions, would reduce the risks of Russia trying to restore an imperial system in the space previously occupied by the Tsarist empire and then the Soviet Union. Gradual consolidation of the existing national pluralism in that space would accelerate the fading of historically futile imperial ambitions.

Using the Moscow visit to identify America’s vision of the future with Russia’s own but still partially repressed democratic aspirations should be part of the summit ritual. Presumably there will be some chance to convey that message, either through a speech or gesture to honour the many (and currently in Russia ignored) victims of Leninism-Stalinism. That would also help shape a political context for Russia’s evolution towards a genuine partnership with the world of democracy.

A final point: the previous US administration favoured trivial personalisation of its relationship with Russia (such as references to Mr Putin’s “eyes” or “soul”) and highly over-stated claims of breakthroughs (“the best relationship ever” between the two countries). A more serious strategic approach that produces Russia’s acceptance of its new post-imperial realities and encourages its democratic evolution is more likely to yield enduring results, while not unleashing unrealistic public expectations.

The writer was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. He is co-author with Brent Scowcroft of the recently published ‘America and the World’
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
 
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