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http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090515_intelligence_guidance_week_may_17_2009
Intelligence Guidance: Week of May 17, 2009
May 15, 2009 | 2149 GMT
TARIQ MAHMOOD/AFP/Getty Images
Pakistani army commandos inside a bunker in Buner district on May 12
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
Related Special Topic Page
* Weekly Updates
1. India’s elections: The results of India’s national elections, which concluded several weeks ago, are due to be released May 16. Early signs point to such a tight result that there could even be a hung parliament. It isn’t so much that the world was expecting a stable government to come out of this, but a government too weak would be unable to achieve anything in terms of security decision-making and would a tempting target for any Islamic militants looking to distract attention from Afghanistan and Pakistan. All we can do is wait for the results, and then monitor the protests and riots that typically follow any political development in India.
2. Pakistan’s military offensive in the Swat: The fighting in Swat has now been raging for three weeks as the government belatedly attempts to roll back the gains of the jihadists in the area. There are four things to watch for. First, watch closely for any sign that the conflict is spreading beyond the Swat region; the militants definitely have an interest in splitting the government’s attention. Second, watch the refugee flows; so far, the situation has not turned too atrocious, but disasters can occur when 1.3 million people are displaced. (Pakistani emergency services lack the resources of, for example, the Federal Emergency Management Agency.) Third, politics in Islamabad are holding together as the various factions all seem to realize that the unity of the Pakistani state is at risk, but more coherent states have devolved into dysfunctional sniping at more critical times. Finally, there is a possible silver lining for Pakistan. Should the insurgents actually decide to hold ground (not their usual pattern), the Pakistani military might actually be able to engage them with conventional tactics and smash them as a fighting force (until now they have fought a classic guerrilla-style campaign and denied the army the ability to engage them directly).
3. Brazil: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is traveling to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and China this coming week. STRATFOR does not put much credence in the concept of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) forming a bloc relationship. But we do pay very close attention to Brazil. Far from simply a commodities exporter, it boasts a robust industrial base, a stable financial sector and an energy supermajor that is both world-class and home-grown. What deals and relationships that Lula strikes with these three major regional powers (there is talk of a $10 billion financing deal for Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) in China, among other things) matter not because of the bilateral relationships, but because they involve Brazil. Luckily, the Brazilians are not known for having information vacuums among their senior leadership. It should be much easier to get information from Brasilia on this trip than from Riyadh, Beijing or Ankara.
4. The Japanese military: Something interesting is happening in Japan. Soon Japanese P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft operating out of Djibouti will begin patrols over Somali waters. Only a few years ago simply providing refueling assistance triggered torrid debates in Japan (and throughout East Asia) over the roll of Japan’s “pacifist” military. Now it will be flying missions — with the planes guarded by armed Japanese troops when not in use — half a world away. This is not standard Japanese behavior. That said, aside from being grossly out of character and thus meriting scrupulous attention, it makes perfect sense. Japan wants to break out of its shell, and there are a lot of navies to watch near Somalia these days.
5. Moldova’s elections: May 20 marks the date the parliament will select the country’s new president. Since the parliamentary elections were what triggered the last bout of unrest in April, it is likely that this will not go smoothly. Last time, Romanian intelligence helped stir things up. Also worthy of attention is anything that might be done by the Poles, Americans and Turks.
6. Turkey and Russia: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on May 16. While their ongoing talks of course focus on the Caucasus, STRATFOR is hearing rumors that bigger and more complex deals are in the works. It’s understandable that Russia would like Turkey to butt out of Moscow’s problems with the United States, but for that to happen, the Russians will have to offer quite a lot. This is starting to spread beyond the Caucasus, and our information-gathering effort needs to reflect that.
7. Taiwan and China: Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu may be going to China this coming week. This would be the highest-ranking member of Taiwan’s pro-independence party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to ever visit the mainland. Beijing would like to both erode the DPP from within and use the opposition-DPP against the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) (precisely what Beijing did with the KMT when the DPP held the presidency).
EURASIA
* May 16: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss the shifting political dynamic in the Caucasus region.
* May 17: Lithuania will hold presidential elections, with ex-European Commissioner Dalia Grybauskaite widely expected to win, raising the possibility of the country electing its first-ever female president.
* May 19: Russia and the United States will begin talks in Moscow on officially creating a new arms control treaty to replace the existing START treaty, which is due to expire in December.
* May 19: The foreign ministers of the Russia-NATO Council will meet in Brussels.
* May 19: Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to meet with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
* May 20: Moldova will hold presidential elections, only weeks after violent protests plagued the government of outgoing President Vladimir Voronin.
* May 20-21: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili will visit Azerbaijan to meet with the country’s leadership.
* May 21-22: An EU-Russia summit will be held in the Russian city of Khabarovsk.
* May 23: Germany will hold elections for the presidency (a largely symbolic post) on the same day that it celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Federal Republic of Germany.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
* May 14: The commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Timothy J. Keating will visit India to discuss security issues in South Asia related to the conflicts with the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While in New Delhi, Keating will meet with Indian navy chief Adm. Sureesh Mehta.
* May 14: Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse will be in Jordan to participate in the World Economic Forum on the Middle East Summit, which gathers lower and middle-income countries.
* May 15: Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari will visit France. Zardari has met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy for talks on bilateral relations and on regional and international issues, and is expected to meet with other top French leaders during the course of his stay.
* May 15-18: Turkish President Abdullah Gul will visit Syria with a delegation of Turkish ministers. Gul and al Assad are to discuss international and regional issues and bilateral relations. Accompanying Gul on the visit will be Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Agriculture and Rural Affairs Minister Mehmet Mehdi Eker, and Culture and Tourism Minister Ertugrul Gunay.
* May 16: A Hamas delegation led by Ayman Taha will begin the fifth round of inter-Palestinian reconciliation talks in Egypt. The fifth and latest round is to cover the issues of elections, the formation of a government and security forces.
* May 16: Results from parliamentary elections for India’s lower house are to be made public.
* May 16-17: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to visit Saudi Arabia. Da Silva is expected to meet with Saudi King Abdullah and discuss a free trade agreement between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Mercosur, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
* May 17: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will resign. Singh is expected to continue as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.
* May 18: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Washington on May 18 to hold talks with U.S. President Barack Obama.
EAST ASIA
* May 18-25: South Korea said it wants to meet with North Korea early next week to discuss a South Korean worker detained in the north, and a joint industrial project that has been troubled by tensions between the sides.
* May 18-25: Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu is likely to visit Beijing and Shanghai later this month, which would make her the highest incumbent official from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ever to visit China.
* May 20: South Korea and Australia have agreed to start talks on forging a free trade agreement. Trade minister Kim Jong-Hoon and his Australian counterpart Simon Crean will announce the start of negotiations during their meeting May 18 in Melbourne.
* May 20: Japan is scheduled to release a quarterly inflation report next week that is likely to signal the start of deflation in Japan.
* May 18-26: Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada ordered two P-3C surveillance planes to assist Japan’s two Maritime Self-Defense Forces destroyers patrolling off the coast of Somalia in their anti-piracy mission.
LATIN AMERICA
* May 16-22: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is making an international tour of Saudi Arabia, China and Turkey. His visit to Saudi Arabia is the first one ever made by a Brazilian head of state, and is scheduled for May 16-17, after which he will fly to China, where he will be accompanied by around 240 Brazilian industrialists. Lula is scheduled to have a working meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao on May 19. On the agenda is a financing deal for Brazilian state oil company Petrobras, reported to be in the range of $10 billion. Petrobras is also seeking to secure deep water oil contracts in China, which recently became Brazil’s top trade partner. Lula is scheduled to land in Turkey on May 21, and is set to meet with Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Prime Minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan and parliamentary leader Koksal Toptan.
* May 22: Venezuela is scheduled to complete its takeover of Banco Santander’s local affiliate, Banco de Venezuela, by May 22. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez did not disclose how much Venezuela would pay for the Spanish-owned bank, but Santander President Emilio Botin has expressed confidence that negotiations will go smoothly.
AFRICA
* May 15-20: United Nations Security Council/Africa: UNSC diplomats will travel to Ethiopia, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Liberia.
* May 19: Malawi: Malawi holds presidential and parliamentary elections.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090515_intelligence_guidance_week_may_17_2009
Intelligence Guidance: Week of May 17, 2009
May 15, 2009 | 2149 GMT
TARIQ MAHMOOD/AFP/Getty Images
Pakistani army commandos inside a bunker in Buner district on May 12
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
Related Special Topic Page
* Weekly Updates
1. India’s elections: The results of India’s national elections, which concluded several weeks ago, are due to be released May 16. Early signs point to such a tight result that there could even be a hung parliament. It isn’t so much that the world was expecting a stable government to come out of this, but a government too weak would be unable to achieve anything in terms of security decision-making and would a tempting target for any Islamic militants looking to distract attention from Afghanistan and Pakistan. All we can do is wait for the results, and then monitor the protests and riots that typically follow any political development in India.
2. Pakistan’s military offensive in the Swat: The fighting in Swat has now been raging for three weeks as the government belatedly attempts to roll back the gains of the jihadists in the area. There are four things to watch for. First, watch closely for any sign that the conflict is spreading beyond the Swat region; the militants definitely have an interest in splitting the government’s attention. Second, watch the refugee flows; so far, the situation has not turned too atrocious, but disasters can occur when 1.3 million people are displaced. (Pakistani emergency services lack the resources of, for example, the Federal Emergency Management Agency.) Third, politics in Islamabad are holding together as the various factions all seem to realize that the unity of the Pakistani state is at risk, but more coherent states have devolved into dysfunctional sniping at more critical times. Finally, there is a possible silver lining for Pakistan. Should the insurgents actually decide to hold ground (not their usual pattern), the Pakistani military might actually be able to engage them with conventional tactics and smash them as a fighting force (until now they have fought a classic guerrilla-style campaign and denied the army the ability to engage them directly).
3. Brazil: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is traveling to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and China this coming week. STRATFOR does not put much credence in the concept of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) forming a bloc relationship. But we do pay very close attention to Brazil. Far from simply a commodities exporter, it boasts a robust industrial base, a stable financial sector and an energy supermajor that is both world-class and home-grown. What deals and relationships that Lula strikes with these three major regional powers (there is talk of a $10 billion financing deal for Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) in China, among other things) matter not because of the bilateral relationships, but because they involve Brazil. Luckily, the Brazilians are not known for having information vacuums among their senior leadership. It should be much easier to get information from Brasilia on this trip than from Riyadh, Beijing or Ankara.
4. The Japanese military: Something interesting is happening in Japan. Soon Japanese P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft operating out of Djibouti will begin patrols over Somali waters. Only a few years ago simply providing refueling assistance triggered torrid debates in Japan (and throughout East Asia) over the roll of Japan’s “pacifist” military. Now it will be flying missions — with the planes guarded by armed Japanese troops when not in use — half a world away. This is not standard Japanese behavior. That said, aside from being grossly out of character and thus meriting scrupulous attention, it makes perfect sense. Japan wants to break out of its shell, and there are a lot of navies to watch near Somalia these days.
5. Moldova’s elections: May 20 marks the date the parliament will select the country’s new president. Since the parliamentary elections were what triggered the last bout of unrest in April, it is likely that this will not go smoothly. Last time, Romanian intelligence helped stir things up. Also worthy of attention is anything that might be done by the Poles, Americans and Turks.
6. Turkey and Russia: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on May 16. While their ongoing talks of course focus on the Caucasus, STRATFOR is hearing rumors that bigger and more complex deals are in the works. It’s understandable that Russia would like Turkey to butt out of Moscow’s problems with the United States, but for that to happen, the Russians will have to offer quite a lot. This is starting to spread beyond the Caucasus, and our information-gathering effort needs to reflect that.
7. Taiwan and China: Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu may be going to China this coming week. This would be the highest-ranking member of Taiwan’s pro-independence party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to ever visit the mainland. Beijing would like to both erode the DPP from within and use the opposition-DPP against the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) (precisely what Beijing did with the KMT when the DPP held the presidency).
EURASIA
* May 16: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at the Black Sea resort of Sochi to discuss the shifting political dynamic in the Caucasus region.
* May 17: Lithuania will hold presidential elections, with ex-European Commissioner Dalia Grybauskaite widely expected to win, raising the possibility of the country electing its first-ever female president.
* May 19: Russia and the United States will begin talks in Moscow on officially creating a new arms control treaty to replace the existing START treaty, which is due to expire in December.
* May 19: The foreign ministers of the Russia-NATO Council will meet in Brussels.
* May 19: Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to meet with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
* May 20: Moldova will hold presidential elections, only weeks after violent protests plagued the government of outgoing President Vladimir Voronin.
* May 20-21: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili will visit Azerbaijan to meet with the country’s leadership.
* May 21-22: An EU-Russia summit will be held in the Russian city of Khabarovsk.
* May 23: Germany will hold elections for the presidency (a largely symbolic post) on the same day that it celebrates the 60th anniversary of the Federal Republic of Germany.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
* May 14: The commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, Adm. Timothy J. Keating will visit India to discuss security issues in South Asia related to the conflicts with the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While in New Delhi, Keating will meet with Indian navy chief Adm. Sureesh Mehta.
* May 14: Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse will be in Jordan to participate in the World Economic Forum on the Middle East Summit, which gathers lower and middle-income countries.
* May 15: Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari will visit France. Zardari has met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy for talks on bilateral relations and on regional and international issues, and is expected to meet with other top French leaders during the course of his stay.
* May 15-18: Turkish President Abdullah Gul will visit Syria with a delegation of Turkish ministers. Gul and al Assad are to discuss international and regional issues and bilateral relations. Accompanying Gul on the visit will be Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Agriculture and Rural Affairs Minister Mehmet Mehdi Eker, and Culture and Tourism Minister Ertugrul Gunay.
* May 16: A Hamas delegation led by Ayman Taha will begin the fifth round of inter-Palestinian reconciliation talks in Egypt. The fifth and latest round is to cover the issues of elections, the formation of a government and security forces.
* May 16: Results from parliamentary elections for India’s lower house are to be made public.
* May 16-17: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to visit Saudi Arabia. Da Silva is expected to meet with Saudi King Abdullah and discuss a free trade agreement between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Mercosur, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
* May 17: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will resign. Singh is expected to continue as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.
* May 18: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Washington on May 18 to hold talks with U.S. President Barack Obama.
EAST ASIA
* May 18-25: South Korea said it wants to meet with North Korea early next week to discuss a South Korean worker detained in the north, and a joint industrial project that has been troubled by tensions between the sides.
* May 18-25: Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu is likely to visit Beijing and Shanghai later this month, which would make her the highest incumbent official from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ever to visit China.
* May 20: South Korea and Australia have agreed to start talks on forging a free trade agreement. Trade minister Kim Jong-Hoon and his Australian counterpart Simon Crean will announce the start of negotiations during their meeting May 18 in Melbourne.
* May 20: Japan is scheduled to release a quarterly inflation report next week that is likely to signal the start of deflation in Japan.
* May 18-26: Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada ordered two P-3C surveillance planes to assist Japan’s two Maritime Self-Defense Forces destroyers patrolling off the coast of Somalia in their anti-piracy mission.
LATIN AMERICA
* May 16-22: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is making an international tour of Saudi Arabia, China and Turkey. His visit to Saudi Arabia is the first one ever made by a Brazilian head of state, and is scheduled for May 16-17, after which he will fly to China, where he will be accompanied by around 240 Brazilian industrialists. Lula is scheduled to have a working meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao on May 19. On the agenda is a financing deal for Brazilian state oil company Petrobras, reported to be in the range of $10 billion. Petrobras is also seeking to secure deep water oil contracts in China, which recently became Brazil’s top trade partner. Lula is scheduled to land in Turkey on May 21, and is set to meet with Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Prime Minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan and parliamentary leader Koksal Toptan.
* May 22: Venezuela is scheduled to complete its takeover of Banco Santander’s local affiliate, Banco de Venezuela, by May 22. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez did not disclose how much Venezuela would pay for the Spanish-owned bank, but Santander President Emilio Botin has expressed confidence that negotiations will go smoothly.
AFRICA
* May 15-20: United Nations Security Council/Africa: UNSC diplomats will travel to Ethiopia, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Liberia.
* May 19: Malawi: Malawi holds presidential and parliamentary elections.