INTL Georgia Tank Batallion Mutiny's

May 5, 7:10 AM EDT


Georgia's president says an army mutiny near capital is isolated and situation under control

By MISHA DZHINDZHIKHASHVILI
Associated Press Writer

TBILISI, Georgia (AP) -- President Mikhail Saakashvili says a mutiny in a tank battalion based near Georgia's capital is an isolated case and the situation in the country is fully under control.

The defense minister says the base where the mutiny occurred Tuesday has been sealed off.

The mutiny followed an announcement by the Interior Ministry that it had uncovered a Russia-supported plot to overthrow the government and had arrested the suspected organizer.

Saakashvili said in a televised address that the government was taking the mutiny seriously but it was an isolated incident. He said the situation in the country was under control.

The president has been the target of more than three weeks of street protests by opposition demonstrators demanding he resign.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.



TBILISI, Georgia (AP) - A tank battalion mutinied Tuesday at a Georgian military base near the capital and the base has been sealed off, the defense minister said.

The mutiny followed an announcement by the Interior Ministry that it had uncovered a Russia-supported plot to overthrow the government and had arrested the suspected organizer.

Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has been the target of more than three weeks of street protests by opposition demonstrators demanding he resign.

The coup plotters, backed by Russian troops, were planning to disrupt NATO military exercises set to begin Wednesday in Georgia, Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said.

Russia's NATO envoy Dmitri Rogozin was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying the allegations were "crazy."

The tank battalion's commander, Mamuka Gorgishvili, said his soldiers would take no aggressive actions to interfere in the political situation in the country and would remain in the barracks, the Georgian news agency Kavkaz Press reported.

The Interior Ministry's Utiashvili said the suspected coup plot was organized by a former special forces commander, Georgy Gvaladze. Gvaladze and an army officer on active duty have been arrested, the spokesman said.

The Interior Ministry has a video of Gvaladze talking to his supporters about the planned coup, the spokesman said. In the video, Gvaladze is shown saying that 5,000 Russian troops will come to support the coup, which was planned for Thursday, Utiashvili said.

Defense Minister David Sikharulidze said he had been blocked from entering the military base in Mukhrovani, about 20 miles (30 kilometers) from Tbilisi, the capital. The base's tank battalion of about 500 army personnel had announced that they would refuse to follow orders, he said.

Among the mutineers were civilians who had no relation to the battalion, he said.

Opposition leader and former Saakashvili ally Georgy Khaindrava said the reports of the planned coup were made up.

"It's nothing but a tall tale, and we've heard so many of them already," Khaindrava said. "Saakashvili could not make up anything smarter."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GEORGIA_MUTINY?SITE=ILROR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Here we go, folks.

Just in time for the NATO-Georgian military exercise that puts more than a thousand Western troops in harm's way of Russian aggression.

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=331492

http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=331236

NATO took the bait. Saakashvili and company are operating at the behest of the Kremlin to draw NATO into a confrontation with Russia.

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/astrology.htm

What's pathetic is that these silly fools don't recognize they are expendable in executing this plot.

We have the wrong people running our government to handle our aggressive enemies!

They see Minus as weak and inexperienced.

You don’t go from a community organizer (80 working days in the senate is a joke) to Commander and Chief! A spanking is coming!

Tiblisi! Thank goodness, I thought we were talking Ft. Stewart!

FJ

Isn't this just NATO trying to influence Georgia's elections on May 30?

I don't see a big deal coming from this.

amazon said:

Isn't this just NATO trying to influence Georgia's elections on May 30?

Click to expand...

Hm?

rs657 said:

We have the wrong people running our government to handle our aggressive enemies!

They see Minus as weak and inexperienced.

You don’t go from a community organizer (80 working days in the senate is a joke) to Commander and Chief! A spanking is coming!

Click to expand...

Obama

The enemy within!

Maybe our founding fathers faith in "We The People" WAS misplaced.

How can we stop the enemies of God when people are so utterly clueless as to the nature of God's enemies?

FarmerJohn said:

Tiblisi! Thank goodness, I thought we were talking Ft. Stewart!

FJ

Click to expand...

What do you mean "Thank goodness" about U.S. Georgia?

The U.S. NEEDS it's military to turn on the globalist dem/repub bastards betraying the sovereign nation AND the Constitution they've sworn to uphold.

It's probably the only possible remaining hope.

Spirit Of Truth said:

Maybe our founding fathers faith in "We The People" WAS misplaced.

How can we stop the enemies of God when people are so utterly clueless as to the nature of God's enemies?

Click to expand...

BTW, do you understand amazon's comment? He/She doesn't seem to want to answer, and I'm truly curious what was meant...

Posted for fair use....
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav050409.shtml

GEORGIA: SAAKASHVILI ADMINISTRATION PUTS DOWN ALLEGED ANTI-NATO MUTINY
Giorgi Lomsadze 5/05/09

On the eve of controversial May 6 exercises to be held by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Georgian government quickly suppressed a military rebellion that it claims was backed by Moscow. According to officials in Tbilisi, the revolt supposedly aimed to oust President Mikheil Saakashvili from power, and to redirect Georgia’s foreign policy orientation back toward Russia.

The mutiny at the Mukhrovani base, a tank battalion camp roughly 20 kilometers away from Tbilisi, was reported squelched by late afternoon on May 5 after the Ministry of Defense rushed columns of tanks and troops to the scene. Saakashvili said that he had given a one-hour deadline to the rebels to surrender before pro-government forces would open fire.

Seven military officers and 13 civilians have so far been arrested in connection with the abortive uprising.

Mukhrovani commander Colonel Mamuka Gorgiashvili, ex-Ministry of Defense special task force commander Gia Ghvaladze, Maj.-Gen. Koba Kobaladze, a former National Guard commander, and military analyst Vakhtang Maisaia are among the detainees who have been named.

Two chiefs of staff of a regiment stationed at Ortachala, a Tbilisi suburb, are also wanted in connection with the mutiny.

In a televised speech, Saakashvili identified the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) exercises as the key motivation for the plot. Saakashvili also mentioned Georgia’s growing ties with the European Union, as evidenced by its participation in a May 6-8 Prague meeting of the European Council.

The government stated that it learned about the alleged mutiny late in the evening of May 4, after the arrest of former special task forces commander Ghvaladze. In video footage released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ghvaladze was shown discussing the details of the plot with two unseen men.

According to Ghvaladze, 5,000 Russian troops would invade Georgian-controlled territory from the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Near Tbilisi, they would be joined by two Georgian army regiments and together would seize the capital and slay Saakashvili. Russian officials have denied the allegations that Moscow was somehow connected to the rebellion.

Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava, Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili, Deputy Foreign Minister Giga Bokeria, Parliamentary Defense and Security Committee Chairman Givi Targamadze, and Liberty Institute Director Levan Ramishvili, an influential theorist for the 2003 Rose Revolution, would also be killed.

The invading force would then take hold of the presidential administration, general prosecutor’s office, Interior Ministry, and blow up the pro-government Rustavi-2 television station and the central railway station, Ghvaladze claimed.

The ex-commander stated that fresh elections would be held after Saakashvili’s overthrow; the new government, he said, would drop Georgia’s NATO and European integration aspirations, and bring Georgia back to the Moscow-led Commonwealth of Independent States that unites many former Soviet republics.

In a second video recording, Ghvaladze stated that Russia would hand over $2 million -- $3 million for Saakashvili’s overthrow. Mention is also made of 8 million -- 10 million euros.

Ghvaladze claimed that generals who held prominent army posts under ousted President Eduard Shevardnadze and several fugitive officials were involved in the plot. Former Defense Minister David Tevzadze and Former Security Minister Jemal Gakhokidze were also named.

One of the generals implicated by Ghvaladze, Gia Karkarashvili, has since been thanked by the Interior Ministry for his role in preventing the attempt to kill Interior Minister Merabishvili.

Karkarashvili, a supporter of opposition leader Irakli Alasania, gave EurasiaNet a video recording, in which an unnamed man tells him how he was invited to participate in the mutiny. "This is serious. . . . It is really happening," the man said. Karkarashvili and Alasania both declined to answer questions.

In a later interview with Tbilisi’s pro-opposition Kavkasia television, Karkarashvili expressed frustration that the government had not moved earlier to stop the mutineers.

Some opposition leaders indicated that they believe the Interior Ministry staged the mutiny in a bid to prop up Saakashvili’s authority. For almost a month, his administration has been confronted with daily protests seeking his resignation. "Misha [Mikheil Saakashvili] thought that the protests had lost momentum and with his talentless movies, he will now bring even more people into the streets," ex-Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili, leader of the Georgia’s Way party, told a crowd on May 5.

Protestor plans to block roads leading into Tbilisi, though, have since been scuttled.

The opposition protests figured in Saakashvili’s televised speech. The president suggested that the pro-Moscow coup conspirators were seeking to take advantage of the political uncertainty in Tbilisi. "The calculation was that mass arrests or other types of violence would take place in the middle of the Georgian capital and then scenarios would be put into action against Georgia’s sovereignty . . . against Georgia’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration," he said.

Saakashvili and other government officials have previously hinted that Russian financing is somehow supporting the protesters. They have never produced any evidence of a Russian connection, though.

The president insisted that since the opposition protests began in April, his administration has shown restraint, as well as a continuing willingness to engage in dialogue out of a desire "not to give an excuse to our enemy."

"We believe that always, in all situations, dialogue is the solution" Saakashvili added, in apparent reference to recent offers of "dialogue" with the opposition.

Late in the afternoon, Georgian television carried footage of Saakashvili talking to some of the soldiers who had been based at Mukhrovani, but who were apparently no part of the conspiracy. "How could you let these people [mutineers] into your unit?" Saakashvili asked the soldiers, as they stood lined up in front of him outside the base. "I did everything for you and your unit."

Interior Minister Merabishvili also came in for a televised dressing-down. "[Y]ou knew that these people have done nothing good for Georgia," the president fumed at Merabishvili in a Mukhrovani base office in reference to the mutiny’s organizers. "These are people with a criminal mentality and we knew this . . . These people should not have been free for all this time."

"This liberalism has already become dangerous," he continued. "I will no longer tolerate it."

Editor's Note: Giorgi Lomsadze is a freelance reporter based in Tbilisi.

Posted May 5, 2009 © Eurasianet
http://www.eurasianet.org

Posted for fair use....
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0505/p06s12-woeu.html

from the May 05, 2009 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0505/p06s12-woeu.html

Seeing Red: Georgia blames Russia for 'mutiny'
Russia, furious over NATO war games set to begin Wednesday in Georgia, says recent turmoil is evidence of Saakashvili's instability. Armenia withdraws from war games.
By Fred Weir and Correspondent



Moscow

It looked like a recipe for political crisis even before a Georgian tank battalion apparently mutinied on Tuesday:

• Nearly a month of rolling street demonstrations have virtually shut down the central area of the capital, with thousands of protesters daily demanding the resignation of Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili.

• Russian troops have been massing in the past week barely an hour's drive away in South Ossetia.

• NATO-sponsored war games that Moscow furiously opposes are set to begin on Wednesday.

Then came the apparent mutiny Tuesday of Georgian soldiers – a still-murky event that Mr. Saakashvili was quick to blame on a pro-Russian conspiracy inside his country's armed forces. Though Georgian authorities announced that the situation had been brought under control by Tuesday evening, and several former and current military commanders are now under investigation for plotting the alleged rebellion, people in Tbilisi say conditions remain tense.

Russian authorities, who angrily deny any involvement in the plot, insist the turmoil underscores their longstanding claim that Georgia is an unstable entity with an illegitimate leader that should not be playing host to NATO forces. Relations between Moscow and NATO, already at low ebb, appear set to plummet further after NATO grimly announced that the month-long war games, which involve 1,300 troops from 18 countries, will go ahead as planned.

"It's hard to say what will come next," says Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the independent Center for Caucasian Studies in Yerevan, Armenia. "The Russian mood toward Georgia is strained, nervous and irrational. The same can be said for Georgia's attitude to Russia. [Tuesday's] events show there is a chaotic struggle for power inside Georgia, and suggests that Saakashvili's power is not secure."

Late Tuesday, Armenia announced it would be withdrawing from the NATO military exercises. A statement released by the defense ministry of the longtime Russian ally cited "the current situation" for its decision, but offered no further explanation. Kazakhstan and Serbia, also strong allies with Russia, have previously canceled their participation.

Georgia, Moscow blame one another for mutiny

Georgia's Interior Ministry says a 500-man tank battalion stationed at Mukhrovani, about 18 miles from Tbilisi, mutinied on Tuesday in a bid to disrupt the NATO war games. According to Shota Utiashvili, a ministry spokesman, the plotters "were receiving money from Russia, and [their actions] were coordinated with Russia." He adds that a "full-scale mutiny" had been planned by the rebels, but was averted by the authorities' quick action.

In a televised statement, Saakashvili also blamed Moscow and added, "I am asking and demanding from our northern neighbor to refrain from provocations."

However, in a statement quoted by Georgian news agencies, the rebellious battalion's commander, Mamuka Gorgishvili, indicated that his men were merely staging a sit-down strike to protest "the ongoing [political] confrontation" between antigovernment demonstrators and Saakashvili in the streets of Tbilisi. "There will be no aggressive actions on behalf of our tank unit," the statement said. "We are in barracks and we are not going to leave them."

Some Georgian opposition leaders say they doubt there was any military mutiny.

"The authorities are in crisis and we fear Saakashvili might use this situation to declare a state of emergency," says Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia, leader of the "Hope" coalition of opposition groups. After a month of rolling anti-government street rallies in Tbilisi, she says, "Saakashvili wants an excuse to use force against us, to make the population give up on the very idea of protesting."

No thaw in relations between Russia and NATO

Georgian experts offer differing assessments of their meaning.

"This is a continuation of what happened last August," when the Russian army stormed into South Ossetia to defend the breakaway Georgian statelet from an attempt to impose Tbilisi's control by military force, says Alexander Rondeli, president of the independent Foundation for Strategic and Political Studies in Tbilisi. "Our northern neighbor wants to destabilize Georgia, and you can't say it's over or that things will become normal. Russia will never tolerate Georgia's independence."

But Georgi Khutsishvili, chair of the International Center on Conflict and Negotiation in Tbilisi, says there are no "pro-Russian" forces, either among the opposition in Tbilisi's streets or within the Georgian army. "Our authorities are always seeing Moscow's hand in things," he says. "But I cannot imagine that any Georgian army battalion could revolt on Russian orders. I completely exclude this. Whatever happened, it must be explained by internal factors."

Experts say the Kremlin appears increasingly concerned over the damage to Russia's fragile dialogue with NATO, begun with high hopes barely a month ago. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev last week called on the Western alliance to cancel the "shortsighted" war games, and ordered Russian officials not to attend a NATO council meeting slated for Thursday.

Making matters worse, NATO last week expelled two Russian diplomats accused of espionage – one of them the son of Moscow's ambassador to the European Union – a move that drew angry Russian accusations that the Western alliance was returning to cold war-style "gross provocations."

On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that he will not attend a NATO summit in Brussels later this month, where he was to have met US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to protest against the spying allegations.

And in another tension-building development, the Kremlin signed security pacts last Thursday with the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, enabling Russia's FSB security service to take control over the two statelets' borders. Russian border guards, who fall under command of the FSB, began taking up positions along the disputed frontier this week, along with 1,800 fresh Russian troops. Georgia's foreign ministry denounced the moves as "yet another Russian attempt to strengthen the military build-up on Georgia's occupied territories and legitimize the occupation process."

Russian officials insist they are not worried about any military threat posed by the NATO-sponsored military exercises, which were scheduled well before the August war, but feel offended by what they see as a Western effort to bolster Saakashvili even after he authorized the military attack on South Ossetia that killed a dozen Russian peacekeeping troops.

"Western politicians are just closing their eyes to the instability in Georgia, and they just can't accept that Russia might be right about anything," says Sergei Markov, a Duma deputy from the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party.

"It looks to us like NATO just insists on recognizing the legitimacy of Saakashvili, to treat him as if he were a normal politician who behaves normally. It's the position of NATO countries toward us, rather than what's going on in Georgia, that causes us the most concern," he says.

Posted for fair use....
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200...lis_power_play

Georgia: A 'Coup' and Saakashvili's Power Play

May 5, 2009 | 1956 GMT

Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili


Summary
An alleged coup attempt at a Georgian military base May 5 is the perfect occasion for Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to clamp down on the growing opposition in the country and reassert his control. The government initially called the alleged coup a Russian-backed plot; however, it looks more like a tool for Saakashvili to use to quell the protests against his presidency and eliminate dissent in the Georgian military on the eve of NATO military exercises taking place in Georgia.

Analysis
Myriad Georgian opposition figures have accused Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili of using the May 5 alleged coup in Georgia in order to lock down the country, which has been rocked by protests for nearly a month. Details about the “coup” have started to emerge from both the Georgian Interior Ministry and STRATFOR sources in Tbilisi; at this point, the incident looks to be not a Russian-prompted coup, as the government claims, but a possible way for the struggling government to reinstate control over the country.

According to official Georgian Interior Ministry statements, approximately 500 soldiers at the Mukhrovani base between Tbilisi and Gori “mutinied” May 5. The Interior Ministry sent troops and police to the base; no injuries were reported. The Interior Ministry and Saakashvili were quick to call the mutiny a “Russian-backed coup.” However, the accused rebels did not take up arms, making it a rather uninspired coup — especially considering that the “mutineers” were Georgian military special forces — if that is in fact what it was. According to STRATFOR sources in Tbilisi, the rumor is that the soldiers were not dissenting or trying to throw a coup, but rather were nonviolently refusing to take part in the planned NATO military exercises set to begin outside the Mukhrovani base in Vaziani starting May 6.

STRATFOR has chronicled the dissent within the Georgian military for some time, though the issue has been particularly important since the Russo-Georgian war in August 2008. Sources have told STRATFOR that leading up to that war, the Georgian Defense Ministry was firmly against getting into a conflict that would push Russia to counter, and that Saakashvili ordered military commanders into the conflict despite the Defense Ministry’s objections. Quite a few officials within the Georgian defense and foreign ministries were replaced after the war because of their insistence that Saakashvili was responsible for the entire war.

This is a key point, because dissent within the Georgian government and among those who have traditionally been loyal to Saakashvili has started to form a coherent opposition movement that is intent on ousting the president. This anti-Saakashvili movement does not have any other break in policy from the government; it is anti-Russian and pro-Western, but against Saakashvili’s leadership. However, STRATFOR sources and accusations from Saakashvili’s government hint that the opposition is receiving financial and organizational aid from Russia in order to nudge the cause along.

The opposition began mass protests across Georgia on April 9, with 60,000 hitting the streets initially — a large number considering that 90,000 spurred the Rose Revolution in 2003, and that since then any opposition movement has been unable to break the 15,000 participation mark. Since April 9, the protests have continued nearly every day, with numbers of participants ranging from a few hundred to more than 10,000. The protests have also spread out, blocking streets into the capital and targeting multiple government buildings, media outlets and Saakashvili’s homes.

Georgian authorities have been unable to clamp down on the protests thus far, which irritates Saakashvili, who is about to inaugurate NATO military exercises with representatives from 19 countries on Georgian soil. The exercises come as Russia has moved troops into the Georgian secessionist region of South Ossetia. Russia claims to have 3,700 troops in South Ossetia (which is close to where the NATO exercises will take place).

The entire situation in Georgia looks untenable for Saakashvili, which makes the reported coup attempt a great opportunity for the president to reinstate his authority. The accusation of a coup, the mobilization of police and Interior Ministry forces into Mukhrovani and accusations of Russian involvement all came quickly, though there were no reports of the rebellious Georgian troops moving toward Tbilisi or taking up arms at all. But this set of accusations has allowed Saakashvili to clamp down on dissent in the military the day before the NATO exercises begin, and to break up some of the protests against his presidency.

To get to Mukhrovani, the police and Interior Ministry troops used roads that had been blocked by the opposition. After being forced to clear the roads, the opposition said it would be back to barricade the roads in a few days. STRATFOR sources also say the Interior Ministry is considering implementing a state of emergency in reaction to the alleged coup in order to lock down Tbilisi — a move that would definitely halt opposition protests.

But the real sign that Saakashvili saw the suspected coup as a tool to target the opposition is the list of Georgian authorities arrested as “coup” leaders. Two former Soviet-era military commanders were arrested on charges of orchestrating the coup, and the Interior Ministry claims a third is being sought. Former National Guard commander Koba Kobaladze and former special forces commander Gia Gvaladze were arrested; the government also suspects former Defense Minister Davit Tevzadze, former Security Minister Jamal Gakhokidze and Gia Karkarashvili, commander of the army during the Abkhaz War in the 1990s, of involvement. The Interior Ministry charged the former military leaders in conjunction with the supposed coup after a video surfaced that allegedly shows these commanders planning the mutiny and the deaths of Saakashvili and many of his close associates. In the video, the former Georgian commanders also mention that they were working with Russian troops so the Russians could reinvade.

None of these military leaders has been in charge of the military for years (some for more than a decade), though there is a constant concern that they hold more of the military’s loyalty than Saakashvili does. But more importantly, most of these accused military commanders have some sort of connection to the current opposition movement through its leaders Nino Burjanadze and Irakli Alasania. Seizing those within the opposition that have military connections and breaking up a portion of the protests is Saakashvili’s attempt to retake control of his country and send a message to the rest of the opposition, all while the West’s eyes are on the small state during the NATO exercises.

The last time NATO held exercises this large in Georgia was three weeks before the Russo-Georgian war — something that Tbilisi definitely has on its mind. The alleged coup May 5 and the subsequent clampdown on the opposition may just be a move by Saakashvili to rein in one chaotic part of his country while he nervously watches a much larger threat — Russian troops increasing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and a rumored Russian naval buildup in the Black Sea near Georgia — and waits for Moscow’s next move.

I'm curious what happens tomorrow... NATO is still going to have their wargame, and Russia's still pissed.

Posted for fair use....
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4228152,00.html

05.05.2009
NATO denies Georgia war-games agenda

Russian anger simmers as a month of Partnership for Peace (PFP) military exercises featuring NATO states prepares to start in Georgia. But NATO claims that there is no agenda and that Moscow was fully informed.

Around 1,000 soldiers from over a dozen NATO member states and partners are to practice "crisis response" at a Georgian army base east of Tbilisi, around 70 kilometers (44 miles) from the nearest Russian troop positions in South Ossetia.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has responded to what he calls dangerous "muscle-flexing" by sending troops to the border with Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, just days before the start of the two operations; "Cooperative Longbow" - based on a fictitious crisis response operation - and the "Cooperative Lancer" field training exercise.

Moscow retains some 3,800 of its soldiers in each of the two Georgian provinces.

Russian officials state that the decision to bolster its forces on Georgia’s borders was taken long before the maneuvers were announced and was unrelated to Moscow's criticism of the planned exercises, according to a report by the Interfax news agency.

The Russian response has baffled sources at NATO who claim that the month-long maneuvers are not even a NATO mission and that, as part of the Partnership for Peace program, Russia was invited to take part – only to refuse the offer.

The Partnership for Peace was set up in 1994 and is described by NATO as a program of practical bilateral cooperation between individual Partner countries and the alliance. It "allows Partner countries to build up an individual relationship with NATO, choosing their own priorities for cooperation," according to the program's mission statement.

Russia was invited but declined twice, claims NATO

"This is not a NATO exercise," an alliance spokesperson confirmed to Deutsche Welle. "This is a PFP exercise. It's not even an ambitious exercise. It has two parts; a classroom scenario and a live combat exercise but even that is only 400 people, with extra staff bringing it up to 1,000. These exercises have been going on for years and are strictly routine. They're needed because these countries regularly cooperate together. There was a similar one in Armenia last year and frankly no-one took any notice.

"Because it's a PFP exercise, it's open to everybody which also means that everybody was fully informed when it was proposed in late spring of last year," the spokesperson added. "Nobody was forced to participate and Russia chose not to. But they knew exactly what was going on and there was no issue. Even when they said recently that they were concerned about the exercise, we said: 'although the subscription date had passed, why don’t you send some observers?' But they declined that as well. There is nothing controversial from our point of view."

Alexander Rahr, the director of the Russian/Eurasian program at the German Center for Foreign Affairs, believes Russia has every right to be concerned - not from a military point of view but a psychological one.

"Russia does not see these exercises as a military threat," Rahr told Deutsche Welle. "It's purely psychological. Russia thought that after the war last year, Georgia's hopes of joining NATO had been crushed. Now NATO states have their military personnel in Georgia and regardless of what the official line is, it is a signal of support and one which says Georgia has not been forgotten. Moscow is now wondering if NATO is now offering Georgia a route in via the back door, and this reignites their concerns."

Partnership for Peace mission, not a NATO mission?

A press release on the web site of SHAPE (Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe) says the aim of the exercises is to improve "interoperability between NATO and partner countries, within the framework of Partnership for Peace, Mediterranean Dialogue and Istanbul Cooperation Initiative programs."

It adds that these exercises "are part of the NATO Partnership-for-Peace program, allowing partner countries to build up an individual relationship with NATO."

Despite the insistence of NATO that these are multilateral exercises open to all PFP members, observers have criticized the decision to hold the maneuvers in the flashpoint Caucasus region and many have questioned why NATO has chosen Georgia as the location at such a delicate phase in relations with Russia.

NATO and Russia only recently resumed formal contacts which were suspended when the West accused Moscow of a "disproportionate" response to Georgia's assault on separatists in South Ossetia which led to last year’s five-day Caucasus conflict.

NATO rejects claims of provocative measures

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seen, with Georgian flag in the background, at an informal summit meeting of leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States at the Konstantin Palace in Strelna outside St. Petersburg, Russia, Friday, June 6, 2008. Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Medvedev says the exercises are "wrong and dangerous"

NATO has rebuffed claims that the decision to undertake military maneuvers in Georgia is a provocative measure aimed at pushing the boundaries of the newly restored relations.

"There’s no mystery, no secret and no political point," the NATO spokesperson said. "The hot political events took place in August last year and this exercise was scheduled before that. There were lots of countries who offered to host this and a year ago, Georgia volunteered. But it could have been anyone.

"Georgia is not on any blacklist. Georgia is a Partnership for Peace country," he continued. "Frankly, there is no connection, through the scenario or the decision, with Georgia. It could have taken place in Azerbaijan, Albania or the UK…wherever. Georgia just happened at that time to volunteer."

Alexander Rahr believes there is more than pure coincidence behind these exercises taking place in Georgia at this time. "This is a very blunt response by the West," he said. "It is a direct response to Russian military maneuvers in Venezuela and before that in China."

No show of support for Saakashvili or his ambitions

NATO is also keen to reject claims that that the exercises are intended to show the alliance's support for Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who has been the target of weeks of opposition protests in Tbilisi over his record on democracy and the war with Russia, and his NATO membership ambitions.

"No-one should misuse this exercise for any political reason. Nobody should read more into this than there is," the NATO spokesperson concluded. "From our point of view, this is a routine, useful exercise and we don’t really see why there is all this commotion."

Alexander Rahr disagrees. "This is of course very important for Saakashvili and for his NATO ambitions," he said. "Whatever is said, it is a show of support for the Georgian leadership and a huge psychological and political boost for Saakashvili. It has drawn international attention to him again and he will make sure that the Russians see this as a signal from NATO that Georgia has not been forgotten."

Author. Nick Amies

Editor : Chuck Penfold

Posted for fair use....
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13d7b53e-397b-11de-b82d-00144feabdc0.html

Fresh front threatens Saakashvili

By Charles Clover and Isabel Gorst in Moscow and James Blitz in London

Published: May 5 2009 15:07 | Last updated: May 5 2009 15:07

The mutiny near Tbilisi on Tuesday is a reminder that the struggle for power and influence in Georgia could derail relations between Russia and Nato, and raises questions over European hopes that the region will become a secure energy supply route.

Georgia hosts strategic transit pipelines carrying Caspian oil and natural gas exports to the west. It is crucial to energy security in Europe, which is trying to reduce its dependence on Russian supplies.

EDITOR’S CHOICE
Opinion: Lay to rest ghosts of war in the Caucasus - May-04
Why eastern diplomacy requires a careful tailor - May-04
Saakashvili to fight on as Georgia leader - Apr-13
Russia warns on Nato exercises - Apr-21

The mutiny, described by Georgia as an attempted coup, underlines the precarious position of Mikheil Saakashvili, the western-backed president, who many analysts say is unlikely to see out his four-year term.

His credibility was dented beyond repair by last August’s disastrous war with Russia, which he was accused of starting and which resulted in the loss of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Street protests against the president’s rule have become a regular fixture since early April, and while Tuesday’s mutiny was shortlived it demonstrated how opposition to Mr Saakashvili may be spreading throughout the establishment.

Georgian officials said the Russian secret services were behind the plot, which was timed to coincide with the start of Nato military exercises in the country.

Moscow’s interest in seeing Mr Saakashvili leave power is clear, though Russian officials rushed on Tuesday to deny Georgian claims that the Kremlin financed the “coup” attempt.

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s Nato envoy, said the alliance’s refusal to cancel the military exercises would “further provoke Georgia’s downfall and could possibly destabilise the situation in neighbouring regions”.

Andrei Klimov, deputy chairman of the committee for international relations in the state Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, called Tuesday’s events a “show” made for western consumption, which would help Mr Saakashvili distract Georgians from opposition demonstrations that have become a regular fixture in the capital. “This is one of Saakashvili’s tricks. He is a master of such shows,” he said.

Alexander Rondeli, the head of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies in Tbilisi, said the government needed to show evidence supporting its accusations against Russia and the alleged coup’s ringleaders. But it was possible that the uprising was at least partly inspired from Moscow, he added. “Russia is not just sitting on its hands and watching our country.”

The situation in Georgia has put the administration of Barack Obama, US president, in a difficult position. Washington’s support for Mr Saakashvili is a sticking point in an otherwise improving relationship with Moscow, underlined by a cordial meeting between Mr Obama and Dmitry Medvedev the Russian president, in London in April.

The Obama administration insists it wants to “press the reset button” with Moscow. But relations were strained again last week when Moscow signed an agreement that, in effect, took control of the borders of Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a move that the US said was “another step in the wrong direction”.

The military exercises due to take place in Georgia this week by countries involved in Nato’s partnership for peace have also irked Russia, which sees them as a provocative action in a country it regards as under its sphere of influence.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, on Tuesday pulled out of a meeting of the Nato-Russia council. He had been due to attend a meeting of foreign ministers on May 18, intended to cement improved relations between Russia and Nato.

The meeting would have looked at a range of security issues, including co-operation between Russia and Nato on Afghanistan and joint attempts to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia.

Moscow told Nato diplomats that Mr Lavrov’s decision was a response to the defence alliance’s move last week to expel two Russian diplomats in the aftermath of a spying scandal, as well as Nato’s intention to hold military exercises in Georgia.

Mr Obama has little room for diplomatic manoeuvre. His overtures to Russia, along with other traditional enemies of the US, have attracted the ire of the US rightwing. Delaying the Georgia war games would be viewed as a concession to Russia, and might cost Mr Obama politically at home, a Washington-based analyst said.

The US department of defence said the mutiny appeared to be an isolated incident but added it was monitoring the situation. “It doesn’t change our long-term relationship with Georgia,” the Pentagon said.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

Posted for fair use....
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6229551.ece

From The Times
May 6, 2009
Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili claims to have crushed army mutiny
Tony Halpin in Moscow

Georgia claimed yesterday to have put down an army mutiny and foiled a plot to disrupt month-long Nato military exercises due to begin in the country today.

A tank battalion surrendered at an army base outside Tbilisi, the capital, after a stand-off with forces loyal to President Saakashvili.

The Interior Ministry said that the rebellion was part of a wider conspiracy to cause a “full-scale military riot” linked to the Nato exercises. However, it dropped earlier claims that Russia was funding a coup aimed at assassinating Mr Saakashvili.

Officials close to the President told The Times that there was no firm evidence of Russian involvement in yesterday’s events or of any organised attempt at a coup.

Related Links

* Nato accuses Russia of reneging on peace deal

* Georgia’s army is turning on itself

Georgia is hosting three weeks of military exercises under the Nato Partnership for Peace programme. Russia has condemned them as provocative so soon after last August’s war over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Yesterday tanks and armoured personnel carriers were sent to the Mukhrovani base, about 20 miles east of Tbilisi, after David Sikharulidze, the Defence Minister, accused the tank battalion of starting a mutiny aimed at “overthrowing the authorities”.

Shota Utiashvili, an Interior Ministry spokesman, said that the Georgian security service had uncovered a coup plot organised by Gia Ghvaladze, a former special forces commander. He showed an undercover video apparently showing Mr Ghvaladze boasting that 5,000 Russian troops would arrive to aid their coup.

The Interior Ministry said that Mr Ghvaladze had been arrested hours before the rebellion at the base and charged with organising the mutiny. Police were hunting for two other conspirators.

About 500 soldiers surrendered and handed over their weapons when Mr Saakashvili went to the base and warned that he would authorise force if they refused to submit. They were taken to another base for questioning.

“The plan was to have military riots at different places all over Georgia,” Mr Utiashvili said, “to make sure that at the minimum the Nato training will not happen and at the maximum there is a full-scale military riot in the country.” Mr Saakashvili called the mutiny a “serious threat” in a televised address, saying that the “organisers of disorders” were former Georgian military officers with past links to the Russian secret services.

But the Georgian Opposition accused the President of staging a “theatrical show” to rally public support a month after it began a campaign of street protests to demand his resignation. Davit Gamkrelidze, the leader of the opposition New Rights Party, said: “We suspect that conditions are being prepared by the authorities to announe a state of emergency.”

The Russian Interfax news agency had earlier quoted the base commander, Lieutenant-Colonel Mamuka Gorgiashvili, as criticising the authorities for the political crisis in Georgia, saying: “One cannot look calmly at the process of the country falling apart, at the ongoing confrontation.” Georgian television broadcast film last night of Mr Gorgiashvili admitting that he had been asked by organisers of the conspiracy to lead an armoured column into Tbilisi “where people and the Opposition would be waiting for me”.

The Kremlin denied any involvement. Grigori Karasin, the Deputy Foreign Minister, said: “Instead of dialogue inside the country, the Georgian leadership is trying to accuse Russia of totally insane things.” Nato expressed its unease, warning Russia and Georgia not to make political capital out of war games that involve 1,000 troops from member and partner countries.

Carmen Romero, a spokeswoman, said that Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, the Nato Secretary-General, was annoyed by Mr Saakashvili’s description of them. “It is not a Nato exercise, but an exercise of Nato with its partners which Georgia is hosting,” she said.

Amid signs that relations between the alliance and Moscow are slipping back into crisis, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, pulled out of a meeting with Nato counterparts later this month. Moscow said that it was in protest at Nato’s expulsion of two Russian diplomats in a spying scandal last week.
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Posted for fair use....
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6229530.ece

From The Times
May 6, 2009
Georgia’s alleged coup indicates that the army is turning on itself
Tony Halpin: analysis

One fact stands out amid the claim and counter-claim over yesterday’s alleged coup attempt in Georgia. An army is turning on itself in full view of Nato and Russian troops.

This has stark implications. Nato is committed to helping Georgia to become a member of the military alliance despite fierce objections from Moscow. Russia has ignored criticism from America and Europe to put thousands of its soldiers in control of the borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia’s breakaway regions. With a Nato military exercise due to get under way today, the two sides sit uncomfortably close to each other as Georgia undergoes its crisis.

Allegations that Moscow is behind a plot to bring down President Saakashvili remain unproven. They come as he faces the most sustained opposition campaign since he came to power, to force him to resign over the defeat against Russia in last August’s war. The alleged conspiracy and mutiny by a tank battalion have diverted attention from the Opposition and given the Government an opportunity to rally public support. The presence of 1,000 Nato troops in Georgia at the moment that the Russian-inspired plot is revealed also strengthens Mr Saakashvili’s appeal for alliance support against Moscow.

The case for supporters of Mr Saakashvili is that the coup plotters and mutineers underline everything that he has been saying about the Kremlin’s determination to destroy Georgia’s pro-Western democracy after the 2003 Rose Revolution.

Having failed to topple Mr Saakashvili last year, the argument goes, Russia is stirring mutiny within the Georgian Army to finish the job. Yesterday’s events have shown that Georgia remains much more fragile than Mr Saakashvili and his team would like to admit. Political divisions are normal in a democracy, but splits within the military are a recipe for disaster in a country with Georgia’s recent history.

All of this will be music to the Kremlin’s ears. Whether the coup attempt was cooked up in Tbilisi or Moscow, the result is a weakened Georgia and greater nervousness in Nato over the wisdom of extending its security umbrella into the Caucasus.

amazon said:

Isn't this just NATO trying to influence Georgia's elections on May 30?

I don't see a big deal coming from this.

Click to expand...

Sounds more like Russia trying to cause problems. What makes you think NATO?

Kent said:

Sounds more like Russia trying to cause problems. What makes you think NATO?

Click to expand...

I asked this hours ago - no response.

Can't we just have one shite storm at a time, i'm starting to get a headache flicking between all these different situations, theres just not enough hours in the day for posting, reading, researching & posting again,
Maybe we can draw up a rota

TheSearcher said:

I'm curious what happens tomorrow... NATO is still going to have their wargame, and Russia's still pissed.

Click to expand...

2 Exercises, not a large number of participants.

Here's what NATO's Allied Command Operations has to say about Cooperative Longbow 09 and Cooperative Lancer 09.

http://www.nato.int/shape/news/2009/04/090415a.html

15 Apr. 2009 Exercise Cooperative Longbow -
Cooperative Lancer 09

Partnership- For- Peace Exercise In Georgia

MONS, BELGIUM - NATO will conduct exercises Cooperative Longbow 09 – Cooperative Lancer 09 during the period 6 May to 1 June 2009 in Georgia. Planning for these exercises began in spring 2008 with the aim of improving interoperability between NATO and partner countries, within the framework of Partnership for Peace, Mediterranean Dialogue and Istanbul Cooperation Initiative programmes.

Twenty nations will participate: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Canada, Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia1, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and the United States.
Cooperative Longbow 09 is a command post exercise that focuses on training and exercising NATO staff skills and procedures, improving interoperability between NATO and partner nations for crisis response operations at the multinational brigade level. The exercise will be conducted in Tbilisi, Georgia, with approximately 650 personnel from NATO and partner countries being deployed to the Vaziani training area, twenty kilometres east of Tbilisi. The scenario is based on a fictitious United Nations mandated, NATO-led crisis response operation. Lieutenant General Cayetano Mirò Valls, Commander Allied Land Component Command Madrid, will command the exercise.
Cooperative Longbow 09 will be followed by a field training exercise, Cooperative Lancer 09, which is designed to provide basic training on peace support operations at the battalion level, and will take place at Vaziani barracks from 18 may to 01 June 2009. Cooperative Lancer will involve approximately 450 troops.
These exercises are part of the NATO Partnership-for-Peace programme, allowing partner countries to build up an individual relationship with NATO. Cooperation with the partner countries is an integral part of the alliance’s security policy and plays an important role in its day-to-day work. Through its pursuit of cooperation and different forms of partnership with non-member countries, NATO contributes to promote security and stability for the benefit of all.

Posted for fair use....
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090505_estonia_latvia_withdrawing_nato_exercises

Estonia, Latvia: Withdrawing From NATO Exercises
May 5, 2009 | 2121 GMT

VANO SHLAMOV/AFP/Getty Images
A Georgian student holds an Estonian flag during a protest in Moscow in 2007

Summary

Armenian officials said May 5 that the country will not engage in upcoming NATO military drills in Georgia, joining several other countries that have declined to partake in the drills, most notably Latvia and Estonia. The two Baltic countries’ decision raises the question NATO’s effectiveness in protecting its two smallest members.

Analysis

Armenia announced May 5 that it will not take part in the upcoming NATO military exercises scheduled for May 6-June 1 in Georgia. Yerevan’s withdrawal makes it the sixth country to announce its absence from NATO’s drills — which will include more than 1,300 troops from 19 member countries and ally states — in addition to Kazakhstan, Moldova, Serbia, Estonia and Latvia. While most of these countries either hold strong political ties to Russia or are wary of angering Moscow and thus come as no surprise in missing the drills, it is the withdrawal of the two Baltic states — Estonia and Latvia — that is particularly unexpected and noteworthy.

The implications of the Baltic countries’ absence from the NATO exercises is symbolically significant. It shows that the two NATO members are making their own decision to opt out of the drills — exercises that they would normally be thrilled to be a part of to maintain their image as firmly in the Western camp. More importantly, their abstention goes against the idea of NATO providing an unflinching security blanket to all of its members, weakening the unity of the security bloc as well as the perception of NATO by outside powers.

Estonia and Latvia hold some of the most confrontational stances towards Moscow of all European countries. This is largely due to geography, as the two countries sit extremely close to Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg, with no real terrain barriers to invasion and no strategic depth whatsoever. This vulnerability dates back to nearly a century of domination by the Kremlin, when the two states were republics of the former Soviet Union. Ethnically different from their past Russian rulers (Estonia is closely linked to Finland), the Baltics are deeply resentful of having been ruled with a strong hand by Moscow during the Soviet era.


Russia-Perspective
(click image to enlarge)

When the Soviet Union was on the brink of collapse, Estonia and Latvia (along with their Baltic neighbor, Lithuania) were among the first countries to declare independence from Moscow in 1991. In 2004, the two Baltic states joined the European Union and, more significantly in their eyes, NATO (originally designed to counter Russia) to cement their place in the Western camp. The proximity to Russia and Moscow’s traditional dominance over the Baltic region meant that entering into a military alliance with the United States and Western Europe was a key imperative for Latvia and Estonia. Their entry into NATO, however, put the Western alliance at the doorstep of St. Petersburg and was perceived as a threat by the Kremlin, although the only NATO military presence thus far has been a small rotation of fighter jets from allied nations to monitor their airspace.

Latvia and Estonia’s animated opposition to Russian foreign policy is grounded in the very reasonable fear of being dominated by Moscow. Estonia’s population is about 1.3 million people, while Latvia’s is just more than 2 million — not even half the size of St. Petersburg. This fear was only exacerbated by Russia’s war with Georgia in the summer of 2008. Moscow’s resurgence has therefore only reinvigorated the Baltic States’ sense of dread that Russia’s return to prominence could put them in Kremlin’s sights in the very near future.

Membership in NATO is key for Estonia and Latvia because it gives them an actual lever against Moscow in a contest where it seems like the Kremlin holds all the levers on the Baltics. From significant Russian populations residing within their borders to cyberwarfare tactics being deployed in the two countries in 2007, Tallinn and Riga are extremely sensitive to Russian maneuvers, a fact the Kremlin is eager to exploit. Moscow also has started to deploy a force of 8,000 troops along the borders of the two countries as part of its Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) force, specifically meant to counter NATO’s expansion plans.

What the two Baltic countries (Lithuania is held in a slightly different vein, as it does not actually border mainland Russia) did gain with their NATO membership were chances to make mainly symbolic moves against their former master, be it siding with Georgia in the Russo-Georgia war or expressing explicit support for U.S. plans to place ballistic missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. NATO membership, however, has not given much to the Baltic States in terms of concrete security. NATO members all pledge to aid allies in the event of an attack. However, the Baltic states have little else vis-a-vis the threat of Russia. Upholding the principle of alliance unity (and reminding their West European allies that Russia is indeed a threat) is therefore the key Latvian and Estonian foreign policy principle and a core national interest. As such, while the two countries have relatively tiny military forces, they would also participate in the number of NATO drills held every year, mainly out of solidarity with the Western military bloc.

But now even that has changed. Estonia and Latvia have been severely affected by the ongoing economic crisis, with both countries facing double-digit drops in gross domestic product forecast for 2009 (-10.1 percent and -13.1 percent, respectively) as a result of foreign capital flight and exports that are in free fall. Extreme social tension has set in as a result of the harsh economic realities, with both countries witnessing violent protests in January. In the meantime, the Latvian government collapsed early in 2009, and Riga has had to take out a $2.4 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Estonia’s government is set to face a vote of no confidence this week, and a similar loan from the IMF is likely later in 2009.

These conditions have caused Estonia and Latvia to temper their aggressive stance toward Russia. While the two countries are typically vocal and eager to take advantage of Russia’s weaknesses for media attention, they are now backing down as they realize their own positions are weak while Russia’s position is growing stronger. This explains Estonia’s and Latvia’s withdrawal from the NATO exercises, as they realize that their participation would be far more damaging to their relationship with Russia and that their financial situations would make joining in on the drills even more difficult. For these two countries, showing solidarity and support for Georgia makes a great deal of sense in theory (i.e., supporting in principal Georgia’s struggle against Russian influence). But it becomes increasingly hard to justify in practice when Russian influence is being felt in a real sense on their home turf.

During a time of immense security challenges posed by Russia and beyond, perception is key. Moreover, this is not an event that can easily be isolated, as the perception of unity is critical to alliances at all times — and has been a perennial issue for NATO.

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http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20090505_geopolitical_diary_case_georgian_deja_vu

Geopolitical Diary: A Case of Georgian Deja Vu
May 6, 2009 | 0204 GMT
Geopolitical Diary icon

STRATFOR is experiencing a case of deja vu recalling the events that led up to the Russia-Georgia war in August, 2008.

Russia-Georgia tensions escalated yet again on Tuesday as Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili claimed to have “thwarted” an alleged Russian-backed coup from within the Georgian military, and accused Russia of “massing up naval forces and warships in the sea off the coast” — all while Georgia is preparing for large (by Georgian standards) military exercises in conjunction with NATO.

Consider the recent developments:

* Russia has increased its troop presence as of early April inside Georgia’s secessionist regions from 3,000 to over 7,600 — a move similar to when Russia increased its troops from 1,500 to 3,000 three months before the Russia-Georgia war.
* Russia has been accused of building up its naval presence off the coast of Abkhazia — a similar accusation to when Russia was expanding that regions ports in the months before the Russia-Georgia war.
* Georgia and NATO will start the next leg of NATO exercises in Vaziani Wednesday — nearly the same exercises as the ones held at Vaziani three weeks before the Russia-Georgia war.
* Small-arms fire across the South Ossetia-Georgia border resumed in April — similar shooting led to mortar attacks, that pre-empted Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia, instigating the Russia-Georgia war.

But while Russia may be ready for another round — or at least ready to present the illusion of another round in order to pressure the small Caucasus state, there are two other large shifts going on in Georgia creating a new level of pressure that Tbilisi has never before faced.

First, the political chaos in Georgia has reached a pitch not seen since the 2003 Rose Revolution that brought Saakashvili to power. Mass protests plagued the country in early April, and have persisted (albeit in smaller form) to the present. Saakashvili has watched members of his former inner circle dissent and join the traditionally weak opposition. Moreover, the real significance surrounding the alleged coup in the Georgian military shows that Saakshvili cannot rely on support from the military, which blames him for getting the country into the war with Russia.

Typically, internal Georgian politics do not matter, since these affairs have more to do with personalities than shifts in geopolitical alignment towards the West or Russia. But right now, everything that provides opportunities for outsiders to influence Georgia matters, because Georgia is the cornerstone of Russia’s foreign policy agenda toward the West and within the Caucasus. Georgia is Russia’s Achilles Heel in reestablishing the old Soviet sphere of influence and a geographic buffer around Russia to protect it from other global powers.

But Georgia’s relevance as that cornerstone is currently being tested, as the rest of the Caucasus dynamics are shifting for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union. A key member of NATO, Turkey, has set its sights on normalizing relations with Armenia—Georgia’s small southern neighbor. The Turkey-Armenia dynamic has the three small states in the Caucasus — Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia itself — reevaluating their allegiances to NATO and Russia. Armenia, a Russian ally, is negotiating with Turkey; Azerbaijan, Turkey’s brother nation, is turning to Russia; and Turkey is balancing its relationship with all parties involved. Should Russia hold Armenia, balance Turkey and reconnect with Azerbaijan, then Moscow will not need to worry about what happens to Georgia, for it will be locked into the Soviet sphere by default.

This brings us full circle to the initial deja vu of the Russia-Georgia situation — Moscow once again dominating Tbilisi. All the circumstances on the outside look like August 2008, but as STRATFOR looks deeper, Georgia is facing two other large, destabilizing trends. Georgia has never been a stable country, and has traditionally faced a problem from either Russia, internal domestic political tension, or its Caucasus neighbors — but never has Tbilisi faced all three at once. The redefinition of Georgia is taking place and Tbilisi can only watch as it role in the region is remade by forces largely outside of its control.